Friday, June 13, 2014

The Quiet Revolution .

Andre Willers .
13 Jun 2014
“Those who do not learn from the future , is doomed to repeat it .”
 
Synopsis :
The Real Commons Revolution has transplanted the hearts of failed ideologies . With an impressive list of successes .
 
Discussion :
1.Revolution Central :










See Appendix OOO : “The Ostrum Game”

 
2.Known effective applications :
2.1Almeria .




From desert to producing 50% of Europe’s green veggies.
This was where they made the “Dollar” spaghetti westerns .
Everything had to be created , from the subsoil upwards.
Now it is wealthiest part of Spain .
All due to co-operative rules between government and small farmers .
 
2.2 South African water allocation post 1994 .

 
2.4 Near-Earth Orbit
See Appendix AAA
 
2.5 Where else  ?
Common resources , especially where they become scarcer .
a.Water (eg California , US west) , India , Africa , Brazil , etc Been done and busy .
b.Fisheries . Been done and busy .
c. Bandwidth . Router networks replacing server farms and busy .
d. Air . busy
e. Capital .
Ostrum Networks of capital are treated as suspicious . They bypass the Central Banks’ control structures . They pay their taxes , and are open to legal scrutiny . BitCoin is an example , but there are many as old money . They are just not open to fiat allocation by self-appointed monetary governors .
During this Second Depression , Ostrum Principles will be the only thing keeping large percentages of humans alive .
f. Transport .
Uber says it all . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uber_(company) Basically , an internet lift-club .
Now expand it to bicycles , horses , donkeys , rickshaws , multi-ton trucks , ships , Harley-Davidsons , etc .
 

g. Housing . Busy
h. Food . Allotments , laube ,city farms , etc . Busy .
i. Manufacture. 3-D printing.
j. Innovation . Wiki et al .
k. Education . Internet
l. Health .
Good Health is a Common Resource. Ostrum Principles can be applied .
Long way to go .
 
The list is endless , and encompasses all the nut-and-bolts of what makes human life possible .
Co-operation , not conflict .

3.Solar System
This is a common Resource , quite fragile .
 
4. Galaxy : a common resource for many Type III Civilizations .
 
5. What does all this mean ?
There is a hole in the heart of despair  called hope .
What has happened during the last 30-40 years was a Quiet Revolution in rules of how to co-operate
As usual with humans , this has surfaced as violence as the impatient youth slam up against the obdurate elders .
 
There are better ways of sharing .
Better , superior co-operative alternatives to dominance .
Even in times of scarcity .
See Appendix PPP about Peace and War
 
6. The Quiet Revolution :
The present dominance systems (capitalism , socialism , communism , fundamentalism) has been hollowed out  .
The phase transition should be smooth .
Living standards of the privileged will have a sudden drop , and the usual scape-goat hunt will ensue . Another Truth-and-Reconciliation Commission  , this time for resource hogs (a category the dear reader probably does not even recognize himself as populating)
 
7. The GINI Imperative .
Copied in Appendix QQQ below .
 
Optimal Gini  0.28 < 0.33 < 0.38  , with sweetspot at 0.33 .
This means some rich (but not too rich) and some poor (but not too poor)
If everybody is too equal there are insufficient reserves .
Is this inherent in the present Eight Ostrum Principles ?
I do not know . But suspect that rule 8 might allow bubbling up of Gini, on either side .
Some work needed .
 
8. The Singularity looms , as always .
Can the Singularity be seen as a Common Resource ?
The run-up is certainly seen as such , as “Champions” like DARPA , RedArmy , etc are appointed for particular interests .
 
At the Singularity , the meld is complete . A separate identity cannot hold . Separate interests are meaningless .
 
9. Post-Singularity .
What ! Your mummy never told you about this ?
Just when you thought it was all over , you find out that God is the Fat Lady , and She has not sung yet . And She likes onions .
 
10 Repeatable Universes :
Of course you can repeat the whole boring shebang .
Hint : use onion-dome shaped universes .
 
xxx
11. Interesting Aside :
Notice how onion domes can channel single-point electron sources into repeatable orbits . This protects the interior during something similar to a lightning strike . Which is why you find all those surviving onion dome churches all over Austria , Eastern Europe , etc . on the highest spot , protecting the town and castle from the fury of the heavens .
Charge or Gravitic shields will then follow surface curvatures like onion domes (surprisingly , not spheres) . This is because onion domes combine positive and negative curvatures .
A Type IV Civilization would construct a onion-dome universe if they expect some unwelcome visitors . And indeed  , our Universe exhibit some of these characteristics .




Notice the combination of negative and positive curvature , with singularity points .
You can map this to (probability = e / h = 4.1024046 × 10^33 m-2 kg-1 s
correspondence with reality .)
 It means charge per irreducible action . A sort of MiniMax beloved by nature in random processes .
However , here it is not random , but guided by the onion-dome shape .
10^33 is near certainty , but not quite .
In this gap we insert our technology .
You can make a really nifty battery using an onion-dome .
Hint : make it active . Layer it with laser diodes , so that as charge leaks , it triggers the laser diode to shove the offending bit back into storage .
A nifty battery .
xxx
 
12. The Soap Opera  of the Commons .
Beats the Tragedy of the Commons , especially if you’re one of the actors .
Some humans (even 100% + ) could survive what is coming .
 
Know your onions !
 
Andre
 

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Appendix AAA


Application of Ostrom’s Principles for Sustainable Governance of Common-Pool Resources to Near-Earth Orbit

Near-Earth orbit is a key global resource, hosting assets critical to governments, militaries and commercial entities and providing services for global communications, remote sensing, national and international security, and accurate positioning and timing. It is also an increasingly crowded, congested and contested environment, at risk from both intentional and unintentional activities and events, and threats natural and human-made. Ensuring the long-term sustainability of the space environment is an increasingly recognized need by all users of space. This article considers the viability of principles regarding sustainable common-pool resources (CPRs) established by Elinor Ostrom for space govern
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Appendix OOO

Saturday, October 29, 2011
The Ostrum Game.
The Ostrum Game
Andre Willers
30 Oct 2011

“One Game shall bind them all .” , ( with apologies to Tolkien)
“This time , we know for sure the grass is greener somewhere”
“A Revolution , any Revolution.”

Synopsis :
A Game for Grown-ups .
The Eight Ostrum Design Principles are Meta-rules that generate self-consistent sets of rules that encompasses competition , co-operation , catastrophe , hierarchies and other systems undreamt of , all between discrete , interacting , self-organising systems .
Your avatar can go from SecondLife to Simworld , to War Worlds , to any desired locale .
Reality becomes a subset .

Discussion :
1.An incredible amount of money can be made .While money still has some meaning .
Without too much work . See Para 8 in Appendix A
Each Game Company is a base nested institution .
They bind easily together , releasing a lot of energy and money .
Explosive Feedback Synergism .
A run-up to the Singularity .

2.Feedback between Games and Reality :
The Meta-rules make no differentiation between Game-characters and Real-characters .
Indeed , many Real-characters have been spun into Game-characters , and vice-versa .
Think Sherlock Holmes , MacGyver , Gauss , young Werther etc
See “mirror-neuron networks” , any soap opera , etc .

Real-life problems get treated the same way as Game problems . The more diverse and sophisticated the Game interactions become , the more effect on any real or Game system .
Eventually , they become undistinguishable as technology progresses .

3.The Grass is provably greener somewhere .
Long known as a wishful thinking fallacy , until Ostrum published the Design Principles in 1990 .
This was the trigger event of under-the-surface knowledge about Ostrum Rules building up .
Suddenly , it became possible .

A Phase-change in the noosphere occurred .

It meant that a Disaster of the Commons or an Empire was not inevitable . Grandchildren could survive .

WE CAN MAKE THE GRASS GREENER , EVEN IF WE HAVE TO PAINT IT ONE BLADE AT A TIME .

Enormous tensions began surfacing . These effects are still playing out now .
A really , really major Hysterical Focus started forming , and is still intensifying .

Now , are you surprised that 1990 was the year of huge revolutions , when the USSR collapsed ?

The Ostrum Game beat the Ring of Power .

And you have not seen anything yet .

The pace of Revolutions is intensifying .
A good thing , if Homo wishes to escape extinction .

4.Automating Ostrum Rules :
They might be Meta-rules , but they are still rules .
We can certainly write programs that can serve to guide past most of the pitfalls and suggest alternatives .

5.Multicellular Bodies as Commons :
We can certainly analyze bodies in terms of Commons . The Dear Reader will find many interesting things if he does that .
Note the emphasis on communication .
Talk to your body . Aloud . And listen in the silences in between .
Create a virtual body and note the interactions .
Use the Ostrum Design principles .

6.Singularity :
It is immediately obvious that humans are then not limited to Real biochemical definitions of personality . The emphasis on communication means that personalities are distributed across Real and Game spaces . The Game space personality segments are only limited by internal non-contradictory rules . That can be done via Ostrum Design principles .

Not exactly instantaneous , but I can intuit that the time can be calculated . It would be less than real time .
The putative developing system would have ethical constraints on abandoning Real-part personalities under Ostrum Rules .
Told you it would be kindler , gentler .

7.Phase Change :
The system has already undergone an irrevocable phase change in 1990 .
You can fast-forward the rest .

8.Did Ostrum know what she was unleashing ?
The Revolutionary aspects , nearly certainly .
In her quiet way , she is one of the greatest Revolutionaries in Homo Sapiens history . Worthy of being called a Matriarch .

The Singularity aspect is more uncertain . She certainly knew that she unleashed major fairness , but the phase-change in the Noosphere I do not know .
Still , a tour-de-force .

How do feel like being a pet of your avatar ?

Andre .

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Appendix A
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elinor_Ostrom
To quote from Wiki : (comments in brackets are my own ).

“ Ostrom identifies eight "design principles" of stable local common pool resource management:[10]
1. Clearly defined boundaries (effective exclusion of external un-entitled parties;
2. Rules regarding the appropriation and provision of common resources that are adapted to local conditions; (Equal sharing of debts and rewards)
3. Collective-choice arrangements that allow most resource appropriators to participate in the decision-making process; (Consensus decisions-no leveraged hierarchies)
4. Effective monitoring by monitors who are part of or accountable to the appropriators; (Policing)
5. A scale of graduated sanctions for resource appropriators who violate community rules; (Opportunity to learn from mistakes )
6. Mechanisms of conflict resolution that are cheap and of easy access; (Fair and Fast Justice . See how Inquisitorial Justice systems like Chinese , French or Sharia does it.)
7. Self-determination of the community recognized by higher-level authorities; (Autonomy within clearly defined levels . Something like a Federation.)
8. In the case of larger common-pool resources,organization in the form of multiple layers of nested enterprises, with small local CPRs at the base level. (Clear and quick relations with others. A potential sticky point with states.)
Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action Ostrom, Elinor, Cambridge University Press, 1990 “

The most important book in the Twentieth Century .
Try to read it .

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Appendix PPP

Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Origins of Peace and War II
Origins of Peace and War II
Andre Willers
14 Nov 2012
“The Real Gates of Janus are closing”
Synopsis:
General War is becoming less prevalent as technology enables smart targeting of particular prey .

Discussion:
War results from the certain targets being designated as “prey” by social authorities .
See Appendix I for a further discussion . But this was written in 2007 . Things have changed . (A definition of the run-up into the Singularity . )
Prey are now designated by social media like Facebook and Twitter .
Very democratic and short-term .
But is there a long-term ?
Closing in on the Singularity , things change faster and faster . There is no long-term in any meaningful terms .
The Hysterical Focus :
Described in Appendix II . This is the mechanism whereby Prey is selected by the Social Organism . For examples see what happened to Gaddafi , Murdock , BBC etc . What is happening to Assad .
Notice there is no workable use of the Jingoism used before by ruling classes to divert attention into a General War . The fine detail of the social media makes this impossible .

What does this mean ?
It means that fighting does not cease , but it gets chopped up into smaller , manageable pieces , not large Wars .
These smaller pieces can be handled by the Ostrum Principles .

So , we are seeing a not so quiet revolution where everybody settles their differences on a small scale , and declines an invitation to a general conflagration .
The humans who actually create these dangerous toys decline to play any more .
xxxxx
An interesting aside :
The sociopathic switch will be selected against . A lot of sociopaths will suddenly become kind and caring . (It is a epigenetic switch , not DNA . The chemicals are air-borne and touch .) . Won’t help much for psychopaths , but there might be some “spontaneous remission “ for some schizophrenics .
Kindness is in the air .
You can already see it in the hierarchical chiefs beating their breasts and saying “ Sorry”
Oh well . Lack of conscience works on a small scale as well . As long as the bastards do not get their hands on large levers of power .
Xxxxx

Summation :
“Plus la change”
The Matriarchy has won on Earth . But the off-Earth systems are the equivalent of the horse-nomads
And so it repeats .
I thought it would mercifully end with extinction of humans about 2060 AD , but space-nomads and the Matriarchy seems to be God’s little joke .
Singularity only for some .
The Singularities will follow Riemann’s Expansion , if only you knew the dimensions .

Dynamic tension , anyone ?
As the society goes into the Singularity , does it mean that you go into the mainstream or get washed up in one of the fractal tributaries ?


See parts of you on the other side
Fractally and partially yours
Andre


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Appendix I
The Origins of War and Peace
Andre Willers
20 April 2007
( see previous discussions in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com)

Synopsis :
War is when a society sanctions other humans as prey .
If the other humans belong to another society , it is Classical War . If not , it is a Police Action .
Endless fun is had by playing around with the definitions of “human” (Nazis) , “society” (religions , political movements , criminals , etc) .

Discussion:
Humans have a hard-wired brain center that classifies something as “prey” . Once this switch has tripped and the fixation has taken place , it is extremely difficult to change.

Evolutionary , it derived from pack-behaviour .
Pack hunters need to identify the chosen prey which the pack-leader has designated . The pointers derive from the leader’s social behaviour like pointing , eye-fixation , words etc .
Then they need to fixate on this prey to exclusion . (The nuts-and-bolts neuronal arrangement can be traced back to infant-imprinting.)

Successful packs are those that can focus the full pack on a particular prey , even if individual members of the pack might suffer injury or death .

A subsidiary hard-wired complex developed monitoring fellow-pack members . Any attack has to have some co-ordination . Call this Social-feeling .

Counting :
An iterative counting brain center that could count to three evolved .
(This center’s precise location has been identified (via fMRI). Rendering it inoperative (via magnetic focused pulse) led to a normally very rare inability to gut-feel numbers . Like reading by consulting a child’s primer every step .) Called anacalculus .

Us , Them ,Prey .
Each system is iteratively further broken down into threes , etc .

Three is necessary , since Us and Them is insufficient .
The Prey has to be identified , leading to Them being broken up into Them and Prey .

An intriguing corollary is that while the sets Us and Them may comprise many diverse elements , the Prey has to be constrained to one easily identified element . This explains why hate merchants like Hitler , the schoolyard bully , etc pick on specifics . Why neighbours who know each other kill neighbours in Uganda . Why the wife/husband is the most frequent unsanctioned homicidal victim .

There can only be One Prey .
(Apologies to the Highlander.)
Certain elements in martyr religions can be more easily understood this way .


Packs .
Packs are innate in any organism that cares for it’s young .
Parent(s) + kids = pack .
Iterative congeries across time of genetic relationships leads to complicated social relationships ( see inheritance of dominance in monkeys ,etc)

Human ancestors underwent a prolonged period of being cursorial raptors , developing pack behaviour on a genetic and social level to a high degree . This was convergent evolution with dogs . It is no wonder then that dogs and humans understand each other at such a deep , non-verbal level .

Parts of humans are the same as dogs .

Query : Why the insult of calling somebody a dog , a cur , a son-of-a-bitch etc ?
Answer : The insult is to the human being addressed , expressing dominance , not to dogs . In many cases , the only cultural referent understood by both human parties were doggish loyalty , which translated as slavishness between enemies . Indeed , many humans expressed their loyalty as being dogs of their ruler .

The dogs of war :
An interesting bit of propaganda by the Condottierri to put a spin on their faithless conduct .

Cannibalism .
Let’s face it , our ancestors ate each other until about 72 000 years ago .
The population density was low , making disease like kourou unlikely .
A large number of hominid evolutionary steps were driven by genetic deficiencies , necessitating obligate hunting . ( see previous discussions in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com)

Prey was everybody else except Us . This is the default Homonid setting .

MkI Homo Sapiens .

They evolved around 150 000 to 200 000 years ago .
The body was small by our standards , with little sexual dimorphism . The males were not much bigger , stronger or more aggressive than the females .
Great strength was not needed when hunting with weapons , snares and nets .
Indeed , big mass was selected against because of the significant higher energy needs that made starving to death much more likely during down-turns like droughts . Remember , there was little surplus and no way to store it .

Language was the main purview of the females . Gossiping and politics . The females were the central point of each group , together with the children . The males formed a cloud around this group . But arrangements were very loose and easy , as the living was easy .

Numbers were small , game was plentiful and other hominids made nice little packages of essential nutrients for these obligate hunters .

There is no culture as we even vaguely understand the term .

This was the end-line of development of pre-cultural homonins .

The default was that all not-Us were prey . ( Not War , not Peace , but anarchy)

MkII Homo Sapiens .

The Invention of Peace .

Then Toba happened . (72 000 BC )
The supervolcano in Indonesia caused the equivalent of a nuclear winter across the globe . Snow fell in equatorial regions and there was mass die-off of plants and their dependant animals .

The cold and hunger caused a concentration of numbers around some volcanic hotspots in the highlands of East Africa ( Remember , it snowed on the equator) . It did not happen all at once , so refugees fluxed into the survivable spots . In this crucible , human culture was invented . The numbers were small enough that certain existing epigenetic centers in the brain/body were forced evolved .

Remember , it took centuries for the land to recover .
From the genetic bottle-neck evidence , human numbers fell to between 3 000 and 10 000 . These are extinction levels
Cannibalistic diseases and inbreeding are particularly vicious in small , poorly nourished communities like these .

Co-operation and expansion of the gene-pool was essential .

The surviving communities were the ones where females took control and forced co-operation by designating non-prey .

In other words , the females ( probably led by some redoubtable dowager ) , invented Peace , and what’s more , enforced it .

This was Humanity’s greatest invention . The woman who did it deserves a Nobel prize for each year her Peace lasted .

Population was rigorously kept to sustainable levels by Matriarchal control of breeding lines and birthrates .

They did it so well that the Peace lasted about 60 000 years .
Note that the American and Australian continents where massive and quick animal extinctions took place , were populated from areas probably outside matriarchal control . Note also that the continent with the most extant animal megafauna (Africa) was where the matriarchy originated . Not too shabby ,eh?

One effect was thus the extreme taboo against cannibalism . This is an epigenetic inheritance ( ie data transmitted by mother to offspring , not in the DNA , but not cultural either .)

Inherent in this is that the Prey designation mechanism (now also epigenetic) came under social control . Elaborate rite-of-passage ceremonies evolved to certify an organism as human . (Failures were killed or expelled)

High on the list was Prey designation : hence the emphasis on starving candidates . The original rites featured humans as prey , and the candidate who could not control himself , failed .

This became putting off present gratification for future reward , what we think of as defining feature of cultural humans .

This also means the invention of religion , since the reward can be put off into the hereafter .

They also invented clothing , many uses of fire , hairdressing , makeup , jewelry , beads , gourmet cooking and the other things that make life worthwhile

Co-operating instead of hunting each other made trade and diversication of labour possible . Tools increased in sophistication from about 70 000 BC .

There was a significant human mutation in genes controlling brain growth . This has been very roughly dated as occurring about 40 000 – 50 000 years ago . The significance is not known , but it is speculated that it has to do with the growth of human culture .

The culture was explosively radiative . The advantages of a better and richer life through the material benefits sucked in even non-human homonins ( hence the gene mixing) . Anti-social elements were designated Prey and declared outlaw (this is what it means . The ultimate sanction then and now . Declared non-human , their only options were to die or to flee . )

When these MkII Humans exploded out of Africa , they did not kill the Neanderthals and Sinienses found in Europe and Asia . Their prey instincts were under social control .

Hence the interbreeding results now being found in the fossil record or the genetic evidence of the human flea .
( Some skeletons found indicate a mixture of Neanderthal and Homo Sapiens . Doubtlessly , more will be certain once the Neanderthal genome has been sequenced in about three years . More certain seems recent evidence of Siniens interbreeding , especially the genetic evidence that some species of human lice seemed to have crossed over back to Homo Sapiens from Siniens(Erectus) . The main-line Homo Sapiens fleas evolved into head and body lice after the invention of clothing after Toba .)


The other Sexes of Man
(see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “The Sexes of Man”)
An intriguing speculation is that various null-sexes and homosexes got an evolutionary push from the reduced fertility in crossbreeding between MkII Homo and other various cousins that were subsumed into the Homo gene-cultural pool . This would have had a major effect on the evolution of the meme of property and inheritance .

MkII Humans .
What did they look like ?

The closest survivors we have are the Bushmen .

The female is the basic unit . There is little sexual dimorphism . The male is slightly larger than the female , but not significantly better muscled or more aggressive . Weapons and intelligence are more important in hunting than strength .
Females are the cultural guardians and control the group , both epigenetically and culturally .

Their Culture:
In fertile regions , the females and children form a nucleus with a floating cloud of males . Females select males to have children , either from personal taste or by direction of the Matriarchy . As expected , about 90% of males do not have children , as the females all select the alpha-males . This creates tension .

A Matriarchy .

Overpopulation was kept under check by infanticide of weaklings (bushmen , greeks , romans) . The limits of population were precisely known after literally tens of thousands of years of hunter-gatherer interactions .

An extremely stable form of government .

MkIII Homo Sapiens .
As can be seen from the above , the matriarchs naturally thought in terms of selective breeding . Hence their invention of agriculture and domesticated animals . (The were the finest genetic engineers the planet has yet seen , including the present poseurs.)

Yet the invention of both held the seeds of their destruction .

Domestication of animals and agriculture (circa 10 000 years ago) went hand-in-hand . Even today , most agricultural produce go to feed animals .

The net effect was a population explosion .

The old methods of estimating the carrying capacity of the land did not work with this new-fangled agriculture . The large groups of feral males expelled into the borderlands during the last 60 000 years now also increased in numbers due to end of the Ice-Age . They could be hired by surplus agricultural produce and promise of breeding women .

The matriarchs now had physical locations they had to defend against marauding clouds of feral males or males from other villages . Down-turns ( drought , winters , etc) made it worse . The inexorable logic of evolution means that no matter how many times you succeed , only one failure is enough to destroy you .

Increasing populations had led to population centers (cities) , that traded . Trade on this scale unleashed what we would call globalization . Cheaper produce and manufactures from the peripheries destroyed the livelihood of local farmers and artisans . The resulting social unrest necessitated breeding warriors from the outside stock to keep control for the oligarchy of matriarchs and priestesses .

This happened over a period of about 6 000 years . ( A Matriarchy is a really , really stable form of government .)

The result was an arms-race . The matriarchs either deliberately , or as a desperation measure , bred males for aggression and strength . This was easy in a culture that already practiced infanticide and death-by-neglect . Nubile females were directed only to mate with the jocks . Breeding stock was imported or required as tribute from the Outlands ( cf remnants like Theseus , etc)

The social structure (what we would call the Bronze Age) slowly broke down .
The Matriarchs also designated the competing groups as prey to their warrior clouds . War had arrived ..

MkIII Homo Sapiens was the result .
There is marked sexual dimorphism . The male is significantly bigger , but also grossly overpowered . Sinews and bones break continually from the overbred power .

The biggest difference is in aggression and Social-feeling . (see above)
There is a positive feedback between Aggression and Fellow-feeling . A large group focusing on a prey is more successful if the elements of the group share values more intensely . All we need to add is that large numbers of combatants are more successful than small numbers (generally true for low-energy weapons) , and you have an Army and War .

Social-Feeling:
The increase in social-feeling leads to large hysterical-type religions , and (not too put too fine a point on it ) large mobs .

The other whammy :
Horses .
Villages on the edges of the Ukrainian Steppes domesticated horses . Over hundreds of years , young men drifted into the steppes . Matriarchs could not follow them , since a pregnant woman cannot ride . The result was the formation of the Sky Gods religions . The horsemen turned around and made the originating villages their fiefs . From this basis they exploited every weakness of the Matriarchs .
Patriarchal religion arises .


The big Crack.

The collapse of the Late Bronze Age civilization (see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com)

This was not an overnight affair , but the later stages makes “Apocalypto” look like a picnic .

It was a combination of factors :
The breakdown of the social systems led to continual internecine warfare between city-states (ie groups of Matriarchs) . The males were being force-bred to be bigger and more aggressive . Then a climate shift caused a series of prolonged droughts from about 6 000 to 4 000 BC , seriously increasing unrest . The destruction of Minoan sea-power due to tsunamis and the inability to rebuild their fleet because they had denuded all readily accessible timber was the last straw . It took about 200 years , but the resultant spasm of war , destruction and cannibalism destroyed the matriarchies around the Middle-East and the Mediterranean .

The horse patriarchs swept over the remains and stamped patriarchal memes very firmly on the twitching remains .

Some Matriarchal memes remained in the far-west (Britain) . Hence the Druids .
Egypt and some surviving cities in the middle-east retained underground matriarchal cults ( Isis , Cybele , Earth Mother , etc , etc)

The Romans destroyed the corrupted Druid remnants .

The Roman Catholic Church later incorporated the main elements of the surviving matriarchy in the Roman Empire in the female saints and the Virgin Mary . The rest were ruthlessly exterminated . (Literally)

The only remnants of the Matriarchy that had ruled for nearly 70 000 years were some nunneries . Even here they were meme controlled ( Brides of Christ : ie connected to a male .)

Islam did the same . Note that the nun’s habit is identical with the chador .

It makes one wonder : why did the Council of Nicea decide on such a radical step ?
After all , the Roman Empire toward the end had little sex-discrimination . Constantinople had many empresses .

Why did the West suppress matriarchies ?

The suspicion arises that they did it because they felt threatened .

A meme structure like the Matriarchy that thinks in terms of 70 000 thousands of years and selective breeding of generations does not let a temporary hiatus of 5 000 years stop them . Indeed , elementary consideration would show that this could not have been the first or only reverse . Thus , they would have evolved mechanisms to survive what they consider temporary setbacks , together with some aggressive bounce-back mechanisms .

They probably tried to take over control of the Roman Catholic Church and the Western Empire . The Church destroyed most evidence , but there is Constantine’s mother , a taverners daughter who came up with some serious money to hire troops .

The killer , though , was probably the shenanigans with Attila . The Western Court at the time was even a bigger nest of snakes than usual . This was also the last time women played a significant role . If Aetius had not stopped Attila , the West would probably be a matriarchy now .

The Patriarchal meme-set seems to be long-lasting , but scared .
Some examples :
The refusal to aid Constantinople in 1453 . Indeed , the whole split . The West feels more comfortable with a patriarchal Islam than a matriarchy . Even so , Turkey seems to have been hit by a double whammy from the women : Naksh , and the enfolding and vanishment of the Circassians circa 1820 .

For those not up to speed :
Naksh (the Beautiful ) was a cousin of Josephine Bonaparte . They both came from Martinique and both became Empresses . Naksh was captured by Barbary pirates , and given as a virgin present to the Sultan . She must have been something exceptional , since he made her his principal and only wife , and more importantly , allowed her to educate her son the heir . This guy broke (well ,exterminated) the Janisseries (no mean feat) . He embarked the Ottoman Empire on the route that led to Turkey of today being a secular Islamic state (the only one) .

The Circassians were a tribe in the Caucasian mountains that reputedly for thousands of years bred their women for beauty and then sold them . This is like saying Elizabeth Taylor or Madonna is a slave . As you can imagine , even if it was not a matriarchal scheme to start off with , it would not be soon before the women ran the scheme . Reputedly , their beauty approached super-image quality , to such an extent that they had to be veiled so as not to drive men mad with visions of unattainability .

Of course the other side of the coin is more likely . For 60 000 years the matriarchy had bred and perfected women that could freeze men’s souls with their beauty and pheromones (cf Sirens , Circe , Gorgons , etc) . Brainy too . So the Circassians were breeding the beauty out , not in , to fit with modern society .

By 1820 they had to move , as the entire Caucasus mountains became very unsafe due to the Russian Empire expanding . Bullets or cannons do not care about beauty . The entire tribe moved to Constantinople and was not heard of again (of course) .

An interesting note here is that they probably had a copy of the Library of Constantinople . Very probably many of the originals . One of those ironies of history is that the Library everyone is looking for (including most of the Library of Alexandria) is right back where it started . A further ironic note is that Templars got obliterated mainly for having a copy . Contaminated by the Matriarchy . Fallout was the Albigensians and the Spanish Inquisition .

The question is : what on earth did the matriarchy do to provoke such an extreme response , one that has reverberated for thousands of years ? Even the memory of the deeds are gone (except maybe in some dusty archive) , but the emotions evoked still seem to be alive .

The only thing I can think of is a monstrous betrayal and perversion of the very bedrock of the Matriarchy’s social contract : when things got bad , they designated their people they considered useless as Prey and ate them .

This is like the Pope cutting out some nice fat American tourists on St Peter’s square and having a braai , with them as the guests of honour on the spit , all the while intoning that they should be honoured to serve .

Worse . Christianity has ritual cannibalism . No wonder this has reverberated down the ages . And it must have gone on for at least 200 years .

Shit . And I thought the high death rate in the Late Bronze age collapse was due to the quick conquest by the Sea Peoples . Instead , for hundreds of years the matriarchy and attendant nobles ate their people . The logic from their point is that the plebs should be honoured to feed their betters who know better and would be able to pull things together once the drought ends . And even when the drought ended , they could not stop . They were caught in the vested interests and , besides , it would take years before trade picked up and their shares paid a decent dividend .

The Sea Peoples were what we would call Liberators and Freedom Fighters . The capital letters are justified . Not even the Nazis or the Soviets ate the inmates of the camps , never mind put them in camps just for this purpose .

I always wondered how Rameses III could trust the Sea Peoples after the battle of the Nile to withdraw to southern Palestine . How could they exist if the area was so drought stricken ? But it wasn’t . It could support a lesser number , but not the overpopulated cities before . He had to promise to cleanse his country as well .Something he was not averse to .

But besides that , the Sea Peoples were fighting to cleanse the world of a great evil . The last holdout was in Egypt . They would have kept coming . All of them had family that was eaten .

This monumental blunder took place after the invention of agriculture , when overpopulation got out of control . I presume the present Matriarchy is determined not to make the same mistake . Overpopulation is once again out of control .


A note to the Matriarchy :
Kindly do not attempt to dispose of the surplus biomass through your stomach . It did not work too well 5 000 years ago . This time you will get crispies all round . The contract of 72 000 years ago is that either all pull through , or none do . Got it ?

The crucial Patriarchal meme:
No woman shall be without a connection with some male .

It does not matter if the male is a father , brother , husband ,son ,etc .
The intention is to prevent the build-up of a purely female powerbase . (ie a Matriarchy)

It worked for about 5 000 years .

Why it broke down :
The hidden assumption:
A high death rate due to high female death rate in childbirth .
This assumption steadily diverged from reality since about 1850 , as asepsis and birth procedures progressed .

The result was that woman outlived men by about 7 years on average . Rich woman in the US inheriting all their husband’s assets is a bigger percentage since the 1920’s . The US is a matriarchy by now .

Some symptoms:
Some 66% of US families have only one parent , namely the mother .
Crime rates have increased . This is because clouds of males are forming ,without matriarchal systems to keep them in control . At the levels of aggression and
testosterone the females have bred into them , only one thing will work :

UltraMama
A discreet word with Marvel Comics or some games designer might be appropriate .
And please , not SuperMama . Every Mama is a SuperMama .

MkIV Homo Sapiens .

Around 1800 the New Model Homo Saps was rolled out .
The new model is emotionally cool and is inclined to compulsive behaviour .
It welcomes uberbabes , but vehemently rejects a role as appetizer or even main course .

Aggression is not impulsive , but compulsive .
This is epigenetic .

This means that he can only be reasoned with . Emotional pressure points like fear , hate , love will play no role in behaviour .

Once an aggressive course is determined , nothing will stop it except superior force or logic .

The development of industrial technology required people that can concentrate for hours at a time on technical things like lathes , mathematics , etc , etc . The Fellow-feeling center in the brain suddenly became the cannon-fodder center .

A previous pathology ( Autism spectrum ) was dusted off and selection pressures are busily selecting and modifying . Aspergers (which did not exist before , suddenly is a desirable condition . The rough edges are being filed off .

It also means that the political control both Patriarchies and Matriarchies had is evaporating . The levers are turning to mush under their fingers .

Both have failed . They think the solution is in killing off their constituents when things get tough . This is no longer a viable solution from their viewpoint , as they have already lost control of the technical aspects . They are the most likely ones to do the tumbrel dance when things go ape .

Andre

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Appendix II
Hysterical Focus and Ostrum Commons
Andre Willers
20 Oct 2011

Synopsis :
Hysterical Foci spontaneously self-assemble if there are a critical number of Ostrum Commons Rules present .
There are Eight Ostrom Rules . General theory of Reserves suggest that any 1/3 of them (ie any 3 rules ) will lead to Self-assembly of an Hysterical Focus . Regardless of consequences .

Discussion :

1.Hysterical Focus :
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Inside the ignition of an hysterical focus” Jun 2010
Humans are an hysterical species . This was turned into a powerful advantage .
It evolved from early monkey and ape stages .

The attention and energies of the whole troop is co-opted (ie involuntary) and co-ordinated onto one single subject . This happens in the amygdala and hippocampus .

Fast forward to humans , and you have fashion (a mild form) or an Hysterical Focus .
All the resources of the group is devoted to the problem in an involuntary fashion .
No human is immune .
Individual considerations are overridden at very deep levels .

The stuff Revolutions are made from .
A highly successful method of breaking false optimal peaks

2.Ostrum Commons :
The system formed a Commons , resolvable in three ways :
2.1Tragedy of the Commons (Communism) Cf Aral Sea
2.2Private ownership(Capitalism) Cf Economic crashes
2.3Ostrum Commons .
This lost out in competition because it is essentially a fractal Small-system , dependant on good communication . It kept bubbling up in peasant revolts , but could never self-cohere .
This changed with electronic communication systems like facebook , twitter, telephone ,etc .
Unstoppable now . Over a certain quantitive threshold , the network changes quantitively.

3.Self-Assembly :
Any three Ostrum rules present will result in the spontaneous self-assembly of the other Rules .
The Dear Reader can prove this himself/herself .(Hint:look at overlapping dimensionalities of the Rules)
Or they can cheat and look at http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “New Tools” Nov 2008 .
If there is a sufficient density of communication , an Hysterical Focus will form . And we are off to the races . A fertile field of future research .

4.Some interesting properties of Hysterical Foci :
4.1They don't stop . Once ignited , the Focus continues until the goals are met or the information links have been smashed (not possible today , even with a nuclear war). Hunkering down and waiting until it dies down does not work .
4.2There are no leaders initially . Decoying the structure into an hierarchical system has been an old counter . Not possible with a large number of alternate information pathways , or the awareness of Ostrum Rules .
4.3The individual members of the Hysterical Focus follow group rules , not self-interest .
Your old-fashioned Revolutionaries .
4.4Nobody is immune . It is as deep as your genes .
4.5Politicians , PR and advertising firms have become aware of the effect and are trying to harness it .
Sigh . It is a Beth(2) system , and it will always turn in their hands .

Hysterically yours
Andre

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Appendix A
A powerful example :
China :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household-responsibility_system
History
Politicians did not initiate the household-responsibility system : local villagers developed it as an experiment later applied nationwide.
Allocating farmlands to individuals or to families rated as a crime during the Mao era in China, but the low-level productivity under collective farming and drought forced villagers ofXiaogang, Fengyang to do so in 1978. They implemented this system secretly, and signed a contract, "if any one of us is put to prison as a result, others shall be responsible for taking care of his children until they reach 18 years of age".
The secret experiment proved very successful. In 1979 similar experiments began inSichuan and Anhui provinces, both seeing dramatic increases in agricultural productivity.Deng Xiaoping openly praised these experiments in 1980, and the system has been adopted nationwide since 1981.
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Appendix QQQ


Sunday, March 16, 2014
GINI and the rubble of Empire
GINI and the Rubble of Empire . 


Andre Willers .
16 Mar 2014
“Grasping all , they lose all” AW
Synopsis :
What we see as the glory of Rome is really just the rubble of the rich, built on the backs of poor farmers and laborers .And things are worse today .

Discussion:
1.GINI measures unequal income . It measures desperation in hunger and medicine .
The Gini coefficient is a number between 0 and 1, where 0 corresponds with perfect equality (where everyone has the same income) and 1 corresponds with perfect inequality (where one person has all the income—and everyone else has zero income).
Easy to remember : No 1 has it all .
The rest have nothing except what is doled out in the Camps .
2.Not even the Roman Empire had as high Gini ratio’s as present so-called democracies .
Xx
A short summary of the most important countries .
Where would you like to live if you were (a) rich . Or (b) at the bottom .
This differential drives Revolution and Migration .

RSA Gini= 0.63
China Gini = 47.4
USA   Gini = 0.45
Russia Gini = 0.417
UK Gini = 40
Japan Gini= 0.376
India Gini = 0.368
Germany Gini= 0.27

xxx
Roman Empire (150 AD) :  Gini = 0.42

This basically means that a Roman slave in 150 AD had a fairer deal than a salary slave in most of the present Western world .
Note the exception of Germany .

See Appendix A for Roman Empire Gini .
  
3. Reserve considerations .
See Appendix C on how to calculate optimal reserves ab-initio .
Reserve arguments can be used .
The society should build up reserves . This is usually held in individual hands (your savings) , but it shows up in Gini statistics as lowering the ratio .
The Optimal GINI would then be in the band 0.28 – 0.33 – 0.38  , with the sweet spot at 0.33 .

4.Some corollaries :
If GINI smaller than 0.28 , instability ensues . Insufficient reserves. Usually collapse . Cities deserted as the good citizens just walk away .
Or the collapse of the USSR . See http://www.roiw.org/1993/23.pdf
The 1989 Gini of USSR = 0.275 .  It shouldn’t have led to collapse , but they were in an arms-race with USA . Insufficient reserves .
The system went into shock and collapsed .

If GINI  bigger than 0.38 , instability ensues . Too much reserves in too few hands . Usually revolution .
See Arab Spring , Syria , Occupy Wall st , etc etc .Or any peasant rebellion in history , a-la-France  or Russia .

5.Where are we now 2014 ?
Every country with a Gini bigger than 0.38 and social media access is a revolution waiting to happen .
Countries with Gini smaller than 0.28 have to be propped up .
  
According to this argument , Germany appears strong now , but might need aid in the near future . Can this be correct ? Remember verreine . Huge reserves are locked up in the verreine . But how is classified in the Gini calculation ?

6.What does this mean ?
Big , top-heavy states will continue to break apart .
Ukraine now , UK (Scotland) later this year .
 A big Empire like the USA is showing distinct signs of strain . The tail is attempting to wag the dog . Be interesting to see who is the last man standing in the ruins .
“Better dead than red” used to be the motto . But can get enthusiastic about Donkeys and Elephants ?

7 RSA ?
The same story . Another artificial mini-empire tacked together by the British . The extremely high Gini will force a break-up of the provinces . The usual civil war will ensue as the vultures pick the carcass apart .
See Appendix D on Neo-Vikings .
I would have hoped that they go off-planet , but they are too stupid and poor to do that .

8. What an exciting future .
Greed and stupidity finally does for the human race .

“Grasping all , they lose all”
Regards
Andre

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Appendix A
http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/2d53lE/:Ix!ztvvU:fhbrmqFE/persquaremile.com/2011/12/16/income-inequality-in-the-roman-empire/
Over the last 30 years, wealth in the United States has been steadily concentrating in the upper economic echelons. Whereas the top 1 percent used to control a little over 30 percent of the wealth, they now control 40 percent. It’s a trend that was for decades brushed under the rug but is now on the tops of minds and at the tips of tongues.
Since too much inequality can foment revolt and instability, the CIA regularly updates statistics on income distribution for countries around the world, including the U.S. Between 1997 and 2007, inequality in the U.S. grew by almost 10 percent, making it more unequal than Russia, infamous for its powerful oligarchs. The U.S. is not faring well historically, either. Even the Roman Empire, a society built on conquest and slave labor, had a more equitable income distribution.
To determine the size of the Roman economy and the distribution of income, historians Walter Schiedel and Steven Friesen pored over papyri ledgers, previous scholarly estimates, imperial edicts, and Biblical passages. Their target was the state of the economy when the empire was at its population zenith, around 150 C.E. Schiedel and Friesen estimate that the top 1 percent of Roman society controlled 16 percent of the wealth, less than half of what America’s top 1 percent control.
To arrive at that number, they broke down Roman society into its established and implicit classes. Deriving income for the majority of plebeians required estimating the amount of wheat they might have consumed. From there, they could backtrack to daily wages based on wheat costs (most plebs did not have much, if any, discretionary income). Next they estimated the incomes of the “respectable” and “middling” sectors by multiplying the wages of the bottom class by a coefficient derived from a review of the literature. The few “respectable” and “middling” Romans enjoyed comfortable, but not lavish, lifestyles.
Above the plebs were perched the elite Roman orders. These well-defined classes played important roles in politics and commerce. The ruling patricians sat at the top, though their numbers were likely too few to consider. Below them were the senators. Their numbers are well known—there were 600 in 150 C.E.—but estimating their wealth was difficult. Like most politicians today, they were wealthy—to become a senator, a man had to be worth at least 1 million sesterces (a Roman coin, abbreviated HS). In reality, most possessed even greater fortunes. Schiedel and Friesen estimate the average senator was worth over HS5 million and drew annual incomes of more than HS300,000.
After the senators came the equestrians. Originally the Roman army’s cavalry, they evolved into a commercial class after senators were banned from business deals in 218 B.C. An equestrian’s holdings were worth on average about HS600,000, and he earned an average of HS40,000 per year. The decuriones, or city councilmen, occupied the step below the equestrians. They earning about HS9,000 per year and held assets of around HS150,000. Other miscellaneous wealthy people drew incomes and held fortunes of about the same amount as the decuriones.
In total, Schiedel and Friesen figure the elite orders and other wealthy made up about 1.5 percent of the 70 million inhabitants the empire claimed at its peak. Together, they controlled around 20 percent of the wealth.
These numbers paint a picture of two Romes, one of respectable, if not fabulous, wealth and the other of meager wages, enough to survive day-to-day but not enough to prosper. The wealthy were also largely concentrated in the cities. It’s not unlike the U.S. today. Indeed, based on a widely used measure of income inequality, the Gini coefficient, imperial Rome was slightly more equal than the U.S.
The CIA, World Bank, and other institutions track the Gini coefficients of modern nations. It’s a unitless number, which can make it somewhat tricky to understand. I find visualizing it helps. Take a look at the following graph.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XDHyyI4j6ts/UyYlqYyO1lI/AAAAAAAAAUc/IAzuJlfYylQ/s1600/gini.png

To calculate the Gini coefficient, you divide the orange area (A) by the sum of the orange and blue areas (A + B). The more unequal the income distribution, the larger the orange area. The Gini coefficient scales from 0 to 1, where 0 means each portion of the population gathers an equal amount of income and 1 means a single person collects everything. Schiedel and Friesen calculated a Gini coefficient of 0.42–0.44 for Rome. By comparison, the Gini coefficient in the U.S. in 2007 was 0.45.
Schiedel and Friesen aren’t passing judgement on the ancient Romans, nor are they on modern day Americans. Theirs is an academic study, one used to further scholarship on one of the great ancient civilizations. But buried at the end, they make a point that’s difficult to parse, yet provocative. They point out that the majority of extant Roman ruins resulted from the economic activities of the top 10 percent. “Yet the disproportionate visibility of this ‘fortunate decile’ must not let us forget the vast but—to us—inconspicuous majority that failed even to begin to share in the moderate amount of economic growth associated with large-scale formation in the ancient Mediterranean and its hinterlands.”
In other words, what we see as the glory of Rome is really just the rubble of the rich, built on the backs of poor farmers and laborers, traces of whom have all but vanished. It’s as though Rome’s 99 percent never existed. Which makes me wonder, what will future civilizations think of us?
Source:
Scheidel, W., & Friesen, S. (2010). The Size of the Economy and the Distribution of Income in the Roman Empire Journal of Roman Studies, 99 DOI:10.3815/007543509789745223
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Appendix B
GINI in descending order per country where available .
Rank
Country
Value
Date of Info
1
.
63.2
1995
2
.
63.1
2005
3
.
63.0
1993
4
.
62.9
1989
5
.
61.3
1993
6
.
59.7
2010
7
.
59.2
2001
8
.
58.5
2011
9
.
57.7
2007
10
.
55.1
2007
11
.
53.7
2011
12
.
53.6
2009
13
.
53.2
2009
14
.
53.0
2010
15
.
52.1
2009
16
.
51.9
2010 est.
17
.
51.9
2012
18
.
50.9
1996
19
.
50.8
2004
20
.
50.4
2001
21
.
50.3
2009
22
.
50.2
1998
23
.
50.1
2006
24
.
49.0
2010
25
.
48.3
2008
26
.
47.8
2012
27
.
47.7
Dec 2012
28
.
47.5
2001
29
.
47.4
2012
30
.
47.2
2010 est.
31
.
46.9
2007
32
.
46.8
2000
33
.
46.2
2009
34
.
46.0
2010
35
.
46.0
2011
36
.
45.8
2009
37
.
45.6
2008
38
.
45.5
2004
39
.
45.3
2010
40
.
45.3
2007
41
.
45.0
2007
42
.
44.8
2009
43
.
44.6
2001
44
.
44.6
2007
45
.
44.5
2006
46
.
44.3
2009
47
.
43.7
2003
48
.
43.2
2009
49
.
42.5
2008 est.
50
.
42.4
1998
51
.
41.9
2011
52
.
41.7
2011
53
.
41.5
2008
54
.
41.3
2001
55
.
40.9
2007 est.
56
.
40.8
1998
57
.
40.5
2010
58
.
40.2
2010
59
.
40.1
2001
60
.
40.0
2005 est.
61
.
40.0
FY08/09
62
.
39.7
2007
63
.
39.5
2007
64
.
39.4
2005-06
65
.
39.4
2007
66
.
39.2
2008
67
.
39.0
2011
68
.
39.0
2004
69
.
39.0
2000
70
.
39.0
2006 est.
71
.
38.5
2007
72
.
38.0
2008
73
.
37.9
2008 est.
74
.
37.7
2005
75
.
37.6
2007
76
.
37.6
2008
77
.
37.6
2008
78
.
36.8
2003
79
.
36.8
2009
80
.
36.8
2004
81
.
36.7
2008
82
.
36.5
2008
83
.
36.5
2003
84
.
36.2
1997
85
.
36.2
2007
86
.
35.5
2009
87
.
35.3
1995
88
.
35.2
2010
89
.
34.5
2008
90
.
34.4
2001
91
.
34.2
2011
92
.
34.1
2009
93
.
34.0
2007
94
.
33.9
2010
95
.
33.7
2008
96
.
33.4
2007
97
.
33.2
2011
98
.
33.2
2005
99
.
33.0
2005
100
.
32.8
2010
101
.
32.7
2008
102
.
32.6
2006
103
.
32.1
2005
104
.
32.0
2005
105
.
32.0
2010
106
.
31.9
2007 est.
107
.
31.9
2011
108
.
31.3
2010
109
.
31.0
2009
110
.
30.9
2007
111
.
30.9
2008
112
.
30.7
2011 est.
113
.
30.6
FY07/08
114
.
30.3
2008
115
.
30.0
FY05/06
116
.
30.0
2000
117
.
29.6
2010
118
.
29.0
2005
119
.
28.9
2011
120
.
28.2
2008
121
.
28.2
2009
122
.
28.0
2006
123
.
28.0
2005
124
.
27.4
2011
125
.
27.2
2008
126
.
27.0
2006
127
.
26.8
2008
128
.
26.3
2007
129
.
26.0
2005
130
.
26.0
2005
131
.
25.0
2008
132
.
24.8
2011 est.
133
.
24.7
2009
134
.
24.3
2010
135
.
23.8
2011
136
.
23.0
2005
137
.
NA
NA

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Appendix C
Calculation of optimal reserves

Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Infinite Probes2
Infinite Probes 2
Andre Willers
30 April 2008

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/ “Infinite Probes’

From discussing this with various recipients , there seems to be a need for a simpler explanation . I thought I had explained it in the simplest fashion possible . The subject matter is inherently complex .

But , here goes .

How much must you save ?
If you save too little , a random fluctuation can wipe you out .
If you save too much , you lose opportunity costs . If you are in competition , this loss can be enough to lose the competition (ie you die)

Intuitively , you can realize there is an optimum level of saving .

Methods exist of calculating this optimum in very specific instances (ie portfolios of shares ,eg Kelly criteria , or tactics in war eg MiniMax ) .

The General Case
We need to hold a Reserve in case Something goes wrong . But we do not know what thing goes wrong .

Infinite Probes tries to answer the general case . What is really , really surprising is that a answer is possible .

The Infinite bit comes from using the mathematical expansion of the Definition of Eulers Constant e = ( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
Where n!= n*(n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)*…*(1)

This approaches a constant , widely used in mathematics and physics .
(e = 2.718…) .

All we need is a system that can be subdivided indefinitely (to infinity) .

First , we divide by 1
Then 2
Then 3
Then 4

And so forth till infinity .

What is important is not that we do know what these divisions are , only that they are possible . We also do not know which one element goes wrong .

The other critical insight is that it is the relation between elements that is important . (Permutations) (The failure of an element in total isolation cannot affect the whole system by definition .)

We can count the number of relationships where there is failure of one element .
It is n! , where n is number of divisions where only one failure .

Multiple failures are handled by summing :

Our Reserve(R ) is divided by n to infinity and summed .

TotReserve= R*( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
TotReserve= R * e

To find the boundaries of our Reserve , we set TotReserve = Cost

Then

R = 1/e * Cost
R ~ 0.37 * Cost

What does this mean?
This method measures the upper boundary of the reserve needed to survive failures in any element of the Cost-Universe . Ie , internal fluctuations .

This is the surprising bit . Any society that keeps at least 37% reserves , can only be destroyed by something outside it’s envelope . It is internally stable , no matter what .

Empires like the Ancient Egyptians , Romans , Chinese are possible , as long as there is no climactic fluctuation , new inventions , diseases ,etc . Rare events . Hence the technological stasis of old civilizations . The two are synonymous .

This is true at any scale (except quantal , by definition.) .

Individuals too . Humans can be seen as empires of noospheres .

The upper boundary does not take any double-counting into account . It is true for any system whatsoever .

A truly remarkable precise result from such general axioms .

The Lower Boundaries .
This is where it gets interesting .
Remember , we are just counting the number of ways in which permutations of one element can fail . We then sum them to get the effect of the failures of other elements

The easiest is the business that just starts and is not selling anything . It fails on n elements on every term . It’s floor capital must then be
R=Cost/(1+e)
R=0.27*Cost

This is the initial reserve to get off the ground .
This is true in any ecosystem . This is why it is so difficult to start a new business , or why a new species cannot succeed . Or why waves of pandemics are scarcer .

For the epidemically minded , this 10% difference is responsible for the demise of the Black Death ( smallpox outcompeted bubonic plaque variants for the CR5 access site.Ironically , the reason why we have only a limited HIV plague is the high competition for this site , probably some flu vectors . As one would expect , the incidence of HIV then becomes inversely proportional to connectivity (ie flights) .

A cessation of airplane flights will then lead to a flare-up of diseases like these .
Not exactly what anybody has in mind . )

When we find that we really need the spread of infectious vectors to stay healthy , then we know we have really screwed ourselves .

These are the two main boundaries .
The literature is full of other limits the series can approach . Keep a clear head on what the physical significance is .

Fat
I cannot leave the subject without the thing closest to human hearts : appearance .
Fat and fitness .
Sadly , the present fad for leanness is just that . The period of superfluous food is coming to an end .
Rich individuals can afford to be lean because the reserves are in the monetary wealth Women have to bear children individually , so they cannot store the needed reserves externally . Hence their fat storage is close to the theoretical optimum even in Western societies (33%) . In other societies the percentage is about 37-40% .

Human males have been bred (Mk III humans) for muscle and little fat (8% in a superbly fit male) . He does not have reserves to withstand even garrison duty (even little diseases will lay him low .) Note the frequent references to diseases laying whole armies low .

Note what is left out : the camp-followers . They survived The women and babyfat children . Every army seeded the invaded area with women and children .

The bred soldier has to eat a high-carb food frequently : not meat or fat , his body cannot store it . This is the definition of a wheat-eating legionary .

Ho ! Ho! Ho!
The Atkinson diet .
No wonder it does not make sense in evolutionary terms .
Mesomorphic humans have been bred not to transform expensive proteins and fats into bodymass .

The soldier-class were kept on a carbohydrate leash , which could only be supplied by farming .


The Smell of Horses .

Horses exude pheromones that promote body-leanness in humans . This has an obvious advantage to horses . Horses are breeding jockeys .

The time-span is enough : at least 8 000 years . (400 generations)

Because pregnant women cannot ride horses , there was a selection pressure to breed horses who have a pheromone that block female dominance pheromones , especially since females have to weigh more because of fat-reserve considerations .

Outside a farming environment , horses will sculpt their riders as much as the riders are sculpting them .

Small Mongolian ponies , small Mongolians .

This is why alpha-males like horses and horse-dominated societies were able to conquer and keep matriarchies .

Note the effect of the pheromones on women riders . Androgeny .
On males it becomes extreme blockage of oestrogen . It seems like a surge of male hormones , but it is just an imbalance . (If too much male hormones , the men just kill their horses )

This is why the auto-mobile had such a big sociological effect . No horses , so the men became more effeminate .

Want to be Lean and Mean ?
Sniff Horse sweat pheromone .
Perfumiers take note .

Dogs

The other leg of the human-horse-dog triumvirate .
Dogs accept female pack-leaders and have evolutionary reasons for blocking horse inhibitions of human female pheromones .

While the males are away , the females look after and rely on the dogs .
(The reason why Mongols ride from yurt to yurt: they are too scared of the dogs.)

With dogs around , the male testosterone activity is ameliorated . This is a well known effect , especially if horses are around .

Hence the female love of lap-dogs . They are actually quite ferocious , and exude large amounts of pheromones that soothes the savage male breast .

Your attention is drawn to the Pekinese lapdog , which has had a disproportionately large effect on human history .

If this sounds convoluted , it is because this is exactly how this type of bio-system operates : by inhibitions of inhibitions of inhibitions ,etc .

Andre

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Appendix D
Neo-Vikings


Andre Willers
8 Feb 2014
Synopsis:
Raid-or-Trade is coming back in fashion as social orders collapses .

Discussion :
1.Climate shifts cause social disruptions .

2.This causes degradation in defence capabibilties .

3.Opportunistic raiders take advantage .

4.Past :
4.1Sea Peoples
or 

4.2 Vikings
Essentially , climate change weakened civilized defensive systems and also forced barbarians to go a-Viking .
“Modern history has its origins in the tumultuous 6th and 7th centuries. During this period agricultural failures and the emergence of the
plague contributed to: (1) the demise of ancient super cities, old Persia, Indonesian civilizations, the Nasca culture of South America,
and southern Arabian civilizations; (2) the schism of the Roman Empire with the conception of many nation states and the re-birth of
a united China; and (3) the origin and spread of Islam while Arian Christianity disappeared. In his book, Catastrophe An Investigation
into the Origins of the Modern World, author David Keys explores history and archaeology to link all of these human upheavals to
climate destabilization brought on by a natural catastrophe, with strong evidence from tree-ring and ice-core data that it occurred in
535 AD. With no supporting evidence for an impact-related event, I worked with Keys to narrow down the possibilities for a volcanic
eruption that could affect both hemispheres and bring about several decades of disrupted climate patterns, most notably colder and
drier weather in Europe and Asia, where descriptions of months with diminished sun light, persistent cold, and anomalous summer
snow falls are recorded in 6th-century written accounts.”



4.3 Formosans

Something similar happened (from genetic evidence) in Formosa to trigger the population of the Pacific Islands .
Other cultural traits often point to Taiwan as the strong link in spreading Australasian-speaking people and their traditions through Southeast Asia and the Pacific.
Indeed Australasian people migrated via extraordinary maritime journeys as far as Madagascar in the west, Easter Island in the east, Hawaii in the north and New Zealand in the south. These migrants propagated their cultural traditions, often modified to suit local conditionshttp://cdncache-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png and preferences.
- See more at: http://australianmuseum.net.au/BlogPost/Science/Our-Global-Neighbours-Pacific-culture-ancestry-in-Formosa#sthash.gm3tTliE.dpuf


5.Future :
5.1 States lose the control of armed force .
This has already happened . Private security (essentially private armies ) ( cf Condottierry) offers services to wealthy individuals whishing to escape .

5.2 The traditional route to escape these troubles is by sea . But with newish technology , you need a fleet . Single ships simply won’t hack it .

5.3 Postulated  Scenario :
Social order in RSA collapses .
The region is wealthy . It has a large shipbuilding industry . Also large private security companies.
Armed to the teeth , with very sophisticated logistics .
People flee via ships . They have to survive . They arm . They can only survive in large groups with heavy arms . Funding then has to be done via Viking-type raid-settlement-trade .

Do not worry about the primitive Somali pirates .
South African pirates fleets will be much worse , although a bit more professional .

I did not expect this .
But should have .
Oh Well .
Andre
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Appendix RRR

Friday, January 04, 2013
Information Age Strategy
Andre Willers
4 Jan 2013
Synopsis :
Strategically , the Information Age is like the Light Horse Nomads vs the Knights-and-Castles defense , or Navy vs Outpost system .

 
Discussion :


1.Hackers , pedophiles and similar nasties can strike from anywhere in the world (Huns , Mongols ) . Or a deepwater navy .


2.A Defensive Structure (Castle or Outpost = computer security) is insufficient . A striking force (Knights or Counter Navy) is also needed .
Else the attackers can dismantle the defences at their leisure .


3. Aggressive Counter Hacking . (Knights , Navy)
4. What happened historically ?
Even where they won (China) , the Ming rebellion eventually destroyed the Mongols after centuries of bloody warfare .
In the West , the Castles-and-Knights defense held . (Barely )
In both cases , it resulted in tighter centralised control , as agricultural and co-operative systems maximised their advantages .

 
In the Naval case , it ended with the Glorious Revolution of 1688 . The naval empires (English and Dutch) amalgamated and carved up the world between them , squeezing out other competitors in the succeeding century (1759)
The Glorious Revolution,[a] also called the Revolution of 1688, was the overthrow of King James II of England (James VII of Scotland and James II of Ireland) by a union of English Parliamentarians with the Dutch stadtholder William III of Orange-Nassau (William of Orange). William's successful invasion of England with a Dutch fleet and army led to his ascending of the English throne as William III of England jointly with his wifeMary II of England.
An Interesting aside :
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Westminster_(1674) . Lots of skulduggery leading up to the Great Merger . the Dutch realized they were too small to survive and needed a Big Brother . Hopefully the same common sense still holds . As I said , they survived for a long time and will cut their losses if forced to .

 
5.The same is happening today , only faster.
See Appendix IA .
The three major knights (DARPA , Russian Champions , Chinese Red Army) already have de-facto cooperation agreements about Lawless Nomads .
6.What does mean for Freedom of Information and the Internet ?
While the Internet might have started as a network to bypass damage , it has been undone by it's success . A few router farms have grown to handle the traffic , and they are vulnerable . But more telling , the Knights (like Darpa) are putting controls on the wild elements . Using aggressive counters .
Look what happened to Iran's nuclear program .
Not exactly a New World Order , but heading there .
Good thing or bad thing ?
Who knows . But from the history example , a major World Unitary Understanding is inevitable , has indeed already happened .

 
7.What about Europe ?
Sigh . See Appendix IA .
Clutching all , they stand to lose all .
"Oh my daughter , oh my ducats"
Their window of opportunity (especially the Dutch) is rapidly closing . An Ostrum Deal can still be made . But they will have to get a move on .
Brussels is trying to recreate the old Roman Empire model . Ostrum systems are too formidable competitors in the Information Age .

 
A Mega-Merger anyone ?

 
The first knight that marries the distressed maiden will dominate till the Singularity .

 
Andre

 
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Appendix I A
Bilderbergers : SuperHeroes or SuperVillains?
Andre Willers
11 Dec 2012
"Give me chastity and continence , but not yet." St Augustine
Synopsis:
Humans act in irresponsible ways , threatening their future survival . They know this , but expect some outside agency (SuperHero , God , Technology , etc) to save them from themselves .

