Financial Crisis 30 Apr 2009
Andre Willers
30 Apr 2009
Synopsis :
The movement of the Hysterical Focus from the Financial Crisis to the Mexican-flu Crisis enables the measures put into place to ameliorate the Financial Crisis to take effect without too much further interference from the Focus .
Discussion :
The Hysterical Focus .
The Friendly Giant .
The strong point of freedom-systems is the independent , multi-faceted , in-force approach to problems .
The weak point is the inability to concentrate forces when needed .
The evolutionary meme that evolved in the surviving societies was the Hysterical Focus .
"Hysterical" because all items outside the focus are excluded .
Humans are a hysterical species . Watch any group of apes in the zoo . This has evolved into a strong point .
They and the media have a very limited range . That is the whole point . (The Schwerpunkt , to be exact.)
"Focus" because all the resources of the society are mobilized on this particular problem .
(Think columns of armour advancing independently , then converging on the target co-ordinated by urgent command signals .
Blitz-krieg . The Hysterical Focus .)
This is very powerful , especially after mass-media was invented .
Anything in the Hysterical Focus gets amplified , examined from every angle . The whole resources of the society gets mobilized . Huge resources are allocated .
Long-term administrators use it to secure funding . Politicians , fashionistas and other various sundry hangers-on try to catch some of the largesse .
Media owners and journalists have a conceit that they steer the process , forgetting that they are just a part of the feedback process .
The Hysterical Focus has this teensy-weensy drawback : if it stays too long on one spot , the cure is worse than the disease .
The process lacks proper feedback-control safeguards . Something like an immune system overreacting (think SARS flu)
Normally , the Hysterical Focus moves on rapidly , as the short attention span of it's components (humans and media) is exhausted . Always a new Paris Hilton .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "The sources of the Nile"
The Financial Crisis was over in Oct 2008 (see previous posts on "Fin*******" in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com )
But the continued focus was beginning to harm recovery efforts by Apr 2009 .
Politicians (like Bush jr with 9/11) tried to keep the focus on the thing that gave them power , not realizing that more power is available by moving the focus on . Notice the adept use Clinton made of the effect .
So , the Mexican flu comes as a relief to the system . The Hysterical Focus has shifted to something that can be handled (since it has been handled before ) . Enormous resources will be allocated , careers will be made , institutes founded , bureaucracies initiated . The usual suspects .
The economic system will quietly rebound . The professionals would have gathered enough support to follow through on the enormous energies released on the problem while it was at the Hysterical Focus .
This is happening as we speak .
The economic consequences of Mexican Flu .
1.Food-production and distribution : nil .
Most food production not on subsistence level is done by machines with a few operators . Distribution is done by containerized holders or ships .
2.Others : these might even benefit , as costs are cut by limiting unnecessary travel .
3.The Losers: Third world countries . The tourism industry .
4.Big Winners : the gene-technology industry . A general flu vaccine was at the start of FDA certification . This will be fast-tracked . Vaccines in general might shift into a subsidiary Focus .
5. Short-term effects :
Barely a hiccup . Even if the mortality rate is 50% .
About 80% of the labour force is unnecessary to produce all the goods for society . The credit crunch means that they are not necessary for the consumer side , either .
6. Long-term effects : acceleration of change towards the singularity , as bio- and nano- safeguards are relaxed
The Hysterical Focus as an Artificial Intelligence .
This would be valid if there were boundary conditions . Even as is , I would classify it as AI(3.05) .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Artificial Intelligence"
It has one of the primary characteristics : elements of it (ie humans) cannot understand it or manipulate it successfully .
Infinite series like the reserve arguments are applicable , but is doubtful in steering . The system is self-aware to a degree (ie all those hardnosed editors , businessmen and politicians .)
This leads to some fascinating examples :
History and Power .
The Hysterical Focus is the fount of Power for humans . They fight and scheme to get there , then it burns them to frazzle .
Their problem was that they could not get out of the focus . It followed them .
Recent examples : LouisIV , Napoleon , Stalin , Hitler , Mao.
They were forced into playing the roles at the apex of power that they crafted themselves into .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Competition and Co-operation"
It turned them crazy . They were at most AI(2.25) , trying to handle problems AI(3.1) would be pressed for .
Those who managed to duck by passing the buck : (that we know of)
Washington (who did it while leaving a legacy) . Not bad for a farmer . Much underrated .
Kemal Ataturk (who showed that it can be done in the modern age)
Wellington (the Turtle-finger defence .) . Hunker down and show the Focus the Finger .
Washington was more effective , but Ataturk 's job was more difficult . Both were lucky . But Ataturk made most of his own luck by manipulating long-term probabilities .
Still , Washington managed to set up a system where the Hysterical Focus passes on fairly regularly (by declining the Kingship)
Ataturk did the same .
What does this have to do with the Financial Crisis on 30 Apr 2009 ?
Why , everything .
The systems are accustomed to a moving Hysterical Focus . Boundary conditions are slowly seeping in as the system evolves towards AI(4) . The USA is more comfortable with Turkey as an ally than with most European countries . (Their founders , Washington and Ataturk , were brothers under the skin.)
A quiet Spine is emerging : USA and Turkey , with Mexico and India as junior partners . High-tech with man-power . And a liveable compromise with Islam .
The whole Middle East is kept alive by US subsidies to Egypt ( Ramses would never have gotten into this fix!) .
If they cease this , Egypt has a choice of seizing the Saudi-Arabian oilfields or starving . Attacking Israel is not even an option .
But this window is rapidly passing (http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Negative Pressure : An Important Update ." ) .
July to Aug 2009 will see a big change .
The Hysterical Focus will pass to the Middle East , an ever popular destination . Why , if it did not exist , one might think that it would need to be invented .
The world economy would quietly knit itself back together .
The Bright Star has passed . For now .
The Lidless Eye .
Tolkien must have had some acquaintance with accountancy firms .
They see everything but observe nothing .
But the random Hysterical Focus overrides all . This threat will concentrate many minds wonderfully .
Isn't randomness a wonderful thing ?
The wicked does not flee when nobody pursues , but they damn'well do if there is a finite probability that the Lidless Eye will turn in their direction . Especially if the full force is at random .
Can you see the Lidless Eye sighing for the days of Mordor ?
At least it would have known what to with the Wizards of Enron .
Andre.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Mexican Flu – 0 .
Mexican Flu – 0 .
Andre Willers
26 Apr 2009
Synopsis :
Here we go again .
The danger is high (80%+) that the Big One has arrived .
A genetic combination of human , swine and avian flu .
Still called Swine Flu . Google it . (There is a good map on Google . CDC and WHO are of no use .
Discussion :
Like all big disasters , it blew up suddenly on Thu , 23 Apr 2009 from inception at 13 Apr 2009 (date Zero)
I became consciously aware of it on the morning of 26 Apr 2009 . What a birthday present !
Status as at 22h00 on Sun 26 Apr 2009 is:
Mexico alone : 81 dead out of 1324 possibles (8% mortality) .
But it is spreading with terrifying rapidity from human to human .
Cases from California , Texas , New York , New Zealand , Spain , Israel , France have been reported .
The bad news is that the dead thus far has been between ages 3 to 60 .
