Stable Transuranic Elements.

Stable Transuranic Elements

Andre Willers

21 Feb 2015

Synopsis :

Stable Transuranic elements start with Element 194 . Mineable concentrations on Luna and Mars .

Discussion :

1.The usual Physics kludge of assumptions and approximations is used .

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-empirical_mass_formula

“In nuclear physics, the semi-empirical mass formula (SEMF) (sometimes also called Weizsäcker's formula, or the Bethe-Weizsäcker formula, or the Bethe-Weizsäcker mass formula to distinguish it from the Bethe–Weizsäcker process) is used to approximate the mass and various other properties of an atomic nucleus from its number of protons and neutrons. As the name suggests, it is based partly on theory and partly on empirical measurements. The theory is based on the liquid drop model proposed by George Gamow, which can account for most of the terms in the formula and gives rough estimates for the values of the coefficients. It was first formulated in 1935 by German physicist Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker, and although refinements have been made to the coefficients over the years, the structure of the formula remains the same today.[1][2]

The SEMF gives a good approximation for atomic masses and several other effects, but does not explain the appearance of magic numbers of protons and neutrons, and the extra binding-energy and measure of stability that are associated with these numbers of nucleons.”

2.We derive as a first approximation

Z=N/(1+k*N^(2/3))

Where Z =number of protons , N= number of neutrons , k~0.01539

3.Do a spreadsheet .

Z ,N , diff(1), diff(2) , …, diff(6)

 

4.Pockets of stability would be where diff(n) switches sign between rows .

This happens at diff(6) for this simplified formula .

5.The first pocket of stability is found at

  Z            N

194       340

195       342

Thereafter more regularly :

   Z           N

202       360

203       362

203       364

204      366

205      369

Etc

6.These are hyperexplosives .

Thus unlikely to be found in small , rocky planets .

Fratricidal effects . They have a small basin of stability .

7.Supernovas

These would create these elements , but spread them in clouds .

Sooner or later these would condensate , and gamma-ray bursters would occur as fratricide occurs .

8.Or large nuclear explosions from inside small , rocky planets .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2013/08/blue-smokers.html

9.Mars :

Mons Olympus et al .

This would indicate that the asteroid belt has an inordinately high percentage of transuranics .

But the screes of the Olympus series of volcanoes on Mars should have useful concentrations of transuranics .

10.Or make them at home .

Very expensive . Cheaper to mine them on Luna

11. The Moon .

Re-examine that old moon rock of yours for transuranics . Nobody looked before .

http://www.psrd.hawaii.edu/CosmoSparks/July12/Lunar-rock-densities.html

Note the high density , which is Fe at the bottom of the nucleonic packing curve masking higher elements .

12. Earth ?

Magma plumes . At the bottom lies a high density transuranic body slowly decaying .

Look at Hawaii , Reunion island ,   

12.1 Siberian traps .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

Consider that humans got it 180 degrees reversed as usual .

The explosion came from inside the planet , from the same source of transuranics that created the Siberian traps .

The bolide was then ejecta .

In any case , the energy release (~30 Mt) was too high for an atmospheric bolide .

So , there should be a smoking gun . And there is :

https://piccolaeraglaciale.wordpress.com/category/metano/page/2/

  The exit crater , heavy with transuranics and poisonous to terrestrial life .

Do not go near without full hazmat gear and radionics gear into the gamma range .

Transuranically yours

Andre

xxxxxxxxxxxx

NeoViking Swiss Bank Raids.

NeoViking Swiss Bank Raids.

Andre Willers

19 Feb 2015

Synopsis :

Swiss banks haven’t been raided for a long time . Banks on or near lakes are no longer secure  from NeoVikings .

 

Discussion :

1.See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2015/02/neoviking-private-navies.html

As states break down , they cannot pay their special units anymore .

These go freelance . See Appendix A

2.Contingency plans :

If the UK Special forces had contingency plans to get access to Beirut banking vaults ,

then present day US and EU forces have the same concerning Swiss vaults .

 

3.Rogue units use these plans and resources to use Force Majeure to smash their way into Swiss vaults , hold them militarily while they strip them , and get the loot out using swarm drones ,both aerial and submarine .

