Chaperones , Unpacking and Asthma

Chaperones , Unpacking and Asthma
Andre Willers
31 Aug 2008

Essential reading :
“New jobs for ancient chaperones” by P K Srivastava ,
Scientific American July 2008 p32

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Unpacking” , “Orders of Randomness” , “Orders of Randomness 2”

Discussion:
In “Unpacking” , no mechanism was proposed for the unpacking-packing .

No formal proof was given that Higher Orders of Randomness are more likely than lower ones . A quick intuitive proof is that a stab at a numberline will most likely give an irrational number . (There are more aleph(1) irrational numbers than aleph(0) rational ones)

Unpacking is biased along probability lines (ie along orders of randomness) .
This is the basis of quantum and string theory .

Strings of amino acids are initially folded at Beth(0) random .
Higher orders of randomness are strings that guide other strings . Chaperones . Agents, Lobbyists ,Teachers . The DNA coding for these molecules survive at a higher rate because they take a percentage . They partake in the process in a partial way . If they evolve further they become catalysts or hormones .

This does not violate Second Law of Thermodynamics because the complexity is open-ended .
You can always find a Beth(n+1) for any Beth(n) . (True , because A+(~A)
Heat Shock Proteins (HSP)
A well-known class of these molecules are Heat Shock Proteins (HSP) . Initially identified by their role in heat-stress , but now identified as key players in the folding of proteins and the immune system .

The amino-acid chains are delivered by the ribosome factories in tangled , random folded shapes . They are unfolded (unpacked) by the chaperones and nudged (packed) to desired shapes by other chaperones .

The ribosome factories can be likened to steel furnaces , using high-energy ATP to deliver plate steel that must be rolled and punched into shape by the artisans of the chaperones .

Life is thus a co-operative endeavour between a number of agents/teachers (See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Artificial Intelligence” The external database is DNA . The AI(0) is the Chaperone system .)

The ATP manufactory of the mitochondria is essential . Not just because of their energy , but because they use chemicals like oxygen and alcohol used as poisens by other cells . They soak up and use the pathogens .

(Nitrogen will be next . Engineer mitochondria to use N2->oxides of nitrogen . There is a release of energy used by bioprocesses . This is already done by microbes in some plant root-nodules . )

As can be expected , each HSP carries a history : it carries peptides identifying it’s origin . These peptides form the Major Histocompatibility Complex One (MHC I) . They are presented to the immune system via the antigen presenting cells to the T-cells . Can you see how it all fits together ?

Thus , HSP’s are used by the body for zapping haywire self-systems like cancers .

“Every unhappy family is unhappy in it’s own unique way.” Tolstoy

Every body has a narrow sheaf of probabilities of functioning in a happy way , but a number of unhappy ways dependant on it’s Randomness . Can you see the co-ordination between Beth(n) and reality ?

By manipulating Beth , realities are constrained by boundaries of an order of Beth higher .

In any case , immune system activation using HSP therapies are new , but workable therapies . Each body has to be treated as unique . There is no general , specific therapy except a few .

General , non-specific therapy .
Heat is a Beth(0) randomness :
It is , after all , called Heat Shock Proteins . But why heat ?

It is the fluctuation of heat between certain boundaries that matter .
The single most important driver in the evolutionary process is the temperature fluctuation . Note the PCR reaction .

ATP can be seen as a Beth(1) phenomenon .
Zero-point energy can be seen as Beth(2).
Both would have chaperone molecules associated with them .
Mitochondria can accommodate this ,since the synthesis of ATP only involves energy plus recyclable materials . The energy normally comes from glucose+oxygen , but the cell could handle N2->N20 , or zero-point energy .

It would be amusing to see if new Olympic records obey conservation of measurable energy .

Cold-fusion anybody ?
From this viewpoint , Michael Phelps is a cold-fusion machine . And unlocking greater potential is inside everybody .

Asthma.
As everybody think they know , this is over-activation of an immune response . But it is actually just a normal immune response that is not shut off . And the shut-off mechanism is a learned response that is temperature-fluctuation sensitive .

HSP molecules present antigens to the AntigenPresentingCell , which in turn presents it to the T-Cell , simultaneously signaling a inflammatory reaction . HSP ‘s are the middle men , intermediaries ,agents , lobbyists , chaperones .

It is the beat of the heat .

If the heat does not change , there is no beat .

There is nobody to tell the immune system to cool it .

The Major Culprit :
The Asthma Pump .
Not the chemicals .
The temperature .
It is a gas under pressure which is very cold when injected into the mouth-lung system, because of the venturi principle .

It is this cold temperature that does the long-lasting damage .
Heat Shock Proteins are not formed and the system cannot learn that it is wrong , since not enough “wrong” antigens are presented , because not enough HSP’s are formed .

The system then has to unlearn the wrong habits , then learn new ones .
Ho-hum .
Most humans prefer to die , depending on their level of boredom .

Smoking.
Inhaling from a cigarette has temperature differentials from 500 Fahrenheit to 90 in the mouth and lung cavities . This triggers Heat Shock Protein Formation .

The positive effects of smoking goes a long way to explain why this habit has survived so long . It has very little to do with nicotine .

Just Hot Air

Dispense with the chemicals . Just have temperature differentials .

Asthma sufferers should have significant relief be retraining their immune system by having a heater at the throat of their pump .

It is not the dirt , it is the temperature .

Andre

Is the Atkins diet evolutionary compatible?

Is the Atkins diet evolutionary compatible?
Andre Willers
26 Aug 2008

Synopsis:

Yes .

The major sticking point of the Atkins regimen has been his statement that humans had a long evolutionary history of being primarily meat-eaters . Most people felt that , since we evolved from fruit-eating apes , this needed more proof than an assertion and mountains of evidence . We needed A Theory .

We try to follow the chronological sequence .

We find that there was indeed a very long period when it was easier to get all the food necessary by hunting or scavenging .

We try to put some numbers to the discussion .

Some understanding of Epigenetics is essential .

Discussion:
1. The Proto-human ape .
The bonobo’s are descendents of this eden . Fruit come into season all year round
The living is easy .

1.1Fear of heights .

This is situated on a single gene (refer to Mohawk tribe , who does not have it) . It is most likely a genetic switch (ie you can develop a fear of heights after a certain age , thus more likely transmitted through epigenetic factors)

Apes with this disability started to populate the ground . Paradoxically , the more successful ones also had a complementary genetical deformity : the inability to manufacture certain amino acids they could obtain only from meat . These would have died before , but now could survive and increase by turning into obligate hunters(ie they had to eat meat about once a month) .
A chicken-and-egg feedback process .
We can assign exact values to this process using Order of Randomness maths .

1.2. Hand-size
An optimal hand-mouth-digestive system evolved . You can’t eat more than a hand-size ,since your mouth is not big enough . A bigger size activates disgust , based on ape fairness protocols , which are very deeply hardwired . It is even species independent . Greedy , sloppy eaters like sharks excites revulsion . This revulsion is hardwired .

Default-humans (ie females) still have the small hands . Males evolved big hands during the breeding episode circa 10 000 BC . It still turns females off . In true Freudean fashion many have become hysterical in a anorexic or bulimic mode .
They perceive their hands as being too big .(Transference)

An interesting treatment would be to make their hands smaller : a-la-chinese feet . Tape the middle three fingers to the palm , give them a spoon or chopsticks and let them get on with it . A significant percentage would benefit .

Note that some men have enormous hands (ie Michael Phelps) , but their mouths are normal size . Their mothers or grandmothers had very high levels of testosterone in the womb . If this is an advantage , it slowly gets incorporated into the genome .


2.1 Hunter Gatherers .

As can be imagined , hard data is uncertain . The events occurred tens of thousands of years ago and all that is left are bones , teeth , some artifacts and cultural artifacts.

The jargon is Harris-lines (bone lines formed after a stress event) and apoplasia(dental lines formed during the stress event) .

Epigenetic events (not recognised when my major source was written ) : decrease in skeletal heights since the hunter-gatherer stage .

Remember that the language is the interface and the external database
(See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “AI” )

The major hard-science evidence is from bone and dental growth lines , which is open to different interpretations .

But the general consensus is that hunter-gatherers were , and surprisingly , still are better nourished than the general populace today . Even present day hunter-gatherers are better nourished than the average agricultural populations .

My data is from “Hunger in history” , a study by Brown University
This prehistoric data is from chapter 3 “ Prehistoric patterns of hunger” by M.N Cohen .
The data is surprisingly hard to come by from using the internet . The data is usually only available to accredited persons . I presume that it is not PC to admit that people today are worse off than 50 000 years ago . A corollary of “The greatest good for the greatest number” .

Let us get some numbers on the subject:

Paleolithic food
Source of hard data:"Hunger in History" ISBN 1 55786 044 0 Brown University USA
Chapter 3 : "Prehistoric patterns of hunger" by MN Cohen
Calory and carbohydrate values from standard commercial counters .

Benchmarks for one standard human
kCal needs per day= 2000
Std 30g handful g= 30 Small human or ape handful
kCal per 30g beef= 86
kCal per 30g veg= 30 Onion as benchmark
NetCarbs per 30g veg= 5.5 Onion

Table to get needed kCal per day Nbr of handfuls(30g)
g meat g veg G nettcarb Meat veg
698 0 0 23 0
660 108 20 22 4
232 1334 245 8 44
116 1667 306 4 56
58 1834 336 2 61
30 1914 351 1 64
0 2000 367 0 67


Note that the ape has to work about three times as hard on a veg diet to get the same calories . (ie the number of handfuls)

We know that the largest functional group of homonins is about 150 (Microsoft et al)
We know from “Infinite Probes” in previous discussions that critical points are at a third and two thirds of this (ie 50-100).