The healthy immune systems are being targeted . This is similar to Spanish Flu (mortality rate 5% , eventual dead about 100 million) and SARS (mortality rate 50% , eventual dead about 1000)
But containment seems to have already been breached .
If we are lucky , mortality will not exceed 10% (500 million) .
This situation has been exhaustively discussed in the "Birdflu"+"xxxxx" posts from 3/10/2006 to 27/2/2006
During the last warning up-flare .
See my files in david.zip
See also http://andrswhy.blogspot.com "Hadrian and Critical Plague Mass" . This was written before I became aware of this plague outbreak , but the arguments remain valid . The outbreak occurred where one would have expected it , namely at the gates of the Mexican-USA wall .
When reading the Birdflu arguments , please note the case for a mechanism limiting population numbers via an evolutionary mechanism of poorly guarding a portal like CCR5 .
There is a high probability of a massive drop in human fertility after this flu .
The survivors would be very sensitive to environmental pollution .
If humans want to procreate , certainly . But in an unpolluted environment .
See "Birdflu Survival Update-7" of 27/02/2006
This type of priming occurred before with the Spanish Flu (March-May 1918) before the actual onslaught during Aug-Dec 1918 .
Remember what Nietsche's sister said :
"It is megalomania only if you are not a goddess ."
Andre .
Andre Willers
26 Apr 2009
Synopsis :
Here we go again .
The danger is high (80%+) that the Big One has arrived .
A genetic combination of human , swine and avian flu .
Still called Swine Flu . Google it . (There is a good map on Google . CDC and WHO are of no use .
Discussion :
Like all big disasters , it blew up suddenly on Thu , 23 Apr 2009 from inception at 13 Apr 2009 (date Zero)
I became consciously aware of it on the morning of 26 Apr 2009 . What a birthday present !
Status as at 22h00 on Sun 26 Apr 2009 is:
Mexico alone : 81 dead out of 1324 possibles (8% mortality) .
But it is spreading with terrifying rapidity from human to human .
Cases from California , Texas , New York , New Zealand , Spain , Israel , France have been reported .
The bad news is that the dead thus far has been between ages 3 to 60 .
The healthy immune systems are being targeted . This is similar to Spanish Flu (mortality rate 5% , eventual dead about 100 million) and SARS (mortality rate 50% , eventual dead about 1000)
But containment seems to have already been breached .
If we are lucky , mortality will not exceed 10% (500 million) .
This situation has been exhaustively discussed in the "Birdflu"+"xxxxx" posts from 3/10/2006 to 27/2/2006
During the last warning up-flare .
See my files in david.zip
See also http://andrswhy.blogspot.com "Hadrian and Critical Plague Mass" . This was written before I became aware of this plague outbreak , but the arguments remain valid . The outbreak occurred where one would have expected it , namely at the gates of the Mexican-USA wall .
When reading the Birdflu arguments , please note the case for a mechanism limiting population numbers via an evolutionary mechanism of poorly guarding a portal like CCR5 .
There is a high probability of a massive drop in human fertility after this flu .
The survivors would be very sensitive to environmental pollution .
If humans want to procreate , certainly . But in an unpolluted environment .
See "Birdflu Survival Update-7" of 27/02/2006
This type of priming occurred before with the Spanish Flu (March-May 1918) before the actual onslaught during Aug-Dec 1918 .
Remember what Nietsche's sister said :
"It is megalomania only if you are not a goddess ."
Andre .
Friday, April 24, 2009
The First World War .
The First World War .
Andre Willers .
25 Apr 2009
Can you win WWI quickly ?
I thought it would be a doddle , even using just technology of the time .
Just send in the tanks .
The sad truth seems to be that humans had painted themselves into a corner where only a war of attrition could give victory . Something like MAD(Mutual Assured Destruction) .
Discussion :
1.Send in the tanks .
The artillery would have massacred them . You could have sent in columns of Abrahams tanks , and they would not have gotten further than 20 km .
Both sides had heavy artillery , wheel-to-wheel for kilometers in depth and very mobile .
Thousands per kilometer . Literally . Across the whole front . And every meter of it was ranged .
Any column of armour (of any era) would simply have been blown away by massed plunging heavy artillery .
I once read a colonel's attempt to explain why they did what they did . He said that is was essentially an artillery duel , and they used infantry to pin and spot the opposing artillery positions . If the opponents tried to move their artillery to avoid counter-battery fire , the infantry would gain . So they were pinned or lost ground in the critical hour or so it took to move a battery of heavy artillery .
Tanks made no difference . They just got destroyed faster , because the infantry spotters hated them . Which is why they were dispersed . A column of tanks would have made a really juicy target for the artillery .
So how did the Germans win in WWII ?
Dive-bombers . The humble Stuka .
The pilot was the spotter and the cannonier in one . Closely followed by a column of armour , co-ordinated by tactical doctrine and radio .
The dive-bombers were pin-point enough to blow a hole in the opposing artillery , long enough that the column of armour can bypass the artillery killing zone . This was Blitzkrieg .
This would not have worked in WWI , because there was no line (like the Maginot Line) . There was just kilometer on kilometer of mobile heavy artillery .
There would have been needed thousands of dive-bombers to take out thousands of artillery pieces . Which is exactly what the Americans did in WWII with the Mustangs and air superiority . Even then , it was a slog .
Can we use this in WWI ?
Alas , no . The spotter planes of the time could not give accurate co-ordinates to the counter-artillery , simply because they did not know where they were . This was a problem not solved until GPS , though some inaccurate attempts were made in WWII using Radio Beams .
The weapon (bomb) had to be in the plane with the trusty old mark one eyeball .
And WWI planes simply did not have the capability of dive-bombing with any accuracy to take out an embedded heavy artillery piece .
So , tanks and aircraft are out .
2. Hovercraft .
The technology for this existed since steam turbines were invented . (Circa 1890's) Hovercraft also has the characteristic that they become more efficient , the larger they are . A warcraft of a million tons could easily have been constructed in the early 1900's . A weapons platform of multiple layers of steel armour and reinforced concrete , with a runway for aircraft on top and heavy embedded artillery could easily and quickly have been constructed . Just stick a number of battleships on top for firepower . .
Heavy artillery could still blow it to smithereens , but the key is speed .
This would have been a strategic weapon . Punch through the defences and head straight for Berlin .As long as they had surprise , the war would have been over .
If not , the Germans would cobbled up their own . Can you see million-ton behemoths battling it out over the European plains (ideal country for really large hovercraft) ?
Modular hovercraft .
Because the structure does not have to be mechanically strong (the air pressure acts on every square centimeter independently of the neighbouring cm^2 ) , any number can be linked up . A thousand one thousand ton units can be linked up to give a platform of a million tons . This has not been done in our timeline , mainly because of historical and economical reasons . Nobody in Europe wants to see million ton heavily armoured tank-carriers and aircraft carriers careening across their plains at speeds of hundreds of km/hr ..
But we might see them in the Arctic Oil Wars .
3. Attack through the Baltic (St Petersburg)
I still have difficulty in understanding why they did not inveigle the German Navy into attacking them by opening up a front in St Petersburg . Why bother with Gallipoli ? Churchill was obsessed with his mistakes during the Goebbens affair .