4.The banks rely too much on national defence forces to prevent , deter and catch .

When states break down , these same forces join the raiders .

In the Swiss case , see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2012/06/swiss-and-afghan.html

The Swiss banks have broken the Oath of Rutli .

They aid the burners of barns .

The Armed Forces are starting to look out for their personal interests .

 

5. The technical detail can be seen in See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2015/02/neoviking-private-navies.html

6.A delicious filip :

I wonder which state will first issue a Letter of Marque to traffic on the Swiss Lakes ?

Or privateer hovercraft (See appendix B) .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_of_marque

ISIS , of course , but after Grexit probably Greece , Spain , Italy ,Ukraine , etc .

You see what I mean by things falling apart ?

And Switzerland is Bankster Central .

Something like the Spanish Main in the 16^th century . Fair game .

“Grasping all , they lose all”

Andre

xxxxxxxx

Appendix A

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-459185/Soldiers-Fortune.html

Most believable explanation , mostly because not a trace of the loot was ever found . The standard explanation is the PLO , but they leak like a sieve .

“In 1976, a crack team blasted its way into Beirut's British Bank of The Middle East and stole gold bars worth £100 million at today's prices; the world's biggest bank heist. With the robbers never found, who was responsible? “

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Appendix B

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Peissel

How to use hovercraft in Tibet and Switzerland .

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NeoViking Private Navies .

NeoViking Private Navies

Andre Willers

17 Feb 2015

Synopsis :

As social collapse accelerates , private navies are appearing . Soon to morph into NeoVikings as support structures evaporate .

 

Discussion :

1.The inability of national navies to ensure the safety of their maritime merchants have led to the re-establishment of mercenary marines , private navies and mercenary naval drones .

See

Private Navies:

http://www.amazon.com/Private-Anti-Piracy-Navies-Warships-Changing/dp/0739173324

http://warontherocks.com/2014/09/maritime-mercenaries-or-innovative-defense-private-security-the-evolving-piracy-threat/

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/india-ship-seaman-ohio-advanfort-tuticorin-514378

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2270223/Private-security-group-Typhon-assembles-private-navy-protect-Indian-Ocean-shipping-Somali-pirates.html

Mercenary Marines :

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/12/us-somalia-piracy-idUSBRE91B19Y20130212

Drones :

http://atacglobal.com/atac-anti-piracy-drone-uav-advantage/

http://blog.navaldrones.com/2014/11/private-security-drones-for-anti-piracy.html

Forget private airforces . Drones will rule the skies .

Expect major innovations in aerial drones like what happened with the Viking Longship .(See Below)

Super-cavitating drones .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VA-111_Shkval

The VA-111 Shkval (from Russian: шквал — squall) torpedo and its descendants are supercavitating torpedoes developed by the Soviet Union. They are capable of speeds in excess of 200 knots (370 km/h).[1]

It’s noisy , but a drone or drone launch can make it survivable .

Expect this technology to become commonplace and cheap .

Nukes :

Tactical nukes will be widely available as contractors or professional soldiers are no longer paid due to financial collapse .

 

2.As social collapse continues , the progression is mercenaries , privateers , pirates , NeoVikings .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/02/neo-vikings.html

This happened with the collapse of the Bronze Age civilization , Western Roman empire , various Chinese dynasties , Spanish Empire , French Empire , American empire , etc .

3. Elite Rats .

The sociopaths who end up as oligarchs in a collapsing society sees the collapse coming and scuttles for bolt-holes  , storing their loot in handy , concentrated form . Ideal for NeoVikings .

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-26/middle-class-evaporates-global-oligarchs-plan-their-escape-form-impoverished-pleb-ma

They will be hunted mercilessly .

They will be perceived as having more than half the wealth of the planet , and also the source of the collapse .

Island strongholds are usually the first to fall to NeoViking fleets . Even places like Fort Knox won’t be secure .  A few tactical nukes will take out any guarding forces , leaving the gold in the vaults intact . Same for New York .

Which is why most of this gold has already been moved .

4.An interesting bolt-hole that worked for a while : Ireland with the collapse of the Western Roman Empire .