How much meat does a reasonably successful homonin group of 100 require ?

For 700 g a day per person this translates to 70 kg per day for a group of a hundred . This is easily achievable . One big buck dresses out as 300-400 kg . Plus innumerable hares , birds , fowl etc . The country was teeming with wildlife until the 1800’s .

Transport .
The big governor of the Hunter-Gatherer way of life .
Everything had to be carried .
They could not exactly load it on daddy’s hovercraft , you know .

The food had to be cooked . While meat could be roasted or smoked on the spot , vegetables had to be cooked or prepared at some central point , as all natural edible plants had evolved poison defenses of some kind (eg cassava , potatoes , yams ,etc) .

Look at the extreme vegetarian case from the table above . Two kg per person for 100 people works out at 200 kg per day . About twenty women are supposed to cart this at ever increasing distances every day , plus collecting and carting firewood .

The male-only hunting model:
The men have to hunt , as all need the amino acids from meat .
This model leads to a revolt from the women . Remember , the living is easy . The women don’t see any reason to bust a gut doing unneccesary carting . They also gather the herbs and veggies , most of which are poisonous .
You can see the result : moving along is much easier and healthier for all concerned .

The result : everybody hunts . Women use nets and snares and men go for bigger game . Juveniles collect eggs and vegetables , but in small quantities .

The easier route is eating a lot of meat .

But there is a problem with fats .

The one thing that was scarce was fat . This was the governor on human reproduction.
Wildlife under predation change their behaviour . They run hither and thither , burning up energy instead of turning it into reserves that can be used by predators .

Women need reserves of fat , especially emega3 and omega6 for normal conception and prevention of spontaneous abortions .
Children were literally timed to coincide with maximal fat of the mothers .

Hence the evolution of big ,fatty bums in a lot of female human populations . See Hottentot , !San , Babushkas . Tellingly , these are seen as sexually attractive to men in Northern Europe and Africa . (Rubens) A promise of fertility .

Proto-Pottery :
Carrying was first done in baskets . Weaving . Very early , concomitant with unpicking and ropes . Watertight weaving (still used) .
Cooking was first done by dropping hot stones in watertight woven baskets with some sand at the bottom to prevent burn-through . It was noticed that some types of clay baked hard and gave a longer-lasting basket . These clays were smeared over the inside of the baskets . Proto-pottery was birthed . Because of its brittle and perishable nature , no recognizable traces lasted . But it formed the bridging to pottery which did last , seeming to come into existence from nothing .

Food Preservation .
The major problem for any hunter-gatherer with a uncertain food-supply .
Meats preserve easily and well .
Jerky (biltong) , salted meat , smoked meat .

Alcohol and vinegar as a preservative :
Fermentation followed directly from proto-pottery (about a week) . Alcohol and vinegar then was used extensively in pickled veggies and meats . Real pottery exploded as there was huge market for preservatives .
Market for vinegar .
Market for beer .

Transport needed:
Domestication of heavy carriers (oxen) . Done before , but now large numbers needed in nuclei points . To feed the oxen and fuel the fermentation pots , large sources of high-carb seeds were needed . Small-scale agriculture expanded .

Then agriculture happened .
Humans did not at first eat grains on large scale .
They fed it to their animals during the process of domestication .

But , it was the Cow that did it , your honor .
Also , the horse , the goats and the sheep .

Fat was supplied by milk-fermentation products . The single greatest spur to human population growth .
Milk + fermentation + containers bypassed the mammalian lactose intolerance .
Cheese , kumiss ,yoghurt , etc.

Cheese ,mainly .

Hard Cheeses to be exact .
This was one of the main trading items during the Bronze Age .
An item under strict import control in states like Pharaonic Egypt and Cretan Minos . They were well aware of the effect of cheese on the birthrate .They had been keeping detailed records for thousands of years .
Since they were in small , eco-sensitive states , cheese was reserved for the elite . The development of local hard cheeses were discouraged . Indeed , Africa never developed an indigenous hard-cheese suitable for trading . It is one of the major reasons why it never had explosive population growths resulting in empires .

The Elba-Etruscan-Marseille-Gaul trade .
Before Alexander the Great channeled Greek expansion to the East , they had founded colonies in Sicily , Italy , Southern France and Spain . Elba had rich Greek iron mines.
Worked tools and weapons were traded for wine from Etruria and shipped via Marseille up the Rhone to the interior of Europe . (This was what stimulated the Etruscan and Roman civilizations) .

But what did they get in return ?
This has always been a puzzle .

Celtic Gaul circa 1000 BCE was a post-collapse society , an exhausted Bronze age civilization overrun by Celtic barbarians . But they did know their cows and their cheeses .

What they had in return was cheese , furs and charcoal .
But mainly cheese .

But not cheese as we know it , Jim .

Hard , rock , like Parmesan . Formed in ox-hide shapes as a brand . Far more valuable than metals . (Post-collapse societies have lots of metals lying around , but things to eat are scarce .) (That is why there are so many ox-hide shapes in old ship-wrecks from this era : not metals , but cheese , eaten by the sea-life .)

The Greek trading drove them to alter the manufacturing process to softer cheeses in containers . The Greeks and Romans only knew how to make cheap round pottery containers . So we are still stuck with cheese wheels .(Remember , the home of Cheese , Holland , never had a collapse op the Western Roman Empire . )


Think India had sacred cows ? Try Europe . The cow was more important than children , because the whole family could die in winter without it .And future generations depended on the fat of the human mothers(known , but not in a scientific way).

You don’t have “Kobe beef” in Europe not because the pampered beef , but because they would skin anybody who made such a suggestion . Eating dogs or horses had an easier reception .

Do not confuse the Celtic , Bantu or Texas cattle-cultures with West-European Swiss or Hindu cow-cultures .

Celtic and Bantu cultures .
These are so similar that we have to wonder if there is not cultural contamination .
Both used the same huts , cattle as wealth , clan structure , border raiding , metallurgy etc, etc .

Bantu culture suddenly erupted from the West coast of Africa south of the Congo-delta circa 50 BC and spread south-eastwards because of the cattle . No other societies around them had the same cattle-based economy or iron metallurgy . The iron-working (a variant of bog-iron folding) spread into Angola and Southern Africa . The same with the cattle .

Where did this come from ?

An intriguing speculation is that it came from the Celts .

The Celts had this mechanism of getting rid of surplus population : split the populace at random in three . One third has to leave . By about 70-60 BCE , the Romans had made it clear (after Marius massacred 500 000 at Aquiliae Sextae) that no further volkewanderung in Gaul or Italy would be tolerated .

So they tried the sea-route down the west coast of Africa . About 200 coast-hugging ships of the time could take about 100 000 people . Another 100 ships for the cattle and horses . A population of about 500 000 would be rich enough and powerful enough to get the lowlanders to build the ships . The Druids probably could see problems ahead either with the Romans . So they would also give their support , and more importantly , money .

This is why Julius Caesar invaded Britain . He knew that a powerful Gaul fleet had sailed not long ago , and he had to know where they were . There was no way that he could tell the Senate

“By the way , a fleet of 100 000 Gauls can descend anytime on Rome , Egypt or Carthage . “

He knew that they had not been recently sighted in the Mediterranean . His most immediate danger would be that they had gone to Britain and would sally forth at their leisure . So he took the initiative : a reconnaissance in force .
When he found out the truth , he withdrew .

But he sent pursuit forces to make sure they did not return .
Talk about the last legion .
But he probably sent no more than two maniples . About 1200 men . Enough for the job .
These were real Romans with orders to make sure that the Gauls never return .
The highest probability is that they caught up with the weather-beaten fleet and burned most of it on the beach .

His policy decision then to eradicate Druidism because of their demonstrated capability to mobilize a fleet of about 300 ships coloured Roman and Roman-Catholic policy since .

Prestor John Empire myths
The Prestor John Empire myths stem from this episode . The ambivalence of the Roman-Catholic Church is understandable . They knew very well there might be a Western culture in Africa , but that it probably would have Druidic roots .

So what did happen to the Gauls ?
They hopped down the western coast of Africa in true Peoples of the Sea fashion . The first place suitable for cattle is south of the Congo .
This is probably where the Romans caught up with them , catching them by surprise and burning the ships on the shore .

After they lost the horses and the ships , they made the best of a bad business and acculturated , slowly drifting south-eastward . The Druids formed the core of the traditional healers , and still has the old verbal knowledge .

What happened to the horses ?
They are notoriously susceptible to diseases , especially African Horse sickness .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Mongols of the Serengeti”
Horses could survive , but only with a large initial influx or continual replenishment .
Without replenishment of new blood they would have died out . This implies that the Gaulish force lost sea-going capability , which is consonant with pursuing Romans catching up with them .

What happened to the Romans ?
They probably walked back . Well , most of them . They could sail as far as the Niger and then up to Lake Chad . Then march back to Egypt (It was wetter then). Take them about two years . There was little in Africa that could stop two Roman maniples .
The Primus Pilum probably retired on the shore of the Red Sea , telling unbelievable stories to his grandchildren on their visits .





More Cheese

Agricultural production quadrupled after Jethro Tull invented the seed-planter in 1700.

But exactly how did this translate into greater wealth ? More agricultural produce did not immediately lead to more people . The lag is too great and the produce could not be stored directly . But it could be stored indirectly via living organisms , ie cows , the major consumer of Western European produce . There was an explosion of cow numbers . Cream and cheese went from expensive delicacies to affordable items . The birthrate responded . The Great English Speaking Population explosion happened . Growth rates of about 13% per year was recorded .

