Andre Willers
20 Jan 2013
Synopsis :
Any hierarchical system must complexify , thus limitit
the number of possible paths to survival .
Discussion :
1.Why "must" any hierarchical system complexify ?
1.1. Hierarchical systems evolve to handle scarcities .
1.2. Even if there is no scarcity , the hierarchy creates artificial scarcities to maintain it's structure .
History is full of examples .
Versailles .
The perfect example is Louis IV court at Versailles .
The Aristocrats were all rich , but they still complexified their environment by some very vicious intrigues to further their "advancement" , said advancement being notice of the King .
They created an artificial scarcity (the King has finite capacity) .
This structure also destroyed the society it sprung from , as the cost of complexity spiralled out of control .
Also see any Dole System , Social Welfare , University Tenure , Parliamentary Systems , Civil Service , etc ,etc .
1.3. Academia is a sad case .
They should have known better.
1.4. The General Hierarchical Complexification Process :
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1.4.1. Start loop
1.4.2. Every newbie must pay his dues . ie knuckle down (note anthromorphic submission) .
1.4.3. Then the person can only make a mark by being more elaborate , conquer more territory , being more outrageous , discover new things , be original , but not too original .
1.4.4. Loop back to 1.4.1. above
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There you have human history in an Algorithmic nutshell .
2.Organized Religions :
These are especially vulnerable to complexification .
See all those pyramids , tumuli , Stonehenges etc littering the landscape . They all started as a simple show of extra respect . But every succeeding generation had to complexify it until the Society collapsed under the strain .
Buddhist ruins are instructive . They did not spend too much on wars , yet Burma , Thailand , etc are littered with ruins
3.Abstract systems like Empires do the same . See Appendix I
4.How do you recognise an over-complexified system ?
The classical example is the Ptolemaic System . Epicycle on epicycle . See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geocentric_model
A simple system is complexified out of recognition .
5.This is related to the concept of Paradigm Shift .
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm . This is a auto-illustration of the principle . The description on Wikipedia is overcomplexified .
Something simple gets complexified until it collapses . A new simple takes its place and the process repeats .
6.This post was triggered because I watched a Tai Chi Instruction video .
The self-interested complexifications of various parties through the centuries was painfully evident .
It was embarrassing to watch .
Is this the best we can do ?
7.Interestingly enough , not all Complexification is Bad .
From general error principles set out in Reserve Arguments See Appendix H , only about 2/3 are bad .
The problem is that we do not know which elements these are .
8. The body solves this problem by accelerated growth regions (cancer nodules , usually under control , but there is an occasional oops! . )
9.Societies hive off a similar type of thing . Greek polities(circa 400 BC) , Western Europe states (circa 1700 AD) , China(circa 1990 AD) .
10.Are we doomed ?
According to Tainter and Diamond we are (see Appendix I) .
But all humans are doomed . You are going to die sometime . But the possible contribution to knowledge is a Reserve in the System .
Like Sundays , Holidays , etc.
As long as the reserve is over 37% (See Appendix H) , only a traumatic external event (See Appendix B) can destroy the system .
11. What are human planetary Reserves ?
1.1 You have to factor in the Internet . It creates the Reserves , but they are Reserves-in-waiting , inhibited from expression by hierarchical complexification .
In other words there are lots of good ideas out there , but the Boss will not see them or they will not further his interests .
See http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm
About 34% of humans have access to the internet . (about June 2012) .
But, notice the distribution . about half are in Asia .
Why ?
Because they are using Ostrum Systems to unlock value in hierarchical reserves . A very Neo- Capitalist thing to do . ( See Appendix Ostrum)
1.2 This changes everything . The problem now is too large reserves . Too many new ideas . Future Shock .
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Shock . It is the accountancy systems that have major problems with Future Shock (not humans) . They usually write down capital cost over 5 years . If the capital cost becomes obsolete before this , the system goes into shock . This model is now obsolete .
1.3 Re-evaluating General Reserve Systems :
2/3 of everything is crap . But 1/3 of2/3 are reserves that is not crap . So 2/3*1/3 = 0.222 is not crap on second iterations . This gives the well-known Pareto relationship .
The non-crap bit then becomes 0.2222 + 0.3333 =0.55555
So Pareto includes infinite processes .
What this means is that the human Reserve is 0.5555x0.34 = 0.18887.
The critical point is 0.37/0.5555 = 0.66667 of the population . (See Appendix H)
1.4 Phase Change :
When 2/3 of the planetary population has Internet Connection , a phase change occurs .
We are now at 34%
Growth is about 41 % (see http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-10-28/news/34780476_1_online-travel-user-base-internet-users )
1.5 The data is old . about 1.7 years from data point the critical point has been reached . Early 2013 .
1.6 The phase change has already occurred . (20/1/2013)
1.5 Hierarchical collapse :
See Moroccan reaction to hostage attempt .
This is not an outlier .
Expect a much harder approach as 2/3 of the population is connected .
This is built into the systems , not the humans .
12. A lot of yakkity-yak .
What does it mean ?
13. If you have a boss , it means you are in a hierarchical system This means that you are a slave .
14. The phase change .
A More than 67% of the planetary population connected to the Internet brings about a phase change ..
This is not a voluntary system . Not exactly democracy . A much older and deeper system .
Maybe you should have paid more attention to Quorum systems ?
15. What does this mean ?
It is like a watershed . Biological systems mediated by feedback systems now change from negative to positive .
Expect many spontaneous remissions .
A quorum of one , any one ?
Andre
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Appendix I
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter
"Societies collapse when their investments in social complexity and their "energy subsidies" reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. He recognizes collapse when a society rapidly sheds a significant portion of its complexity."
"For contrast, Jared Diamond's 2005 book, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, focuses on environmental mismanagement as a cause of collapse. Finally, Tainter musters modern statistics to show that marginal returns on investments in energy, education and technological innovation are diminishing today. The globalised modern world is subject to many of the same stresses that brought older societies to ruin.[6] "
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Appendix H
Infinite Probes 2
Andre Willers
30 April 2008
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Infinite Probes'
From discussing this with various recipients , there seems to be a need for a simpler explanation . I thought I had explained it in the simplest fashion possible . The subject matter is inherently complex .
But , here goes .
How much must you save ?
If you save too little , a random fluctuation can wipe you out .
If you save too much , you lose opportunity costs . If you are in competition , this loss can be enough to lose the competition (ie you die)
Intuitively , you can realize there is an optimum level of saving .
Methods exist of calculating this optimum in very specific instances (ie portfolios of shares ,eg Kelly criteria , or tactics in war eg MiniMax ) .
The General Case
We need to hold a Reserve in case Something goes wrong . But we do not know what thing goes wrong .
Infinite Probes tries to answer the general case . What is really , really surprising is that a answer is possible .