Rich Romans , mostly from North Africa , fled to Ireland .

The influx of wealth stimulated the Irish Renaissance .

They survived fairly well until the Vikings because of the vertically integrated company structure of the monasteries .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2012/03/monasteries.html

And the oligarchs ended up as abbots . Delicious irony .

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/ancientireland/fortress.html

“Irish Christianity gradually developed a monastic system similar in style to the rural society at the time. Abbots, and not bishops, held the power and, eventually, the wealth.

The monasteries soon became indistinguishable from Irish secular society. They were family-owned and the abbots were usually married men who passed the monastery along to the next generation. They were also major centers of scholarship and learning. This was the great age of the independent Irish church. As Roman power declined and Europe fell prey to invading barbarians, Irish monks traveled abroad and brought the light of Christianity to the Dark Ages. They were in a unique position to do so because in Ireland, unlike Europe, scholarship flourished during this time. St. Colmcille, also known as Columba, founded a monastery on the island of Iona off the west coast of Scotland and his mission converted the northern part of Britain. St. Columbanus left Ireland to establish numerous monasteries on the European continent and traveled as far as Bobbio, in Italy, where he died in 615. His monastery at Luxeuil is said to have spawned about 100 other monasteries in the region. Columbanus and his fellow Irish monks are credited with playing a major role in the re-conversion of Europe to Christianity in the Dark Ages.”

 

5. How did the Vikings find them ?

Because they knew they were there .

The Norse learned and perfected clinker riverboat building by building riverboats under contract from the Batavians (present Netherlands) . (The Netherlands is not known for it’s timber , but they were excellent shipwrights and canal builders . They built Caesar’s invasion fleets)

These boats were ideal for river of or canal use and is still used for this purpose .

The Romans were the end-users. Riverboats were the main mass bulk carriers in the Roman Empire .

With the demise of the Western Roman Empire , this market disappeared .

The Irish were known as old Roman customers , and they also obligingly advertised their presence by missionaries .

Peaceful but desperate boatwrights morphed into Vikings  and the riverboat morphed into the Viking Longship .

Still essentially a riverboat . Note how the Vikings navigated the rivers of Europe and Russia .

The results are well known .

A Thames river clinker boat . A Viking would have felt right at home .

6. Viking is derived from the Old Norse “vic” , meaning a creek or small river .

“He’s gone a-viking” would then mean he sailed off in a riverboat , usually to raid or trade .

The Latin “Viccingi” seems to indicate the same .

Times rapidly coming to a civilization near you .

Andre

xxxxxxxxxxxx

Inside an Economic Crash

Inside an Economic Crash

Andre Willers

15 Feb 2015

Synopsis:

The Real world economic system started crashing on the west coast USA in Feb 2015 . Just another repeat .

Discussion :

0.A Real Economic Crash .

This is when goods or services are not available at any price .

The Civilization Chain breaks down .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2005/09/collapse-of-civilizations.html for a previous instance .

1.The four sphincters that clamped down :

1.1 Insurance

Uninsurability destroyed an Empire and Industry . See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2009/03/featherfall.html

The perils of Just In Time production  .

The value of a JIT item rapidly drops to zero after it’s sell-by-date . Thus becomes uninsurable . Thus no carrier (ship or land) will take the risk . It all grinds to  a halt , which is happening now .

Systemic breakdown , which cannot be fixed by printing more paper money .

1.2 Labor Unions .

The cost of the difference between the real economy  and the financial money printing is being borne by the middle and working class as shit flows downhill . This has now surfaced as shutdown of Just-in-time supply chains on the Western US seaboard . See Appendix A .

1.3 Declining demand .

Due to a number of factors :

1.3.1 Green :Small is beautiful . The Death of Growth . Declining population .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/06/the-quiet-revolution.html

Actual less consumption . Desperate state monopolies are legally penalizing people who want to consume less .

See http://www.collective-evolution.com/2014/03/09/florida-makes-off-grid-living-illegal-mandates-all-homes-must-be-connected-to-an-electricity-grid/

1.3.2 Capital shift to Health Carers due to longer lives costing more money .

The money a family had accumulated(capital) is now spent on keeping a decrepit alive .

