Optimizing Soccer.
A passion for the Beautiful Game
Andre Willers
5 Jan 2013
Synopsis :
The goal is put a ball inside a small area . This is a
brutally simplistic analysis .
Discussion :
1.Goal area : 2.44 m by 7.32 m = 17.86 square meters . This
is fixed .
1.1 The area of possible hits on the goal line is Pi*r^2 /2
. A half circle from the shot point .
This is (25/2)^2 * pi /2 = 245.4369 square meters from 25
meters .
2.What is the probability of random shots from within a 25
meters (yards) of the goal of getting inside the goalposts ?
It is 17.86 / 245.4369 = 0.072768
3.The number of shots at the goal in matches :
The average numbers of shots at goal are 8-18
The average scores are 2-3 .
4.On random probability , we expect 0.072768 * (8 to 18) = (0.58
to 1.31) goals .
That is mostly a draw (0-0) or (1-0) win
5. We have an actual
score of 2-3 goals per match (either side) on certain matches . But also many
draws .
6. What gives ?
The goal scoring is nearly random .
While this lends a certain charm to the game , maybe winning
now and then would be nice .
7. Optimal strategy : decrease the losing area around the
goal post .
Get as close as possible and shoot repeatedly .
8. Always try to keep the ball in play within 25 yards of
the goal post . Try as many goal shots as possible . Never mind if the player
thinks it would succeed . Just do it . The results are chaotic in any case .
Make the odds work in your favour .
9.Allocation of resources :
Defence : 1/3 , Offence 2/3
is optimal .
The aim is to win , not prevent losing .
10 Get lucky players .
May the best side win !
Andre
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