Ancient Egyptian Technology
Andre Willers
27 Jan 2008
How did they shape and transport large stone masses using copper and wood ?
Discussion :
Shaping hard stone :
They sawed it .
Copper is a soft metal . Hard silica grit (sand or quartz) gets impregnated and fixed in the soft copper saw and these hard bits cut the rock .
How they did it :
From jewelry we know that they knew how to draw copper wire .
A tensioned copper wire is sufficient to form a cutting edge . The tension was supplied by a bow-type saw .
The economic trick : the copper was recycled . The metal was very expensive , but it is an element .
They could recover nearly every particle of copper abraded away .Simple smelting would suffice .
The cutting wire is sluiced continuously by a cooling liquid , which is collected and reprocessed . The sides of cut is also later brushed down . The workers were washed down as well . Really high efficiencies of recycling can be obtained (99%) , especially if a slightly sticky liquid is used .
Evidence :
The Narmer Tablet (google it) . Very old (at least 5 000 yrs before present)
On the front and back at the top left and right of the tablet are stylized bow-saws .
Figure : connect BACGH and JEDFI .
C D
- -
A- - G F - - E
- - H I - -
B---------------------------J
BACGH is one horn fixed to beam BJ . H is the point of the left horn .
JEDFI is another horn fixed to beam BJ. I is the point of the right horn .
The horns are tensioned by sinews wound tight between BAC and CGH for the left , and likewise between JED and DFI for the right .
(If you examine the front left top horns of the Narmer Tablet , faint lines can still be seen showing the sinews .)
The copper wires strung between the left horn CGH and the right horn DFI are thus placed under an even elastic tension . Many wires are strung (looking like a harp) . Faint traces of these can be seen on the top front left bow of the Narmer Tablet
Note that the horns are curved much more than is natural because of the tensioning . See the bottom back of the tablet for a natural depiction of a bull . The horns are very different .
The length of the copper wire is not limited by the limitations of how long a wire can be drawn , as shorter lengths can knot-welded together . Indeed , some photos of the Narmer saws show thin lumps like splices or welds . This would not affect the sawing action , as this is dependant on abrasion .
So quite big blocks of stone can be sawed .
The user starts with a full harp of wires . As one wears away and breaks , they simply continue with the next wire . When all wires are used up , the bow is restrung .The shavings recycles continuously into copper wire .
A sawayer team can saw all day if they have the necessary backup team .
These would all be skilled professionals .
An intriguing note are the “ears” on the tablet bows . Close examination shows that they look more like leaves . The actual bull on the reverse does not show the same ears . One speculates that this might be the plant that is the source of the stickiness in the lubricating fluid .
Wire-drawing , chisels , drills and lathes .
The middle figure on top of both sides of the tablet schematically shows these .
The “catfish” represents the wire-drawing apparatus . It seem like a plate-type wire drawing process . The “whiskers” are the wires . Google wire-drawing .
The chisel is the Y shaped squiggle in the centre . Usually bronze or copper edged . This is a generally agreed interpretation .
Next to it on both sides are what looks like two cricket-wickets . One “cricket-wicket” is a drill . The center is drill-stave , tipped by an abrasive soft-copper bit (the same principle as the stone-saw) .
The two staves on the sides are guides to keep the drill in place and to guide the bowstring that powers the drill . (Drill-bows are a stone-age technology .)
With this , long straight holes can be drilled through rock .
Or gemstones . This is still the technology used in jewelry manufacture . A sticky drillbit coated with an abrasive is drilled into the target .
Two drills rotating around an axis while drilling is a primitive lathe . Good for making columns , pillars ,etc . Hence the two “cricket-wicket” drills on the tablet .
Moving large stones .
This problem has been solved by the Egyptian Department of Antiquities during their excavations of the workers’ quarters near the Pyramids . They found toy quarter-circles in childrens’ graves . They were mimicking in play what their parents did .
Strap four wooden quarter-circles to square and you have a circle . The stone blocks were not dragged , they were rolled . (This has been done in actual reconstruction with pyramid blocks) . Really large blocks (thousands of tonnes) can be moved by this method . The only limitation is the strength of wood and the strength of the surface over which it must roll . It can easily be calculated , but even cursory examination shows that it must be very large (cf mass capacity of wooden , wheeled cart)
Ancient Egyptian Wheelbarrow .
Since a large percentage of the pyramids is large fill-in rubble , they must have had an efficient way of transporting smaller , irregularly shaped rocks . It is speculated that nets filled with packed rubble were fitted with circle-segment strap-ons and rolled . Like our wheelbarrow , except that the wheel goes around the load .
Some Speculations :
Compound Bows :
The Egyptians probably invented compound-bow technology in their efforts to increase the efficiency of the bow-saw as described above . It then percolated back north via the mercenaries (like the alphabet) .
Nomads cannot even make a good compound bow . The reason is that the layers of glue between the strips of horn must be kept absolutely still for months to set properly. A really good bow around 1200 AD (Mongols) took about a year to make . The factories were around the edges of the steppes and were not nomadic . Places for artificers , pregnant woman , children , wounded convalescents and old people . About a third of the Mongol population resided here .
No nomad population could develop a compound bow . The development process would have involved long trial-and-error with different glues , thicknesses and types of horn , curing pressures and rates , temperatures , record keeping and lots of time in a stable environment . Only the Egyptians qualify .
But once the recipe was known , duplication was fairly easy .
Both the Egyptians and Middle Easterners like Assyrians used compound bows , but it came into its own with the horse . The Parthian shot is proverbial .
What amuses me is that the single weapon that killed more people than any other was developed as a better saw .
Incas
Resin coated strings impregnated with obsidian or quartz flakes will slice through stone . Cheap and easy to make . But not as easily guided . Look at the wavering joins at Sacsahuamen .
How did they join them ?
First , bring two rough blocks together using the strap-on roller technique . Then use parallel sawing strings repeatedly till the edges fit tightly . Then roll them into place .
What about the wheel ? Note that they were aware of the wheel . We know that from their childrens’ toys . Note that the evidence for the Egyptian technique was also found in childrens’ toys .
Sigh .
No anti-gravity . No advanced Ancient Civilizations with Mysterious Knowledge .
Just a bunch of priest-kings out for number one , a large number of suckers and lots of elbow-grease .
And so it goes .
Andre
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Monday, January 21, 2008
Why do Doctors love golf ?
Why do Medical Doctors love golf?
Andre Willers
22 Jan 2008
Why do they like golf ?
Because they are effortlessly better at it than others .
Why ?
Because they know where their fingertips are . Their tactile and resonance training is quite intensive . All that tapping on the chest , probing into the abdomen and long hours on their feet train them into a good golfer’s body image . It is easier to translate this into a better game of golf than somebody who has not spent seven years doing this .
Can it be better ?
Of course . Fingertapping execercises as set out in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
“Athlete” will not only dramatically better their golf , but also their professional expertise . It works both ways . A sport that improves hand-eye-ear co-ordination also improves the doctor’s medical expertise . But good luck in getting your Club fees past the Receiver .
Note that the musical (resonance) is essential in any of these methods . It ties the ancient resonance mechanisms in the fingertips and feet together in an effortless manner . You get better , but only notice it if you actively monitor your scores . There is no sense of strain .
What about typists?
Has anyone ever looked ? Are touch-typists better at some sports ? Their body is obviously aware where their fingertips are , but there is no rhythmic or resonance accompaniment to the training . In other words , a hard slog not using existing pathways . Therefore not integrated either . Retraining using fingertip-music mechanisms should quickly integrate .
Resonance.
There must be some sort of resonance using the ( ½,1/4,1/8,1/16,…) scale to activate the old mechanisms in the fingertips and the feet .
What about Chinese music?
No physical instrument can produce sound without resonance . All resonance effects use this halving scale (physical law) . But electronic instruments do not . Thus the injunction to use classical or semi-classical music in training .
What about balance ?
All shoes involving balance are studded . Tennis shoes have very broad studs . The studs are primarily for the balancing sensorium and only secondarily for traction .
A balanced person always has traction .
The optimum boot has lots of little studs (up to one per sq mm) , and a very thin sole .
No ankle support , as this hinders learning balance and actually increases the frequency of injuries .
(Exceptions : rugby scrums , where the players are not in balance , and yachts , where pristine planking is more important . Old sailing ships had barefoot sailors and the planking was riffed on the joins . Good ships had lots of knots on the deck-planking . Ice hockey has curved blades , the equivalent of fore-aft studs .)
Diabetic peripheral Neuropathy .
This illustrates the importance of the local nature of balance in the feet . The long nerves are out of action , but the person does not fall over . His brain might feel as if he is walking on blocks of frozen flesh , but local nerves ladder up the legs , maintaing balance and giving important data to the muscles of the leg and the brain . Walking balance can be maintained even with the eyes closed , which is pretty nifty if you think about it .
Of course , this can be improved with training (as discussed) .
