Eis tin polin – Istanbul .
Andre Willers
27 May 2009
What's in a name ?
From the New York Times:
Linguistic Reflections
Published: Sunday, August 11, 1991
To the Editor:
In his review of "Turkish Reflections" by Mary Lee Settle (July 14), Roderick Conway Morris is only partly right when he says that the Greeks who lived in Constantinople were calling the city Istanbul "at least a hundred years before the [ Turkish ] conquest."
"Istanbul," as Mr. Morris notes, is a contracted form of eis tin polin, which in Greek means "in the city" or "to the city." The Greeks, however, never referred to Constantinople (Constantine's polis, or city) as Istanbul. They simply called it i polis, not unlike New Yorkers referring to Manhattan as "the city."
If the people of Constantinople were in the city or going to it, then they said eis tin polin. Since Greek nouns and place names are declined, the Greeks would never use the dative case ( eis tin polin ) when "the city" ( i polis ) was the subject of the sentence. Eis tin polin is a prepositional phrase and would only be used as such, not as the name of the city. That would be the equivalent in English of saying "to Albany" (or "in Albany") is the capital of New York. EVANTHIA ALLEN White Plains
From http://www.agiasophia.com/constantinople.html
Milestones in the History of Hellenism in Constantinople
· 658 BC Greek colonists from Megara establish on the coast of Keratia bay a new city named Byzantium in honor of its founder Byzantas.
· 324 AD The city of Byzantium, initially as "New Rome" and later as "Constantinople", becomes the capital of the eastern segment of the Roman Empire. As capital of the Byzantine Empire, Constantinople was for eleven centuries one of the most important political, military, religious and cultural centers of Anatolia, a fact which explains its reputation as the "Queen of Cities".
· 1204 Impregnable since the times of Constantine the Great, the Byzantine capital is conquered in the spring of 1204 by the soldiers of the Fourth Crusade. The three days of plunder and violence which followed the conquest, destroyed a large portion of the city, which was not able to restore its original brilliance even after the restorations of the Byzantine emperors in 1261.
· 1453 After five centuries of resistance to the campaigns of the turkish tribes of Anatolia, Constantinople finally falls in the hands of the Ottoman Turks. Muhamed the Pillager, recognizing the Patriarch of Constantinople as a political and religious leader of all orthodox citizens within the limits of the Ottoman Empire, grants him a series of priviledges in order to ensure the orderly survival of his followers under the ottoman rule. One of the names given to Constantinople by the new conquerors is "Istanbul", a linguistic corruption of the greek phrase "eis tin polin" meaning "to the city".
· 1821 With the support of the Great Powers of that time, the revolution of Greeks in mainland Greece against the Ottoman Empire results in the creation of the independent Greek state (1830). Patriarch Gregorios V is hung at the gate of the Patriarchate in Fanari (Constantinople) as accountable to the sultanate for the rebellion of his flock; the gate has since remained shut as a symbol of mourning. Several other leading figures of the church and society also lost their lives along with the Patriarch, and orthodox churches in Constantinople were set on fire.
· 1839 to 1856 In the framework of the great reforms of the 19th century which were aimed at curtailing the rapid decline of the empire, efforts were made to improve the status of minorities, an event which allowed them to rapidly flourish in the economic and cultural arenas.
· 1914 At the verge of the First World War, the hellenic community of Constantinople is living the last days of its golden age. According to ottoman archives, the non-muslim population of the city account for almost half of a population of approximately 900,000. The great majority of the non-muslim population is comprised of the Greeks, followed by the Jews, Armenians and few Europeans. Although the Turks represent the majority of the population, it is the extensive commercial, industrial, economic activities and international cultural ties of the minorities which give Constantinople its cosmopolitan prestige of that era.
· 1918 to 1920 After its defeat along with the Central Powers in the First World War and the Peace Treaty of Moudros, the Ottoman Empire is divided between the allies of the Entente into spheres of influence, with Constantinople coming under International Control. As part of the allied occupation forces, Greek warships are positioned in the lower Bosphorus, while a Greek military delegation is stationed in Constantinople.
· 1919 Greece, under the leadership of Venizelos, lands a military force on Smyrna in May. This is the start of the Asia Minor Campaign, which three years later will result in the decline of the front and the dramatic retreat of Hellenism from Anatolia.
· 1922 The news of the destruction of Smyrna raises panic in the hellenic community of Constantinople. Fearing Turkish reprisals, many Greeks who had openly sided with the allied occupation, start the long road to become premature refugees. It is estimated that only in the period from October to December 1922, 50,000 non-muslims fled from Constantinople. Almost all of them headed to Greece.
· 1923 The Treaty of Lausanne defines the compulsory population exchange between Turkey and Greece. The Greeks of Constantinople, Imvros and Tenedos, and the muslims of Western Thrace are the only populations to be excluded from the exchange. Despite the International reassurances regarding the safety of their lives and property, a large number of Greeks abandons Constantinople for Greece, to the extent that by March 1923 the Patriarchate estimated that "the remaining Greek community in Constantinople is about 250,000 while about 150,000 have left".
· 1930 The Accord of Greek-Turkish Friendship is signed in Ankara between Venizelos and Inonu. On the one hand, the normalization of the relations between the two countries allows the improvement of their respective minorities, yet on the other hand, isolated nationalist elements in Turkey (such as the "Vatandas Turkce konus" or "citizen of Constantinople, speak in Turkish!") apply assimilation pressures. By 1935, the Turkish census for Constantinople accounts the Greek orthodox community at 125,046.
· 1942 to 1943 In the midst of the Second World War, Turkey passes the "property tax" or "varlik", with the intention of improving the government's finances and curtailing the black market which flourished due to the war. The level of taxation with respect to total capital was 232% for the Armenians, 184% for the Jews, 159% for the Greeks, yet only a mere 4.9% for the Turks. Although they only accounted for 0.55% of the national population, the Greeks of Constantinople were thus held accountable for 20% of its taxes. The inability to meet these extreme levels of taxation resulted in the closure of dozens of businesses and their transfer together with considerable land and housing to Turkish hands in exchange for degrading amounts of monetary compensation. The minorities, which even after liquidating all their property still owed taxes to the government, were transfered to the depths of Anatolia for slave labor at government projects under very adverse conditions.
· 1955 The night of the 6th to 7th of Spetember, the Turkish mobs were let loose in the streets of greek neighbourhoods in an orchestrated orgy of violence and plunder. Over 4,000 Greek businesses were ruined, more than 2,000 homes burgled, churches and schools were incinerated, and cemeteries desecrated. While the Turkish government admitted a toll of 3 dead and 40 wounded, later reports raised the actual figure to 15 deaths. The Worldwide Council of Churches estimated the damages at $150 million, although other sources raise the value at $ 300 million. In the aftermath of these events, a new wave of Constantinopolitans abandons their homes in search of safe haven.
· 1964 In March, the Turkish government responds to the escalation of tensions in Cyprus by deporting the Greeks of Constantinople as "dangerous to the internal and external security of Turkey". At the same time, Turkey freezes their properties and bank accounts. By September of 1965, the number of deportees, without including their accompanying family members, reached 6,000. According to official population statistics, in 1965 the orthodox christians in Turkey amounted to 76,122 (from 106,611 in 1960).
· 1974 The Turkish invasion of Cyprus revives the climate of fear and insecurity for the Greek community of Constantinople. In the months following the invasion, hundereds of Constantinopolitans head for Greece.
· 1974 to 1995 The members of the Greek minority are constantly decreasing. In the summer of 1993, the estimated size of the Greek community in Constantinople was around 2,000. Today, due to the advanced age of these few remaining Constantinopolitans, the Greek community is likely to be even smaller.
Note from the Translator: As set forth by the Treaty of Lausanne, the counterpart to the Greek minority in Turkey, namely the muslim minority in Thrace, has been allowed by the government of Greece to flourish to approximately 140,000...
Translated by Leandros Arvanitakis from Margarita Poutouridou's text in Kostas Sakellariou's photo album "Oi Teleytaioi Ellnves tns Polns" (The Last Greeks of Constantinople), AGRA publishers, Athens, Greece, 1995. Many of the figures regarding the Greek minority in the later years have been taken from Alexes Alexandris' book, "The Greek Minority of Istanbul and Greek-Turkish Relations, 1918 to 1974", Center for Asia Minor Studies, Greece, 1992.
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Discussion :
1.Why did Constantine I choose Byzantium as an alternate capital ?
It was a sleepy fishing village in 324 AD .
Because it did not have earthquake damage . It lies on a relatively stable part of the European plate northwest of the North-Anatolian Fault .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Istanbul Earthquake 2009"
Note that Constantinople did not suffer significant earthquake damage in the 1 700 years following . Compared to (say ) Ephesus .
He modestly renamed it after himself .
But it was too big a mouthful (too many phonemes) . So it became simply "The City" . This morphed to "eis tin polin"
In the vernacular there was only one City .
Why did this not happen to Rome ? ("All roads lead to Rome") . Because Roma is short and sweet . And "Ad Roma" does not sound as strong . At a deep level , Rome was still acknowledged as THE city .
2.The Library .
The Constantinople Library held many original manuscripts from the Greek , Roman , Alexandrian and Middle Eastern cities . Many would be dynamite to any of the established religions . (The nitty-gritty about the Council of Nicea , original testimonies by the Apostles , the Arian heresy , the only surviving records of the large Christian community in Asia (destroyed in the aftermath of the Mongols) , etc , etc)
Eyeglasses .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Salvino Armolo D'Armati :The most influential human in the last thousand years"
He invented spectacles around 1300 AD . These then spread like wildfire around the Mediterranean . Including Constantinople . The caretakers realized that they probably could not survive much longer (circa 1346-1348) ,when the Black Death caused a major shrinkage in population , with no hope of replenishment .(See http:andreswhy.blogspot.com "Fractal Collapse of Societies")
So they frantically started copying and disseminating . Using anybody who could see using the new glasses . To quote History Today (Nov 2008 p40) : "Ancient texts were studied , meticulously edited and commented on by large numbers of intellectuals , who enjoyed patronage."
But the originals ?
Where could they find a safe haven ?
Especially the politically sensitive ones .
They were obviously aware of their value , but the last persons they would like to have them were the Moslems .
Venice , France , Normans were out after the Fourth Crusade (Sack of Constantinople 1204) .
Likewise any Western Roman Catholic Country .
This leaves the north .
John VIII (Paleologus) must have tried a last effort at the Council of Ferrara-Florence in 1438 AD .
There he met and made an alliance with Albrecht II , the Emperor of the Holy Roman Empire . (The Austrian-Swiss version) .
He was on the skids , but strong enough to protect the Library , but not aligned with the Vatican , France or Venice .
Mar 18, 1438 - It was in the midst of these troubles that the electors met at Frankfurt to choose a new Emperor, but Albrecht's claims were so predominant that on the 18th of March, 1438, he was unanimously requested to take the helm of state. Thus after a lapse of 130 years we had a Hapsburg Emperor . A role they played for the next 500 years .
These documents have been used for leverage for half a millennium , but their location has been forgotten as the inheritors died off because of inbreeding .
The original documents seems to have been securely sealed in containers (amphorae) and sent northwards by ship over the Black Sea .
So , the most likely scenario is that a large part of the Constantinople Library is still sealed up in the original containers in the original Hapsburg Castle . ( Enough scholars would have survived to indicate the sensitive documents . The others would have had no interest to a medieval lord , but he would have kept them secure . Buried in a deep dungeon .)
A real treasure , much more valuable than gold .
Museums and Foundations would pay literally billions of US dollars for these documents .
It is doubtful if any sensitive documents would have been kept here .
But the rest : the lost works of Euripides , Plato , Socrates , etc .
The location is Castle Habichtsburg , Brugg , Switzerland .
(Look for Greek amphorae using earth-sounding sonar or radar) .
Gnomically yours ,
Andre
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Monday, May 25, 2009
Fractal Collapse of Societies.
Fractal Collapse of Societies.
Andre Willers
25 May 2009
Synopsis:
Societies do not collapse . They shrink .
Discussion .
Societies can be described as fractal networks of memes . Under stress , the networks collapse fractally (ie at every level .)
The society shrinks and becomes coarser , but even after extinction of the overall network , subsidiary meme-networks survive.
The Ideal case:
Whatever the reason for the stress , this results in decrease of population until there is not enough surplus to sustain the city populations . These simply die out or return to the land .
The result is abandoned cities and a subsistence agriculture .
But usually , outside intervention by looters and brigands occurs before this .