The Infinite bit comes from using the mathematical expansion of the Definition of Eulers Constant e = ( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
Where n!= n*(n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)*…*(1)
This approaches a constant , widely used in mathematics and physics .
(e = 2.718…) .
All we need is a system that can be subdivided indefinitely (to infinity) .
First , we divide by 1
Then 2
Then 3
Then 4
And so forth till infinity .
What is important is not that we do know what these divisions are , only that they are possible . We also do not know which one element goes wrong .
The other critical insight is that it is the relation between elements that is important . (Permutations) (The failure of an element in total isolation cannot affect the whole system by definition .)
We can count the number of relationships where there is failure of one element .
It is n! , where n is number of divisions where only one failure .
Multiple failures are handled by summing :
Our Reserve(R ) is divided by n to infinity and summed .
TotReserve= R*( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
TotReserve= R * e
To find the boundaries of our Reserve , we set TotReserve = Cost
Then
R = 1/e * Cost
R ~ 0.37 * Cost
What does this mean?
This method measures the upper boundary of the reserve needed to survive failures in any element of the Cost-Universe . Ie , internal fluctuations .
This is the surprising bit . Any society that keeps at least 37% reserves , can only be destroyed by something outside it's envelope . It is internally stable , no matter what .
Empires like the Ancient Egyptians , Romans , Chinese are possible , as long as there is no climactic fluctuation , new inventions , diseases ,etc . Rare events . Hence the technological stasis of old civilizations . The two are synonymous .
This is true at any scale (except quantal , by definition.) .
Individuals too . Humans can be seen as empires of noospheres .
The upper boundary does not take any double-counting into account . It is true for any system whatsoever .
A truly remarkable precise result from such general axioms .
The Lower Boundaries .
This is where it gets interesting .
Remember , we are just counting the number of ways in which permutations of one element can fail . We then sum them to get the effect of the failures of other elements
The easiest is the business that just starts and is not selling anything . It fails on n elements on every term . It's floor capital must then be
R=Cost/(1+e)
R=0.27*Cost
This is the initial reserve to get off the ground .
This is true in any ecosystem . This is why it is so difficult to start a new business , or why a new species cannot succeed . Or why waves of pandemics are scarcer .
For the epidemically minded , this 10% difference is responsible for the demise of the Black Death ( smallpox outcompeted bubonic plaque variants for the CR5 access site.Ironically , the reason why we have only a limited HIV plague is the high competition for this site , probably some flu vectors . As one would expect , the incidence of HIV then becomes inversely proportional to connectivity (ie flights) .
A cessation of airplane flights will then lead to a flare-up of diseases like these .
Not exactly what anybody has in mind . )
When we find that we really need the spread of infectious vectors to stay healthy , then we know we have really screwed ourselves .
These are the two main boundaries .
The literature is full of other limits the series can approach . Keep a clear head on what the physical significance is .
Fat
I cannot leave the subject without the thing closest to human hearts : appearance .
Fat and fitness .
Sadly , the present fad for leanness is just that . The period of superfluous food is coming to an end .
Rich individuals can afford to be lean because the reserves are in the monetary wealth Women have to bear children individually , so they cannot store the needed reserves externally . Hence their fat storage is close to the theoretical optimum even in Western societies (33%) . In other societies the percentage is about 37-40% .
Human males have been bred (Mk III humans) for muscle Note the frequent references to diseases laying whole armies low . and little fat (8% in a superbly fit male) . He does not have reserves to withstand even garrison duty (even little
diseases will lay him low .)
Note what is left out : the camp-followers . They survived The women and babyfat children . Every army seeded the invaded area with women and children .
The bred soldier has to eat a high-carb food frequently : not meat or fat , his body cannot store it . This is the definition of a wheat-eating legionary .
Ho ! Ho! Ho!
The Atkinson diet .
No wonder it does not make sense in evolutionary terms .
Mesomorphic humans have been bred not to transform expensive proteins and fats into bodymass .
The soldier-class were kept on a carbohydrate leash , which could only be supplied by farming .
The Smell of Horses .
Horses exude pheromones that promote body-leanness in humans . This has an obvious advantage to horses . Horses are breeding jockeys .
The time-span is enough : at least 8 000 years . (400 generations)
Because pregnant women cannot ride horses , there was a selection pressure to breed horses who have a pheromone that block female dominance pheromones , especially since females have to weigh more because of fat-reserve considerations .
Outside a farming environment , horses will sculpt their riders as much as the riders are sculpting them .
Small Mongolian ponies , small Mongolians .
This is why alpha-males like horses and horse-dominated societies were able to conquer and keep matriarchies .
Note the effect of the pheromones on women riders . Androgeny .
On males it becomes extreme blockage of oestrogen . It seems like a surge of male hormones , but it is just an imbalance . (If too much male hormones , the men just kill their horses )
This is why the auto-mobile had such a big sociological effect . No horses , so the men became more effeminate .
Want to be Lean and Mean ?
Sniff Horse sweat pheromone .
Perfumiers take note .
Dogs
The other leg of the human-horse-dog triumvirate .
Dogs accept female pack-leaders and have evolutionary reasons for blocking horse inhibitions of human female pheromones .
While the males are away , the females look after and rely on the dogs .
(The reason why Mongols ride from yurt to yurt: they are too scared of the dogs.)
With dogs around , the male testosterone activity is ameliorated . This is a well known effect , especially if horses are around .
Hence the female love of lap-dogs . They are actually quite ferocious , and exude large amounts of pheromones that soothes the savage male breast .
Your attention is drawn to the Pekinese lapdog , which has had a disproportionately large effect on human history .
If this sounds convoluted , it is because this is exactly how this type of bio-system operates : by inhibitions of inhibitions of inhibitions ,etc .
Andre
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Appendix IV A
Orders of Randomness 2
Andre Willers
15 Aug 2008
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : "Orders of Randomness"
I have been requested to expand a little on orders of Randomness and what it means .
Please note that human endeavours at this date use only randomness of the order of flipping a coin ( Beth(0) )
Aleph is the first letter of the Hebrew Alphabet . It was used by Cantor to denote
Classes of Infinity (ie Aleph(0) for Rational numbers , Aleph(1) for Irrational Numbers , etc
Beth is the second letter of the Hebrew Alfabet . It means "House"
I will first repeat the derivation of Orders of Randomness from http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : "Orders of Randomness" because it is so important .
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Start Quote:
First , simple Randomness .
Flip of a coin .
Heads or Tails . 0 or 1
Flip an unbiased coin an infinite number of times ,write it down below each other and do it again .
All possible 0 and 1's
An example : Beth(0)
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Flips(1) 0,1,1,1,1,… etc
Flips(2) 0,1,1,1,0,… etc
.
Flips(infinity) 0,0,0,0,0,0,…etc
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This describes all possible states in a delineated binary universe .
"delineated binary" means a two sided coin which cannot land on it's side .
Now draw a diagonal line from the top left of Flips(1) to Flips(infinity) .