An interesting aside here is some recent developments in dentistry . Only the pain nerves are targeted . A variant of lignocaine that cannot cross the cell-barrier is used with capsaicum . The capsaicum receptors open to let the lignocaine operate only in those neurons associated with pain perception . This has obvious applications in elderly patients whose balance system has shut down because of over-stimulation from pain-receptors . Intuitively , one would expect that this would have an effect (even a dramatic effect) on rheumatoid arthritis . “If there is a pain , there must be something wrong . Attack!”
Andre
Andre Willers
22 Jan 2008
Why do they like golf ?
Because they are effortlessly better at it than others .
Why ?
Because they know where their fingertips are . Their tactile and resonance training is quite intensive . All that tapping on the chest , probing into the abdomen and long hours on their feet train them into a good golfer’s body image . It is easier to translate this into a better game of golf than somebody who has not spent seven years doing this .
Can it be better ?
Of course . Fingertapping execercises as set out in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
“Athlete” will not only dramatically better their golf , but also their professional expertise . It works both ways . A sport that improves hand-eye-ear co-ordination also improves the doctor’s medical expertise . But good luck in getting your Club fees past the Receiver .
Note that the musical (resonance) is essential in any of these methods . It ties the ancient resonance mechanisms in the fingertips and feet together in an effortless manner . You get better , but only notice it if you actively monitor your scores . There is no sense of strain .
What about typists?
Has anyone ever looked ? Are touch-typists better at some sports ? Their body is obviously aware where their fingertips are , but there is no rhythmic or resonance accompaniment to the training . In other words , a hard slog not using existing pathways . Therefore not integrated either . Retraining using fingertip-music mechanisms should quickly integrate .
Resonance.
There must be some sort of resonance using the ( ½,1/4,1/8,1/16,…) scale to activate the old mechanisms in the fingertips and the feet .
What about Chinese music?
No physical instrument can produce sound without resonance . All resonance effects use this halving scale (physical law) . But electronic instruments do not . Thus the injunction to use classical or semi-classical music in training .
What about balance ?
All shoes involving balance are studded . Tennis shoes have very broad studs . The studs are primarily for the balancing sensorium and only secondarily for traction .
A balanced person always has traction .
The optimum boot has lots of little studs (up to one per sq mm) , and a very thin sole .
No ankle support , as this hinders learning balance and actually increases the frequency of injuries .
(Exceptions : rugby scrums , where the players are not in balance , and yachts , where pristine planking is more important . Old sailing ships had barefoot sailors and the planking was riffed on the joins . Good ships had lots of knots on the deck-planking . Ice hockey has curved blades , the equivalent of fore-aft studs .)
Diabetic peripheral Neuropathy .
This illustrates the importance of the local nature of balance in the feet . The long nerves are out of action , but the person does not fall over . His brain might feel as if he is walking on blocks of frozen flesh , but local nerves ladder up the legs , maintaing balance and giving important data to the muscles of the leg and the brain . Walking balance can be maintained even with the eyes closed , which is pretty nifty if you think about it .
Of course , this can be improved with training (as discussed) .
An interesting aside here is some recent developments in dentistry . Only the pain nerves are targeted . A variant of lignocaine that cannot cross the cell-barrier is used with capsaicum . The capsaicum receptors open to let the lignocaine operate only in those neurons associated with pain perception . This has obvious applications in elderly patients whose balance system has shut down because of over-stimulation from pain-receptors . Intuitively , one would expect that this would have an effect (even a dramatic effect) on rheumatoid arthritis . “If there is a pain , there must be something wrong . Attack!”
Andre
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Athlete
Athlete
Andre Willers
20 Jan 2008
Athlete .
Athletic prowess is intimately bound to the body self-image .
Body self-image :
Your body knows where it is by knowing where its fingertips are , then eyes , then ears , then feet soles in this order .
Why fingertips first ?
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
The scared hominid perched on a branch in the dark while the leopard-class predator stalks nearer , disturbing the elastic branch in certain very specific harmonics , is primarily reliant on sense-pads and computing in its fingertips to survive . Later on , visual systems became more important , but the primary , underlying sense of self-image is in feedback from the fingertips .
This can be easily shown :
Play some rousing semi-classic or chorus music that can be finger tapped to .Try to tap the fingertips of each hand against the other in time to the music :
a. With your eyes closed
b. With your eyes open
You will notice that you miss more with your eyes open . Your eye-hand system is not properly co-ordinated , and the fingertip sense is better and messed up by the visual input .
Training :
You will notice that eye-ears are coupled because they are on the same head - chassis , which is coupled to the body-platform housing the arms and fingertips .
We simply train each fingertip to know where every other fingertip is , with or without visual input .
This is done not only in the brain but also on local level (ie at the level of fingers , hands ,arms) . This better self-image leads to better performance .
The recipe:
Once again , play some rousing semi-classic or chorus music that can be finger tapped to . Move the head back-and-forth through an arc of about 5 degrees .Try to tap the fingertips of each hand against the other in time to the music .Keep on for at least 10 minutes . You will notice that you rapidly improve . It is because you are using existing brain-body mechanisms .
Stop after 10 minutes and do not try again until after a sleep .
This potentiates long-term memory .
Take some cod-liver oil .The cod-liver oil gives essential fatty acids for memory formation .
Moving the head compensates if you are using a CD , but also integrates the visual system .
Comment :
The first improvement is extremely rapid ( 10 minutes ) and also permanent after the next day .
Then you will wonder why you could not do such a simple thing before . There is no sense of strain .
You are simply relearning things that you should be doing naturally . Further improvement increments are smaller as per law of diminishing returns .
Whether you are playing golf , tennis , hockey , basketball , etc , knowing where your fingertips are relative to your body , or rather ,where your body is relative to your fingertips , is the thing defining athleticism in these sports .
Overtraining:
These are fairly simple neural-networks . If you over-work them , they start to learn minutae .
If your pinkie lifts while drinking tea , stop!
Da Feet ,da feet!
Originally , proto-homonids had the same sensitivity on toes . When they transferred to the ground , a lot of this sensitivity transferred to the soles of the feet for balance . This sensitivity has been quantized (roughly one node per square cm of sole .) Fairly coarse , but sufficient to give enough feedback for normal balance .
But what about abnormal balance ?
Dojo mats for judo and karate (where balance is critical) , uses rough fibres woven to these dimensions .
Old people lose their sense of balance because of degradation of feedback from their soles . Their body-image is not in balance .
Old age sensitization of soles using stimuli on this order is now commercially available .
Sportspersons use them as well .
What to do if you cannot afford a $7000 vibrating sole from Switserland or the US ?
Well , move your feet in a rhythmic pattern . Have a floormat with a knobby surface and dance barefoot on it to the time of the music . The thing is to train the system .
Integrated Training System :
Watch ITARIN (while wearing your glasses) on a computer screen while listening to some rousing beat classical music , while moving your head side-to-side over a about 5 degree arc , while dancing barefoot on a knobbly mat , all the time tapping your fingertips together .
Repeat this three times daily about once every three months .
Apart from looking ridiculous , you will be :
1. Training your eyes for better vision with/without glasses.
2. Integrating your self-image with your visual and auditory system.
3. Improving your balance.
Yes , but what about my hair ?
Your bodyhair defines the envelope of your body .
Note that the most potent , in-your-face , body-to-body , contact warriors the planet has ever seen were the Greek Hoplites . They were scraped clean of all body-hair by strigils . For hairy monkeys , the only real sense of self they could feel was in mano-a-mano combat ,or wrestling . This definition of male beauty is still with us . Ever seen a hairy Greek statue?
As discussed , the invention of soap did a lot to do in the Roman Empire .
So what can you do ? Long ,straggly hairs are markers of old age . ( See previous discussion) . Short chest hairs are a sign of manliness among some cultures . So , cut them .
Males have sort of x-ray vision that can see straggly armpit hairs in females . A sort of subliminal friction and smell effect . Similarly , females can detect smelly old men , even when they are young .
Sigh .
Endit
Andre Willers
20 Jan 2008
Athlete .
Athletic prowess is intimately bound to the body self-image .
Body self-image :
Your body knows where it is by knowing where its fingertips are , then eyes , then ears , then feet soles in this order .
Why fingertips first ?
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
The scared hominid perched on a branch in the dark while the leopard-class predator stalks nearer , disturbing the elastic branch in certain very specific harmonics , is primarily reliant on sense-pads and computing in its fingertips to survive . Later on , visual systems became more important , but the primary , underlying sense of self-image is in feedback from the fingertips .
This can be easily shown :
Play some rousing semi-classic or chorus music that can be finger tapped to .Try to tap the fingertips of each hand against the other in time to the music :
a. With your eyes closed
b. With your eyes open
You will notice that you miss more with your eyes open . Your eye-hand system is not properly co-ordinated , and the fingertip sense is better and messed up by the visual input .
Training :
You will notice that eye-ears are coupled because they are on the same head - chassis , which is coupled to the body-platform housing the arms and fingertips .
We simply train each fingertip to know where every other fingertip is , with or without visual input .