This is best illustrated by case studies :
1.Zimbabwe II
This is their second time around (cf Zimbabwe ruins) . Though their imminent collapse is eagerly prophesized by a vulpine press , they just keep on shrinking . The hands-off attitude by SADEC and SA , plus porous borders , means that the city populations could flee . What is amazing is that the civilization keeps on functioning , but at increasingly coarse levels . It does not collapse . (The reason is hope .)
This ties in with their currency . It is the only instance I know of where a hyper-inflation was allowed to go on unchecked until it's conclusion . As expected , it became worthless , but in a smooth fashion . There was no discontinuity of collapse .
It will be fascinating to learn how memes from Zimbabwe I (circa 1400AD) played a role .
2.Maya and Angkor Wat
Gradual depopulation due to drought (deforestation : see "Biotic Pump") and subsequent wars made surpluses too small to sustain cities . They just went back to the jungle to make a subsistence living , abandoning the cities .
3.Byzantium .
Even after losing the hinterland of Anatolia , the trading elite managed to hang on in a decreasing fashion until they were catastrophically overwhelmed by the Turks in 1453 .
4.Western Roman Empire.
The Latifundia were the critical element . These were basically self-sufficient , vertically integrated companies , using the Roman genius for incorporation . As inflation eroded the currency , trade decreased . The only way to eat regularly was to belong to latifundia . The foundation stone of the Feudal System and Roman Catholic Empire .
A transformation , not a collapse .
5.The Mongols .
The Mongols are given the blame for killing millions of people in the Middle East (Kwaresm Empire , especially.)
But where are the mountains of human bones ?
Cities like Balkh and Merv have been picked over by everybody and his uncle .
But , nobody has found a million skeletons .
(This is at least 10 000 tons of bone . In a dry and depopulated area .The Mongols supposedly left no survivors .So what happened to all them bones ?)
Most probably :
The population had fractally shrunk due to desertification . By the time the Mongols arrived , there was only a small population of elites left in huge expanses of abandoned ruins (Like Constantinople) .
The Mongols deliberately spread disinformation as a terror tactic . It worked too .
Modern estimates of casualties are estimated from the size of the ruins of cities like Balkh. But these were already mostly deserted by the time the Mongols arrived .
Most telling is the fact that they did not stay . These areas could no longer support the herds of horses they needed . They had to push on to the Southern Russian steppes . And not linger too long , either .
The herds numbered about 10 million for horses alone , never mind sheep and goats .
Each Mongol had about 20 remounts . Add mares , foals ,stallions , transport , etc . Large . And all ate grass .
The Mongols were tethered by their horses .
The Present .
Population levels of natural persons (humans) in Western Europe and Japan has been falling .
One would then expect a fractal collapse .
Virtual Persons .
Companies are virtual persons (even under most legal systems) .
Expand this to include interactions via FaceBook , Twitter , Interest Groups , etc . Each set of interactions forms a virtual person , with a meme-set .
This counteracts the fractal-collapse at every level .
So even if the number of humans decrease , the number of virtual humans increase factorially .
Virtual persons outnumber real persons by many orders of magnitude . Most of the money in the systems belong to virtual persons (eg companies) . Real persons try to get a slice of it (eg share options) . The system oscillates , but not to a great degree .
Money .
Money is not a counter . It is a futures contract . (See previous posts)
Will all these trillions of added money cause inflation ?
Look where the money is going .
To Virtual Persons . And we can create as many of them as we like .
Inflation is only a problem when Real Persons have to pay more for Air , Water , Food .
Hence the immense amounts being spent on basic research by the Obama administration .
It is a vote for the future existence of humans .
The promise that humans will keep on existing to redeem these future contracts .
Besides , it will make them an embarrassing amount of money .
Hope .
Every past pulse of hope was accompanied by a pulse of population growth (see 18th century)
The same will be true now , but the population will include virtual persons .
Expect really large spin-offs from company-forming , facebook forming , etc.
The Irony .
Everybody is rich as long as they do not try to cash in on a big way .
The money is in virtual persons .
Locked into future performances .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Room at the Top" et al .
Rapunzally yours
Andre
Andre Willers
25 May 2009
Synopsis:
Societies do not collapse . They shrink .
Discussion .
Societies can be described as fractal networks of memes . Under stress , the networks collapse fractally (ie at every level .)
The society shrinks and becomes coarser , but even after extinction of the overall network , subsidiary meme-networks survive.
The Ideal case:
Whatever the reason for the stress , this results in decrease of population until there is not enough surplus to sustain the city populations . These simply die out or return to the land .
The result is abandoned cities and a subsistence agriculture .
But usually , outside intervention by looters and brigands occurs before this .
This is best illustrated by case studies :
1.Zimbabwe II
This is their second time around (cf Zimbabwe ruins) . Though their imminent collapse is eagerly prophesized by a vulpine press , they just keep on shrinking . The hands-off attitude by SADEC and SA , plus porous borders , means that the city populations could flee . What is amazing is that the civilization keeps on functioning , but at increasingly coarse levels . It does not collapse . (The reason is hope .)
This ties in with their currency . It is the only instance I know of where a hyper-inflation was allowed to go on unchecked until it's conclusion . As expected , it became worthless , but in a smooth fashion . There was no discontinuity of collapse .
It will be fascinating to learn how memes from Zimbabwe I (circa 1400AD) played a role .
2.Maya and Angkor Wat
Gradual depopulation due to drought (deforestation : see "Biotic Pump") and subsequent wars made surpluses too small to sustain cities . They just went back to the jungle to make a subsistence living , abandoning the cities .
3.Byzantium .
Even after losing the hinterland of Anatolia , the trading elite managed to hang on in a decreasing fashion until they were catastrophically overwhelmed by the Turks in 1453 .
4.Western Roman Empire.
The Latifundia were the critical element . These were basically self-sufficient , vertically integrated companies , using the Roman genius for incorporation . As inflation eroded the currency , trade decreased . The only way to eat regularly was to belong to latifundia . The foundation stone of the Feudal System and Roman Catholic Empire .
A transformation , not a collapse .
5.The Mongols .
The Mongols are given the blame for killing millions of people in the Middle East (Kwaresm Empire , especially.)
But where are the mountains of human bones ?
Cities like Balkh and Merv have been picked over by everybody and his uncle .
But , nobody has found a million skeletons .
(This is at least 10 000 tons of bone . In a dry and depopulated area .The Mongols supposedly left no survivors .So what happened to all them bones ?)
Most probably :
The population had fractally shrunk due to desertification . By the time the Mongols arrived , there was only a small population of elites left in huge expanses of abandoned ruins (Like Constantinople) .
The Mongols deliberately spread disinformation as a terror tactic . It worked too .
Modern estimates of casualties are estimated from the size of the ruins of cities like Balkh. But these were already mostly deserted by the time the Mongols arrived .
Most telling is the fact that they did not stay . These areas could no longer support the herds of horses they needed . They had to push on to the Southern Russian steppes . And not linger too long , either .
The herds numbered about 10 million for horses alone , never mind sheep and goats .
Each Mongol had about 20 remounts . Add mares , foals ,stallions , transport , etc . Large . And all ate grass .
The Mongols were tethered by their horses .
The Present .
Population levels of natural persons (humans) in Western Europe and Japan has been falling .
One would then expect a fractal collapse .
Virtual Persons .
Companies are virtual persons (even under most legal systems) .
Expand this to include interactions via FaceBook , Twitter , Interest Groups , etc . Each set of interactions forms a virtual person , with a meme-set .
This counteracts the fractal-collapse at every level .
So even if the number of humans decrease , the number of virtual humans increase factorially .
Virtual persons outnumber real persons by many orders of magnitude . Most of the money in the systems belong to virtual persons (eg companies) . Real persons try to get a slice of it (eg share options) . The system oscillates , but not to a great degree .
Money .
Money is not a counter . It is a futures contract . (See previous posts)
Will all these trillions of added money cause inflation ?
Look where the money is going .
To Virtual Persons . And we can create as many of them as we like .
Inflation is only a problem when Real Persons have to pay more for Air , Water , Food .
Hence the immense amounts being spent on basic research by the Obama administration .
It is a vote for the future existence of humans .
The promise that humans will keep on existing to redeem these future contracts .
Besides , it will make them an embarrassing amount of money .
Hope .
Every past pulse of hope was accompanied by a pulse of population growth (see 18th century)
The same will be true now , but the population will include virtual persons .
Expect really large spin-offs from company-forming , facebook forming , etc.
The Irony .
Everybody is rich as long as they do not try to cash in on a big way .
The money is in virtual persons .
Locked into future performances .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Room at the Top" et al .
Rapunzally yours
Andre
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Asteroid Guard .
Asteroid Guard .
Andre Willers
23 May 2009
Synopsis :
How to destroy a killer asteroid on two week's notice with only present planetary resources .
Discussion:
Read http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Orion , Gaia needs you!"
See NewScientist 28 Mar 2009 p28 "How to save the world from an asteroid impact."
Humans have sufficient high-energy concentrations available (ie nukes) to negate most threats , but the problem is delivery .
The constraint here is two weeks . No present delivery vehicle can mobilize sufficient mass in time .
Extinction is the penalty .
But , we can deliver many megatons with fairly pinpoint accuracy anywhere on the planet .
So , we squeeze the pimple .
Hit the asteroid with magma bolt from the planet driven by a hemispherical shaped explosion of nukes .
Use some volume of ocean (like the Pacific)
Ordinary MIRV's can saturate a shell-volume of ocean and can be programmed using fratricidal-focussing to aim the bolt .
This is a zero-sum contraption , so care should be taken not to be over-enthusiastic and crack the crust . Stay away from magma plumes and crustal boundaries .
The aiming :
This is a teensy-weensy problem .
The first shot is almost certain to miss .
Two plasma-bolts about 5 km apart will have large-scale energy transfers between them (due to chaotic charge distribution in the plasma) . Essentially , lightning bolts .They will slowly spiral about each other , transferring energy and momentum to any object caught between them .
This will increase the odds of hitting the asteroid by about 100 times , but the path will be unpredictable .
Increasing the number of bolts to an optimum can be modeled . I estimate that about five at a time should give satisfactory results .
This is reminiscent of battleship duels . At least three salvoes were needed for a hit . So about 16 clusters of 30 MIRV warheads each would be needed . Well within human capability .
The hit .
If there is no hit , finito .
If there is a hit , the mass does not go away .
The asteroid and our plasma bolt radiates energy and condenses into ball-bearing size particles . This shrapnel wipes out the any spacecraft or satellite in it's trajectory .
The flyswatter .
The baby is not clean until you have wiped it's ass .
Read again http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Orion , Gaia needs you!"
Launch a suitably large piece of crust into orbit using nukes (a few more is not going to hurt more , and will make the difference in surviving) .
Use it to swat and absorb orbital debris .
Imagine the rush piloting a multi-billion ton Orion spaceship into orbit .
Eat your heart out , V1 !
Andre
Andre Willers
23 May 2009
Synopsis :
How to destroy a killer asteroid on two week's notice with only present planetary resources .
Discussion:
Read http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Orion , Gaia needs you!"
See NewScientist 28 Mar 2009 p28 "How to save the world from an asteroid impact."
Humans have sufficient high-energy concentrations available (ie nukes) to negate most threats , but the problem is delivery .
The constraint here is two weeks . No present delivery vehicle can mobilize sufficient mass in time .
Extinction is the penalty .
But , we can deliver many megatons with fairly pinpoint accuracy anywhere on the planet .
So , we squeeze the pimple .
Hit the asteroid with magma bolt from the planet driven by a hemispherical shaped explosion of nukes .
Use some volume of ocean (like the Pacific)
Ordinary MIRV's can saturate a shell-volume of ocean and can be programmed using fratricidal-focussing to aim the bolt .
This is a zero-sum contraption , so care should be taken not to be over-enthusiastic and crack the crust . Stay away from magma plumes and crustal boundaries .
The aiming :
This is a teensy-weensy problem .
The first shot is almost certain to miss .
Two plasma-bolts about 5 km apart will have large-scale energy transfers between them (due to chaotic charge distribution in the plasma) . Essentially , lightning bolts .They will slowly spiral about each other , transferring energy and momentum to any object caught between them .
This will increase the odds of hitting the asteroid by about 100 times , but the path will be unpredictable .
Increasing the number of bolts to an optimum can be modeled . I estimate that about five at a time should give satisfactory results .
This is reminiscent of battleship duels . At least three salvoes were needed for a hit . So about 16 clusters of 30 MIRV warheads each would be needed . Well within human capability .
The hit .
If there is no hit , finito .
If there is a hit , the mass does not go away .
The asteroid and our plasma bolt radiates energy and condenses into ball-bearing size particles . This shrapnel wipes out the any spacecraft or satellite in it's trajectory .
