WW IV – Isreali Strategy (July – Sept 2006)
The major consideration in any Israeli strategy is their small drawdown capacity . The nation and territory is small . It cannot soak up a first punch and counterattack like the US or Russia . From political realities , it means it has to do pre-emptive attacks just before the aggressors (Arabs , Muslims) make their attacks . This nearly led to disaster in the Yom Kippur war of 1973 , when the much vaunted Mossad was caught completely off guard by no less than three separate armies’ surprise attacks .
The US Bush’s approval rating for the Iraq war is 30% - 40 % This means that 60% – 70% of people in the US are against it . (2006)
This means that there is a very high probability that the US will withdraw troops from Iraq after 2008 . This will create a power vacuum that will be competed for by China , Russia , India . Most likely China , since it does not have the ideological baggage Russia and India have in the region .(Iran will try for a look-in , but China or India are both willing and able to flood the empty spaces of Iraq . The probability favours China (with Kurd surrogates) , since they have already done it successfully in Outer Mongolia , the Western Provinces of China , and Tibet . ) Russia simply does not have the manpower any more , and India will face very steep resistance from Pakistan .
The stark reality facing Israel , is that none of these nations has any special relationship with them . Their main ally , the US , can survive without Middle-East oil in a pinch , but will become distinctly second-rate to China if the US loses the oil to China . But the US will not go to a war of mutual destruction over the loss of the Middle East Oilfields .
US-USSR conflict was WW III (Also known as the Cold War.)
WW IV
Define conflict between US-Russia-EU-Japan-China-India as WW IV.
Notice that there are 3! = 6 nations . See why this is stable in “Conspiracies” in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Ha! The next stability point is with 24 nations . Can this continue without an annihilation war? Maybe there is a paradigm for proceeding from stability point to stability point . 1 , 2 , 6, 24 , 168 , … , r! . We can only hope .
Notice the beauty of the Chinese population aggression algorithm !
Chinese couples inside China are subject to the one-child law . But outside China they can have as many children as local laws allow .
The most aggressive , innovative and entrepreneurial people emigrate and the breed to their capacity of support systems outside China . Beautiful !
The Chinese are family orientated . So the capital generated by restricting family-size (ie instead of rearing 1+5 children , the money spent on the 5 children is capital that can be invested) . Spread over 1 Billion people it powered the Chinese economic miracle . But many of these people want more children . So the most venturesome emigrate with some capital from their families . You can see where this leads to .
Chinese everywhere.
So , learn Chinese .
What distinguishes this from the previous population-explosion of the English-speaking peoples during the 18-19th centuries was that there was no enforced limitation on the number children in the home countries . but the child mortality was high .
Israel has a short term solution of starting a general war , with a nuclear resolution , or making a 6-pointed deal between US-Russia-EU-Japan-China-India . This balance is stable , and can be spun on and on .
Andre
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
Friday, July 21, 2006
Conspiracies
Conspiracies.
See previous http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
A conspiracy is by definition where information flows are blocked .
Consider n real persons /systems .
First , let information flow in only one direction due to secrecy. Thus , the number of information flows (nPr) in a cell of r elements is the permutations in the group
nPr = n(n-1)(n-2)…(n-r+1)
But in a conspiracy , there is backward flow of information in cell of r people , since no conspiracy can function without some input of information . Thus , regardless of how it is organized , the number of information flows in a cell where there is feedback is
nCr = nPr / (r!)
At first , it seems paradoxical that nCr < nPr . It means that a feedback cell is more secure than a one-way transmission (since there are fewer sources of error) . But if there are multiple transmissions over the same routes , errors would be detected earlier in the nCr network than over the one-way nPr network .
Now examine Large networks ( large values of n like nations , political parties , etc)
The variable r can then always take values 0 ,1,2,3,…
This gives the expansion :
2^n = nC0 + nC1 + nC2 + nC3 + …nC(n)
= nC0 + nP1/(1!) + nP2/(2!)+ nP3/(3!) +…
What does this mean?
The easiest way is to see the effect of the interactions of three persons A,B,C .
2^3 = 3C0 + 3C1 + 3C2 + 3C3 expansion for 3
= 1 + 3 + 3 + 1
The combinations are:
3C0 = no person involved . (1 interactions)
3C1 = A , B ,C (3 interactions)
3C2 = AB , BC , AC (3 interactions)
3C3 = ABC (1 interactions)
What does
“3C0 = no person involved . (1 interactions)” mean?