At every intersection of this diagonal line with a horizontal line , change the value .
The Diagonal Line of (0,1)'s is then not in the collection of all possible random
Horizontal coin-Flips(x) .
This means the Diagonal Line is of a stronger order of randomness .
This is also the standard proof of an Irrational Number .
This is the standard proof of aleph numbers .
Irrational numbers ,etc
Since any number can be written in binary (0,1) , we can infer that the order of randomness is the same as aleph numbers .
This means we can use number theory in Randomness systems .
Very important .
Google Cantor (or Kantor)
Define coin-flip Randomness as Beth(0) , analogous to Aleph(0)
Then we have at least Beth(1) , randomness an order stronger than flipping a coin .
Then we can theorize Beth(Omega) <->Aleph(Omega) .
End Quote
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Cardinal Numbers .
The cardinal number is the index x of Aleph(x) .
Cantor proved that
Aleph(n+1) = 2 ^ Aleph( n )
Where n is the cardinal number of the infinity .
Tying them together :
He also proved that
P(A) = 2^ n
Where A is any set , P(A) is the PowerSet of A and n is the cardinal number of set A
Thus , Cardinal Number of P(A) =(n+1)
The PowerSet of A = the Set of all subsets of A .
This sounds fancy , but it is simply all the different ways you can combine the elements of set A . All the ways you can chop up A .
You can see it easily in a finite binomial expansion (1+1)^n = P(A) = 2^n
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : "Infinite Probes"
There we also chop and dice , using infinite series .
Can you see how it all ties together ?
Why 2 ?
This derives from the Delineation Axiom . Remember , we can only talk about something if it is distinct and identifiable from something else . This gives a minimum of 2 states : part or non-part .
That is why the Zeta-function below is described on a 2-dimensional plane , or pesky problems like Primes always boil down to 2 dimensions of some sort .
This is why the irrational numbers play such an important part in physics .
Z=a+ib describes a 2-dimensional plane useful for delineated systems without feedback systems
Its in the axiom of Delineation , dummy .
But we know that Russell proved that A+~A<Universum .
The difference can be described as the Beth sequences . Since they are derivatives of summation-sequences(see below) , they define arrows usually seen as the time-arrows .
These need not to be described a-la-dunne's serial time , as different Beth levels address the problem adequately without multiplying hypotheses .
Self-referencing systems and Beth sequences .
A Proper Self-referencing system is of one cardinal Beth number higher than the system it derives from .
Self-referencing systems (feedback systems) can always be described as sequences of Beth systems . Ie as Beth(x) <-> Beth(y) . The formal proof is a bit long for inclusion here .
The easiest way to see it is in Bayesian systems . If Beth(x) systems are included , Bayesian systems become orders of magnitude more effective .
Life , civilization and markets are such . See below .
Conservation Laws :
By definition , these can always be written in a form of
SomeExpression = 0
Random (Beth(0) Walk in Euclidean 2-dimensions
This is a powerful unifying principle derived from the Delineation Axiom .
In Random Walk the Distance from the Center is = d * (n)^0.5 . This is a property of Euclidean systems .
(Where d = step , n=number of random beth(0) steps)
Immediately we can say that the only hope of the Walker returning to the center after an infinity of Beth(0) steps is if d ~ 1/(n)^0.5 . This is the Riemann Hypothesis .
Now , see a Universum of 2-dimensional descriptors z=a+ib
Sum all of them . Add together all the possible things that can be thus described .
This can be done as follows :
From z=a+ib Raise both sides to the e
e^(z) = e^(a) . e^i(b)
Raise both sides to the ln(j) power where j is real integers.
j^(z) = j^(a) . e^(b/ln(j))
Now , sum them :
Zeta=Sum of j^(z) for j=1 to infinity
Now we extract all possible statements that embody some Conservation Law . Beth(1)
This means that Zeta is zero for the set of extracted statements if and only if (b/ln(j)) is of the order of Beth(0) and a=(-1/2)
Tensors .
The above is a definition of a tensor for a discontinous function .
Riemann's Zeta function.
This can describe any delineated system .
If Zeta = 0 , conservation laws apply .
Zeta = Sigma(1/j )^z for j=1,2,3,…,infinity and z=a+ib , where z is complex and i =(-1)^0.5
The z bit is in two dimensions as discussed above .
This function has a deep underlying meaning for infinite systems .
If you unpack the Right-Hand side on a x-yi plane you get a graph that looks like a random walk .
If every point is visited that a random walk would visit over infinity (ie all) , without clumping , then Zeta can only be non-trivially zero if a=(-1/2) .
Why (x – yi) plane ? See "Why 2 " above . The system is fractal . Two dimensions are necessary in any delineated system .
Remember , randomwalk distance from origin = step*sqrt(number of steps) .
So if the steps = 1/ ( sqrt(number of steps) ) , then the Origin might be reached if and only if a= -1/2
This is easily proven .
If a= - 1/2 , then b can be any real function . This would include Beth(0) and Beth(1) , but not higher orders of beth .
If a= -1/2 and b is an unreal number , then a cannot be equal to -1/2 anymore . Conservation cannot hold at any level .
Consequences:
Conservation Laws can only hold for Beth(0) and Beth(1) systems .
This is forced by the two dimensions of delineation .
Mathematically , this means that Beth(2+) systems of feedbacks can only be described in terms of attractors or/and fractal systems (ie not in isolation)
Physically , conservation of energy and momentum need not hold for Beth(2+) systems .
This has an interesting corollary in decryption (unpacking) . A Beth(2) mind unpacking Beth(0) or Beth(1) encryption is functionally equivalent to Non-Conservation of Energy
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Appendix B
For Blast
Blast from the Past
Andre Willers
13 Jan 2012
Synopsis:
High intensities of gamma- and X-ray radiation on Earth from the center of our galaxy can be expected during 2013 AD , due to an infalling gas cloud into the central Milky Way black hole .
Discussion :
The discovery was made by Stefan Gillesson of the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics
in Garching , Germany .
References :
- "Nature" , DOI 10.1038/nature10652
- "New Scientist" 17 Dec 2011 p16 "Cloud suicide could transform black hole"
A gas cloud of an estimated three earth masses is expected to impact the supermassive , rotating black hole at the center of our galaxy ("Sagittarius A*") in 2013 AD . Note that radiation from this event can be expected shortly afterward in local time .
A large part of this mass will be converted to electro-magnetic energy .
Now , three earth masses is not a lot of energy in the galactic scheme of things , but the way it is distributed does .
Briefly , the energy release is characterized by very short wavelenghts (gamma or x-ray) and lobe-shaped distributions of the pulse-wavefronts in the galactic ecliptic .
There is a combination of relativistic and quantum effects in the last few cm's before the event horizon .