The Battle of Jutland gave them a scare , but what would Nelson have said ?
They were either cowards , or the strategic objective was always to let Germany bleed France and Russia .
By threatening aid to Russia via St Petersburg , the English would have been on the strategical offensive and tactical defensive . They could have annihilated the German fleet in detail . Instead , they sat at Scapa Flow .
This was actually the war-plan during the Crimean War . An attack on Kronstadt (the fortress outside St Petersburg) was in final stages before it was cancelled . So , the strategic concept of pincering European powers was well-known .
So , you can win WWI quickly without any extra technology . Mine the German harbour approaches heavily and send continuous feints . They have to respond . Bleed them , then blow them out of the water when they seem weak enough . The English were inside their command loop .
This wouldn't have worked in WWII because of aircraft and RF positioning
4. Nuclear weapons on the front .
Unless the weapons took out an appreciable chunk of the heavy-artillery belt , nothing would have changed . The troops were hardened to chemical explosives in the kiloton range (the scale of barrages) and chemical attacks .This included the critical element , the gunners in the heavy artillery . Their casualty rate exceeded that of troopies on the front , but nobody spares a thought for them because a vague resentment and blame still lingers . Without them , the War would have been over by Christmas . Never mind the machine guns .
And so it goes .
Andre
Andre Willers .
25 Apr 2009
Can you win WWI quickly ?
I thought it would be a doddle , even using just technology of the time .
Just send in the tanks .
The sad truth seems to be that humans had painted themselves into a corner where only a war of attrition could give victory . Something like MAD(Mutual Assured Destruction) .
Discussion :
1.Send in the tanks .
The artillery would have massacred them . You could have sent in columns of Abrahams tanks , and they would not have gotten further than 20 km .
Both sides had heavy artillery , wheel-to-wheel for kilometers in depth and very mobile .
Thousands per kilometer . Literally . Across the whole front . And every meter of it was ranged .
Any column of armour (of any era) would simply have been blown away by massed plunging heavy artillery .
I once read a colonel's attempt to explain why they did what they did . He said that is was essentially an artillery duel , and they used infantry to pin and spot the opposing artillery positions . If the opponents tried to move their artillery to avoid counter-battery fire , the infantry would gain . So they were pinned or lost ground in the critical hour or so it took to move a battery of heavy artillery .
Tanks made no difference . They just got destroyed faster , because the infantry spotters hated them . Which is why they were dispersed . A column of tanks would have made a really juicy target for the artillery .
So how did the Germans win in WWII ?
Dive-bombers . The humble Stuka .
The pilot was the spotter and the cannonier in one . Closely followed by a column of armour , co-ordinated by tactical doctrine and radio .
The dive-bombers were pin-point enough to blow a hole in the opposing artillery , long enough that the column of armour can bypass the artillery killing zone . This was Blitzkrieg .
This would not have worked in WWI , because there was no line (like the Maginot Line) . There was just kilometer on kilometer of mobile heavy artillery .
There would have been needed thousands of dive-bombers to take out thousands of artillery pieces . Which is exactly what the Americans did in WWII with the Mustangs and air superiority . Even then , it was a slog .
Can we use this in WWI ?
Alas , no . The spotter planes of the time could not give accurate co-ordinates to the counter-artillery , simply because they did not know where they were . This was a problem not solved until GPS , though some inaccurate attempts were made in WWII using Radio Beams .
The weapon (bomb) had to be in the plane with the trusty old mark one eyeball .
And WWI planes simply did not have the capability of dive-bombing with any accuracy to take out an embedded heavy artillery piece .
So , tanks and aircraft are out .
2. Hovercraft .
The technology for this existed since steam turbines were invented . (Circa 1890's) Hovercraft also has the characteristic that they become more efficient , the larger they are . A warcraft of a million tons could easily have been constructed in the early 1900's . A weapons platform of multiple layers of steel armour and reinforced concrete , with a runway for aircraft on top and heavy embedded artillery could easily and quickly have been constructed . Just stick a number of battleships on top for firepower . .
Heavy artillery could still blow it to smithereens , but the key is speed .
This would have been a strategic weapon . Punch through the defences and head straight for Berlin .As long as they had surprise , the war would have been over .
If not , the Germans would cobbled up their own . Can you see million-ton behemoths battling it out over the European plains (ideal country for really large hovercraft) ?
Modular hovercraft .
Because the structure does not have to be mechanically strong (the air pressure acts on every square centimeter independently of the neighbouring cm^2 ) , any number can be linked up . A thousand one thousand ton units can be linked up to give a platform of a million tons . This has not been done in our timeline , mainly because of historical and economical reasons . Nobody in Europe wants to see million ton heavily armoured tank-carriers and aircraft carriers careening across their plains at speeds of hundreds of km/hr ..
But we might see them in the Arctic Oil Wars .
3. Attack through the Baltic (St Petersburg)
I still have difficulty in understanding why they did not inveigle the German Navy into attacking them by opening up a front in St Petersburg . Why bother with Gallipoli ? Churchill was obsessed with his mistakes during the Goebbens affair .
The Battle of Jutland gave them a scare , but what would Nelson have said ?
They were either cowards , or the strategic objective was always to let Germany bleed France and Russia .
By threatening aid to Russia via St Petersburg , the English would have been on the strategical offensive and tactical defensive . They could have annihilated the German fleet in detail . Instead , they sat at Scapa Flow .
This was actually the war-plan during the Crimean War . An attack on Kronstadt (the fortress outside St Petersburg) was in final stages before it was cancelled . So , the strategic concept of pincering European powers was well-known .
So , you can win WWI quickly without any extra technology . Mine the German harbour approaches heavily and send continuous feints . They have to respond . Bleed them , then blow them out of the water when they seem weak enough . The English were inside their command loop .
This wouldn't have worked in WWII because of aircraft and RF positioning
4. Nuclear weapons on the front .
Unless the weapons took out an appreciable chunk of the heavy-artillery belt , nothing would have changed . The troops were hardened to chemical explosives in the kiloton range (the scale of barrages) and chemical attacks .This included the critical element , the gunners in the heavy artillery . Their casualty rate exceeded that of troopies on the front , but nobody spares a thought for them because a vague resentment and blame still lingers . Without them , the War would have been over by Christmas . Never mind the machine guns .
And so it goes .
Andre
Hadrian and Critical Plague Mass .
Hadrian and Critical Plague Mass .
Andre Willers
25 Apr 2009
Synopsis .
Hadrian caused the plagues of circa 130 AD by building the limes .
Discussion :
After the disasterous campaigns of Trajan in the east (circa 117 AD) , Hadrian decided that that the Empire was overextended and consolidation was called for . He purged the army hawks .
He then set about replacing the open borders with limes .
To quote "History Today" Aug 2008 p19 ,
"On the frontiers , open lines controlled by forts , signal stations and patrols , were replaced by continuous linear barriers formed of ditches , palisades and walls " . Hadrian's wall in Britain is a good surviving example .
The critical effect :
The population passing through the frontiers now were funneled through a few portals . There was always a delay on both sides of the frontier . Squalid shanty-towns without any of the usual Roman hygienic measures became features at every gate , especially on the barbarian side .