So , little Johnny has to take a McJob and stay at home with mommy  so that granny can eke out a miserable last few years in an Oligarch’s facility .

1.3.3 Stupidity

Humans aren’t naturally smart enough to pay their own way in a high-tech society .

But there ways to become smarter .

See

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/09/prodigies-update-i.html

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/10/prodigies-update-ii.html

1.4  War .

They have learned nothing . http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2009/04/first-world-war.html

And now about to repeat the whole thing with nuclear weapons . In the name of stimulating the economy .

 

2. What will happen ?

Trade will lock up tighter than a camel’s arse in the fly season .

2.1 You already saw a shadow of it in the 2008 crisis , when banks put their own interests ahead of the society .

Expect dumping of luxury globalised items (like wines , fancy foods , genetically modified foods , out-of-season foods , etc)

2.2 Roman Empire seize-up : http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2008/03/amphorae-roman-containerization.html

2.3Another way of looking at it :

If it’s not grown within about 100 miles , forget it .

http://www.cuesa.org/learn/how-far-does-your-food-travel-get-your-plate

Average Distances from Farm to Market

Terminal Market vs. Ferry Plaza Farmers Market

Apples: 1,555 miles vs. 105 miles

Tomatoes: 1,369 miles vs. 117 miles

Grapes: 2,143 miles vs. 151 miles

Beans: 766 miles vs. 101 miles

Peaches: 1,674 miles vs. 184 miles

Winter Squash: 781 miles vs. 98 miles

Greens: 889 miles vs. 99 miles

Lettuce: 2,055 miles vs. 102 miles

 

3. The survivors : Bringing home the bacon , lean and mean .

 

4.What does it all mean ?

”Where are they ?” Fermi .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox about intelligent lifeforms .

At home . Where they belong .

A question they will ask about humans .

You are seeing the effects right now . Uncontrolled growth leads to death .

Civilizations that cannot handle this , doesn’t even make it off-planet .

 5.Post-Apocalyptic minefield .

It means that planets with surviving populations usually have defences in depth not accessible to the inhabitants .

A variant of the Castles and Knight Defence . Any roving band of interstellar  freebooters will get their heads handed to them pdq .

These defences get activated in ascending order .

6.It also means that Terra has ancient quiescent defensive and offensive weapon systems .

Not very old , either .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2015/01/vajra-as-functional-weapons.html

A supervolcano like Yellowstone has energy yields in the order of 10^17 Joules .

A megaton of tnt ~ 10^15 Joules  .

So , expect war energies bigger than 100 megatons of TNT to trigger ancient defensive systems , with unpredictable results .

This to prevent false alarms due to natural disasters .

The old USSR must have gotten the fright of it’s life when it tested its 50 megaton Tsar Bomb and ancient weapons came to life .

Note that nobody has tried it since . They were lucky as it was.

7. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba .

When many old weapon systems partially activated . In Australia of all places . Surat Basin .

It seems to be directed graviton particle beams .

Or , if you prefer , Stimulated Emission of Higgs Particles (SEHP)

Look at seismic records of October 1961 .

https://www.google.co.za/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CDYQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ga.gov.au%2Fcorporate_data%2F11511%2FRec1965_058.pdf&ei=x9HgVLWXEoKAUdqbgMgF&usg=AFQjCNG6YPebjvejDBb6nXJDor326SJNeg

·         There were lots of anomalies .

·         www.ga.gov.au/corporate_data/11511/Rec1965_058.pdf

•  
• gravity data with the results of a seismic survey made previously in the same ... surface Tertiary flows), the depth analysis of the anomalies that result from this .... 11th October 1961 and returned to Melbourne on 11th November 1961.

Vajra-type weapons : Mothball central

Look at flat topped large hills with big scree fields .

They would be stealthed , but up close there should be gravitic and magnetic anomalies .

Lots of beta radiation from Fe60 . You will have to dig a bit .

Actually a good place to mothball radioactive nuclear pulse ships .

The data is all there , but in true human tradition it simply got ignored .

Radioactive iron after 5 000 years should still have Fe(60) with halflife  of 2.6x10^6 years .

