Flamenco Combat
Andre Willers
28 March 2008
Flamenco Dancing as a Combat style .
Stochastic resonance of the rapid foot-taps , combined with the fingertip-pressure feedback of the castanets ensures a very good realization of the body image .
Note that the very rapid foot-taps are so quick that nervous impulses do not have time to travel up and down the spine . In other words , local rhythm nervous networks in the feet do all the work . Together with fingertip pressure (castanets) , this activates very old body-image networks . (As discussed before)
Evaluation of this is equally ancient . A flamenco dancer who is better than his opponent , does not have to fight . His opponent realizes immediately that he is outclassed . This is the perfect fighting style .
The style evolved in India , and was transmitted by the Gypsies . The Spanish took it up for the same reason the gypsies did : it is a method of settling disputes between insanely aggressive males without bloodshed . It became formalized , but a good flamenco dancer will still kick the bejasus out one not so good (or slice him to ribbons) . Note that fingertip knife-control is built into the dance .
A hominin who can outdance his opponent on a shaky bough obviates the costly alternative of actual combat . Hence the in-your-face aggression of flamenco dancing . It is dance of dominance and submission . And the dominance-submission is established very quickly , within the first 5 taps . The evaluation mechanisms are very old and sophisticated .
Note the dominance of movie tap-dancers like Fred Astaire until cutting-room techniques became good enough to edit out the dominance . But also why tap-dancing was (and is) still required for a stage career . The sense of the body-image on the stage is essential .
Karate , kung-fu and related methods have a watered down versions of stochastic resonance on the feet . But no correlation with hand movements .
It is ironic to note that a Flamenco Combat Dancer is the only hominin who could best a chimpanzee in unarmed combat .
Refer to my previous posts about finger- and toe tapping . Flamenco dancing does it all and should be recommended for all wanna-be combat artists , as well as old folk who do not want to fall over .
It is also ideal therapy for diabetics , especially those with peripheral neuropathic feet problems . The independent tapping of the feet would not only increase blood supply , but ladder local nerves to bypass long-nerve neuropathic damage .
The Ultimate Combat System .
A subject of long debate .
But suppose we find such a system . Like lethal diseases , it would soon evolve into milder forms , or it will die out . The devolution would be into mock-combat forms . Flamenco dancing would only be one of these subsets . And a requirement is that it must be able to beat a hominin (like a chimpanzee) .
Flamenco dancers danced with the bulls at Knossos .
Hence the tambourines . (See the frescoes)
Some remnants can still be seen in bullfights , where the toreador taps his foot .
But why women dancers ?
Male-male led to insane dominance fights . Male-female ameliorated the effect . (Ask any night-club bouncer) .
But a human male beating a hominin would be equivalent to a woman beating a man . Females kept the system alive . Note tambourines , which is a fingertapping system . Hence , in a male-female flamenco dance , the female is the dominant one , never mind what it looks like .
The Ultimate Combat System .
This can now be re-assembled , because of fire-arms . (The lethality is relatively less)
Combine flamenco dancing with kung-fu and aikido for an approximation of the original Indian system . An actual case where the ancients were really better !
Andre
Friday, March 28, 2008
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Origin of the Rule of Law
Origin of The Rule of Law
Andre Willers
22 march 2008
Definition:
The Rule of Law is that there at least some Laws(Rules) which bind everybody , even the rulers and the enforcers of law .
The Law of a Third .
(As described by Caesar and Tacitus .)
When a Celtic tribe or group of tribes became overpopulated , they gathered and divided into three equal parts . This division was by individual choice .
The leaders and shamans then decided by lot (chance ) which group had to leave for fresh territories .
Once the lot had been cast , nobody was allowed to change group . The Rule was inflexible , applicable from the lowest to the highest . Everybody knew the Rule , thus could not be changed by interpretation or appeal .
Otherwise , it would not have worked . ( People emigrate into a hostile environment only if they have no choice .)
And work it did .
It has been traced back to the collapse the Bronze Age Civilization . The peoples of Central Europe (like the Unetice) , the Urnsfield cultures leading to the Hallstadt Iron age all faced the same problem . Better technology and farming practices increased their wealth and population , but they were hemmed in by population groups at near-parity as far as warfare techniques were concerned .
So , expansion by gradual population pressure was a no-no , especially against the remnants of the old Bronze-Age Empires . So they sent forth a third of their number in a combination of invasion force and volke-wanderung . These were the waves (then also known as Gauls or Germans by the Romans) that swept over North-Western Europe to Ireland and to the East as far as Armenia . They nearly conquered the Italian peninsula as well .
Even as late as 105 BC Marius had his work cut out to massacre an invasion force of about half-million at Six Springs near Marseille . Caesar treacherously massacred another tribal group on the Rhine , also about half a million strong .
Future groups (about one every 50 years according to the climatic and historical evidence) decided that the Roman nut was too hard to crack . So they struck out eastward in search of Lebensraum .
Plus-la-change . Later they would return , as the Hun Confederacy .
Population Control .
The Romans were not sitting on their hands either .
Augustus knew that uncontrolled population growth would lead to wars of expansion , thus larger armies and rebellious generals . Civil wars and fragmentation of the state would be inevitable (as did happen) . Maybe he had some Chinese help (see previous posts) .
The Romans had a workable herbal general contraceptive (Sulphicium) which originated in North Africa . Augustus classified it as a state resource , eradicated it in the wild (to maintain control) and cultivated it on high-security state latifundia . This was then added to the state-controlled water supply . (All those fancy aqueducts) .
The low Roman birthrate has been ascribed to lead poisoning , but the poisonous effect of lead had been known since Egyptian times . Lead was usually only used in non-acidic environment (like water plumbing) , where it had no effect .
The one proof is the ripple effect on the population figures : Italy’s population remained steady at about 7 million from 1AD to 200AD . This was the heyday of the Roman Empire (Source : Atlas of World Population History by McEvedy and Jones p106 , the primary source for this type of figures.) . The population of the whole Roman empire only increased from 50 million to 55 million .
This beggars belief .