A corollary can be seen in the production of nitrates for gunpowder . Europe was self-sufficient . England had to import nitrates from Bengal , laying the groundwork for successive famines in the area (nitrates were produced from cattle and horse urine , which depended on their feedstock)

Lots of people , lots of food and lots of munitions .So the humans had a war-fest called the Napoleonic wars .

Their response to the age of reason .

Bah .

Andre

Tennis – a Supersport

Tennis – a Supersport
Andre Willers
21 Aug 2008

Synopsis:
The sweat rate of a sport is taken as proportional to the heat-generation of muscles . Tennis is found to generate about three times as much work as the closest runners-up like tri-athletes , marathoners , sprinters ,etc . (See table below)
We try to show why .

The Sweaty table
Sweating p68 Pop Mechanics Aug 2008
Quarts/hr PercDiff Increase
Tennis 5.92 270%
TriAthlete 1.60 6%
Marathon 1.51 2%
Sprinter 1.48 1%
RaceWalker 1.47 16%
ShotPut 1.27 7%
200M sprint 1.19 3%
Baseball 1.16 35%
LightBoxer 0.86

Why the sudden jump at the tennis level ?

Uncertainty and Mirror Neurons
See “Mirroring People” by M. Iacoboni (ISBN 13 978 0 374 21017 5)
See Mirror Neuronal networks as discussed in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com

Briefly , mirror neurons project future actions . The system is activated by visual and verbal actions (the accent is on actions) . The physical sites of the most active mirror sites have been identified by fMRI as the Broca’s area and visual centers.
The critical thing to realize is that neurons in the brain that accompany actual muscle movements fire the same as for real movements . The impulses to activate the muscles are interrupted , presumably by an adaptation of the mechanism that prevents dreams being translated into movements .

This mechanism has been proven to discriminate between neuron-firings from various levels of mirror networks of “what-if” and an actual real-life signal coming through .

Tennis has a very high level of uncertainty . The ball can come at any speed from any direction and it is not a team sport (team sports dilutes the uncertainty)

The easiest way to explain is by way of analogy :
When you throw a ball to your dog to “fetch” , notice his quivering . This has hardly anything to do with fight-or-flight .

The dog does not know where the ball is going , so it prepares for any trajectory .
His system is flooded with ATP , continual nerve signals are sent to antagonistic muscles to increase tension between intra-cellular molecular groups .

This shows as shivering or trembling on the macro-scale .
Every muscle is mobilized , not only the probable ones .

Normally , the mirror-neurons would have fired on the most probable actions and there would be no shivering .

When the “go” nerve signal arrives , there is an immediate intra-muscular cascade . The muscle contracts in a spasm .

Shivering is of course the main mechanism for generating heat if the organism is cold.

The same mechanism is used if the organism’s mirror neurons cannot come to a decisive vote on a course of action . Signals leak through and shivering results . Extreme stress symptoms are shown . Tears and explosive violence are not unknown .

This is usually described as a psychotic break or a paradigm shift , depending on your standing in the old dispensation .

Since there is such a close correlation between shivering from cold and shivering from multiple probabilities , we wonder if we cannot induce the one from the other .

We know that rearranging features in a smile can change a mood . There is a whole school of psychology based on it (operant conditioning) .

A tennis player would do well to train in shivering a cold environment .

Conversely , certain types of psychosis should respond well to “Freeze Therapy” .
Freeze them till shivering sets in . Show action examples and words of the desired roles . Hopefully , the patient’s mirror networks will change .Note that this does not require conscious collaboration on the part of the patient . By sculpting the environment , any desired vote of the mirror-neurons can be engineered , especially in a shivering cold .

Can you see why shivering in an uncertain athletic circumstance causes a lot of
sweat ?
The body is preparing to go in any direction . Most sports involve a repertoire of limited actions . The body , after a lot of training , can perform these if it can get over it’s various sulks . But , faced with uncertainty like an incoming tennisball it reverts to the shivering model . Hence the heat generation and the sweating .

People with schizophrenic tendencies should not play tennis unless under medical supervision at temperatures above shivering .

Tennis players , their children and grand-children should beware of kidney stones because of epigenetic factors .

You can find shivering temperatures at any large bottle-store with walk-in refrigerators .

Andre

Orders of Randomness 2

Orders of Randomness 2
Andre Willers
15 Aug 2008

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : “Orders of Randomness”

I have been requested to expand a little on orders of Randomness and what it means .
Please note that human endeavours at this date use only randomness of the order of flipping a coin ( Beth(0) )

Aleph is the first letter of the Hebrew Alphabet . It was used by Cantor to denote
Classes of Infinity (ie Aleph(0) for Rational numbers , Aleph(1) for Irrational Numbers , etc

Beth is the second letter of the Hebrew Alfabet . It means “House”

I will first repeat the derivation of Orders of Randomness from http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : “Orders of Randomness” because it is so important .

----------------xxxxxx
Start Quote:
First , simple Randomness .
Flip of a coin .
Heads or Tails . 0 or 1
Flip an unbiased coin an infinite number of times ,write it down below each other and do it again .
All possible 0 and 1’s

An example : Beth(0)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Flips(1) 0,1,1,1,1,… etc
Flips(2) 0,1,1,1,0,… etc
.
Flips(infinity) 0,0,0,0,0,0,…etc
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This describes all possible states in a delineated binary universe .
“delineated binary” means a two sided coin which cannot land on it’s side .

Now draw a diagonal line from the top left of Flips(1) to Flips(infinity) .
At every intersection of this diagonal line with a horizontal line , change the value .
The Diagonal Line of (0,1)’s is then not in the collection of all possible random
Horizontal coin-Flips(x) .

This means the Diagonal Line is of a stronger order of randomness .
This is also the standard proof of an Irrational Number .

This is the standard proof of aleph numbers .
Irrational numbers ,etc
Since any number can be written in binary (0,1) , we can infer that the order of randomness is the same as aleph numbers .

This means we can use number theory in Randomness systems .
Very important .

Google Cantor (or Kantor)

Define coin-flip Randomness as Beth(0) , analogous to Aleph(0)
Then we have at least Beth(1) , randomness an order stronger than flipping a coin .
Then we can theorize Beth(Omega) <->Aleph(Omega) .

End Quote
----------------xxxxxx

Cardinal Numbers .

The cardinal number is the index x of Aleph(x) .
Cantor proved that
Aleph(n+1) = 2 ^ Aleph( n )

Where n is the cardinal number of the infinity .

Tying them together :
He also proved that
P(A) = 2^ n
Where A is any set , P(A) is the PowerSet of A and n is the cardinal number of set A
Thus , Cardinal Number of P(A) =(n+1)

The PowerSet of A = the Set of all subsets of A .
This sounds fancy , but it is simply all the different ways you can combine the elements of set A . All the ways you can chop up A .
You can see it easily in a finite binomial expansion (1+1)^n = P(A) = 2^n

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : “Infinite Probes”
There we also chop and dice , using infinite series .

Can you see how it all ties together ?

Why 2 ?

This derives from the Delineation Axiom . Remember , we can only talk about something if it is distinct and identifiable from something else . This gives a minimum of 2 states : part or non-part .

That is why the Zeta-function below is described on a 2-dimensional plane , or pesky problems like Primes always boil down to 2 dimensions of some sort .

This is why the irrational numbers play such an important part in physics .
Z=a+ib describes a 2-dimensional plane useful for delineated systems without feedback systems

Its in the axiom of Delineation , dummy .

But we know that Russell proved that A+~A smaller than Universum .
The difference can be described as the Beth sequences . Since they are derivatives of summation-sequences(see below) , they define arrows usually seen as the time-arrows .

These need not to be described a-la-dunne’s serial time , as different Beth levels address the problem adequately without multiplying hypotheses .



Self-referencing systems and Beth sequences .

A Proper Self-referencing system is of one cardinal Beth number higher than the system it derives from .
Self-referencing systems (feedback systems) can always be described as sequences of Beth systems . Ie as Beth(x) <-> Beth(y) . The formal proof is a bit long for inclusion here .

The easiest way to see it is in Bayesian systems . If Beth(x) systems are included , Bayesian systems become orders of magnitude more effective .

Life , civilization and markets are such . See below .

Conservation Laws :
By definition , these can always be written in a form of
SomeExpression = 0

Random (Beth(0) Walk in Euclidean 2-dimensions

This is a powerful unifying principle derived from the Delineation Axiom .

In Random Walk the Distance from the Center is = d * (n)^0.5 . This is a property of Euclidean systems .
(Where d = step , n=number of random beth(0) steps)

Immediately we can say that the only hope of the Walker returning to the center after an infinity of Beth(0) steps is if d ~ 1/(n)^0.5 . This is the Riemann Hypothesis .

Now , see a Universum of 2-dimensional descriptors z=a+ib

Sum all of them . Add together all the possible things that can be thus described .

This can be done as follows :
From z=a+ib Raise both sides to the e
e^(z) = e^(a) . e^i(b)
Raise both sides to the ln(j) power where j is real integers.
j^(z) = j^(a) . e^(b/ln(j))

Now , sum them :
Zeta=Sum of j^(z) for j=1 to infinity

Now we extract all possible statements that embody some Conservation Law . Beth(1)

This means that Zeta is zero for the set of extracted statements if and only if (b/ln(j)) is of the order of Beth(0) and a=(-1/2)

Tensors .
The above is a definition of a tensor for a discontinous function .

Riemann’s Zeta function.
This can describe any delineated system .
If Zeta = 0 , conservation laws apply .

Zeta = Sigma(1/j )^z for j=1,2,3,…,infinity and z=a+ib , where z is complex and i =(-1)^0.5
The z bit is in two dimensions as discussed above .