The flyswatter .
The baby is not clean until you have wiped it's ass .
Read again http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Orion , Gaia needs you!"
Launch a suitably large piece of crust into orbit using nukes (a few more is not going to hurt more , and will make the difference in surviving) .
Use it to swat and absorb orbital debris .
Imagine the rush piloting a multi-billion ton Orion spaceship into orbit .
Eat your heart out , V1 !
Andre
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Rome vs Carthage .
Rome vs Carthage .
Andre Willers
21 May 2009
Synopsis:
Why did Rome win ?
Carthage was stronger .
Discussion :
The discussion will focus mainly on strategy , with reference to tactics where necessary .
Why did they fight in the first place ?
Carthage was a trading network . The Romans traded as well , but both were adept at a modus vivendi .
The flies in the ointment were the Greek city-states (Massilia) and those in Cicily especially . They were the pimples on the butt of the larger Greek civilization in Greece , Anatolia , Middle East , Egypt and parts further East . These were becoming under pressure from Roman Armies as internal factions appealed to the Romans for help .
The Strategic Casus-belli :
Roman Incorporation .
Remember "Roman woman shall not cook or grind corn." from previous posts .
Romans conquered and stayed . Taxes stayed .
The Greeks did not like this , neither did the Carthaginians (suitably primed by the Greeks)
At the time of the First Punic War , the focus of wealth was in the Middle East .
The idea was to let these two troublesome newcomers bleed each other over trivial spoils .
The Long-term Strategic Split .
The result of this short-term maneuvering was that Roman and Carthaginian attention was focused on the Mediterranean .
Ever wondered why the Roman-Graeco civilization did not encompass the old territories conquered by Alexander in the Middle-East ? This is the watershed . This had major consequences down to the present .
The Mediterranean focus .
The Strategy :
Who controls the Mediterranean , controls the trade and the allocation of resources of the close hinterlands .
Resources include troops . The controller of the Mediterranean is inside the decision-loop of any land-power on it's shores .
This has been true for the last 8 000 years .
The Roman surprise .
Neither side initially showed any enthusiasm for this little cooked-up war , which gave the Roman enthusiasts of matters military a chance to trot their stuff .
They redesigned the entire Roman navy and ships , including tactics to counter ramming .
A comprehensive package .
When things got serious , this was implemented on a large scale .
Briefly , the problem with any naval encounter is that battle only happens by mutual consent .
The weaker side can always escape .
Unless one side can be pinned . It can be pinned if it has to defend or attack a particular point .
Like a city or port .
But the naval force sent to this port is open to attack . So it has to be like fortress .
Ditto for supplies .
The Romans redesigned ships , marines and navy tactics so that ships using the Carthaginian ramming tactics was the equivalent of a barbarian assault on a fortified Roman castra .
They could , and did , lose if the formation was scattered by a storm . But they won more than they lost .
If the Carthaginian's did not oppose the Roman fleet , then it would be a land battle . Meat to the Romans .
If they did oppose it at sea ,
The New Roman fleet had a series of interlocked cruisers and battleships with heavy ballistae and other heavy projectile weapons . Every ship also had a large component of Marines , with Special Weapons and Tactics specific for boarding and grappling .
It is a Fleet opposing individual action . An Army against warriors .
The Carthaginian Response .
Instead of initiating a naval arms race to regain control of the Mediterranean , the Carthaginians tried to turn themselves into an Army . Hamilcar , Hasdrubal and Hannibal launched an invasion of Italy through Spain . This was doomed from the start . The interior lines of communication (the Med) was pre-empted by the Romans . They simply cut lines of communication (ie supplies and reinforcements) by landings troops from the sea in Spain and bled Hannibal to death .
An interesting aside : the name "Barcelona" derives from Barca , the family name of Hannibal .
Could Carthage have won ?
Yes . If they stuck to ships .
They were far stronger and could call on deeper resources .
But they would have to have a counter to the New Model Roman Navy .
This had a weak point , namely that it was specifically designed against individual ramming attacks (or maybe 3-4 ships in concert) . But still ramming and coming into close contact . Going back to the battle of Salamis .
It was vulnerable to counter-fleet actions , as well as strategic actions like attacks on Ostia .
Or simply swarming attacks using Fleet organizations .
The Carthaginians simply did not understand strategy as well as the Romans , and got eradicated .
Did any survive ?
Of course . Women and children of the elite were evacuated to Phoenician ports .
Tyre , Egypt , etc .
Lusitania (Portugal) was a favourite spot . Also anti-Roman for 200 years afterwards . Still separatist from Spain .
Britain (Liverpool) was another refugee center . Which is why it attracted the attention of Caesar to formulate the policy of Druid eradication . And Carthaginians couldn't play football .
The Roman Response .
"Carthaginem delenda est" .
As a matter of policy , they tracked the survivors as an object lesson in not to f**k with the Romans .
The Greek polis's that initiated the action were treated quite harshly , with the exception of Massillia , which was too important.
The Long Term Effect .
The Roman commanders never forgot the lesson of pinning tactics by using strategy .
Caesar used it extensively in Gaul .
See also http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Rome vs China"
The Byzantine Empire used it a bit too much .
One of the power-bases that enabled the LowLands in Western Europe to escape the effects of the collapse of the Western Roman Empire . Venice used it .
Notice how Roman commanders switched from land to naval to amphibious operations without raising an eyebrow . This flexibility dates back to the Punic wars .
Even Caesar as a youth could command a multi-disciplinary armed task force to zap his pirate captors .
Pirates .
Pompey used it to make piracy very unattractive , by pinning the sellers of illegal goods (fences) .
I always found it improbable , that he could bring piracy in the Med to a slow-down for 200 years by military action .
He did , but not by military action . He pinned the fences , which were mostly decuriones (equivalent of present day council members) . This worked for about 200 years , until decuriones became declasse . Not bad .
The same is true today in the Red sea an Sumatran Straights . If it spreads again to the Med , interesting times !
A good scout always uses a pin .
A string is optional .
Andre .
Andre Willers
21 May 2009
Synopsis:
Why did Rome win ?
Carthage was stronger .
Discussion :
The discussion will focus mainly on strategy , with reference to tactics where necessary .
Why did they fight in the first place ?
Carthage was a trading network . The Romans traded as well , but both were adept at a modus vivendi .
The flies in the ointment were the Greek city-states (Massilia) and those in Cicily especially . They were the pimples on the butt of the larger Greek civilization in Greece , Anatolia , Middle East , Egypt and parts further East . These were becoming under pressure from Roman Armies as internal factions appealed to the Romans for help .
The Strategic Casus-belli :
Roman Incorporation .
Remember "Roman woman shall not cook or grind corn." from previous posts .
Romans conquered and stayed . Taxes stayed .
The Greeks did not like this , neither did the Carthaginians (suitably primed by the Greeks)
At the time of the First Punic War , the focus of wealth was in the Middle East .
The idea was to let these two troublesome newcomers bleed each other over trivial spoils .
The Long-term Strategic Split .
The result of this short-term maneuvering was that Roman and Carthaginian attention was focused on the Mediterranean .
Ever wondered why the Roman-Graeco civilization did not encompass the old territories conquered by Alexander in the Middle-East ? This is the watershed . This had major consequences down to the present .
The Mediterranean focus .
The Strategy :
Who controls the Mediterranean , controls the trade and the allocation of resources of the close hinterlands .
Resources include troops . The controller of the Mediterranean is inside the decision-loop of any land-power on it's shores .
This has been true for the last 8 000 years .
The Roman surprise .
Neither side initially showed any enthusiasm for this little cooked-up war , which gave the Roman enthusiasts of matters military a chance to trot their stuff .
They redesigned the entire Roman navy and ships , including tactics to counter ramming .
A comprehensive package .
When things got serious , this was implemented on a large scale .
Briefly , the problem with any naval encounter is that battle only happens by mutual consent .
The weaker side can always escape .
Unless one side can be pinned . It can be pinned if it has to defend or attack a particular point .
Like a city or port .
But the naval force sent to this port is open to attack . So it has to be like fortress .
Ditto for supplies .
The Romans redesigned ships , marines and navy tactics so that ships using the Carthaginian ramming tactics was the equivalent of a barbarian assault on a fortified Roman castra .
They could , and did , lose if the formation was scattered by a storm . But they won more than they lost .
If the Carthaginian's did not oppose the Roman fleet , then it would be a land battle . Meat to the Romans .
If they did oppose it at sea ,
The New Roman fleet had a series of interlocked cruisers and battleships with heavy ballistae and other heavy projectile weapons . Every ship also had a large component of Marines , with Special Weapons and Tactics specific for boarding and grappling .
It is a Fleet opposing individual action . An Army against warriors .
The Carthaginian Response .
Instead of initiating a naval arms race to regain control of the Mediterranean , the Carthaginians tried to turn themselves into an Army . Hamilcar , Hasdrubal and Hannibal launched an invasion of Italy through Spain . This was doomed from the start . The interior lines of communication (the Med) was pre-empted by the Romans . They simply cut lines of communication (ie supplies and reinforcements) by landings troops from the sea in Spain and bled Hannibal to death .
An interesting aside : the name "Barcelona" derives from Barca , the family name of Hannibal .
Could Carthage have won ?
Yes . If they stuck to ships .
They were far stronger and could call on deeper resources .
But they would have to have a counter to the New Model Roman Navy .
This had a weak point , namely that it was specifically designed against individual ramming attacks (or maybe 3-4 ships in concert) . But still ramming and coming into close contact . Going back to the battle of Salamis .
It was vulnerable to counter-fleet actions , as well as strategic actions like attacks on Ostia .
Or simply swarming attacks using Fleet organizations .
The Carthaginians simply did not understand strategy as well as the Romans , and got eradicated .
Did any survive ?
Of course . Women and children of the elite were evacuated to Phoenician ports .
Tyre , Egypt , etc .
Lusitania (Portugal) was a favourite spot . Also anti-Roman for 200 years afterwards . Still separatist from Spain .
Britain (Liverpool) was another refugee center . Which is why it attracted the attention of Caesar to formulate the policy of Druid eradication . And Carthaginians couldn't play football .
The Roman Response .
"Carthaginem delenda est" .
As a matter of policy , they tracked the survivors as an object lesson in not to f**k with the Romans .
The Greek polis's that initiated the action were treated quite harshly , with the exception of Massillia , which was too important.
The Long Term Effect .
The Roman commanders never forgot the lesson of pinning tactics by using strategy .
Caesar used it extensively in Gaul .
See also http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Rome vs China"
The Byzantine Empire used it a bit too much .
One of the power-bases that enabled the LowLands in Western Europe to escape the effects of the collapse of the Western Roman Empire . Venice used it .
Notice how Roman commanders switched from land to naval to amphibious operations without raising an eyebrow . This flexibility dates back to the Punic wars .
Even Caesar as a youth could command a multi-disciplinary armed task force to zap his pirate captors .
Pirates .
Pompey used it to make piracy very unattractive , by pinning the sellers of illegal goods (fences) .
I always found it improbable , that he could bring piracy in the Med to a slow-down for 200 years by military action .
He did , but not by military action . He pinned the fences , which were mostly decuriones (equivalent of present day council members) . This worked for about 200 years , until decuriones became declasse . Not bad .
The same is true today in the Red sea an Sumatran Straights . If it spreads again to the Med , interesting times !
A good scout always uses a pin .
A string is optional .
Andre .
Monday, May 18, 2009
Biotic Pump.
Biotic Pump.
Andre Willers
18 May 2009
Synopsis:
A single forest transpirates about 50% of the moisture that falls on it . A series of forests transpirates 100% , because they attract moisture clouds .
Discussion .
See New Scientist 4 Apr 2004 "Keep the planets heart pumping."
Work by Gorschakov and Makarieva
The effect is driven by the simple physical fact that a moisture cloud has a smaller volume after it condenses into water .
What has to fill the lower pressure ? Air . It spirals in and forms thunder-cells . It rains more on the peripheries , including the periphery furthest from the coast . Trees then grow more .
But this attracts even more moisture-laden air .
Areas contiguous to cells get more than 100% moisture . This gets transmitted on .
Repeat .
The system stabilizes when the interior receives the same rainfall as the coast .
A really neat piece of work , and I wish I had thought of it .
What does it mean ?
Evaporation paths from the coast to the interior are really important .
You do not have to reforest the whole interior .
Sprinklers with a infra-red absorbent dye in the water (to evaporate the water) on the boundaries of the attractor basins and plantings of forests on the edges will reclaim even deserts within 5-10 years .
You only need to do channels from the coast . And keep the goats away .