In equivalent circumstances , the English-speaking peoples doubled their population every 15-20 years .
This was during a time of peace and plentiful food . Even the Antonine plagues could not have had this effect unless another factor was present . Remember , low birth rates affected poor people too , who used ceramic utensils .
But everybody used water from the public fountains .
Another is the Roman Catholic Church’s attitude to contraception . It goes back to those days .
They inherited this dirty little secret when they took over the Roman State . They destroyed the farms and set up laws not to allow it again . These laws ossified .
But at the time they dare not let it out , as the mobs would have destroyed the water supply on which all depended .
There was one part of the Roman Empire where the population figures did not change from 1 AD to about 800 AD . The Netherlands and Belgium/Luxembourg (about 3 million each ) . There was no massive depopulation after the collapse of the Western Roman Empire , but for a further 200 years after the collapse , the population did not increase either . This suggests that they continued to cultivate Sulphicium , and probably still do . (Note their skill at bulbs) . Their population figures remain at suspiciously small slopes until 1800 AD (note : other countries’ population slopes start rising at 1700 AD)
This goes a long way to explain Roman Catholic hostility to these countries and their support of Protestantism . By this time , the Roman Catholic Meme had frozen on the center of it’s attractor basin : keep the masses poor via overpopulation , leach out the smart kernels of revolt via schools and the confessional , with an aristocracy as armed back-up . Something similar happened to Islam . In the West , though , the Black Death broke the meme .
The Dutch has to join the Old Kingdom Egyptians as a group that figured out a way to run a modern , zero-growth , sustainable civilization . So , it can be done .
Note that Egypt probably used Sulphicium as a population control , but after the eradication of the plant in North Africa (and presumably Egypt) , Egyptian population rose from 4 million in 1 AD to 5 million in 200 AD . The Egyptian peasants drank water from the Nile , not aquaducts . But the cities did .
Some other advantages to The Law of a Third .
1, It did not depend on literacy ( usually the big problem with illiterate legal systems).
2, The chosen third could not renege , as two-thirds were standing by to kick them out.
3, Nobody was exempt . The essence of the Rule of Law .
Note that the Greeks and Romans did not have a concept of Law applicable to everyone . The Emperor was a God , and thus defined Law (a-la-Nietzche) . Even the Republic had the concept of Dictator (only for emergencies , y’know) who was above the law . The Greeks had the concept of Dictatorship of the Masses (general democracy) .
Anybody in the Celtic third lotted to go had to go , and no weaseling out either .
This discouraged dynasties and inherited wealth .This led to the Western idea of representative democracy and no fixed leadership . No big cities with arts and culture parasites formed . But technology remained an individual effort , highly prized and innovative . But small . Smiths .
Serious R&D needs above all dissemination of ideas (like an University) , supported by some general fee structure . War production of armour , weapons and professional soldiers needs a state with taxes . This is where the Romans wiped everybody . A Roman soldier’s armour cost about a years earnings of a skilled artisan . Training him took about 2 years , during which he was totally unproductive . The logistics to supply him (food , etc) could only be run by a state with a tax based on general economic activity , not on loot . Garrison troops do not even gather loot . Which is why Augustus strictly limited the number of legions . As long as the state is prosperous and can afford the taxes , then there is Pax Romana . When the money dries up , there is a silent coup and the Army takes over the State . As happened in the late Roman Empire .
A healthy system would break up into sustainable pieces ( as some emperors tried to do) , but the Army would not allow it . You then have an Army with a state . An unsustainable state .
4, Why a third?
I refer to http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes”
The optimum reserve for any system is about a third of its value . In essence , the society is “swarming” , sending out its reserve .
The fascinating question is how does it know it is time , and how and who decides ?
This has direct relevance in today’s overpopulated world .
The quorum mechanism in bacteria springs to mind . Mind-altering bacteria and viruses abound . Bacteria uses two different biochemical signaling systems to switch on lethal genes .
Humans have an analogue system , called media . With the Celts it would be troubadours , poets etc . If they started espousing the glories of combat to the exclusion of everything else , the canny shaman would know it is time to hive off .
Unfortunately , today there is nowhere to go that is not defended . But some areas are less defended than others . The same situation as in 200 BC .
So , the solution would be to hive off a third of the planetary population (about 2 billion) to the future , and the remaining 4 billion kill themselves off in the orgy of violence they all crave . This fits in with the estimated casualties of a general conflict (see previous posts)
One way of looking at it is that bacteria are cultivating certain species to unsustainable levels , then harvesting them .
So , when population densities are low , everybody is lovey-dovey . As densities grow , conflict increases until a threshold is reached and insensate violence breaks out . Sounds familiar ? The only civilizations that last are the ones that control their numbers . This is not just ecological , but inherent in the nature of humans as composite beings .
We can interrupt this bacterial dialogue leading to the sociological lethality switch-on.
From this viewpoint , every slave-cellar in Roman latifundiae and every slave-ship from Africa to the Confederate American States pumped its load of quorum violence markers into the population .
Hence the present desperate need to get away , to have refuge away from all humans .
Get away from the genetic markers activating stress-inducing aggressive responses .
Ie hiking , holiday homes , safaris . Unluckily , humans drag others along . They do not get rid of their problems , they just select some .
Bah!
Tell everybody to F*** Off and do a Greta Garbo . It is the only way to keep your sanity (literally) .
Can we mimic this technologically ?
Yes .
UVB will break down the biochemical markers . ( It is not magic , you know , or telepathy. ) A simple bare room with UV lights (commercially available) . Preferally a stone sitting place . Switch on the UV for about an hour before you go in . Needless to say , do not expose yourself to the UV . An air ionizer would be a good idea .
Remember auto-infection . You carry and generate these markers .
Initially , zap the room with UV , go in for about 10 minutes (long-term neural exponentiating period .) Go out and zap the room with UV (half-hour or less depending on the strength of the UV lamps . The markers would have evolved to resistance to sunlight UV , so the lamps would have to stronger than that .
Go back in after UV has been switched off .
Repeat.