1.There is a slingshot effect , because the gas cloud must be lumpy , even if only at atomic scale . The gas cloud vanishes in a few Planck -time units , emitting very short-wave radiation due to differential tidal friction .
2.But the black hole is large and rotating , which forms time-bands of slower time , which gives enough time for feedback . Depending on the size and rotation speed of the black hole , this will lead to 2n lobes of wavefronts on the rotation equator , where n=1,2,3,...
3.Hawking Burps .
This process in para 2 above "foams" the event horizon , leading to a drastically increased Hawking radiation . (The "foam" would be something like Sierpinsky chaotic triangles)
The density and time-band concentrations of energy separates particle-anti-particle pairs to give Hawking radiation .
This burp of energy sweeps matter from the neighborhood of the black hole and reduces the mass of the black hole , preventing black holes from swallowing everything . Elegant .
4.Turning a Hawking Burp into a White Hole .
There is a narrow window where the Burp becomes self-sustaining . A large black hole then evaporates in an awesome release of energy . Even the tiniest random fluctuation (eg matter-antimatter) will get magnified and perpetuated .
Not the place to take your mother for a picnic .
5.Foaming Space-time .
Well , space-time is already foamed , but only to a simple level . (Quantum foam)
Call it Foam(0)
We can churn this to higher orders of foam (Foam(1) , Foam(2) , Foam(3) ,...,Foam(b) )
where b can be derived from Kantor's Aleph classes combined with chaos theory .
Taken to the logical extreme , this leaves only Foam ordered into Branes .
The smile on the Cheshire cat just after he brushed his teeth .
So what does this mean to us ?
A full frontal impact from a lobe will give a definitive answer to Fermi's Paradox : "Where are they ?" Why , extinct .
More likely is an immersion in the higher radiation levels alongside the lobes for a long time .
Can be survived , given enough warning .
Apply to the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics for more .
Friday the thirteenth can be quite a gas .
Andre
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Appendix Ostrum
The Ostrum Game
Andre Willers
30 Oct 2011
"One Game shall bind them all ." , ( with apologies to Tolkien)
"This time , we know for sure the grass is greener somewhere"
"A Revolution , any Revolution."
Synopsis :
A Game for Grown-ups .
The Eight Ostrum Design Principles are Meta-rules that generate self-consistent sets of rules that encompasses competition , co-operation , catastrophe , hierarchies and other systems undreamt of , all between discrete , interacting , self-organising systems .
Your avatar can go from SecondLife to Simworld , to War Worlds , to any desired locale .
Reality becomes a subset .
Discussion :
1.An incredible amount of money can be made .While money still has some meaning .
Without too much work . See Para 8 in Appendix A
Each Game Company is a base nested institution .
They bind easily together , releasing a lot of energy and money .
Explosive Feedback Synergism .
A run-up to the Singularity .
2.Feedback between Games and Reality :
The Meta-rules make no differentiation between Game-characters and Real-characters .
Indeed , many Real-characters have been spun into Game-characters , and vice-versa .
Think Sherlock Holmes , MacGyver , Gauss , young Werther etc
See "mirror-neuron networks" , any soap opera , etc .
Real-life problems get treated the same way as Game problems . The more diverse and sophisticated the Game interactions become , the more effect on any real or Game system .
Eventually , they become undistinguishable as technology progresses .
3.The Grass is provably greener somewhere .
Long known as a wishful thinking fallacy , until Ostrum published the Design Principles in 1990 .
This was the trigger event of under-the-surface knowledge about Ostrum Rules building up .
Suddenly , it became possible .
A Phase-change in the noosphere occurred .
It meant that a Disaster of the Commons or an Empire was not inevitable . Grandchildren could survive .
WE CAN MAKE THE GRASS GREENER , EVEN IF WE HAVE TO PAINT IT ONE BLADE AT A TIME .
Enormous tensions began surfacing . These effects are still playing out now .
A really , really major Hysterical Focus started forming , and is still intensifying .
Now , are you surprised that 1990 was the year of huge revolutions , when the USSR collapsed ?
The Ostrum Game beat the Ring of Power .
And you have not seen anything yet .
The pace of Revolutions is intensifying .
A good thing , if Homo wishes to escape extinction .
4.Automating Ostrum Rules :
They might be Meta-rules , but they are still rules .
We can certainly write programs that can serve to guide past most of the pitfalls and suggest alternatives .
5.Multicellular Bodies as Commons :
We can certainly analyze bodies in terms of Commons . The Dear Reader will find many interesting things if he does that .
Note the emphasis on communication .
Talk to your body . Aloud . And listen in the silences in between .
Create a virtual body and note the interactions .
Use the Ostrum Design principles .
6.Singularity :
It is immediately obvious that humans are then not limited to Real biochemical definitions of personality . The emphasis on communication means that personalities are distributed across Real and Game spaces . The Game space personality segments are only limited by internal non-contradictory rules . That can be done via Ostrum Design principles .
Not exactly instantaneous , but I can intuit that the time can be calculated . It would be less than real time .
The putative developing system would have ethical constraints on abandoning Real-part personalities under Ostrum Rules .
Told you it would be kindler , gentler .
7.Phase Change :
The system has already undergone an irrevocable phase change in 1990 .
You can fast-forward the rest .
8.Did Ostrum know what she was unleashing ?
The Revolutionary aspects , nearly certainly .
In her quiet way , she is one of the greatest Revolutionaries in Homo Sapiens history . Worthy of being called a Matriarch .
The Singularity aspect is more uncertain . She certainly knew that she unleashed major fairness , but the phase-change in the Noosphere I do not know .
Still , a tour-de-force .
How do feel like being a pet of your avatar ?
Andre .
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Appendix A
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elinor_Ostrom
To quote from Wiki : (comments in brackets are my own ).
" Ostrom identifies eight "design principles" of stable local common pool resource management:[10]
- Clearly defined boundaries (effective exclusion of external un-entitled parties;
- Rules regarding the appropriation and provision of common resources that are adapted to local conditions; (Equal sharing of debts and rewards)
- Collective-choice arrangements that allow most resource appropriators to participate in the decision-making process; (Consensus decisions-no leveraged hierarchies)
- Effective monitoring by monitors who are part of or accountable to the appropriators; (Policing)
- A scale of graduated sanctions for resource appropriators who violate community rules; (Opportunity to learn from mistakes )
- Mechanisms of conflict resolution that are cheap and of easy access; (Fair and Fast Justice . See how Inquisitorial Justice systems like Chinese , French or Sharia does it.)
- Self-determination of the community recognized by higher-level authorities; (Autonomy within clearly defined levels . Something like a Federation.)
- In the case of larger common-pool resources,organization in the form of multiple layers of nested enterprises, with small local CPRs at the base level. (Clear and quick relations with others. A potential sticky point with states.)
Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action Ostrom, Elinor, Cambridge University Press, 1990 "
The most important book in the Twentieth Century .
Try to read it .