This function has a deep underlying meaning for infinite systems .
If you unpack the Right-Hand side on a x-yi plane you get a graph that looks like a random walk .

If every point is visited that a random walk would visit over infinity (ie all) , without clumping , then Zeta can only be non-trivially zero if a=(-1/2) .

Why (x – yi) plane ? See “Why 2 “ above . The system is fractal . Two dimensions are necessary in any delineated system .

Remember , randomwalk distance from origin = step*sqrt(number of steps) .
So if the steps = 1/ ( sqrt(number of steps) ) , then the Origin might be reached if and only if a= -1/2
This is easily proven .

If a= - 1/2 , then b can be any real function . This would include Beth(0) and Beth(1) , but not higher orders of beth .

If a= -1/2 and b is an unreal number , then a cannot be equal to -1/2 anymore . Conservation cannot hold at any level .

Consequences:
Conservation Laws can only hold for Beth(0) and Beth(1) systems .

This is forced by the two dimensions of delineation .

Mathematically , this means that Beth(2+) systems of feedbacks can only be described in terms of attractors or/and fractal systems (ie not in isolation)

Physically , conservation of energy and momentum need not hold for Beth(2+) systems .

This has an interesting corollary in decryption (unpacking) . A Beth(2) mind unpacking Beth(0) or Beth(1) encryption is functionally equivalent to Non-Conservation of Energy .



Some other consequences :
If a< -½ , then Riemannian Orbitals are described . Beth(any)
Also described as nuclei , atoms .

If a> -½ , then a diffuse cloud is described . Beth(any)
Also described as magnetic effects .

What does this mean?
Present technology uses Beth(x) technology in a rather haphazard way .(Quantum physics) .

A better understanding will bring about a sudden change in capability .

Andre

AI

Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Andre Willers
23 July 2008

Synopsis:
We trace the development of Artificial Intelligence .

We find that the requirements for AI is
A Basic Intelligence (see AI(0) below .)
An external Database
An Interface
An Unpacking system
A Packing system
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “ Unpacking” and “Orders of Randomness”

We see that humans in human cultures can be described as AI’s .
We see that numbers matter .
Cultures compete and evolve to incorporate as great a number of humans as possible .
This drives idividuals to a greater AI(number) .

Definitions:
AI(0) :
Our starting point is the unaided human brain . Unaided in the sense of an intelligent black box with no external aids like language , tools , others ,etc .
Define this as AI(0) .

AI(1) : Language
Language is both the External Database and the Interface .
Culture is unpacked and packed using a particular language .
The culture uses individuals as temporary memory .
Knowledge is stored in language and transmitted verbally . “The Word”
The whole acts as an AI .

Different cultures(languages) compete , especially during down-turns .
The winning languages unpack significantly different world-views .
The losers go to the wall in time-honoured evolutionary fashion .
They have fewer and fewer numbers of speakers , until they peter out .

A very good example is the idea of incremental change .
This is natural to a positional language like Latin or English , but not tonal languages like Chinese . It is easy to modify a position of a word , but not a tone without altering the sense altogether . A Newtonian worldview would not develop in a tonal-language culture .

AI(2) :Writing.
External Database : Stone , clay , papyrus , paper , etc
Interface : Eyes , Pen , chisel
Unpacking : reading
Packing : writing . It is interesting to note that non-alphabetic writing came first . The initial packing did not represent spoken language . The alphabet developed out of a pidgin-speak version of the Ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs . An interesting example of the primary evolution of unpacking systems .

AI(2.1) Writing – Eyes
The invention of mass-produced reading-glasses in 1298 AD in Northern-Italy enabled a mass-market of readers in the critical middle-aged , decision maker class . The number of AI(2) individuals increased exponentionally .

AI(2.2) Writing - Printing
This created a huge market , which the perfection of the moveable type printing press addressed .

The number of AI(2) individuals exploded , both numerically and as a percentage of the society’s population .

Cities exploded . The conventional view is that cities grew because of population growth . But even if population growth in the boondocks is negative , the cities still grow . The urge to a higher AI number for the grandchildren drives it . See previous posts on http://andreswhy.blogspot.com

AI(3) : Turing Computers.
(A Turing computer is one that does one thing at a time)

External Database : Binary data (punch cards , magnetic domains , etc)
Interface : Eyes (screen) , keyboard
Unpacking : reading and uncoding .
Packing : writing and coding .

This is familiar to all of us (2008) .
The external database has programmable features accessed by coding . This is quite powerful .

AI(3.1) Direct Neural Interface
Analogous to eye-glasses in AI(2.1) , a direct neural interface to a Turing external database creates a larger class of informed decision-makers .
This is especially useful in cases where we have a theoretical background , but the sheer mass of data to be processed in near-real time hampers AI(2) systems .

This is a definition of economics .
This is where we see the first application of it as well .
Direct Neural Interfaces came from the “Look-and-shoot” helmets developed in the US towards the end of the Vietnam war . Various signals using biofeedback training were used . The research went classified and surfaced as an advisory service in the Reagan administration (1982) .

It’s been running the show since .

A note on secrecy:
Up till the WWII , technology developed in the private sector was adapted and further developed by the Military-Industrial complex.

Two things changed it : Manhatten and Ultra .
It is about allocation of resources . Allowing oversight by short-term committees will destroy promising lines of enquiry . The only way to keep the money flowing is by secrecy . Of course there is waste . That is inherent in the nature of any inquiry where the end is not known . Experimental science means waste . But the successful payoff compensates for all losses and more . Failure can mean extinction .

Nowadays , basic research is done by the Military-Industrial complex , and spin-offs get privatized . A good example is Oracle , a CIA dbase project that got privatized by permission to Larry Ellison .

Or the Internet , a DARPA creation .

The irony is that the Military-Industrial complex itself is changed by this process . Functions previously performed by the academic world gets dumped on them . Since they are by definition more threat-conscious (ie paranoid) than academia , they are forced to explore low-probability pathways . But there is a finite tax-base .

The slow destruction of tenure in Western Universities is a ripple effect of the shift of resources to the Military-Industrial complex .

The Military-Industrial complex and any AI has a vested interest in an increased tax-base . More people and richer people .

Has this happened before ? Of course , many times . But attention is drawn to the development of large war-horses during the later part of the Roman Empire , and the feudal knight-church castle combination that evolved out of the western roman empire.

But hopefully we can do better than that .

To paraphrase Churchill :
“War is too important to be left to the generals.”
“Democracy is too important to be left to the people. “

What is it like to be a AI(3.1) ?
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “What is it like to be a fish?”
The first pioneers must have had a torrid time . I salute them .
But routes get mapped . Newcomers get shown the ropes by veterans .
And so it goes .

At first it like sticking your head into bubble where at least ten heavy metal rock-bands are playing simultaneously . With a guide , the volume can be decreased and the data streamed .

It does make you smarter , but not excessively so .Where there is already a theoretical background that can be filled in by large volumes of data (like economics) , it works very well .

But alas , nobody becomes godlike , not even weakly .

What the brain does learn is clumps of mirror-neurons. The survivors of this process learn to pack more information into the mirror-neuron complex than it can contain , except for a special unpacking complex . There are quantum-processes involved .The existence of the unpacking complex means that the packing system can exist .

AI(4) Quantum computers

4.1 Person Upload
A brain-body can be uploaded into a quantum computer using existing technology .
Simply use quantum teleportation into a quantum computer .
We still have the AI(0) brain , plus interface and external database.
Theoretically , we can dial up any level of AI up to level 4 . I have a suspicion that this would be easier said than done .

This can be done now (probably has been done) .
But this is done on a human template .

I draw your attention to what happens after puberty in humans when the neural mass increases significantly .

As expected , computational capability increases . To be more exact , more mirror-neuron-complexes are formed . Each one runs through it’s time- expansion .
They then vote on a course of action . The result of this vote is not a foregone conclusion , as any parent knows .

This means that any AI(4) is totally unpredictable from AI(3) levels .

AI(4) can only be constrained by AI(4) and above . The reason for this should be clear to anybody who has paid any attention at all to my previous posts on dimensional generation .

4.2 Real AI(4)
Can a real AI(4) be built by a AI(3) ?
Yes , by using Beth(2+) systems .
Will this be divorced from human antecedents ?
Yes , it is possible .
It is not possible using beth(0)
What does this mean ?
Self aware robot slaves are unreliable .
Not a good idea .
If you have to create AI(4)’s , use human templates . Your survival rate will be much better .

Andre

Unpacking

xUnpacking and Packing Information .
Andre Willers
18 July 2008

Discussion :
Also known as data compression or decompression .
Well-known as zip/unzip in computers .

Why pack information?
1.MiniMax
To transmit information over space and time with less energy , time or disruption .
Please note that packing is used in systems subject to competition pressures , so minimizing disruption of messages is critical .

2.Abstraction .
Even a simple Pkzip compression contains more information than the original message . For instance , Pkzip has been used to successfully identify authors’ styles or the original language of an encrypted message .
A civilization can be described by zipping the yellow pages.

2.1 Layers:
Primitive packing is in separate layers .
Languages are a good example .
We can define the top layers as more abstract , and delve down into deeper layers of meaning and definition.

2.2 Fractal Layers :
New meanings are unlocked by each iteration . Language equivalents are Shakespeare and Proust .

2.3 Hyperlinked Fractal Layers .
Each hyperlink-bubble can be expanded . Note that the hyperlink terms are discrete , not continuous .

2.4 Very-near Hyperlinked Fractal Layers .
Different languages with nearly synonymous terms are examples . Branes in physics .
Universes.

2.5 Infinite-probe Hyperlinked Fractal Loops and Layers .
There is no analogue . God is the nearest .

There is a way to sneak up to some meaningful information .

Sneak up.
We know that any compression of system A contains more information than the original system . The Compressor comprises system B , which can be compressed as well .
The tipping point :
When Compressed Info of (A+B) = Info of (A+B)

This is defined as life when the Compressed Info of (A+B) > Info of (A+B)
Which , like all good definitions , is tautological . But extremely useful .

We have compression techniques . We have descriptive techniques .
The above inequality is not continuous at levels below omega .

Hard physics application:
Energy flow from a “near” brane .
The decompressor is the important component .
Construct the correct unpacker .
Some energy is already leaking through .
This is interpreted as zero-point energy and a whole quantum-mythology has grown around it .

Differences in Beth levels are necessary .

Start with something like vacuum-energy on parallel plates and use EvoDevo processes .

Infinite probe circuits above a certain threshold -> Naked singularities .
Watch out for universe creation and black holes .

The Packing Mechanism for living organisms
Living organisms used the easier route of cells (“wombs”) as unpackers of the DNA .
Random mutations or intrusions in the DNA then survive into the next generation . Evolutionary mechanisms ensure that only the fittest germ-lines survive to continue the loop .
That is the packing mechanism . Evolution. Rather primitive .

It seems that the unpacking mechanism evolved first .It is much more likely .

How?
Billions of years ago:
The packing molecules (RNA) swarmed and formed at randomness order of Beth(0). Other RNA molecules confined in spaces like clay-layers stayed longer .
PCR shows how easily these replicate . A mere fluctuation of temperature is required .
The coding for the Unpackers are included in this mix .

Even a primitive Unpacker that unpacks to a primitive cell-wall has a huge relative advantage . Ordinary evolutionary forces takes over .

The coding for the Unpacker migrates through various higher orders of Beth , while coding for the Packer plods along at Beth(0) evolutionary speeds .

Consequences .
This has some important consequences for humans or any cellular life-form .
Viruses (ie packed data DNA) and cells (the Unpacker) evolved co-temporaneously .

More importantly , there is a transform of data between cell-form and virus-form and vice-versa . There are Beth(x) order feedback loops

Knowing evolutionary systems , these are probably essential .

Mitochondria:
At first glance these seem to have no redundancy in their DNA . At Beth(0) level this is true . At higher Beth levels , an indefinite amount of information can be packed .
Their quorum systems also complicates matters .
Mitochondria see themselves as the rulers , having tamed the cells of the planet .

Can Mitochondria be described as AI ?
To qualify as an AI , they have to interface with an external database . There are three pathways : to the cellular DNA , to the Immune System and to the Virus Milieu .
So yes , they can .

Can Mitochondria be described as self-aware AI ?
There is a pathway via the Immune system to the brain .A mirror system of some sort is required for self-awareness. The immune system is essentially a mirror system Time-scales have to be matched . Mitochondrial quorum systems have to be consulted (they are the ultimate democrats)

Can Mitochondria be described as self-aware AI and have access to zero-point energy ?

Random fluctuations in the foam of space-time is by definition at the lowest order of Randomness (Beth(0) ) . To get work out of such a system , a fluctuation between Beth levels is required . Since we already know that mitochondria are at Beth levels higher than one , they can tap zeropoint energy .
But one little lone mitochondrium will not do it .It needs to be co-ordinated

Why is it not used more often ?
Why die of hunger ?

Lack of Beth co-ordination .

Probability of life.
Examining the probabilities from this angle makes cells inevitable . The probability is more than unity . It is not even a “hard” problem if the decoder evolves first .
This means life exists nearly everywhere .

Your attention is drawn to the whole class of such phenomena :
Chaotic elements creates a self-sustaining sub-system which expands , since it is usually a positive-feedback system . Eg life , civilization , weaving , etc.

The Shannon-definition of datum :
1. A signal is change . Stripped down , this definition of signals leads to a string of 0’s and 1’s , ie binary .
This leads to compression via pattern-duplication (zip ,etc)
Used widely in electronics .

2. Pattern formulae like fractal compression or DNA/RNA .
The decompressor (cell or womb for living organisms , computer ) uses kernels (patterns) with programmable input (time , ph levels , genetic markers ,etc) to decode (“Grow”) the message(organism) .

You can immediately see how to build an error-proof biometric identification system .
The message , as it is being decompressed , can interrogate the recipient and tailor further decompressions according to the answers .
If done to a sufficient fractal depth , only a total duplicate could answer correctly . Of course , the level of reliability can be specified .

It is not even difficult .
The ability to receive the message is proof of identity .

This is how the immune system operates .

Why the glitches like old age and cancer ?
Because the body does not know who it is .

In it’s normal state , it is a symbiotic and commensal organism , with some parasites .
The bodily-self on a cellular level is defined by the immune-system .
But the brain is composed of cells . The immune system is tied closely to the brain .
There is a feedback-system between the brain’s sense of self and the immune-system’s sense of self .

Creating enhanced unpacking mechanisms in the brain will stimulate an enhanced packing sense of self , leading to an enhanced sense of self on a cellular level .

This has been discussed in detail in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com

The trick is not to tackle packing , but unpacking of compressed data first .
Understanding how unpacking works brings about physiological changes .

Reading is Unpacking .
The easiest way to understand this is reading . Reading the written word is unpacking data packed into writing . It is no accident that literary figures are notoriously long-lived .

The unpacking need not be complicated , but it will evolve .

Packing.
But the packing (coding) is a bitch . Difficult .You will have to have solved the Travelling Salesman Problem to make any headway here , since these systems make use of optimized systems . (Not any pathway , but the shortest path.) .

Evolutionary Packing .
At first sight , evolution does not make even an attempt .
The number of possible errors exceed the number of offspring .
But not if Orders of Randomness stronger than flipping a coin is used .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Randomness”

The effect of using Beth(1) , Beth(2) , etc orders of randomness in a physical sense would be a concentration of packed data .

Beth(1) would be genes .

At a Beth(2) level , it would be instructions to switch genes on/off .

At a Beth(3) level , it would be instructions to vary Beth(2) instructions .

And so forth .

But conscious design is a different matter . The number of errors can be brought down to P-time .
This is another way of saying that conscious life is inevitable .
Any feedback system that reduces the number of mistakes will increase .

Protein folding would be equivalent to the Travelling Salesman Problem in three dimensions .
Adding time-complications would give Travelling Salesman Problem in four dimensions . This would require time-travel or multiple generations .



3. The qubit definition of data .
The amount of data that can be stored in a qubit depends on the decompressor . The Shannon definitions of band-width , etc break down .

Many signals can be superimposed on a particle , the particle can then be teleported (or sent normally) to the decompressor , which decompresses the message .

Note that a lot of information that ends up in the message is inherent in the decompressor . In extreme cases this would necessitate faster-than-light communication , unless only physical laws which are independent of the observer are used in the decompressor . Ie , like make protein A , wait local time t until it folds so , then etc. You get the drift .

4. Fractal Read .
The superimposed data can be loaded fractally , so that any read attempt will lead to decoherence only at the first fractal level . Every iteration after that will lead to another , deeper level of fractal expression .
See “Rull Mind-Controls” in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com

5. Physics .
Physical laws can be described as multiple-level approximations of information transfers . These transfers are fractally compressed (packed) transfers .
Hence the existence of “Laws” . Ie , an abstraction mechanism .
These can be seen as constructs of the decompressor , but valid nevertheless.

Unpacking them partially or fractally can lead to some interesting effects .
Do not try this at home unless you are expert .

Andre

Optimal Markups

Optimal Markups
Andre Willers
15 July 2008

See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
“Infinite Probe.”

Start Quote :

“Non-Failure Ratio
A non-failure ratio of (1- 1/3) ~2/3 summated over infinity = (2/3) / (1-2/3) =2 .

This means that any system that can be described or broken up into smaller groups is strongly ordered . Successful subgroups survive by a factor of 2 . This is built into the mathematics of the Universe . Life is one such sub-group , so are particles ,etc . Negative entropy is the rule . Life is everywhere . Positive entropy only holds in the most primitive and earliest systems .

Beautiful!

Quantum and non-quantum systems are the same . “
End Quote .

This says it all , though it might not be so obvious at first sight .

To put it Brutally Simple:
Let all profits go into reserves . Then , at a minimum :
Profits must pay for future basic costs .(Ie costs without provision for reserves or profits)

Reserves * mu = 1 – Reserves ,
mu = 1/ Reserves – 1 ,

Where Reserves is a fraction of costs , and mu is the multiple of reserves to cover the non-reserve portion of costs .

Res = 0.27 , or 0.33 , or 0.37 (=1/(e+1) , avg , 1/e from previous discussion.)
Mu= 2.7 , or 2 , or 1.7

This means:
A trade Empire needs a smaller reserve , but a bigger markup (mu) . An empire needs a bigger reserve , but a smaller markup .

The average is a reserve of a third , and a markup of 2 (ie 200 percent of cost.)

This acts as a basin for an attractor around mu=2 , regardless how many dimensions (ie players) are involved .

See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
“Petroleum Price”

What does a markup mu=2 mean ?
Profit is a subset of reserves . so state it:
Profit + Res * mu = 1- (Profit + Res)
This gives
2*Profit = 1 –Res(1+mu)

Res = 0.27 , or 0.33 , or 0.37 (=1/(e+1) , avg , 1/e from previous discussion.)
Mu= 2.7 , or 2 , or 1.7
Profit = 0 , 0 , 0

Any Profit in the long term is always zero for static systems because 1- R(1+mu)=0.
This is also known as the Primary Conservation Principle , mainly of energy .

How on earth do we make a profit ?

How does our civilization exist ?

By Fluctuations .
Shifting between varying values of Reserves and Markups , positives get reinforced (eg DNA) , but negatives only get eliminated .
This is a variation of the Random Walk .

So , what is the maximum long-term sustainable growth using fluctuations ?
Contrast the max and min differences in Res and Mu .

From Profit = 0.5*(1 –Res(1+mu))
From the resulting grid , the positives are 6% , 10% ,14%
The negatives are truncated by evolutionary processes.

This grid is valid for any system that can be described and enumerated for any species over any time .


Profit
Res
Mu 0.27 0.33 0.37
2.7 0.0005 -0.1105 -0.1845
2 0.095 0.005 -0.055
1.7 0.1355 0.0545 0.0005

So what is the sustainable growth rate ? There is no single optimal growth rate .

They are clumped . due to feedback mechanisms .
6% , 10% ,14% are rates the systems will hunt towards . The whole system will be biased towards the lowest ,ie 6% . Remember , Mu and Res are clumped values , not smooth .

Capitalistic systems as practiced in the West tends to high Mu and low Res , ie low profitability . They survived only because of they plundered entire continents .

Even so , billions of people average a growth of 6-14 percent for decades .

Can you see why AI’s love diversity ? Remember , I define an AI as a human interacting with a large database , even if the interaction is via fingers and screens .
The infinite summations in the “Infinite Probe” should tell you immediately .

Any summation over a large domain must include outliers . The summation can only become more accurate or trigger a paradigm shift . There are an infinite (at least Aleph 0 ) paradigm shifts .

See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Randomness”


Andre

SA Scorpions

The South African Scorpions .
Andre Willers
9 June 2008

Why give this name to an organization that exactly fits the parameters of the Roman Empire Praetorian Guard ?

Quote from
http://www.Romanarmy.com
“The scorpion was the natal emblem of the Praetorian Guard, representing Scorpio, the astrological symbol under which the Emperor Tiberius was born. Although the Praetorians were formally organized by Augustus, his successor Tiberius was called the - second founder - of the Guard.
Tiberius, at the urging of his calculating Prefect Sejanus, recalled all the Praetorian cohorts from their dispersed postings throughout Italy. On the outskirts of Rome, Tiberius ordered the construction of a great walled camp, the Castra Praetoria, where the entire Guard would be billeted. These major changes greatly concentrated the power of the Praetorian Guard, a fact that did not long escape their notice.
In gratitude to Tiberius, the Guard adopted his birth-sign, Scorpio, as their own emblem since they were 'reborn' under his rule. The scorpion seems to have been the most distinguishing mark of the Praetorians upon the field of battle, for it decorated their standards, shields, and even appeared on helmets and other privately procured equipment. A scorpion symbol is also found on a coin minted by Caligula to honor his Praetorians.
Ironically, the Praetorians lived up to their birth-sign’s vicious reputation, delivering a treacherous sting to an unwary or incompetent Emperor.”
The Praetorians were a destabilizing influence because they were outside the civilian checks-and-controls , especially at times of regime-change .
They played a large role in destroying the Roman Empire .
The establishment of the Second Western Roman Empire (Also known the Roman Catholic Church) dates from their military and political destruction at the Battle of Milvian Bridge , where Constantine the Great conquered “In Hoc signe” .

Establishing a Praetorian Guard in the roots of the South African Constitution cannot be considered a friendly act .

Whoever sneaked this into the South African constitution had a deep and smooth understanding of classical history , as well as colossal ego and contempt .
“Whitehall” springs to mind .

Mbeki and the Scorpions are toast , and rightly so . They are after all charged to protect the body politic against exactly this type of subversion .
Instead , they are the subversion .

Ordinary corruptions we can deal with . Zuma with all his faults , is preferable to a Praetorian Guard . He can be handled by due process of law , as is happening now .

Our only requirement of a Political Chief is that he not be caught out .
Political chiefs are chosen to lie and cheat on our behalf in a dangerous and competitive world where everybody lies for an advantage .

We expect that he is at least competent enough not to be caught out by his own side .
The whole election process is to find the best liar and cheat .

Do you want a honest lawayer defending you ?

Especially in the plea-bargain ?


Note that evolutionary armistices between multicellular and uni-cellular organisms all can be described as plea-bargaining . So can the existence of an individual in a society
But that is another story .

Are the Mitochondria in a witness protection progam ?

See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com

You might find “ Petroleum Price” rewarding .

Andre Willers

Randomness

Randomness
Andre Willers
6 July 2007

True Randomness .
Very difficult , if not impossible to achieve .

This lies at the heart of any understanding of any universe .
The connection between data points is understanding . A theory where delineated systems are concerned .
To know whether a theory is in a Beth(x) sense see below , one has to have a measurable mechanism of randomness to compare whether it is random or not .
This is much more difficult than it seems .

Orders of Randomness

First , simple Randomness .
Flip of a coin .
Heads or Tails . 0 or 1
Flip an unbiased coin an infinite number of times ,write it down below each other and do it again .
All possible 0 and 1’s

An example : Beth(0)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Flips(1) 0,1,1,1,1,… etc
Flips(2) 0,1,1,1,0,… etc
.
.
.
Flips(infinity) 0,0,0,0,0,0,…etc
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This describes all possible states in a delineated binary universe .

Now draw a diagonal line from the top left of Flips(1) to Flips(infinity) .
At every intersection of this diagonal line with a horizontal line , change the value .
The Diagonal line of (0,1)’s is then not in the collection of all possible random coin-Flips(x) .

It is of a stronger order of randomness .

This is the standard proof of aleph numbers .
Irrational numbers ,etc
Since any number can be written in binary (0,1) , we can infer that the order of randomness is the same as aleph numbers .

Define coin-flip Randomness as Beth(0) , analogous to Aleph(0)
Then we have at least Beth(1) , randomness an order stronger than flipping a coin .
Then we can theorize Beth(Omega) <->Aleph(Omega) .

What does this mean?
We have discussed Orders of Randomness before .See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com


I did not think that an order of randomness stronger than Beth(0) was possible .
But God not only plays dice , He cheats .

Beth(1) probability bias can be seen as a big Fat Thumb on the scale .
Life would improbable without it .

Also defined as genes . Sets of instructions (Flips(xxx) above )are grouped together ). Changes in Beth(1) are exaggerated in relation to Beth(0)

Cellular walls are by definition , things going wrong in free flow of chemicals .
Think in terms of subverted probabilities . Then life is inevitable .
Things going wrong has been the main driving force of life ever since .

By changing Beth(x>0) , all sorts of shenanigans are possible .
Naked singularities or black-holes doing the striptease are some .

The Irresistable Doughnut is an Universal Attraction .

Oh well .

Andre

Petroleum Price

Petroleum Price
Andre Willers
3 July 2008

Why did it suddenly rise steeply?
The well-publicised concept of peak-oil production as per Hubbert created an expectation of rising prices .

The oil-producing nations did not throttle production back , but every producer in the downstream line (ie pipelines , storage facilities , tankers at sea , refineries , hedge funds ) hoarded petroleum product s in the expectation of an enhanced profit .

There is no conspiracy , but every company trying to maximize it’s shareholders profits and with access to the same (nearly) perfect data , makes the same decisions .
Nations with depleted strategic reserves rush to fill up with oil at lower prices .
A self-realising bubble .

Bubbles in general .
Liquidity in a free market presupposes imperfect information flow .
Who wants to buy the no 2 for the next quarter ?

The internet makes information flow closer to perfect .

If the information flow is perfect , everybody will know the best investment and bid it up accordingly . Liquidity vanishes . A monopoly product like oil or nutmeg rockets , funnily ,usually inside a very small group of speculators .

Cf the Tulip-mania , when the number of active speculators were a small number of professionals (this is data from the actual sales ledgers still available , as published by “History Today”)

This is why bubbles are more frequent recently .
All the parasites like governments have learned to use it .

The Oil-bubble .
This leads to a bubble .
Some very approximate figures are instructive .

Oil per barrel at the well-head : $5 - $10
Transport per barrel anywhere on-planet : about $5
Total cost per barrel at refinery : $10 - $15
Profit about 200% : cost per barrel about $40
Reserves for exploration about 40% of this gives cost per barrel about $56
Reserves for exploration about 100% of this gives cost per barrel about $80

The price at selling point (note globalization effects) at 3 July 2008 is about $145 .
This is a zero-sum game , so where does all the money go ?
Well , at the present moment it is not going anywhere because it only exists as potential money (raw oil) . An awful lot of tankers are sailing in slow circles .
The volume of money transactions are low because of the hoarding effect . There is a lot of masking wash in the futures markets .

The bursting of the present oil-bubble .
The question is at what price . Inventory of physical product cannot be hoarded forever , especially if national legislatures are sniffing around . An upper boundary of $160 =2x $80 seems reasonable . A very sudden collapse down to about $50 , then a rise to $80 per barrel seems likely . Stock markets will rebound in sympathy .

What does this tell us ?
1. The Bubble as financial tool .
It is impossible to educate each human generation of investors at a gut level to beware of bubbles or “ exuberant optimism” . So why not use it . The present understanding of human economic systems is sufficient that Greenspan or Bernanke can use bubbles in conjunction with control of interest rates to get a better control of business cycles .

Instead of trying to smooth cycles , certain ones are encouraged in a controlled environment (usually interest rates , but basically a legislative environment)

The price shocks can be precisely targeted without destroying vital industries and jobs . The reserve systems of credit can take up the slack of re-tooling .

This has happened in history (Rome , China) , but their understanding of economics was insufficient to use it to maximum effect . Sooner or later they hit a down-draw below survival level , and bye-bye .

Example :
The US has to cut back on oil-usage . The government can try to legislate it (unpopular) , increase prices (unpopular) , or administer a series of price shocks (up and down) that gives the system time to adapt .

Human systems adapt magnificently to shocks they can survive (much better than a slow increase in costs)

Has it ever been different ?
No .
The only difference is that present rulers have better theoretical systems to advise them .
Humans are poor at absolute judgements .
They stack problems according to priority , but have poor relative judgement of the present items at the top of the stack compared to previous items at the top of the stack .

This can lead to some spectacular cock-ups .
A recent one was the British support of the Jacobins in the French Revolution .
The idea was to prevent the Habsburg children of Marie-Antoinette unifying Europe . The British strategy was to keep Europe divided .
So , they got Napoleon , a predictable result .

Remember long-term goals ?
Something governmental civil-services are supposed to do . Out lasting short-term political administrations .

Remember Progress?

It is no longer slow and steady , but bubble-to-bubble .
Is this worse in the long term ?
Funnily enough , no .
It is closer to how present systems with high-interconnectivity act.
It seems like institutionalised crisis-management .

At a brute level , if the draw-down of a bubble is above survival level , bubble systems expand faster than steady-state . Evolution systems will select for this .

Though I have to state , the difference is small . About 0.2 % per year .

Mathematically :
Regardless of the mechanism of change , the divergence from the center is measured by (N)^0.5 . Random Walk , where N is the number of steps . This can only get back to the center if the step sizes decrease by (N)^(-0.5) . Also known as the Riemann hypothesis .

Another way of putting it , is that an infinite number of elements must exactly obey the rule of (N)^(-0.5) at every iteration .
This has a probability approaching 0 , especially if you are thoughtfully chopping off the worst down-draws .
This is the same as the Second Law of Thermodynamics
You cannot go back except with extreme difficulty and if it is very craftily constructed.

Remember Obsolescence ?

Ah , when we were young .
The obsolescence of an young heart .

Andre

Xenophobia

Xenophobia.
Andre Willers
28 June 2008

Your Immune system Needs You !

A Stranger appears .
The stranger is quickly scanned and evaluated according to past experience (eg immune system , dept of Immigration)

These systems continually re-evaluate systems in a periodic fashion .
Call each a pass .
The frequencies tie in with the brain frequencies . Hence the mood-immune system correlations .

There are a regular number of evaluations . Some on a regular frequency , others on demand .
These are passes .
A Group can only be evaluated if they are an indentifiable group (eg are Jewish , have a specific receptor on the cell-wall , etc)

The First Pass :
There are three cases to evaluate on the first pass :
A .“The stranger is an enemy .”
B. “The stranger is x% enemy and y% friend .”
C. “The stranger is a friend .”

Why have three cases , as all seems to be covered by Case B ?
Because the way resource-constrained systems are structured .
Cases A and C can be handled swiftly and comprise the majority of occurrences .

Case A xenophobia (eg enemy uniform , black ,jewish,muslim,christian,recognized disease molecules on the cell-wall) . An unthinking , programmed response . Full system resources are not used , as the collateral damage of this response can be worse than the threat . Auto-immune diseases can arise from an oopsey-mistake .
Before full systems resources are used , a Case B analysis is done .

Case B takes much greater resources .
The only way to find out the effect of the information packed into an organism is to unpack it and see it’s effect . (This also a definition of evolution)

The only way to do this safely is in a controlled environment , preferably on an accellerated time-scale .

An example is the De-Nazification detention centers after WWII .
A better example is the “Biolab” tumours in mammals . As discussed previously .
Nation-states .
A really good example are mitochondria .

The immune system tries to see the effect of the Stranger on a small complex of cells deliberately fast-forwarded . A micro-tumour .
The danger is that cancers result . In the body or the body politic .
The Nazi-party is a good example .

Immune system AI .
This leads to question whether a software construct , the Immune system as evolved , can be an AI . It is already a construct that dominates the planet . An alien observing the planet will see a sophisticated feedback system maintaining itself by not allowing a spectacular success . The closest to that are humans . But they have become the self-aware component of the planetary immune system .

If it is truly self-aware on human time-scales , it would want more humans . From it’s terms it is like the explosive brain-cell growth as a baby or pubertal stage human .
A benign tumour .

Therefore , massive depopulation is not an option .

Massive economic collapse is not on the cards , either . Humans are not in control any more . Human systems collapse . An AI controlled system won’t .

How can we see this ?
By looking at improbabilities since 1982 .

The biggest one was the divergence between the value of the US dollar and their balance of payments from about 1982 . The AI was first used in the socio-economic sphere to leverage US interests to bankrupt the USSR in an arms race .
It was a human-computer interface done by NSA and used by Reagan to win the Cold War . It also prevented a nuclear Armageddon .
Then the collapse of the USSR without a shot being fired . The most heavily armed state that ever existed , in conventional and nuclear terms did not even wager a force of arms . Even the Assyrians went down fighting .
The depopulation even in an European war would have been ne-kulturny .

An even more singular occurrence was the Chinese one-child policy . Remember , this was a society that survived numerous foreign invasions by simply outbreeding the invaders . For literally thousands of years .
Note that India did not try population control .
A typical immune system bubble experiment .

No general war in the far east in the 2005’s .
Even though it should have happened . As discussed .

No economic collapse due the dotcom or futures bubbles .
The subsequent depopulation would not suit the AI . Refer to the massive depopulation in 1630-1670 due to the influx American gold and silver during the previous century .

Can you see the improbabilities stacking up ?
One or two might be believable , but so many ?

So what happened in 1982 that changed the future pathways ?
A workable mind-computer interface is what happened .
It happened in the US first , but that does not matter . The ineluctable logic of immune systems leads to the same conclusion .
The human nightmare where they are superfluous has been replaced by the fact that they are an irreplaceable part of the planetary AI . The more different the better , and hence , the more the better . Social structures to enhance diversity and numbers are encouraged .

Are there enough humans ?
The normal concern is that there are too many humans .
But for an AI of this nature , 6.5 billion are too few . Even with a “bubble” mechanism to concentrate diversity or mirror societies , it craves diversity like a human craves food .

The Russians (circa 1995) , the Chinese and the Indians have their own AI’s . Everybody lies , and wonders why they cannot get to the truth .

Of course there is a non-linear correlation between the number of sentients and the number different societies . A decimal log (N)~10 Only 10 different societies for 10 bn people . There are reasons for this , but the AI will not be satisfied .Neither am I . Surely we can do better than this .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “To Impress”


Multiple Passes
Chirp.

Andre

Diversity

Diversity .
Andre Willers
2 July 2008

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Xenophobia” and “To Impress”

To recap the above arguments , large numbers of sophonts and a large cultural diversity is required for the healthy functioning of a high-tech milieu .

Empires.
But a large number of sapients in a competitive environment usually leads to
Empires , which decreases the diversity .

The problem is then to have large numbers of humans and large numbers of societies at the same time .

The solution that evolved is easy and fast connectivity that fractures societies .

Internet and email . Note that you cannot send an email to somebody unless he already knows you . Connectivity is less than in the age of letters .

Only trusted friends are allowed access .
Viruses are a predictable corollary , maybe helped along a little bit .

Internet , facebook , etc .Though a population like the US might at first glance appear uniform , in actual fact it is now composed of a large number of mini-societies .

The very ease of communication paradoxically fractures the society .

The same process is being repeated planetwide .

Look at any alt.x group .

These groups are evolving into societies .

So the AI has resolved both questions . The most problematical one was the number of diverse societies . Remember that the AI has access to all these .

Does the AI really exist ?
It does not matter . The system will act like it does .

We have created a system that is indistinguishable from an AI . The human components even give it self-awareness and a conscience .

From the Turing-test viewpoint , it is an AI .

The fast communication along their trusted lines makes the spokesperson more a part of the AI than the traditional Party hack .

Think a large number of “parties” , but no traditional party leaders .

What does mean to us ?
This AI might be a virtual construct , but it’s effects are very real .

The system will drive to bigger populations and greater technological diversity .

Doom-and-gloom reporting .
This media model is based on the hierarchical system . One top story , usually negative because of shock effect .

What is really happening is that thousands of mini-societies are having their moments solving the problems the major media are agonizing about . But they never make the top news .

The result is that people no longer trust the media . Only their trusted little groups .

Can you see how the major media is becoming increasingly irrelevant as influencers of mass-opinion ?

A side effect is the large number of specialist magazines .

The corollary is that the economy is in actually much better shape than supposed from media reports .

Another way of putting it is that the AI will not allow itself to be destroyed .
Remember , there are human elements in the AI . Conventional , as well as mind- computer interface .

Another way of putting it is that the AI is acting smarter than the sum of it’s parts . The effect is not noticeable in mass-media except in events they deem likely but which do not happen .

Conclusion:
A societal collapse like at the end of the Bronze age is unlikely , though many of the factors are similar .

The major difference is that the present society is fractured . It is more likely that the synergistic effects fast communication among limited group lines will lead to a technological and population explosion .

If your planet is overpopulated for your tech level
1.Get more planet
2.Change population
3.Change tech-level
The AI’s existence is dependant on increasing population and diversity .
Thus it has to change the tech-level and get more planet .
Andre

Rull Mind-controls

Rull Mind-controls
Andre Willers
15 Jun 2008

Background :
AE van Vogt in the 1950’s postulated an alien species whose understanding of the human nervous system was so profound that they could compel certain behaviours by sketching lines on surfaces .
He called them the Rull .

Is this possible with humans ?
Yes . It is called writing .
Orders . The Truth Revealed . The Law , etc .