This is done not only in the brain but also on local level (ie at the level of fingers , hands ,arms) . This better self-image leads to better performance .
The recipe:
Once again , play some rousing semi-classic or chorus music that can be finger tapped to . Move the head back-and-forth through an arc of about 5 degrees .Try to tap the fingertips of each hand against the other in time to the music .Keep on for at least 10 minutes . You will notice that you rapidly improve . It is because you are using existing brain-body mechanisms .
Stop after 10 minutes and do not try again until after a sleep .
This potentiates long-term memory .
Take some cod-liver oil .The cod-liver oil gives essential fatty acids for memory formation .
Moving the head compensates if you are using a CD , but also integrates the visual system .
Comment :
The first improvement is extremely rapid ( 10 minutes ) and also permanent after the next day .
Then you will wonder why you could not do such a simple thing before . There is no sense of strain .
You are simply relearning things that you should be doing naturally . Further improvement increments are smaller as per law of diminishing returns .
Whether you are playing golf , tennis , hockey , basketball , etc , knowing where your fingertips are relative to your body , or rather ,where your body is relative to your fingertips , is the thing defining athleticism in these sports .
Overtraining:
These are fairly simple neural-networks . If you over-work them , they start to learn minutae .
If your pinkie lifts while drinking tea , stop!
Da Feet ,da feet!
Originally , proto-homonids had the same sensitivity on toes . When they transferred to the ground , a lot of this sensitivity transferred to the soles of the feet for balance . This sensitivity has been quantized (roughly one node per square cm of sole .) Fairly coarse , but sufficient to give enough feedback for normal balance .
But what about abnormal balance ?
Dojo mats for judo and karate (where balance is critical) , uses rough fibres woven to these dimensions .
Old people lose their sense of balance because of degradation of feedback from their soles . Their body-image is not in balance .
Old age sensitization of soles using stimuli on this order is now commercially available .
Sportspersons use them as well .
What to do if you cannot afford a $7000 vibrating sole from Switserland or the US ?
Well , move your feet in a rhythmic pattern . Have a floormat with a knobby surface and dance barefoot on it to the time of the music . The thing is to train the system .
Integrated Training System :
Watch ITARIN (while wearing your glasses) on a computer screen while listening to some rousing beat classical music , while moving your head side-to-side over a about 5 degree arc , while dancing barefoot on a knobbly mat , all the time tapping your fingertips together .
Repeat this three times daily about once every three months .
Apart from looking ridiculous , you will be :
1. Training your eyes for better vision with/without glasses.
2. Integrating your self-image with your visual and auditory system.
3. Improving your balance.
Yes , but what about my hair ?
Your bodyhair defines the envelope of your body .
Note that the most potent , in-your-face , body-to-body , contact warriors the planet has ever seen were the Greek Hoplites . They were scraped clean of all body-hair by strigils . For hairy monkeys , the only real sense of self they could feel was in mano-a-mano combat ,or wrestling . This definition of male beauty is still with us . Ever seen a hairy Greek statue?
As discussed , the invention of soap did a lot to do in the Roman Empire .
So what can you do ? Long ,straggly hairs are markers of old age . ( See previous discussion) . Short chest hairs are a sign of manliness among some cultures . So , cut them .
Males have sort of x-ray vision that can see straggly armpit hairs in females . A sort of subliminal friction and smell effect . Similarly , females can detect smelly old men , even when they are young .
Sigh .
Endit
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Sunspots 2
Sunspots 2
Andre Willers
16 Jan 2008
See discussion in Appendix A on Vukcevic empirical approximations on sunspots.
From this it follows that in the present century , the maximum number of sunspots per 11 year cycle will decrease from 2007 until about 2050 , then rapidly increase again . The insolation will decrease by about 0.1% . This will partially mask CO2 heating .But the major effect will be stagheating . After 2050 , global heating and climate change will take off with a vengeance .
The poles will seem to be heating faster than the equator . (This effect is already seen) This is because CO2 heating is all over (the climate) , but insolation temperatures directly caused by sunlight is proportional to the Cos(degree of latitude) . The insolation also varies with sunspot activity , by about 0.1 %
Weather systems , especially wind-patterns , are driven by relative temperature differences , which are driven by insolation .
With stagheating :
Insolation decreases , but heating due to CO2 increases .
In general , winter wind-patterns persist into summer .
In the southern hemisphere the effect is easily predictable because there are few landmasses . More La Nino’s (not El Nino’s) . The westerly’s move north even in summer . Lots of rain and floods in South Africa , Australia and South America .
The Northern Hemisphere is more difficult because of the land-masses .In general , the rain-belts will move closer to the equator , but with much heavier rain .Think Sahara circa 8 000 BCE . The tropical monsoons will become more unpredictable . India will have one monsoon failure in five . After 2050 it will be more like 4 failures in 5 .
The picture is even bleaker in North America . Cold air from the north (remember relative cold due to reduced insolation) wedges the rainbelts far south . This has happened many times before in America’s history . Ferocious droughts lasting 80 – 150 years have happened , destroying entire civilizations . One such one is underway now . The American south-west has had about 30% normal rainfall for the last 15 years . The Oglalla aquifer is about exhausted . Yet they pump fossil water like tomorrow will never come . Mexico is even worse off .
Tectonic consequences.
Northern Hemisphere :
Expect increased seismic activity in the 6-7 Richter range , with a few big ones .
Arctic ice was about 6 feet above sea-level and locked into the Arctic circle . When this melts , it has to go somewhere . Surprise , surprise . It has to flow south . This is in addition to the normal circular ocean current . All these trillions of extra tons of mass has to be accelerated to the speed of rotation at the equator . The paddle is the Eastern Seaboards of the continents . It is simple physics .
The old , usual currents had dredged channels , but all this new water surges up against the eastern margins of the continents . The regions close to the shore become turbulent and turbid from massive oceanic rivers flooding from the Arctic . Small fish fry cannot survive . Fish species like cod who previously bred in protected estuaries and harbours , now had to move elsewhere . The cod population off the north-eastern Newfoundland coast did not collapse because the scientists got their numbers wrong . It collapsed because their breeding grounds and habitat got washed away . The shore and continental shelf was scoured away . The cod went into the deep ocean (see below)
The stresses on the North American continent are enormous . It has to accelerate millions of tons of extra water mass from zero to about 1500 mph . The stresses gets transmitted to the interior . The North American continent has a major fault : The Mississippi-Missouri valley . In 1812 there were 3 major quakes over 8 on the Richter scale in the Missouri valley . Literally , thousands of square hectares got lifted hundreds of meters . This can be seen now . This area is overdue for a major quake .
New York has the Ramapo fault : an offshoot of the Missouri fault right underneath it.
I draw your attention to two massive spikes in solar activity in 1765 and 1795 . The polar runoff from this probably triggered the Missouri quakes .
Japan and China are not any better off .
Arctic floods are exerting enormous acceleration pressures on the eastern shores of Japan especially . This is an area overdue for a large earthquake .
What about Western Seaboards ?
Disturbance of the big currents will disturb the pressure on unstable areas , probably lessening the force on the land-area . Of special concern are the Canary Islands (land-slides ) and the San Andreas Fault .
The Gulf Stream keeps the western side of the Canary Island pasted to its parent . Relaxing the pressure will probably cause a collapse . Yet it can be used as a power generator . Use the gravitational energy to generate compression steam to power turbines . Turn a lemon into a lemonade . But will this be done ?
What about the Southern Hemisphere?
Cold , dense , deep meltwater from the Antarctic flows northward along the fault-canyons, scouring as it goes . Deepsea fish are forced to the surface (qv) . Huge new pressures are exerted on the sides of the oceanic trenches in the Pacific . The tectonic balances here on the Rim of Fire are fragile . Note that the earthquake that caused the the Dec 2004 Tsunami was preceded by two 8+ quakes deep in the South Pacific . Land masses with extended east coasts next to trenches (ie New Zealand , Eastern Australia , Indonesian archipelago ) are especially vulnerable . Indeed , increased seismic activity in the 6-7 range has already occurred in New Zealand and Indonesia .
Notice the La Nino effect .
What about South Africa ?
Huge plumes of cold , dense water is flowing into the South Indian Ocean . Refer to the recent sightings of icebergs far north (One yacht was nearly capsized by icebergs in Jan 2008 ) . This is occurring on roughly the same latitude as Port Elizabeth . These masses of cold water also has to accelerated to 1500 mph . Even if there is no land directly to the west , there is a domino effect on the currents to the west . The momentum transfer has to come from somewhere
Notice the La Nino effect .
The Aghulas current is squeezed closer to the African continent . Mauritian volcanoes become more active (already happening). Expect more killer waves in the Mozambique channel and off Port Elizabeth and Durban .
Cyclones (hurricanes) will move slightly south , but after 2050 will move far south . Squeezing the aghulas current will have an effect of raising a higher surface water temperature . If it goes over 27 Celsius , expect some really interesting weather in South Eastern Africa .Hurricanes as far south as Cape Aghulas , maybe even Cape Town .