Hierarchical Complexification .
Andre Willers
20 Jan 2013
Synopsis :
Any hierarchical system must complexify , thus limitit
the number of possible paths to survival .
Discussion :
1.Why "must" any hierarchical system complexify ?
1.1. Hierarchical systems evolve to handle scarcities .
1.2. Even if there is no scarcity , the hierarchy creates artificial scarcities to maintain it's structure .
History is full of examples .
Versailles .
The perfect example is Louis IV court at Versailles .
The Aristocrats were all rich , but they still complexified their environment by some very vicious intrigues to further their "advancement" , said advancement being notice of the King .
They created an artificial scarcity (the King has finite capacity) .
This structure also destroyed the society it sprung from , as the cost of complexity spiralled out of control .
Also see any Dole System , Social Welfare , University Tenure , Parliamentary Systems , Civil Service , etc ,etc .
1.3. Academia is a sad case .
They should have known better.
1.4. The General Hierarchical Complexification Process :
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1.4.1. Start loop
1.4.2. Every newbie must pay his dues . ie knuckle down (note anthromorphic submission) .
1.4.3. Then the person can only make a mark by being more elaborate , conquer more territory , being more outrageous , discover new things , be original , but not too original .
1.4.4. Loop back to 1.4.1. above
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There you have human history in an Algorithmic nutshell .
2.Organized Religions :
These are especially vulnerable to complexification .
See all those pyramids , tumuli , Stonehenges etc littering the landscape . They all started as a simple show of extra respect . But every succeeding generation had to complexify it until the Society collapsed under the strain .
Buddhist ruins are instructive . They did not spend too much on wars , yet Burma , Thailand , etc are littered with ruins
3.Abstract systems like Empires do the same . See Appendix I
4.How do you recognise an over-complexified system ?
The classical example is the Ptolemaic System . Epicycle on epicycle . See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geocentric_model
A simple system is complexified out of recognition .
5.This is related to the concept of Paradigm Shift .
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm . This is a auto-illustration of the principle . The description on Wikipedia is overcomplexified .
Something simple gets complexified until it collapses . A new simple takes its place and the process repeats .
6.This post was triggered because I watched a Tai Chi Instruction video .
The self-interested complexifications of various parties through the centuries was painfully evident .
It was embarrassing to watch .
Is this the best we can do ?
7.Interestingly enough , not all Complexification is Bad .
From general error principles set out in Reserve Arguments See Appendix H , only about 2/3 are bad .
The problem is that we do not know which elements these are .
8. The body solves this problem by accelerated growth regions (cancer nodules , usually under control , but there is an occasional oops! . )
9.Societies hive off a similar type of thing . Greek polities(circa 400 BC) , Western Europe states (circa 1700 AD) , China(circa 1990 AD) .
10.Are we doomed ?
According to Tainter and Diamond we are (see Appendix I) .
But all humans are doomed . You are going to die sometime . But the possible contribution to knowledge is a Reserve in the System .
Like Sundays , Holidays , etc.
As long as the reserve is over 37% (See Appendix H) , only a traumatic external event (See Appendix B) can destroy the system .
11. What are human planetary Reserves ?
1.1 You have to factor in the Internet . It creates the Reserves , but they are Reserves-in-waiting , inhibited from expression by hierarchical complexification .
In other words there are lots of good ideas out there , but the Boss will not see them or they will not further his interests .
See http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm
About 34% of humans have access to the internet . (about June 2012) .
But, notice the distribution . about half are in Asia .
Why ?
Because they are using Ostrum Systems to unlock value in hierarchical reserves . A very Neo- Capitalist thing to do . ( See Appendix Ostrum)
1.2 This changes everything . The problem now is too large reserves . Too many new ideas . Future Shock .
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Shock . It is the accountancy systems that have major problems with Future Shock (not humans) . They usually write down capital cost over 5 years . If the capital cost becomes obsolete before this , the system goes into shock . This model is now obsolete .
1.3 Re-evaluating General Reserve Systems :
2/3 of everything is crap . But 1/3 of2/3 are reserves that is not crap . So 2/3*1/3 = 0.222 is not crap on second iterations . This gives the well-known Pareto relationship .
The non-crap bit then becomes 0.2222 + 0.3333 =0.55555
So Pareto includes infinite processes .
What this means is that the human Reserve is 0.5555x0.34 = 0.18887.
The critical point is 0.37/0.5555 = 0.66667 of the population . (See Appendix H)
1.4 Phase Change :
When 2/3 of the planetary population has Internet Connection , a phase change occurs .
We are now at 34%
Growth is about 41 % (see http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-10-28/news/34780476_1_online-travel-user-base-internet-users )
1.5 The data is old . about 1.7 years from data point the critical point has been reached . Early 2013 .
1.6 The phase change has already occurred . (20/1/2013)
1.5 Hierarchical collapse :
See Moroccan reaction to hostage attempt .
This is not an outlier .
Expect a much harder approach as 2/3 of the population is connected .
This is built into the systems , not the humans .
12. A lot of yakkity-yak .
What does it mean ?
13. If you have a boss , it means you are in a hierarchical system This means that you are a slave .
14. The phase change .
A More than 67% of the planetary population connected to the Internet brings about a phase change ..
This is not a voluntary system . Not exactly democracy . A much older and deeper system .
Maybe you should have paid more attention to Quorum systems ?
15. What does this mean ?
It is like a watershed . Biological systems mediated by feedback systems now change from negative to positive .
Expect many spontaneous remissions .
A quorum of one , any one ?
Andre
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Appendix I
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter
"Societies collapse when their investments in social complexity and their "energy subsidies" reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. He recognizes collapse when a society rapidly sheds a significant portion of its complexity."
"For contrast, Jared Diamond's 2005 book, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, focuses on environmental mismanagement as a cause of collapse. Finally, Tainter musters modern statistics to show that marginal returns on investments in energy, education and technological innovation are diminishing today. The globalised modern world is subject to many of the same stresses that brought older societies to ruin.[6] "
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Appendix H
Infinite Probes 2
Andre Willers
30 April 2008
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Infinite Probes'
From discussing this with various recipients , there seems to be a need for a simpler explanation . I thought I had explained it in the simplest fashion possible . The subject matter is inherently complex .
But , here goes .
How much must you save ?
If you save too little , a random fluctuation can wipe you out .
If you save too much , you lose opportunity costs . If you are in competition , this loss can be enough to lose the competition (ie you die)
Intuitively , you can realize there is an optimum level of saving .
Methods exist of calculating this optimum in very specific instances (ie portfolios of shares ,eg Kelly criteria , or tactics in war eg MiniMax ) .
The General Case
We need to hold a Reserve in case Something goes wrong . But we do not know what thing goes wrong .
Infinite Probes tries to answer the general case . What is really , really surprising is that a answer is possible .
