Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Financial Crisis : Petroleum Price Update

Financial Crisis : Petroleum Price Update
Andre Willers
29 Oct 2008

See “Petroleum Price” , “Optimal Markup” and others .

In “Petroleum Price” on 3 July 2008 , when the oil price was $145 a barrel and heading upward , I predicted that the oil-price would fall sharply from about $160 to $50 , then recover to about $80 . The $80 was calculated from basic principles , the $160(=2x80) from “Optimal Markup” and $50 from an estimate of overshoot on the downswing to about the 1/3 Reserve of the maximum price .

There was a strong resistance level at 1/3 of the maximum price . This was the perceived reserve value of oil .
See “Infinite Probes” et al .
Or , to put it another way , about a 2/3 added value was all the system could tolerate .

The actual figures at present time (29 Oct 2008) are $147 tops , falling to about $53 , now slowly rising past the $63 level .

A reasonable fit .

Why did everything else fall ?
Answer : because energy is the basis of our society . And oil is the basis of our energy. I doubt if any than a AI(3.1) can disentangle all the causative loops .

The best we can say is that there is a complicated causative relationship between food , oil , money , commodities , in that order .

The food-price rises in 2007 destabilized the oil-price , which destabilized the money and commodities markets .

The Stock Markets
The markets are in correspondence with the oil price .
It is simplistic to say which started to fall first .

When the fall started , the system had a problem (a huge number of inflated dollars) .
The owners of these dollars had a problem : to keep their money .
The emerging markets were used as the entropy sink (as discussed before) .

All those numbers of dollars , rubles , etc could not go away . We do not have a formal mechanism for the destruction of money (see previous posts) . But we have exchange rates .
See “Financial Crisis 2008 : Exchange Rates” et al .

During the bubble run-up , huge numbers of dollars were created by the credit mechanisms . These were invested in high-yield emerging markets at a good rate of exchange (say R6 to dollar) . When the panic hit , assets were sold and converted back into dollars at say (R12 to the dollar) . That difference in the exchange rate has vanished from the monetary system . Pouf ! The magic of exchange rates .
Note that foreign currencies’ decreases against the dollar was about 50% .

The original dollar investors still make a profit , but on a much more modest scale . In other words , the obscene excesses of the derivitives market vanished down the same financial hole as made by the same people that used them .
The biter bit .

The emerging marketer then sits with a lack of capital and some production machinery .
A few fat-cat banks had to be bailed out for the common good , but nothing serious .

Suddenly , the international number of dollars has decreased by about a half .A much healthier situation . Dollar inflation is suddenly not a problem and interest rates can be decreased .

Is this a train-crash for the emerging markets ?
It would be , if not for the speed of the crash and rebound .

Working capital for emerging markets can be supplied from local and international loans as long as the downturn is limited to a period of months .

The stock markets hit their lowest point when oil was at about $53 . This was when the market indices was about 50% of maximum . This is to be expected , since the market would have been pricing in a near-future oil-price of $80 . (Most big investors did not panic , but were buying .)

The rebound
The number of dollars available for global investment have halved . So , we can expect growth rates to be initially rapid as they re-invest (2-4 months) , then slow to half previous rates , then slowly increase as wealth creation picks up .

But these would be for value , cherry-picked shares in countries with stable currencies and stable political systems .

South African Investments.
The Exchange-rate picture remains bleak .
Political uncertainty until the next elections(with wild talk of nationalizations , tax increases to pay for the dole , interest rate decreases to “stimulate” job creation) as well as a big balance-of-payment deficit does not bode well for attracting a share of the dollar rush in the next 4 months .
Commodity prices will recover slowly .But there will be severe competition from countries like Australia .
Tourism will be under severe pressure from competition from countries like Iceland , Hungary , Ukraine , Zimbabwe , etc , whose currencies tanked .
Until there is better international regulation , currency speculators will target the Rand(like they did in 2000) and drive it down .

Rand-denominated foreign investments seems the best of poor choices .

Japanese and Chinese Foreign currency Reserves
These were in large part in US Treasuries . Their decision not to sell and crash the US dollar led to the situation above . It amounts to deliberate decision to support a global economic system . A very enlightened long-term view . They would lose more in the long term by a depression than they could gain . Also , they made an enormous amount of money , not to mention favours owed .

This is where everybody got it wrong . In a free-market capitalism , they would have sold. But they are Social-Capitalists . Long-term gain matters more .
Can you see why the planetary economic systems will favour Social-Capitalism ?

Still , there would have had to be an enormous amount of trust between China , Japan and the US .

For Conspiracy Theorists .
This controlled crash is a typical AI(3.1) maneuver .
The overview might seem simple , but to actually do it requires data-handling capability of AI(3.1) order .

If this is true , I have to take my hat off to Bush .It is a phenomenal end-run .

There is no way this could have been done without Presidential approval .
The Chinese and Japanese simply would not have co-operated without the US CEO .
They thought that he was stupid and predictable , therefore trustworthy .
They would never have trusted Clinton or Nixon on something like this .

I never thought I would say this , but it seems like Bush was one of those rare US presidents that grew in office.

