Humans should have been 22% richer in 2010.

Andre Willers

12 Feb 2014 .

Synopsis :

Wealth being measured as Energy usage per capita per year , things went wrong about 1970 . We should all have been richer by 22% in 2010 compared to our present state .

 

Discussion :

1.See excellent post http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/03/12/world-energy-consumption-since-1820-in-charts/

 

2.Figure 2 says it all . Copied here for your convenience .

As a rough estimate , annual per capita energy usage increased by about 35 GJ/pa  between 1920 to 1970 .

This gives an increase of 0.7 GJ per year . Thus , we should be consuming in 2010  GJ/pa per capita  0.7x40 +70 = 98 .

The actual figure is 80 GJ per capita . This is a 22.5% loss . This is over the whole planetary population . Huge .

 

3. Breaking it down per nation , some became drastically poorer , with concomitant unemployment figures .

USA , former USSR were the big losers .

See fig 7

4. What happened ?

My best estimate is that the cancellation of the Moon program and space-exploration had severe chaotic ripple effects .

This was no small butterfly !

For example , lack of proper orbital surveillance led to the surprise of the Yom Kippur war . This led directly to the OPEC oil boycott and the huge increase in energy prices .

Or , 9/11 would not even have been planned . Air Traffic control would have been from orbit , not the pathetic klutch it is still now .

 

5. What now ?

World GDP ~ $50 Trn

We should have been richer by 0.225x50 ~ $10 Trn

Quantitive Easing ~ $3Trn

If QE approaches 10 to 12 $Trn , really bad chaotic effects will appear . Essentially , the system would have run out of reserves .

Something like terminal Cheyne-Stoke Respirations: the change in the rhythm or breathing pattern noted in the end-phase of life. The irregular pattern is a shallow pant followed by periods of not breathing.

It is systemic effect , found in all chaotic systems nearing a phase-transition .

In stock-market terms , rapidly decreasing frequency of log-periods , with sideways flats . The good doctors interfere , here the Plunge Protector Teams . The end is the same , just slower and more agonizing .

 

6. What to do ?

Get into space in a hurry .

The system still has sufficient reserves .

Or else you are all toast .

Literally .

As humans turn Earth into another Venus .

 

Then the per capita worth of humans will be $0 .

A poor return .

Andre .

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