These were bio-reactors for disease . (Still dangerous today : avoid the soil .)
Disease-vectors , both human and animal , that remained reasonable dispersed before the limes , were now concentrated at the gates at the frontier .
The mathematics of epidemiology is well known . The critical factors are closeness of contact and number of contagious individuals .
Visualization :
See the flow of humans through the gates as water with the disease vectors as red streaks .
They come together from all over Asia . The red streaks come closer and closer as they are squeezed to the gates .
Before and after the gates turbulence forms knots of red lines in close proximity to form standing waves : the shanty town bio-reactors .
The result was inevitable : the so-called Antonine plagues that decreased the Roman Empire's population by about a third . This happened about 130 AD . This was worse than the Black Death of 1348 AD , since the Roman Empire depended on a large supply of manpower . Revolts broke out all over the place (cf Jewish Rebellion of 132-136 AD under Bar Kokhba) .
The Army started to recruit barbarians on large scale and the Roman civilizing system kicked into high-gear in an ersatz fashion, using the Army
This cycle of plagues and barbarian recruitment lasted until Constantine the Great dismantled the limes and instituted the Knights-and-Castles defence strategy of the Feudal Ages .
The Western Roman Empire re-invented itself as the combination Roman Catholic Church (fight to the death) and the Army as Knights-and-Castles (to counter the light-horsemen like the Huns) .
Can you see the Roman roots ? A Roman of Republican days would have felt at home until the Black Death and the Renaissance .
In a sense , the Western Roman Empire never fell . It just transformed itself by incorporating and civilizing the barbarians .
In contrast to the Eastern Roman Empire , which crystalised and did shatter in 1453 AD with the fall of Constantinople .
An Interesting Question .
Did somebody in Constantine the Great's day make the correlation ? Notice the speed and thoroughness in which the limes were completely demolished . Hadrian's Wall in Britain survived because the number of individuals in Scotland was too small to form a critical mass . Notice how Britain was plundered for man-power , and was a continual source of rebellions .
The only countries on the frontiers that had no limes were the lowlands of Netherlands and Belgium . They also never decivilized or depopulated . This is one of the reasons why ,
An Interesting Exercise for the Reader .
This effect would occur in any gated system .
(Dams , osmotic membranes , cell-receptor sites and channels , walled cities , gated suburbs , the Mexican Wall in the US , the Wall in Germany , the Great Wall in China , military camps during a siege , walled cities , etc)
Model the state of the system using epidiomology , chaotic attractors , evolutionary theory , immunology .
Calculate the probability spread of surviving populations as a function of time , location and inter-communication .
Model the 1918 flu as a function of gates in the military and civilian establishments . (There should be a non-random correlation .)
The future :
Ignorance of evolutionary principles killed the Romans . They had workable hygiene system . But they did not realize that their system was gathering , distilling , breeding and evolving the diseases that would do them in .
The same is happening today .
It is pointless in the long-run to wash your hands after flushing the toilet if just over the wall the shanty-bioreactors are cooking up ever more virulent life-forms . And if there is a gate .
Or behind the dam-wall , the hyacinths are growing tougher and tougher .
Bird-Flu and the Financial Crisis .
If protectionism , whether economic or national , is instituted , gates will be formed , with the concomitant bio-reactors .
A massive bird-flu pandemic then becomes inevitable .
Ignorance kills .
Or , as the Havamal says ,
What you think you know If you do not gnaw
But is not so The string of Norns
Will feed the Bough It will not span your bow
And you thought the huptameter was hard !
Andre .
Andre Willers
25 Apr 2009
Synopsis .
Hadrian caused the plagues of circa 130 AD by building the limes .
Discussion :
After the disasterous campaigns of Trajan in the east (circa 117 AD) , Hadrian decided that that the Empire was overextended and consolidation was called for . He purged the army hawks .
He then set about replacing the open borders with limes .
To quote "History Today" Aug 2008 p19 ,
"On the frontiers , open lines controlled by forts , signal stations and patrols , were replaced by continuous linear barriers formed of ditches , palisades and walls " . Hadrian's wall in Britain is a good surviving example .
The critical effect :
The population passing through the frontiers now were funneled through a few portals . There was always a delay on both sides of the frontier . Squalid shanty-towns without any of the usual Roman hygienic measures became features at every gate , especially on the barbarian side .
These were bio-reactors for disease . (Still dangerous today : avoid the soil .)
Disease-vectors , both human and animal , that remained reasonable dispersed before the limes , were now concentrated at the gates at the frontier .
The mathematics of epidemiology is well known . The critical factors are closeness of contact and number of contagious individuals .
Visualization :
See the flow of humans through the gates as water with the disease vectors as red streaks .
They come together from all over Asia . The red streaks come closer and closer as they are squeezed to the gates .
Before and after the gates turbulence forms knots of red lines in close proximity to form standing waves : the shanty town bio-reactors .
The result was inevitable : the so-called Antonine plagues that decreased the Roman Empire's population by about a third . This happened about 130 AD . This was worse than the Black Death of 1348 AD , since the Roman Empire depended on a large supply of manpower . Revolts broke out all over the place (cf Jewish Rebellion of 132-136 AD under Bar Kokhba) .
The Army started to recruit barbarians on large scale and the Roman civilizing system kicked into high-gear in an ersatz fashion, using the Army
This cycle of plagues and barbarian recruitment lasted until Constantine the Great dismantled the limes and instituted the Knights-and-Castles defence strategy of the Feudal Ages .
The Western Roman Empire re-invented itself as the combination Roman Catholic Church (fight to the death) and the Army as Knights-and-Castles (to counter the light-horsemen like the Huns) .
Can you see the Roman roots ? A Roman of Republican days would have felt at home until the Black Death and the Renaissance .
In a sense , the Western Roman Empire never fell . It just transformed itself by incorporating and civilizing the barbarians .
In contrast to the Eastern Roman Empire , which crystalised and did shatter in 1453 AD with the fall of Constantinople .
An Interesting Question .
Did somebody in Constantine the Great's day make the correlation ? Notice the speed and thoroughness in which the limes were completely demolished . Hadrian's Wall in Britain survived because the number of individuals in Scotland was too small to form a critical mass . Notice how Britain was plundered for man-power , and was a continual source of rebellions .
The only countries on the frontiers that had no limes were the lowlands of Netherlands and Belgium . They also never decivilized or depopulated . This is one of the reasons why ,
An Interesting Exercise for the Reader .
This effect would occur in any gated system .
(Dams , osmotic membranes , cell-receptor sites and channels , walled cities , gated suburbs , the Mexican Wall in the US , the Wall in Germany , the Great Wall in China , military camps during a siege , walled cities , etc)
Model the state of the system using epidiomology , chaotic attractors , evolutionary theory , immunology .
Calculate the probability spread of surviving populations as a function of time , location and inter-communication .
Model the 1918 flu as a function of gates in the military and civilian establishments . (There should be a non-random correlation .)
The future :
Ignorance of evolutionary principles killed the Romans . They had workable hygiene system . But they did not realize that their system was gathering , distilling , breeding and evolving the diseases that would do them in .