Up to 2050 the Western Cape will have heavy rain , after that it will dry rapidly from the west if the Westerlies are pushed South . There is a probability that the westerlies will be pushed so far south that the tropical convergence will reach as far as Cape Town (ie become a summer rainfall area .)
Cold water from the Antarctic flowing north along the West coast of Africa will have the effect of weakening the Benguella current .
If the combination of cold Antarctic water squeezing the Aghulas current and weaker Benguella Current causes the warmer current to pass Cape Point and flow up the West coast , a different weather pattern will establish itself , especially after 2050 .
The trick:
While the Westerlies won’t blow the moisture ashore , the subtropical convergence will shift to the west .(Over the moist , warm air of the new current-call it the Namib Current ) . Present desert areas will become like the Free State .
Now there is a real-estate opportunity . Buy the Namib desert .
What about South America?
Pressure on the eastern seaboard will probably cause severe seismic activity in Chile . Tristan da Cunha will probably erupt . Submarines in the Falkland trench will have an interesting time of it .
What about fishing?
There’s some good news and some bad news .
The good news is that the fish biomass is increasing nearly exponentially . The fingers of cold , nutrient rich water from the poles are causing mid-oceans blooms . Plankton and krill are washed from the arctics along the nutrient-rich streams stirred up from the sea-bottom , continental shelves and trenches . Oceanic stretches normally deserts are literally exploding with life . Note the decrease in krill population in the Antarctic .They didn’t die or get eaten . They were washed away to warmer , central oceans where they are proliferating . Remember , this is not the first time this has happened . They have gene mechanisms to cope with this fortunate event .
The bad news:
Fishing is only viable commercially because the fish are concentrated on continental shelves . If the fish move off into the vastnesses of the ocean , the frequency of catching even a large fish becomes so low that it becomes uneconomical . Once there is enough nutrients in the ocean , the fish stocks dilute until it is not economical to catch them .
Note the recent invasion of small jellyfish of Ireland’s coastal estuaries .This can be seen as either too much food , or too few predators . Too much food seems to be the answer . There has been no complaints from fishermen about exigent catches , and since they are a vociferous lot , this already tells us a lot . The normal predators of jellyfish already have so much to eat that they cannot be bothered to go after such obstreperous prey .
Humans are on the wrong side of this evolutionary equation . Survivors will breed to populate the oceans . During this episode of global warming , the oceanic biomass will increase , but the biomass usable by humans will decrease . And it does not matter how fine they make their mesh .
Appendix A
The Vukcevic Aproximation .
He made an empirical Fourier series to plot the number of sunspots against time . It does not explain anything (which is why he is unknown) , but does give a good degree of correlation for the period 1813 – 2008 . It gives the 11 year cycle , but also the increase/decrease in the maximum of the number of sunspots per 11 year cycle . We can extrapolate from 2008 until 2100 with a good degree of confidence .
2002 was a maximum .
Thereafter , it generally decreases to 2050 .
Then it increases again to 2088 .
The confidence decreases after this ,
I have sliced and diced it .
There seems to be 530 – 600 years period between Maunder Minima , centering on 1650 AD .
The basic formula is
Y=A * abs[cos*2*pi*(t-T0)/P1 + cos(2*pi/3 + 2*pi*(t-T0/P2) ]
Where
A=100
T0=1941 yrs
P1=19.86 yrs
P2=23.724 yrs
T=terran years
Note that 12*1941= 23 292 = Earth’s precession period .
Why 12 ?
Lunar , of course .
A large moon seems to play even a more important role than we thought .
The resonance coupling would seem to be both gravitational (small) and electromagnetic (large).
Andre Willers
16 Jan 2008
See discussion in Appendix A on Vukcevic empirical approximations on sunspots.
From this it follows that in the present century , the maximum number of sunspots per 11 year cycle will decrease from 2007 until about 2050 , then rapidly increase again . The insolation will decrease by about 0.1% . This will partially mask CO2 heating .But the major effect will be stagheating . After 2050 , global heating and climate change will take off with a vengeance .
The poles will seem to be heating faster than the equator . (This effect is already seen) This is because CO2 heating is all over (the climate) , but insolation temperatures directly caused by sunlight is proportional to the Cos(degree of latitude) . The insolation also varies with sunspot activity , by about 0.1 %
Weather systems , especially wind-patterns , are driven by relative temperature differences , which are driven by insolation .
With stagheating :
Insolation decreases , but heating due to CO2 increases .
In general , winter wind-patterns persist into summer .
In the southern hemisphere the effect is easily predictable because there are few landmasses . More La Nino’s (not El Nino’s) . The westerly’s move north even in summer . Lots of rain and floods in South Africa , Australia and South America .
The Northern Hemisphere is more difficult because of the land-masses .In general , the rain-belts will move closer to the equator , but with much heavier rain .Think Sahara circa 8 000 BCE . The tropical monsoons will become more unpredictable . India will have one monsoon failure in five . After 2050 it will be more like 4 failures in 5 .
The picture is even bleaker in North America . Cold air from the north (remember relative cold due to reduced insolation) wedges the rainbelts far south . This has happened many times before in America’s history . Ferocious droughts lasting 80 – 150 years have happened , destroying entire civilizations . One such one is underway now . The American south-west has had about 30% normal rainfall for the last 15 years . The Oglalla aquifer is about exhausted . Yet they pump fossil water like tomorrow will never come . Mexico is even worse off .
Tectonic consequences.
Northern Hemisphere :
Expect increased seismic activity in the 6-7 Richter range , with a few big ones .
Arctic ice was about 6 feet above sea-level and locked into the Arctic circle . When this melts , it has to go somewhere . Surprise , surprise . It has to flow south . This is in addition to the normal circular ocean current . All these trillions of extra tons of mass has to be accelerated to the speed of rotation at the equator . The paddle is the Eastern Seaboards of the continents . It is simple physics .
The old , usual currents had dredged channels , but all this new water surges up against the eastern margins of the continents . The regions close to the shore become turbulent and turbid from massive oceanic rivers flooding from the Arctic . Small fish fry cannot survive . Fish species like cod who previously bred in protected estuaries and harbours , now had to move elsewhere . The cod population off the north-eastern Newfoundland coast did not collapse because the scientists got their numbers wrong . It collapsed because their breeding grounds and habitat got washed away . The shore and continental shelf was scoured away . The cod went into the deep ocean (see below)
The stresses on the North American continent are enormous . It has to accelerate millions of tons of extra water mass from zero to about 1500 mph . The stresses gets transmitted to the interior . The North American continent has a major fault : The Mississippi-Missouri valley . In 1812 there were 3 major quakes over 8 on the Richter scale in the Missouri valley . Literally , thousands of square hectares got lifted hundreds of meters . This can be seen now . This area is overdue for a major quake .
New York has the Ramapo fault : an offshoot of the Missouri fault right underneath it.
I draw your attention to two massive spikes in solar activity in 1765 and 1795 . The polar runoff from this probably triggered the Missouri quakes .
Japan and China are not any better off .
Arctic floods are exerting enormous acceleration pressures on the eastern shores of Japan especially . This is an area overdue for a large earthquake .
What about Western Seaboards ?
Disturbance of the big currents will disturb the pressure on unstable areas , probably lessening the force on the land-area . Of special concern are the Canary Islands (land-slides ) and the San Andreas Fault .
The Gulf Stream keeps the western side of the Canary Island pasted to its parent . Relaxing the pressure will probably cause a collapse . Yet it can be used as a power generator . Use the gravitational energy to generate compression steam to power turbines . Turn a lemon into a lemonade . But will this be done ?
What about the Southern Hemisphere?
Cold , dense , deep meltwater from the Antarctic flows northward along the fault-canyons, scouring as it goes . Deepsea fish are forced to the surface (qv) . Huge new pressures are exerted on the sides of the oceanic trenches in the Pacific . The tectonic balances here on the Rim of Fire are fragile . Note that the earthquake that caused the the Dec 2004 Tsunami was preceded by two 8+ quakes deep in the South Pacific . Land masses with extended east coasts next to trenches (ie New Zealand , Eastern Australia , Indonesian archipelago ) are especially vulnerable . Indeed , increased seismic activity in the 6-7 range has already occurred in New Zealand and Indonesia .
Notice the La Nino effect .
What about South Africa ?
Huge plumes of cold , dense water is flowing into the South Indian Ocean . Refer to the recent sightings of icebergs far north (One yacht was nearly capsized by icebergs in Jan 2008 ) . This is occurring on roughly the same latitude as Port Elizabeth . These masses of cold water also has to accelerated to 1500 mph . Even if there is no land directly to the west , there is a domino effect on the currents to the west . The momentum transfer has to come from somewhere
Notice the La Nino effect .
The Aghulas current is squeezed closer to the African continent . Mauritian volcanoes become more active (already happening). Expect more killer waves in the Mozambique channel and off Port Elizabeth and Durban .
