Sunday, June 17, 2012

Swiss and Afghan .

Swiss and Afghan
Andre Willers
17Jun 2012
Why are Switzerland and Afghanistan so different ?
The similarities are mountainous , easily defended territories bounded by large , aggressive empires populated by hardy , independent-minded refugees from surrounding empires .
The Swiss Experience :
The decisive point was in August , 1291 AD with the Ooath of Rutli . Short , clear and to the point . See Appendix I for the full text .
Points of note:
1.This is a near-textbook example of the Ostrum Principles in action . See Appendix II for Ostrum Principles .
2.The critical clause converting this treaty to a Common Resource argument is the section on Arson :
“But if any one of the confederates, by day, or in the silence of the night, shall maliciously injure another by fire, he shall never again be considered a fellow-countryman “
In other words , the Capital for wealth production is a common resource . A principle the Swiss follow to this day . (In Switzerland , if you burn down the houses and barns , everybody freezes in winter . Nobody wins.)
A sneaky little clause that reverberated down the centuries .
Reminiscent of the Sabine women’s really , really sneaky “Roman women will not cook or grind corn” .

The Afghan Experience :
The Swiss and Afghans followed very similar paths until about 1219 AD .
The Mongol Occupation (1219 AD) by Genghis Khan resulted in the almost complete extirpation of the culture and inhabitants . His small forces could not leave strong enemies in his rear , so he simply killed them all . The whole area repopulated from new influxes of refugees , but the tradition of cultural independence was lost . No equivalent to the Oath of Rutli developed , but only the usual hierarchical competitions . As we see today .

Religious Fundamentalism :
Funnily enough , this does not seem to play a big role . Both nations had extreme religious fundamentalisms of all sorts during their histories .

Can Afghanistan become the Switzerland of the East ?
Stranger things have happened .
Application of the Ostrum Principles , with specific reference to the Swiss example and the protection of competing nuclear umbrella’s (China , India , Russia ,USA) should make this at least achievable . The imminent permanent fall of the oil-price to about $70 (see “Fracking and the Oil-Price” Jun 2012) will remove a lot of super-power pressures in the Middle-East and open up a lot of niches .

Gnomes of Afghanistan , anyone ?
Appendix I
Oath of Rutli .

IN THE NAME OF GOD - AMEN. Honor and the public weal are promoted when leagues are concluded for the proper establishment of quiet and peace.

Therefore, know all men, that the people of the valley of Uri, the democracy of the valley of Schwyz, and the community of the Lower Valley of Unterwalden, seeing the malice of the age, in order that they may better deffend themselves, and their own, and better preserve them in proper condition, have promised in good faith to assist each other with aid, with every counsel and every favor, with person and goods, within the valley and without, with might and main, against one and all, who may inflict upon any one of them any violence, molestation or injury, or may plot any evil against their persons or goods. And in every case each community has promised to succour the other when necessary, at its own expense, as far as needed in order to withstand the attacks of evil-doers, and to avenge injuries; to this end they have sworn a solemn oath to keep this without guile, and to renew by these presents the ancient form of the league, also confirmed by an oath.

Yet in such a manner that every man, according to his rank, shall obey and serve his overlord as ist behooves him.

We have also vowed, decreed and ordained in common council and by unanimous consent, that we will accept or receive no judge in the aforesaid valleys, who shall have obtained his office for any price, or for money in any way whatever, or one who shall not be a native or a resident with us. But if dissension shall arise between any of the Eidgenossen (confederates; Eid = oath, Genosse = fellow, comrade), the most prudent amongst the confederates shall come forth to settle the difficulty between the parties, as shall seem right to them; and whichever party rejects their verdict shall be held an adversary by the other confederates.

Furthermore it has been established between them that he who deliberately kills another without provocation, shall, if caught, lose his life, as his wicked guilt requires, unless he be able to prove his innocence of said crime; and if perchance he escape, let him never return. Those who conceal and protect said criminal shall be banished from the valley, until they be expressly recalled by the confederates.

But if any one of the confederates, by day, or in the silence of the night, shall maliciously injure another by fire, he shall never again be considered a fellow-countryman. If any man protect and defend the said evil-doer, he shall render satisfaction to the one who has suffered damage.

Furthermore, if any one of the confederates shall spoil another of his goods, or injure him in any way, the goods of the guilty one, if recovered within the valleys, shall be seized in order to pay damages to the injured person, according to justice.

Furthermore, no man shall seize another's goods for debt, unless he be evidently his debtor or surety, and this shall only be done with the special permission of his judge.

Moreover, every man shall obey his judge, and if necessary, must himself indicate the judge in the valley, before whom he ought properly to appear. And if any one rebels against a verdict, and, in consequence of his obstinacy, any one of the confederates is injured, all the confederates are bound to compel the culprit to give satisfaction.

But if war or discord arise amongst any of the confederates and one party of the disputants refuse to accept the verdict of the judge or to give satisfaction, the confederates are bound to defend the other party.

The above-written statutes, decreed for the common welfare and benefit, shall endure forever, God willing. In testimony of which, at the request of the aforesaid parties, the present charter has been drawn up and confirmed with the seals of the aforesaid three communities and valleys.