The same is happening today .
It is pointless in the long-run to wash your hands after flushing the toilet if just over the wall the shanty-bioreactors are cooking up ever more virulent life-forms . And if there is a gate .
Or behind the dam-wall , the hyacinths are growing tougher and tougher .
Bird-Flu and the Financial Crisis .
If protectionism , whether economic or national , is instituted , gates will be formed , with the concomitant bio-reactors .
A massive bird-flu pandemic then becomes inevitable .
Ignorance kills .
Or , as the Havamal says ,
What you think you know If you do not gnaw
But is not so The string of Norns
Will feed the Bough It will not span your bow
And you thought the huptameter was hard !
Andre .
Cause and Effect
Cause and Effect
Andre Willers
22 Apr 2009
Iterative feedback in Aristotelian systems .
Synopsis :
Humans using Aristotelian logic have major problems with cause and effect .
Discussion :
Humans see event chains :
CauseA(1) -> EffectB(1) = CauseA(2) -> EffectB(2) = CauseA(3) -> EffectB(3) = CauseA(4) -> EffectB(4) …
Note CauseA(2) = EffectB(1) . The effect is the cause in the next step of the chain .
The Aristotelian question is whether A causes B . This can barely be answered in those terms if there is no feedback .
But if there is feedback (ie CauseA(n) = EffectB(n+x) ) , then the whole question becomes a meaningless noise .
It is impossible to logically disentangle causes and effects .
But humans persist (especially their command-and-control systems (ie politicians and scientists) )
A question such as " Will raising the interest rates lower the inflation rate ? " is a meaningless noise . The historical success rate of this policy has been far less than 50% .
A factory owner using this approach will go bankrupt (and many have : see Goldratt and the demise of the conglomerates)
The problem can and has been solved . By the military.
Or use http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "New Tools"
These problems have been seen and resolved , albeit on a piecewise basis .
The failure lies in the academic establishment . Sloppy thought and self-interest .
They have frozen out all new thought . Most good scientists do not even bother to publish in peer-reviewed journals any more (see www.arxiv.org )
I can predict that economic policy in future will be more and more influenced by the military-industrial complex . This last economic crash can be directly traced to incorrect theories by academics , who never ran a business in their life . And when they did , they nearly collapsed the whole system . Not once or twice , but a whopping three times (LTCM , dotcom , credit)
Or to put it in military terms , the military is inside the academic control loop .
So , are we in for a rerun of the later-Roman Empire ?
Actually , not so bad . The US Army is about the last really democratic institution left in the country .
They accept nearly anyone (ie the barbarians in their cities) and immigrants and turn them into disciplined citizens .
They may bear arms .
The Army controls a large part of the GDP .
This last idiocy means they will be influencing not only R&D , but also economic policy .
A silent coup .
The politicians cannot understand cause and effect any more .
In a nuclear armed country with overkill capability , this is extremely dangerous .
So , young man , forget Yale and Harvard . Go west . Go to West Point .
Andre .
Andre Willers
22 Apr 2009
Iterative feedback in Aristotelian systems .
Synopsis :
Humans using Aristotelian logic have major problems with cause and effect .
Discussion :
Humans see event chains :
CauseA(1) -> EffectB(1) = CauseA(2) -> EffectB(2) = CauseA(3) -> EffectB(3) = CauseA(4) -> EffectB(4) …
Note CauseA(2) = EffectB(1) . The effect is the cause in the next step of the chain .
The Aristotelian question is whether A causes B . This can barely be answered in those terms if there is no feedback .
But if there is feedback (ie CauseA(n) = EffectB(n+x) ) , then the whole question becomes a meaningless noise .
It is impossible to logically disentangle causes and effects .
But humans persist (especially their command-and-control systems (ie politicians and scientists) )
A question such as " Will raising the interest rates lower the inflation rate ? " is a meaningless noise . The historical success rate of this policy has been far less than 50% .
A factory owner using this approach will go bankrupt (and many have : see Goldratt and the demise of the conglomerates)
The problem can and has been solved . By the military.
Or use http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "New Tools"
These problems have been seen and resolved , albeit on a piecewise basis .
The failure lies in the academic establishment . Sloppy thought and self-interest .
They have frozen out all new thought . Most good scientists do not even bother to publish in peer-reviewed journals any more (see www.arxiv.org )
I can predict that economic policy in future will be more and more influenced by the military-industrial complex . This last economic crash can be directly traced to incorrect theories by academics , who never ran a business in their life . And when they did , they nearly collapsed the whole system . Not once or twice , but a whopping three times (LTCM , dotcom , credit)
Or to put it in military terms , the military is inside the academic control loop .
So , are we in for a rerun of the later-Roman Empire ?
Actually , not so bad . The US Army is about the last really democratic institution left in the country .
They accept nearly anyone (ie the barbarians in their cities) and immigrants and turn them into disciplined citizens .
They may bear arms .
The Army controls a large part of the GDP .
This last idiocy means they will be influencing not only R&D , but also economic policy .
A silent coup .
The politicians cannot understand cause and effect any more .
In a nuclear armed country with overkill capability , this is extremely dangerous .
So , young man , forget Yale and Harvard . Go west . Go to West Point .
Andre .
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Competition and Co-operation
Competition and Co-operation
Andre Willers
22 Apr 2009
Synopsis:
Why are the dominant civilizations at the present moment "First past the Post" competitions ?
Answer : to encourage co-operation .
Non-Darwinnian selection is more important than Darwinnian selection .
( Non-Darwinnian selection is for co-operation .
Darwinnian selection is for competition .)
Discussion :
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Why genes?" for a discussion at a very low level .
Sociological systems are more distinct in certain ways and more complex
Do I compete , co-operate or drag my feet ?
This is a question every individual sophont in every society across the universe asks himself every day .
Competition .
Competition carries the risk of failure . Failure is an error , with penalties.
Can you survive the draw-down resulting from the error ?
This brings the powerful arguments of Reserves to bear .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "New tools : Infinite Probes : reserves"
In this context , reserves can be interpreted as Co-operation .
So does dragging your feet .
Co-operatives like organizations and families enables individuals to compete 62% - 72% of the time , and survive the experience . Learning from it .
Losing a competition is not fatal .
This is the major advantage of societies and multicellular organizations .
Refining it:
The probability of succeeding in a competition is not spread evenly .
Eg The fastest runner will win most of the time . But , he will get older .
Seniority :
Most organizations promote by seniority . People who have learned to co-operate . An essential bedrock for any high-flyers .
Another way of putting it , is that a society that does not promote by seniority will not last long . One of the driving forces of the present economic crisis is the selfishness of the managers .
They are not being co-operative in the basic sense of the word .
1. Too much competition .
Historical examples :
Ancient Greeks.
Xenophon's " Anabasis" . It is difficult for a circa 2100 AD Western person to understand how a military system could function where any commander at any level could be voted out and replaced at any time .
Yet , function it did . And very effectively too .
They survived by simply robbing anybody nearby who was weaker .
This is an instance where Co-operation is far below the 28% level .
Vikings
"Bare is the back without a brother to guard it" says it all .
The Havamal should be required reading for any wanna-be savage .