The US gains a lot from this crisis .
1.It can disengage from the Middle East without loss of face (sorry , no money)
2. The Oil Cartels have been crippled . (sorry , no money)
3.China is saddled with the problem of Pakistan and Afghanistan . (sorry , no money)
4.Inflation has been dealt a serious blow .
5. National production can be stimulated by some judicious subsidies .
6. They can get back to what they are good at , namely making money .
7.An opportunity to draw back from imperial overstretch
8. Concentrate on some serious long-term capital investment (like the space program)

A controlled crash at the end of a US presidential term is much preferable to an uncontrolled crash . And he could sign all those billions of debt bills without huge political problems . (Well , it helps that he knew that that was the best investment the US Government made in the last 40 years ). Still , he signed them , and signed them quickly .

It’s only money .


Sunday, October 26, 2008


Andre Willers
26 Oct 2008

What is money ?
This , funnily enough , is a Hard Question , both in the ordinary and the mathematical sense . It is linked to any sapient past and future .

We try to sneak up on it by looking at what it is not .

1.Money is meaningless to a lone individual .

You cannot eat a coin or a diamond or a note . It only has value if you can interact with another individual and trade .
This sounds trite , but it immediately enables us to apply the powerful algorithms of Artificial Intelligence (see “ Artificial Intelligence” et al .

Money can be described as a language , defining the AI’s (humans) . We all know people whose main sense of self comes from money .

2. If it can’t be counted , it’s not money .

The basis of the long love-affair between science and business .
“If it cannot be put in numbers , it is not Science”

Trade implies repetitiveness over either time or space dimensions . This implies delineation . No fuzzy currencies , thank you .

Since even bacteria can count ( eg quorum systems) , it might be profitable to look at them in monetary terms .
How much will it cost to pay an infection to go away ? A cancer to de-metastize ?
We suspect that large part of the success of the immune system is due to payments of this sort .

3.If it can’t be exchanged for some other currency , it is not money .

The exchange mechanism forces abstraction . Regardless of how many dimensions the currency operates in , there is always one outside it .
(A direct consequence of A plus non-A less than Universum) .
So , any currency must be an abstraction .

Without the Market , there is no money .
This is actually a restatement of Item 1 above , but in terms of groups .

Seller A shops around for the best countable value . But he can only shop around if there is a group of sellers with a spread (uncertainty) of selling prices . The same is true of sellers . This creates the Market .
Market-mechanisms are created by traders watching each other and trying to outguess each other . Infinite sequences are established , especially in time .
This creates the mathematically hard part .

This enables the powerful , symmetry-breaking algorithms as set out in
“ Financial Crisis 2008 : Exchange Rates “ and
“Facebook , ExchangeRate and the Singularity”

4. If it is not a mathematically Hard Question , it is not money .
This means that if there is no uncertainty (risk) , there is no money .

The proof of this is obvious . (It follows directly from Item 3 above)
Second-guessing by both sellers and buyers might have some very fancy mathematical terminology , but they all depend on a measure of uncertainty (the price spread on beth(0))

Hard Questions here is used in the sense of problems whose solutions need computation resources that grow faster than that available to the applicable society .

Computation resources are defined by AI(m) as previously described .
See “Artificial Intelligence” , et al
There is a relationship between computational resources and bandwidth .

Increased bandwidth means an increase in m of AI(m) .

The mere existence of money is a powerful evolutionary force , increasing the bandwidth between segments of AI(x) .

Time-binding (like future promises , interest , etc ) stitches together the fabric of Social-Capitalism . How individuals can work together for the greater good (Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand”)

Because humans are Beth(n>1) , if they are in the loop , they can always think up a scheme that reduces risk .

This involves heavy computation . We are now (2008) living through the wreckage of a period when ALL financial institutions tried to reduce risk to zero .

Reduction of all risks to zero is not possible to any sapient that uses the Axiom of Delineation .

Bounce Back (2008)
The bounce-back will be interesting . Hundreds of thousands of AI(3.0x) individuals are suddenly at liberty to explore different avenues .
See “Facebook , ExchangeRate and the Singularity”

Refer to the Eastern Europe bounce-back after the collapse of Communism .

This collapse of Capitalism will be seen as essential to the Singularity .
Pathways discouraged by capitalism will be aggressively explored by social-combines co-ordinated through high-bandwidth peer-systems such as Face-Book .

Historical Analogue
The Low-Countries’ (Netherlands , Belgium) after the collapse of the Western Roman Empire .

Virtual money
Well , all money is virtual . So-called hard currency like gold simply quibbles about the rate of exchange . The essential point is agreement amongst groups of entities to have a reasonably stable value that can have reasonably stable exchange rates for goods and services , other currencies , and a degree of uncertainty . These are elements (1,2,3,4) above .

As can be surmised , Item 4 is the problematic one , since it is open-ended .

Linden Dollars are now one of the few virtual currencies that have convertability , but this is set to explode .

“The Next big Thing”

Multi-dimensional currencies amongst various virtualities will evolve .
Values which cannot be expressed in dollar terms (ie favours) , but which have countable values and exchange-rates with other currencies .

Parallel-Processing Groups

Example :
Parallel-Processing Groups will make their Attention available at a multi-dimensional price .
A creative FaceBook Group Alpha might sell its future Attention on an Exchange .
(This is already being done in embryo form by virtual markets on decision points .)
The Attention of the FaceBook Group Alpha is split pro-rata to the shareholders’ interest .
The system is inherently parallel-processing .(Why the Attention can be split)
Payment is on negotiation in terms of various currencies of the problem .
A futures market on the various currencies of FaceBook Group Alpha is inevitable , per currency and per FaceBook Group .

As you can see , things are about to get very complicated in a hurry .