Doing this a number of times should be the equivalent of a two-week holiday away from any human . The number of times would depend on your stress levels .
Air-fresheners :
These have been developed specifically to lock onto molecules like the markers we are talking about . The markers evolved from pheromones , which is a scent-type molecule . A goodly percentage of them should be inactivated by something like “Oust” .
So , if you have a panic attack , go into an enclosed loo , whip out your can of air-freshener and spray .
Note that tobacco smoke plays a similar agglutinative effect . Hence its popularity in neutralizing depression or aggression pheromone markers . And they thought nicotine was the active ingredient !
Smoke-filled caves and huts .
An open fire where the smoke veers has the same effect . One of the reasons of the popularity of open-air braais . Note that a proper barbecue chimney where the smoke cannot get in your eyes does not have the same effect .
Churchill’s cigars and the smoke-filled backroom are legendary . What is not realized is that they are essential .
African or Celtic huts with a smoke-filled interior was thus essential to civilization .Likewise air-pollution in moderate degree for big cities . It is ironic to note that if they put smoke-pots in London , the crime rate will drop .
South African crime rates increased dramatically when they electrified the townships and the wood-smoke haze disappeared ..
Andre
Andre Willers
22 march 2008
Definition:
The Rule of Law is that there at least some Laws(Rules) which bind everybody , even the rulers and the enforcers of law .
The Law of a Third .
(As described by Caesar and Tacitus .)
When a Celtic tribe or group of tribes became overpopulated , they gathered and divided into three equal parts . This division was by individual choice .
The leaders and shamans then decided by lot (chance ) which group had to leave for fresh territories .
Once the lot had been cast , nobody was allowed to change group . The Rule was inflexible , applicable from the lowest to the highest . Everybody knew the Rule , thus could not be changed by interpretation or appeal .
Otherwise , it would not have worked . ( People emigrate into a hostile environment only if they have no choice .)
And work it did .
It has been traced back to the collapse the Bronze Age Civilization . The peoples of Central Europe (like the Unetice) , the Urnsfield cultures leading to the Hallstadt Iron age all faced the same problem . Better technology and farming practices increased their wealth and population , but they were hemmed in by population groups at near-parity as far as warfare techniques were concerned .
So , expansion by gradual population pressure was a no-no , especially against the remnants of the old Bronze-Age Empires . So they sent forth a third of their number in a combination of invasion force and volke-wanderung . These were the waves (then also known as Gauls or Germans by the Romans) that swept over North-Western Europe to Ireland and to the East as far as Armenia . They nearly conquered the Italian peninsula as well .
Even as late as 105 BC Marius had his work cut out to massacre an invasion force of about half-million at Six Springs near Marseille . Caesar treacherously massacred another tribal group on the Rhine , also about half a million strong .
Future groups (about one every 50 years according to the climatic and historical evidence) decided that the Roman nut was too hard to crack . So they struck out eastward in search of Lebensraum .
Plus-la-change . Later they would return , as the Hun Confederacy .
Population Control .
The Romans were not sitting on their hands either .
Augustus knew that uncontrolled population growth would lead to wars of expansion , thus larger armies and rebellious generals . Civil wars and fragmentation of the state would be inevitable (as did happen) . Maybe he had some Chinese help (see previous posts) .
The Romans had a workable herbal general contraceptive (Sulphicium) which originated in North Africa . Augustus classified it as a state resource , eradicated it in the wild (to maintain control) and cultivated it on high-security state latifundia . This was then added to the state-controlled water supply . (All those fancy aqueducts) .
The low Roman birthrate has been ascribed to lead poisoning , but the poisonous effect of lead had been known since Egyptian times . Lead was usually only used in non-acidic environment (like water plumbing) , where it had no effect .
The one proof is the ripple effect on the population figures : Italy’s population remained steady at about 7 million from 1AD to 200AD . This was the heyday of the Roman Empire (Source : Atlas of World Population History by McEvedy and Jones p106 , the primary source for this type of figures.) . The population of the whole Roman empire only increased from 50 million to 55 million .
This beggars belief .
In equivalent circumstances , the English-speaking peoples doubled their population every 15-20 years .
This was during a time of peace and plentiful food . Even the Antonine plagues could not have had this effect unless another factor was present . Remember , low birth rates affected poor people too , who used ceramic utensils .
But everybody used water from the public fountains .
Another is the Roman Catholic Church’s attitude to contraception . It goes back to those days .
They inherited this dirty little secret when they took over the Roman State . They destroyed the farms and set up laws not to allow it again . These laws ossified .
But at the time they dare not let it out , as the mobs would have destroyed the water supply on which all depended .
There was one part of the Roman Empire where the population figures did not change from 1 AD to about 800 AD . The Netherlands and Belgium/Luxembourg (about 3 million each ) . There was no massive depopulation after the collapse of the Western Roman Empire , but for a further 200 years after the collapse , the population did not increase either . This suggests that they continued to cultivate Sulphicium , and probably still do . (Note their skill at bulbs) . Their population figures remain at suspiciously small slopes until 1800 AD (note : other countries’ population slopes start rising at 1700 AD)
This goes a long way to explain Roman Catholic hostility to these countries and their support of Protestantism . By this time , the Roman Catholic Meme had frozen on the center of it’s attractor basin : keep the masses poor via overpopulation , leach out the smart kernels of revolt via schools and the confessional , with an aristocracy as armed back-up . Something similar happened to Islam . In the West , though , the Black Death broke the meme .
The Dutch has to join the Old Kingdom Egyptians as a group that figured out a way to run a modern , zero-growth , sustainable civilization . So , it can be done .
Note that Egypt probably used Sulphicium as a population control , but after the eradication of the plant in North Africa (and presumably Egypt) , Egyptian population rose from 4 million in 1 AD to 5 million in 200 AD . The Egyptian peasants drank water from the Nile , not aquaducts . But the cities did .
Some other advantages to The Law of a Third .
1, It did not depend on literacy ( usually the big problem with illiterate legal systems).
2, The chosen third could not renege , as two-thirds were standing by to kick them out.