Really nifty .
You can actually terraform deserts by just sprinkling water on small , contiguous strips for about 10 years .
Will humans actually do it ?
Doubtful .
They prefer to starve in the midst of plenty , as long as their Scientific Priesthood is satisfied .
Cf Greenland .
And so it goes and goes .
Andre .
Andre Willers
18 May 2009
Synopsis:
A single forest transpirates about 50% of the moisture that falls on it . A series of forests transpirates 100% , because they attract moisture clouds .
Discussion .
See New Scientist 4 Apr 2004 "Keep the planets heart pumping."
Work by Gorschakov and Makarieva
The effect is driven by the simple physical fact that a moisture cloud has a smaller volume after it condenses into water .
What has to fill the lower pressure ? Air . It spirals in and forms thunder-cells . It rains more on the peripheries , including the periphery furthest from the coast . Trees then grow more .
But this attracts even more moisture-laden air .
Areas contiguous to cells get more than 100% moisture . This gets transmitted on .
Repeat .
The system stabilizes when the interior receives the same rainfall as the coast .
A really neat piece of work , and I wish I had thought of it .
What does it mean ?
Evaporation paths from the coast to the interior are really important .
You do not have to reforest the whole interior .
Sprinklers with a infra-red absorbent dye in the water (to evaporate the water) on the boundaries of the attractor basins and plantings of forests on the edges will reclaim even deserts within 5-10 years .
You only need to do channels from the coast . And keep the goats away .
Really nifty .
You can actually terraform deserts by just sprinkling water on small , contiguous strips for about 10 years .
Will humans actually do it ?
Doubtful .
They prefer to starve in the midst of plenty , as long as their Scientific Priesthood is satisfied .
Cf Greenland .
And so it goes and goes .
Andre .
Saturday, May 16, 2009
The Placebo Strategy – 2
The Placebo Strategy – 2
Andre Willers
16 May 2009
See:
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "The Placebo Strategy" ,
" Financial Crisis 30 Apr 2009" : "Hysterical Focus"
New Scientist 16 May 2009 p30 ."Beware Witchdoctors" . Nocebo effects .
Synopsis :
The Placebo strategy can and has been used to deletrious effect . (Nocebo)
Discussion :
Humans are a hysterical species .
I refer to the development of Mirror-neuron Networks .
You , know , small little things like Love , Compassion , Language , Culture , Pubs , Freedom of Information , Arts , War , Armies . All those endearing things that make apes Human . Also called the Theory of Mind .
The Hysterical Focus:
Hysteria here is meant in a very specific way : exclusion .
Once a course of action has been decided by the system , any further input is excluded .
Sounds familiar ?
Hysteria .
In a crisis situation , your mirror-neural networks can present any number scenarios ("The Hamlet Option") .
But only one course of action is open , RIGHT NOW! .
The number of options have to be squeezed down and many excluded . The exclusion mechanism is "either-or" . This is derived from the synapse-firing model of the brain .
This is known as the Hysterical Focus .
This model has been so successful that it is fractally represented in Human Societies .
The decision process is described in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "The Placebo Strategy : The Logical Model"
Nocebo's
Harmful manipulations .
This is characterized by
1.Limitation of initial number of choices (information squeezing)
2.Probability steering at every iteration (also known as propaganda ,etc.)
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Cause and Effect"
It happens . The reason why it has not overwhelmed everything is that there is "Room at the Top"
Surpluses gets squeezed into abstract structures like castles , poems , art , etc ., and their maintenance .
Management does not encourage customers to hit each other on the noggin .
There is Room in the Middle .
The Piano .
A very subversive instrument .
A piano tune gives a backbone for fleshing out to the sides .
Any human can hear and compose music in their heads . (See previous posts).
This sideways creativity spills over into all sorts of spheres . Political , musical , scientific , etc .
Which was why it was required education .
Small music instruments and players (like iPod) became popular not because of their fidelity , but because of their lack of fidelity .
In order , 1/3 (33%) , 1/9 (11%) , 1/27(4%) , 1/(27*3) = 1% . 1/(27*3*3) = 0.4% .
Those scratchy things beloved by DJ's are liked exactly because of the uncertainty and creativity they engender .
There is room in the middle.
Cathedrals and Organs .
Those big pipes are not to add harmonics , but to subtract them .
If the whole audience hums at a certain pitch while inhaling and exhaling , and the stops are open , you would probably hear the equivalent of "Use OMO soap" or Greensleeves .
The old guys thought this was nifty , and got paid for it , too .
They even encoded the old tunes into the cathedrals . But sadly , all those have been incorporated into the Roman Catholic Church . Cheaper to buy a CD .
The Great Disturber .
And what has Napoleon to do with it ?
In his time , most of this information was still available . Organizations survived from Roman times , especially in the Netherlands . He used the Netherland's banking experience to strip all these organizations of their funding .
(Where do think his accountant hit teams came from ?)
This meant the end for all these comfortable gentlemen's clubs , funded by land-ownership going back to Roman days .
But why would the Netherlands change tack ? They had a sweet deal with England . Promise of protection and manpower in return for banking expertise an no hostilities . (See Niall Ferguson on the Great Merger.)
Because England reneged . They backed the Jacobines (in our terms , the most fundamentalist Communists) . A big mistake . This caused the French Revolution , and things went to hell in a handbasket from then . The Dutch saw this as a clear signal that the feudal system was dead . They made accommodations with Napoleon and subsequent European powers (like France and Germany.) .
The Netherlands have been surviving since 50 BC , uninterruptedly . Empires come and go .
Shopped at Spar lately ?
Is Brussels the head of the EU ? How many divisions does it have ?
Can you see that the placebo is preferable to the alternative : a horde of killers and slavers .
And the nocebo ?
"Ja , baas."
Andre
Andre Willers
16 May 2009
See:
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "The Placebo Strategy" ,
" Financial Crisis 30 Apr 2009" : "Hysterical Focus"
New Scientist 16 May 2009 p30 ."Beware Witchdoctors" . Nocebo effects .
Synopsis :
The Placebo strategy can and has been used to deletrious effect . (Nocebo)
Discussion :
Humans are a hysterical species .
I refer to the development of Mirror-neuron Networks .
You , know , small little things like Love , Compassion , Language , Culture , Pubs , Freedom of Information , Arts , War , Armies . All those endearing things that make apes Human . Also called the Theory of Mind .
The Hysterical Focus:
Hysteria here is meant in a very specific way : exclusion .
Once a course of action has been decided by the system , any further input is excluded .
Sounds familiar ?
Hysteria .
In a crisis situation , your mirror-neural networks can present any number scenarios ("The Hamlet Option") .
But only one course of action is open , RIGHT NOW! .
The number of options have to be squeezed down and many excluded . The exclusion mechanism is "either-or" . This is derived from the synapse-firing model of the brain .
This is known as the Hysterical Focus .
This model has been so successful that it is fractally represented in Human Societies .
The decision process is described in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "The Placebo Strategy : The Logical Model"
Nocebo's
Harmful manipulations .
This is characterized by
1.Limitation of initial number of choices (information squeezing)
2.Probability steering at every iteration (also known as propaganda ,etc.)
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Cause and Effect"
It happens . The reason why it has not overwhelmed everything is that there is "Room at the Top"
Surpluses gets squeezed into abstract structures like castles , poems , art , etc ., and their maintenance .
Management does not encourage customers to hit each other on the noggin .
There is Room in the Middle .
The Piano .
A very subversive instrument .
A piano tune gives a backbone for fleshing out to the sides .
Any human can hear and compose music in their heads . (See previous posts).
This sideways creativity spills over into all sorts of spheres . Political , musical , scientific , etc .
Which was why it was required education .
Small music instruments and players (like iPod) became popular not because of their fidelity , but because of their lack of fidelity .
In order , 1/3 (33%) , 1/9 (11%) , 1/27(4%) , 1/(27*3) = 1% . 1/(27*3*3) = 0.4% .
Those scratchy things beloved by DJ's are liked exactly because of the uncertainty and creativity they engender .
There is room in the middle.
Cathedrals and Organs .
Those big pipes are not to add harmonics , but to subtract them .
If the whole audience hums at a certain pitch while inhaling and exhaling , and the stops are open , you would probably hear the equivalent of "Use OMO soap" or Greensleeves .
The old guys thought this was nifty , and got paid for it , too .
They even encoded the old tunes into the cathedrals . But sadly , all those have been incorporated into the Roman Catholic Church . Cheaper to buy a CD .
The Great Disturber .
And what has Napoleon to do with it ?
In his time , most of this information was still available . Organizations survived from Roman times , especially in the Netherlands . He used the Netherland's banking experience to strip all these organizations of their funding .
(Where do think his accountant hit teams came from ?)
This meant the end for all these comfortable gentlemen's clubs , funded by land-ownership going back to Roman days .
But why would the Netherlands change tack ? They had a sweet deal with England . Promise of protection and manpower in return for banking expertise an no hostilities . (See Niall Ferguson on the Great Merger.)
Because England reneged . They backed the Jacobines (in our terms , the most fundamentalist Communists) . A big mistake . This caused the French Revolution , and things went to hell in a handbasket from then . The Dutch saw this as a clear signal that the feudal system was dead . They made accommodations with Napoleon and subsequent European powers (like France and Germany.) .
The Netherlands have been surviving since 50 BC , uninterruptedly . Empires come and go .
Shopped at Spar lately ?
Is Brussels the head of the EU ? How many divisions does it have ?
Can you see that the placebo is preferable to the alternative : a horde of killers and slavers .
And the nocebo ?
"Ja , baas."
Andre
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Istanbul Earthquake 2009
Istanbul Earthquake 2009
Andre Willers
12 May 2009
Synopsis :
A major earthquake (M>5.6 on Mercalli scale , >= 6.5 on Richter) has a probability of 85% during the remainder of 2009 .
Discussion :
See
http://wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_storm
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Magma Plumes" and "Corkscrew Faults"
The North Anatolian Fault .
(See Nur " Apocalypse" , p240 ISBN 978 0 691 01602 3 )
The 30 year sequence of earthquakes of magnitude>=5.6 propagating along the fault (slippage 1-2 cm/yr) from East to West is :
1939, 1942,1943,1944,1951,1957,1967,1999,2009
The 2009 is unknown , but postulated .
What is the probability of the 2009 quake?
We use a Bayesian type argument .
Differences (yrs):
3,1,1,7,6,10,32,10
Error margin +-0.5 . This is Bayesian (ie only the uncertainty at the 2009 level is material . This calculation is done at 13 May 2009 , at which time no earthquake has occurred . The probability is then for the period 13 May 2009 to 31 Dec 2009 .)
Argument:
1.In the last sixty years , the progression of earthquakes has decreased as they neared the fault-bend near Istanbul . The fault bends towards the south , bypassing Istanbul closely to the South . This increases the friction , and hence the period between quakes .
2. The 2004-2005 massive quakes in Indonesia caused instabilities in the Anatolian Faults . But the recent 2009 quake in Italy means that the destabilization is now also on the Western side of the North Anatolian Fault.
3.Look at the sequence of time differences between the quakes :because it means that it is sequential earthquake-storm , the tensions shift along and we can add the differences . Ie 3+1+2+7+6+10=29 , with an error margin of +-0.5*6 . So , a difference of 32 years(ie the 1999 quakes) is within our error margin .
4.Because these events are happening in 2009 , which is more or equal to 10 years from 1999, we can sum the probabilities :
p(earthquake)=p(3)+p(1)+p(1)+p(7)+p(6)+p(10) (six quakes out of seven)
The destabilization means that all the passed-on slippages come home to roost at once .
As a first approximation , p(earthquake) = 6/7 = 0.85
What does this mean ?
There is a 85% probability of a serious earthquake (Mercalli>=5.6 or Richter>6.5 ) occurring during 13 May 2009 to 31 Dec 2009 with an epicenter close to Istanbul (probably just south of it) , fairly close to the surface . Probably underwater , so tsunamis may be expected .
How big tsunamis?
Large tsunamis can be expected .
Get above the 400 meter mark if you can .
There will be repeated tsunamis . Don't stop and assume you are safe .
The straights subways might survive the quake , only to be crushed by the pressure of the tsunami .
Ditto the bridges .
The waves and seiches from the Sea of Marmara will be ferocious .
Landmass shift :
About 10 – 20 cm . is the estimated distance the Northern part of Anatolia will shift eastward relative to the southern part and the Eastern part of Greece .
This is an awful lot of water between the straights .
Water will rush in from the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara .
In the narrow straights , the wave-heights will be concentrated .
Seiches will wash back-and forth in the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea .
A boat is definitely unsafe .