It is a beta emitter , so use http://www.radpro.com/PANCAKE.pdf

Or just buy it for about $137 http://www.amazon.com/GQ-GMC-300-Radiation-Detector-Detection/dp/B006X3WNLC

Find your own spaceship in the Surat Basin .

And good luck  to all .

8.Footage from a Soviet documentary about the bomb is featured in Trinity and Beyond: ... "Moscow's Biggest Bomb: the 50-Megaton Test of October 1961" (PDF).

9. Which continent would they target ?

 Mu ? Lemuria ? Atlantis ?  Your beach house ?

Isn’t ancient history fun ?

Especially if you die frequently .

10 . As they say at Reincarnation Central :

Amnesia costs extra .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2008/10/money.html

Salvation is free . But you have to pay for everything else .

And per gram too .

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2010/08/souls-2-and-nucluonic-packing-curve.html

11.Exchange rate between here and the here-after .

Can you take at least some percentage with you ?

Well , we have exchange rates between virtual worlds like Second Life , War games  etc.

If this locale is seen as a virtual world , then there is no reason why there should not be an exchange rate .

The parameters would have to be by mutual consent .

Something like Bitcoin springs to mind .

12 GodCoin

Call it a GodCoin .

Valid in this life and after death .

Charon accepts only GodCoins for a return trip .

Have Fun !

Andre

Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Appendix A

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-14/west-coast-ports-shut-down-holiday-weekend-supply-chain-halt-threatens-havoc-reeling

Here are some of the ways the already reeling US retail economy is now being pummeled as a result of the collapse of this weakest chokepoint in the US supply-chain infrastructure.

• Small business owners are unable to get goods on the shelf in time for long-planned merchandising programmes. Some are paying high premiums for work-arounds such as airfreight.
• Manufacturers are at risk of closing down assembly lines because they don't receive parts shipments.
• California's Central Valley growers can't get perishable agricultural exports through the marine terminals quickly and on to ships for delivery to overseas markets.
• Thousands of independent harbour truckers are doing less business — and receiving less pay — because they're often stranded in long lines awaiting cargo.  Businesses are beginning to furlough workers because their operations are stymied by cargo delays.
• Surcharges, two week delays reported: congestion in the West Coast ports is leading to longer import lead times (up to two week delays) and increased surcharges from shippers, agents, and truckers.
• According to Credit Suisse, surcharges for transport and east coast delivery are at all-time high levels (adding 75-100% to cost of shipping in some cases.)
• K line, the sixteenth largest container shipping company in the world has added $800 congestion surcharges in ports where slowdowns are occurring.
• Truckers in Long Beach and Lost Angeles have recently added $50/hour to $100/hour surcharges for shipments originating from these ports.  The average cost for Asia-U.S. shipping a twenty-foot container is approximately $750.
• Rerouting to east coast ports is time-consuming and expensive: some companies have diverted shipments to the east coast to avoid congestion on the west coast, incurring additional surcharges on top of the already more expensive and time consuming journey to Atlantic ports.

Bottom line: estimated recovery is 1 week for each day the ports are closed, and the National Reta

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Darwins Pigs

Darwins Pigs

Andre Willers

14 Feb 2015

Synopsis:

Anti-domestication of the feral porcine variety . The hidden cost of Kosher and Halaal.

Discussion :

Hi,

What happens when domestication works in reverse .

Aggression is strongly selected .

You get hippos or Cape Buffaloes instead of docile animals .

Feral domesticated pigs selected for aggression are the latest and most dangerous addition .

Humans and silver foxes .

Note the extraordinary plasticity of the genome . Seven generations is sufficient to domesticate .

There seems to be a whole epigenetic system that kow-tows .

Born with cap in hand …

Now we can do it with an aerosol spray . Perfumes of dominance .

Been done , and there are some really interesting defenses .

Professional betrayers .

Some cell-clusters produce bio-instruction molecules that are randomly close to the real thing , but has an apoptosis marker .

A sting operation .

Plants love them .