Dollars will not be the only currency .
$Newness , $interestingness , $meaningfulness , $for-the-hell-of-itness are some currencies that spring to mind . They still have to be quantified and a range (uncertainty) of exchange values established .

(Something like this has happened many times before in aristocracies , but they never had mechanisms of quantifying it , and , more importantly , establishing exchange rates .The casualty was innovation . The remnants were favours .)

The same as above , only more so .
The interesting thing is that the run-up to the singularity is smooth .

Will this be true of every sapient civilization ?
We refer to Pohl’s Question : “Where are they ?”
Planets are nurseries .

We can say that any sapient civilization that uses money will have smooth run-up to the Singularity .

The question is whether there will be any high-tech remnants after the Singularity .
The answer is usually no .
A responsible civilization will let stay-behinds alone on a replenished planet .
But there is not enough money of various currencies to sustain the infrastructure .
Not enough $Goodwill , $Innovativeness , $Caring , etc.
The society devolves .

Remnants of irresponsible civilizations that allowed replication machinery to remain are gently reminded by the introduction entropy viruses into their replication processes . (Older civilizations are still around)

In any case , it is extremely doubtful whether a Beth(2) civilization could create an entropy-free structure . And immature civilizations usually go into singularity on beth(2) levels .

The Others:
Any expansionist civilization will sooner or later run into a civilization close to the singularity and get smashed for their pains .
To put it into Earth-understandable terms : there can be no forced empire if everyone has nuclear weapons .

The critical thing to watch out for are the exchange rates . Once exchange rates between “Innovativeness” and some realizable value is established , the system will explode into a positive feedback loop . (This has happened before to a lesser degree with the establishment of the Patent Office in the early US.)
See “Infinite Probes” and other arguments .
(Universum minus (A plus non-A) ) is mined for insights . Creativity abounds .

God’s Snowball :
God is the ultimate snowball .
He put his thumb firmly on the scale through the Distributive Axiom of ArithII .

To recapitulate the Distributive Axiom of ArithII .
That xy term is the killer . If x and y are both negative , xy is positive . This breaks the symmetry . Any exchange rate is a multiplication of terms .Symmetry is broken in any exchange rate in an ArithII system .

The underlying system has a tendency to increase at any iteration . The snowball grows bigger . As described , if one integrates it over infinity of values it is 2/3 of basic value .
This is the added value of all the interactions.
This ties in with “Infinite Probes”
The basic observed value has a reserve of 1/3 of the value . This has immediate physical significance with quarks .

To summarise:
Any Universe that has money , has symmetry breaking on exchange-rates in purely physical particle-particle terms . This leads to quark electric charges of multiples of a 1/3 , as well as no negative mass (unless in carefully structured environments) .

A good example of how top-level feedback mechanisms are related to very low-level mechanisms .

Also why singularities are inevitable . Increasing complexity and wealth is built into this Universe .

Humans have to work hard at screwing it up , and so they do with great enthusiasm .

One of the great Reality Shows ..

Human growth rates .
God can thus use financial growth rates to estimate how things are going , without having to count where every sparrow falls . Which is handy . Not only for God , but for humans as well , anxious to know how they are doing vis-à-vis God .

God went to great pains to create an inherent 2/3 gain in the system . The system is fractal . Being fractal , a third of this has a beth(2) probability (2/3/3=0.2222) . Another third has a beth(1) probability (0.074) and another third has a beth(0) probability (2/(3^4)=0.02469)

Interesting is that a beth(-1) probability has a growthrate of (2/(3^5)=0.0082)
Beth(0) means normal chance . Beth(-1) means determinism : a command economy .

Social-Capitalism (China) fluctuates between 7.4% and 22%
Pure Capitalism (USA) fluctuates between 2.5% and 7.4%
Pure Socialism (Cuba) fluctuates between 0.8% and 2.5%

You can see where things are going .
There is room at the top . Call it FaceBookism
FaceBookism fluctuates between 22% and 67%
Going into the Singularity .

The Hoag Rating .
(From “The unpleasant profession of Jonathan Hoag” by Heinlein .)
If you were a Universe Critic , how would you rate our universe?
On a scale of one to five .

I would rate it a two .

It is insufficiently challenging .
The light-speed barrier between solar systems make nice crèches , but does it really prepare a youngling for diversity ? Ditto the absurd conservation laws . Even the indigenes have to use ridiculous make-believes like “potential energy”

The locals even have a term for it : Beta-testing by the user .
As contradictions are observed , the physical laws are patched .

And so it goes .


Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Facebook , Exchange Rates and the Singularity.

Facebook , Exchange Rates and the Singularity.
Andre Willers
21 Oct 2008

As requested .

Discussion :

Descriptive Axioms.
The principle underlying our description of the universe is heavily influenced by our physiology . The fire-nofire structure of neurons tends to an Aristotelian view with a delineated structure . But there are also concentration-gradients of chemicals (ie hormones , neurotransmitters, etc) which are not delineated except at molecular level (and not even at sub-molecular level) .

Axiom of Delineation .
We assume that it makes sense to talk of something separate of something else . In a non-trivial Universum , this means there are a lot of somethings , and they interact .

The way they interact can be described by exchange rates between the separate entities . Notice that this is the definition of relativity .

We use descriptions like energy , information , aledicnander , money , quantum levels , momentum , etc to describe the exchange rates .