Isn't geology exciting ?
Andre
Andre Willers
12 May 2009
Synopsis :
A major earthquake (M>5.6 on Mercalli scale , >= 6.5 on Richter) has a probability of 85% during the remainder of 2009 .
Discussion :
See
http://wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_storm
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Magma Plumes" and "Corkscrew Faults"
The North Anatolian Fault .
(See Nur " Apocalypse" , p240 ISBN 978 0 691 01602 3 )
The 30 year sequence of earthquakes of magnitude>=5.6 propagating along the fault (slippage 1-2 cm/yr) from East to West is :
1939, 1942,1943,1944,1951,1957,1967,1999,2009
The 2009 is unknown , but postulated .
What is the probability of the 2009 quake?
We use a Bayesian type argument .
Differences (yrs):
3,1,1,7,6,10,32,10
Error margin +-0.5 . This is Bayesian (ie only the uncertainty at the 2009 level is material . This calculation is done at 13 May 2009 , at which time no earthquake has occurred . The probability is then for the period 13 May 2009 to 31 Dec 2009 .)
Argument:
1.In the last sixty years , the progression of earthquakes has decreased as they neared the fault-bend near Istanbul . The fault bends towards the south , bypassing Istanbul closely to the South . This increases the friction , and hence the period between quakes .
2. The 2004-2005 massive quakes in Indonesia caused instabilities in the Anatolian Faults . But the recent 2009 quake in Italy means that the destabilization is now also on the Western side of the North Anatolian Fault.
3.Look at the sequence of time differences between the quakes :because it means that it is sequential earthquake-storm , the tensions shift along and we can add the differences . Ie 3+1+2+7+6+10=29 , with an error margin of +-0.5*6 . So , a difference of 32 years(ie the 1999 quakes) is within our error margin .
4.Because these events are happening in 2009 , which is more or equal to 10 years from 1999, we can sum the probabilities :
p(earthquake)=p(3)+p(1)+p(1)+p(7)+p(6)+p(10) (six quakes out of seven)
The destabilization means that all the passed-on slippages come home to roost at once .
As a first approximation , p(earthquake) = 6/7 = 0.85
What does this mean ?
There is a 85% probability of a serious earthquake (Mercalli>=5.6 or Richter>6.5 ) occurring during 13 May 2009 to 31 Dec 2009 with an epicenter close to Istanbul (probably just south of it) , fairly close to the surface . Probably underwater , so tsunamis may be expected .
How big tsunamis?
Large tsunamis can be expected .
Get above the 400 meter mark if you can .
There will be repeated tsunamis . Don't stop and assume you are safe .
The straights subways might survive the quake , only to be crushed by the pressure of the tsunami .
Ditto the bridges .
The waves and seiches from the Sea of Marmara will be ferocious .
Landmass shift :
About 10 – 20 cm . is the estimated distance the Northern part of Anatolia will shift eastward relative to the southern part and the Eastern part of Greece .
This is an awful lot of water between the straights .
Water will rush in from the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara .
In the narrow straights , the wave-heights will be concentrated .
Seiches will wash back-and forth in the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea .
A boat is definitely unsafe .
Isn't geology exciting ?
Andre
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Cellphones and Hierarchies.
Cellphones and Hierarchies.
Andre Willers
9 May 2009
Synopsis :
Cellphones and emails decreases the effectiveness of hierarchical organizations .
Discussion :
This seems counter-intuitive , but is immediately clear from Goldratt's Theory of Constraints .
High-level argument :
(See Appendix A for a Low Level Argument)
The very nature of an Hierarchy means that there are few people that can say Yes , but many that can say No .
By making communication faster and more efficient via cellphones or emails , the efficiency of the "No" segment is enhanced , but the efficiency of the "Yes" segment has a ceiling because of the smaller number of decision-makers .
Decisions accumulate at the choke-points of "Yes" deciders . Things slow down .
The whole system becomes less efficient , especially when measured from a time-viewpoint .
The Judicial System is very vulnerable to this effect . The number of decision-makers (magistrates , judges) is severely limited because of sad historical experience when a more ad-hoc approach was tried . This inevitably forces a hierarchy .
But it is also seen in projects (especially IT projects) where the organization cannot seem to let go of the hierarchical straight-jacket .
The result is that things slow down , are continually postponed , and generally stretch out on the time-axis .
In the meantime circumstances change . Often , by the time the original problem is settled , it has become irrelevant and the whole expensive project is cancelled . This happens often in IT .
The biggest cost-item is missed-opportunity costs . Many companies have gone bankrupt or suffered significant losses in market-share because of this .
Unfortunately , we cannot afford such a luxury in the Criminal Justice System or Service delivery in South Africa .
Companies can , and are , re-engineering themselves . The original WalMart organization was flat and non-hierarchical , preventing the fatal inventory-buildup of "No" decisions at the hierarchical nodes by empowering lower levels , or abolishing levels altogether . The Chinese are using this model . It is the classical Entrepreneur-Owner model .
Hence the term "Facebookism" to describe this model (see previous posts)
These self-organize to growth rates between 7% and 18% .
The Judicial Systems .
There is about 10 000 years of precedent , history , trial-and-error behind the present systems .
There are two main ones :
1.Trial-by-Combat .
(Ancient Egyptian , Middle-East , Roman , Dutch , Roman-Dutch , English , American)
This favours the Big Battalions . Champions (lawyers) are appointed and the judge is a referee .
Appeals can last a long time .
2.Trial-by-Examination .
(Chinese , Sharia , Early Christian , Code Napoleon) . Usually found post-revolution .
The judge examines and enquires , then makes a determination . Appeals are limited .
A fairer system . It is faster , the main requirement for ordinary people . An adverse determination can be recovered , but not if it drags on for years and years , with ever-escalating costs .
This is one of the main reasons Islam is gaining converts so fast . Faster justice . Usually fairer too at grassroots level .
Or China , for that matter . I have not seen any studies on the penetration of Chinese legal systems , but I think that many people prefer this to the western "Stomp-them and take no prisoners" approach .
The Code Napoleon was the most subversive product of the French Revolution .
The concept of legal fairness .
It destabilized Europe and is still destabilizing large parts of the world from the Roman-Dutch perspective .
Ever wondered why the French civilization was so appealing ? Even to the Vietnamese , who had seen off China and Japan .
There is an interesting little conflict shaping up between the Roman-Dutch legal system and the Code Napoleon in the EU . (Remember , the Dutch did not de-civilize or depopulate with the collapse of the Western Roman empire . This included their banking and legal systems.)
Fairness .
This keeps on popping up . As to be expected , since it is hard-wired in at a very deep level . One can argue that it can be experimentally proven at any level where learned helplessness has been proven . Since unfairness (randomness of rewards and punishments) forms the heart of learned-helplessness conditioning . Because of feedback neural networks .
And this has been proven down to cockroach level . If you treat a cockroach unfairly , it will retaliate even to its detriment . This has been experimentally proven with dogs , chimps , maybe cockroaches (I don't know) .
Definitely with humans .
The Roman-Dutch Legal System is fair only to corporates . With deep pockets and long memories . It evolved that way (Remember "Roman woman will not cook or grind corn." ? That far back . They really did a number on everybody else .
It is instructive to compare Early Christian and Sharia laws . They were mirror images initially . Even the women's clothes (nun's habits compared to chadors) were similar . Yet they diverged . Why ?:
The Black Death and Renaissance are usually taken as the reasons . But the only really major difference were the Low Lands of Western Europe , specifically the Dutch . This was recognized by the Roman Catholic Church . They saw them as pagans , direct descendants of the Romans .
Hence Spain's attacks on the Dutch . It was not about religion , or national hegemonies , or even dynasties . Two Legal Meme-Systems battled it out . The Dutch won .
So now you have to pay MicroSoft .
(See Niall Ferguson on "The Great Merger" between England and the Netherlands . )
So why did this not happen in China ?
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Rome vs China"
The Chinese did not evolve the concept of the Law above even the rulers . "The Mandate of Heaven" is by definition , arbitrary . So , in the usual human fractal fashion , it devolved down to arbitrary magistrarial examinations and determinations .
A strong argument against re-incarnation .
Imagine the message-queue Caesar or Ghenghis would face on his cell-phone and email .
Andre .
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Appendix A
A low-level argument a-la-Goldratt .
Imagine a factory floor with red machines that manufacture red widgets , and blue machines that uses the input of red widgets to manufacture blue widgets . The blue widgets are the output of the system .
The Red machines and widgets represent the "No" segments , the Blue widgets the output .
Now increase the efficiency of the red machines till the output of their red widgets overwhelms the inputs of the Blue machines.
The result is a build-up of inventory of red widgets in front of the blue machines .
In a bureaucracy or project this inventory build-up represents delays . Postponements . Slowdowns .
The results can be exactly calculated using Goldratt's Theory of Constraints .
This was the major reason for the demise of Conglomerates . (Remember them ?)
But the good news does not seem to have percolated down . Large organization and Governments keep on acting like Conglomerates , while trying to become more efficient by making parts of them more efficient .
The result is predictable .
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Andre Willers
9 May 2009
Synopsis :
Cellphones and emails decreases the effectiveness of hierarchical organizations .
Discussion :
This seems counter-intuitive , but is immediately clear from Goldratt's Theory of Constraints .
High-level argument :
(See Appendix A for a Low Level Argument)
The very nature of an Hierarchy means that there are few people that can say Yes , but many that can say No .
By making communication faster and more efficient via cellphones or emails , the efficiency of the "No" segment is enhanced , but the efficiency of the "Yes" segment has a ceiling because of the smaller number of decision-makers .
Decisions accumulate at the choke-points of "Yes" deciders . Things slow down .
The whole system becomes less efficient , especially when measured from a time-viewpoint .
The Judicial System is very vulnerable to this effect . The number of decision-makers (magistrates , judges) is severely limited because of sad historical experience when a more ad-hoc approach was tried . This inevitably forces a hierarchy .
But it is also seen in projects (especially IT projects) where the organization cannot seem to let go of the hierarchical straight-jacket .
The result is that things slow down , are continually postponed , and generally stretch out on the time-axis .
In the meantime circumstances change . Often , by the time the original problem is settled , it has become irrelevant and the whole expensive project is cancelled . This happens often in IT .
The biggest cost-item is missed-opportunity costs . Many companies have gone bankrupt or suffered significant losses in market-share because of this .
Unfortunately , we cannot afford such a luxury in the Criminal Justice System or Service delivery in South Africa .
Companies can , and are , re-engineering themselves . The original WalMart organization was flat and non-hierarchical , preventing the fatal inventory-buildup of "No" decisions at the hierarchical nodes by empowering lower levels , or abolishing levels altogether . The Chinese are using this model . It is the classical Entrepreneur-Owner model .
Hence the term "Facebookism" to describe this model (see previous posts)
These self-organize to growth rates between 7% and 18% .
The Judicial Systems .
There is about 10 000 years of precedent , history , trial-and-error behind the present systems .
There are two main ones :
1.Trial-by-Combat .
(Ancient Egyptian , Middle-East , Roman , Dutch , Roman-Dutch , English , American)
This favours the Big Battalions . Champions (lawyers) are appointed and the judge is a referee .
Appeals can last a long time .
2.Trial-by-Examination .
(Chinese , Sharia , Early Christian , Code Napoleon) . Usually found post-revolution .
The judge examines and enquires , then makes a determination . Appeals are limited .
A fairer system . It is faster , the main requirement for ordinary people . An adverse determination can be recovered , but not if it drags on for years and years , with ever-escalating costs .
This is one of the main reasons Islam is gaining converts so fast . Faster justice . Usually fairer too at grassroots level .
Or China , for that matter . I have not seen any studies on the penetration of Chinese legal systems , but I think that many people prefer this to the western "Stomp-them and take no prisoners" approach .
The Code Napoleon was the most subversive product of the French Revolution .
The concept of legal fairness .
It destabilized Europe and is still destabilizing large parts of the world from the Roman-Dutch perspective .
Ever wondered why the French civilization was so appealing ? Even to the Vietnamese , who had seen off China and Japan .
There is an interesting little conflict shaping up between the Roman-Dutch legal system and the Code Napoleon in the EU . (Remember , the Dutch did not de-civilize or depopulate with the collapse of the Western Roman empire . This included their banking and legal systems.)
Fairness .
This keeps on popping up . As to be expected , since it is hard-wired in at a very deep level . One can argue that it can be experimentally proven at any level where learned helplessness has been proven . Since unfairness (randomness of rewards and punishments) forms the heart of learned-helplessness conditioning . Because of feedback neural networks .
