Aquila of Zimbabwe
Andre Willers
28 Sept 2008
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Is the Atkins diet evolutionary compatible? : Celtic and Bantu Cultures”
Scenario:
The argument was that a Celtic migration (about 100 000 people) circa 60 BC coast-hopped down the West-African coast , pursued by a Roman force that managed to destroy their ships somewhere south of the Congo delta . They could not return , which was the Roman strategic objective .
The Romans returned , as discussed , but what happened to the Celts ?
Genetic evidence:
I had a look at some genetic maps . There are European genetic markers in the Bantu population predating 1500AD . The problem lies in interpretation .
The generally accepted interpretation is that the markers (mutations) originated in North-Africa . Some of the population went to Europe (via landbridges like Malta during the last ice-age) , and some went south into Africa to end up south of the Congo at the start of the Bantu surge .
Refer to Jared Diamond’s arguments about the difficulty of crossing latitude and climate boundaries . North Africa and Southern Europe were climactically similar at the time .
But crossing the Tropics has some major problems for a herder culture with subsistence farming . (Impossible without water-transport . )
Some remnants of the Bantu probably did arrive south of the Congo , but few cattle . (Probable numbers : about 200 000 ,
but hardened survivors in organized tribal groups . Every inch of the way they came would have been contested .)
Meeting up with the Celtic castaways (probably about 50 000 at this time ) was a stroke of luck for both parties .
A new , vital culture was forged .
(If these numbers seem large , remember that the area was teeming with game . The main competitors were other humans who were already at optimal population densities for their environment . Foreigners in these numbers could not be tolerated , as the local’s own grandchildren would be endangered .)
Skin Colour .
Melanin concentration has been shown to a strict function of UVB radiation per latitude .
The Melanoma Gradient
Populations too white (not enough melanin) suffer higher incidences of skin cancers , as well as problems with the folic acid-vitD balances . The effect is that children who are too white will be much healthier the further away from the equator . Populations free to move will move to where children have a higher survival rate .
The Bantu light skin colour .
This evolved in North-Africa .
They were forced south by climate change and enemies to move south through some very hostile territory .
Then they met the Celts .
There was a fusion of Celtic genes and technology .
The present accepted model presupposes that lower melanin concentrations were caused by assimilating San and Koi , who had low melanin concentrations because of their high latitude . The problem is numbers . There simply was not enough numbers of San/Koi slaves to turn a ebony population into a latte .
The latest evidence is that areas like North-Africa were populated from Southern-African regions . The high-melanin (extreme black) concentrations evolved in the tropics after medium-melanin . White-skins evolved after this in extreme northern Europe .
So the proto-Bantu were medium-melanin to start with , as well as the high cheekbones and pointed chins . (Cf Mongols) . Big bums in older females are found in every peasant society where there is no food preservation . Fat has to be stored for childbearing .
Fusion .
Ubuntu .
The Celts and proto-Bantu fused into a new vital culture , enabling them to survive together where they could not apart .
Most important was the meme of co-operation , instead of conflict .
Win-win .
Technology : iron working , huts , cattle , fermented milk , pottery , preservation , etc
Software : culture : shares in cattle , a typical Celtic technology . This increases the population carrying capacity by at least a factor of ten . But limited by the lack of written records .
Raiding (continual low-level aggression to keep everyone on their toes. Works for non-professional armies)
Matrilineal descent
Rather contentious , as there was a lot of Egyptian cultural contamination via Ethiopia. The three waves of skilled agricultural refugees from Yemen after the successive failures of the Maghreb dam stirred the pot .
The One-Third Diaspora Meme :
This is telling .
In their movement south-eastwards , the Bantu were never hemmed in , so the meme-machinery of hiving off a third was never activated .
Until they ran into whites moving northwards .
The extreme facility in which the Xhosas shifted one third of the population of the Eastern Province to the Western Province in 1994 argues that this meme is alive and well .
Think about it . In most African states like Somalia , Ruanda , etc , the inhabitants have to be at death’s door before they relocate . And they want to be back in the old country as soon as possible .
But in south Africa , the Bantu say “ Ho-Hey! Where’s the bus ?” This actually happened .
The old meme-machinery kicked in . The whites experienced the one-third volkewandering at a 2 000 year remove !
What delicious irony !
The Celtic Revenge !
This is one of the main driving forces of the xenophobic attacks .
The whites have something similar .
The second Great Trek.
About a third of the white population left after 1994 . The problem was that this was not random . Only the ones who could find a job overseas left . The skilled , graduate lot .
But still , it was only a third .
A very good thing . The benefits of a captive skill pool is far outweighed by the instability they would have engendered .
Better incompetent management than war .
Anything is better than a civil war (except starvation a-la-Zimbabwe)
To get back to the Eagles .
Roman Legions liked to march over the top of a hill with the Aquila showing first , then the other standards , then the serried ranks of the legions . In total silence . Terror tactics . It worked , too .
Shamanist groups like the Druids ascribed mystic powers to the symbols (ie Eagle) . For centuries keeping the standard up was a major thing . It was at the most defended center . If you cannot keep this up , what use are you ?
Hence the Zimbabwe bird : a Roman Eagle , captured and it’s power transferred .
The terrace agriculture : from Yemen (Maghreb , Sha’aba) Queen of Sheba .
There were three breaks in the Maghreb dam . Each one was accompanied by a a refugee flux . The Maghreb dam was a single point of failure for an entire civilization.
From genetic evidence , there are still descendants in Zimbabwe .
The normal stone walls :
Ever tried to farm a stony ground ? You have to move the stones somewhere . And obviously where you will not have to move them again . This is the iterative definition of a wall .
The conical stone towers : This is standard in Ireland . Some still survive .
If they get overgrown they are mounds .
Over to you
Andre
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Job and Duty
Job and Duty
Andre Willers
25 Sept 2008
“England expects every man to do his duty “ Nelson .
“Do your job or be fired” . The Boss .
Why this dichotomy ?
Every social human always keeps at least 33% in reserve , in body , soul , and society
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes” , etc
“Duty”
is a hunt mechanism as discussed in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “ Duty”
The Hunt Mechanism can and does override this reserve mechanism .(Old evolutionary and new pack evolutionary) .
Damn the obstacles and use 100 % resources .
Heavily used in religions and armies .
“Job”
is a maintenance mechanism . The efficiency to be maintained for wives , kiddies and uncertainties .
As discussed , 33% . The 67% potential surplus is exploited by religions , armies and capitalists .
Monks
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “The Sexes of Man” .
A societal reserve mechanism .
The monks are more efficient , since they approach “Duty” .
They hunt God .
Their reserve portion is ploughed back into the society .
Capitalism :
Capitalism tries to turn every Job into a Duty .
Greater and greater efficiency for short-term gain .
The Shareowners then profit on the realization of the 67% reserve .
But this reserve is quickly exhausted . Then the system collapses to a lower sustainable level , and again , and again until we are back to 33% .
It overshoots at least two times .
This is called an Eliot Business Cycle .
Social-Capitalism
Capitalism is short term profits .(Job)
Socialism is long-term profits .(Duty)
Using futures mechanisms , we connect the two and have at least some percentage of Duty in Job . We can even say how much , since the Duty is a reserve .
A society that converts 33% of it’s Jobs into Duty is stable .
Hence the Roman and Hebrew model where municipal and religious duties =33%
Ho-ho-Ho!
It is easy to see that using futures in a capitalist model where values are always changing according to beth(0) randomness leads to the well-known Black-Scholes equations used in past futures trading .
But since Humans , which are beth(1+) , are part of the loop , this leads to tears .
Black-Scholes breaks down .
Beth(1+) randomness leads to pop-up bubbles which pinch out if left unattended .
What does this mean ?
A beth(1) society cannot do without some regulation .
Beth(x) societies can bootstrap if beth(n+1) elements scoop up the top elements of beth(n) . This is why civilization seems to advance .
Religion .
From the above , we can deduce that we are in for a heavy dose of religion , seen as duty . The CEO’s of the surviving banks better learn their hymns !
About time .
Andre Willers
25 Sept 2008
“England expects every man to do his duty “ Nelson .
“Do your job or be fired” . The Boss .
Why this dichotomy ?
Every social human always keeps at least 33% in reserve , in body , soul , and society
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes” , etc
“Duty”
is a hunt mechanism as discussed in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “ Duty”
The Hunt Mechanism can and does override this reserve mechanism .(Old evolutionary and new pack evolutionary) .
Damn the obstacles and use 100 % resources .
Heavily used in religions and armies .
“Job”
is a maintenance mechanism . The efficiency to be maintained for wives , kiddies and uncertainties .
As discussed , 33% . The 67% potential surplus is exploited by religions , armies and capitalists .
Monks
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “The Sexes of Man” .
A societal reserve mechanism .
The monks are more efficient , since they approach “Duty” .
They hunt God .
Their reserve portion is ploughed back into the society .
Capitalism :
Capitalism tries to turn every Job into a Duty .
Greater and greater efficiency for short-term gain .
The Shareowners then profit on the realization of the 67% reserve .
But this reserve is quickly exhausted . Then the system collapses to a lower sustainable level , and again , and again until we are back to 33% .
It overshoots at least two times .
This is called an Eliot Business Cycle .
Social-Capitalism
Capitalism is short term profits .(Job)
Socialism is long-term profits .(Duty)
Using futures mechanisms , we connect the two and have at least some percentage of Duty in Job . We can even say how much , since the Duty is a reserve .
A society that converts 33% of it’s Jobs into Duty is stable .
Hence the Roman and Hebrew model where municipal and religious duties =33%
Ho-ho-Ho!
It is easy to see that using futures in a capitalist model where values are always changing according to beth(0) randomness leads to the well-known Black-Scholes equations used in past futures trading .
But since Humans , which are beth(1+) , are part of the loop , this leads to tears .
Black-Scholes breaks down .
Beth(1+) randomness leads to pop-up bubbles which pinch out if left unattended .
What does this mean ?
A beth(1) society cannot do without some regulation .
Beth(x) societies can bootstrap if beth(n+1) elements scoop up the top elements of beth(n) . This is why civilization seems to advance .
Religion .
From the above , we can deduce that we are in for a heavy dose of religion , seen as duty . The CEO’s of the surviving banks better learn their hymns !
About time .
Monday, September 22, 2008
Social-Capitalism and Farming Hurricanes.
Social-Capitalism and Farming Hurricanes.
Andre Willers
22 Sept 2008
Desirable features of a hurricane .
1. Lots of fresh water .
2. Lots of power .
3. Mobility .
4. Insurance (Damage prevention)
5. Global heat pump.
6. Fertilizes shallow seas .
A hurricane is simply a large , open-air Stirling engine .
Heat+water ->water vapour(low pressure steam)
->Condensation ->
( rain +wind + lightning ) = fresh water and power
The engineering is known (if necessarily robust) .
Steering a hurricane is already possible using present computers and ground-based hardware .