The Infinite bit comes from using the mathematical expansion of the Definition of Eulers Constant e = ( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
Where n!= n*(n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)*…*(1)
This approaches a constant , widely used in mathematics and physics .
(e = 2.718…) .
All we need is a system that can be subdivided indefinitely (to infinity) .
First , we divide by 1
Then 2
Then 3
Then 4
And so forth till infinity .
What is important is not that we do know what these divisions are , only that they are possible . We also do not know which one element goes wrong .
The other critical insight is that it is the relation between elements that is important . (Permutations) (The failure of an element in total isolation cannot affect the whole system by definition .)
We can count the number of relationships where there is failure of one element .
It is n! , where n is number of divisions where only one failure .
Multiple failures are handled by summing :
Our Reserve(R ) is divided by n to infinity and summed .
TotReserve= R*( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
TotReserve= R * e
To find the boundaries of our Reserve , we set TotReserve = Cost
Then
R = 1/e * Cost
R ~ 0.37 * Cost
What does this mean?
This method measures the upper boundary of the reserve needed to survive failures in any element of the Cost-Universe . Ie , internal fluctuations .
This is the surprising bit . Any society that keeps at least 37% reserves , can only be destroyed by something outside it's envelope . It is internally stable , no matter what .
Empires like the Ancient Egyptians , Romans , Chinese are possible , as long as there is no climactic fluctuation , new inventions , diseases ,etc . Rare events . Hence the technological stasis of old civilizations . The two are synonymous .
This is true at any scale (except quantal , by definition.) .
Individuals too . Humans can be seen as empires of noospheres .
The upper boundary does not take any double-counting into account . It is true for any system whatsoever .
A truly remarkable precise result from such general axioms .
The Lower Boundaries .
This is where it gets interesting .
Remember , we are just counting the number of ways in which permutations of one element can fail . We then sum them to get the effect of the failures of other elements
The easiest is the business that just starts and is not selling anything . It fails on n elements on every term . It's floor capital must then be
R=Cost/(1+e)
R=0.27*Cost
This is the initial reserve to get off the ground .
This is true in any ecosystem . This is why it is so difficult to start a new business , or why a new species cannot succeed . Or why waves of pandemics are scarcer .
For the epidemically minded , this 10% difference is responsible for the demise of the Black Death ( smallpox outcompeted bubonic plaque variants for the CR5 access site.Ironically , the reason why we have only a limited HIV plague is the high competition for this site , probably some flu vectors . As one would expect , the incidence of HIV then becomes inversely proportional to connectivity (ie flights) .
A cessation of airplane flights will then lead to a flare-up of diseases like these .
Not exactly what anybody has in mind . )
When we find that we really need the spread of infectious vectors to stay healthy , then we know we have really screwed ourselves .
These are the two main boundaries .
The literature is full of other limits the series can approach . Keep a clear head on what the physical significance is .
Fat
I cannot leave the subject without the thing closest to human hearts : appearance .
Fat and fitness .
Sadly , the present fad for leanness is just that . The period of superfluous food is coming to an end .
Rich individuals can afford to be lean because the reserves are in the monetary wealth Women have to bear children individually , so they cannot store the needed reserves externally . Hence their fat storage is close to the theoretical optimum even in Western societies (33%) . In other societies the percentage is about 37-40% .
Human males have been bred (Mk III humans) for muscle Note the frequent references to diseases laying whole armies low . and little fat (8% in a superbly fit male) . He does not have reserves to withstand even garrison duty (even little
diseases will lay him low .)
Note what is left out : the camp-followers . They survived The women and babyfat children . Every army seeded the invaded area with women and children .
The bred soldier has to eat a high-carb food frequently : not meat or fat , his body cannot store it . This is the definition of a wheat-eating legionary .
Ho ! Ho! Ho!
The Atkinson diet .
No wonder it does not make sense in evolutionary terms .
Mesomorphic humans have been bred not to transform expensive proteins and fats into bodymass .
The soldier-class were kept on a carbohydrate leash , which could only be supplied by farming .
The Smell of Horses .
Horses exude pheromones that promote body-leanness in humans . This has an obvious advantage to horses . Horses are breeding jockeys .
The time-span is enough : at least 8 000 years . (400 generations)
Because pregnant women cannot ride horses , there was a selection pressure to breed horses who have a pheromone that block female dominance pheromones , especially since females have to weigh more because of fat-reserve considerations .
Outside a farming environment , horses will sculpt their riders as much as the riders are sculpting them .
Small Mongolian ponies , small Mongolians .
This is why alpha-males like horses and horse-dominated societies were able to conquer and keep matriarchies .
Note the effect of the pheromones on women riders . Androgeny .
On males it becomes extreme blockage of oestrogen . It seems like a surge of male hormones , but it is just an imbalance . (If too much male hormones , the men just kill their horses )
This is why the auto-mobile had such a big sociological effect . No horses , so the men became more effeminate .
Want to be Lean and Mean ?
Sniff Horse sweat pheromone .
Perfumiers take note .
Dogs
The other leg of the human-horse-dog triumvirate .
Dogs accept female pack-leaders and have evolutionary reasons for blocking horse inhibitions of human female pheromones .
While the males are away , the females look after and rely on the dogs .
(The reason why Mongols ride from yurt to yurt: they are too scared of the dogs.)
With dogs around , the male testosterone activity is ameliorated . This is a well known effect , especially if horses are around .
Hence the female love of lap-dogs . They are actually quite ferocious , and exude large amounts of pheromones that soothes the savage male breast .
Your attention is drawn to the Pekinese lapdog , which has had a disproportionately large effect on human history .
If this sounds convoluted , it is because this is exactly how this type of bio-system operates : by inhibitions of inhibitions of inhibitions ,etc .
Andre
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Appendix IV A
Orders of Randomness 2
Andre Willers
15 Aug 2008
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : "Orders of Randomness"
I have been requested to expand a little on orders of Randomness and what it means .
Please note that human endeavours at this date use only randomness of the order of flipping a coin ( Beth(0) )
Aleph is the first letter of the Hebrew Alphabet . It was used by Cantor to denote
Classes of Infinity (ie Aleph(0) for Rational numbers , Aleph(1) for Irrational Numbers , etc
Beth is the second letter of the Hebrew Alfabet . It means "House"
I will first repeat the derivation of Orders of Randomness from http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : "Orders of Randomness" because it is so important .
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Start Quote:
First , simple Randomness .
Flip of a coin .
Heads or Tails . 0 or 1
Flip an unbiased coin an infinite number of times ,write it down below each other and do it again .
All possible 0 and 1's
An example : Beth(0)
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Flips(1) 0,1,1,1,1,… etc
Flips(2) 0,1,1,1,0,… etc
.
Flips(infinity) 0,0,0,0,0,0,…etc
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This describes all possible states in a delineated binary universe .
"delineated binary" means a two sided coin which cannot land on it's side .