Cyclones (hurricanes) will move slightly south , but after 2050 will move far south . Squeezing the aghulas current will have an effect of raising a higher surface water temperature . If it goes over 27 Celsius , expect some really interesting weather in South Eastern Africa .Hurricanes as far south as Cape Aghulas , maybe even Cape Town .
Up to 2050 the Western Cape will have heavy rain , after that it will dry rapidly from the west if the Westerlies are pushed South . There is a probability that the westerlies will be pushed so far south that the tropical convergence will reach as far as Cape Town (ie become a summer rainfall area .)
Cold water from the Antarctic flowing north along the West coast of Africa will have the effect of weakening the Benguella current .
If the combination of cold Antarctic water squeezing the Aghulas current and weaker Benguella Current causes the warmer current to pass Cape Point and flow up the West coast , a different weather pattern will establish itself , especially after 2050 .
The trick:
While the Westerlies won’t blow the moisture ashore , the subtropical convergence will shift to the west .(Over the moist , warm air of the new current-call it the Namib Current ) . Present desert areas will become like the Free State .
Now there is a real-estate opportunity . Buy the Namib desert .
What about South America?
Pressure on the eastern seaboard will probably cause severe seismic activity in Chile . Tristan da Cunha will probably erupt . Submarines in the Falkland trench will have an interesting time of it .
What about fishing?
There’s some good news and some bad news .
The good news is that the fish biomass is increasing nearly exponentially . The fingers of cold , nutrient rich water from the poles are causing mid-oceans blooms . Plankton and krill are washed from the arctics along the nutrient-rich streams stirred up from the sea-bottom , continental shelves and trenches . Oceanic stretches normally deserts are literally exploding with life . Note the decrease in krill population in the Antarctic .They didn’t die or get eaten . They were washed away to warmer , central oceans where they are proliferating . Remember , this is not the first time this has happened . They have gene mechanisms to cope with this fortunate event .
The bad news:
Fishing is only viable commercially because the fish are concentrated on continental shelves . If the fish move off into the vastnesses of the ocean , the frequency of catching even a large fish becomes so low that it becomes uneconomical . Once there is enough nutrients in the ocean , the fish stocks dilute until it is not economical to catch them .
Note the recent invasion of small jellyfish of Ireland’s coastal estuaries .This can be seen as either too much food , or too few predators . Too much food seems to be the answer . There has been no complaints from fishermen about exigent catches , and since they are a vociferous lot , this already tells us a lot . The normal predators of jellyfish already have so much to eat that they cannot be bothered to go after such obstreperous prey .
Humans are on the wrong side of this evolutionary equation . Survivors will breed to populate the oceans . During this episode of global warming , the oceanic biomass will increase , but the biomass usable by humans will decrease . And it does not matter how fine they make their mesh .
Appendix A
The Vukcevic Aproximation .
He made an empirical Fourier series to plot the number of sunspots against time . It does not explain anything (which is why he is unknown) , but does give a good degree of correlation for the period 1813 – 2008 . It gives the 11 year cycle , but also the increase/decrease in the maximum of the number of sunspots per 11 year cycle . We can extrapolate from 2008 until 2100 with a good degree of confidence .
2002 was a maximum .
Thereafter , it generally decreases to 2050 .
Then it increases again to 2088 .
The confidence decreases after this ,
I have sliced and diced it .
There seems to be 530 – 600 years period between Maunder Minima , centering on 1650 AD .
The basic formula is
Y=A * abs[cos*2*pi*(t-T0)/P1 + cos(2*pi/3 + 2*pi*(t-T0/P2) ]
Where
A=100
T0=1941 yrs
P1=19.86 yrs
P2=23.724 yrs
T=terran years
Note that 12*1941= 23 292 = Earth’s precession period .
Why 12 ?
Lunar , of course .
A large moon seems to play even a more important role than we thought .
The resonance coupling would seem to be both gravitational (small) and electromagnetic (large).
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Sunspots and Global Warming
Sunspots and Global Warming
Andre Willers
8 Jan 2008
StagHeating .
The evidence strongly suggests that sunspot activity is decreasing at close to the rate of global warming due to CO2 . See articles below . (Wikipedia one)
What does this mean ?
Insolation (sunlight reaching Earth) decreases with the decrease in sunspots . Thus the minimum of sunspot cycle 23 (June 2006) means a lower insolation . This is an immediate effect . The weather is like winter but warmer .
But energy retention increases due to more CO2 . This is the Global Warming Effect . It is slower .
Example : The Effect on the Southern hemisphere in South Africa .
The summer westerly’s of 2007 are not pushed down as far as normal , but there is still an abnormal amount of energy (hence moisture) closer to the equator . The effect is more moisture than normal being underswept by westerly cold fronts moving much further north than usual during summer .
Heating and cooling at the same time , but in different places .The system is stagnant , but heating up . Hence StagHeating . The increase in energy-differential means more violent weather .
Why are the number of sunspots decreasing with increasing Earth temperature ?
(See previous discussions in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com)
Briefly , sunspots are feedback magnetic structures looping out above the corona . As such , the are extremely sensitive to disturbances from magnetic fields of the planets . Jupiter’s effect is noted below , but Earth’s magnetic field can have an even larger effect .
But we are more concerned with fluctuations . Taken that the solar magnetic feedback system known as a sunspot is extremely sensitive (since a large part of the feedback loop occurs outside the sun proper) , even minor perturbations in the magnetic field of Earth can upset sunspot formation . (Plasmas are notoriously hard to corral.) .
So , extra heating of Earth will cause fluctuations in its magnetic field (via Hadley cells in thunderstorms , ionosphere , etc) . This will disrupt sunspot formation until a new solar equilibrium is formed . This will mean a new insolation . etc . A slow oscillation will form .
This effect might seem minuscule , but remember we are talking about feedback loops outside the sun . Small perturbations can have big , non-linear consequences .
Another way in which Gaia regulates temperature .
The rapid heating of Earth 1000 to 1300 AD due to agriculture thus caused the Maunder Minimum , and hence the Little Ice Age . The same is happening now , but there is a lag between the driver effect on Earth and the sunspot activity . Hence the close lagging correlation . We are heading for a Maunder Minimum .
Ho-ho-ho!
Planetocide
Take three planets like Venus , Earth and Mars . If life on them can influence Solar behaviour , they will force optimization of solar behaviour . Only one can win then .
Your favourite Gaia !
The Magnetic Habitability Band .
Any stellar system will also have a very broad magnetic habitability band . If there is a planet or double planet in the center of the band , that is where life will be . The stellar-planetary coupling will inhibit life outside it .
Interventions :
This is absurdly easy .
Even a tunable EM Array from Earth’s surface coupled with a supercomputer now used for nuclear weapon simulations should be able to :
1. Suppress sunspots . Halt global warming for a while .
2. Sunspot laser : zap your neighbour for fun or profit .
3. Solar sails
4. Seti signaling (typically human : champagne tastes and beer income . A typeII civilization can be emulated . )
5. Terraform Luna or Terra .
6. Terraform Mars or Venus .
7. Move asteroids into close Earth orbits .
8. Hell , move Venus to one of Earth-Moon Lagrange points using its extra CO2 as reaction mass and solar lasers as energy . If you do it right , you end up with new habitable planet .
9. If you do it even better , the CO2 from Venus can be streamed to be captured by Mars . This can be used to terraform it in-situ or as reaction mass to move it to another Lagrange point around Earth .
10. Ditto for the moons of the gas giants . Make a Klemperer Rosette .
Maunder Minimum .
There might be a teensy little problem in restarting the extra-solar fires in our favourite sun . There are nearly an infinite number of ways for a sensitive feedback structure like a sunspot to go wrong , and only a few for it to go right . This is how feeble planetary magnetic fields can have an influence .
Thus , we can say that Sol is heading for a Maunder Minimum because of the rapidly changing magnetic fields of Earth are disrupting the extrasolar fusion processes in the magnetic bands on top of the sunspots . These give that 1-2 % extra insolation , but they can also quickly change . None of this waiting for millions of years while a photon struggles from the center of the sun . We want it , and we want it now!
I do not know what a Sun will do with a prolonged period without sunspots , but I suspect it is nothing nice . Massive chaotic outbursts spring to mind . Cepheid variables ?
A healthy star needs life around it . Quite literally .
Analysis of stellar spectra should show healthy stars with a high probability of life around them . Look for a high variability in sunspots .
Andre
Some actual data :
Vukcevic Data Fitting Equation .
http://side.oma.be/index.php3
Interesting datafitting . To be read with theory below and above .
---
From New Scientist:
'Maverick' sunspot heralds new solar cycle
· 19:30 07 January 2008
· NewScientist.com news service
· Maggie McKee
A new 11-year solar cycle has officially begun, now that a sunspot has been found with a magnetic field pointing in the opposite direction from those in the previous cycle. But researchers are still divided over how active – and potentially damaging to Earth's satellites and power grids – the new cycle will be.
