Friday, May 26, 2006

Birdflu Survival Up

Birdflu Survival  Update –8 
Dated 26/05/2006
On Your Marks!
The race is about to go to the starting blocks .

At the end below is a report which seems to indicate that human-human transmission has chained .

In previous human-human transmission cases , the transmission was :

Chicken -> human(1) -> many humans in contact with human(1) only .
The virus could easily be contained . Quarantine is very effective .

However , in this case the transmission was :
Chicken -> human(1) -> human(2) -> human(3) -> ? .

The virus according to report has not mutated . How can they know ? There has been no time for a full gene-sequencing . So they only looked at some markers .

This raises the spectre of Priming .

Priming .
In general :
Lethality remains switched off until triggered by the environment .
It must be emphasized that is a dynamic process driven purely by evolution .

The body contains many potentially lethal biosystems (call them the Pirates) whose predations are kept in check by the body’s counter  system (call it the Navy ) . Then there are also the legitimate activities ( call them the Merchants).

Evolution :
Merchants would be the first , with Pirates an extremely close second . The Navy would have evolved after mitochondria ( which would be Pirates turned into Merchants by symbiosis with Mitochondria .) The Merchants with Mitochondria can now afford to hire privateers (former Pirates ) . They pay them with energy and convert them into Navy .
This makes multi-cellular organisms possible .

Combinations possible:
Navy – Navy  ( Body attacks its own immune system)
Navy – Pirates (The intended function)
Navy – Merchant ( Autoimmune , etc)

Pirate – Pirate ( the baddies zap each other , privateers bribed by Merchants)
Pirate – Navy ( overwhelming , infiltrating or undermining the immune system)
Pirate – Merchant (the originating robbery :diseases)

Merchant – Merchant ( normal competition within an co-operative network)
Merchant – Pirate (bribing Pirates and converting them to privateers and then Navy)
Merchant – Navy ( paying Navy with goods , energy and information)

Flags of Convenience.
Many Pirates fly flags of convenience , and as long as they do no harm , the Navy tolerates them .

If the Navy tries to board everyone , they quickly run out of resources . They can only afford to check the known Pirates . In our polluted environment , the number of chemicals unknown to the Navy is increasingly very rapidly . An intriguing speculation is that some metabolic abnormalities like Diabetes  is an attempt by the Navy to get more resources , but hobbled by some bottleneck in resources .

Look at the super-immune systems :
Crocodiles and sharks . Crocs are the best .
The croc can hibernate : H2S mechanism . This must perfuse the whole system to be effective . Once it is switched off , the whole immune system (and selected metabolic systems) has to go into overdrive to get enough energy to the immune system to fuel the identification and blocking of any chemical . Remember , that crocs have been doing this for about 200 million years . Asteroid impacts are ho-hum . Acidification of the ocean ? Just bubble it through your teeth for Coke . Hot , cold ,dry wet ,etc

But they evolved it quite early , so the last couple of hundred million years do not count , except to show that it freezes gene , epigenetic , retro-virus and cultural systems . Mutation as well . Notice that the present croc is very similar to the one 200 MY ago . This is nearly inconceivable , except for there it is .

The only similarity in the surviving crocs is their environment : alteration between oxygen-rich and oxygen-poor .(Up and down in the water) Not much promise .

But crocs are equivalent to live-birth sharks and mammals , only slightly better : the eggs and the live young are carried in their mouths for a significant period of time . The decaying meat between its teeth generates enough H2S to kick in suspended animation in the small fry . The biggie will probably have evolved (albeit slowly) to be very sensitive to low concentrations of H2S .

The decay also generates methane (CH4) . It stashes its prey underwater , where anaerobic rotting produces more CH4 than H2S . Remember that the beastie’s mechanisms are 200 MY old and must have evolved in an oxygen rich atmosphere .

Basically , it means that something in the crocs mouth causes an epigenetic-like effect on its offspring .

What can it be ?
It must be a simple chemical . (Old). To be a signal , it must not be common . (Shannon) It must really speed up the metabolism in the same concentrations as H2S (as they evolved at the same time) .
Oxygen-type metabolisms must be switched on without upper boundaries : like what one would expect in the ur-methane atmosphere . In other words , the presence of methane stimulated ur-bacteria to utmost metabolic activity to make oxygen (standard evolutionary theory ) .The oxygen metabolism is then at max without stoppers .

Methane (CH4) springs to mind .

Crocs and sharks use a whipsaw effect between H2S and CH4 to freeze any change
( and be effectively immortal . The price is no evolution)
It only works for a multicellular organism:

How it works :
It is a cycle effect .
H2S reduces the metabolism quickly to very low levels.
CH4 supercharges the metabolism , out of the frozen state , but not all at once , since it thaws in layers . The highly energetic layers are templated on the H2S-frozen templates in the DNA and Epigenetic processes .