3, Nobody was exempt . The essence of the Rule of Law .
Note that the Greeks and Romans did not have a concept of Law applicable to everyone . The Emperor was a God , and thus defined Law (a-la-Nietzche) . Even the Republic had the concept of Dictator (only for emergencies , y’know) who was above the law . The Greeks had the concept of Dictatorship of the Masses (general democracy) .
Anybody in the Celtic third lotted to go had to go , and no weaseling out either .
This discouraged dynasties and inherited wealth .This led to the Western idea of representative democracy and no fixed leadership . No big cities with arts and culture parasites formed . But technology remained an individual effort , highly prized and innovative . But small . Smiths .
Serious R&D needs above all dissemination of ideas (like an University) , supported by some general fee structure . War production of armour , weapons and professional soldiers needs a state with taxes . This is where the Romans wiped everybody . A Roman soldier’s armour cost about a years earnings of a skilled artisan . Training him took about 2 years , during which he was totally unproductive . The logistics to supply him (food , etc) could only be run by a state with a tax based on general economic activity , not on loot . Garrison troops do not even gather loot . Which is why Augustus strictly limited the number of legions . As long as the state is prosperous and can afford the taxes , then there is Pax Romana . When the money dries up , there is a silent coup and the Army takes over the State . As happened in the late Roman Empire .
A healthy system would break up into sustainable pieces ( as some emperors tried to do) , but the Army would not allow it . You then have an Army with a state . An unsustainable state .
4, Why a third?
I refer to http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes”
The optimum reserve for any system is about a third of its value . In essence , the society is “swarming” , sending out its reserve .
The fascinating question is how does it know it is time , and how and who decides ?
This has direct relevance in today’s overpopulated world .
The quorum mechanism in bacteria springs to mind . Mind-altering bacteria and viruses abound . Bacteria uses two different biochemical signaling systems to switch on lethal genes .
Humans have an analogue system , called media . With the Celts it would be troubadours , poets etc . If they started espousing the glories of combat to the exclusion of everything else , the canny shaman would know it is time to hive off .
Unfortunately , today there is nowhere to go that is not defended . But some areas are less defended than others . The same situation as in 200 BC .
So , the solution would be to hive off a third of the planetary population (about 2 billion) to the future , and the remaining 4 billion kill themselves off in the orgy of violence they all crave . This fits in with the estimated casualties of a general conflict (see previous posts)
One way of looking at it is that bacteria are cultivating certain species to unsustainable levels , then harvesting them .
So , when population densities are low , everybody is lovey-dovey . As densities grow , conflict increases until a threshold is reached and insensate violence breaks out . Sounds familiar ? The only civilizations that last are the ones that control their numbers . This is not just ecological , but inherent in the nature of humans as composite beings .
We can interrupt this bacterial dialogue leading to the sociological lethality switch-on.
From this viewpoint , every slave-cellar in Roman latifundiae and every slave-ship from Africa to the Confederate American States pumped its load of quorum violence markers into the population .
Hence the present desperate need to get away , to have refuge away from all humans .
Get away from the genetic markers activating stress-inducing aggressive responses .
Ie hiking , holiday homes , safaris . Unluckily , humans drag others along . They do not get rid of their problems , they just select some .
Bah!
Tell everybody to F*** Off and do a Greta Garbo . It is the only way to keep your sanity (literally) .
Can we mimic this technologically ?
Yes .
UVB will break down the biochemical markers . ( It is not magic , you know , or telepathy. ) A simple bare room with UV lights (commercially available) . Preferally a stone sitting place . Switch on the UV for about an hour before you go in . Needless to say , do not expose yourself to the UV . An air ionizer would be a good idea .
Remember auto-infection . You carry and generate these markers .
Initially , zap the room with UV , go in for about 10 minutes (long-term neural exponentiating period .) Go out and zap the room with UV (half-hour or less depending on the strength of the UV lamps . The markers would have evolved to resistance to sunlight UV , so the lamps would have to stronger than that .
Go back in after UV has been switched off .
Repeat.
Doing this a number of times should be the equivalent of a two-week holiday away from any human . The number of times would depend on your stress levels .
Air-fresheners :
These have been developed specifically to lock onto molecules like the markers we are talking about . The markers evolved from pheromones , which is a scent-type molecule . A goodly percentage of them should be inactivated by something like “Oust” .
So , if you have a panic attack , go into an enclosed loo , whip out your can of air-freshener and spray .
Note that tobacco smoke plays a similar agglutinative effect . Hence its popularity in neutralizing depression or aggression pheromone markers . And they thought nicotine was the active ingredient !
Smoke-filled caves and huts .
An open fire where the smoke veers has the same effect . One of the reasons of the popularity of open-air braais . Note that a proper barbecue chimney where the smoke cannot get in your eyes does not have the same effect .
Churchill’s cigars and the smoke-filled backroom are legendary . What is not realized is that they are essential .
African or Celtic huts with a smoke-filled interior was thus essential to civilization .Likewise air-pollution in moderate degree for big cities . It is ironic to note that if they put smoke-pots in London , the crime rate will drop .
South African crime rates increased dramatically when they electrified the townships and the wood-smoke haze disappeared ..
Andre
Mongols of the Serengeti
Mongols of the Serengeti
Andre Willers
27 March 2008
An Alternate History .
In our timeline:
Mongke , the last Mongol kha-khan died in 1259 . Hulagu , his brother and grandson of Chingis Khan had just conquered Baghdad and Damascus . A large portion of Hulagu’s army was withdrawn for the succession fighting . Nevertheless , Hulagu pressed on . His much reduced force was stopped ( a draw) at Ayn Jalut (Goliath’s Spring ) , near Nazareth . Names redolent with myth .
This was without a doubt one of the critical battles of recent history .
Consider what would have happened if Hulagu had won at Ayn Julat .
Alternate timeline:
The Mongols conquer Egypt .
Christians and Shi’ite muslims are not exterminated in the near-east .
Crusaders are invited in as surrogate troops .
The Ottoman Empire never arises .