Sunspots are relatively cool regions where magnetic fields from within the Sun have risen up and broken through its surface. They vary in number – going from a minimum to a maximum and back to a minimum again – about every 11 years, the same timescale on which the Sun's magnetic poles reverse direction.
But predicting when the cycles will begin and end and how many sunspots they will produce is a tricky business, says David Hathaway of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, US. For example, he had predicted that the new sunspot cycle, cycle 24, would be quite active. Since active cycles usually start earlier than average, he expected the cycle's first sunspot to appear a year ago – but it was only observed on Friday, 4 January.
"I'm happy to see this spot," he told New Scientist late on Friday. "For more than the last year, I come in every morning and look at the pictures from SOHO [the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite] and say, 'No, not yet.' And today, someone beat me into work and said, 'Go take a look – I think there's a spot."
The spot – along with a couple of previous magnetic hints that cycle 24 was underway – suggests the Sun is at or near solar minimum, a time when sunspots in the new cycle outnumber the old.
Just when solar max will occur is up for debate, with some research teams predicting 2011 and others 2012. "The bigger the cycle, the shorter the time it takes to get there," says Hathaway. "A number of us believe it's going to be a big cycle and hence it will peak earlier."
Conveyor belt
The differing predictions come down to how quickly magnetic fields are shuffled around within the Sun, he says.
A model by Mausumi Dikpati of the High Altitude Observatory in Boulder, Colorado, US, and colleagues suggests that the magnetic field remnants of sunspots ride a conveyor-belt like flow of plasma through the Sun.
The flow takes them from the sunspots' appearance at low latitudes to the poles, then drags them to a depth of 200,000 kilometres, where they get stretched out and strengthened before resurfacing at low latitudes. "Once they get strong enough, they rise like balloons or bubbles and where they pop to the surface, they [can] make sunspots," says Hathaway.
"Her model explains a lot of things well," he adds. "In particular, why the sunspot cycle is 11 years as opposed to 7 or 20. In her model, it comes down to how fast that conveyor belt is moving."
Bubbling motions
Because the belt takes so long to move magnetic fields through the Sun, the magnetic fields near the poles at any given time should not be used as an indicator for the following cycle's strength, according to the model. Instead, they feed into the cycle after that. The remnants of sunspots in cycle 23, for example, appear relatively weak at the poles, suggesting that sunspot cycle 25 should be wimpy.
The model predicts that the new cycle, 24, should be quite active, however, generating about 150 sunspots per day near solar max (see Bumper sunspot crop forecast for next solar cycle).
In alternative models, the conveyor belt is not so important for moving magnetic fields through the Sun. In those models, the fields diffuse downwards quickly, "shuffled down by bubbling motions within the Sun", says Hathaway. Those models predict the magnetic fields at the poles should affect the strength of the sunspot cycle that immediately follows. That suggests that the new cycle should be unimpressive, producing just 75 sunspots per day near solar max.
"This cycle will tell us a lot," says Hathaway. "It should discriminate between these models and may even tell us that neither one is right, which would make it even more interesting."
Solar storms
If the new sunspot cycle does turn out to be strong, that could mean trouble for satellites and electrical grids, since they can be disrupted by solar eruptions, called coronal mass ejections, that often accompany sunspots.
But Hathaway says solar observatories such as Japan's Hinode satellite are helping to give scientists a 'heads up' for potentially dangerous solar storms, so that satellite instruments that may be sensitive to blasts of radiation and charged particles can be switched off ahead of time.
"We're far along enough now that we can basically see the signs there's going to be a coronal mass ejection," he says. "It's still a little like predicting tornadoes – a weatherman can look at Doppler radar and winds within a cloud and say it's apt to produce a tornado. But [whether it will produce one] here, at this time – they still can't do that."
He says tracking the number of sunspots that appear from now until mid-2009 should settle the question of when solar max will occur – the sunspot number ought to rise quickly if it's an active cycle.
The following is from from Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot
However, the surrounding areas are brighter and the overall effect is that more sunspots means a brighter sun. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, of the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W m-2 compared to 1366 W m-2 for the average solar constant)[3][4]. This range is slightly smaller than the change in radiative forcing caused by the increase in atmospheric CO2 since the 18th century[5]. During the Maunder Minimum in the 17th Century there were hardly any sunspots at all. This coincides with a period of cooling known as the Little Ice Age. It has been speculated that there may be a resonant gravitational link between a photospheric tidal force from the planets, the dominant component by summing gravitational tidal force (75%) being Jupiter's with an 11 year cycle[6].
---
Jupiter's influence
· 20 March 2004 New Scientist
While the work of Mausumi Dikpati suggests that meridional flows in the sun's convective layer may allow us to forecast sunspot activity (6 March, p 38), other forces may also be at work. In particular, the giant planets in the solar system may play a role through the gravitational pull they exert on the massive amount of fluid flowing in the outer layer of the sun.
Curiously, this gravitational force can be expressed as a Fourier series whose most important terms have interesting periodicities: one of these coincides with the 11-year cycle of the sunspots. What we may be seeing, therefore, is the direct influence of planetary tidal forces and their effects on the stability of the magnetic loops created in the meridional flows in the sun's convective layer. These forces could be a major factor in the cycle of magnetic loops believed to create the sunspots.
Jupiter is the largest contributor to the solar plasma tides. It may eventually transpire that its influence contributes to our climate.
From issue 2439 of New Scientist magazine, 20 March 2004, page 32
---
Andre Willers
8 Jan 2008
StagHeating .
The evidence strongly suggests that sunspot activity is decreasing at close to the rate of global warming due to CO2 . See articles below . (Wikipedia one)
What does this mean ?
Insolation (sunlight reaching Earth) decreases with the decrease in sunspots . Thus the minimum of sunspot cycle 23 (June 2006) means a lower insolation . This is an immediate effect . The weather is like winter but warmer .
But energy retention increases due to more CO2 . This is the Global Warming Effect . It is slower .
Example : The Effect on the Southern hemisphere in South Africa .
The summer westerly’s of 2007 are not pushed down as far as normal , but there is still an abnormal amount of energy (hence moisture) closer to the equator . The effect is more moisture than normal being underswept by westerly cold fronts moving much further north than usual during summer .
Heating and cooling at the same time , but in different places .The system is stagnant , but heating up . Hence StagHeating . The increase in energy-differential means more violent weather .
Why are the number of sunspots decreasing with increasing Earth temperature ?
(See previous discussions in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com)
Briefly , sunspots are feedback magnetic structures looping out above the corona . As such , the are extremely sensitive to disturbances from magnetic fields of the planets . Jupiter’s effect is noted below , but Earth’s magnetic field can have an even larger effect .
But we are more concerned with fluctuations . Taken that the solar magnetic feedback system known as a sunspot is extremely sensitive (since a large part of the feedback loop occurs outside the sun proper) , even minor perturbations in the magnetic field of Earth can upset sunspot formation . (Plasmas are notoriously hard to corral.) .
So , extra heating of Earth will cause fluctuations in its magnetic field (via Hadley cells in thunderstorms , ionosphere , etc) . This will disrupt sunspot formation until a new solar equilibrium is formed . This will mean a new insolation . etc . A slow oscillation will form .
This effect might seem minuscule , but remember we are talking about feedback loops outside the sun . Small perturbations can have big , non-linear consequences .
Another way in which Gaia regulates temperature .
The rapid heating of Earth 1000 to 1300 AD due to agriculture thus caused the Maunder Minimum , and hence the Little Ice Age . The same is happening now , but there is a lag between the driver effect on Earth and the sunspot activity . Hence the close lagging correlation . We are heading for a Maunder Minimum .
Ho-ho-ho!
Planetocide
Take three planets like Venus , Earth and Mars . If life on them can influence Solar behaviour , they will force optimization of solar behaviour . Only one can win then .
Your favourite Gaia !
The Magnetic Habitability Band .
Any stellar system will also have a very broad magnetic habitability band . If there is a planet or double planet in the center of the band , that is where life will be . The stellar-planetary coupling will inhibit life outside it .
Interventions :
This is absurdly easy .
Even a tunable EM Array from Earth’s surface coupled with a supercomputer now used for nuclear weapon simulations should be able to :
1. Suppress sunspots . Halt global warming for a while .
2. Sunspot laser : zap your neighbour for fun or profit .
3. Solar sails
4. Seti signaling (typically human : champagne tastes and beer income . A typeII civilization can be emulated . )
5. Terraform Luna or Terra .
6. Terraform Mars or Venus .
7. Move asteroids into close Earth orbits .
8. Hell , move Venus to one of Earth-Moon Lagrange points using its extra CO2 as reaction mass and solar lasers as energy . If you do it right , you end up with new habitable planet .
9. If you do it even better , the CO2 from Venus can be streamed to be captured by Mars . This can be used to terraform it in-situ or as reaction mass to move it to another Lagrange point around Earth .
10. Ditto for the moons of the gas giants . Make a Klemperer Rosette .
Maunder Minimum .