And this has been proven down to cockroach level . If you treat a cockroach unfairly , it will retaliate even to its detriment . This has been experimentally proven with dogs , chimps , maybe cockroaches (I don't know) .
Definitely with humans .
The Roman-Dutch Legal System is fair only to corporates . With deep pockets and long memories . It evolved that way (Remember "Roman woman will not cook or grind corn." ? That far back . They really did a number on everybody else .
It is instructive to compare Early Christian and Sharia laws . They were mirror images initially . Even the women's clothes (nun's habits compared to chadors) were similar . Yet they diverged . Why ?:
The Black Death and Renaissance are usually taken as the reasons . But the only really major difference were the Low Lands of Western Europe , specifically the Dutch . This was recognized by the Roman Catholic Church . They saw them as pagans , direct descendants of the Romans .
Hence Spain's attacks on the Dutch . It was not about religion , or national hegemonies , or even dynasties . Two Legal Meme-Systems battled it out . The Dutch won .
So now you have to pay MicroSoft .
(See Niall Ferguson on "The Great Merger" between England and the Netherlands . )
So why did this not happen in China ?
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Rome vs China"
The Chinese did not evolve the concept of the Law above even the rulers . "The Mandate of Heaven" is by definition , arbitrary . So , in the usual human fractal fashion , it devolved down to arbitrary magistrarial examinations and determinations .
A strong argument against re-incarnation .
Imagine the message-queue Caesar or Ghenghis would face on his cell-phone and email .
Andre .
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Appendix A
A low-level argument a-la-Goldratt .
Imagine a factory floor with red machines that manufacture red widgets , and blue machines that uses the input of red widgets to manufacture blue widgets . The blue widgets are the output of the system .
The Red machines and widgets represent the "No" segments , the Blue widgets the output .
Now increase the efficiency of the red machines till the output of their red widgets overwhelms the inputs of the Blue machines.
The result is a build-up of inventory of red widgets in front of the blue machines .
In a bureaucracy or project this inventory build-up represents delays . Postponements . Slowdowns .
The results can be exactly calculated using Goldratt's Theory of Constraints .
This was the major reason for the demise of Conglomerates . (Remember them ?)
But the good news does not seem to have percolated down . Large organization and Governments keep on acting like Conglomerates , while trying to become more efficient by making parts of them more efficient .
The result is predictable .
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cellphones and Hierarchies .
Cellphones and Hierarchies .
Andre Willers
9 May 2009
Synopsis :
Cellphones and emails decreases the effectiveness of hierarchical organizations .
Discussion :
This seems counter-intuitive , but is immediately clear from Goldratt's Theory of Constraints .
High-level argument :
(See Appendix A for a Low Level Argument)
The very nature of an Hierarchy means that there are few people that can say Yes , but many that can say No .
By making communication faster and more efficient via cellphones or emails , the efficiency of the "No" segment is enhanced , but the efficiency of the "Yes" segment has a ceiling because of the smaller number of decision-makers .
Decisions accumulate at the choke-points of "Yes" deciders . Things slow down .
The whole system becomes less efficient , especially when measured from a time-viewpoint .
The Judicial System is very vulnerable to this effect . The number of decision-makers (magistrates , judges) is severely limited because of sad historical experience when a more ad-hoc approach was tried . This inevitably forces a hierarchy .
But it is also seen in projects (especially IT projects) where the organization cannot seem to let go of the hierarchical straight-jacket .
The result is that things slow down , are continually postponed , and generally stretch out on the time-axis .
In the meantime circumstances change . Often , by the time the original problem is settled , it has become irrelevant and the whole expensive project is cancelled . This happens often in IT .
The biggest cost-item is missed-opportunity costs . Many companies have gone bankrupt or suffered significant losses in market-share because of this .
Unfortunately , we cannot afford such a luxury in the Criminal Justice System or Service delivery in South Africa .
Companies can , and are , re-engineering themselves . The original WalMart organization was flat and non-hierarchical , preventing the fatal inventory-buildup of "No" decisions at the hierarchical nodes by empowering lower levels , or abolishing levels altogether . The Chinese are using this model . It is the classical Entrepreneur-Owner model .
Hence the term "Facebookism" to describe this model (see previous posts)
These self-organize to growth rates between 7% and 18% .
The Judicial Systems .
There is about 10 000 years of precedent , history , trial-and-error behind the present systems .
There are two main ones :
1.Trial-by-Combat .
(Ancient Egyptian , Middle-East , Roman , Dutch , Roman-Dutch , English , American)
This favours the Big Battalions . Champions (lawyers) are appointed and the judge is a referee .
Appeals can last a long time .
2.Trial-by-Examination .
(Chinese , Sharia , Early Christian , Code Napoleon) . Usually found post-revolution .
The judge examines and enquires , then makes a determination . Appeals are limited .
A fairer system . It is faster , the main requirement for ordinary people . An adverse determination can be recovered , but not if it drags on for years and years , with ever-escalating costs .
This is one of the main reasons Islam is gaining converts so fast . Faster justice . Usually fairer too at grassroots level .
Or China , for that matter . I have not seen any studies on the penetration of Chinese legal systems , but I think that many people prefer this to the western "Stomp-them and take no prisoners" approach .
The Code Napoleon was the most subversive product of the French Revolution .
The concept of legal fairness .
It destabilized Europe and is still destabilizing large parts of the world from the Roman-Dutch perspective .
Ever wondered why the French civilization was so appealing ? Even to the Vietnamese , who had seen off China and Japan .
There is an interesting little conflict shaping up between the Roman-Dutch legal system and the Code Napoleon in the EU . (Remember , the Dutch did not de-civilize or depopulate with the collapse of the Western Roman empire . This included their banking and legal systems.)
Fairness .
This keeps on popping up . As to be expected , since it is hard-wired in at a very deep level . One can argue that it can be experimentally proven at any level where learned helplessness has been proven . Since unfairness (randomness of rewards and punishments) forms the heart of learned-helplessness conditioning . Because of feedback neural networks .
And this has been proven down to cockroach level . If you treat a cockroach unfairly , it will retaliate even to its detriment . This has been experimentally proven with dogs , chimps , maybe cockroaches (I don't know) .
Definitely with humans .
The Roman-Dutch Legal System is fair only to corporates . With deep pockets and long memories . It evolved that way (Remember "Roman woman will not cook or grind corn." ? That far back . They really did a number on everybody else .
It is instructive to compare Early Christian and Sharia laws . They were mirror images initially . Even the women's clothes (nun's habits compared to chadors) were similar . Yet they diverged . Why ?:
The Black Death and Renaissance are usually taken as the reasons . But the only really major difference were the Low Lands of Western Europe , specifically the Dutch . This was recognized by the Roman Catholic Church . They saw them as pagans , direct descendants of the Romans .
Hence Spain's attacks on the Dutch . It was not about religion , or national hegemonies , or even dynasties . Two Legal Meme-Systems battled it out . The Dutch won .
So now you have to pay MicroSoft .
(See Niall Ferguson on "The Great Merger" between England and the Netherlands . )
So why did this not happen in China ?
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Rome vs China"
The Chinese did not evolve the concept of the Law above even the rulers . "The Mandate of Heaven" is by definition , arbitrary . So , in the usual human fractal fashion , it devolved down to arbitrary magistrarial examinations and determinations .
A strong argument against re-incarnation .
Imagine the message-queue Caesar or Ghenghis would face on his cell-phone and email .
Andre .
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Appendix A
A low-level argument a-la-Goldratt .
Imagine a factory floor with red machines that manufacture red widgets , and blue machines that uses the input of red widgets to manufacture blue widgets . The blue widgets are the output of the system .
The Red machines and widgets represent the "No" segments , the Blue widgets the output .
Now increase the efficiency of the red machines till the output of their red widgets overwhelms the inputs of the Blue machines.
The result is a build-up of inventory of red widgets in front of the blue machines .
In a bureaucracy or project this inventory build-up represents delays . Postponements . Slowdowns .
The results can be exactly calculated using Goldratt's Theory of Constraints .
This was the major reason for the demise of Conglomerates . (Remember them ?)
But the good news does not seem to have percolated down . Large organization and Governments keep on acting like Conglomerates , while trying to become more efficient by making parts of them more efficient .
The result is predictable .
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Andre Willers
9 May 2009
Synopsis :
Cellphones and emails decreases the effectiveness of hierarchical organizations .
Discussion :
This seems counter-intuitive , but is immediately clear from Goldratt's Theory of Constraints .
High-level argument :
(See Appendix A for a Low Level Argument)
The very nature of an Hierarchy means that there are few people that can say Yes , but many that can say No .
By making communication faster and more efficient via cellphones or emails , the efficiency of the "No" segment is enhanced , but the efficiency of the "Yes" segment has a ceiling because of the smaller number of decision-makers .
Decisions accumulate at the choke-points of "Yes" deciders . Things slow down .
The whole system becomes less efficient , especially when measured from a time-viewpoint .
The Judicial System is very vulnerable to this effect . The number of decision-makers (magistrates , judges) is severely limited because of sad historical experience when a more ad-hoc approach was tried . This inevitably forces a hierarchy .
But it is also seen in projects (especially IT projects) where the organization cannot seem to let go of the hierarchical straight-jacket .
The result is that things slow down , are continually postponed , and generally stretch out on the time-axis .
In the meantime circumstances change . Often , by the time the original problem is settled , it has become irrelevant and the whole expensive project is cancelled . This happens often in IT .
The biggest cost-item is missed-opportunity costs . Many companies have gone bankrupt or suffered significant losses in market-share because of this .
Unfortunately , we cannot afford such a luxury in the Criminal Justice System or Service delivery in South Africa .
Companies can , and are , re-engineering themselves . The original WalMart organization was flat and non-hierarchical , preventing the fatal inventory-buildup of "No" decisions at the hierarchical nodes by empowering lower levels , or abolishing levels altogether . The Chinese are using this model . It is the classical Entrepreneur-Owner model .
Hence the term "Facebookism" to describe this model (see previous posts)
These self-organize to growth rates between 7% and 18% .
The Judicial Systems .
There is about 10 000 years of precedent , history , trial-and-error behind the present systems .
There are two main ones :
1.Trial-by-Combat .
(Ancient Egyptian , Middle-East , Roman , Dutch , Roman-Dutch , English , American)
This favours the Big Battalions . Champions (lawyers) are appointed and the judge is a referee .
Appeals can last a long time .
2.Trial-by-Examination .
(Chinese , Sharia , Early Christian , Code Napoleon) . Usually found post-revolution .
The judge examines and enquires , then makes a determination . Appeals are limited .
A fairer system . It is faster , the main requirement for ordinary people . An adverse determination can be recovered , but not if it drags on for years and years , with ever-escalating costs .
This is one of the main reasons Islam is gaining converts so fast . Faster justice . Usually fairer too at grassroots level .
Or China , for that matter . I have not seen any studies on the penetration of Chinese legal systems , but I think that many people prefer this to the western "Stomp-them and take no prisoners" approach .
The Code Napoleon was the most subversive product of the French Revolution .
The concept of legal fairness .
It destabilized Europe and is still destabilizing large parts of the world from the Roman-Dutch perspective .
Ever wondered why the French civilization was so appealing ? Even to the Vietnamese , who had seen off China and Japan .
There is an interesting little conflict shaping up between the Roman-Dutch legal system and the Code Napoleon in the EU . (Remember , the Dutch did not de-civilize or depopulate with the collapse of the Western Roman empire . This included their banking and legal systems.)
Fairness .
This keeps on popping up . As to be expected , since it is hard-wired in at a very deep level . One can argue that it can be experimentally proven at any level where learned helplessness has been proven . Since unfairness (randomness of rewards and punishments) forms the heart of learned-helplessness conditioning . Because of feedback neural networks .
And this has been proven down to cockroach level . If you treat a cockroach unfairly , it will retaliate even to its detriment . This has been experimentally proven with dogs , chimps , maybe cockroaches (I don't know) .
Definitely with humans .
The Roman-Dutch Legal System is fair only to corporates . With deep pockets and long memories . It evolved that way (Remember "Roman woman will not cook or grind corn." ? That far back . They really did a number on everybody else .
It is instructive to compare Early Christian and Sharia laws . They were mirror images initially . Even the women's clothes (nun's habits compared to chadors) were similar . Yet they diverged . Why ?:
The Black Death and Renaissance are usually taken as the reasons . But the only really major difference were the Low Lands of Western Europe , specifically the Dutch . This was recognized by the Roman Catholic Church . They saw them as pagans , direct descendants of the Romans .
Hence Spain's attacks on the Dutch . It was not about religion , or national hegemonies , or even dynasties . Two Legal Meme-Systems battled it out . The Dutch won .