Constantinople does not fall (well , not to the Muslims , but nearly certainly to the Mongols .)
Mongol exploration sorties discover the plains of Africa . A Mongol paradise . Endless grasslands , teeming with game . The only opposition has no horses or compound bows .
The Khanate of Serengeti would soon stretch from the highlands of Kenya to the Karoo of South Africa . (The central plains of Southern Africa are almost identical to the Mongolian steppes .)
Raw materials such as gold (known since biblical days ) , iron (even earlier) and diamonds were available in abundance .
And game , game , game , such as no Mongolian lord could dream of . All the adventurous young men of the Mongol Empire would flock to Africa to make their fortune .
The Mongols had no use for unskilled slave-labour and no qualms about genocide . Replacement of local blacks by eastern and middle-eastern slave labour seems unavoidable (it nearly happened under the British in our time-line)
The Khanate of Serengeti would have evolved into the Sultanate of Serengeti , as the various regions of the mongol empire degenerated (as happened)
The religion would have been Muslim . All previous Mongol dominated areas eventually became Muslim in our timeline , and there is no reason to think it would be any different in this timeline . The major difference would be that it would be more tolerant , as the majority muslims would be Shi’ites , some Christians and Mongols being the overlords .
What about Europe ? The Knights-and-Castles defence would have seen off the northern Mongols (like it did the Ottomans in our timeline) . But a Sultanate with Africa’s resources and Chinese know-how is a different proposition .
But consolidating in Africa would have taken time . Events there would have little effect on events in China except weaken them , as their best emigrates . By 1620 AD , Admiral Hu’s fleet would still be on its way . But now it will not stop , but launch an invasion of the Sultanate of Serengeti .
Western European states by this time would be hard-pressed by aggressive pressure from North-Africa . Constantinople would probably have fallen to the Serengeti Sultanate . The Mongols were much better at adopting technology than the arabs were .
Most of the East would be Chinese , as the Middle Kingdom expands the middle . Lines of warfare would be the coastal regions of the Med basin .
The Americas . Many more Amerindians would survive . Infectious diseases were the main depopulation agents in the Americas . Sad to say , while Western states might not have actively abetted this , they definitely did not do their best and only counter , even today , namely quarantine . But this would be old hat to Mongols . After all , bubonic plague originated with the eastern asian marmosets . Cortez and Pizarro would have been in competition with Mongols at the courts of the local rulers . The Americas would have been a quadrangular theatre of conflict : The Chinese from the West , the Western Europeans and Serengeti Caliphate from the East and the Amerindians in the center .
It is delicious to think that in this timeline the EU and Chinese are contesting the Serengeti Sultanate for the Texas oil-fields .
Would science be as advanced by 2008 AD ? Yes , probably even more so in technology . As long as the Western European states had some autonomy , the wellsprings of innovation would flow . Sadly , in our timeline this has nearly dried up due to the demise of the independence of universities . When they did away with tenure , they killed the goose that laid the golden eggs .
Draka’s : would the Serengeti Sultanate be analogue drakas? No , the population is too diverse , the territory too large and there are too few Mongols . The only known example where this has been attempted with some success( Japan) , ended in tears as the system could not compete with freedom-systems .
Any central command system cannot compete with local autonomy . This has been proven over and over again in history . But still humans do not learn . The moan is always : but what mix ? What portion local control , what central ? Yet this answer has always been known . The maximum you can risk are your reserves . And this is about a third . See previous arguments about “Infinite Probes” . The killer is that humans do not re-evaluate the third after a big success . They try to keep the gains , and wonder why it all crumbles . It is because they are then risking more than a third of the new dispensation .
Would this timeline be better than our own ? Yes . The continual conflict would have necessitated greater efficiency . Maximization of efficiency is not achieved by size (except in special cases like steel production , etc) . Food production is a good example . The most efficient food production was in the 18th century in Europe and Asia . Efficiency being measured by the ratio of energy in to energy out . Factors of about 30 were achieved , compared to present day factors of about 2 to 3)
In our timeline , population growth without check (ie exponential) was driven by two factors: Cheap food from the plains of Americas and Europe , driven by subsidised cheap energy (oil) and medical advice and techniques to more primitive peoples that did not include contraception . It is like giving unlimited sweets to children . And now it is stomach-ache time .
The Serengeti Sultanate timeline might have fought a number of nuclear conflicts , but at least they would have a large presence in space . The population would have been much lower and social mobility better .
Social mobility outside the upper middle classes in the west is just about nil in our timeline . And it is about to get much worse as the implications of globalization works its way through the system . The middle class is being squeezed out of existence . The present mortgage crisis in the US is but a symptom . Analogous to the Roman peasants being forced off their land while they were off fighting .
It is my considered opinion that (in our timeline) the US system is approaching a paroxysm equivalent to the French or Russian revolutions .
History does not repeat itself , but it rhymes . The concentration of capital , a legal system that allows a minor entity to be sued into oblivion and legislature that is dominated by lobby-groups has made everybody either very rich (a tiny minority) , or working for somebody else . The middle class has been destroyed , even though most people in the US will describe themselves thus . Yet , they are one or two paychecks away from being homeless . It is these homeless that will lead the revolution . Like the Romans never called any Caesar “Rex” , they will not call it Communist . But it will be . One of those ironies of history . That Russia becomes capitalist , and America Communist . If not this , then the Union will fragment into three . Sic transit Gloria .
Without the Pax Americana , small states will have to resort to nuclear weapons for survival . Then bio . It is doubtful any humans will survive . This timeline will pinch out .
Oh well .
Andre
Andre Willers
27 March 2008
An Alternate History .
In our timeline:
Mongke , the last Mongol kha-khan died in 1259 . Hulagu , his brother and grandson of Chingis Khan had just conquered Baghdad and Damascus . A large portion of Hulagu’s army was withdrawn for the succession fighting . Nevertheless , Hulagu pressed on . His much reduced force was stopped ( a draw) at Ayn Jalut (Goliath’s Spring ) , near Nazareth . Names redolent with myth .