There might be a teensy little problem in restarting the extra-solar fires in our favourite sun . There are nearly an infinite number of ways for a sensitive feedback structure like a sunspot to go wrong , and only a few for it to go right . This is how feeble planetary magnetic fields can have an influence .
Thus , we can say that Sol is heading for a Maunder Minimum because of the rapidly changing magnetic fields of Earth are disrupting the extrasolar fusion processes in the magnetic bands on top of the sunspots . These give that 1-2 % extra insolation , but they can also quickly change . None of this waiting for millions of years while a photon struggles from the center of the sun . We want it , and we want it now!
I do not know what a Sun will do with a prolonged period without sunspots , but I suspect it is nothing nice . Massive chaotic outbursts spring to mind . Cepheid variables ?
A healthy star needs life around it . Quite literally .
Analysis of stellar spectra should show healthy stars with a high probability of life around them . Look for a high variability in sunspots .
Andre
Some actual data :
Vukcevic Data Fitting Equation .
http://side.oma.be/index.php3
Interesting datafitting . To be read with theory below and above .
---
From New Scientist:
'Maverick' sunspot heralds new solar cycle
· 19:30 07 January 2008
· NewScientist.com news service
· Maggie McKee
A new 11-year solar cycle has officially begun, now that a sunspot has been found with a magnetic field pointing in the opposite direction from those in the previous cycle. But researchers are still divided over how active – and potentially damaging to Earth's satellites and power grids – the new cycle will be.
Sunspots are relatively cool regions where magnetic fields from within the Sun have risen up and broken through its surface. They vary in number – going from a minimum to a maximum and back to a minimum again – about every 11 years, the same timescale on which the Sun's magnetic poles reverse direction.
But predicting when the cycles will begin and end and how many sunspots they will produce is a tricky business, says David Hathaway of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, US. For example, he had predicted that the new sunspot cycle, cycle 24, would be quite active. Since active cycles usually start earlier than average, he expected the cycle's first sunspot to appear a year ago – but it was only observed on Friday, 4 January.
"I'm happy to see this spot," he told New Scientist late on Friday. "For more than the last year, I come in every morning and look at the pictures from SOHO [the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite] and say, 'No, not yet.' And today, someone beat me into work and said, 'Go take a look – I think there's a spot."
The spot – along with a couple of previous magnetic hints that cycle 24 was underway – suggests the Sun is at or near solar minimum, a time when sunspots in the new cycle outnumber the old.
Just when solar max will occur is up for debate, with some research teams predicting 2011 and others 2012. "The bigger the cycle, the shorter the time it takes to get there," says Hathaway. "A number of us believe it's going to be a big cycle and hence it will peak earlier."
Conveyor belt
The differing predictions come down to how quickly magnetic fields are shuffled around within the Sun, he says.
A model by Mausumi Dikpati of the High Altitude Observatory in Boulder, Colorado, US, and colleagues suggests that the magnetic field remnants of sunspots ride a conveyor-belt like flow of plasma through the Sun.
The flow takes them from the sunspots' appearance at low latitudes to the poles, then drags them to a depth of 200,000 kilometres, where they get stretched out and strengthened before resurfacing at low latitudes. "Once they get strong enough, they rise like balloons or bubbles and where they pop to the surface, they [can] make sunspots," says Hathaway.
"Her model explains a lot of things well," he adds. "In particular, why the sunspot cycle is 11 years as opposed to 7 or 20. In her model, it comes down to how fast that conveyor belt is moving."
Bubbling motions
Because the belt takes so long to move magnetic fields through the Sun, the magnetic fields near the poles at any given time should not be used as an indicator for the following cycle's strength, according to the model. Instead, they feed into the cycle after that. The remnants of sunspots in cycle 23, for example, appear relatively weak at the poles, suggesting that sunspot cycle 25 should be wimpy.
The model predicts that the new cycle, 24, should be quite active, however, generating about 150 sunspots per day near solar max (see Bumper sunspot crop forecast for next solar cycle).
In alternative models, the conveyor belt is not so important for moving magnetic fields through the Sun. In those models, the fields diffuse downwards quickly, "shuffled down by bubbling motions within the Sun", says Hathaway. Those models predict the magnetic fields at the poles should affect the strength of the sunspot cycle that immediately follows. That suggests that the new cycle should be unimpressive, producing just 75 sunspots per day near solar max.
"This cycle will tell us a lot," says Hathaway. "It should discriminate between these models and may even tell us that neither one is right, which would make it even more interesting."
Solar storms
If the new sunspot cycle does turn out to be strong, that could mean trouble for satellites and electrical grids, since they can be disrupted by solar eruptions, called coronal mass ejections, that often accompany sunspots.
But Hathaway says solar observatories such as Japan's Hinode satellite are helping to give scientists a 'heads up' for potentially dangerous solar storms, so that satellite instruments that may be sensitive to blasts of radiation and charged particles can be switched off ahead of time.
"We're far along enough now that we can basically see the signs there's going to be a coronal mass ejection," he says. "It's still a little like predicting tornadoes – a weatherman can look at Doppler radar and winds within a cloud and say it's apt to produce a tornado. But [whether it will produce one] here, at this time – they still can't do that."
He says tracking the number of sunspots that appear from now until mid-2009 should settle the question of when solar max will occur – the sunspot number ought to rise quickly if it's an active cycle.
The following is from from Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot
However, the surrounding areas are brighter and the overall effect is that more sunspots means a brighter sun. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, of the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W m-2 compared to 1366 W m-2 for the average solar constant)[3][4]. This range is slightly smaller than the change in radiative forcing caused by the increase in atmospheric CO2 since the 18th century[5]. During the Maunder Minimum in the 17th Century there were hardly any sunspots at all. This coincides with a period of cooling known as the Little Ice Age. It has been speculated that there may be a resonant gravitational link between a photospheric tidal force from the planets, the dominant component by summing gravitational tidal force (75%) being Jupiter's with an 11 year cycle[6].
---
Jupiter's influence
· 20 March 2004 New Scientist
While the work of Mausumi Dikpati suggests that meridional flows in the sun's convective layer may allow us to forecast sunspot activity (6 March, p 38), other forces may also be at work. In particular, the giant planets in the solar system may play a role through the gravitational pull they exert on the massive amount of fluid flowing in the outer layer of the sun.
Curiously, this gravitational force can be expressed as a Fourier series whose most important terms have interesting periodicities: one of these coincides with the 11-year cycle of the sunspots. What we may be seeing, therefore, is the direct influence of planetary tidal forces and their effects on the stability of the magnetic loops created in the meridional flows in the sun's convective layer. These forces could be a major factor in the cycle of magnetic loops believed to create the sunspots.
Jupiter is the largest contributor to the solar plasma tides. It may eventually transpire that its influence contributes to our climate.
From issue 2439 of New Scientist magazine, 20 March 2004, page 32
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Saturday, January 05, 2008
Infinite Probes in Optimization
Infinite Probes in Optimization .
Andre Willers
5 Jan 2008
Definitions:
n! = n*(n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)*…*1
The Euclidean Constant e .
e = (1/1! + 1/2! + 1/3!+ 1/4!… )
=2.178…
I will make it as simple as possible using costs and temporal sequences as examples .
Assume that the elements of a system are identifiable and repetitive .
The rules of Arithmetic can then be applied .
Take any such system . By definition it can then be subdivided indefinitely . Each subdivision of r elements can have r! possible permutations (or states) .
Let there be a CostReserve to cover unknown costs in the failure of any element in a group .
Key Assumption
Let at least one element of each r be Aristotelian False (ie a failure cost item)
The Total cost of failure will be the sum of the cost of failures of the elements.
(ReserveCost) *( (1/1! + 1/2! + 1/3!+ 1/4!… ))= (TotalCost)
Your Reserve times the sum of individual failures = total
This defines the boundary .
This is the optimization equation .
This is equal to
ReserveCost / TotalCost = 1/e ~ 0.37
This means that you should not consider an endeavour where the rate of return is less than 37% . This is the long-term break-even point from a probabilistic viewpoint .
This equation is independent of space or time .
Any society (any at all ) that does not deliver 37%+ returns gets zapped by the chaotic downturns .
Since vested interests always decrease rates of returns , empires rise and fall .
The probe can be used in any infinite series , but care has to be taken to define the terms .
An Interesting corollary :
The alert reader would have noticed that the above is true for when there is always at least one false item per group .
What if there is at least one true item per group ? This is approached as follows:
In trading systems , individual items can be identified . The cost of failure in an individual item is then = 1/ (r!/r) = 1/ (r-1)!
The summation is then
(ReserveCost/Item)*(1*1/1! + 2*1/2! + 3*1/3!+ 4*1/4!… ))= (TotalCost)
(ReserveCost/Item)*(1 + 1 + 1/2!+ 1/3!… ))= (TotalCost)
(ReserveCost/Item) / (TotalCost) = 1/(1+e) ~ 0.27
As can be seen , trading systems will survive the collapse of empires . There is a whole 10% difference favouring traders . Recovery systems will then also favor traders .