Nazis
Another instance is the Fuehrer-prinzip of Nazi-Germany .
Every post was competed and fought over .
Competition was driven to levels below reserves .
This led to a huge explosion of innovation , as each individual drove his idea to the exclusion of everything else .
The ancient Greeks , Vikings and Nazi's were some of the most innovative eras . As each Fuehrer drove his idea forward .
The price was social cohesiveness , by definition .
A Nazi , a Viking and an ancient Greek would have understood each other perfectly , while competing to death .
2. Too much co-operation and too little competition .
Reserves more than 38%
This is better known from "Rights of Kings" , aristocracy and class-systems . The death of the European nobility .
The death of the Nomenklatura .
An interesting aside :
The British India Civil Service .
Another "first-past-the-post" exam .
But what happened to the losers ? They stayed behind to rule Britain .
And ruined the British Empire in the process .
Talk about shooting yourself in the foot .
What happened ?
Each yearly echelon of graduates (at least thirty echelons between 1870 and 1900) tried the exams . About fifty per year were chosen .
The remaining thousands had to learn to co-operate in the Civil Service . But all still very smart cookies ,
The civil service slowly gelled into an co-operative enterprise , with little competition .
This fixed the English Class-system . Politicians like Churchill didn't help .
The Indian Gambit , with a vengeance .
Class mobility decreased , and so did the old Victorian innovation . So did economic innovation and growth .
Orders were blindly obeyed , instead of queried .
The result was the Somme .
Non-Darwinnian selection .
The losers do not die or vanish in a convenient puff of smoke .
They might not win the first prize , but that is true of 99.99% of any species by definition of "first-by-the-post".
They survive by co-operating .
It forces co-operation . The whole point .
The winners take 1/3 of the resources as reserves .
The co-operatives then split the remainder in a fractal series of competitions and co-operations .
The co-operatives compete inside their group and co-operate against any outside interference .
Sound familiar ? This is a civil service . Or a Family .
If you sum the portion of resources taken (ie not open to competition by others ) it looks like this :
After 0 administration : 33% (the winners at the start)
After 1 administration : 56%
After 2 administrations : 70%
After 3 administrations : 80%
And it rapidly increases after that in geometrical proportion .
Can you see the problem ?
After two administrations , less than a third of the system's wealth is left over . This is a critical limit for reserves for the remainder of the population . The society starts destabilizing as all the remaining classes realize that their grand-children will not have sufficient reserves to live .
The US solved the problem in a hit-or-miss fashion by changing the whole civil service every two administrations . A nearly optimal solution . No wonder they are numero uno .
And here I thought that a civil service lends stability . It does , but only for two administrations . After that , it starts to destabilize the whole system . Now that we know what to look for , the effects can clearly be seen in the Roman Empire , British Empire , Ottoman Empire , etc .
The solution ?
A Sovereign solution is tax . Tax the future . Inheritance taxes saved Britain by forcing the indolent capitalists to get off their lazy butts and do something .
Ridiculous as it might seem , taxing inflation would do something similar . Think it through . (This is a Beth(1) argument .)
So what is a person to do today ?
Compete when young .
If not a winner , then co-operate completely .
(The old paradigm called for competition within the co-operation groups , but there are greater rewards in a small slice of a big pie than in big slice of a small pie. See Wallmart) .
If you see a good-looking bird , don't twitch . Twitter .
Andre
Andre Willers
22 Apr 2009
Synopsis:
Why are the dominant civilizations at the present moment "First past the Post" competitions ?
Answer : to encourage co-operation .
Non-Darwinnian selection is more important than Darwinnian selection .
( Non-Darwinnian selection is for co-operation .
Darwinnian selection is for competition .)
Discussion :
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Why genes?" for a discussion at a very low level .
Sociological systems are more distinct in certain ways and more complex
Do I compete , co-operate or drag my feet ?
This is a question every individual sophont in every society across the universe asks himself every day .
Competition .
Competition carries the risk of failure . Failure is an error , with penalties.
Can you survive the draw-down resulting from the error ?
This brings the powerful arguments of Reserves to bear .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "New tools : Infinite Probes : reserves"
In this context , reserves can be interpreted as Co-operation .
So does dragging your feet .
Co-operatives like organizations and families enables individuals to compete 62% - 72% of the time , and survive the experience . Learning from it .
Losing a competition is not fatal .
This is the major advantage of societies and multicellular organizations .
Refining it:
The probability of succeeding in a competition is not spread evenly .
Eg The fastest runner will win most of the time . But , he will get older .
Seniority :
Most organizations promote by seniority . People who have learned to co-operate . An essential bedrock for any high-flyers .
Another way of putting it , is that a society that does not promote by seniority will not last long . One of the driving forces of the present economic crisis is the selfishness of the managers .
They are not being co-operative in the basic sense of the word .
1. Too much competition .
Historical examples :
Ancient Greeks.
Xenophon's " Anabasis" . It is difficult for a circa 2100 AD Western person to understand how a military system could function where any commander at any level could be voted out and replaced at any time .
Yet , function it did . And very effectively too .
They survived by simply robbing anybody nearby who was weaker .
This is an instance where Co-operation is far below the 28% level .
Vikings
"Bare is the back without a brother to guard it" says it all .
The Havamal should be required reading for any wanna-be savage .
Nazis
Another instance is the Fuehrer-prinzip of Nazi-Germany .
Every post was competed and fought over .
Competition was driven to levels below reserves .
This led to a huge explosion of innovation , as each individual drove his idea to the exclusion of everything else .
The ancient Greeks , Vikings and Nazi's were some of the most innovative eras . As each Fuehrer drove his idea forward .
The price was social cohesiveness , by definition .
A Nazi , a Viking and an ancient Greek would have understood each other perfectly , while competing to death .
2. Too much co-operation and too little competition .
Reserves more than 38%
This is better known from "Rights of Kings" , aristocracy and class-systems . The death of the European nobility .
The death of the Nomenklatura .
An interesting aside :
The British India Civil Service .
Another "first-past-the-post" exam .
But what happened to the losers ? They stayed behind to rule Britain .
And ruined the British Empire in the process .
Talk about shooting yourself in the foot .
What happened ?
Each yearly echelon of graduates (at least thirty echelons between 1870 and 1900) tried the exams . About fifty per year were chosen .
The remaining thousands had to learn to co-operate in the Civil Service . But all still very smart cookies ,
The civil service slowly gelled into an co-operative enterprise , with little competition .
This fixed the English Class-system . Politicians like Churchill didn't help .
The Indian Gambit , with a vengeance .
Class mobility decreased , and so did the old Victorian innovation . So did economic innovation and growth .
Orders were blindly obeyed , instead of queried .
The result was the Somme .
Non-Darwinnian selection .
The losers do not die or vanish in a convenient puff of smoke .
They might not win the first prize , but that is true of 99.99% of any species by definition of "first-by-the-post".
They survive by co-operating .
It forces co-operation . The whole point .
The winners take 1/3 of the resources as reserves .
The co-operatives then split the remainder in a fractal series of competitions and co-operations .
The co-operatives compete inside their group and co-operate against any outside interference .
Sound familiar ? This is a civil service . Or a Family .