If you use plant based perfumes , you are shortening your life .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2010/12/epigenetics-and-ptsd.html

The old-fashioned way :

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2011/05/domestication-and-anti-domestication-in_7.html   

Hippo's

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2011/08/why-whales-are-so-large.html

Cape Buffalo

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2009/09/memristors-bloodpressure-and-click.html

“Bringing home the bacon …”  or vice versa .

  

  

http://modernfarmer.com/2013/04/who-can-stop-these-adorable-pigs/

This may seem like a ludicrous pitch for a doomsday blockbuster or a leftover gag from Babe: Pig in the City or an excuse to put even more bacon in our diet but the fact is, wild pigs have overrun the planet. To wit: Pig populations are nearing a million in the state of Florida, encroaching on urban areas and destroying an F-16 fighter plane in Jacksonville. Feral pigs are running (hog) wild in the streets of Berlin, with dedicated pig squads waging a losing battle to overtake them. They’ve become a fixture on the West Bank, after Israeli settlers, some say, released boars to destroy Palestinian croplands. There are even thousands of radioactive wild pigs wandering Europe, thanks to the tainted feeding grounds near Chernobyl.

The solution

  

  

If all else fails , try 

  

In an aircraft seat near you ...

  

  

It’s a bird , it’s a plane , it’s a boar in the seat next to you …

·         Subscribe

·         Contact Us

Xxxxxxx

Donate

Wild boar causes flight delays at Spain's main airport

February 14, 2015 - 10:06 AM

---

Associated Press

MADRID (AP) — Spain's airport authority says a wild boar that broke through a perimeter fence at Madrid's international airport caused runways to be shut briefly and two landings to be delayed.

The beast set off security alarms late Friday and when cameras focused on the spot, operators observed it turning around and loping off through the hole it had made.

The incident happened 100 meters (330 feet) from the nearest stretch of runway. It delayed an incoming flight from London 20 minutes and a domestic flight from A Coruna 10 minutes, the airport authority's statement said Saturday.

Newspaper El Pais reported the captain aboard Iberia flight 3179 inbound from London told passengers an animal had "surprisingly" forced him to abort a landing approach.

The hole was repaired later.

xxxxxxxx

The Last Drop.

The Last Drop.

Andre Willers

13 Feb 2015

Hi,

Civilization ending drought in Western America expected before the end of the 21^st century.

Note Mexico and meso-america in picture below .

Expect massive volkewanderungs from the South  to the North .

It will take more than a wall to keep desperate families out .

Another reason for the Occupy Ukraine movement . (See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2015/02/yellowstone-catastrophe-and-us.html )

Or else they could copy Almeria . (See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/06/the-quiet-revolution.html )

Although a similar type of approach didn't end well for the Anazazi . Desperate neighbours overwhelmed them .

The Maya simply imploded in resources wars.

Revolution is just one harvest away .

Andre

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/02/150212154527.htm

Warming pushes Western U.S. toward driest period in 1,000 years: Unprecedented risk of drought in 21st century

Date:

February 12, 2015

Source:

The Earth Institute at Columbia University

Summary:

During the second half of the 21st century, the US Southwest and Great Plains will face persistent drought worse than anything seen in times ancient or modern, with the drying conditions 'driven primarily' by human-induced global warming, a new study predicts.

Share This

---

---

Soil moisture 30 cm below ground projected through 2100 for high emissions scenario RCP 8.5. The soil moisture data are standardized to the Palmer Drought Severity Index and are deviations from the 20th century average.

Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

[Click to enlarge image]

During the second half of the 21st century, the U.S. Southwest and Great Plains will face persistent drought worse than anything seen in times ancient or modern, with the drying conditions "driven primarily" by human-induced global warming, a new study predicts.

Related Articles

---

·         IPCC Report on Climate Change - 2007

·         Attribution of recent climate change

·         Global warming

·         Sulfur hexafluoride

·         Global warming controversy

·         Effects of global warming

The research says the drying would surpass in severity any of the decades-long "megadroughts" that occurred much earlier during the past 1,000 years -- one of which has been tied by some researchers to the decline of the Anasazi or Ancient Pueblo Peoples in the Colorado Plateau in the late 13th century. Many studies have already predicted that the Southwest could dry due to global warming, but this is the first to say that such drying could exceed the worst conditions of the distant past. The impacts today would be devastating, given the region's much larger population and use of resources.

