How to predict earthquake damage .

How to predict Earthquake Damage .
Andre Willers
25 Jun 2011

"Fight only after you have won" Sun Tsu

Synopsis :
Predict only after the event . It takes a slow speed for the quake effects to travel , but lightspeed for the information . The information can be collated , integrated and distributed nearly instantaneously using GPS and smartphone apps before the quake arrives from the epicenter .

Discussion :
A Californian Killer-App .
GPS in phones and other things have both lateral and vertical capability . Sudden mass movement can be recognized (app) , then broadcast long-range (small world network model ) .

In other words an earthquake can be recognized at the epicenter and warnings sent to neighbouring cellular networks long before the actual earthmovement arrives there . A 100 % prediction .

The magnitude , ETA and Tsunami effects can be built into the app .
(A trivial set of rules)

Experience in the last set of quakes and tsunami's have shown that even 10 seconds of warning can have dramatic effect on the human death rate .

The unzipping of the Pacific Rim of Fire is proceeding roughly on schedule .
(Aleutian Earthquake of 7.4 on 23 Jun 2011)
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Los Angelos Earthquake Warning" Mar 2011
The unzipping is expected to proceed faster along longitudes (see arguments about helical plasma plumes , barycenter , etc) .
The expected Big One in California is within the next 6 months .

Earthquake App on your Cellphone .
This can give a directed warning , sufficient for large survival rates .
Profitable too .
I would certainly be willing to pay a small fee for such a service in an area like California . Multiply by millions .

GeoCaching
A sport that hides GPS systems connected to the grid in the most inaccessible places they can think of . A free earthquake monitoring and warning service . To be encouraged .
See www.geocaching.com and www.opencaching.com

Why wait till the quake reaches the surface ?
Most epicenters are kilometers below the surface , with the same differentials in transmission speed .
But how to measure them ?

Gravity !
A 9 quake like in Japan recently , had significant gravitational effects , measurable in satellite orbits . This includes GPS satellites , where measurements can be made to a very fine degree , using time-differentials .
Co-ordinate this with geo-magnetic measurements using a genetic algorithm , and we can get a by-damn fine damage predictive system into hours .
All nearly 100% . Postdictive .
And mostly done real-time using GPS time-differentials .

These can be linked into the phone apps , leading to hours of warning time .

Money :
Really serious money can be made by being the first effective warning service providers .

Time for the Free-enterprise model to put up or shut up .
You have 2 months time in California and the USA .

Why ?
Mr Murphy :
The worst possible time for the Big One in California is around Aug 2 , 2011 .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Financial Crash 2 Aug 2011" Jun 2011

If you can't predict , postdict with a long lead time .

Andre .