Just to make things interesting , Russel , Whitehead , Godel et al proved that this is not internally consistent (ie there are “somethings” which cannot be delineated ).
Being humans , they promptly delineated them and used probabilities in a very loose fashion in wave-mechanics .

So , now we have exchange-rates not only between somethings , but also between non-somethings and all the various permutations thereof .

No wonder quantum mechanics drives them mad !

The metric .
The further thing we need is some way of counting (ie an Arithmetical System) .
The classical one is the Standard one we all learned at school .
Call it ArithII . Its distinguishing characteristic is that the number line does not circle
around and cross itself . (ie a+1 not equal to a)

If it does circle , it is known as an ArithI system .
ArithI plus at least one extra axiom can always be described by ArithII . Think of the extra axiom as the number where the ArithII line crosses itself , and/or the radius . One can add axioms with gay abandon , but the core of ArithII remains .

ArithI generates quantum systems , but these can always be related to ArithII + ExtraAxioms . This is the basis of present quantum physics .

Exchange rates .
See Appendix A . I am not going to go to the trouble of creating another example .
This example alone is enough to make anyone as rich as he wants to be .
In Warren Buffet’s terms , it identifies the Snowball .

The values in the table is the phase-space . Draw any line or curve through them and you describe the path of any system that can be described in two dimensions . Ie any delineated systems (A and non-A) in a non-trivial universe .

Sum the values in the table along the curve .

If the path is Beth(0) random , the value approaches 2/3 of the basic interaction .
Your attention is drawn to quark descriptions .

Charge .
The conclusion is that electric charge is a property of the symmetry break in Beth(0) exchange rates between particles .

The conclusion is that mass is a property of the symmetry break in Beth(n>0) exchange rates between particles .

Mass-Charge Relation .
The conclusion is that mass can be described as a function of Beth(n>0) of charge .
This translates as multiple crossings of the number-line in the phase-space .
Curlicues in the phase-space path .
This is equivalent to spin . (Multiple ArithI systems)

Gravity and Anti-Gravity
The symmetry-break means that this Universe will only have one type of matter (+2/3) . But we can have Beth(m) systems that curlicue in the negative return sections (ie anti-gravity) . These would be functions of mass-charge spin in very specific configurations .

Hint : See stable orbital configurations of two masses . There are hundreds known . Possibly an infinite number . Most are very fancy , the later ones with path crossings .

Summing all possible curlicues gives the value of G.

Inverse square law :
Note the x squared value in the derivation below in Appendix A .
This is derived from a Beth(0) randomness .
Beth(n>0) systems will deviate from this .

Singularity .
A workable definition :
The information flow between two delineated entities approaches infinity .
The bandwidth approaches infinity .

See “ Artificial Intelligence”

The traditional view of the singularity is of a small group using mind-computer interfaces to bootstrap up .

What is happening is that massive number of humans are interacting via social networks like Facebook (ie AI(3.0x) , where x->999999… to AI(3.1) ) .

The effect can be seen , as expected , first in Universities . New ideas and patents are ascribed to genuine idea-associations , not the old leader + team . This is a real effect .

The mechanisms enabled by things like Facebook , are bringing about a factorial increase in the number of interactions between groups and individuals .

This is the definition of increasing the bandwidth between AI(3.0) entities .
An example : it is faster and better to interrogate the AI(3) system to get a datum than to try AI(0) (memory) , AI(1) (ask someone verbally) , AI(2) (look it up in a book)

Mind computer interfaces are then phasing into existing structures without too much fuss . (Except for those outside it , who are left at an extreme and increasing disadvantage .)

There is a real discontinuity here . Quantum systems are inherently different from AI(3.1) systems . They are sufficiently different that we can assign a new dimension to them . We can then use the ExchangeRate mechanism (between AI(4) and the other AI’s ) to really ratchet up the gain .

When and how will this happen ?
Not by small patches . Whole segments of societies will move imperceptibly into the singularity .

Their exchange rates will use larger and larger bandwidth .
Capital (ie usable human knowledge) increases in proportion to bandwidth .

Time Travel .
Think of the phase-space below as being time-independent .
The only interventions locals would notice would be beth(1+) interventions .
Beth(0) interventions would be superfluous , since the system would already incorporate them .
Beth(1+) interventions does happen , but in true human fashion they are swept under the carpet .
Purely technological interventions are far between and extremely difficult .
The only ones I can assign some degree of confidence in is the magnetron in WWII and mass-production of spectacles in the 13th century .
The magnetron is a typical beth(1) technology . Rotation and constriction .
After 5 decades they are still stuck on the waterhole frequency . Even supercomputers won’t help . If they really understood this , they would have tunable lasers .
Hint : use genetic algorithms on the constriction structures and the accellerations of the rotating magnetic field .