So now you have to pay MicroSoft .
(See Niall Ferguson on "The Great Merger" between England and the Netherlands . )
So why did this not happen in China ?
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Rome vs China"
The Chinese did not evolve the concept of the Law above even the rulers . "The Mandate of Heaven" is by definition , arbitrary . So , in the usual human fractal fashion , it devolved down to arbitrary magistrarial examinations and determinations .
A strong argument against re-incarnation .
Imagine the message-queue Caesar or Ghenghis would face on his cell-phone and email .
Andre .
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Appendix A
A low-level argument a-la-Goldratt .
Imagine a factory floor with red machines that manufacture red widgets , and blue machines that uses the input of red widgets to manufacture blue widgets . The blue widgets are the output of the system .
The Red machines and widgets represent the "No" segments , the Blue widgets the output .
Now increase the efficiency of the red machines till the output of their red widgets overwhelms the inputs of the Blue machines.
The result is a build-up of inventory of red widgets in front of the blue machines .
In a bureaucracy or project this inventory build-up represents delays . Postponements . Slowdowns .
The results can be exactly calculated using Goldratt's Theory of Constraints .
This was the major reason for the demise of Conglomerates . (Remember them ?)
But the good news does not seem to have percolated down . Large organization and Governments keep on acting like Conglomerates , while trying to become more efficient by making parts of them more efficient .
The result is predictable .
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The Existential Chef .
The Existential Chef .
Andre Willers
8 May 2009
For Peet .
Synopsis :
Incorporation and transubstantiation is the primary working mechanism of our energy-transforms .
Discussion :
"Every masterpiece turns into shit." A chef's lament .
Certainly . The meaninglessness of Existentialism .
But it also gets transformed .
Parts get translated into Beethoven's "Ode to Joy" (after a particularly good pub lunch) , but Sartre had a bad chef and a dyspeptic disposition and could only manage "Nausea" .
A good chef is a spin artist . Literally . The chaperone molecule-complex that enabled cells to incorporate spinning flagellates like mitochondria into the cell were chefs . Making it palatable .
By extension , all chefs are immune-system and poison experts (cassava , anybody ?)
Incorporation-by-sharing is deeply fundamental in social religions like Christianity .
What about the chef in the communion wafer ?
The concept of Communion goes way back to the invention of humanity about 72 000 BC during Toba .
Nobody trusts a tame cook
Sharing food from respected chefs meant that you are not eating poor cousin George , but that you are probably not on the menu either .
Note , that nobody would trust the politicians , but would trust the chef , especially if he had a reputation for irascibility .
Can you see how deeply wired cooky's independence is ?
Nobody trusts a tame cook . Very old memes .
Celebrity Chefs
I thought that the macho environment of kitchens was the result of "Roman women shall not cook or grind corn ."
But I had it 180 degrees out of phase (see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Cause and Effect" ) .
The Roman woman were enabled to enforce this because of the kitchen environment in a mainly masculine camp .
The male slaves dragooned into the environment led to the present highly-macho kitchen environments .
Celebrity Chefs thus predates Civilization . Long before cities .
Why have we not heard of them ?
1. Nobody has looked .
2. Helen of Sparta's chef's spare-ribs is just not minstrel-material .But Agamemnon probably considered him as cause juste . There are some puzzling phrases in Homer .
Dentists .
The unsung heroes of Civilization .
Incorporation and Transubstantiation would not be as effective without them . They are a multiplier .
They are paired with chefs .
Any good chef should see that his client has a difficulty masticating his food . The difficulty is usually with teeth .
Any decent restaurant should have a good dentist on call .
Any good dentist should have good restaurants to recommend .
The existential tooth-ache suffererer has difficulty in existing .
Toothily yours
Andre
Andre Willers
8 May 2009
For Peet .
Synopsis :
Incorporation and transubstantiation is the primary working mechanism of our energy-transforms .
Discussion :
"Every masterpiece turns into shit." A chef's lament .
Certainly . The meaninglessness of Existentialism .
But it also gets transformed .
Parts get translated into Beethoven's "Ode to Joy" (after a particularly good pub lunch) , but Sartre had a bad chef and a dyspeptic disposition and could only manage "Nausea" .
A good chef is a spin artist . Literally . The chaperone molecule-complex that enabled cells to incorporate spinning flagellates like mitochondria into the cell were chefs . Making it palatable .
By extension , all chefs are immune-system and poison experts (cassava , anybody ?)
Incorporation-by-sharing is deeply fundamental in social religions like Christianity .
What about the chef in the communion wafer ?
The concept of Communion goes way back to the invention of humanity about 72 000 BC during Toba .
Nobody trusts a tame cook
Sharing food from respected chefs meant that you are not eating poor cousin George , but that you are probably not on the menu either .
Note , that nobody would trust the politicians , but would trust the chef , especially if he had a reputation for irascibility .
Can you see how deeply wired cooky's independence is ?
Nobody trusts a tame cook . Very old memes .
Celebrity Chefs
I thought that the macho environment of kitchens was the result of "Roman women shall not cook or grind corn ."
But I had it 180 degrees out of phase (see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Cause and Effect" ) .
The Roman woman were enabled to enforce this because of the kitchen environment in a mainly masculine camp .
The male slaves dragooned into the environment led to the present highly-macho kitchen environments .
Celebrity Chefs thus predates Civilization . Long before cities .
Why have we not heard of them ?
1. Nobody has looked .
2. Helen of Sparta's chef's spare-ribs is just not minstrel-material .But Agamemnon probably considered him as cause juste . There are some puzzling phrases in Homer .
Dentists .
The unsung heroes of Civilization .
Incorporation and Transubstantiation would not be as effective without them . They are a multiplier .
They are paired with chefs .
Any good chef should see that his client has a difficulty masticating his food . The difficulty is usually with teeth .
Any decent restaurant should have a good dentist on call .
Any good dentist should have good restaurants to recommend .
The existential tooth-ache suffererer has difficulty in existing .
Toothily yours
Andre
Magma Plumes .
Magma Plumes .
Andre Willers
10 May 2009
How to survive a honeymoon in Istanbul ,
The North Anatolian Fault has been producing a series of large earthquakes
See wiki or google . The time sequence is
1939,1942,1943,1944,1951,1957,1967,1999,2009.
It is moving from east to west . The next hit is Istanbul . This is well known to the authorities . Most new structures (bridges , subways,hotels) are built to withstand a moderate earthquake .
When the earth moves under you , your partner might not be responsible .
You will hear a very loud noise , then complete darkness as electrical power cuts off and dense clouds of dust and snoke envelops you . Lots of screaming and shouting .
The Emergency Exit .
You must ascertain this on checking in . Your chances of survival is significantly reduced without it (80%)
An emergency LED light would help if you had the faintest idea of where you wanted to go . See above .
Your probabilities of survival is not significantly affected by any other factors .
Where to go .
A tectonically stable site over the last 5 000 years .
North-west from Istanbul on the Western side seems to have been remarkably stable tectonically over the last 5 000 years . Head there .
And after that ?
Forget home .
Tectonic plumes expected from corkscrew faults (see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Corkscrew faults" )
will surface in East Africa , Middle-south America , Yellowstone to Missouri in the USA ., North-Eastern Asia and North-Eastern Australia . The mid-Atlantic Ridge will become active . The Corkscrew surface encompassing the Western sea-board of the South-American continent will become active .
The Magma plumes .
Sutherland will become very attractive .
Eastern Siberia equally .
Can humans do anything ?
Of course . The system is a simple Beth(0) one . If the planet threatens with a pave-over like Venus , or the Deccan Traps or Siberian traps , just squeeze the extra mass into orbit . Can always do with a bit more mass in orbit .
Fifteen 50 megaton nukes even sloppily placed will stop the process in its tracks and squeeze the pimple into orbit ,
For a time .
The initial destabilizing effect is interesting . It was the usage of chaotic mechanisms to launch probes to the near planets . Even that small imbalance was sufficient to destabilize the planetary crust and magma . It was a non-zero sum game . In an Attractor Basin .
To reverse it or use it , we have to do consciously what Beth(0) natural law does , well, naturally .
Whatever you do , do not use luminescent condoms .
Previous experiences have not been happy ones .
Andre .
Andre Willers
10 May 2009
How to survive a honeymoon in Istanbul ,
The North Anatolian Fault has been producing a series of large earthquakes
See wiki or google . The time sequence is
1939,1942,1943,1944,1951,1957,1967,1999,2009.
It is moving from east to west . The next hit is Istanbul . This is well known to the authorities . Most new structures (bridges , subways,hotels) are built to withstand a moderate earthquake .
When the earth moves under you , your partner might not be responsible .
You will hear a very loud noise , then complete darkness as electrical power cuts off and dense clouds of dust and snoke envelops you . Lots of screaming and shouting .
The Emergency Exit .
You must ascertain this on checking in . Your chances of survival is significantly reduced without it (80%)
An emergency LED light would help if you had the faintest idea of where you wanted to go . See above .
Your probabilities of survival is not significantly affected by any other factors .
Where to go .
A tectonically stable site over the last 5 000 years .
North-west from Istanbul on the Western side seems to have been remarkably stable tectonically over the last 5 000 years . Head there .
And after that ?
Forget home .
Tectonic plumes expected from corkscrew faults (see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Corkscrew faults" )
will surface in East Africa , Middle-south America , Yellowstone to Missouri in the USA ., North-Eastern Asia and North-Eastern Australia . The mid-Atlantic Ridge will become active . The Corkscrew surface encompassing the Western sea-board of the South-American continent will become active .
The Magma plumes .
Sutherland will become very attractive .
Eastern Siberia equally .
Can humans do anything ?
Of course . The system is a simple Beth(0) one . If the planet threatens with a pave-over like Venus , or the Deccan Traps or Siberian traps , just squeeze the extra mass into orbit . Can always do with a bit more mass in orbit .
Fifteen 50 megaton nukes even sloppily placed will stop the process in its tracks and squeeze the pimple into orbit ,
For a time .
The initial destabilizing effect is interesting . It was the usage of chaotic mechanisms to launch probes to the near planets . Even that small imbalance was sufficient to destabilize the planetary crust and magma . It was a non-zero sum game . In an Attractor Basin .
To reverse it or use it , we have to do consciously what Beth(0) natural law does , well, naturally .
Whatever you do , do not use luminescent condoms .
Previous experiences have not been happy ones .
Andre .
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
New Pyramid at Cape Town .
New Pyramid at Cape Town .
Andre Willers
6 May 2009
Synopsis:
A proposal :
That the human race construct a Pyramid at the southern tip of Africa to match the Pyramid at the northern tip of Africa .
Using the same tools .
Sol Kerschner (like Amenhotep) springs to mind as the person to get it done . For the same reasons .
For the usual reasons .
1.A pleasing symmetry . (Gizeh-to-CapeTown)
2.To immortalize a politician .
3.To immortalize the guy-who-gets-it-done . . (Amenhotep, Kerschner)
4.To provide work for the immediate artisans.
5.To provide work for generations thereafter .
Who pays ?
1.The usual Deep-Time suspects . All the conspiracy creepies .
Amenhotep really made them pay . The Great Pyramids were riddled with Hidden Passages , Secret Messages , Stellar Alignments , faux burial chambers , Secret Libraries , Forbidden Chambers , Dead-Falls , etc , all auctioned to the highest bidder (in a very religious way , of course.)
2.The Tourists .
Tourists in Cape Town will come from all over the world to pay for the privilege of labouring at recreating a Pyramid .
The Overseers will stay at the Cape Grace or One-and-Only . You can guess where the rest comes from .Not that much has changed . Most of the grunt-work on the original pyramids were done by tourists .
This was the basic groundwork from StoneHenge to Cathedrals .
3. The Government .
Like the original Pyramids , it is a social works project .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Room at the top"
A modest investment during the off-season secures a long-term return even during major down-turns .
The Gizeh pyramids are still returning an investment after 5 000 years .
What is often lost out of view , is that that the pyramids returned an immediate income , even while building .
4. A Pilgrimage .
This was not an afterthought , but an inherent part of the design .
And the religious could participate (for a small fee , of course) . To the Glory of the Pharaoh .
(Their residences should be found diametrically opposite the remains of the residences of the workers . That much has not changed.)
5. The Business Plan .
This is positive cash-flow from day one . (Which is why you see so many of these megalithic monuments littering the planet . )
No start-up capital is required . Just a bunch of suckers and an open piece of ground .
The Greenpoint Stadium .
This would make a nice starting point for a Pyramid .