It is like remembering something by repeating it continuously.
The error rate is zero as long as the message is less or equal to the short-term memory.
In genetic terms , the short-term memory is the genome and epigenetic terms bound to it . But not Cultural systems.

Awesome .

The moment the Navy shows weakness or the Pirates count noses and sense that they have to attack immediately to share in the spoils (the tragedy of commons ) , they hoist the Jolly Roger and haul out the cannons .
Many Merchants might even join in .

But all Pirate captains are not equal . Some are much , much worse than others . The really evil captains’ progeny spread in a statistical fashion . The plague ones who are only one mutational jump away from lethality will display superior multiplying and spreading ability (otherwise they will not be plagues) . They will also think similarly and react similarly to the triggering situations .
They will be all over , spread by the mobility inherent in the Civilization of Cells or Nations .

This is known as Priming .

At some point , local conditions cause the last fateful mutation . The same conditions are likely to be repeated in the ambit of the contact sphere . The same mutation results in a statistically significant number of lethality  cases , as well as contagious triggering .

The resulting pandemic seems to arise from multiple sources ,  It is like a kettle coming to boil . Some bubbles do start others , but many are just from random , chaotic stimuli triggering the lethality .

Unfortunately , pandemics like these seems to be a logical consequence of connectivity (ie mobility of gene or meme markers ).

This is independent of whether the information is in genes or memes .

In other words , a lot of mobility like an Empire or Globalization will inevitably mean a plague , either bacterial/viral or meme. (Like Nazism , communism ,etc)

What to do :
Alternating (80 ppm H2S) with ( 80 ppm CH4 + mega sugar + multimineral + multivitamin ) should at least halt aging .

Stem cell effects:
The same regime effects limb regeneration in crocs and sharks .
So , getting younger is not impossible .

Eternal Youth !


Andre Willers


The Report. 

Bird flu team 'too late' for answers
Clara Pirani, Medical reporter
May 26, 2006
DELAYS in the investigation of the world's largest outbreak of bird flu may prevent health officials from ever knowing if human-to-human transmission of the disease killed six members of the same family in Indonesia.
A team of the world's leading avian flu experts has arrived in the remote village of Kubu Sembelang in North Sumatra to investigate the deaths, which occurred during the past three weeks.
However, the director of the World Health Organisation's Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne, Ian Gust, said most of the evidence would already have been destroyed.
"We've found with the investigation of clusters in the past that by the time the investigators get there, it's too late," he said yesterday. "Any infected birds that might have been around have gone or been killed.
"You can't take the adequate samples and you'll never know the cause, and that's a problem."
Indonesian health officials were not responding quickly enough to potential cases of the disease, Dr Gust told The Australian.
"Indonesia is still struggling with it. Vietnam, which had a very serious problem with bird flu, has essentially brought it under control by very vigorous health measures, whereas Indonesia is still getting lots of outbreaks in birds and lots of cases in humans," Dr Gust said.
Vietnam reported 61 cases of bird flu last year, including 19 deaths - significantly more than any other country.
Twenty-two people have died of bird flu in Indonesia this year while Vietnam has experienced no new cases.
Peter Cordingley, spokesman for the WHO's West Pacific region, said investigators were concerned about the cluster of deaths in North Sumatra - the largest to date - and the source of the outbreak.
He said they had not found any infected poultry in the village.
"When we can't find a common outside source, we have to look at the potential for human-to-human transmission," he said.
Infected poultry has been the source of the majority of human infections worldwide. However, the WHO suspects human-to-human transmission may have caused up to half a dozen previous clusters in recent years.
Mr Cordingley said there was no effective test to confirm human-to-human transmission.
"We've had very strong evidence of human-to-human transmission before, but in the end we haven't been able to draw any further conclusions, so we just don't know," he said.
Seven members of the same family in North Sumatra contracted the disease and six have died in the past three weeks.
An eighth family member, the first to become ill, died on May 4, but no samples were taken to confirm the cause of death.
Two of the men who died spent the night of April 29 in a small room with their mother - the first family member to fall ill - who was reportedly coughing frequently. A third son has the disease and is the sole surviving family member.
Another family member, a 32-year-old father, died on Monday after caring for his sick son.
Other infected family members lived in adjacent homes.
The H5N1 virus has killed 124 people since 2003 and more than 30 countries have reported outbreaks in poultry or wild birds.
The WHO has previously warned that clusters of the disease are considerably more dangerous than isolated infections because they raise the possibility that the virus might have mutated, allowing it to spread rapidly among humans, and sparking a pandemic that could kill millions of people.
However, Mr Cordingley said there was no evidence of spread within the general community with the latest cluster.
"Nobody outside the family shows any sign of infection, so we don't have a virus on the run," he said. "The virus samples from those who died shows the virus is not mutating and it shows no new ability to mutate from chickens to humans."