If you sum the portion of resources taken (ie not open to competition by others ) it looks like this :
After 0 administration : 33% (the winners at the start)
After 1 administration : 56%
After 2 administrations : 70%
After 3 administrations : 80%
And it rapidly increases after that in geometrical proportion .
Can you see the problem ?
After two administrations , less than a third of the system's wealth is left over . This is a critical limit for reserves for the remainder of the population . The society starts destabilizing as all the remaining classes realize that their grand-children will not have sufficient reserves to live .
The US solved the problem in a hit-or-miss fashion by changing the whole civil service every two administrations . A nearly optimal solution . No wonder they are numero uno .
And here I thought that a civil service lends stability . It does , but only for two administrations . After that , it starts to destabilize the whole system . Now that we know what to look for , the effects can clearly be seen in the Roman Empire , British Empire , Ottoman Empire , etc .
The solution ?
A Sovereign solution is tax . Tax the future . Inheritance taxes saved Britain by forcing the indolent capitalists to get off their lazy butts and do something .
Ridiculous as it might seem , taxing inflation would do something similar . Think it through . (This is a Beth(1) argument .)
So what is a person to do today ?
Compete when young .
If not a winner , then co-operate completely .
(The old paradigm called for competition within the co-operation groups , but there are greater rewards in a small slice of a big pie than in big slice of a small pie. See Wallmart) .
If you see a good-looking bird , don't twitch . Twitter .
Andre
Suggested reading list
Suggested Reading List .
Andre Willers
22 Apr 2009
Hi David ,
As promised .
Preliminary notes and cautions .
1.An understanding of the basic principles and axioms is essential , but the fields are all open-ended . One can easily get caught up in an attractor basin to the exclusion of all else .
2.Occam's Razor is only useful in Beth(0) systems .
(See "Iterative Systems and Aristotelian logic")
3.These are all Beth(n bigger than 0) systems . The Observer is part of the system .
Do not rush in where angels fear to tread , especially in the more experimental sections .
List .
Unless stated otherwise , use the Internet .
A useful site is www.arxiv.org . This is where most publishing gets done recently .
1.Meta-systems . How knowledge and theories are organized .
1.1 "The structure of scientific revolutions" by Kuhn .
1.2 Neural networks and how they work .
1.3 Sapolsky's works on learned helplessness and fairness
1.4 The algorithm to increase your understanding : Obtain "New Scientst" and "Scientific American" magazines .
Google on any terms you do not understand .
2.Mathematics
Numerous books and sources are available .
"Infinity and the mind" by Rudy Rucker gives a good overview of the basics , including Godel .
A basic understanding of fractals and attractors is essential . (Google it)
A basic understanding of probability is essential . (Google it)
A basic understanding of infinite series is essential . (Google it)
It is infinite .
3. Physics .
Since nobody has a basic understanding of physics , do not worry too much . The whole field is in a state of flux
(see Kuhn on the "Structure of Scientific revolutions") . We are close to a paradigm-shift .
Richard Feynman's lectures are very good if you want to understand the present paradigm .
Nano-technology:
"Engines of creation" by Eric K. Drexler is a must .
Based on Richard Feynman's work ("There is room at the bottom") .
The only known example of an entirely new technology created and the necessary safe-guards installed by the creator . The paradigms are widely followed in the bio-technology sphere .
Essential reading .
Post-humans : google it
4. Biology .
This is such a hot field that most of the new developments only appear in magazines or on the internet .
A basic understanding of evolution , genetics , epi-genetics , stochastic resonance , immune systems , etc is needed .
5. History .
Don't bother . Nobody learns anything from that bunch of professional liars . A bit like Elliot-waves of Fourier-waves . Only interesting in hindsight .
But if you have to , Niall Ferguson's histories from an economics viewpoint might appeal .
6. Bridging esoterica .
"Mind machines you can build" by G. Harry Stine is a collection of machines anybody can build and has repeatable effects on demand . But , Stine had deliberately chosen them because there is no possible explanation for these effects in the present paradigm (He was a professional scientist with NASA) .
There is a lot about these machines on the net . You can buy them . Be careful in using them . Just because some of what I wrote seems to explain some of their workings does not make you an expert .
Bio-feedback machines .The net is full of them .
7. Esoterica .
"Journeys out of the body" et al by Monroe
www.monroeinstitute.com
Once again , they sell machines that can repeatably induce astral traveling on demand . I have not tried them (too scared) , but from what I know now of the structure of the universes , it is possible .
It is what I do not know that scares me .
8.Theology and Philosophy .
Ever see a puppy chasing its tail ?
This should keep you busy for a while .
Andre
Andre Willers
22 Apr 2009
Hi David ,
As promised .
Preliminary notes and cautions .
1.An understanding of the basic principles and axioms is essential , but the fields are all open-ended . One can easily get caught up in an attractor basin to the exclusion of all else .
2.Occam's Razor is only useful in Beth(0) systems .
(See "Iterative Systems and Aristotelian logic")
3.These are all Beth(n bigger than 0) systems . The Observer is part of the system .
Do not rush in where angels fear to tread , especially in the more experimental sections .
List .
Unless stated otherwise , use the Internet .
A useful site is www.arxiv.org . This is where most publishing gets done recently .
1.Meta-systems . How knowledge and theories are organized .
1.1 "The structure of scientific revolutions" by Kuhn .
1.2 Neural networks and how they work .
1.3 Sapolsky's works on learned helplessness and fairness
1.4 The algorithm to increase your understanding : Obtain "New Scientst" and "Scientific American" magazines .
Google on any terms you do not understand .
2.Mathematics
Numerous books and sources are available .
"Infinity and the mind" by Rudy Rucker gives a good overview of the basics , including Godel .
A basic understanding of fractals and attractors is essential . (Google it)
A basic understanding of probability is essential . (Google it)
A basic understanding of infinite series is essential . (Google it)
It is infinite .
3. Physics .
Since nobody has a basic understanding of physics , do not worry too much . The whole field is in a state of flux
(see Kuhn on the "Structure of Scientific revolutions") . We are close to a paradigm-shift .
Richard Feynman's lectures are very good if you want to understand the present paradigm .
Nano-technology:
"Engines of creation" by Eric K. Drexler is a must .
Based on Richard Feynman's work ("There is room at the bottom") .
The only known example of an entirely new technology created and the necessary safe-guards installed by the creator . The paradigms are widely followed in the bio-technology sphere .
Essential reading .
Post-humans : google it
4. Biology .
This is such a hot field that most of the new developments only appear in magazines or on the internet .
A basic understanding of evolution , genetics , epi-genetics , stochastic resonance , immune systems , etc is needed .
5. History .
Don't bother . Nobody learns anything from that bunch of professional liars . A bit like Elliot-waves of Fourier-waves . Only interesting in hindsight .
But if you have to , Niall Ferguson's histories from an economics viewpoint might appeal .
6. Bridging esoterica .
"Mind machines you can build" by G. Harry Stine is a collection of machines anybody can build and has repeatable effects on demand . But , Stine had deliberately chosen them because there is no possible explanation for these effects in the present paradigm (He was a professional scientist with NASA) .