With space-based hardware like solar-powered microwave emitters or hyperbolic orbit shades utilizing lunar mass-drivers using lunar dust as reflectors it will be easier.
The advantage of hurricane mobility becomes obvious : we do not need expensive pumps , pipes and irrigation . Just steer the hurricane after we have milked it of its energy to reduction of a tropical rainstorm .
With a moderate expenditure of capital , knowledge and co-operation , a semi-open sea like the Mexico-Caribbean can generate more power and fresh water than the surrounding populace can use for at least two hundred years (and renawable , too).
(See Stationary Hurricanes below).
The kicker is the insurance (prevention of hurricane damage : soak Swiss Re) , and Carbon Credits . Stirring up the Carribbean sea bottom will dramatically increase sea-life , hence carbon sequestration . Sea food production will explode .
Stationary Hurricanes and a new breed of Cowboy .
Once we can steer hurricanes , we can keep them in one spot .
Exactly like a cow .
Ownership of sea-meadow and a tethered hurricane is extremely profitable .
All the continental shelves will become profit centers far outstripping the present oil-fields . The factors are 100 to 1000 times more profitable . (Based on insolation : watts per square meter) .
Social - Capitalism
The self-destruction of unregulated Reagan Capitalism (see previous posts) , culminating in fall of Lehman Bros and the slightly previous fall of Communism has left the theoretical groundwork of capitalism-socialism at a bit of impasse .
There is so much money nobody really knows what to do with it .
This is a major problem in South Africa , where social spending is around 30% of budget .
Neither the Capitalist or Socialist systems alone can soak up the surplus .
There is enough surplus wealth for a synthesis .
Exercise for the reader : If (A plus non-A) < Universum , calculate the minimum values necessary for a synthesis , where the values obey conservation laws according to Beth(0) . Dollars are allowed , but joules are easier , since they are, after all , a girl’s best friend .
This enables blue-sky capitalism in its essence : utilizing concentrations of capital built up from many sources to do really necessary things for long-term survival , but not disdaining profits either ,and streaming profits from the future to the present .
The way to tie long-term and short term profits together :
Large scale capital projects with large profits but with wide social benefits .
This can be done by properly regulated futures . A very powerful tool to identify and exploit the maximal gradients of profit generation .
Sell Futures in Blue sky projects (like Hurricane farming , carbon farming , etc)
Universities used to be like this .
And so it goes .
Hopefully better than last time .
Andre
Andre Willers
22 Sept 2008
Desirable features of a hurricane .
1. Lots of fresh water .
2. Lots of power .
3. Mobility .
4. Insurance (Damage prevention)
5. Global heat pump.
6. Fertilizes shallow seas .
A hurricane is simply a large , open-air Stirling engine .
Heat+water ->water vapour(low pressure steam)
->Condensation ->
( rain +wind + lightning ) = fresh water and power
The engineering is known (if necessarily robust) .
Steering a hurricane is already possible using present computers and ground-based hardware .
With space-based hardware like solar-powered microwave emitters or hyperbolic orbit shades utilizing lunar mass-drivers using lunar dust as reflectors it will be easier.
The advantage of hurricane mobility becomes obvious : we do not need expensive pumps , pipes and irrigation . Just steer the hurricane after we have milked it of its energy to reduction of a tropical rainstorm .
With a moderate expenditure of capital , knowledge and co-operation , a semi-open sea like the Mexico-Caribbean can generate more power and fresh water than the surrounding populace can use for at least two hundred years (and renawable , too).
(See Stationary Hurricanes below).
The kicker is the insurance (prevention of hurricane damage : soak Swiss Re) , and Carbon Credits . Stirring up the Carribbean sea bottom will dramatically increase sea-life , hence carbon sequestration . Sea food production will explode .
Stationary Hurricanes and a new breed of Cowboy .
Once we can steer hurricanes , we can keep them in one spot .
Exactly like a cow .
Ownership of sea-meadow and a tethered hurricane is extremely profitable .
All the continental shelves will become profit centers far outstripping the present oil-fields . The factors are 100 to 1000 times more profitable . (Based on insolation : watts per square meter) .
Social - Capitalism
The self-destruction of unregulated Reagan Capitalism (see previous posts) , culminating in fall of Lehman Bros and the slightly previous fall of Communism has left the theoretical groundwork of capitalism-socialism at a bit of impasse .
There is so much money nobody really knows what to do with it .
This is a major problem in South Africa , where social spending is around 30% of budget .
Neither the Capitalist or Socialist systems alone can soak up the surplus .
There is enough surplus wealth for a synthesis .
Exercise for the reader : If (A plus non-A) < Universum , calculate the minimum values necessary for a synthesis , where the values obey conservation laws according to Beth(0) . Dollars are allowed , but joules are easier , since they are, after all , a girl’s best friend .
This enables blue-sky capitalism in its essence : utilizing concentrations of capital built up from many sources to do really necessary things for long-term survival , but not disdaining profits either ,and streaming profits from the future to the present .
The way to tie long-term and short term profits together :
Large scale capital projects with large profits but with wide social benefits .
This can be done by properly regulated futures . A very powerful tool to identify and exploit the maximal gradients of profit generation .
Sell Futures in Blue sky projects (like Hurricane farming , carbon farming , etc)
Universities used to be like this .
And so it goes .
Hopefully better than last time .
Andre
HyperTaste
HyperTaste
Andre Willers
22 Sept 2008
See Appendix A for references .
Summary :
The genetic coding and physical structures of the five general tastes have been worked out after boundary-breaking work by Dr Charles Zuker of the University of California .
There is one receptor apiece for sweet , sour , salt , savoury(umami) ,
but 30 receptors for bitter (as to be expected for poisons) .
Furthermore , all receptors are found on each papilla . The concentration of tastes on various sectors of the tongue is plain wrong .
This is not theory .
There is also strong evidence of pre-synaptic cells between these receptor-cells .
Ie , there is a neural-network active . It would be extremely surprising if there was not one . Much later retinas have very sophisticated neural-networks .
Modulators:
This is an unexpected finding .
Each receptor is mediated (ie enhanced , slightly altered or decreased ) by some simple compounds . They do not activate the receptor , but alter the activation intensity of the receptor . Reminiscent of epigenetic switches .
Some make sugar taste sweeter , some block bitterness , some enhance salty , etc .
The company Senomyx has some 500 000+ of these on library .
Some are already in production (Nestle : savoury enhancers)
These enhancers need only be present in such low concentrations that they fall under the FDA Food Additive radar ( an industry self-policing policy called GRAS is used to judge safety . The foxes are guarding the chickens . This industry is worth billions)
What to expect:
Sweetness
Expect sugar-enhancers (one molecule of sucrose will taste like 5 or 10) .
Less sugar .
Also artificial sweetener enhancers (a sucralose-enhancer is already available)
Salt
Salt-enhancers (hopefully decreasing salt intake , by making a little salt taste much saltier . But , knowing the perversity of these systems , an enormous taste for very salty-tasting products will develop among some patients , which could have very bad consequences if the enhancer is not available .
Sour (acid)
Sour enhancers similar to salt-enhancers as far as tooth decay of children’s sweets .
Acidic drinks like Coke .
Savoury (umami)
Already in production .
Layers of sawdust glued together with the proper enhancers and a bit of flavourants will be indistinguishable from the finest steak .
Bitter
The biggest danger .
Things taste bitter for a reason : namely , they are poisonous
That is why there are 30 receptors for bitter .
Fine for medicines .
But some idiot is sure to splice some bitter-blocker genes into foods that are poisonous (eg soy , cassava , cocoa , coffee ,etc)
New receptors
The large number of receptors for bitter points to an extreme plasticity in taste receptors .
Remember , plants have been in state of war with herbivores for literally hundreds of millions of years . Plants are continually evolving new poisons and deterrents , and herbivores evolving counters and avoidances .
The genetic machinery of the taste-receptors must be
a) susceptible to genetic transfer (reproduction-line?) transmittable via licking from the mother .
b) have an immune system integration (!) . Really important .
Danielle Reed (and colleagues) at the Monell Chemical Senses Center
in Philadelphia , Pennsylvania , have engineered mice that has a receptor for calcium and magnesium .
What is worrisome is that she goes on to state : “ I can taste calcium chloride , but I don’t have a word for it .” (NewScientist , 30 Aug 2008 , p23)
She most probably got that from bio-contamination .
Gene-expression on her tongue from the gene-engineering process .
See (a) and (b) above . Does her kissing partners also have this ? Children ?
How contagious is this ?
This might be a completely alternate pathway for gene-engineering .
We might already be experiencing it through fusion-cooking .
Pathogenic paths will be especially noticed , like eating disorders .
If everything tastes like shit , but your brain has not developed the conscious recognition for it , would you feel like eating ?
It might be exactly an epidemic . Contagious .
But what about oenology ?
If the taste receptors to appreciate wines are actually transmitted via an oral-contact route , you have a typical self-referencing system that can get converts .
What a clique ! . They will be traceable back to the first wine .
It makes perfect evolutionary sense , since the taste-system is the origin of the smell system (flu ,etc) . This is the very first contact between the outside and the body at molecular level , happening trillions of times a day .
First Contact Protocols.
Notice that Taste and Smell can be described as an AI(1) system , using the immune system as an external memory .
I leave the interface , packing/unpacking to the reader .
Hint : the taste of blood always come first to anything that feeds .
HyperTaste
We will soon be able to make enhancers that create hypertastes : perfect tastes . The best that the receptor can possibly taste .
Like HyperImages .
Also , literally hundreds of thousands of tastes for which we have no names .
Completely new languages will have to be invented .
The immune system will have interesting times .
Scent-Modulators .
These is possible , as the receptors are similar as they derive from similar evolutionary roots .
HyperScent :
This has already happened .
It is called the vomenerosal organ . Pheromones . Still active , but became zombies because of an evolutionary overdose .
And so it goes .
Andre
Appendix A
Sources :
“Scientific American” , Aug 2008 , “Magnifying Taste” , p76
“New Scientist” . 30 Aug 2008 , “Taste tester cells discover intense flavour boosters” , p22
“The Receptors and Cells for Mammalian Taste” by C. Zuker et al , “Nature” ,
vol 444 , p284-294 , Nov 16 2006
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Andre Willers
22 Sept 2008
See Appendix A for references .
Summary :
The genetic coding and physical structures of the five general tastes have been worked out after boundary-breaking work by Dr Charles Zuker of the University of California .
There is one receptor apiece for sweet , sour , salt , savoury(umami) ,
but 30 receptors for bitter (as to be expected for poisons) .
Furthermore , all receptors are found on each papilla . The concentration of tastes on various sectors of the tongue is plain wrong .
This is not theory .
There is also strong evidence of pre-synaptic cells between these receptor-cells .
Ie , there is a neural-network active . It would be extremely surprising if there was not one . Much later retinas have very sophisticated neural-networks .
