Optimizing Soccer.

Optimizing Soccer.

A passion for the Beautiful Game

Andre Willers

5 Jan 2013

Synopsis :

The goal is put a ball inside a small area . This is a brutally simplistic analysis .

 

Discussion :

1.Goal area : 2.44 m by 7.32 m = 17.86 square meters . This is fixed .

1.1 The area of possible hits on the goal line is Pi*r^2 /2 . A half circle from the shot point .

This is (25/2)^2 * pi /2 = 245.4369 square meters from 25 meters .

2.What is the probability of random shots from within a 25 meters (yards) of the goal of getting inside the goalposts ?

It is 17.86 / 245.4369 = 0.072768

 

3.The number of shots at the goal in matches :

See http://www.soccerbythenumbers.com/2010/08/game-on-goal-and-shot-ratios-in-epl.html

The average numbers of shots at goal are 8-18

The average scores are 2-3 .

 

4.On random probability , we expect 0.072768 * (8 to 18) = (0.58 to 1.31) goals .

That is mostly a draw (0-0) or (1-0) win

 

 5. We have an actual score of 2-3 goals per match (either side) on certain matches . But also many draws .

 

6. What gives ?

The goal scoring is nearly random .

While this lends a certain charm to the game , maybe winning now and then would be nice .

 

7. Optimal strategy : decrease the losing area around the goal post .

Get as close as possible and shoot repeatedly .

8. Always try to keep the ball in play within 25 yards of the goal post . Try as many goal shots as possible . Never mind if the player thinks it would succeed . Just do it . The results are chaotic in any case . Make the odds work in your favour .

 

9.Allocation of resources :

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2008/01/infinite-probes-in-optimization.html

Defence : 1/3 , Offence 2/3  is optimal .

The aim is to win , not prevent losing .

 

10 Get lucky players .

 

May the best side win !

 

Andre

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