World War 2.5

World War 2.5
Andre Willers
22 Sep 2011

“We must all indeed hang together , or most assuredly , we shall all hang separately” . Franklin
“Here we go again .” Tomb of the Unknown Soldier .

Synopsis :
Euro financial dynamics gives the first major nation (Germany,France,Italy) to leave Euro zone major advantages . This will force the other big nations to follow suit , leaving the rest of the Euro partners with the baby .
Within five years this will lead to regional armed conflicts .(From history)

Discussion :
See the scenario's for “Rush for the exit” and “Prisoner's dilemma” .
Essentially , the collective cross-subsidization breaks down and the devil takes the hindmost .

Logically , Germany should be first , since it has most to gain . But France has nearly as much to gain , and it's major banks are very exposed . Limiting it's losses would be a major consideration .

Ironically , I would estimate Italy the most likely to trigger the process .
A good 40% of it's economy is Black , outside the tax net , but can be mobilized in other ways .
In other words , they have a productivity reserve . Exiting the Euro to the New Lire and mobilizing the reserve would leave them in a better relative position , paying off their debts in devalued Euro's and doing internal financing via New Lires .

This will force Germany and France to do the same , or face a taxpayer revolt .
If Germany tries to support the Euro singlehandedly , it faces hyperinflation nightmares , something it's citizens will never tolerate .

This will crash the Euro , since the only nations remaining in it will be debt-ridden , low-productivity Eastern European states , Greece , Spain , Portugal , Ireland .

Strategic Considerations :
This will be a long-term disaster for Europe .

1.Regional warfare is inevitable (WW2.5) . Yugoslavia was a foretaste .
2.Russia will regain control of some former satellites .
3.Turkey as a regional power will swing away . See “Goeben-affair” in WWI
4.British influence will show a resurgence .
5.Ancient British-French rivalry will resume . (Not again!)
6.Strong US isolationism . ( “Three times is a bit much !”)
7.Strong Chinese influence (“New Chinese-Marshall Plan .”)

All this coming to you during the next week in a country near you !

Andre