Appendix A

Table of % change in Rand Value of Rand-Denominated Foreign Funds
Andre Willers . 16 Oct 2008
See discussion in "Exchange Rates"

Formulae :
V(0)=N*R(0)*DOW(0) where V is rand value , N is number of units , R is rands a $ will buy , DOW in US
V(1)=N*{ R(0)+dR }*{ DOW(0)+dDow } where d-prefix means change
{dV / V(0)} = {dR / R(0)} + {dDOW / DOW(0)} + {dR / R(0) * dDOW / DOW(0) }

Match every row j with every column I
The sum= 2 * (x^2) , where 0<=x<=1
Integrate dV : Value gained = 2 * 1/3 * (1)^3 = 2/3 of Base value .
The Base value is then 1/3 of total Value (ie the the reserve) .
See "Infinite Probes"

= percExchangeRatechange + percDOWchange + (percExchangeRatechange * percDOWchange)/100

Table of % change in Rand Value of Rand-Denominated Foreign Funds
Change in Exchange rate : %Increase in Rands one Dollar will buy .
Shares% -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-10 -19 -18 -17 -16 -15 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
-9 -18 -17 -16 -15 -14 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0.1
-8 -17 -16 -15 -14 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 1.2
-7 -16 -15 -14 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 0 1 2.3
-6 -15 -14 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 2 3.4
-5 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 4.5
-4 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 5.6
-3 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6.7
-2 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7.8
-1 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8.9
0 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 -9.1 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2 -8.2 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3 -7.3 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
4 -6.4 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
5 -5.5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6.1 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16
6 -4.6 -4 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7.1 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17
7 -3.7 -3 -2 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8.1 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18
8 -2.8 -2 -1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9.1 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19
9 -1.9 -1 0 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20
10 -1 0.1 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Financial Crisis 2008 : Exchange Rates.

Financial Crisis 2008 : Exchange Rates.
Andre Willers
16 Oct 2008

Summation :

1 .Economies with different currencies and exchange rates are extremely lucrative in a real basic sense .
2.If the dominant share index growth (we will use the DOW) goes negative , the exchange rates will strongly track the DOW .
3.If the dominant share index growth goes positive , the exchange rates will weakly track the DOW rate .
4. Recovery rates of established economies after a downturn are faster because they use the emerging economies as a chaos (entropy) sink .

Discussion :

Examine the table in Appendix A carefully .
This is applicable to any system that is identifiable and follows at least the distributive
Axioms of Arithmatic .

Notice the breakeven diagonal line from bottom-left to top-right . This is the attractor in this phase-space .
Especially the top-right . As the DOW losses increase , the rand-exchange rate has to track it if no losses are to be sustained .

The systems all track zero losses as goals . Remember , not only do humans think this way , but their computer programs are written this way .

While this was written with rand-denominated fund like AllanGray GlobalOrbis FeederFund in mind , the argument is valid for a foreign investor as well . If there is little likelihood of a rand-exchange strengthening , he has to make a rand profit . Hence , he has to follow the above relationship between DOW and Rand-exchange .

The gain :
Jump through the positions in the table .
The feedback systems ensure that systems spend most of their time in positive return territory . Another way of putting it is that the chances of profit and loss are not equal.
That is not Beth(0) . Not classically random .

But even if it was beth(0) , there would still be a bias to profitability built into the fabric of the universe .

Look at the top left of the table (max 19% loss) to bottom right(21% gain) . The values around them show a similar bias .

This means , that even if you move at beth(0) random through the table , summing the values , you will still end up with a 66.66% gain . This is inherent in the mathematics of this universe. (That pesky third multiplicative term where two negatives multiply to form a positive value : God’s Thumb on the scale.)

This has tremendous significance to any socio-economic system . A 2%+ gain , century after century is a hell of a compound gain . But empires retard it , as there would be no significant exchange rates . Hence the decrease in populations at the height of isolated empires .Cf Roman Empire .

Sigh . So much for World Empire or Galactic Empire .
That 2%+ gap is just too much . No single empire could compete to unify them all .
The world compound growth since 1900 is but about 4% , half of which now seems systemic to multi-nationalism .

Things don’t look too good for compounds like the EU economic zone . They would be better off with fewer zones (eg France , Germany as Euro1 , etc . Not exactly back no national currencies , but more profitable than the present setup . This will probably evolve from the present strains on the system . China’s special Economic Zones are creating similar problems .

Social Capitalism can handle both problems . Divorce the short-term and long-term and connect them with futures (Socialism ) .

Recovery rates and Entropy Sinks :
Think of an entropy sink as the black-hole of all the failed ideas , irrecoverable debts both monetary and morally and generally all the bad things you would prefer to forget.
Also known to the particle-physics trade as symmetry-breaking .
To religionists as forgiveness .

Western civilizations are something of specialists in this .
The twentieth century alone saw the demise of numerous currencies , political systems , empires , countries , etc .
Not to mention the divorce rate .

The meme-machinery to do this has spread planet-wide .
The meme is to cut away and eliminate .
Hitler who ?

The Arms-trade
An interesting corollary is the Arms-Trade .
A real relic , a luxury that will be cut . An interesting form of reserve .

This is a toxic-meme dump site . The arms are merely a small part of it .
The ideal way would be to set up Special-Meme Zones , where persons with toxic memes can be relocated and eliminate themselves . Somalia is a good example .
In any case , the arms-trade is history .
An unlamented casualty of the present crisis .

The Critical Point .
One asks what was the cusp between a new future and a replay of WWII in this crisis ?
It was when Gordon Brown convinced the other states to use investment in the share-capital of banks to save them . This automatically limited the state’s involvement in recovery process .
The temptation to use protectionist legislation was severely limited .
( In the Big Depression of the 1930’s, it was the protectionist cure that killed the system . Like SARS )

All credit to Gordon Brown .

This model has numerous other applications .