This was without a doubt one of the critical battles of recent history .
Consider what would have happened if Hulagu had won at Ayn Julat .
Alternate timeline:
The Mongols conquer Egypt .
Christians and Shi’ite muslims are not exterminated in the near-east .
Crusaders are invited in as surrogate troops .
The Ottoman Empire never arises .
Constantinople does not fall (well , not to the Muslims , but nearly certainly to the Mongols .)
Mongol exploration sorties discover the plains of Africa . A Mongol paradise . Endless grasslands , teeming with game . The only opposition has no horses or compound bows .
The Khanate of Serengeti would soon stretch from the highlands of Kenya to the Karoo of South Africa . (The central plains of Southern Africa are almost identical to the Mongolian steppes .)
Raw materials such as gold (known since biblical days ) , iron (even earlier) and diamonds were available in abundance .
And game , game , game , such as no Mongolian lord could dream of . All the adventurous young men of the Mongol Empire would flock to Africa to make their fortune .
The Mongols had no use for unskilled slave-labour and no qualms about genocide . Replacement of local blacks by eastern and middle-eastern slave labour seems unavoidable (it nearly happened under the British in our time-line)
The Khanate of Serengeti would have evolved into the Sultanate of Serengeti , as the various regions of the mongol empire degenerated (as happened)
The religion would have been Muslim . All previous Mongol dominated areas eventually became Muslim in our timeline , and there is no reason to think it would be any different in this timeline . The major difference would be that it would be more tolerant , as the majority muslims would be Shi’ites , some Christians and Mongols being the overlords .
What about Europe ? The Knights-and-Castles defence would have seen off the northern Mongols (like it did the Ottomans in our timeline) . But a Sultanate with Africa’s resources and Chinese know-how is a different proposition .
But consolidating in Africa would have taken time . Events there would have little effect on events in China except weaken them , as their best emigrates . By 1620 AD , Admiral Hu’s fleet would still be on its way . But now it will not stop , but launch an invasion of the Sultanate of Serengeti .
Western European states by this time would be hard-pressed by aggressive pressure from North-Africa . Constantinople would probably have fallen to the Serengeti Sultanate . The Mongols were much better at adopting technology than the arabs were .
Most of the East would be Chinese , as the Middle Kingdom expands the middle . Lines of warfare would be the coastal regions of the Med basin .
The Americas . Many more Amerindians would survive . Infectious diseases were the main depopulation agents in the Americas . Sad to say , while Western states might not have actively abetted this , they definitely did not do their best and only counter , even today , namely quarantine . But this would be old hat to Mongols . After all , bubonic plague originated with the eastern asian marmosets . Cortez and Pizarro would have been in competition with Mongols at the courts of the local rulers . The Americas would have been a quadrangular theatre of conflict : The Chinese from the West , the Western Europeans and Serengeti Caliphate from the East and the Amerindians in the center .
It is delicious to think that in this timeline the EU and Chinese are contesting the Serengeti Sultanate for the Texas oil-fields .
Would science be as advanced by 2008 AD ? Yes , probably even more so in technology . As long as the Western European states had some autonomy , the wellsprings of innovation would flow . Sadly , in our timeline this has nearly dried up due to the demise of the independence of universities . When they did away with tenure , they killed the goose that laid the golden eggs .
Draka’s : would the Serengeti Sultanate be analogue drakas? No , the population is too diverse , the territory too large and there are too few Mongols . The only known example where this has been attempted with some success( Japan) , ended in tears as the system could not compete with freedom-systems .
Any central command system cannot compete with local autonomy . This has been proven over and over again in history . But still humans do not learn . The moan is always : but what mix ? What portion local control , what central ? Yet this answer has always been known . The maximum you can risk are your reserves . And this is about a third . See previous arguments about “Infinite Probes” . The killer is that humans do not re-evaluate the third after a big success . They try to keep the gains , and wonder why it all crumbles . It is because they are then risking more than a third of the new dispensation .
Would this timeline be better than our own ? Yes . The continual conflict would have necessitated greater efficiency . Maximization of efficiency is not achieved by size (except in special cases like steel production , etc) . Food production is a good example . The most efficient food production was in the 18th century in Europe and Asia . Efficiency being measured by the ratio of energy in to energy out . Factors of about 30 were achieved , compared to present day factors of about 2 to 3)
In our timeline , population growth without check (ie exponential) was driven by two factors: Cheap food from the plains of Americas and Europe , driven by subsidised cheap energy (oil) and medical advice and techniques to more primitive peoples that did not include contraception . It is like giving unlimited sweets to children . And now it is stomach-ache time .
The Serengeti Sultanate timeline might have fought a number of nuclear conflicts , but at least they would have a large presence in space . The population would have been much lower and social mobility better .
Social mobility outside the upper middle classes in the west is just about nil in our timeline . And it is about to get much worse as the implications of globalization works its way through the system . The middle class is being squeezed out of existence . The present mortgage crisis in the US is but a symptom . Analogous to the Roman peasants being forced off their land while they were off fighting .
It is my considered opinion that (in our timeline) the US system is approaching a paroxysm equivalent to the French or Russian revolutions .
History does not repeat itself , but it rhymes . The concentration of capital , a legal system that allows a minor entity to be sued into oblivion and legislature that is dominated by lobby-groups has made everybody either very rich (a tiny minority) , or working for somebody else . The middle class has been destroyed , even though most people in the US will describe themselves thus . Yet , they are one or two paychecks away from being homeless . It is these homeless that will lead the revolution . Like the Romans never called any Caesar “Rex” , they will not call it Communist . But it will be . One of those ironies of history . That Russia becomes capitalist , and America Communist . If not this , then the Union will fragment into three . Sic transit Gloria .
Without the Pax Americana , small states will have to resort to nuclear weapons for survival . Then bio . It is doubtful any humans will survive . This timeline will pinch out .
Oh well .
Andre
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Amphorae – Roman Containerization
Amphorae – Roman Containerization
Johan and Andre Willers
19 March 2008
Synopsis:
Roman ships and stevedoring was standardized to use large amphorae as containers .