Now draw a diagonal line from the top left of Flips(1) to Flips(infinity) .
At every intersection of this diagonal line with a horizontal line , change the value .
The Diagonal Line of (0,1)'s is then not in the collection of all possible random
Horizontal coin-Flips(x) .
This means the Diagonal Line is of a stronger order of randomness .
This is also the standard proof of an Irrational Number .
This is the standard proof of aleph numbers .
Irrational numbers ,etc
Since any number can be written in binary (0,1) , we can infer that the order of randomness is the same as aleph numbers .
This means we can use number theory in Randomness systems .
Very important .
Google Cantor (or Kantor)
Define coin-flip Randomness as Beth(0) , analogous to Aleph(0)
Then we have at least Beth(1) , randomness an order stronger than flipping a coin .
Then we can theorize Beth(Omega) <->Aleph(Omega) .
End Quote
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Cardinal Numbers .
The cardinal number is the index x of Aleph(x) .
Cantor proved that
Aleph(n+1) = 2 ^ Aleph( n )
Where n is the cardinal number of the infinity .
Tying them together :
He also proved that
P(A) = 2^ n
Where A is any set , P(A) is the PowerSet of A and n is the cardinal number of set A
Thus , Cardinal Number of P(A) =(n+1)
The PowerSet of A = the Set of all subsets of A .
This sounds fancy , but it is simply all the different ways you can combine the elements of set A . All the ways you can chop up A .
You can see it easily in a finite binomial expansion (1+1)^n = P(A) = 2^n
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : "Infinite Probes"
There we also chop and dice , using infinite series .
Can you see how it all ties together ?
Why 2 ?
This derives from the Delineation Axiom . Remember , we can only talk about something if it is distinct and identifiable from something else . This gives a minimum of 2 states : part or non-part .
That is why the Zeta-function below is described on a 2-dimensional plane , or pesky problems like Primes always boil down to 2 dimensions of some sort .
This is why the irrational numbers play such an important part in physics .
Z=a+ib describes a 2-dimensional plane useful for delineated systems without feedback systems
Its in the axiom of Delineation , dummy .
But we know that Russell proved that A+~A<Universum .
The difference can be described as the Beth sequences . Since they are derivatives of summation-sequences(see below) , they define arrows usually seen as the time-arrows .
These need not to be described a-la-dunne's serial time , as different Beth levels address the problem adequately without multiplying hypotheses .
Self-referencing systems and Beth sequences .
A Proper Self-referencing system is of one cardinal Beth number higher than the system it derives from .
Self-referencing systems (feedback systems) can always be described as sequences of Beth systems . Ie as Beth(x) <-> Beth(y) . The formal proof is a bit long for inclusion here .
The easiest way to see it is in Bayesian systems . If Beth(x) systems are included , Bayesian systems become orders of magnitude more effective .
Life , civilization and markets are such . See below .
Conservation Laws :
By definition , these can always be written in a form of
SomeExpression = 0
Random (Beth(0) Walk in Euclidean 2-dimensions
This is a powerful unifying principle derived from the Delineation Axiom .
In Random Walk the Distance from the Center is = d * (n)^0.5 . This is a property of Euclidean systems .
(Where d = step , n=number of random beth(0) steps)
Immediately we can say that the only hope of the Walker returning to the center after an infinity of Beth(0) steps is if d ~ 1/(n)^0.5 . This is the Riemann Hypothesis .
Now , see a Universum of 2-dimensional descriptors z=a+ib
Sum all of them . Add together all the possible things that can be thus described .
This can be done as follows :
From z=a+ib Raise both sides to the e
e^(z) = e^(a) . e^i(b)
Raise both sides to the ln(j) power where j is real integers.
j^(z) = j^(a) . e^(b/ln(j))
Now , sum them :
Zeta=Sum of j^(z) for j=1 to infinity
Now we extract all possible statements that embody some Conservation Law . Beth(1)
This means that Zeta is zero for the set of extracted statements if and only if (b/ln(j)) is of the order of Beth(0) and a=(-1/2)
Tensors .
The above is a definition of a tensor for a discontinous function .
Riemann's Zeta function.
This can describe any delineated system .
If Zeta = 0 , conservation laws apply .
Zeta = Sigma(1/j )^z for j=1,2,3,…,infinity and z=a+ib , where z is complex and i =(-1)^0.5
The z bit is in two dimensions as discussed above .
This function has a deep underlying meaning for infinite systems .
If you unpack the Right-Hand side on a x-yi plane you get a graph that looks like a random walk .
If every point is visited that a random walk would visit over infinity (ie all) , without clumping , then Zeta can only be non-trivially zero if a=(-1/2) .
Why (x – yi) plane ? See "Why 2 " above . The system is fractal . Two dimensions are necessary in any delineated system .
Remember , randomwalk distance from origin = step*sqrt(number of steps) .
So if the steps = 1/ ( sqrt(number of steps) ) , then the Origin might be reached if and only if a= -1/2
This is easily proven .
If a= - 1/2 , then b can be any real function . This would include Beth(0) and Beth(1) , but not higher orders of beth .
If a= -1/2 and b is an unreal number , then a cannot be equal to -1/2 anymore . Conservation cannot hold at any level .
Consequences:
Conservation Laws can only hold for Beth(0) and Beth(1) systems .
This is forced by the two dimensions of delineation .
Mathematically , this means that Beth(2+) systems of feedbacks can only be described in terms of attractors or/and fractal systems (ie not in isolation)
Physically , conservation of energy and momentum need not hold for Beth(2+) systems .
This has an interesting corollary in decryption (unpacking) . A Beth(2) mind unpacking Beth(0) or Beth(1) encryption is functionally equivalent to Non-Conservation of Energy
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Appendix B
For Blast
Blast from the Past
Andre Willers
13 Jan 2012
Synopsis:
High intensities of gamma- and X-ray radiation on Earth from the center of our galaxy can be expected during 2013 AD , due to an infalling gas cloud into the central Milky Way black hole .
Discussion :
The discovery was made by Stefan Gillesson of the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics
in Garching , Germany .
References :
- "Nature" , DOI 10.1038/nature10652
- "New Scientist" 17 Dec 2011 p16 "Cloud suicide could transform black hole"
A gas cloud of an estimated three earth masses is expected to impact the supermassive , rotating black hole at the center of our galaxy ("Sagittarius A*") in 2013 AD . Note that radiation from this event can be expected shortly afterward in local time .
A large part of this mass will be converted to electro-magnetic energy .
Now , three earth masses is not a lot of energy in the galactic scheme of things , but the way it is distributed does .
Briefly , the energy release is characterized by very short wavelenghts (gamma or x-ray) and lobe-shaped distributions of the pulse-wavefronts in the galactic ecliptic .
There is a combination of relativistic and quantum effects in the last few cm's before the event horizon .