Appendix A

Table of % change in Rand Value of Rand-Denominated Foreign Funds
Andre Willers . 16 Oct 2008
See discussion in "Exchange Rates"

Formulae :
V(0)=N*R(0)*DOW(0) where V is rand value , N is number of units , R is rands a $ will buy , DOW in US
V(1)=N*{ R(0)+dR }*{ DOW(0)+dDow } where d-prefix means change
{dV / V(0)} = {dR / R(0)} + {dDOW / DOW(0)} + {dR / R(0) * dDOW / DOW(0) }

Match every row j with every column I
The sum= 2 * (x^2) , where 0<=x<=1
Integrate dV : Value gained = 2 * 1/3 * (1)^3 = 2/3 of Base value .
The Base value is then 1/3 of total Value (ie the the reserve) .
See "Infinite Probes"

= percExchangeRatechange + percDOWchange + (percExchangeRatechange * percDOWchange)/100

Table of % change in Rand Value of Rand-Denominated Foreign Funds
Change in Exchange rate : %Increase in Rands one Dollar will buy .
Shares% -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-10 -19 -18 -17 -16 -15 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
-9 -18 -17 -16 -15 -14 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0.1
-8 -17 -16 -15 -14 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 1.2
-7 -16 -15 -14 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 0 1 2.3
-6 -15 -14 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 2 3.4
-5 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 4.5
-4 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 5.6
-3 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6.7
-2 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7.8
-1 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8.9
0 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 -9.1 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2 -8.2 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3 -7.3 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
4 -6.4 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
5 -5.5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6.1 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16
6 -4.6 -4 -2 -1 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7.1 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17
7 -3.7 -3 -2 -0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8.1 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18
8 -2.8 -2 -1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9.1 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19
9 -1.9 -1 0 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20
10 -1 0.1 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21

Sunday, October 12, 2008

House and Gens

House and Gens .
Andre Willers
13 Oct 2008

Gens are a requirement for innovation .

Gens : A group of families in a village .

This is most easily understood by following their evolution .
We will follow the Roman gens , as they had a huge influence on western society .
Similar structures are found all over the world .

Evolution of a gens (Roman model ):
A village with a headman Julius grows to about 150 people , then hives off .
Eg , a person is identified by a name like Gaius Julius Caesar .
This means Gaius , Gens Julius (ie from village of Julius) , Family Caesar .

The number of families in the gens of Julius gets frozen after the hive-off .
Except for the genius of the Roman model (one of their recipes for success ) : they could adopt .
The adoption mechanism gave the gens extraordinary vitality .
New additions to the gens Julius who are not adoptees , are clients or slaves .
Marriage meant automatic adoption . The adoption process gave full rights , as if born a family member .

Talented individuals were brought into the gens without marriage . This was unique .

As the Romans became wildly successful , social climbers formed their own gens .
The Empire made this illegal (a long-term bad thing) .
Instead , Houses formed . Usually freedmen . Freed slaves took the surname of their former master , but were not allowed three names .

Thus it has been a mark of social pretentiousness for two thousand years to have three names .

But the freedmen and their descendants usually had great loyalty to their former masters , and considered themselves of his house . A de-facto gens .

Fast-forward to the future :

A House (gens) .
During the lower-population periods , business enterprises actually consisted of various families staying in one house (a virtual village) , all connected by their business .
As the business expanded , the various families associated with it still considered themselves of that House .

Just like with gens , lots of parvenu’s try to jump on the bandwagon .

Virtual Gens
Nowadays , there are virtual villages in companies (your department).
Notice how the identification of an individual (at a party) goes :
“ I am Joe , at Barclays , Audit ” . This gives his name and gens(house) . The surname is only given on further interaction . This is exactly how a Roman would have identified himself to a casual acquaintance .

If you called Gaius Julius Caesar by the name “Julius Caesar” , he would have your ears for disrespect . Like saying “ Hey , Barclays Smith”.)

American Gens . (Secret Societies .)
The Americans of the 18’th century had a great admiration for the Roman Republic .
They modeled their constitution after the better aspects (with improvements)
They also thought they could improve the Gens system .

They formed virtual villages
Not only the Moose , Elks etc , but also the college fraternities and sororities .
These were deliberately given non-human names , to prevent cults of personality (This seems to have worked well . Ah , human vanity .)

These are all hugely influential , but well below most radars .
All are open to adoption (compare to the British model , where Oxbridge Houses are open mostly to the elite .)

Even the Americans quailed at the thought of naming somebody “Joe Elk Smith”
or “ Mary Phi-Kappa-Delta Jones” .
So they have rings and secret handshakes . But mostly , authentication is done by word-of-mouth .

But three names are still de-rigeur .

Innovation .
This is also the well-spring of American innovation .
Humans are social constructs (literally : see http://andreswhy.blogspot,com : “Artificial Intelligence” et al) . Without continual information feedbacks , the individual desists or goes nutty .

This is where all these gens come into play .
Somewhere , there is a support social group for nearly any innovator . Most fail , but the few that do succeed repay that wasted effort handsomely .

Funnily enough , the closest equivalent I can think of are the verreine in Germany . These are associations . Equivalent organizations were formed in Eastern Europe (especially Chech) and Russia . We know of the rocket innovations , but there were many others . These are grass-roots organizations , but not kept semi-secret like the American gens were .

There are few in Roman Catholic countries , since the church actively discouraged gens (they were the ones who destroyed them in the first place after the fall of the Western Roman Empire . )Innovators were usually incorporated . The few die-hards were destroyed .
There can only be one Secret Society .

Chinese gens .
The same thing happened there .
The Empire actively discouraged innovation . The main mechanism was by incorporating promising youngsters into the Civil Service . A deliberately convoluted examination system drove the most innovative to despair and minor posts . But the main point was that they were taken away from their villages , where no gens could form .

This is why Chinese innovation is now exploding . Whole villages are becoming gens.
The process is unstoppable . The gens are now virtual as well .

Any innovator can find a like-minded group anywhere in the world .

Singularity , anyone ?


Financial Crisis Oct 10 2008

Financial Crisis Oct 10 2008
Andre Willers
Oct 10 2008 19h40

Is the sky falling ?

No , but there is an example of conspicuous stupidity or extreme real-politik :

( See “It’s stupid at the top”)

On Thu , Oct 2 2008 the US put a moratorium on short-selling for a week .
During this week , calming measures were taken(like the bail-out package , interest rate cuts , etc . ) . In the meantime , the hedge funds were assembling blocks of shares for a financial coup .

On Thu , Oct 9 2008 , this strategy was put into effect by systematically selling short into the US market , dumping shares at any sign of a rally .

This engineered an artificial panic . Wall Street fell by 9% . The Asian and European markets duly followed . (Shades of Rothschild in 1815)

On Fri , Oct 10 2008 , this strategy was followed through .
The hedge-funds rode the market down .
But towards the end of the day , short positions had to be covered and the market suddenly recovered from –10% to –3% . (Nobody wanted to be exposed over the weekend .)
Still , trillions were fleeced out of the market .(See below for estimate)

The stupidity comes in that the regulators should have realized that this would happen and extended the moratorium until the system was more stable .

The hedge-fund operators probably gave assurances that they would not do this .
This is as useful as dangling sausage in front of a hungry wolf and telling him “Stay!”

I am being charitable here . If the regulators chose to allow this , it means that they were either corrupt or that some hedge-funds might collapse without this infusion .

You pays your money and takes your choice .

An estimate of the amounts involved will clarify your mind .
US GDP (ie earnings) is about $14 trillion pa .
The average Wall Street P/E ratio is about 8 .
The price of the shares actually traded in the panic dropped by about (10%-3%=7%)
So , an upper boundary of the short-traders’
profit = 0.07 x 8 x 14 trillion
= approximately 7 trillion US dollars .

It does seemed engineered .
See my previous posts on estimated boundaries of futures exposures .
The minimum was about $3 trillion .
The mortgage bubble was trivial and easily handled by the bail-out .

The futures exposure was much bigger , and goes back to the days of LTCM .

This infusion of capital will enable the hedge-funds to unwind their positions in relative safety . (There was no way any politician could ask this . Maybe Mugabe)

Why not let the SOB’s sink ?
This will result in enormous debts created from nothing : ie with no “real” referent . The only way to survive would be to repudiate them , but this cannot be done without disadvantage to some states . The result is protectionism . And this was the cause of the 1930’s Depression . War usually follows .

Why not dispense with these credit mechanisms ?
These are essentially bubble-technologies . See my previous posts on Bubbles combined with Beth(1+) technologies .
These are directional . The negative aspects of the bubbles can be truncated , to give a netto positive movement .

Bubbles are deliberately used by regulators to steer societies (see previous posts) . But without a decent Beth(x) mathematics things sometimes go agley . But there are memes to handle busts . We are seeing them in action now . This is not a replay of the 1930’s Depression .

Some commentators now want to throw out the whole credit system .
This has been done before . (Early Christian and present Muslim societies) . In competition , they come distinctly second .
Once again the superiority of the Dutch-English credit system during the Napoleonic wars is noted .

Banks are the essence of Capitalism .
Banks mean credit (ie futures) creation , since they can lend more than their deposits .

Read Smith(“The Wealth of Nations”) . He understood this from his experience with Dutch banking systems .

Poor Marx was still stuck in a rural age . His famous statement should read :
“From each according to his present and his future capabilities , and to each according to his present and future needs.”

This generates a completely different theoretical model and society .
His original model confused the State with Banks .
Banks are always risky since they deal with futures .
But the state should only regulate them , and lop off failures .

Banks should always be deniable by the State .
(The US Federal Reserve and SA Reserve banks are private banks)

In the present crisis , the absence of the support of Chinese and Japanese capital reserves is noticed .
They have trillions in reserve , but have not lifted a finger to help .They are the wolves who are looking for weakness .

Social Capitalism .
Social regulatory controls over capitalist mechanisms are already de-facto , and formally inevitable after this little contretemps .

What is the optimum ownership of Banks by the State ?
It seems clear that the State is going to end up as the Reserve of Last Resort for Banks too large to fail . It seems fair that the State should then have a 33% share as discussed in Reserves in previous posts .
(See “Infinite Probe” et al)

But the state should not have controlling interest , and there should be many Banks .

The Chinese advantage
At the present moment it is because they are using a Bubble Beth(1) Technology .

Special Trade Zones are allowed to bubble up via relaxed capitalism , but kept within directed probable boundaries (the beth(1) part) .
This is a superior technology to plain capitalism , since it has provably delivered two decades of double-digit growth without boom-bust cycles inherent in unfettered capitalism .

The Organised Crime Advantage
A workable trust-free credit mechanism . Large amounts of capital .
Social mobility , shading into legitimacy at the upper levels .
Though I cannot imagine any mob-boss retiring into tranquil retirement if he did to his underlings what Lehman or Enron executives did .
Underground banking and money-transfers (terrorism connections) will get a huge boost.
The El Qaeda Bank anyone ?

