DROP Soccer.
Andre Willers .
23 May 2014
Synopsis :
Team Strategies are more important than individual skills in
soccer . Dynamic Random Optimized Position (DROP) soccer strategies can take a
team to the top .
Discussion :
1.The Scoring rate is nearly random .
See analysis in Appendix AA
The probability P(0) of scoring from an attempt at goal from
25 meters is P(0) ~ 0.072768 .
Actual experience closely matches this .
2.We now treat all passes , and hence ball position as
random .
3.The optimal magic scoring area is the half-circle with
radius 25 m from the center of the goal .
4.The probability p(1) of the ball being in this hemi-circle
:
P(1)= 0.5 x pi x (25)^2
/ (105 x 68) … where the sides of
the standard internation soccer pitch .
P(1) = 0.137499678
5. The probability of a player picking up the ball for a
goal shot inside the Magic Hemicircle (P(2) ):
P(2) = 0.0512 as calculated below .
Players took possession of the ball with about 4m of space.
Outside midfielders received the ball with more space (5m) while outside
defenders had the least space (3m).
A player with all-around situational awareness thus has a
critical ball space of pi x (4)^2 = 50.265 square meters around him
P(2) = 50.265 / (0.5 x pi x (25)^2 )
= 0.137499678
6. The probability of a random goal P(3) by a single player
at random :
Actually in a professional soccer game the average is
something between 400 and 450, with 500 being on the higher end.
The ball has to be passed to end up anywhere . Remember , we
posit randomness .
So , take 450 passes (chances to end up anywhere) as average
P(3) = P(0) x P(1) x P(2) x 450
= 0.072768 x 0.0512
x 0.137499678 x 450
= 0.0005122859
x 450
= 0.230528655
7.What does this mean ?
It means that team strategy is far more important than an individual
player’s skills .
It means that a player has to be in the Magic Hemicircle 1/0.230528655
~ 4.338 times during play to
score one goal , play being the 450 passes .
8. Strategic enhancement :
8.1 Increase the number of passes . Just kick the ball .
Anywhere , as often as possible .
8.2 Loiter as many players as possible in Magic Hemicircle
with orders to just kick at the goal the moment they got the ball .
There are many optimized loitering patterns .
Today , actual usage is in the multiple thousands in drone
missions . Think of your player as a drone
xxx
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repub.eur.nl/pub/22802/EI2011-07.pdf
by L Evers - 2011 - Cited by 9 - Related articles
location priorities, the arcs
model the flight path from
one target location to the
other, and the ... In this specific case the tours of the multiple UAVs are optimized over and around the ...
In this section we will provide some background on robust optimization theory that will be
used ..... a rectangular area
of size 15 by 15 units.
xxx
Of course , it works the other way as well .
A very good soccer player would be very good as a drone
pilot .
But I doubt if they would pay as well .
However , drone jockeys would be a fertile field for
recruitment of soccer players .
So , if you are a very good drone jockey , you can become a
rich and famous soccer player with trophy girlfriends dripping off you .
8.3 Increase situational awareness of players ( P(2) ) .
This is where most of the skill of present high-priced players lie . See drone
jockeys above .
9.Relative advantage :
A fascinating arms race will ensue . Randomness(and team
strategies) vs skill(individuals in teams) .
The Beautiful Game Strikes again !
Rugby might be a thugs game , but soccer is a Stiletto game
.
Andre
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Appendix AA
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/01/optimizing-soccer.html
Sunday,
January 05, 2014
Optimizing Soccer.
A
passion for the Beautiful Game
Andre Willers
5 Jan 2013
Synopsis :
The goal is put a ball inside a small area . This
is a brutally simplistic analysis .
Discussion :
1.Goal area : 2.44 m by 7.32 m = 17.86 square
meters . This is fixed .
1.1 The area of possible hits on the goal line is
Pi*r^2 /2 . A half circle from the shot point .
This is (25/2)^2 * pi /2 = 245.4369 square meters
from 25 meters .
2.What is the probability of random shots from
within a 25 meters (yards) of the goal of getting inside the goalposts ?
It is 17.86 / 245.4369 = 0.072768
3.The number of shots at the goal in matches :
The average numbers of shots at goal are 8-18
The average scores are 2-3 .
4.On random probability , we expect 0.072768 * (8
to 18) = (0.58 to 1.31) goals .
That is mostly a draw (0-0) or (1-0) win
5. We have an actual score of 2-3 goals per
match (either side) on certain matches . But also many draws .
6. What gives ?
The goal scoring is nearly random .
While this lends a certain charm to the game ,
maybe winning now and then would be nice .
7. Optimal strategy : decrease the losing area
around the goal post .
Get as close as possible and shoot repeatedly .
8. Always try to keep the ball in play within 25
yards of the goal post . Try as many goal shots as possible . Never mind if the
player thinks it would succeed . Just do it . The results are chaotic in any
case . Make the odds work in your favour .
9.Allocation of resources :
Defence : 1/3 , Offence 2/3 is optimal
.
The aim is to win , not prevent losing .
10 Get lucky players .
May the best side win !
Andre
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