Modulators:
This is an unexpected finding .
Each receptor is mediated (ie enhanced , slightly altered or decreased ) by some simple compounds . They do not activate the receptor , but alter the activation intensity of the receptor . Reminiscent of epigenetic switches .
Some make sugar taste sweeter , some block bitterness , some enhance salty , etc .
The company Senomyx has some 500 000+ of these on library .
Some are already in production (Nestle : savoury enhancers)
These enhancers need only be present in such low concentrations that they fall under the FDA Food Additive radar ( an industry self-policing policy called GRAS is used to judge safety . The foxes are guarding the chickens . This industry is worth billions)
What to expect:
Sweetness
Expect sugar-enhancers (one molecule of sucrose will taste like 5 or 10) .
Less sugar .
Also artificial sweetener enhancers (a sucralose-enhancer is already available)
Salt
Salt-enhancers (hopefully decreasing salt intake , by making a little salt taste much saltier . But , knowing the perversity of these systems , an enormous taste for very salty-tasting products will develop among some patients , which could have very bad consequences if the enhancer is not available .
Sour (acid)
Sour enhancers similar to salt-enhancers as far as tooth decay of children’s sweets .
Acidic drinks like Coke .
Savoury (umami)
Already in production .
Layers of sawdust glued together with the proper enhancers and a bit of flavourants will be indistinguishable from the finest steak .
Bitter
The biggest danger .
Things taste bitter for a reason : namely , they are poisonous
That is why there are 30 receptors for bitter .
Fine for medicines .
But some idiot is sure to splice some bitter-blocker genes into foods that are poisonous (eg soy , cassava , cocoa , coffee ,etc)
New receptors
The large number of receptors for bitter points to an extreme plasticity in taste receptors .
Remember , plants have been in state of war with herbivores for literally hundreds of millions of years . Plants are continually evolving new poisons and deterrents , and herbivores evolving counters and avoidances .
The genetic machinery of the taste-receptors must be
a) susceptible to genetic transfer (reproduction-line?) transmittable via licking from the mother .
b) have an immune system integration (!) . Really important .
Danielle Reed (and colleagues) at the Monell Chemical Senses Center
in Philadelphia , Pennsylvania , have engineered mice that has a receptor for calcium and magnesium .
What is worrisome is that she goes on to state : “ I can taste calcium chloride , but I don’t have a word for it .” (NewScientist , 30 Aug 2008 , p23)
She most probably got that from bio-contamination .
Gene-expression on her tongue from the gene-engineering process .
See (a) and (b) above . Does her kissing partners also have this ? Children ?
How contagious is this ?
This might be a completely alternate pathway for gene-engineering .
We might already be experiencing it through fusion-cooking .
Pathogenic paths will be especially noticed , like eating disorders .
If everything tastes like shit , but your brain has not developed the conscious recognition for it , would you feel like eating ?
It might be exactly an epidemic . Contagious .
But what about oenology ?
If the taste receptors to appreciate wines are actually transmitted via an oral-contact route , you have a typical self-referencing system that can get converts .
What a clique ! . They will be traceable back to the first wine .
It makes perfect evolutionary sense , since the taste-system is the origin of the smell system (flu ,etc) . This is the very first contact between the outside and the body at molecular level , happening trillions of times a day .
First Contact Protocols.
Notice that Taste and Smell can be described as an AI(1) system , using the immune system as an external memory .
I leave the interface , packing/unpacking to the reader .
Hint : the taste of blood always come first to anything that feeds .
HyperTaste
We will soon be able to make enhancers that create hypertastes : perfect tastes . The best that the receptor can possibly taste .
Like HyperImages .
Also , literally hundreds of thousands of tastes for which we have no names .
Completely new languages will have to be invented .
The immune system will have interesting times .
Scent-Modulators .
These is possible , as the receptors are similar as they derive from similar evolutionary roots .
HyperScent :
This has already happened .
It is called the vomenerosal organ . Pheromones . Still active , but became zombies because of an evolutionary overdose .
And so it goes .
Andre
Appendix A
Sources :
“Scientific American” , Aug 2008 , “Magnifying Taste” , p76
“New Scientist” . 30 Aug 2008 , “Taste tester cells discover intense flavour boosters” , p22
“The Receptors and Cells for Mammalian Taste” by C. Zuker et al , “Nature” ,
vol 444 , p284-294 , Nov 16 2006
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Financial Markets Sept 2008
Financial Markets Sept 2008
Andre Willers
19 Sept 2008
The time of writing is 18h55 SA time , 2008-09-19
“Cry havoc , and loose the dogs of war.” Shakespeare
What is going on ?
We have to go back to the start of the Reagan era (early 1980’s)
Not to put too fine a point on it , the US and Western systems were losing .
The USSR (and later China) used the Akademgorsk Model (see below ) .
This is superior to the freedom system in the short term .
If it were not for nuclear weapons as a stopper , Western Europe and later the USA would have been overrun .
Freedom in the West had been eroded by concentration of commercial interests .
Democracy presupposes a free and independent mass-media , but the Media had turned into Maenads .
In the meantime , physical production and innovation had been shackled by legislation written in gentler times .
An historical analogue would be Rome vs Carthage circa Hannibal’s occupation of Italy .
The Reagan Intervention .
The AI(3.1) advisors recommended unshackling the Western economic engine . All the laws preventing the positive-feedback mechanisms leading to unrestrained cancerous-type growth were repealed during the 1980 – 2002 term . This was a deliberate policy . They realized that later on this would have consequences , but first they had to survive and worry about these later .
What the system developed was not only the expected capitalist growth pattern , but a method of tapping future wealth to use now (ie “futures”) . Refer to the superiority of English and Dutch Banking systems during the Napoleonic wars .
This enabled a surge of wealth (via synergism) ,where a relatively small (6% of Western wealth) percentage was sufficient to overwhelm USSR efforts .
Put it another , more accurate way :
The marginal extra growth of the Freedom system was sufficiently higher to beat the marginal extra growth of the Akademgorsk Model .
What will happen now?
The system has driven license to it’s extreme .
As discussed in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Holidays and financial stability” , “ Artificial Intelligence “ and previous posts , the system has sufficient self-awareness to avoid self-destruction .
The memory of the external database in similar previous circumstances is utilized .
The system has learned . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Artificial Intelligence.”
Futures market regulation will evolve . It has already started , in the banning of shorting in US and UK markets . Retroactive criminal prosecutions a-la-Enron are sure to follow . Rules and penalties will follow .
In other words , the system will settle down . Future shocks will be along a logarithmic curve .Beth(0)
But of course , everybody will be trying to out-guess everybody else . This will have to be along terms of Beth(x) .
Beth Bubble Wars
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probe” , “AI” , “Randomness” etc
I will leave these to your imagination (hint : the boundaries of the rules of engagement will be reminiscent of 16th or 20th century warfare .)
A simpler , gentler age .
Have you ever seen ferociousness along a Beth(n=3 or n=4) system ?
Everybody is having a grand old time , but rather ho-hum , nobody survives .
Appendix A
The Akademgorsk Model :
Concentrate and isolate technological streams in special cities by fiat .
Thesis: this enhances speed of short-term innovation
(eg Medieval Trade Towns , Sagres : Portugal became a world power for a short time by concentration of resources .)
Pollution is disregarded .
Anti-thesis: the isolation (eg Guilds , Unions ,Soviets) lead to problems in the long term with vested interests . Pollution (which is a cross-discipline , becomes a major problem)
Synthesis : Internet . Virtual Akademgorsk’s .
The Western Freedom System does concentrate technological streams
(eg Birmingam , Detroit , Silicon Valley ) , but it does not isolate them either .
And so it goes .
Andre
Andre Willers
19 Sept 2008
The time of writing is 18h55 SA time , 2008-09-19
“Cry havoc , and loose the dogs of war.” Shakespeare
What is going on ?
We have to go back to the start of the Reagan era (early 1980’s)
Not to put too fine a point on it , the US and Western systems were losing .
The USSR (and later China) used the Akademgorsk Model (see below ) .
This is superior to the freedom system in the short term .
If it were not for nuclear weapons as a stopper , Western Europe and later the USA would have been overrun .
Freedom in the West had been eroded by concentration of commercial interests .
Democracy presupposes a free and independent mass-media , but the Media had turned into Maenads .
In the meantime , physical production and innovation had been shackled by legislation written in gentler times .
An historical analogue would be Rome vs Carthage circa Hannibal’s occupation of Italy .
The Reagan Intervention .
The AI(3.1) advisors recommended unshackling the Western economic engine . All the laws preventing the positive-feedback mechanisms leading to unrestrained cancerous-type growth were repealed during the 1980 – 2002 term . This was a deliberate policy . They realized that later on this would have consequences , but first they had to survive and worry about these later .
What the system developed was not only the expected capitalist growth pattern , but a method of tapping future wealth to use now (ie “futures”) . Refer to the superiority of English and Dutch Banking systems during the Napoleonic wars .
This enabled a surge of wealth (via synergism) ,where a relatively small (6% of Western wealth) percentage was sufficient to overwhelm USSR efforts .
Put it another , more accurate way :
The marginal extra growth of the Freedom system was sufficiently higher to beat the marginal extra growth of the Akademgorsk Model .
What will happen now?
The system has driven license to it’s extreme .
As discussed in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Holidays and financial stability” , “ Artificial Intelligence “ and previous posts , the system has sufficient self-awareness to avoid self-destruction .
The memory of the external database in similar previous circumstances is utilized .
The system has learned . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Artificial Intelligence.”
Futures market regulation will evolve . It has already started , in the banning of shorting in US and UK markets . Retroactive criminal prosecutions a-la-Enron are sure to follow . Rules and penalties will follow .
In other words , the system will settle down . Future shocks will be along a logarithmic curve .Beth(0)
But of course , everybody will be trying to out-guess everybody else . This will have to be along terms of Beth(x) .
Beth Bubble Wars
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probe” , “AI” , “Randomness” etc
I will leave these to your imagination (hint : the boundaries of the rules of engagement will be reminiscent of 16th or 20th century warfare .)
A simpler , gentler age .
Have you ever seen ferociousness along a Beth(n=3 or n=4) system ?
Everybody is having a grand old time , but rather ho-hum , nobody survives .
Appendix A
The Akademgorsk Model :
Concentrate and isolate technological streams in special cities by fiat .
Thesis: this enhances speed of short-term innovation
(eg Medieval Trade Towns , Sagres : Portugal became a world power for a short time by concentration of resources .)
Pollution is disregarded .
Anti-thesis: the isolation (eg Guilds , Unions ,Soviets) lead to problems in the long term with vested interests . Pollution (which is a cross-discipline , becomes a major problem)
Synthesis : Internet . Virtual Akademgorsk’s .
The Western Freedom System does concentrate technological streams
(eg Birmingam , Detroit , Silicon Valley ) , but it does not isolate them either .
And so it goes .