"We are the first to do this kind of quantitative comparison between the projections and the distant past, and the story is a bit bleak," said Jason E. Smerdon, a co-author and climate scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. "Even when selecting for the worst megadrought-dominated period, the 21st century projections make the megadroughts seem like quaint walks through the Garden of Eden."

"The surprising thing to us was really how consistent the response was over these regions, nearly regardless of what model we used or what soil moisture metric we looked at," said lead author Benjamin I. Cook of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. "It all showed this really, really significant drying."

The new study, "Unprecedented 21st-Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains," will be featured in the inaugural edition of the new online journal Science Advances, produced by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, which also publishes the leading journal Science.

Today, 11 of the past 14 years have been drought years in much of the American West, including California, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona and across the Southern Plains to Texas and Oklahoma, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a collaboration of U.S. government agencies.

The current drought directly affects more than64 million people in the Southwest and Southern Plains, according to NASA, and many more are indirectly affected because of the impacts on agricultural regions.

Shrinking water supplies have forced western states to impose water use restrictions; aquifers are being drawn down to unsustainable levels, and major surface reservoirs such as Lake Mead and Lake Powell are at historically low levels. This winter's snowpack in the Sierras, a major water source for Los Angeles and other cities, is less than a quarter of what authorities call a "normal" level, according to a February report from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. California water officials last year cut off the flow of water from the northern part of the state to the south, forcing farmers in the Central Valley to leave hundreds of thousands of acres unplanted.

"Changes in precipitation, temperature and drought, and the consequences it has for our society -- which is critically dependent on our freshwater resources for food, electricity and industry -- are likely to be the most immediate climate impacts we experience as a result of greenhouse gas emissions," said Kevin Anchukaitis, a climate researcher at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Anchukaitis said the findings "require us to think rather immediately about how we could and would adapt."

Much of our knowledge about past droughts comes from extensive study of tree rings conducted by Lamont-Doherty scientist Edward Cook (Benjamin's father) and others, who in 2009 created the North American Drought Atlas. The atlas recreates the history of drought over the previous 2,005 years, based on hundreds of tree-ring chronologies, gleaned in turn from tens of thousands of tree samples across the United States, Mexico and parts of Canada.

For the current study, researchers used data from the atlas to represent past climate, and applied three different measures for drought -- two soil moisture measurements at varying depths, and a version of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which gauges precipitation and evaporation and transpiration -- the net input of water into the land. While some have questioned how accurately the Palmer drought index truly reflects soil moisture, the researchers found it matched well with other measures, and that it "provides a bridge between the [climate] models and drought in observations," Cook said.

The researchers applied 17 different climate models to analyze the future impact of rising average temperatures on the regions. And, they compared two different global warming scenarios -- one with "business as usual," projecting a continued rise in emissions of the greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming; and a second scenario in which emissions are moderated.

By most of those measures, they came to the same conclusions.

"The results … are extremely unfavorable for the continuation of agricultural and water resource management as they are currently practiced in the Great Plains and southwestern United States," said David Stahle, professor in the Department of Geosciences at the University of Arkansas and director of the Tree-Ring Laboratory there. Stahle was not involved in the study, though he worked on the North American Drought Atlas.

Smerdon said he and his colleagues are confident in their results. The effects of CO₂on higher average temperature and the subsequent connection to drying in the Southwest and Great Plains emerge as a "strong signal" across the majority of the models, regardless of the drought metrics that are used, he said. And, he added, they are consistent with many previous studies.

Anchukaitis said the paper "provides an elegant and convincing connection" between reconstructions of past climate and the models pointing to the risk of future drought.

Toby R. Ault of Cornell University is a co-author of the study. Funding was provided by the NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction Program, NASA Strategic Science, and the U.S. National Science Foundation.

---

Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by The Earth Institute at Columbia University. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

---

Journal Reference:

1. Benjamin I. Cook, Toby R. Ault, Jason E. Smerdon. Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. Science Advances, 12 February 2015 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1400082
2.  

·         Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx