Saturday, February 08, 2014



Andre Willers
8 Feb 2014
Raid-or-Trade is coming back in fashion as social orders collapses .
Discussion :
1.Climate shifts cause social disruptions .
2.This causes degradation in defence capabibilties .
3.Opportunistic raiders take advantage .
4.Past :
4.1Sea Peoples
4.2 Vikings
Essentially , climate change weakened civilized defensive systems and also forced barbarians to go a-Viking .
“Modern history has its origins in the tumultuous 6th and 7th centuries. During this period agricultural failures and the emergence of the
plague contributed to: (1) the demise of ancient super cities, old Persia, Indonesian civilizations, the Nasca culture of South America,
and southern Arabian civilizations; (2) the schism of the Roman Empire with the conception of many nation states and the re-birth of
a united China; and (3) the origin and spread of Islam while Arian Christianity disappeared. In his book, Catastrophe An Investigation
into the Origins of the Modern World, author David Keys explores history and archaeology to link all of these human upheavals to
climate destabilization brought on by a natural catastrophe, with strong evidence from tree-ring and ice-core data that it occurred in
535 AD. With no supporting evidence for an impact-related event, I worked with Keys to narrow down the possibilities for a volcanic
eruption that could affect both hemispheres and bring about several decades of disrupted climate patterns, most notably colder and
drier weather in Europe and Asia, where descriptions of months with diminished sun light, persistent cold, and anomalous summer
snow falls are recorded in 6th-century written accounts.”

4.3 Formosans

Something similar happened (from genetic evidence) in Formosa to trigger the population of the Pacific Islands .
Other cultural traits often point to Taiwan as the strong link in spreading Australasian-speaking people and their traditions through Southeast Asia and the Pacific.
Indeed Australasian people migrated via extraordinary maritime journeys as far as Madagascar in the west, Easter Island in the east, Hawaii in the north and New Zealand in the south. These migrants propagated their cultural traditions, often modified to suit local conditions and preferences.
- See more at:

5.Future :
5.1 States lose the control of armed force .
This has already happened . Private security (essentially private armies ) ( cf Condottierry) offers services to wealthy individuals whishing to escape .
5.2 The traditional route to escape these troubles is by sea . But with newish technology , you need a fleet . Single ships simply won’t hack it .
5.3 Postulated  Scenario :
Social order in RSA collapses .
The region is wealthy . It has a large shipbuilding industry . Also large private security companies.
Armed to the teeth , with very sophisticated logistics .
People flee via ships . They have to survive . They arm . They can only survive in large groups with heavy arms . Funding then has to be done via Viking-type raid-settlement-trade .
Do not worry about the primitive Somali pirates .
South African pirates fleets will be much worse , although a bit more professional .

I did not expect this .
But should have .
Oh Well .


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