It translates into what humans call the essence of the group .
Humans call it the morals , the society , the religion , the company , science ,
the gods . The immaterial component of human society . Virtual persons .
Note that the above equations describe , by definition , all possible on-off information blockages between identifiable elements .
This means that any system that has any information blockage at all , will have an immaterial component . Blockage here is defined as identifiableness . For something to be identifiable , it needs to have either a natural boundary , or a defined boundary . Since defined boundaries need an observer of some sort , defined physics has a cultural aspect .
It also means that any system with pronounced differentiations ( like race , class , birth , wealth ) , will have some fundamentalist immaterial justifications . This will be true of any society ( human , alien ,AI )
Stability points for societies with limited communication :
r ! : The number of ways information can flow in a group of r .
The series is
0! , 1! , 2! , 3! , 4! , 5! , etc .
0! : The culture
1! : 1 ruler
2! : 2 parties
3! : 6 parties .
4! : 24 parties .
etc
Conspiracy Central.
Because the number of possible conspiracies so far outstrip the number of individuals involved , there would be seem to be an evolutionary niche for a co-ordinating Conspiracy Central .
Alas , as seen above , this role has already been taken over by Culture / Religion .
There are so many conspiracies , that they choke each other .
Some interpretations see personalities as cultural centers in the multifarious brain complex .
This ties in with
Open Conspiracies.
Open Conspiracies are ones which anyone can join at a low level . Advancement in the hierarchy depends on performance . Most companies and old religions fall into this category . Just about all conspiracies these days are open conspiracies . Political parties , religions , unions, guilds .
They just don’t make conspiracies like the used to .
The most vulnerable points of any conspiracy (or hierarchical system) are
at 1/e , 1/e^2 , 1/e^3 , etc . in the gap from the bottom to the top of the hierarchical structure .
These are points where small chaotic influences can insinuate themselves .
If you want to change yourself or others , don’t start at the top or the bottom Start 37% from the bottom .
Andre
See previous http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
A conspiracy is by definition where information flows are blocked .
Consider n real persons /systems .
First , let information flow in only one direction due to secrecy. Thus , the number of information flows (nPr) in a cell of r elements is the permutations in the group
nPr = n(n-1)(n-2)…(n-r+1)
But in a conspiracy , there is backward flow of information in cell of r people , since no conspiracy can function without some input of information . Thus , regardless of how it is organized , the number of information flows in a cell where there is feedback is
nCr = nPr / (r!)
At first , it seems paradoxical that nCr < nPr . It means that a feedback cell is more secure than a one-way transmission (since there are fewer sources of error) . But if there are multiple transmissions over the same routes , errors would be detected earlier in the nCr network than over the one-way nPr network .
Now examine Large networks ( large values of n like nations , political parties , etc)
The variable r can then always take values 0 ,1,2,3,…
This gives the expansion :
2^n = nC0 + nC1 + nC2 + nC3 + …nC(n)
= nC0 + nP1/(1!) + nP2/(2!)+ nP3/(3!) +…
What does this mean?
The easiest way is to see the effect of the interactions of three persons A,B,C .
2^3 = 3C0 + 3C1 + 3C2 + 3C3 expansion for 3
= 1 + 3 + 3 + 1
The combinations are:
3C0 = no person involved . (1 interactions)
3C1 = A , B ,C (3 interactions)
3C2 = AB , BC , AC (3 interactions)
3C3 = ABC (1 interactions)
What does
“3C0 = no person involved . (1 interactions)” mean?
It translates into what humans call the essence of the group .
Humans call it the morals , the society , the religion , the company , science ,
the gods . The immaterial component of human society . Virtual persons .
Note that the above equations describe , by definition , all possible on-off information blockages between identifiable elements .
This means that any system that has any information blockage at all , will have an immaterial component . Blockage here is defined as identifiableness . For something to be identifiable , it needs to have either a natural boundary , or a defined boundary . Since defined boundaries need an observer of some sort , defined physics has a cultural aspect .
It also means that any system with pronounced differentiations ( like race , class , birth , wealth ) , will have some fundamentalist immaterial justifications . This will be true of any society ( human , alien ,AI )
Stability points for societies with limited communication :
r ! : The number of ways information can flow in a group of r .
The series is
0! , 1! , 2! , 3! , 4! , 5! , etc .
0! : The culture
1! : 1 ruler
2! : 2 parties
3! : 6 parties .
4! : 24 parties .
etc
Conspiracy Central.
Because the number of possible conspiracies so far outstrip the number of individuals involved , there would be seem to be an evolutionary niche for a co-ordinating Conspiracy Central .
Alas , as seen above , this role has already been taken over by Culture / Religion .
There are so many conspiracies , that they choke each other .
Some interpretations see personalities as cultural centers in the multifarious brain complex .
This ties in with
Open Conspiracies.
Open Conspiracies are ones which anyone can join at a low level . Advancement in the hierarchy depends on performance . Most companies and old religions fall into this category . Just about all conspiracies these days are open conspiracies . Political parties , religions , unions, guilds .
They just don’t make conspiracies like the used to .
The most vulnerable points of any conspiracy (or hierarchical system) are
at 1/e , 1/e^2 , 1/e^3 , etc . in the gap from the bottom to the top of the hierarchical structure .
These are points where small chaotic influences can insinuate themselves .
If you want to change yourself or others , don’t start at the top or the bottom Start 37% from the bottom .
Andre
Wednesday, July 05, 2006
The External Gut and
The External Gut and Lungs
Humans use external containers to break down complex molecules into simple molecules that can easily be absorbed or further digested (with low energy cost) by the human gut .
The processes used are
1.Cutting or grinding (knives , grinders , else to be done by teeth)
2.Heat ( boiling , frying , roasting , baking)
3.Fermentation ( enzymes) . Bacteria and fungi act as external symbiotes in special containers in a similar fashion as in the human gut .
4. Combinations of above .
Note that all require technology of some sort : fire or manufactured containers , as well as a definite recipe .
The effects of heat are well known , except for sub-chronic acrylamide poisoning
(See previous “Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy and Acrylamide 2” in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com )
Fermentation is widely used , but its consequences are not always fully realised .
Pure Fermentation (without heat ).
The best known one is , of course , bread rising and wine .
The intriguing thing is that some foods prepared by fermentation should be lethal , but are not . For example , raw fish is kept in a container for up to a year and is still edible , whilst biological activity (fermentation) is taking place .
Examples of salted fish :
Nam Pla : Thai fish sauce ( similar to Roman Garum ) , padek (Laos) , bagoong (Philippines) , lutefish ( Norway) .
Examples of salted vegetables :
Sauerkraut (Europe ) , Kimchi (Korea)
In the above examples , the saline concentration is not high enough to inhibit all biological activity . Fermentation takes place , but it seems that no lethal toxins are produced in an essentially anaerobic environment . But it smells bad (especially the sulfur rich fish ) .
This means a relatively high H2S concentration . ( Anaerobic fermentation should produce H2S) .
Protein breakdown continues , but the H2S slows down production-tempo of quorum signaling messengers for pathogenic producers below the threshold where the lethality-genes will switch-on . ( The messenger molecules must have a limited lifespan , else the organism will soon be in permanent quorum : ie be dismantled pdq .)
See Training the Immune System. http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Additionally , anaerobic organisms originally evolved in a low-salt environment (before the seas became salty ) . While they might have evolved tolerance for higher saline concentration , a sudden jump to a higher level of salinity requires new mechanisms , while a jump to a lower level of salinity simply means activating old , existing mechanisms .
A high initial saline concentration thus provides a bias against initial pathogens in the external gut container . The ratio of good vs bad cannot remain stable . The good fermentation organisms out-compete the pathogenic ones , as the pathogenic ones are inhibited by H2S induced slowdown . (Eg why is human blood salty?)
The recipe then seems to be:
Salt (not too much) + food with some sulfur content + covered with water -> edible by human food a year plus on .
No starter cultures are normally used , but of course they would speed the process .
A different recipe is for yoghurt , cheese , etc . Here the initial bias is given by the antibiotics inherent in mammalian milk . Starter cultures are used , as the bias effect is not as strong as with salt .
Note that sulfur is the critical element .
The advantages of an External Gut
Acidity , materials input , temperature , etc can be precisely controlled . The whole food industry can be described as an external gut , and the whole human race hanging from its teats like 6.5 billion mewling rats . Efficiency can be optimized on the known factors . Large numbers can eat well .
The disadvantages of an External Gut
But the unknown factors…
Quick poisons (like arsenic in the water , etc) can be handled quickly .
Slow poisons like lead might have an impact , but not too big .
The leveraged unrecognized poisons in the external gut can have consequences difficult to reverse .
The systems the body has where this is of concern is the learning systems : ie where a small input can make a big difference .
The human body has three : the spiritual (not considered here) , the nervous system and the immune system .
The immune system:
One of the main methods by which the immune systems kills deviant cells is by an injection of hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) . The fragments of hypochlorous acid mark the fragments of target cells as enemies to the immune system .
Containers of the external gut (pots pans ,etc) washed with dishwashers usually contain traces of bleach (since the 1950’s). These few million molecules kill many cells previously recognized as good by the immune system and a few bad cells . But the good cells have already been recognized as good . (The system does not work in serial processing fashion : the millions of good cells are not even seen (latched on ) by the immune system , but the few bad ones are . This sharpens the immune response .
The problem is immature immune systems-like babies and small infants . The immune system has not learned that many good guys . It is inclined to learn the wrong lesson . It treats exactly those dirt molecules marked by the bleach derivatives as targets .
Hence the growth of asthma and similar immune diseases .
Can the immune system unlearn ?
Evolutionary speaking , it does not look too rosy . Change in the environment is usually slow , so there is no evolutionary pressure to unlearn mistakes . It is cheaper to let the organism die and let the descendants adapt .
So we must look at epigenetic factors . These are the only ones that can cause a rapid enough change within an organism’s lifetime .
The mechanisms might be there , but they will have to be driven ( ie they will not occur naturally .) Somebody will have to deliberately set up the system .
Resetting the immune system molecule by molecule is one way , but seems awfully tedious .
The logic is : “if A , then B” , but we want “if A then C” .
We can’t unlearn “if A , then B” , but we can slow it down and substitute , speed up and emphasise “if A then C”. The occurrences of “if A , then B” then decreases to the vanishing point in the dynamic system . Note that speed here is important .
We know how to slow things up (80 ppm H2S) .
We know how to speed things up (80 ppm CH4).
We know that the body system is anabolic .( ie few suicides , many cancers . Cancer can be seen as an unsuccessful attempt to live forever , in a rather unstructured way .)
So we know that the system has sophisticated feedback systems regarding differential metabolic rates . Even gross drivers like fluctuating H2S and CH4 concentrations will cause first-order adaptations in anabolism .
In other words , just breathing H2S-CH4 in succession will sharpen responses at a cellular level .
The system will be sensitive to neural effects . Wishing or willing will cause physiological cascades that the process will pick up and amplify .
Have fun
Andre
Humans use external containers to break down complex molecules into simple molecules that can easily be absorbed or further digested (with low energy cost) by the human gut .
The processes used are
1.Cutting or grinding (knives , grinders , else to be done by teeth)
2.Heat ( boiling , frying , roasting , baking)
3.Fermentation ( enzymes) . Bacteria and fungi act as external symbiotes in special containers in a similar fashion as in the human gut .
4. Combinations of above .
Note that all require technology of some sort : fire or manufactured containers , as well as a definite recipe .
The effects of heat are well known , except for sub-chronic acrylamide poisoning
(See previous “Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy and Acrylamide 2” in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com )
Fermentation is widely used , but its consequences are not always fully realised .
Pure Fermentation (without heat ).
The best known one is , of course , bread rising and wine .
The intriguing thing is that some foods prepared by fermentation should be lethal , but are not . For example , raw fish is kept in a container for up to a year and is still edible , whilst biological activity (fermentation) is taking place .
Examples of salted fish :
Nam Pla : Thai fish sauce ( similar to Roman Garum ) , padek (Laos) , bagoong (Philippines) , lutefish ( Norway) .
Examples of salted vegetables :
Sauerkraut (Europe ) , Kimchi (Korea)
In the above examples , the saline concentration is not high enough to inhibit all biological activity . Fermentation takes place , but it seems that no lethal toxins are produced in an essentially anaerobic environment . But it smells bad (especially the sulfur rich fish ) .