 
Discussion :
1. I use the term Bilderbergers as a convenient label for the Interest group of capitalists concerned about the long-term survival of their descendants , and the concommittant plebeians .
2.Origin :
The Lowlands of North-Western Europe (present Holland , Belgium , Flanders) did not de-civilize or de-populate at the fall of the Western Roman Empire . Ie , Roman-Dutch Law , technological advancement in powertools (windmills , weaving) , sailing , commerce , etc .
See any Economic History textbook .
This laid the foundations of structures like the VOC , the Great Amalgamation with England (1688 Velvet Revolution- see Ferguson) , Limited Liability Companies , Stock Exchanges , etc .
Large capital concentrations that used technological advances , but under controlled conditions .
Then Jethro Tull and his Planter happened in 1700 AD . There was no coherent policy . The pulse of wealth created more pulses of wealth and Europe descended into a welter of war that has not stopped to this day .
In this process , technologies were created and used that threatens the ecosystem everybody depends on .
Like sitting on a branch while sawing it off . And paying bonuses to those who saws fastest .
Insane .
A typical Tragedy of the Commons , you say .
The Bilderbergers at present have no coherent strategy . They are but a bunch of very rich persons worried about the survival and legacy for their descendants , but without much idea what to do about it (except dominance , a proven failed strategy – cf Napoleon , Arab spring , etc ) .
Far from being the Masters of the Universe , they are a group with wildly divergent interests , with no coherent strategy , in competition with the Russians , Chinese and DARPA . At serious risk .
3.Ostrum – an unlikely SuperHeroine
A way out of the Tragedy of the Commons .
But it needs some clout (that pesky para 8 – see Appendix II)
A proven strategy .
3.Organizations like China nad Russia and DARPA are already applying it . Hence the high growth rates .
4.Another one is DARPA (see Appendix I) . The west's counter to USSR's Science Cities . Controlled openness won . Notice how quickly the Chinese copied it . A winning strategy .
5.Europe is trying the same with Bilderbergers .
But they need to take some lessons from Ms Ostrum . This should not be so onerous , as many sub-systems in their civilization are already using the Ostrum Principles . A Quiet Revolution .

 
6. Heroes or villains ?
The power of free information and capital cannot be gainsaid , but the excesses of sociopaths in control of major corporations like Enron cannot be countenanced .
The trick is to balance them .
7. The SuperHeroes are sitting this one out . Humans can , for once , solve their own problems .
But I suppose the Chinese , DARPA or Bilderbergers will do it for them if they cannot even ensure their own survival .

 
8.An interesting aside :
Jungian prescience in the 1930's would be mass hysteria like Godzilla (US bombing of Japan 1945) , or Frankenstein in early 1800's (automation) , vampires in late 1900's (AI's) , SuperHeroes 1900' s (Oops! We messed up ! Save us ! But don't ask us to do anything .)
The SpiderMan meme ("With great power comes great responsibility" ) can be discussed at leisure with Genghis Khan before he lops of your head . Or a wizard of Enron before he shuts of the power , or a banker before he kicks you out on the street .
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed by the blood of tyrants and patriots . " Jefferson
Things are bubbling at the moment . It is for this exact reason that the supervillains would be inclined to be reasonable given a logical alternative to mutual destruction .
And if they are not logical ? Oh well .

 
9."Does anybody know what he is doing ?"
The heartfeld cry from the humans , acting like sheep .They blame everybody except themselves for the actions of their chosen representatives .
When their extinction looms , they suddenly realise their chains of debt and pay their obligation to Gaia by fertilizing the planet .
Overdrawn at Gaia's Bank and Casino .
And the enforcers are at the door .
(Maybe they can get a short-term , high-interest loan from those friendly Scientists)

 
10. Another interesting aside .
If the Bilderbergers don't get their act together , DARPA , the Russians and the Chinese will eat them alive . After being billionaires , they could easily end up labouring in the fields they used to own . (Happened during the last Great Disturbance (Napoleon)) .
11. Even another interesting aside : The Russian equivalent .
Vladimir Putin laid it out when he was still a lowly colonel in the KGB : Russian Champions (his term . State sponsored private enterprise . Basically the origin of the Oligarchs (same as Larry Ellison with Oracle)) . A DARPA recipe .
They are all using variants of the same Ostrum principles . Remember , Ostrum published in 1990 . All these systems developed after that . The Quiet Revolution . Something that actually worked .

 
12. Which brings us back to the Bilderbergers : they are busy losing . Far from getting a grip , they are being eaten alive by DARPA , Russia and Chinese . The mess in Europe is the death struggles of a system which could not adapt .

 
13. The end of the Roman Empire
Like a bump in the carpet , the Roman empire kept on resurfacing . Roman Catholic Church , Greek Orthodox , Dutch , Swiss . The Dutch have lasted the longest (2 000 years , not bad) . But I would not write them off yet . Another trick like the Great Merger with Britain in 1688 , but this time with
Russia, China or DARPA is quite within their capabilities . They have a lot to offer . And they are not under the gun . But they will lose if they continue the way they are going .

 
14. So much for the Bilderbergers .
We have merely swapped king log for wannabe king stork .

 
15.As the Singularity rolls in , a peasant can take satisfaction that as money is equalized , at least his money is equalized less . But long before that , he will have to get of his lazy ass and take charge of his or her own life .

 
16. Poor little rich men . The Bilderbergers are quite rightly running scared . None of the competing systems (especially the Russian ones) will have any mercy . As much mercy as what was shown them . What comes around . Oh Well , Ostrum left mercy for the religions .

 
17. Isn't history exciting ?
When I started writing this , I thought the Bilderbergers had the upper hand , but as the argument progressed I could see they are desperate . The Ostrum Principles are eating them alive . Literally . Taking away resources .
The Predators are called DARPA , Russia , Chinese , but all the same thing .
The Unity of Europe is dead . The Ostrum Principles works best on small scales .Except for that pesky para 8 . I thought the breakdown of Europe would lead to incessant warfare . This would have been true if not for the presence of three competing Ostrum Systems : DARPA , Russia , China .
Europe then classifies as a failed state , mainly due to the incompetency of its bureaucracy (Brussels)
The same thing that sunk the old Roman Empire . They never learn .
Expect some fancy footwork by the Dutch . Well , they have been doing this for at least 2 000 years and still going strong . Masters at betrayal .

 
So much for the Bilderburgers.

 

 
18. Controlled break-up up EU .
Greece and Italy as semi-autonomous provinces of China is quite possible . Their own currencies and economies , like hong Kong . Subject to Ostrum Principles . The probability is nearly unity . The command and Control economies cannot compete with Ostrum principles .
The Russian Champions (Oligarchs) and DARPA Champions will be right in there .
Greed and Stupidity will get its own reward .

 
And so the human dance goes .
Andre

 
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Appendix I
DARPA
"Creating and Preventing Strategic surprise"
Their Mission Statement for once is spot on .
To do this it needed more than control . It needed enthusiastic , well-rewarded open participation . But under it's control . The Recipe of an Ostrum System .
Note the successes of Oracle , Internet , GPS ,Siri , etc to mention only a few .
Also note the absence of former adversaries .
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Appendix II
A very short summation .
Professional and Ostrum .
Andre Willers
25 Nov 2012
Synopsis:
We analyse demands on the Professional's attention using Ostrum Metarules .
Discussion :
The eight actual metarules are in Appendix I .A below . Humans do not have the capability of grasping or seeing them all at once , so we will have to do them item-by-item .

 
Can humans actually "grow"" to encompass all the 27 Rules necessary and Sufficient to describe the Universes ? . Not difficult at all . They then create new Universes , but make them more interesting by pinching boundaries .

 

 

 
1.The Common Resource is all the Information Demanding systems wanting a portion of the Professional's attention .
2.Tragedy of the Commons variant .
Exploitation of the free information to the max , with attempts to inhibit certain channels . Doomed to failure . The resource is effectively infinite , because (A + ~A < Universum) . No constraint is possible in the long term .
Short term constraints are possible .
3.Network Theory :
"Small worlds" networks are the general human networks of pushing information . This simply means that most information is sent and handled by "close" nexi , but there are long-range neurons that carry information to other nexi (or mirror networks) .
4.First Pass on Overstimulation of Information :
Simply pass it on to onto the subsidiary networks , except for Amygdala Interrupts . (See Appendix II)
5. Second pass :
Correlations have been made at very low levels . Rethinks .
6. Third and n'th passes :
You get the drift . The system refines itself through feedback processes .
7.Predictive rewards :
This is where we get to the nitty-gritty of Ostrum Systems .
Any farming system , agricultural or not, foregoes present reward for future benefits . You have to get Oabout eight things right to make a living .
Thoe domain of dopamine-systems . Once you enter it , you cannot leave it .

 
8. Humans farm the noosphere the same as they farm the land . But that same pesky 8'th term disturbs things . The relationship to higher Beth(x) beings . The disturbance is built-in and unavoidable.
9. Osrtum managed to get 7/8 system rules independent of the observer . A significant accomplishment .
What does this mean ? Small scale systems can be predicted and manipulated .
10. This means you !
A Small thing , but my own .
Andre
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Appendix I
The only Game in town .

 
The Ostrum Game

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