When the containers were cheap to manufacture , they were smashed at the destination and used as reinforcing in Roman concrete constructions (cf Roman houses . ) The rough curvilinear shape of amphorae fragments in a concrete matrix gives a better compression-strength than steel reinforcing .
It was the lack of commercially viable lifts that limited the height of Roman apartments , not the strength of materials . (Cf walk-up flats in New York circa 1800’s)
Discussion:
Literally millions of tones of olive oil , grain , wine , garum , cement , metals (small iron ingots ) , charcoal etc was shipped in the late Republican and Empire period . The Globalization period of Rome . Equally , millions of tons of amphorae .
Production specialized in the regions most suitable for a certain product .
Olive oil : Iberia , North Africa .
Grain : Egypt and North Africa .
Wine : Italy and France .
Garum : initially everywhere , but later on the Lowlands of Holland .
Cement from Egypt and Italy .
Metals and charcoal were strategic materials for manufacturing weapons and armour . Initially the smithies and armouries were in Italy , but later in the Empire shifted them to the northern provinces of Gaul . This was closer to the iron deposits in Germany and still available forests for charcoal . But charcoal was still imported on a large scale to the cities of the Roman Empire for fuel .
Amphorae : where the right clay and sufficient fuel (wood) was available . Like aluminium in modern times , or charcoal in any time , ceramics is condensed energy . An amphora transported from North Africa to Rome represented a certain amount of wood burnt .
For instance , Italian hills were deforested to plant vines as the most profitable cash-crop (on the latifundiae). This wine was exported at a huge mark-up . Charcoal was then imported . Hence the deforestation of North Africa , Levant , Turkey and France .
Note the effect on history : with the collapse of the Western Roman Empire circa 500 – 600 AD , wine-trading routes to the West collapsed , mainly due to piracy . Byzantium kept the eastern trade routes relatively pirate-free . Desperate wine-producers in Italy dumped their wine in the Middle East , especially Arabia . This flood of cheap wine caused a wave of drunkenness in the Middle-East , resulting in Mohammed’s stricture against “the fruit of the vine” . Beer and kumiss were not affected , as the low alcohol concentration was essential as sterilization agent of water.
Alcohol Concentrations .
Wine can be made to about 14% alcohol per volume . Strong beer is about 5% . Medieval beer and wine was about 2%-3% . A modern spirit with a mixer (25 ml spirit with 175 ml mixer) is about 6% alcohol .A wine drinker imbibes a drink that is 2 to 3 times as potent as that of a spirit drinker .
Hence the Symposium Master that controlled the mixing of wine and water in a krater in ancient Greece . Only barbarians drank wine neat .
Humans can drink 2% alcohol solutions indefinitely .Indeed , present stress-management techniques recommend some alcohol .
Over 1 500 years of rigorous selection in the West might have made alcohol de-rigeur on a neuronal level .
Forget Prozac ! Drink 1% – 2% watered wine .
Dosage :
Very little . 1% of 200 ml (a glass) is 2 ml . At 50% alcohol concentration , this means that about a teaspoonful(5 ml or 10 drops) of vodka per glass will give about 1.25 % alcohol concentration . This will get metabolized almost immediately , but not before tripping some neurochemical switches . Serotonin and dopamine springs to mind . Remember the evolutionary background . Western genetic neuronal systems have evolved to get antsy if there are no alcohol switches being activated . The amount of alcohol does not matter , but the transient concentration does .
Now do you see why so many patent medicines in alcohol solutions have been so effective for anxiety .
In medieval times , western Europeans who did not drink mild beer died of water-borne diseases . Note the uneven distribution of alcohol-tolerance genes between East and West . The East had tea for thousands of years . This required boiling of water , giving a measure of protection against water-borne diseases .
One would expect this from evolutionary grounds , since there is no reason for homonins to develop a tolerance of alcohol ( a systemic poison) in the wild state .
Ho! Ho! Ho!
Some commentators have advanced the theory that the caffeine stimulation of coffee and tea led to the advances of the industrial revolution in the west . It seems more likely that reduction in alcohol intake plus the better nutrition from grain previously used for brewing would have a bigger effect . This last effect is not negligible . To produce a 2% alcohol beer , about 15% – 20 % of the grain/barley crop would be needed . This would have had significant effect on child nutrition and subsequent brain development .
Not to mention the civilization-wide withdrawal effect !
The Hubbert effect.
Hubbert was an American oil-man who used his technique to predict the peak of US oil production . He did his prediction in the early 1950’s . He predicted a peak in 1972.
This happened . The methodology has been extrapolated to any non-renewable resource .
Essentially , you graph annual production (y-axis) against sum of production-to-date (x-axis) .
For oil and coal this has given a straight-line graph over periods of about 150 years . In other words , a fair degree of confidence in the extrapolation of the straight line .
It means that easily exploitable deposits are used first , then more difficult and costly and so forth until it becomes too difficult and costly to continue . It seems to be insensitive to any technological advances .
The essential point is that any finite resource in the ancient world had to follow this pattern . The clay to make amphorae was one such resource .
The Romans used this resource as if there was no tomorrow .Eventually , the easy resources were exhausted and only a few places manufactured increasingly expensive amphorae . Eventually they ran out . When the trading routes broke down , charcoal could not be imported anymore to fire the amphora kilns . The workers dispersed and the skills were lost and never re-established .
Barrels replaced amphorae , but they could never replace amphorae , since they were expensive , difficult to make and of limited storage .
The Garum Catastrophe .
Garum was a fermented fish sauce that contained essential fats and amino-acids normally found in meat . Normal Romans ate very little meat . But with the disappearance of amphorae , garum disappeared . (Oak barrels gave a funny taste and let in oxygen ) . Only the Dutch persevered , (eg “garing”) , eventually evolving into the herring trade . But that took a whopping 600 years .
The effect was deficiency diseases on top of all the other disasters .
Note the Roman Catholic fishy Friday attempt to compensate .