So done in the year of the Lord 1291 at the beginning of the month of August.

Appendix II
The Ostrum Game
Andre Willers
30 Oct 2011

“One Game shall bind them all .” , ( with apologies to Tolkien)
“This time , we know for sure the grass is greener somewhere”
“A Revolution , any Revolution.”

Synopsis :
A Game for Grown-ups .
The Eight Ostrum Design Principles are Meta-rules that generate self-consistent sets of rules that encompasses competition , co-operation , catastrophe , hierarchies and other systems undreamt of , all between discrete , interacting , self-organising systems .
Your avatar can go from SecondLife to Simworld , to War Worlds , to any desired locale .
Reality becomes a subset .

Discussion :
1.An incredible amount of money can be made .While money still has some meaning .
Without too much work . See Para 8 in Appendix A
Each Game Company is a base nested institution .
They bind easily together , releasing a lot of energy and money .
Explosive Feedback Synergism .
A run-up to the Singularity .

2.Feedback between Games and Reality :
The Meta-rules make no differentiation between Game-characters and Real-characters .
Indeed , many Real-characters have been spun into Game-characters , and vice-versa .
Think Sherlock Holmes , MacGyver , Gauss , young Werther etc
See “mirror-neuron networks” , any soap opera , etc .

Real-life problems get treated the same way as Game problems . The more diverse and sophisticated the Game interactions become , the more effect on any real or Game system .
Eventually , they become undistinguishable as technology progresses .

3.The Grass is provably greener somewhere .
Long known as a wishful thinking fallacy , until Ostrum published the Design Principles in 1990 .
This was the trigger event of under-the-surface knowledge about Ostrum Rules building up .
Suddenly , it became possible .

A Phase-change in the noosphere occurred .

It meant that a Disaster of the Commons or an Empire was not inevitable . Grandchildren could survive .


Enormous tensions began surfacing . These effects are still playing out now .
A really , really major Hysterical Focus started forming , and is still intensifying .

Now , are you surprised that 1990 was the year of huge revolutions , when the USSR collapsed ?

The Ostrum Game beat the Ring of Power .

And you have not seen anything yet .

The pace of Revolutions is intensifying .
A good thing , if Homo wishes to escape extinction .

4.Automating Ostrum Rules :
They might be Meta-rules , but they are still rules .
We can certainly write programs that can serve to guide past most of the pitfalls and suggest alternatives .

5.Multicellular Bodies as Commons :
We can certainly analyze bodies in terms of Commons . The Dear Reader will find many interesting things if he does that .
Note the emphasis on communication .
Talk to your body . Aloud . And listen in the silences in between .
Create a virtual body and note the interactions .
Use the Ostrum Design principles .

6.Singularity :
It is immediately obvious that humans are then not limited to Real biochemical definitions of personality . The emphasis on communication means that personalities are distributed across Real and Game spaces . The Game space personality segments are only limited by internal non-contradictory rules . That can be done via Ostrum Design principles .

Not exactly instantaneous , but I can intuit that the time can be calculated . It would be less than real time .
The putative developing system would have ethical constraints on abandoning Real-part personalities under Ostrum Rules .
Told you it would be kindler , gentler .

7.Phase Change :
The system has already undergone an irrevocable phase change in 1990 .
You can fast-forward the rest .

8.Did Ostrum know what she was unleashing ?
The Revolutionary aspects , nearly certainly .
In her quiet way , she is one of the greatest Revolutionaries in Homo Sapiens history . Worthy of being called a Matriarch .

The Singularity aspect is more uncertain . She certainly knew that she unleashed major fairness , but the phase-change in the Noosphere I do not know .
Still , a tour-de-force .

How do feel like being a pet of your avatar ?

Andre .

Appendix A
To quote from Wiki : (comments in brackets are my own ).

“ Ostrom identifies eight "design principles" of stable local common pool resource management:[10]
1. Clearly defined boundaries (effective exclusion of external un-entitled parties;
2. Rules regarding the appropriation and provision of common resources that are adapted to local conditions; (Equal sharing of debts and rewards)
3. Collective-choice arrangements that allow most resource appropriators to participate in the decision-making process; (Consensus decisions-no leveraged hierarchies)
4. Effective monitoring by monitors who are part of or accountable to the appropriators; (Policing)
5. A scale of graduated sanctions for resource appropriators who violate community rules; (Opportunity to learn from mistakes )
6. Mechanisms of conflict resolution that are cheap and of easy access; (Fair and Fast Justice . See how Inquisitorial Justice systems like Chinese , French or Sharia does it.)
7. Self-determination of the community recognized by higher-level authorities; (Autonomy within clearly defined levels . Something like a Federation.)
8. In the case of larger common-pool resources,organization in the form of multiple layers of nested enterprises, with small local CPRs at the base level. (Clear and quick relations with others. A potential sticky point with states.)
Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action Ostrom, Elinor, Cambridge University Press, 1990 “

The most important book in the Twentieth Century .
Try to read it .


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