Andre
Holidays and Financial Stability .
Holidays and Financial Stability .
Andre Willers
5 Sept 2008
Holidays , dearly beloved by any working stiff .
But why do we have them at all ?
Why have potentially productive workers idle ?
The key concept is “Reserves” .
Societies that have survived the stress of wars , droughts , floods and other disasters must have reserves . But they must also use their capital efficiently .
The balance between these two competing needs have been addressed in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes” , “Infinite Probes 2” , “Reserves” , etc
It was shown that the most efficient reserves lie in the range 27% - 37% , with an average of 33% .
(This is for Beth(0) random fluctuations . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” and “Orders of Randomness 2” )
Three methods of Reserves are shown and one projected future possibility :
1.Holidays .
Workers on holiday are a reserve . In times of stress , they can be called into service .
“All hands to the wheel” (or pump as the case may be) .
For more , see appendix A below .
2.Inefficiency
This has two major drawbacks :
2.1Changing an efficient system into an efficient one has a long lead time .
Your country can be overrun before you can get into gear (eg Russia vs Nazi’s and Russia vs USA )
2.2 Too much efficiency .
Goldblatt (“The goal”) showed decisively how the conglomerates of the 1960’s foundered on this reef .
They strived to make every component of a manufacturing line 100% efficient . But random fluctuations could not be prevented . Thus huge inventories of obsolescent parts built up between the manufacturing stages , hampering innovation and eating up capital in storage costs .
This was compensated for by “Just In Time” (JIT) processes . But now there was insufficient inventories to handle shocks like oil-price fluctuations , wars , etc .
Note that money (Capital) is just another commodity .
3. Futures markets.
Reserves in the future .
The futures markets evolved to handle this , but there is a fundamental difference in the lead-time for material commodities (ie oil , iron ,etc) and Money , which can move at electronic speeds .
The theory only made provision for Beth(0) orders of randomness , and the whole thing became unstuck when higher orders of randomness became involved because of feedback mechanism involving humans .
During periods of reasonable equilibrium , the globalized system works ok . But if ANY part of it fluctuates by more than 67% , the whole system becomes unstable because of the varying lag-rates between the components of the system .
This is what happened in 2008 .
The destabilizer seems to have been bio-fuels disturbing the food-prices over the critical thresholds and exacerbating low food-reserves . The whole shebang then went unstable . Even oil , which was not the primary destabilizer . This went up steeply(destabilized) about a year after the food-prices started rocketing.
Everything is interlocked and extremely difficult to unravel at less than AI(3.1) level .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “AI-1”)
This system does stabilize after a time , but parts of it might go over tipping points into different attractors (usually war and anarchy , like Sudan and Somalia) .
Collapse of Complex Societies .(Tainter)
These collapsed in the past essentially because of their inability to manage reserves .
They were not complex enough . (Did not have enough Mathematics)
They never even got to the JIT stage .
Present society is at least one level past that , and has a proven resilience (WWII) .
4.FutureX
The markets and systems are presently evolving a system that will smooth the problems in the futures market , or at least decrease the draw-downs and severities of the fluctuations .
This is a process that will never end , since the knowledge of how to buffer the effects of self-interest of a part of a system is in an arms-race with this same self-interest .
It will probably involve buffering the lag-times between different commodities .Eg between money and wheat . This is at present rather primitively handled by closing-out dates for futures . A simple mechanism like different futures closing-dates is far from perfect , but better than the present system that treats a dollar of wheat the same as a dollar of Rubles .
This effectively adds a second dimension to monetary systems . But this has already been done to a degree by compound interest (Bonds) .
A promising route is the markets in future events now being run on the Internet .
The theory is that a market is a better predictor than theory .
Add some attempt at a theory of feedback systems like
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” , “Orders of Randomness 2”
to give a better idea of the probability of an event .
A fusion of the above markets might be fruitful .
Appendix A
Holidays
From http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes”
We expect a reserve of 27%- 37% , with an average of 33% .
We put some actual numbers on it .
We look at Western Countries .(RSA , USA , EU)
There are 365 days in a year .
Take Saturdays and Sundays as holidays .
This leaves 365 – 2x52 =261 days .
Take a further 10 public holidays = 251 days left .
Total holidays = 114 (=365-251)
This is 31.2% (= 114/365 x100)
Add a further 14 days leave for the compulsory leave at Shops and Offices level .
This is 35.1% (= 128/365 x100)
Average = 33.15% (= (31.2+35.1)/2 )
This concerns the largest part of the work force .
Add a further 14 days leave for the supervisory extra leave .
This is 38.9% (= 142/365 x100)
These evolved for reasonably efficient work-forces .
What is amazing that these holidays are called different things (usually religious) in different societies , but the percentage in successful societies are more or less 33% for the majority of the population .
Sumerian , Babylonian , Assyrian , Roman , Medieval , Modern .
As we expect , since that is the optimal reserve for a successful Beth(0) society .
( A Beth(0) society is subject mainly to random fluctuations of the order of flipping a coin . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” , “Orders of Randomness 2” )
Danger:
Human social systems are deep-optimized for 67% working days and 33% holidays .
The Paleolithic Human Social Contract .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Is the Atkins diet evolutionary compatible?”
From the diet table it follows that about a third of work on hunting gets about 95% of the kCal .
Trying to run societies outside these boundaries in non-emergency conditions lead to all sorts of horrible things .
If there are too few holidays , inefficiency increases to the point of paralysis .
The system tries to conserve the reserve percentage .
Corruption becomes endemic . Note how the two go together .
If there are too many holidays , bureaucratic bloat sets in .
The bottom levels of the organization function efficiently . They eventually dispose of the top-heavy bureaucracy . (Also called a revolution.) . Then they fall prey to being too efficient as set out above .
And so it goes .
Ever noticed that the only Empires that successfully limited their expansion
(Egyptian , Roman and Chinese) rigorously enforced holidays (mostly religious) . The Romans were the richest in their heyday , and even slaves shared in the holidays . Like the licence of Roman women not to cook or grind wheat , this just fuelled the machine to get more slaves . But with enormous reserves when needed .
Towards the end of the Western Roman Empire , interesting things happened to the latifundia slaves . As their markets dried up and everybody became Christianised in a welter of hope or despair (depending on your social position) , the latifundia slaves (by now servus had become as non-PC as the k-word in SA) became villains (attached to the villa) . They had little to do , since the transport and monetary systems for their specialized agricultural produce (wine,olives,olive oil,wheat) had collapsed . So the church had a religious holiday for every day . To match this , they had to have an inflation of saints and martyrs .
Andre
Andre Willers
5 Sept 2008
Holidays , dearly beloved by any working stiff .
But why do we have them at all ?
Why have potentially productive workers idle ?
The key concept is “Reserves” .
Societies that have survived the stress of wars , droughts , floods and other disasters must have reserves . But they must also use their capital efficiently .
The balance between these two competing needs have been addressed in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes” , “Infinite Probes 2” , “Reserves” , etc
It was shown that the most efficient reserves lie in the range 27% - 37% , with an average of 33% .
(This is for Beth(0) random fluctuations . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” and “Orders of Randomness 2” )
Three methods of Reserves are shown and one projected future possibility :
1.Holidays .
Workers on holiday are a reserve . In times of stress , they can be called into service .
“All hands to the wheel” (or pump as the case may be) .
For more , see appendix A below .
2.Inefficiency
This has two major drawbacks :
2.1Changing an efficient system into an efficient one has a long lead time .
Your country can be overrun before you can get into gear (eg Russia vs Nazi’s and Russia vs USA )
2.2 Too much efficiency .
Goldblatt (“The goal”) showed decisively how the conglomerates of the 1960’s foundered on this reef .
They strived to make every component of a manufacturing line 100% efficient . But random fluctuations could not be prevented . Thus huge inventories of obsolescent parts built up between the manufacturing stages , hampering innovation and eating up capital in storage costs .
This was compensated for by “Just In Time” (JIT) processes . But now there was insufficient inventories to handle shocks like oil-price fluctuations , wars , etc .
Note that money (Capital) is just another commodity .
3. Futures markets.
Reserves in the future .
The futures markets evolved to handle this , but there is a fundamental difference in the lead-time for material commodities (ie oil , iron ,etc) and Money , which can move at electronic speeds .
The theory only made provision for Beth(0) orders of randomness , and the whole thing became unstuck when higher orders of randomness became involved because of feedback mechanism involving humans .
During periods of reasonable equilibrium , the globalized system works ok . But if ANY part of it fluctuates by more than 67% , the whole system becomes unstable because of the varying lag-rates between the components of the system .
This is what happened in 2008 .
The destabilizer seems to have been bio-fuels disturbing the food-prices over the critical thresholds and exacerbating low food-reserves . The whole shebang then went unstable . Even oil , which was not the primary destabilizer . This went up steeply(destabilized) about a year after the food-prices started rocketing.
Everything is interlocked and extremely difficult to unravel at less than AI(3.1) level .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “AI-1”)
This system does stabilize after a time , but parts of it might go over tipping points into different attractors (usually war and anarchy , like Sudan and Somalia) .
Collapse of Complex Societies .(Tainter)
These collapsed in the past essentially because of their inability to manage reserves .
They were not complex enough . (Did not have enough Mathematics)
They never even got to the JIT stage .
Present society is at least one level past that , and has a proven resilience (WWII) .
4.FutureX
The markets and systems are presently evolving a system that will smooth the problems in the futures market , or at least decrease the draw-downs and severities of the fluctuations .
This is a process that will never end , since the knowledge of how to buffer the effects of self-interest of a part of a system is in an arms-race with this same self-interest .
It will probably involve buffering the lag-times between different commodities .Eg between money and wheat . This is at present rather primitively handled by closing-out dates for futures . A simple mechanism like different futures closing-dates is far from perfect , but better than the present system that treats a dollar of wheat the same as a dollar of Rubles .
This effectively adds a second dimension to monetary systems . But this has already been done to a degree by compound interest (Bonds) .
A promising route is the markets in future events now being run on the Internet .
The theory is that a market is a better predictor than theory .
Add some attempt at a theory of feedback systems like
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” , “Orders of Randomness 2”
to give a better idea of the probability of an event .
A fusion of the above markets might be fruitful .
Appendix A
Holidays
From http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes”
We expect a reserve of 27%- 37% , with an average of 33% .
We put some actual numbers on it .
We look at Western Countries .(RSA , USA , EU)
There are 365 days in a year .
Take Saturdays and Sundays as holidays .
This leaves 365 – 2x52 =261 days .
Take a further 10 public holidays = 251 days left .
Total holidays = 114 (=365-251)
This is 31.2% (= 114/365 x100)
Add a further 14 days leave for the compulsory leave at Shops and Offices level .
This is 35.1% (= 128/365 x100)
Average = 33.15% (= (31.2+35.1)/2 )
This concerns the largest part of the work force .
Add a further 14 days leave for the supervisory extra leave .
This is 38.9% (= 142/365 x100)
These evolved for reasonably efficient work-forces .
What is amazing that these holidays are called different things (usually religious) in different societies , but the percentage in successful societies are more or less 33% for the majority of the population .
Sumerian , Babylonian , Assyrian , Roman , Medieval , Modern .
As we expect , since that is the optimal reserve for a successful Beth(0) society .
( A Beth(0) society is subject mainly to random fluctuations of the order of flipping a coin . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” , “Orders of Randomness 2” )
Danger:
Human social systems are deep-optimized for 67% working days and 33% holidays .
The Paleolithic Human Social Contract .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Is the Atkins diet evolutionary compatible?”
From the diet table it follows that about a third of work on hunting gets about 95% of the kCal .
Trying to run societies outside these boundaries in non-emergency conditions lead to all sorts of horrible things .
If there are too few holidays , inefficiency increases to the point of paralysis .
The system tries to conserve the reserve percentage .
Corruption becomes endemic . Note how the two go together .
If there are too many holidays , bureaucratic bloat sets in .
The bottom levels of the organization function efficiently . They eventually dispose of the top-heavy bureaucracy . (Also called a revolution.) . Then they fall prey to being too efficient as set out above .
And so it goes .
Ever noticed that the only Empires that successfully limited their expansion
(Egyptian , Roman and Chinese) rigorously enforced holidays (mostly religious) . The Romans were the richest in their heyday , and even slaves shared in the holidays . Like the licence of Roman women not to cook or grind wheat , this just fuelled the machine to get more slaves . But with enormous reserves when needed .
Towards the end of the Western Roman Empire , interesting things happened to the latifundia slaves . As their markets dried up and everybody became Christianised in a welter of hope or despair (depending on your social position) , the latifundia slaves (by now servus had become as non-PC as the k-word in SA) became villains (attached to the villa) . They had little to do , since the transport and monetary systems for their specialized agricultural produce (wine,olives,olive oil,wheat) had collapsed . So the church had a religious holiday for every day . To match this , they had to have an inflation of saints and martyrs .
Andre
Friday, September 12, 2008
Duty
Duty .
Andre Willers
12 Sept 2008
“England expects every man to do his duty.” Nelson
“Death is as light as a feather . Duty is a mountain . “ Eastern epigram .
“Discipline is doing your duty .” Tacitus .
Synopsis:
The mechanisms of the duty meme enable high-level abstractions to influence low-level driven actions .
Biological analogues are reverse-transcription and epigenetics .
A purely physical example would be sonons .
Discussion
This is most easily followed by using the Matriarchos Myth (see www.andreswhy.blogspot.com “ Myths , memes and boredom” and “Artificial Intelligence”)
The bargain made with the invention of Peace at the time of Toba was that the designation of legitimate prey was only to be by the Leaders (women at first , then later by inheritance or election) . In return , freedom from being prey (essentially cannibalism) was promised .
This was hard-wired into the cultures via language (ie AI(1) . The language is also the external database)
Essentially :
You can kill them , but you can’t eat them . Reversions(like the Aztecs) were exterminated . It was our duty , your honor.
The software meme-mechanism in language and culture to allow prey-designation outside the immediate family-group evolved into the concept of Duty .
This usually involved some heavy-duty learned-helplessness conditioning during school and military training , followed by rebuilding of shattered neuronal-nets along lines of Duty assigned by authority figures .
An unintended consequence of the Chinese one-child policy and the Western-European low birthrates is that the learned-helplessness conditioning no longer happens . The essential callousness of the mechanism is negated by the “one-chick” human cosseting . (Something similar happened to the Romans when their birthrate declined . Sextus might be disciplined , but Unus not . )
Large families and duty go together .
This is why duty is usually so aggressive . The complex in the brain that being manipulated is the prey-designation complex of neurons , a variant of obsessive-cumpulsion disorder . Another variant is the Don Juan obsession , where women are targeted .
Once Duty is programmed , the organism starts hunting for prey .
Boundaries like common-sense , logic , morality , etc are overridden in the fever of the hunt .
This same mechanism has been abused by innumerable religions and sects .
Yet we must make the difference between Savanarola burning heretics in the name of duty , and the soldiers standing on the deck of the sinking Birkinhead to let the women and children escape .
Duty .
Discipline is doing your duty .
Duty and lies .
This is especially important to Mk IV Humans (ie Asperger derivatives after circa 1700 AD) See previous posts .
Since Aspergers are susceptible to rule-based systems , they can be easily subverted by a coherent lie .
Note that armed forces(at NCO levels especially , and to a lesser degree at officer level) are rule based .
We have seen that the optimum level of truth for any sapient with bandwidth less than internally generated signals (ie all) is about 33% .
Scepticism rise within +- 6% of 33% to peaks at 27% and 37% .
Outside these levels , the systems go idiosyncratic .
Ironically , the BBC broadcasts in WWII prolonged the war , by giving a lower boundary by which Germans could measure an average with the official propaganda .
Something similar happened in the Cold War on both sides .
A simple therapeutic technique for those who dare .
This will work for all sapient problems with less than 33% physical causes .
Essentially , we exploit the sapient propensity to lie about 67% of the time .
Telling the truth only 33% of the time is not trivial . To lie consistently , the system has to know what the truth is . It can handle inconsistences (paradoxes) , usually via humour (the general mechanism in the brain for handling contradictions) . But this carries heavy energy costs .
The algorithm is simple :
We use Beth(0) Randomness to inveigle the mind .
The proportions has to be 1 – 27 – 37 – 100 .
This will work on any mind with a bandwith smaller than it’s internal signal generation . (Ie not a full telepath)
Ask the patient what are his two lucky numbers (x,y)
Throw two normal six-sided dice repeatedly .
(Why two dice?
Human brains only have three short-term memory registers .
One dice is too simple , and three are too many for a stressed system .
The idea is to maintain contact with the patient.)
Tell the patient
This is important: the brain has to know that it must react .
The patient has to tell simple lies (truths minus lies) if (x+y)<24/3
The patient has to tell complete truths if (x+y)=24/3
The patient has to tell complex lies (truths plus lies) if (x+y)>24/3
It does not matter if the patient completely ignores you .
The answers does not really matter at the beginning , but the system rapidly approaches reality in the deep-mind of the patient . Quite powerful .
It does not matter if the patient initially lies on all three points . Repeated throws of the dice exhausts any lie brain pathways (neurotransmitter exhaustion) .
The system is sucked in and has no choice but to respond .
The mirror networks all fire up .
The lies(alternates) have to be visited more often. (Takes more energy )
The only way to beat it is not to interact at all .
But even that will not work if the patient is hooked up to a fMRI .
Caution :
Catatonic patients may react violently . They do monitor threats . The two varieties of lies and one safe one rapidly exhaust neurotransmitters that maintain the withdrawal state . Keep on throwing the dice and have a beady eye on the exit .
Another caution :
Do not try this alone at home with wifey .
The exhaustion of neurotransmitters in this particular cadence triggers a Hyde response .
And so it goes .
Andre .
Andre Willers
12 Sept 2008
“England expects every man to do his duty.” Nelson
“Death is as light as a feather . Duty is a mountain . “ Eastern epigram .
“Discipline is doing your duty .” Tacitus .
Synopsis:
The mechanisms of the duty meme enable high-level abstractions to influence low-level driven actions .
Biological analogues are reverse-transcription and epigenetics .
A purely physical example would be sonons .
Discussion
This is most easily followed by using the Matriarchos Myth (see www.andreswhy.blogspot.com “ Myths , memes and boredom” and “Artificial Intelligence”)
The bargain made with the invention of Peace at the time of Toba was that the designation of legitimate prey was only to be by the Leaders (women at first , then later by inheritance or election) . In return , freedom from being prey (essentially cannibalism) was promised .
This was hard-wired into the cultures via language (ie AI(1) . The language is also the external database)
Essentially :
You can kill them , but you can’t eat them . Reversions(like the Aztecs) were exterminated . It was our duty , your honor.
The software meme-mechanism in language and culture to allow prey-designation outside the immediate family-group evolved into the concept of Duty .
This usually involved some heavy-duty learned-helplessness conditioning during school and military training , followed by rebuilding of shattered neuronal-nets along lines of Duty assigned by authority figures .
An unintended consequence of the Chinese one-child policy and the Western-European low birthrates is that the learned-helplessness conditioning no longer happens . The essential callousness of the mechanism is negated by the “one-chick” human cosseting . (Something similar happened to the Romans when their birthrate declined . Sextus might be disciplined , but Unus not . )
Large families and duty go together .
This is why duty is usually so aggressive . The complex in the brain that being manipulated is the prey-designation complex of neurons , a variant of obsessive-cumpulsion disorder . Another variant is the Don Juan obsession , where women are targeted .
Once Duty is programmed , the organism starts hunting for prey .
Boundaries like common-sense , logic , morality , etc are overridden in the fever of the hunt .
This same mechanism has been abused by innumerable religions and sects .
Yet we must make the difference between Savanarola burning heretics in the name of duty , and the soldiers standing on the deck of the sinking Birkinhead to let the women and children escape .
Duty .
Discipline is doing your duty .
Duty and lies .
This is especially important to Mk IV Humans (ie Asperger derivatives after circa 1700 AD) See previous posts .
Since Aspergers are susceptible to rule-based systems , they can be easily subverted by a coherent lie .
Note that armed forces(at NCO levels especially , and to a lesser degree at officer level) are rule based .
We have seen that the optimum level of truth for any sapient with bandwidth less than internally generated signals (ie all) is about 33% .
Scepticism rise within +- 6% of 33% to peaks at 27% and 37% .
Outside these levels , the systems go idiosyncratic .
Ironically , the BBC broadcasts in WWII prolonged the war , by giving a lower boundary by which Germans could measure an average with the official propaganda .
Something similar happened in the Cold War on both sides .
A simple therapeutic technique for those who dare .
This will work for all sapient problems with less than 33% physical causes .
Essentially , we exploit the sapient propensity to lie about 67% of the time .
Telling the truth only 33% of the time is not trivial . To lie consistently , the system has to know what the truth is . It can handle inconsistences (paradoxes) , usually via humour (the general mechanism in the brain for handling contradictions) . But this carries heavy energy costs .
The algorithm is simple :
We use Beth(0) Randomness to inveigle the mind .
The proportions has to be 1 – 27 – 37 – 100 .
This will work on any mind with a bandwith smaller than it’s internal signal generation . (Ie not a full telepath)
Ask the patient what are his two lucky numbers (x,y)
Throw two normal six-sided dice repeatedly .
(Why two dice?
Human brains only have three short-term memory registers .
One dice is too simple , and three are too many for a stressed system .
The idea is to maintain contact with the patient.)
Tell the patient
This is important: the brain has to know that it must react .
The patient has to tell simple lies (truths minus lies) if (x+y)<24/3
The patient has to tell complete truths if (x+y)=24/3
The patient has to tell complex lies (truths plus lies) if (x+y)>24/3
It does not matter if the patient completely ignores you .
The answers does not really matter at the beginning , but the system rapidly approaches reality in the deep-mind of the patient . Quite powerful .
It does not matter if the patient initially lies on all three points . Repeated throws of the dice exhausts any lie brain pathways (neurotransmitter exhaustion) .
The system is sucked in and has no choice but to respond .
The mirror networks all fire up .
The lies(alternates) have to be visited more often. (Takes more energy )
The only way to beat it is not to interact at all .
But even that will not work if the patient is hooked up to a fMRI .
Caution :
Catatonic patients may react violently . They do monitor threats . The two varieties of lies and one safe one rapidly exhaust neurotransmitters that maintain the withdrawal state . Keep on throwing the dice and have a beady eye on the exit .
Another caution :
Do not try this alone at home with wifey .
The exhaustion of neurotransmitters in this particular cadence triggers a Hyde response .
And so it goes .
Andre .
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Minus Kelvin and Superconductivity.
Minus Kelvin and Superconductivity.
Andre Willers
10 Sept 2008
How can minus Kelvin be possible ?
The same way a negative refractive index is : meta-materials .
What is a meta-material ?
Designer matter .
It is a number of atoms or molecules that mimic the effects of a single atom or molecule .
(This has actually been manufactured for the “cloak of invisibility” : ie negative refraction .)
Superconductivity :
Found in metamaterials (at low temperatures for simple metamaterials)
Temperature :
Random vibrations according to classical definition .
Zero degree Kelvin is when random beth(0) vibrations stop .
But what order of Randomness?
Beth(0) , which by definition is omnidirectional .
But , we know for a fact (see proofs at http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “ Orders of Randomness” ) that higher orders of randomness exist .
The metamaterial can be seen as creating Beth(n>0) randomness .
This is directional for n>0 , unless carefully designed .
A conductor (of electricity or heat) can be seen as lots of short stretches of superconductors (eg beth(1) domains) stitched together .
Chaperones :
A long superconductor has chaperones to act like catalysts over the gaps between the interfaces between the shorter lengths .
This is why we find all those funny , exotic elements in these compounds : anything unusual will do . If it is not available , a meta-material is manufactured (called enzymes or neurotransmitters in bio-systems) .
Phonons:
Hence the success of phonons , an energy transference and recoupment process . Ie a , a meta-catalyst . A chaperone .
But note that the phonon is a relative phenomenon (ie it cannot exist on its own) . This one of the defining characteristics of Beth(2+) phenomena .
Rotations.
The major energy storage mechanism of the chaperone .
(As a clumsy first approximation , spin can be used , but it is out by several orders of magnitude.)
Standing Sonance Spin Waves and Maxwell’s Demon .
To get Standing Sonance Spin Waves , you need Beth(2+) . Thus , it is no surprise that the Second Law of Thermodynamics is violated .
In other words , heat can be transferred into linear momentum .
(Beth(0) motion can be channeled into Beth(1+) motion.)
I am tired of explaining the obvious .
Andre
Andre Willers
10 Sept 2008
How can minus Kelvin be possible ?
The same way a negative refractive index is : meta-materials .
What is a meta-material ?
Designer matter .
It is a number of atoms or molecules that mimic the effects of a single atom or molecule .
(This has actually been manufactured for the “cloak of invisibility” : ie negative refraction .)
Superconductivity :
Found in metamaterials (at low temperatures for simple metamaterials)
Temperature :
Random vibrations according to classical definition .
Zero degree Kelvin is when random beth(0) vibrations stop .
But what order of Randomness?
Beth(0) , which by definition is omnidirectional .
But , we know for a fact (see proofs at http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “ Orders of Randomness” ) that higher orders of randomness exist .
The metamaterial can be seen as creating Beth(n>0) randomness .
This is directional for n>0 , unless carefully designed .
A conductor (of electricity or heat) can be seen as lots of short stretches of superconductors (eg beth(1) domains) stitched together .
Chaperones :
A long superconductor has chaperones to act like catalysts over the gaps between the interfaces between the shorter lengths .
This is why we find all those funny , exotic elements in these compounds : anything unusual will do . If it is not available , a meta-material is manufactured (called enzymes or neurotransmitters in bio-systems) .
Phonons:
Hence the success of phonons , an energy transference and recoupment process . Ie a , a meta-catalyst . A chaperone .
But note that the phonon is a relative phenomenon (ie it cannot exist on its own) . This one of the defining characteristics of Beth(2+) phenomena .
Rotations.
The major energy storage mechanism of the chaperone .
(As a clumsy first approximation , spin can be used , but it is out by several orders of magnitude.)
Standing Sonance Spin Waves and Maxwell’s Demon .
To get Standing Sonance Spin Waves , you need Beth(2+) . Thus , it is no surprise that the Second Law of Thermodynamics is violated .
In other words , heat can be transferred into linear momentum .
(Beth(0) motion can be channeled into Beth(1+) motion.)
I am tired of explaining the obvious .
Andre
Friday, September 05, 2008
Holidays and Financial Stability .
Holidays and Financial Stability .
Andre Willers
5 Sept 2008
Holidays , dearly beloved by any working stiff .
But why do we have them at all ?
Why have potentially productive workers idle ?
The key concept is “Reserves” .
Societies that have survived the stress of wars , droughts , floods and other disasters must have reserves . But they must also use their capital efficiently .
The balance between these two competing needs have been addressed in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes” , “Infinite Probes 2” , “Reserves” , etc
It was shown that the most efficient reserves lie in the range 27% - 37% , with an average of 33% .
(This is for Beth(0) random fluctuations . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” and “Orders of Randomness 2” )
Three methods of Reserves are shown and one projected future possibility :
1.Holidays .
Workers on holiday are a reserve . In times of stress , they can be called into service .
“All hands to the wheel” (or pump as the case may be) .
For more , see appendix A below .
2.Inefficiency
This has two major drawbacks :
2.1Changing an efficient system into an efficient one has a long lead time .
Your country can be overrun before you can get into gear (eg Russia vs Nazi’s and Russia vs USA )
2.2 Too much efficiency .
Goldblatt (“The goal”) showed decisively how the conglomerates of the 1960’s foundered on this reef .
They strived to make every component of a manufacturing line 100% efficient . But random fluctuations could not be prevented . Thus huge inventories of obsolescent parts built up between the manufacturing stages , hampering innovation and eating up capital in storage costs .
This was compensated for by “Just In Time” (JIT) processes . But now there was insufficient inventories to handle shocks like oil-price fluctuations , wars , etc .
Note that money (Capital) is just another commodity .
3. Futures markets.
Reserves in the future .
The futures markets evolved to handle this , but there is a fundamental difference in the lead-time for material commodities (ie oil , iron ,etc) and Money , which can move at electronic speeds .
The theory only made provision for Beth(0) orders of randomness , and the whole thing became unstuck when higher orders of randomness became involved because of feedback mechanism involving humans .
During periods of reasonable equilibrium , the globalized system works ok . But if ANY part of it fluctuates by more than 67% , the whole system becomes unstable because of the varying lag-rates between the components of the system .
This is what happened in 2008 .
The destabilizer seems to have been bio-fuels disturbing the food-prices over the critical thresholds and exacerbating low food-reserves . The whole shebang then went unstable . Even oil , which was not the primary destabilizer . This went up steeply(destabilized) about a year after the food-prices started rocketing.
Everything is interlocked and extremely difficult to unravel at less than AI(3.1) level .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “AI-1”)
This system does stabilize after a time , but parts of it might go over tipping points into different attractors (usually war and anarchy , like Sudan and Somalia) .
Collapse of Complex Societies .(Tainter)
These collapsed in the past essentially because of their inability to manage reserves .
They were not complex enough . (Did not have enough Mathematics)
They never even got to the JIT stage .
Present society is at least one level past that , and has a proven resilience (WWII) .
4.FutureX
The markets and systems are presently evolving a system that will smooth the problems in the futures market , or at least decrease the draw-downs and severities of the fluctuations .
This is a process that will never end , since the knowledge of how to buffer the effects of self-interest of a part of a system is in an arms-race with this same self-interest .
It will probably involve buffering the lag-times between different commodities .Eg between money and wheat . This is at present rather primitively handled by closing-out dates for futures . A simple mechanism like different futures closing-dates is far from perfect , but better than the present system that treats a dollar of wheat the same as a dollar of Rubles .
This effectively adds a second dimension to monetary systems . But this has already been done to a degree by compound interest (Bonds) .
A promising route is the markets in future events now being run on the Internet .
The theory is that a market is a better predictor than theory .
Add some attempt at a theory of feedback systems like
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” , “Orders of Randomness 2”
to give a better idea of the probability of an event .
A fusion of the above markets might be fruitful .
Appendix A
Holidays
From http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes”
We expect a reserve of 27%- 37% , with an average of 33% .
We put some actual numbers on it .
We look at Western Countries .(RSA , USA , EU)
There are 365 days in a year .
Take Saturdays and Sundays as holidays .
This leaves 365 – 2x52 =261 days .
Take a further 10 public holidays = 251 days left .
Total holidays = 114 (=365-251)
This is 31.2% (= 114/365 x100)
Add a further 14 days leave for the compulsory leave at Shops and Offices level .
This is 35.1% (= 128/365 x100)
Average = 33.15% (= (31.2+35.1)/2 )
This concerns the largest part of the work force .
Add a further 14 days leave for the supervisory extra leave .
This is 38.9% (= 142/365 x100)
These evolved for reasonably efficient work-forces .
What is amazing that these holidays are called different things (usually religious) in different societies , but the percentage in successful societies are more or less 33% for the majority of the population .
Sumerian , Babylonian , Assyrian , Roman , Medieval , Modern .
As we expect , since that is the optimal reserve for a successful Beth(0) society .
( A Beth(0) society is subject mainly to random fluctuations of the order of flipping a coin . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” , “Orders of Randomness 2” )
Danger:
Human social systems are deep-optimized for 67% working days and 33% holidays .
The Paleolithic Human Social Contract .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Is the Atkins diet evolutionary compatible?”
From the diet table it follows that about a third of work on hunting gets about 95% of the kCal .
Trying to run societies outside these boundaries in non-emergency conditions lead to all sorts of horrible things .
If there are too few holidays , inefficiency increases to the point of paralysis .
The system tries to conserve the reserve percentage .
Corruption becomes endemic . Note how the two go together .
If there are too many holidays , bureaucratic bloat sets in .
The bottom levels of the organization function efficiently . They eventually dispose of the top-heavy bureaucracy . (Also called a revolution.) . Then they fall prey to being too efficient as set out above .
And so it goes .
Ever noticed that the only Empires that successfully limited their expansion
(Egyptian , Roman and Chinese) rigorously enforced holidays (mostly religious) . The Romans were the richest in their heyday , and even slaves shared in the holidays . Like the licence of Roman women not to cook or grind wheat , this just fuelled the machine to get more slaves . But with enormous reserves when needed .
Towards the end of the Western Roman Empire , interesting things happened to the latifundia slaves . As their markets dried up and everybody became Christianised in a welter of hope or despair (depending on your social position) , the latifundia slaves (by now servus had become as non-PC as the k-word in SA) became villains (attached to the villa) . They had little to do , since the transport and monetary systems for their specialized agricultural produce (wine,olives,olive oil,wheat) had collapsed . So the church had a religious holiday for every day . To match this , they had to have an inflation of saints and martyrs .
Andre
Andre Willers
5 Sept 2008
Holidays , dearly beloved by any working stiff .
But why do we have them at all ?
Why have potentially productive workers idle ?
The key concept is “Reserves” .
Societies that have survived the stress of wars , droughts , floods and other disasters must have reserves . But they must also use their capital efficiently .
The balance between these two competing needs have been addressed in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes” , “Infinite Probes 2” , “Reserves” , etc
It was shown that the most efficient reserves lie in the range 27% - 37% , with an average of 33% .
(This is for Beth(0) random fluctuations . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” and “Orders of Randomness 2” )
Three methods of Reserves are shown and one projected future possibility :
1.Holidays .
Workers on holiday are a reserve . In times of stress , they can be called into service .
“All hands to the wheel” (or pump as the case may be) .
For more , see appendix A below .
2.Inefficiency
This has two major drawbacks :
2.1Changing an efficient system into an efficient one has a long lead time .
Your country can be overrun before you can get into gear (eg Russia vs Nazi’s and Russia vs USA )
2.2 Too much efficiency .
Goldblatt (“The goal”) showed decisively how the conglomerates of the 1960’s foundered on this reef .
They strived to make every component of a manufacturing line 100% efficient . But random fluctuations could not be prevented . Thus huge inventories of obsolescent parts built up between the manufacturing stages , hampering innovation and eating up capital in storage costs .
This was compensated for by “Just In Time” (JIT) processes . But now there was insufficient inventories to handle shocks like oil-price fluctuations , wars , etc .
Note that money (Capital) is just another commodity .
3. Futures markets.
Reserves in the future .
The futures markets evolved to handle this , but there is a fundamental difference in the lead-time for material commodities (ie oil , iron ,etc) and Money , which can move at electronic speeds .
The theory only made provision for Beth(0) orders of randomness , and the whole thing became unstuck when higher orders of randomness became involved because of feedback mechanism involving humans .
During periods of reasonable equilibrium , the globalized system works ok . But if ANY part of it fluctuates by more than 67% , the whole system becomes unstable because of the varying lag-rates between the components of the system .
This is what happened in 2008 .
The destabilizer seems to have been bio-fuels disturbing the food-prices over the critical thresholds and exacerbating low food-reserves . The whole shebang then went unstable . Even oil , which was not the primary destabilizer . This went up steeply(destabilized) about a year after the food-prices started rocketing.
Everything is interlocked and extremely difficult to unravel at less than AI(3.1) level .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “AI-1”)
This system does stabilize after a time , but parts of it might go over tipping points into different attractors (usually war and anarchy , like Sudan and Somalia) .
Collapse of Complex Societies .(Tainter)
These collapsed in the past essentially because of their inability to manage reserves .
They were not complex enough . (Did not have enough Mathematics)
They never even got to the JIT stage .
Present society is at least one level past that , and has a proven resilience (WWII) .
4.FutureX
The markets and systems are presently evolving a system that will smooth the problems in the futures market , or at least decrease the draw-downs and severities of the fluctuations .
This is a process that will never end , since the knowledge of how to buffer the effects of self-interest of a part of a system is in an arms-race with this same self-interest .
It will probably involve buffering the lag-times between different commodities .Eg between money and wheat . This is at present rather primitively handled by closing-out dates for futures . A simple mechanism like different futures closing-dates is far from perfect , but better than the present system that treats a dollar of wheat the same as a dollar of Rubles .
This effectively adds a second dimension to monetary systems . But this has already been done to a degree by compound interest (Bonds) .
A promising route is the markets in future events now being run on the Internet .
The theory is that a market is a better predictor than theory .
Add some attempt at a theory of feedback systems like
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” , “Orders of Randomness 2”
to give a better idea of the probability of an event .
A fusion of the above markets might be fruitful .
Appendix A
Holidays
From http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes”
We expect a reserve of 27%- 37% , with an average of 33% .
We put some actual numbers on it .
We look at Western Countries .(RSA , USA , EU)
There are 365 days in a year .
Take Saturdays and Sundays as holidays .
This leaves 365 – 2x52 =261 days .
Take a further 10 public holidays = 251 days left .
Total holidays = 114 (=365-251)
This is 31.2% (= 114/365 x100)
Add a further 14 days leave for the compulsory leave at Shops and Offices level .
This is 35.1% (= 128/365 x100)
Average = 33.15% (= (31.2+35.1)/2 )
This concerns the largest part of the work force .
Add a further 14 days leave for the supervisory extra leave .
This is 38.9% (= 142/365 x100)
These evolved for reasonably efficient work-forces .
What is amazing that these holidays are called different things (usually religious) in different societies , but the percentage in successful societies are more or less 33% for the majority of the population .
Sumerian , Babylonian , Assyrian , Roman , Medieval , Modern .
As we expect , since that is the optimal reserve for a successful Beth(0) society .
( A Beth(0) society is subject mainly to random fluctuations of the order of flipping a coin . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” , “Orders of Randomness 2” )
Danger:
Human social systems are deep-optimized for 67% working days and 33% holidays .
The Paleolithic Human Social Contract .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Is the Atkins diet evolutionary compatible?”
From the diet table it follows that about a third of work on hunting gets about 95% of the kCal .
Trying to run societies outside these boundaries in non-emergency conditions lead to all sorts of horrible things .
If there are too few holidays , inefficiency increases to the point of paralysis .
The system tries to conserve the reserve percentage .
Corruption becomes endemic . Note how the two go together .
If there are too many holidays , bureaucratic bloat sets in .
The bottom levels of the organization function efficiently . They eventually dispose of the top-heavy bureaucracy . (Also called a revolution.) . Then they fall prey to being too efficient as set out above .
And so it goes .
Ever noticed that the only Empires that successfully limited their expansion
(Egyptian , Roman and Chinese) rigorously enforced holidays (mostly religious) . The Romans were the richest in their heyday , and even slaves shared in the holidays . Like the licence of Roman women not to cook or grind wheat , this just fuelled the machine to get more slaves . But with enormous reserves when needed .
Towards the end of the Western Roman Empire , interesting things happened to the latifundia slaves . As their markets dried up and everybody became Christianised in a welter of hope or despair (depending on your social position) , the latifundia slaves (by now servus had become as non-PC as the k-word in SA) became villains (attached to the villa) . They had little to do , since the transport and monetary systems for their specialized agricultural produce (wine,olives,olive oil,wheat) had collapsed . So the church had a religious holiday for every day . To match this , they had to have an inflation of saints and martyrs .
Andre
The Concept of Reserves .
The Concept of Reserves .
Andre Willers an email dated 26/4/2008
What reserves buy is time .
Time to fix the problems .
Of course civilizations reach breakpoints . The last century had three major breakpoints : W W I (the destruction of aristocracies) , W W II (the destruction of fascism , which can be seen as nascent aristocracies forming in the vacuum left by WWI) and the Collapse of Communism (W W III) . Another viewpoint is that fascism and communism were both fall-back positions to earlier paradigms , but could not compete against capitalism .
The present world position might appear superficially as a victory for the capitalist camp , but in real fact the two major power blocks (EU , China) are an amalgam of socialist and capitalist systems . Even the US has major socialist elements , and is having serious problems with its unregulated capitalist components .(Cf Enron)
Complicating things are the JIT (Just In Time) camp .
"Time is Money" is a concept not in the ancient lexicons . There were no time-and-motion studies on building Stonehenge or the Pyramids . The very question is meaningless .It took as long as it took .
"Time is Money" derives from the circular velocity of money . Institutions takes a cut everytime a buck passes . In ancient societies the buck only passed once . It then vanished into a value sink (the Royal Coffers usually , or simply buried) . They were well aware of the dangers of a middle class .Note previous posts on treasure burial (not meant to be recovered) in Ancient Egypt . China allowed merchants only on the class slightly above warriors .The currency was very tightly controlled .The idea was not to maximise the slice of each transaction , but to stabilise the society .
The price was stagnation of innovation .
The aristocracy's major function was to regulate long-term things (hence Senate or House of Lords) . The loss of aristocracy must be the most deletrious effect of W W I . Short term gain then gets control of societies assets . Populists and liars have a heyday .
Historically this has happened over and over . The systems have learned to a certain extent . Organised religions are systems regulating long-term things . (Nothing gets longer term than death) Hence the influence of the Roman Catholic Church , Islam , Buddhism ,etc . These systems have evolved to carry over civilization after a catastrophic collapse .
What has this to do with today?
Short-term concentration on profits has led to a massive run-down of society's reserves . Food reserves , maintenance of infrastructure (which a form of wealth) , zero-sum hedging (which is plundering future wealth) , bubbles here and bubbles there .Like a bunch of children playing in a soap-bath and crying to adults to fix it when the water dries out .
Will populations decrease drastically ?
Almost certainly yes . Probability 85%
It is happening as we speak . The food riots have been long predicted . These are not from systemic problems . The world has simply run out of enough food to supply everybody , especially those making no effort to control their numbers or to do even subsistence farming .
The children have been fed only on sweets , and now is stomach ache time .
You see, if there are sufficient reserves , when if the system breaks down due to over-complexification , there is sufficient time to reconfigure the system . Humans are very good at emergency systems if they can survive long enough .
What is happening now is a perfect storm scenario . Nations that export food (like Vietnam to Filipines) are putting panic export bans in place . They are not sure of getting paid , because of the global credit limitations caused by futures market activities .
This is reminiscent of the Great Depression , when exports came to halt for the same reason . If trade ceases , millions will starve . Literally . I have discussed this ad nauseam before . The overpopulation belts (Africa , Middle East , India , Indonesia , Filipines , Mexico , South America - mostly Roman Catholic or Islamic countries which have not made the least effort to curb their population growth .)
Pockets of survivors form in various countries .
Why do I rate the probabilty of drastic population decrease as only 85% ? The Club of Rome and other interested organizations would rate it at 99.9% .
Because the horse might learn to sing .
Because of the unsung heroes who keep the civilization going . The guys at NSA who prevented nuclear war in 1991 . The teachers and healers . The best of the species , who are actually the majority . Things could be much , much worse . You would not believe the time-lines that hive off after 1815 .
But , mainly because humans are lucky . Lucky to survive the leopards . Lucky to survive the other homonins . Lucky to survive Toba . Lucky to survive the various plagues . Especially lucky with the 1918 flu epidemic , a real show-stopper . By rights , it should have exterminated humans . A cynic might say that God is looking after them.
That's the good news . The bad news is 90% extermination levels are acceptable . But , hey , remember , the human mortality rate is 100 % . 6 billion alive now , 6 billion dead in a few years . What counts is the gene and meme transmissions to give the illusion of meaning to the flickering lives .
Humans are social animals , defining themselves by the herd .Hence solitary confinement is considered a harsh punishment . But many humans (hermits , mountainmen ) fancy a lonely life . Yet the knowledge of the species outside remains . How many could maintain their sang-freud if they were the last and only of the species ? This question has been answered on a large scale : This is the Norse religion , where Gotterdammerung awaits and everybody ceases to exist .
In one of those delicious human ironies , one would expect them to be extremely short-term in outlook . But in real life , they thought in terms of lineages and dynasties . The conservation of game and forests in England was due to this outlook , compared to the Roman exploitation in Gaul . If this was the only real life , your influence can only be felt through your descendants . A Christian or Buddhist would try to buy his way into heaven by actions . A Norman only hoped to give his descendants an easier life . They had no salvation . No wonder the Christians won . But they kept the conservation principles .
Would you keep on fighting , even knowing for certain that you will lose ? Keep on when there is no hope ?
Even if you are the last of your species in some alien zoo ? and no belief in afterlife?
Can humans have a balanced ecology ?
Yes .
We know this because it has been done very successfully on at least three occasions:
1.Egypt .For about 3 000 years the narrow strip around the Nile has nurtured a civilization that gave us the alfabet and the compund bow , plus other goodies . Hi-tech.
2.Holland : Population remained stable during collapse of the Western Roman Empire . Nobody messed with them either (the Huns steered well south .) Masters of the Knights and Castles defence . Even 1000 years later the super-power of the time (Spain) , powered by literally thousands of tons of gold and silver , could not reduce them .
3. Let us not forget China . They have been farming the same strips for at least 3 000 years . Even an immediate collapse will still leave some survivors . That is if the major rivers are not poisened by radioactive pollution .
Others like Papua-NewGuinea and some obscure islands have been nominated . But they survived by contraction , not what we would call a worthhile existence .
Andre
PS
Females and fat : the generally accepted range for healthy female aged 20-59 is 21%-34% . The reason is that woman are at the choke point of human reproduction . Human males of the same age are 8%-22% . But of course , males are throw-away . The evolutionary choke-point are the females . And every extra erg helps .
Zaftig wins as far as reproduction goes .
An interesting note here is the "giow" of an expectant mother . This is actually a symptom of sulfur deficiency . The body extracts sulfur from the skin and hair to construct the cells of the foetus . The skin gets thinner and seems to be translucent(glowing) . The same effect is seen in TB , to construct lung tissue coughed up . All that material does not come from nowhere , you know . If somneone has TB , pump in large amounts biologically active sulfur compounds . The body can usually repair itself if it has the raw materials . else it deserves to die .
There is a double whammy if the female then is exposed to UVB (sunlight) . The skin is too thin to prevent folic acid breakdown . The result is spontaneous abortion as foetus abnormalities trigger rejection mechanisms. The answer is to stay out of the sun . Even taking MSM or Folic Acid supplements are not sufficient .
Why ? Because even minor fluctuations of folic acid below the right level results in in spontaneous abortions . Hence all the kappies . For women without artificial protection (read native blacks) , the skin pigmentation gave some protection but it was still part of the eco-system's protection mechanism preventing runaway population growth of a too-successful organism .
Bah . Sometimes evolution can be quite depressing .
Andre Willers an email dated 26/4/2008
What reserves buy is time .
Time to fix the problems .
Of course civilizations reach breakpoints . The last century had three major breakpoints : W W I (the destruction of aristocracies) , W W II (the destruction of fascism , which can be seen as nascent aristocracies forming in the vacuum left by WWI) and the Collapse of Communism (W W III) . Another viewpoint is that fascism and communism were both fall-back positions to earlier paradigms , but could not compete against capitalism .
The present world position might appear superficially as a victory for the capitalist camp , but in real fact the two major power blocks (EU , China) are an amalgam of socialist and capitalist systems . Even the US has major socialist elements , and is having serious problems with its unregulated capitalist components .(Cf Enron)
Complicating things are the JIT (Just In Time) camp .
"Time is Money" is a concept not in the ancient lexicons . There were no time-and-motion studies on building Stonehenge or the Pyramids . The very question is meaningless .It took as long as it took .
"Time is Money" derives from the circular velocity of money . Institutions takes a cut everytime a buck passes . In ancient societies the buck only passed once . It then vanished into a value sink (the Royal Coffers usually , or simply buried) . They were well aware of the dangers of a middle class .Note previous posts on treasure burial (not meant to be recovered) in Ancient Egypt . China allowed merchants only on the class slightly above warriors .The currency was very tightly controlled .The idea was not to maximise the slice of each transaction , but to stabilise the society .
The price was stagnation of innovation .
The aristocracy's major function was to regulate long-term things (hence Senate or House of Lords) . The loss of aristocracy must be the most deletrious effect of W W I . Short term gain then gets control of societies assets . Populists and liars have a heyday .
Historically this has happened over and over . The systems have learned to a certain extent . Organised religions are systems regulating long-term things . (Nothing gets longer term than death) Hence the influence of the Roman Catholic Church , Islam , Buddhism ,etc . These systems have evolved to carry over civilization after a catastrophic collapse .
What has this to do with today?
Short-term concentration on profits has led to a massive run-down of society's reserves . Food reserves , maintenance of infrastructure (which a form of wealth) , zero-sum hedging (which is plundering future wealth) , bubbles here and bubbles there .Like a bunch of children playing in a soap-bath and crying to adults to fix it when the water dries out .
Will populations decrease drastically ?
Almost certainly yes . Probability 85%
It is happening as we speak . The food riots have been long predicted . These are not from systemic problems . The world has simply run out of enough food to supply everybody , especially those making no effort to control their numbers or to do even subsistence farming .
The children have been fed only on sweets , and now is stomach ache time .
You see, if there are sufficient reserves , when if the system breaks down due to over-complexification , there is sufficient time to reconfigure the system . Humans are very good at emergency systems if they can survive long enough .
What is happening now is a perfect storm scenario . Nations that export food (like Vietnam to Filipines) are putting panic export bans in place . They are not sure of getting paid , because of the global credit limitations caused by futures market activities .
This is reminiscent of the Great Depression , when exports came to halt for the same reason . If trade ceases , millions will starve . Literally . I have discussed this ad nauseam before . The overpopulation belts (Africa , Middle East , India , Indonesia , Filipines , Mexico , South America - mostly Roman Catholic or Islamic countries which have not made the least effort to curb their population growth .)
Pockets of survivors form in various countries .
Why do I rate the probabilty of drastic population decrease as only 85% ? The Club of Rome and other interested organizations would rate it at 99.9% .
Because the horse might learn to sing .
Because of the unsung heroes who keep the civilization going . The guys at NSA who prevented nuclear war in 1991 . The teachers and healers . The best of the species , who are actually the majority . Things could be much , much worse . You would not believe the time-lines that hive off after 1815 .
But , mainly because humans are lucky . Lucky to survive the leopards . Lucky to survive the other homonins . Lucky to survive Toba . Lucky to survive the various plagues . Especially lucky with the 1918 flu epidemic , a real show-stopper . By rights , it should have exterminated humans . A cynic might say that God is looking after them.
That's the good news . The bad news is 90% extermination levels are acceptable . But , hey , remember , the human mortality rate is 100 % . 6 billion alive now , 6 billion dead in a few years . What counts is the gene and meme transmissions to give the illusion of meaning to the flickering lives .
Humans are social animals , defining themselves by the herd .Hence solitary confinement is considered a harsh punishment . But many humans (hermits , mountainmen ) fancy a lonely life . Yet the knowledge of the species outside remains . How many could maintain their sang-freud if they were the last and only of the species ? This question has been answered on a large scale : This is the Norse religion , where Gotterdammerung awaits and everybody ceases to exist .
In one of those delicious human ironies , one would expect them to be extremely short-term in outlook . But in real life , they thought in terms of lineages and dynasties . The conservation of game and forests in England was due to this outlook , compared to the Roman exploitation in Gaul . If this was the only real life , your influence can only be felt through your descendants . A Christian or Buddhist would try to buy his way into heaven by actions . A Norman only hoped to give his descendants an easier life . They had no salvation . No wonder the Christians won . But they kept the conservation principles .
Would you keep on fighting , even knowing for certain that you will lose ? Keep on when there is no hope ?
Even if you are the last of your species in some alien zoo ? and no belief in afterlife?
Can humans have a balanced ecology ?
Yes .
We know this because it has been done very successfully on at least three occasions:
1.Egypt .For about 3 000 years the narrow strip around the Nile has nurtured a civilization that gave us the alfabet and the compund bow , plus other goodies . Hi-tech.
2.Holland : Population remained stable during collapse of the Western Roman Empire . Nobody messed with them either (the Huns steered well south .) Masters of the Knights and Castles defence . Even 1000 years later the super-power of the time (Spain) , powered by literally thousands of tons of gold and silver , could not reduce them .
3. Let us not forget China . They have been farming the same strips for at least 3 000 years . Even an immediate collapse will still leave some survivors . That is if the major rivers are not poisened by radioactive pollution .
Others like Papua-NewGuinea and some obscure islands have been nominated . But they survived by contraction , not what we would call a worthhile existence .
Andre
PS
Females and fat : the generally accepted range for healthy female aged 20-59 is 21%-34% . The reason is that woman are at the choke point of human reproduction . Human males of the same age are 8%-22% . But of course , males are throw-away . The evolutionary choke-point are the females . And every extra erg helps .
Zaftig wins as far as reproduction goes .
An interesting note here is the "giow" of an expectant mother . This is actually a symptom of sulfur deficiency . The body extracts sulfur from the skin and hair to construct the cells of the foetus . The skin gets thinner and seems to be translucent(glowing) . The same effect is seen in TB , to construct lung tissue coughed up . All that material does not come from nowhere , you know . If somneone has TB , pump in large amounts biologically active sulfur compounds . The body can usually repair itself if it has the raw materials . else it deserves to die .
There is a double whammy if the female then is exposed to UVB (sunlight) . The skin is too thin to prevent folic acid breakdown . The result is spontaneous abortion as foetus abnormalities trigger rejection mechanisms. The answer is to stay out of the sun . Even taking MSM or Folic Acid supplements are not sufficient .
Why ? Because even minor fluctuations of folic acid below the right level results in in spontaneous abortions . Hence all the kappies . For women without artificial protection (read native blacks) , the skin pigmentation gave some protection but it was still part of the eco-system's protection mechanism preventing runaway population growth of a too-successful organism .
Bah . Sometimes evolution can be quite depressing .
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