1.There is a slingshot effect , because the gas cloud must be lumpy , even if only at atomic scale . The gas cloud vanishes in a few Planck -time units , emitting very short-wave radiation due to differential tidal friction .
2.But the black hole is large and rotating , which forms time-bands of slower time , which gives enough time for feedback . Depending on the size and rotation speed of the black hole , this will lead to 2n lobes of wavefronts on the rotation equator , where n=1,2,3,...
3.Hawking Burps .
This process in para 2 above "foams" the event horizon , leading to a drastically increased Hawking radiation . (The "foam" would be something like Sierpinsky chaotic triangles)
The density and time-band concentrations of energy separates particle-anti-particle pairs to give Hawking radiation .
This burp of energy sweeps matter from the neighborhood of the black hole and reduces the mass of the black hole , preventing black holes from swallowing everything . Elegant .
4.Turning a Hawking Burp into a White Hole .
There is a narrow window where the Burp becomes self-sustaining . A large black hole then evaporates in an awesome release of energy . Even the tiniest random fluctuation (eg matter-antimatter) will get magnified and perpetuated .
Not the place to take your mother for a picnic .
5.Foaming Space-time .
Well , space-time is already foamed , but only to a simple level . (Quantum foam)
Call it Foam(0)
We can churn this to higher orders of foam (Foam(1) , Foam(2) , Foam(3) ,...,Foam(b) )
where b can be derived from Kantor's Aleph classes combined with chaos theory .
Taken to the logical extreme , this leaves only Foam ordered into Branes .
The smile on the Cheshire cat just after he brushed his teeth .
So what does this mean to us ?
A full frontal impact from a lobe will give a definitive answer to Fermi's Paradox : "Where are they ?" Why , extinct .
More likely is an immersion in the higher radiation levels alongside the lobes for a long time .
Can be survived , given enough warning .
Apply to the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics for more .
Friday the thirteenth can be quite a gas .
Andre
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Appendix Ostrum
The Ostrum Game
Andre Willers
30 Oct 2011
"One Game shall bind them all ." , ( with apologies to Tolkien)
"This time , we know for sure the grass is greener somewhere"
"A Revolution , any Revolution."
Synopsis :
A Game for Grown-ups .
The Eight Ostrum Design Principles are Meta-rules that generate self-consistent sets of rules that encompasses competition , co-operation , catastrophe , hierarchies and other systems undreamt of , all between discrete , interacting , self-organising systems .
Your avatar can go from SecondLife to Simworld , to War Worlds , to any desired locale .
Reality becomes a subset .
Discussion :
1.An incredible amount of money can be made .While money still has some meaning .
Without too much work . See Para 8 in Appendix A
Each Game Company is a base nested institution .
They bind easily together , releasing a lot of energy and money .
Explosive Feedback Synergism .
A run-up to the Singularity .
2.Feedback between Games and Reality :
The Meta-rules make no differentiation between Game-characters and Real-characters .
Indeed , many Real-characters have been spun into Game-characters , and vice-versa .
Think Sherlock Holmes , MacGyver , Gauss , young Werther etc
See "mirror-neuron networks" , any soap opera , etc .
Real-life problems get treated the same way as Game problems . The more diverse and sophisticated the Game interactions become , the more effect on any real or Game system .
Eventually , they become undistinguishable as technology progresses .
3.The Grass is provably greener somewhere .
Long known as a wishful thinking fallacy , until Ostrum published the Design Principles in 1990 .
This was the trigger event of under-the-surface knowledge about Ostrum Rules building up .
Suddenly , it became possible .
A Phase-change in the noosphere occurred .
It meant that a Disaster of the Commons or an Empire was not inevitable . Grandchildren could survive .
WE CAN MAKE THE GRASS GREENER , EVEN IF WE HAVE TO PAINT IT ONE BLADE AT A TIME .
Enormous tensions began surfacing . These effects are still playing out now .
A really , really major Hysterical Focus started forming , and is still intensifying .
Now , are you surprised that 1990 was the year of huge revolutions , when the USSR collapsed ?
The Ostrum Game beat the Ring of Power .
And you have not seen anything yet .
The pace of Revolutions is intensifying .
A good thing , if Homo wishes to escape extinction .
4.Automating Ostrum Rules :
They might be Meta-rules , but they are still rules .
We can certainly write programs that can serve to guide past most of the pitfalls and suggest alternatives .
5.Multicellular Bodies as Commons :
We can certainly analyze bodies in terms of Commons . The Dear Reader will find many interesting things if he does that .
Note the emphasis on communication .
Talk to your body . Aloud . And listen in the silences in between .
Create a virtual body and note the interactions .
Use the Ostrum Design principles .
6.Singularity :
It is immediately obvious that humans are then not limited to Real biochemical definitions of personality . The emphasis on communication means that personalities are distributed across Real and Game spaces . The Game space personality segments are only limited by internal non-contradictory rules . That can be done via Ostrum Design principles .
Not exactly instantaneous , but I can intuit that the time can be calculated . It would be less than real time .
The putative developing system would have ethical constraints on abandoning Real-part personalities under Ostrum Rules .
Told you it would be kindler , gentler .
7.Phase Change :
The system has already undergone an irrevocable phase change in 1990 .
You can fast-forward the rest .
8.Did Ostrum know what she was unleashing ?
The Revolutionary aspects , nearly certainly .
In her quiet way , she is one of the greatest Revolutionaries in Homo Sapiens history . Worthy of being called a Matriarch .
The Singularity aspect is more uncertain . She certainly knew that she unleashed major fairness , but the phase-change in the Noosphere I do not know .
Still , a tour-de-force .
How do feel like being a pet of your avatar ?
Andre .
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Appendix A
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elinor_Ostrom
To quote from Wiki : (comments in brackets are my own ).
" Ostrom identifies eight "design principles" of stable local common pool resource management:[10]
- Clearly defined boundaries (effective exclusion of external un-entitled parties;
- Rules regarding the appropriation and provision of common resources that are adapted to local conditions; (Equal sharing of debts and rewards)
- Collective-choice arrangements that allow most resource appropriators to participate in the decision-making process; (Consensus decisions-no leveraged hierarchies)
- Effective monitoring by monitors who are part of or accountable to the appropriators; (Policing)
- A scale of graduated sanctions for resource appropriators who violate community rules; (Opportunity to learn from mistakes )
- Mechanisms of conflict resolution that are cheap and of easy access; (Fair and Fast Justice . See how Inquisitorial Justice systems like Chinese , French or Sharia does it.)
- Self-determination of the community recognized by higher-level authorities; (Autonomy within clearly defined levels . Something like a Federation.)
- In the case of larger common-pool resources,organization in the form of multiple layers of nested enterprises, with small local CPRs at the base level. (Clear and quick relations with others. A potential sticky point with states.)
Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action Ostrom, Elinor, Cambridge University Press, 1990 "
The most important book in the Twentieth Century .
Try to read it .
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