This is the underlying reason why Stalinistic Communism failed and Chinese went trader . The VOC and East India Co . are good examples .
Ten percent is just too much .
Ho-ho-ho !
The average between 0.37 and 0.27 is roughly 0.33 . A third .Can you see where this is relevant in any infinite situation where uncertainty rules?
Non-Failure Ratio
A non-failure ratio of (1- 1/3) ~2/3 summated over infinity = (2/3) / (1-2/3) =2 .
This means that any system that can be described or broken up into smaller groups is strongly ordered . Successful subgroups survive by a factor of 2 . This is built into the mathematics of the Universe . Life is one such sub-group , so are particles ,etc . Negative entropy is the rule . Life is everywhere . Positive entropy only holds in the most primitive and earliest systems .
Beautiful!
Quantum and non-quantum systems are the same .
Singularity Points.
27% and 37% are singularity points , as are (100-27)=63% and 53% . SocioEconomic systems destabilize at these points . Regardless whether they are human , alien , japanese , chinese or any other sort of ese .
Any society where more than a third of productive enterprise is spent without engendering new wealth creation is doomed .
Tax rates of more than 27% reduce trade . Tax rates between 27% and 37% will let it limp along . Tax rates over 37% is a disaster waiting to happen . It is that simple , and no amount of pontificating will change the realities of economics .
The tax rate anchored between 0% and 27% will follow a catenary . The optimal will be halfway (12.5%) . This would be the optimal VAT rate . Note that deviations from this (up or down) leads to social unrest . The unrest is not linear , but catenary . In other words , it gets rapidly worse as it approaches the anchor points of 0 or 27 % . This is true of any civilization , human or alien . It is inherent in the mathematics .
These are absolute rates , not relative .
The RepoRate .
The tax on new money . If the reporate plus profits stay away from the singularity points (27% , 37%) there is no problem.
What about undefined realities ? Refer to
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Topos:
Note in the definitions above , that as groups are divided by n , and n->infinity , the system approaches undefined “thingies” . Hence , it can be used as a probe into undefined realms .
Marriage:
An interesting corollary is optimizing pairings of two . The theory above says that random pairing will lead to a failure rate of 37% . Observation seems to bear this out .
To optimize : Note and keep track the best features of the first 37/100 daters , then seriously consider the first anybody after that who equals or better the standards of the first 37
This optimizes your chances .
This result has been independently reached in games theory
Note that your body is independently doing this sort of infinite analysis . Hence speed dating , cocktail parties , mingling , etc .
A good algorithm is to speed date at least 50 persons . Do not do this if you cannot handle rejection , since this concentrates years of normal rejection into a few weeks .
A therapeutic mechanism? Sects use this whipsaw mechanism of rejection (by the outside world) and warm acceptance by the sect to create mini-societies .
Hence cold-canvassing . Rejection binds them closer . Any converts are a bonus . Most real converts are made by on-on-one contact .
But that is also the definition of most successful families .
If you are stupid and ugly , and can handle speed dating , you are a better man than I am , Human .
Virtual speed dating .
Analogous to cures for fear of heights , fear of confined spaces , etc . Considerable success has been achieved in reprogramming the amygdala for these and related phobias using virtual reality .
A Virtual Rejection website will make money .
That’s OK if somebody learns from it .
Another way for actresses or avatars to make money .
“I was rejected 1000 times by Lara”
“Balls rejected by Lara TombRaider as not dusty enough.”
The mind boggles .
Andre
Andre Willers
5 Jan 2008
Definitions:
n! = n*(n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)*…*1
The Euclidean Constant e .
e = (1/1! + 1/2! + 1/3!+ 1/4!… )
=2.178…
I will make it as simple as possible using costs and temporal sequences as examples .
Assume that the elements of a system are identifiable and repetitive .
The rules of Arithmetic can then be applied .
Take any such system . By definition it can then be subdivided indefinitely . Each subdivision of r elements can have r! possible permutations (or states) .
Let there be a CostReserve to cover unknown costs in the failure of any element in a group .
Key Assumption
Let at least one element of each r be Aristotelian False (ie a failure cost item)
The Total cost of failure will be the sum of the cost of failures of the elements.
(ReserveCost) *( (1/1! + 1/2! + 1/3!+ 1/4!… ))= (TotalCost)
Your Reserve times the sum of individual failures = total
This defines the boundary .
This is the optimization equation .
This is equal to
ReserveCost / TotalCost = 1/e ~ 0.37
This means that you should not consider an endeavour where the rate of return is less than 37% . This is the long-term break-even point from a probabilistic viewpoint .
This equation is independent of space or time .
Any society (any at all ) that does not deliver 37%+ returns gets zapped by the chaotic downturns .
Since vested interests always decrease rates of returns , empires rise and fall .
The probe can be used in any infinite series , but care has to be taken to define the terms .
An Interesting corollary :
The alert reader would have noticed that the above is true for when there is always at least one false item per group .
What if there is at least one true item per group ? This is approached as follows:
In trading systems , individual items can be identified . The cost of failure in an individual item is then = 1/ (r!/r) = 1/ (r-1)!
The summation is then
(ReserveCost/Item)*(1*1/1! + 2*1/2! + 3*1/3!+ 4*1/4!… ))= (TotalCost)
(ReserveCost/Item)*(1 + 1 + 1/2!+ 1/3!… ))= (TotalCost)
(ReserveCost/Item) / (TotalCost) = 1/(1+e) ~ 0.27
As can be seen , trading systems will survive the collapse of empires . There is a whole 10% difference favouring traders . Recovery systems will then also favor traders .
This is the underlying reason why Stalinistic Communism failed and Chinese went trader . The VOC and East India Co . are good examples .
Ten percent is just too much .
Ho-ho-ho !
The average between 0.37 and 0.27 is roughly 0.33 . A third .Can you see where this is relevant in any infinite situation where uncertainty rules?
Non-Failure Ratio
A non-failure ratio of (1- 1/3) ~2/3 summated over infinity = (2/3) / (1-2/3) =2 .
This means that any system that can be described or broken up into smaller groups is strongly ordered . Successful subgroups survive by a factor of 2 . This is built into the mathematics of the Universe . Life is one such sub-group , so are particles ,etc . Negative entropy is the rule . Life is everywhere . Positive entropy only holds in the most primitive and earliest systems .
Beautiful!
Quantum and non-quantum systems are the same .
Singularity Points.
27% and 37% are singularity points , as are (100-27)=63% and 53% . SocioEconomic systems destabilize at these points . Regardless whether they are human , alien , japanese , chinese or any other sort of ese .
Any society where more than a third of productive enterprise is spent without engendering new wealth creation is doomed .
Tax rates of more than 27% reduce trade . Tax rates between 27% and 37% will let it limp along . Tax rates over 37% is a disaster waiting to happen . It is that simple , and no amount of pontificating will change the realities of economics .
The tax rate anchored between 0% and 27% will follow a catenary . The optimal will be halfway (12.5%) . This would be the optimal VAT rate . Note that deviations from this (up or down) leads to social unrest . The unrest is not linear , but catenary . In other words , it gets rapidly worse as it approaches the anchor points of 0 or 27 % . This is true of any civilization , human or alien . It is inherent in the mathematics .
These are absolute rates , not relative .
The RepoRate .
The tax on new money . If the reporate plus profits stay away from the singularity points (27% , 37%) there is no problem.
What about undefined realities ? Refer to
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Topos:
Note in the definitions above , that as groups are divided by n , and n->infinity , the system approaches undefined “thingies” . Hence , it can be used as a probe into undefined realms .
Marriage:
An interesting corollary is optimizing pairings of two . The theory above says that random pairing will lead to a failure rate of 37% . Observation seems to bear this out .
To optimize : Note and keep track the best features of the first 37/100 daters , then seriously consider the first anybody after that who equals or better the standards of the first 37
This optimizes your chances .
This result has been independently reached in games theory
Note that your body is independently doing this sort of infinite analysis . Hence speed dating , cocktail parties , mingling , etc .
A good algorithm is to speed date at least 50 persons . Do not do this if you cannot handle rejection , since this concentrates years of normal rejection into a few weeks .
A therapeutic mechanism? Sects use this whipsaw mechanism of rejection (by the outside world) and warm acceptance by the sect to create mini-societies .
Hence cold-canvassing . Rejection binds them closer . Any converts are a bonus . Most real converts are made by on-on-one contact .
But that is also the definition of most successful families .
If you are stupid and ugly , and can handle speed dating , you are a better man than I am , Human .
Virtual speed dating .
Analogous to cures for fear of heights , fear of confined spaces , etc . Considerable success has been achieved in reprogramming the amygdala for these and related phobias using virtual reality .
A Virtual Rejection website will make money .
That’s OK if somebody learns from it .
Another way for actresses or avatars to make money .
“I was rejected 1000 times by Lara”
“Balls rejected by Lara TombRaider as not dusty enough.”
The mind boggles .
Andre
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