A few rumors would not be amiss :
THEY created it to hide :
The Rhodes golden hoard , the Barnato diamonds , Princess Radziwell's Diamond Necklace ,
Nonqwasi's water bowl , Chaka's Spear ,
The Kruger Millions , the Solid Gold Ford Fairlane of Vorster (courtesy of Anglo American).
FIFA hid a 100 kg golden ingot at the base as a prize for the winners .
Great fun and games can be had by all for many centuries .
Construction :
The blocks could be quarried anywhere , then transported however (like the original pyramidal blocks were floated down the Nile) . But the last few hundred yards has to be done the old-fashioned way . By tourist muscle .
The tourists paid to immortalize themselves by inscriptions on the insides of the blocks and cladding material .
Has anyone actually looked carefully at the inscriptions on the insides of the white marmer cladding of the Egyptian pyramids ?
Now mainly only found as remnants in Cairo buildings .
Oh well . A nice holiday .
At least the South Africans have not had 5 000 years of accumulated history in ripping off tourists . (And believe me , a Hyksos or Roman does not rip off easily .)
But give the South Africans a chance .
In another 3000 years tourists might come to see the pyramid built by the great Architect Kerschner and get gently relieved of their ill-gotten gains .
Not much different from the present .
Andre
Andre Willers
6 May 2009
Synopsis:
A proposal :
That the human race construct a Pyramid at the southern tip of Africa to match the Pyramid at the northern tip of Africa .
Using the same tools .
Sol Kerschner (like Amenhotep) springs to mind as the person to get it done . For the same reasons .
For the usual reasons .
1.A pleasing symmetry . (Gizeh-to-CapeTown)
2.To immortalize a politician .
3.To immortalize the guy-who-gets-it-done . . (Amenhotep, Kerschner)
4.To provide work for the immediate artisans.
5.To provide work for generations thereafter .
Who pays ?
1.The usual Deep-Time suspects . All the conspiracy creepies .
Amenhotep really made them pay . The Great Pyramids were riddled with Hidden Passages , Secret Messages , Stellar Alignments , faux burial chambers , Secret Libraries , Forbidden Chambers , Dead-Falls , etc , all auctioned to the highest bidder (in a very religious way , of course.)
2.The Tourists .
Tourists in Cape Town will come from all over the world to pay for the privilege of labouring at recreating a Pyramid .
The Overseers will stay at the Cape Grace or One-and-Only . You can guess where the rest comes from .Not that much has changed . Most of the grunt-work on the original pyramids were done by tourists .
This was the basic groundwork from StoneHenge to Cathedrals .
3. The Government .
Like the original Pyramids , it is a social works project .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Room at the top"
A modest investment during the off-season secures a long-term return even during major down-turns .
The Gizeh pyramids are still returning an investment after 5 000 years .
What is often lost out of view , is that that the pyramids returned an immediate income , even while building .
4. A Pilgrimage .
This was not an afterthought , but an inherent part of the design .
And the religious could participate (for a small fee , of course) . To the Glory of the Pharaoh .
(Their residences should be found diametrically opposite the remains of the residences of the workers . That much has not changed.)
5. The Business Plan .
This is positive cash-flow from day one . (Which is why you see so many of these megalithic monuments littering the planet . )
No start-up capital is required . Just a bunch of suckers and an open piece of ground .
The Greenpoint Stadium .
This would make a nice starting point for a Pyramid .
A few rumors would not be amiss :
THEY created it to hide :
The Rhodes golden hoard , the Barnato diamonds , Princess Radziwell's Diamond Necklace ,
Nonqwasi's water bowl , Chaka's Spear ,
The Kruger Millions , the Solid Gold Ford Fairlane of Vorster (courtesy of Anglo American).
FIFA hid a 100 kg golden ingot at the base as a prize for the winners .
Great fun and games can be had by all for many centuries .
Construction :
The blocks could be quarried anywhere , then transported however (like the original pyramidal blocks were floated down the Nile) . But the last few hundred yards has to be done the old-fashioned way . By tourist muscle .
The tourists paid to immortalize themselves by inscriptions on the insides of the blocks and cladding material .
Has anyone actually looked carefully at the inscriptions on the insides of the white marmer cladding of the Egyptian pyramids ?
Now mainly only found as remnants in Cairo buildings .
Oh well . A nice holiday .
At least the South Africans have not had 5 000 years of accumulated history in ripping off tourists . (And believe me , a Hyksos or Roman does not rip off easily .)
But give the South Africans a chance .
In another 3000 years tourists might come to see the pyramid built by the great Architect Kerschner and get gently relieved of their ill-gotten gains .
Not much different from the present .
Andre
Friday, May 01, 2009
Corkscrew Faults .
Corkscrew Faults .
Andre Willers
1 May 2009
Synopsis :
The Corkscrew Fault is a missing component in the theoretical description of earth-faults and earthquakes .
Not only is the behaviour of the whole Corkscrew system difficult to derive from the usual three primary faults (reverse , transform and normal) , but chaotic attractor basins are involved .
Incorporation of these attractor basins is essential to any understanding sufficient for prediction .
Discussion :
Imagine a semi-molten ball revolving in a perfectly circular orbit around the sun . Any cubic cm of its interior wants to orbit the sun in its own great-circle . Examine any two hoops of them . They must intersect at least two spots . These initial intersections represent initial conditions , and we immediately suspect chaotic feedback basins .
The cubic cm cannot escape the boundary conditions of the planetary surface or orbit . They begin a corkscrew motion in a torus envelope .
Now add radioactivity (differential heat from the interior) , cooling at the exterior , make the orbit slightly elliptical , add a large moon , add volcanic activity (slingshot effects) , add Solar pressures on the magnetosphere . And don't forget spin .
The relative motion of elements in the interior torus volumes create faults , which have phase changes near the surface as heat is lost . Corkscrew Faults .
The major qualitative change is the attractor basin effect . The coiled faults also have different effects than the standard Slider-Spring model .
It is not even hard . The Mk I human brain can handle a prediction of this sort . The data is there (layered data of the interior of the earth . It only has to be assembled in a proper format .)
The joker is the attractor basins . Data-mining beloved by the present generations of scientists will not tease out the basins .
We know that life-forms thrive on surfing the boundaries of attractor basins . But such a fecundity as on earth means that the basins are close together . Very difficult to track separately .
Volcano's
Because of the sensitivity of the attractor basins , the sling-shot effects of volcano's are underrated . Two volcano's erupting at different phases of the Earth-Moon-Sun system can place an enormous torque on the underlying magma , resulting in the system shifting from one attractor basin to another . And the two eruptions are probably related .
Evidence :
1.Look for geological layers on top that could only have formed at higher temperatures than those below them . An inversion . Track it in three dimensions and see if it forms a spiraling toroid .
2.Model earthquakes using a "toroidal-spring around the planet" model . It would go far to explain the puzzling lags in present predictions .
Why has it not been seen before ? :
Two essential elements are needed : Chaos theory and seeing orbits as great circles .
Samuel R Delany (in "Babel-17") did the great circles bit , and attractor basins only became viable with computers .
Completeness .
Only a general theory of the Corkscrew Faults is needed , since any of the others can be described as special cases .
And how does this help us ?
Using the corkscrew model of springs , we can predict that the maximum stresses would be transmitted in a pole-to-pole direction , because of the rotation of earth and the slight inclination of rotation to the elliptical orbit .
The effects of the three massive 3+ Richter quakes in 2004 are slowly working their way , lagging the rotation . The earthquake in Italy (Loma Priete) should have been predicted .
Expect activation of the Atlantic Ridge volcano's and faults .
Time estimate : 2- 3 years from Italian earthquake . 2011- 2012 .
The Diego Verde landslide is almost certain to go .
I expect the USA or EU countries to rather blow it into orbit (an artificial volcano) than let the tsunami drown the Eastern Seaboard of the US and the Western Seaboards of the EU .
The present civilization has the energy resources to prevent such a catastrophe
Markers :
Watch for fish shoal movements of mass-feeders like sardines or pilchards . They have shifted from the east coast of South Africa to the West Coast , their old haunts they had forsaken just before the massive quakes in the east .
This means food is more available . Heat and seismic disturbances have increased nutrient flow to the surface .
Shit . Time seems to be even shorter than I thought . The South Atlantic ridge has already started activating . This will spread rapidly northwards (like a zipper) . And Diego Verde is right on the zipper .
I have had guys telling me how warm the water is on the west coast .
And I wondered how global warming can work so fast .
It doesn't . This is magma-warming .
If Diego Verde goes , the wave-front at Cape town is estimated at least 25 feet (7 meters) .
Northern American coast about 200 ft (70 m) , European coast about 40 ft (6m)
At least the fishing will be good .
Andre
Andre Willers
1 May 2009
Synopsis :
The Corkscrew Fault is a missing component in the theoretical description of earth-faults and earthquakes .
Not only is the behaviour of the whole Corkscrew system difficult to derive from the usual three primary faults (reverse , transform and normal) , but chaotic attractor basins are involved .
Incorporation of these attractor basins is essential to any understanding sufficient for prediction .
Discussion :
Imagine a semi-molten ball revolving in a perfectly circular orbit around the sun . Any cubic cm of its interior wants to orbit the sun in its own great-circle . Examine any two hoops of them . They must intersect at least two spots . These initial intersections represent initial conditions , and we immediately suspect chaotic feedback basins .
The cubic cm cannot escape the boundary conditions of the planetary surface or orbit . They begin a corkscrew motion in a torus envelope .
Now add radioactivity (differential heat from the interior) , cooling at the exterior , make the orbit slightly elliptical , add a large moon , add volcanic activity (slingshot effects) , add Solar pressures on the magnetosphere . And don't forget spin .
The relative motion of elements in the interior torus volumes create faults , which have phase changes near the surface as heat is lost . Corkscrew Faults .
The major qualitative change is the attractor basin effect . The coiled faults also have different effects than the standard Slider-Spring model .
It is not even hard . The Mk I human brain can handle a prediction of this sort . The data is there (layered data of the interior of the earth . It only has to be assembled in a proper format .)
The joker is the attractor basins . Data-mining beloved by the present generations of scientists will not tease out the basins .
We know that life-forms thrive on surfing the boundaries of attractor basins . But such a fecundity as on earth means that the basins are close together . Very difficult to track separately .
Volcano's
Because of the sensitivity of the attractor basins , the sling-shot effects of volcano's are underrated . Two volcano's erupting at different phases of the Earth-Moon-Sun system can place an enormous torque on the underlying magma , resulting in the system shifting from one attractor basin to another . And the two eruptions are probably related .
Evidence :
1.Look for geological layers on top that could only have formed at higher temperatures than those below them . An inversion . Track it in three dimensions and see if it forms a spiraling toroid .
2.Model earthquakes using a "toroidal-spring around the planet" model . It would go far to explain the puzzling lags in present predictions .
Why has it not been seen before ? :
Two essential elements are needed : Chaos theory and seeing orbits as great circles .
Samuel R Delany (in "Babel-17") did the great circles bit , and attractor basins only became viable with computers .
Completeness .
Only a general theory of the Corkscrew Faults is needed , since any of the others can be described as special cases .
And how does this help us ?
Using the corkscrew model of springs , we can predict that the maximum stresses would be transmitted in a pole-to-pole direction , because of the rotation of earth and the slight inclination of rotation to the elliptical orbit .
The effects of the three massive 3+ Richter quakes in 2004 are slowly working their way , lagging the rotation . The earthquake in Italy (Loma Priete) should have been predicted .
Expect activation of the Atlantic Ridge volcano's and faults .
Time estimate : 2- 3 years from Italian earthquake . 2011- 2012 .
The Diego Verde landslide is almost certain to go .
I expect the USA or EU countries to rather blow it into orbit (an artificial volcano) than let the tsunami drown the Eastern Seaboard of the US and the Western Seaboards of the EU .
The present civilization has the energy resources to prevent such a catastrophe
Markers :
Watch for fish shoal movements of mass-feeders like sardines or pilchards . They have shifted from the east coast of South Africa to the West Coast , their old haunts they had forsaken just before the massive quakes in the east .
This means food is more available . Heat and seismic disturbances have increased nutrient flow to the surface .
Shit . Time seems to be even shorter than I thought . The South Atlantic ridge has already started activating . This will spread rapidly northwards (like a zipper) . And Diego Verde is right on the zipper .
I have had guys telling me how warm the water is on the west coast .
And I wondered how global warming can work so fast .
It doesn't . This is magma-warming .
If Diego Verde goes , the wave-front at Cape town is estimated at least 25 feet (7 meters) .
Northern American coast about 200 ft (70 m) , European coast about 40 ft (6m)
At least the fishing will be good .
Andre
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