This means a relatively high H2S concentration . ( Anaerobic fermentation should produce H2S) .
Protein breakdown continues , but the H2S slows down production-tempo of quorum signaling messengers for pathogenic producers below the threshold where the lethality-genes will switch-on . ( The messenger molecules must have a limited lifespan , else the organism will soon be in permanent quorum : ie be dismantled pdq .)
See Training the Immune System. http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Additionally , anaerobic organisms originally evolved in a low-salt environment (before the seas became salty ) . While they might have evolved tolerance for higher saline concentration , a sudden jump to a higher level of salinity requires new mechanisms , while a jump to a lower level of salinity simply means activating old , existing mechanisms .
A high initial saline concentration thus provides a bias against initial pathogens in the external gut container . The ratio of good vs bad cannot remain stable . The good fermentation organisms out-compete the pathogenic ones , as the pathogenic ones are inhibited by H2S induced slowdown . (Eg why is human blood salty?)
The recipe then seems to be:
Salt (not too much) + food with some sulfur content + covered with water -> edible by human food a year plus on .
No starter cultures are normally used , but of course they would speed the process .
A different recipe is for yoghurt , cheese , etc . Here the initial bias is given by the antibiotics inherent in mammalian milk . Starter cultures are used , as the bias effect is not as strong as with salt .
Note that sulfur is the critical element .
The advantages of an External Gut
Acidity , materials input , temperature , etc can be precisely controlled . The whole food industry can be described as an external gut , and the whole human race hanging from its teats like 6.5 billion mewling rats . Efficiency can be optimized on the known factors . Large numbers can eat well .
The disadvantages of an External Gut
But the unknown factors…
Quick poisons (like arsenic in the water , etc) can be handled quickly .
Slow poisons like lead might have an impact , but not too big .
The leveraged unrecognized poisons in the external gut can have consequences difficult to reverse .
The systems the body has where this is of concern is the learning systems : ie where a small input can make a big difference .
The human body has three : the spiritual (not considered here) , the nervous system and the immune system .
The immune system:
One of the main methods by which the immune systems kills deviant cells is by an injection of hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) . The fragments of hypochlorous acid mark the fragments of target cells as enemies to the immune system .
Containers of the external gut (pots pans ,etc) washed with dishwashers usually contain traces of bleach (since the 1950’s). These few million molecules kill many cells previously recognized as good by the immune system and a few bad cells . But the good cells have already been recognized as good . (The system does not work in serial processing fashion : the millions of good cells are not even seen (latched on ) by the immune system , but the few bad ones are . This sharpens the immune response .
The problem is immature immune systems-like babies and small infants . The immune system has not learned that many good guys . It is inclined to learn the wrong lesson . It treats exactly those dirt molecules marked by the bleach derivatives as targets .
Hence the growth of asthma and similar immune diseases .
Can the immune system unlearn ?
Evolutionary speaking , it does not look too rosy . Change in the environment is usually slow , so there is no evolutionary pressure to unlearn mistakes . It is cheaper to let the organism die and let the descendants adapt .
So we must look at epigenetic factors . These are the only ones that can cause a rapid enough change within an organism’s lifetime .
The mechanisms might be there , but they will have to be driven ( ie they will not occur naturally .) Somebody will have to deliberately set up the system .
Resetting the immune system molecule by molecule is one way , but seems awfully tedious .
The logic is : “if A , then B” , but we want “if A then C” .
We can’t unlearn “if A , then B” , but we can slow it down and substitute , speed up and emphasise “if A then C”. The occurrences of “if A , then B” then decreases to the vanishing point in the dynamic system . Note that speed here is important .
We know how to slow things up (80 ppm H2S) .
We know how to speed things up (80 ppm CH4).
We know that the body system is anabolic .( ie few suicides , many cancers . Cancer can be seen as an unsuccessful attempt to live forever , in a rather unstructured way .)
So we know that the system has sophisticated feedback systems regarding differential metabolic rates . Even gross drivers like fluctuating H2S and CH4 concentrations will cause first-order adaptations in anabolism .
In other words , just breathing H2S-CH4 in succession will sharpen responses at a cellular level .
The system will be sensitive to neural effects . Wishing or willing will cause physiological cascades that the process will pick up and amplify .
Have fun
Andre