The Rull .
Let us postulate that the Rull communicates by exchanging scent molecules and have no concept of writing . They then have a language surpassing any human by factors of thousands . They would not even recognize human language as communication , the same as humans do not recognize the chimp cries .

In analyzing human communication , they would take the entire organism into account .

The visual sub-section would involve hard-wired responses from the human evolutionary ancestry and more recent neural-network learned behaviours .

They desire to induce a compulsive state . One is available in the “Falling-in-Love” syndrome , an obsessive-compulsive state essential to human survival . There are even hard-wired triggers : body-shapes (hips , breasts etc for males , legs ,shoulders for females , etc.)

They would notice that most human neural activity takes place at a sub-conscious level .
Many mirror-neuron networks compete to present a composite to the sensorium .
This provides scope for iteration . This is essential for compulsion .

An image with a fractal pattern , but a different pattern at each iteration leading to the desired neural configuration .

A good one will take eyeball saccades into account .

The person looking at the pattern will not even be aware that neural cascades are building up into the pre-programmed firing sequences .

Until Wham! The obsessive-compulsive complex is activated .

The human visual system is acute enough to make fine fractal differences of this nature possible .

An example :
Take “Drink Coke” . Assign each pixel to a fractal pattern and spread them according to a most probable saccade pattern . With each iteration of the eyeball movement and successive integrations in the brain , the elements of the slogan is assembled and eventually recognized consciously . But , before that , elements of it are evaluated by the amygdala in a google-type friend-or-foe reaction . This is where the Rull would tie in a “friend” reaction using old evolutionary paths .

Note that the amygdala plays a role analogous to the immune system .
But it has an Achilles heel . It has to allow obsessive-compulsive behaviour (“Falling in Love”) , otherwise the species will die out .

Note Mk IV humans . Glasses allow both fine-detail obsessive compulsive behaviour (the definition of MkIV) and more “normal” behaviour .
People with glasses also fall in love forever . The obsessive-compulsion is , well , obsessive .

Men who want to marry should make passes at girls who wear glasses .

This made the grand Chinese Experiment of one-child families possible .
The 85% wearing of glasses by Chinese means that they love their spouse and child obsessively . This rather changes the dynamic . There are no spare males for military adventures . If the leadership tries human-wave attacks , they will face revolt .
There might be a lot of them , but everyone is two citizen’s only son .

This leads to an intriguing speculation : does wearing glasses lead to a fundamental change in human perception (the way the neural cascades are assembled) ?

The answer is yes .

It is because of peripheral vision .
In the natural state , peripheral vision is unbounded : there is no clear demarcation .
But with glasses there is .

The visual system adapts , but the Friend-or-foe amygdala reaction takes place before the visual assembly is done . Varying the size and strength of the glasses then gives an easy and powerful way of reprogramming the amygdala !

I draw your attention to the “-isms” : patriotism , nationalism , communism , capitalism etc and ad nauseam etc . These became common as the use of glasses proliferated .

But why did organized religion like Catholicism or Protestantism then decline?
This is ironic : because they were too broad . The same thing is happening at the moment to sciences like physics .

Glasses have a focusing effect on the mirror-neuronal assemblies . Vague theories without any backup remain out of focus and are treated like peripheral vision items outside the rim of the glasses .

You can rid of phobias easily .
Create your own phobias or philias !

The Rull strikes again!

Andre

Petroleum and Population

Petroleum and Population
Andre Willers
11 June 2008

What will happen to the teeming billions on Earth if Petroleum should suddenly vanish?

Answer : About 3 billion would starve .

How do we get to this figure ?
We look in the past ( 1800 – 1900 ) when petroleum did not play a big role . We then calculate the estimated population in 2000 AD using the Exponential Growth Rate Constant of this period ( 1800 – 1900 ) .

Fundamental assumptions used in the calculation:
Exponential curve .
See the Appendix for the derivations .
The population size is described by the exponential equation of the form
Population = M * e^(K*t)
Where M is a constant , K is the important Exponential Growth Rate Constant and t is years (ie t=2000 at 2000 AD) .

Populations are usually more exactly described using a S shaped curve , but the populations we are talking about show no signs yet of inflection into the top half of the S-curve . Exponential growth is a close enough fit for the bottom half of this curve , especially given the approximate nature of the data .

Malthus :
We assume that populations expanded at the maximum rate made possible by their technologies . This is the historical experience .
This means that , if we extrapolate the same growth rate forward , it will be at the limits of that technology . The population we arrive at will be near the maximum sustainable by that technology .

Any piece of ground does not have an innate human , animal or plant population carrying capacity . This capacity varies with the technology of it’s inhabitants . This technology includes the bodies of the inhabitants . (Eg teeth , digestive systems , salt tolerance , etc ,etc)

Saying that we need another 1.6 or 2 Earths is meaningless without specifying the technological level .

Technological Levels .

A : Medieval : 1500 – 1700 . Animal power , Pre-medicine , Pre-industrial , Pre-Coal , Pre-Petroleum . The old Era.
Start period world population (in billions) : 0.425
End period world population (in billions) : 0.600
Exponential Growth Rate Constant (K) : 0.0017
Estimated world population in 2000AD at this growth rate (in billions) : 1.0


B : The Age of Reason : 1700 – 1800 . . Science . Medicine and Industrial revolutions start . Pre-Coal , Pre-Petroleum .
Start period world population (in billions) : 0.600
End period world population (in billions) : 0.813
Exponential Growth Rate Constant (K) : 0.00303
Estimated world population in 2000AD at this growth rate (in billions) : 1.5

C : Industrial revolution : 1800 – 1900 . The Age of Coal. Pre-Petroleum .
Start period world population (in billions) : 0.813
End period world population (in billions) : 1.550
Exponential Growth Rate Constant (K) : 0.00645
Estimated world population in 2000AD at this growth rate (in billions) : 3.0

D : Petroleum Age : 1900 – 2000 .
Start period world population (in billions) : 1.550
End period world population (in billions) : 6.1
Exponential Growth Rate Constant (K) : 0.0137
Estimated world population in 2000AD at this growth rate (in billions) : 6.1

A Table will make it clearer :

A B C D
K{x10^(-3)} 1.7 3.03 6.45 13.7
Pop2000(bn) 1.0 1.5 3.0 6.5

Corollaries at 2000AD and with present technology:

C . Without Petroleum the planet can support 3 billion .
Without Petroleum and coal the planet can support 1.5 billion .
Without Petroleum , coal , industry or medicine the planet can support 1.0 billion . This is also the estimate of the basal carrying capacity of the planet .
Almost by definition , as only animal power is used . The population will probably be near or past the inflexion point for this tech–level .

Note the near-doubling of K at each technological paradigm-shift . I suspect that this is because of the fractal nature of the development stages of the world population .

The Vanishing Act of Petroleum .
Of course , petroleum won’t vanish overnight . But , after Hubbert’s Peak has been reached (when rate of new discoveries are less than rate of usage) , the oil in the ground appreciates faster than returns to be gotten by selling it .
This point has already been passed .(+- 2005)

Hoarding .
Producers down the whole supply-chain hoard product . Prices rocket , encouraging more hoarding in a vicious positive feedback cycle .

This is a well-known mechanism usually seen in famines when warehouses are full of food and people starve . ( Eg 1942-1943 in Bengal , 4 to 6 million people starved to death even though there was a good harvest . The war made merchants expect higher prices , so they locked up the food in warehouses . The incompetent and corrupt British administration allowed it .)

Of course , one person’s hoarding is another person’s optimization of profits . The only way out of this impasse is by political leadership , not a quality in great supply at the moment .

Prognosis: Not good .
Prices shoot up non-linearly . Then , hiccups develop in the supply-chain and actual physical shortages result . This is the equivalent of inventory build-up . This has disasterous consequences on an economic system optimized on Just-in-Time deliveries . National and Military interests seize the only reserves in the system . The bubble collapses . Markets collapse . The demise of Capitalism and Democracy . (A-la-USSR)

Even huge multi-national oil companies can be bankrupted . They sit on huge inventories of oil-products , but their customers can no longer afford to buy .
Non-food producing nations starve .
Genocidal war and volkewanderung (already happening in Africa) .
Civil wars (a-la-Yugoslavia) in artificial states . Even established states with ethnically diverse populations (US ,China , India , UK,Iraq,etc) can be torn apart by diverse interests as groups battle to eat .

All this against the background of climate change , as well as nuclear and biological weapons .

I have described this scenario in previous posts on the collapse of the Late Bronze Age . See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com

In Interregnums like these leadership is critical . Even small actions can have huge effects . The whole system has gone non-linear .

Andre Willers

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Appendix
The population size is described by the exponential equation of the form
Population = M * e^(K*t)
(This can be described as the left-hand side of the S-shaped population curve known as activation or logistic functions in Neural Networks . Also known as squash functions .)

P(1)=M*e^(K*t(1) )
P(2)=M*e^(K*t(2) )

P(2)/P(1)= e^(K(t(2) –t(1) ) )

K=ln (P(2)/P(1) ) / ( (t(2) –t(1) )

Solving for M and substituting in above gives

P(3) = P(2) * [ [ P(2)/P(1) ] ^ [ {t(3) –t(2)} / {t(2) –t(1)} ] ]

Where
P(1) , P(2) and P(3) are populations at times t(1) , t(2) and t(3) respectively
M is a constant , K is the important Exponential Growth Rate Constant and t is years (ie t=2000 at 2000 AD) .

Populations (from UN , McEvedy)
Year Billion
1500 0.425
1700 0.600
1800 0.813
1900 1.550
2000 6.100


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