Andre
Johan and Andre Willers
19 March 2008
Synopsis:
Roman ships and stevedoring was standardized to use large amphorae as containers .
When the containers were cheap to manufacture , they were smashed at the destination and used as reinforcing in Roman concrete constructions (cf Roman houses . ) The rough curvilinear shape of amphorae fragments in a concrete matrix gives a better compression-strength than steel reinforcing .
It was the lack of commercially viable lifts that limited the height of Roman apartments , not the strength of materials . (Cf walk-up flats in New York circa 1800’s)
Discussion:
Literally millions of tones of olive oil , grain , wine , garum , cement , metals (small iron ingots ) , charcoal etc was shipped in the late Republican and Empire period . The Globalization period of Rome . Equally , millions of tons of amphorae .
Production specialized in the regions most suitable for a certain product .
Olive oil : Iberia , North Africa .
Grain : Egypt and North Africa .
Wine : Italy and France .
Garum : initially everywhere , but later on the Lowlands of Holland .
Cement from Egypt and Italy .
Metals and charcoal were strategic materials for manufacturing weapons and armour . Initially the smithies and armouries were in Italy , but later in the Empire shifted them to the northern provinces of Gaul . This was closer to the iron deposits in Germany and still available forests for charcoal . But charcoal was still imported on a large scale to the cities of the Roman Empire for fuel .
Amphorae : where the right clay and sufficient fuel (wood) was available . Like aluminium in modern times , or charcoal in any time , ceramics is condensed energy . An amphora transported from North Africa to Rome represented a certain amount of wood burnt .
For instance , Italian hills were deforested to plant vines as the most profitable cash-crop (on the latifundiae). This wine was exported at a huge mark-up . Charcoal was then imported . Hence the deforestation of North Africa , Levant , Turkey and France .
Note the effect on history : with the collapse of the Western Roman Empire circa 500 – 600 AD , wine-trading routes to the West collapsed , mainly due to piracy . Byzantium kept the eastern trade routes relatively pirate-free . Desperate wine-producers in Italy dumped their wine in the Middle East , especially Arabia . This flood of cheap wine caused a wave of drunkenness in the Middle-East , resulting in Mohammed’s stricture against “the fruit of the vine” . Beer and kumiss were not affected , as the low alcohol concentration was essential as sterilization agent of water.
Alcohol Concentrations .
Wine can be made to about 14% alcohol per volume . Strong beer is about 5% . Medieval beer and wine was about 2%-3% . A modern spirit with a mixer (25 ml spirit with 175 ml mixer) is about 6% alcohol .A wine drinker imbibes a drink that is 2 to 3 times as potent as that of a spirit drinker .
Hence the Symposium Master that controlled the mixing of wine and water in a krater in ancient Greece . Only barbarians drank wine neat .
Humans can drink 2% alcohol solutions indefinitely .Indeed , present stress-management techniques recommend some alcohol .
Over 1 500 years of rigorous selection in the West might have made alcohol de-rigeur on a neuronal level .
Forget Prozac ! Drink 1% – 2% watered wine .
Dosage :
Very little . 1% of 200 ml (a glass) is 2 ml . At 50% alcohol concentration , this means that about a teaspoonful(5 ml or 10 drops) of vodka per glass will give about 1.25 % alcohol concentration . This will get metabolized almost immediately , but not before tripping some neurochemical switches . Serotonin and dopamine springs to mind . Remember the evolutionary background . Western genetic neuronal systems have evolved to get antsy if there are no alcohol switches being activated . The amount of alcohol does not matter , but the transient concentration does .
Now do you see why so many patent medicines in alcohol solutions have been so effective for anxiety .
In medieval times , western Europeans who did not drink mild beer died of water-borne diseases . Note the uneven distribution of alcohol-tolerance genes between East and West . The East had tea for thousands of years . This required boiling of water , giving a measure of protection against water-borne diseases .
One would expect this from evolutionary grounds , since there is no reason for homonins to develop a tolerance of alcohol ( a systemic poison) in the wild state .
Ho! Ho! Ho!
Some commentators have advanced the theory that the caffeine stimulation of coffee and tea led to the advances of the industrial revolution in the west . It seems more likely that reduction in alcohol intake plus the better nutrition from grain previously used for brewing would have a bigger effect . This last effect is not negligible . To produce a 2% alcohol beer , about 15% – 20 % of the grain/barley crop would be needed . This would have had significant effect on child nutrition and subsequent brain development .
Not to mention the civilization-wide withdrawal effect !
The Hubbert effect.
Hubbert was an American oil-man who used his technique to predict the peak of US oil production . He did his prediction in the early 1950’s . He predicted a peak in 1972.
This happened . The methodology has been extrapolated to any non-renewable resource .
Essentially , you graph annual production (y-axis) against sum of production-to-date (x-axis) .
For oil and coal this has given a straight-line graph over periods of about 150 years . In other words , a fair degree of confidence in the extrapolation of the straight line .
It means that easily exploitable deposits are used first , then more difficult and costly and so forth until it becomes too difficult and costly to continue . It seems to be insensitive to any technological advances .
The essential point is that any finite resource in the ancient world had to follow this pattern . The clay to make amphorae was one such resource .
The Romans used this resource as if there was no tomorrow .Eventually , the easy resources were exhausted and only a few places manufactured increasingly expensive amphorae . Eventually they ran out . When the trading routes broke down , charcoal could not be imported anymore to fire the amphora kilns . The workers dispersed and the skills were lost and never re-established .
Barrels replaced amphorae , but they could never replace amphorae , since they were expensive , difficult to make and of limited storage .
The Garum Catastrophe .
Garum was a fermented fish sauce that contained essential fats and amino-acids normally found in meat . Normal Romans ate very little meat . But with the disappearance of amphorae , garum disappeared . (Oak barrels gave a funny taste and let in oxygen ) . Only the Dutch persevered , (eg “garing”) , eventually evolving into the herring trade . But that took a whopping 600 years .
The effect was deficiency diseases on top of all the other disasters .
Note the Roman Catholic fishy Friday attempt to compensate .
Andre