5 Jan 2013
The goal is put a ball inside a small area . This is a brutally simplistic analysis .
1.Goal area : 2.44 m by 7.32 m = 17.86 square meters . This is fixed .
1.1 The area of possible hits on the goal line is Pi*r^2 /2 . A half circle from the shot point .
This is (25/2)^2 * pi /2 = 245.4369 square meters from 25 meters .
2.What is the probability of random shots from within a 25 meters (yards) of the goal of getting inside the goalposts ?
It is 17.86 / 245.4369 = 0.072768
3.The number of shots at the goal in matches :
The average numbers of shots at goal are 8-18
The average scores are 2-3 .
4.On random probability , we expect 0.072768 * (8 to 18) = (0.58 to 1.31) goals .
That is mostly a draw (0-0) or (1-0) win
5. We have an actual score of 2-3 goals per match (either side) on certain matches . But also many draws .
6. What gives ?
The goal scoring is nearly random .
While this lends a certain charm to the game , maybe winning now and then would be nice .
7. Optimal strategy : decrease the losing area around the goal post .
Get as close as possible and shoot repeatedly .
8. Always try to keep the ball in play within 25 yards of the goal post . Try as many goal shots as possible . Never mind if the player thinks it would succeed . Just do it . The results are chaotic in any case . Make the odds work in your favour .
9.Allocation of resources :
Defence : 1/3 , Offence 2/3 is optimal .
The aim is to win , not prevent losing .
10 Get lucky players .
May the best side win !