There is a lot about these machines on the net . You can buy them . Be careful in using them . Just because some of what I wrote seems to explain some of their workings does not make you an expert .
Bio-feedback machines .The net is full of them .
7. Esoterica .
"Journeys out of the body" et al by Monroe
www.monroeinstitute.com
Once again , they sell machines that can repeatably induce astral traveling on demand . I have not tried them (too scared) , but from what I know now of the structure of the universes , it is possible .
It is what I do not know that scares me .
8.Theology and Philosophy .
Ever see a puppy chasing its tail ?
This should keep you busy for a while .
Andre
Saturday, April 04, 2009
Financial Crisis 4 April 2009
Financial Crisis 4April 2009
Andre Willers
4 Apr 2009
"A trillion here , a trillion there . Pretty soon we'll be talking real money ."
Or any money at all .
Post-Monetarism .
Money's only purpose is to serve as a one-to-one counter for real wealth .
Real wealth is measured according to the criteria set out in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Financial Crisis 31 Jan 2009"
Mainly
It is to satisfy the human needs , weighted according to the Maslow hierarchy .
1.Air to breathe
2.Water to drink
3.Food to eat
4.Clothes
5.Shelter
6.Weapons
7.Novelty
Deflation .
This happens when real wealth increases faster than the growth of the monetary system .
This has been of real concern just before the present crisis .
In fact , it is the present crisis .
The system hunts for stability by creating money in futures .
It creates money by discounting future earnings .
The Central Banks are not creating money fast enough to keep up with the accounting demand .
Literally billions of people are hauling themselves up by the their bootstraps . Creating enormous wealth . The number of dollars , euros , yuan , etc in circulation is not sufficient to reflect the wealth . But the governments concerned try to limit the creation of new money , under outdated theories .
The system promptly bubbles up in futures , which are inherently more unstable than a currency .
Historical examples :
There are many . I will mention two :
1.British Empire circa 1880
A gold based trading empire in an industrial revolution created wealth faster than the discovery of new gold , until the South African goldfields . This created an explosion of wealth .
2.The 1929 crash .
Post-WWI created new wealth , but the monetary system did not keep pace . A bubble in futures (stock exchange) followed . In the ensuing collapse , wealth-creation was decreased . War , in other words .
But the system enforced balance .
And for now ?
The fear is that inflation might follow the creation of trillions of dollars .
The real problem is that they are too modest .
The point is that the excesses of futures transactions reflect a real shortage of money .
The system needs and will need a continuous creation of money just to keep up with the demand in real-wealth creation .
Look at the scale . The world economy is about 100 trillion a year . Wealth creation is about 10% per year . This can be summed , even for the last 10 years this gives a demand for money of about 100 trillion dollars . The money creation systems cannot keep up .
Can you see why we are talking about post-monetarism ?
Any conceivable command-and-control mechanism cannot hold .
It will , and has , fractured .
An example :
See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Negative pressure : an important update"
If this technology is patented through the Danish embassy in Second Life , future income streams are irrevocably fractured . Linden dollars will become one of the hardest currencies on the planet .
How does this affect you right now ?
If you have any exposure to hedge-funds or futures , get out now . Immediately .
As far as I can see , the funds have been given an extraordinarily wide leeway , but they still have been using short-selling to panic the sheep .
I estimate their exposure to be about 10 trillion on the positive side . This will be dumped into the Market as the new measures come into effect .
The day of the unbridled hedge-fund , like the cheap car , is over .
After that , roughly 20 trillion a year for 5 years will have to be created just to wipe out the back-log .
But in the meantime , wealth-creation will be proceeding at an exponential pace .
Money will become increasingly fractured and meaningless .
New ways of accounting will develop .
I draw your attention to Denise Schmandt-Besserat "How writing came about" (ISBN 13 978 0 292 77704 0 .
She shows conclusively that writing developed out of accounting practices over a period of 4 000 years .
Similarly , new accounting practices for fractured systems will need new descriptive terms .
And so it goes .
Andre
Andre Willers
4 Apr 2009
"A trillion here , a trillion there . Pretty soon we'll be talking real money ."
Or any money at all .
Post-Monetarism .
Money's only purpose is to serve as a one-to-one counter for real wealth .
Real wealth is measured according to the criteria set out in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Financial Crisis 31 Jan 2009"
Mainly
It is to satisfy the human needs , weighted according to the Maslow hierarchy .
1.Air to breathe
2.Water to drink
3.Food to eat
4.Clothes
5.Shelter
6.Weapons
7.Novelty
Deflation .
This happens when real wealth increases faster than the growth of the monetary system .
This has been of real concern just before the present crisis .
In fact , it is the present crisis .
The system hunts for stability by creating money in futures .
It creates money by discounting future earnings .
The Central Banks are not creating money fast enough to keep up with the accounting demand .
Literally billions of people are hauling themselves up by the their bootstraps . Creating enormous wealth . The number of dollars , euros , yuan , etc in circulation is not sufficient to reflect the wealth . But the governments concerned try to limit the creation of new money , under outdated theories .
The system promptly bubbles up in futures , which are inherently more unstable than a currency .
Historical examples :
There are many . I will mention two :
1.British Empire circa 1880
A gold based trading empire in an industrial revolution created wealth faster than the discovery of new gold , until the South African goldfields . This created an explosion of wealth .
2.The 1929 crash .
Post-WWI created new wealth , but the monetary system did not keep pace . A bubble in futures (stock exchange) followed . In the ensuing collapse , wealth-creation was decreased . War , in other words .
But the system enforced balance .
And for now ?
The fear is that inflation might follow the creation of trillions of dollars .
The real problem is that they are too modest .
The point is that the excesses of futures transactions reflect a real shortage of money .
The system needs and will need a continuous creation of money just to keep up with the demand in real-wealth creation .
Look at the scale . The world economy is about 100 trillion a year . Wealth creation is about 10% per year . This can be summed , even for the last 10 years this gives a demand for money of about 100 trillion dollars . The money creation systems cannot keep up .
Can you see why we are talking about post-monetarism ?
Any conceivable command-and-control mechanism cannot hold .
It will , and has , fractured .
An example :
See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Negative pressure : an important update"
If this technology is patented through the Danish embassy in Second Life , future income streams are irrevocably fractured . Linden dollars will become one of the hardest currencies on the planet .
How does this affect you right now ?
If you have any exposure to hedge-funds or futures , get out now . Immediately .
As far as I can see , the funds have been given an extraordinarily wide leeway , but they still have been using short-selling to panic the sheep .
I estimate their exposure to be about 10 trillion on the positive side . This will be dumped into the Market as the new measures come into effect .
The day of the unbridled hedge-fund , like the cheap car , is over .
After that , roughly 20 trillion a year for 5 years will have to be created just to wipe out the back-log .
But in the meantime , wealth-creation will be proceeding at an exponential pace .
Money will become increasingly fractured and meaningless .
New ways of accounting will develop .
I draw your attention to Denise Schmandt-Besserat "How writing came about" (ISBN 13 978 0 292 77704 0 .
She shows conclusively that writing developed out of accounting practices over a period of 4 000 years .
Similarly , new accounting practices for fractured systems will need new descriptive terms .
And so it goes .
Andre
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