The US and Western Advantage .
The US will approach will have to be via social controls on the capitalist process , an inherently more difficult exercise .

But there is an already existing control system we can use : taxes .

Note that this must be a Beth(1) system , ie a direction of probabilities . We are not interested in cast iron nets to catch every little fish in the sea .

An example
A fair , Green system is to tax every stakeholder in an enterprise . Stakeholders in a farm would include the animals , the plants , the soil , the workers , the boss . All of them contribute capital .

A non-linear tax on the income can be structured to reduce the disparity between the top stakeholder and the lower ones .

This has several advantages :

1.Anyone can get as rich as they want , but only by making everyone under him richer as well .

2. The green bit comes in because every element of production is included . No rape of the environment . To get rich , the farmer has to have better soil , plants and animals , with replacements .

3. This system could be stagnant (like the optimal low-energy farmers in Europe and Asia circa 17th century .)
This is where futures come in .

Futures stitch together a progressive future and a sustainable present .

4. No taxation without representation .
Coming problems like human-chimp hybrids(cheap labour) and smart computers(a variant) are automatically catered for .
If it pays taxes , it has a say .

The overall view :
The capital of the societies are still intact .The run-up of the bubbles was so immense that even after the decrease in prices , annualized returns over the last 7 years are still in the 18% pa range .

The anguished screams you are hearing are of the “Oh my daughter! Oh my ducats! “ variety . The owners of the media and their pals .

Freeze-ups are occurring (like they did in the past) because the mediums of credit-communication are in the hands of a few institutions whose owners have heavily vested interests in the status-quo .

But communications are no longer completely channeled through the bottleneck of money .

Alternative systems of distribution .
Several are available (barter , swops , favours , etc) . It is no problem to cobble together a beth(0) value system for trade .

Look at heavy-duty commercial Internet trading sites . They are going great guns .

But a beth(1) system can be directed in a time-sense . This inevitably involves some univalue counter(ie money) and banks (ie time-binding) .

There are some ready-made and available (eg Second-life Linden dollars .) Any real collapse of currencies will mean a default to these .

Humans have no shortage of money .

This is the real nightmare of the owners of money : it is fiat . And there is not necessarily a conversion to the new currency
(eg Reichmarks to Deutchmarks in 1947 , any currency reform )

Beth(2+) trading systems are outside the scope of this discussion .
But it is interesting to mention that a beth(n) trading system has a minimum of n independent currencies .
Eg , a beth(2) trading system involves favours and money . A typical human two-dimensional value system . There might be conversion between moneys at a fixed rate, but transference of a favour is counted as a favour (a primitive form of interest) .
This favour-transference is the basis of human (ape) politics . Hence graft . It is the same thing .

The Politics of Transhumans (Beth(n>2))
The number of values grow factorially . No wonder a quantum computing capability is essential for a transhuman .

Transhuman Taxes .
Death and taxes .
The “Death” part might not apply to transhumans , but the taxes bit certainly does .

Remember , taxes are a social obligation . If transhumans interact , there is a society and there are obligations . These are taxes .
Taxes can be seen as synonymous with politics . (If there is a society , there is politics.)

But imagine having to use a quantum computer to figure out your taxes .
Even worse , tax consultants and lawyers .
A transhuman tax lawyer boggles the mind .

We cannot imagine what these values are , but we can say that they exist .
Also that they are horrendously complex from our viewpoint . A quantum computing “primitive” computing complex would be required . An ordinary human would seem extremely autistic and retarded .

How can they pay these taxes ?
They have a wee problem .
Any material thing is meaningless .
The usual payment method is personal service . Not exactly a popular choice , plodding around in the material Arith I muck . About the equivalent of planting rice by hand .

The equivalent of money would be something that remains invariant under transformations for any particular beth(n) .

The Celestial Tax-Assessor .

Ever wonder why there are no Ancient Gods of Tax or Tax-assessors ?
They had a god for everything else .

The closest is the concept of Karma .An obligation , but nothing is said about enforcement or who does anything . The positions seem to vacant .

It was because tax was intimately connected with the priesthood .

They evolved in Sumeria from clerks intimately familiar with the irrigation systems .
They figured out what tax was sustainable , inventing writing and mathematics in the process .

Call this the Cost Plus system .

Initially this was purely Cost plus Tax .
(Eg Medieval , Ottoman , Communist systems)
Even the concept of personal profit was unknown or anathema .

Profit evolved later , as various strata of society fashioned increasingly ingenious ways of siphoning off the surplus .

One of the reasons for the stability of Ancient Egyptian civilization was that the priesthood were the tax-assessors .

This model was followed until some twisted genius thought up the tax-farm model.
This was enthusiastically followed by Empires . It was brought to perfection by the Roman Empire .

The Tax Farm .
The Emperor decided on how much money he wanted .
A large bureaucracy then parceled and sold this future obligation to entrepreneurs for a fixed sum . They had the sole licence to wring the taxes from every producer , with the Roman Army as enforcers . Tax payers had little recourse except ruinous law-suits or appeal to the priesthood .

As can be expected , this model always fails . The demands of the Emperor grows without regard to payability . Sooner or later , the bottom level’s capability of paying is overwhelmed and a revolution follows .

Does this sound familiar ?
Substitute “All the Traffic will Bear” for “The Tax Farm” and you can why we are where we are today .

And so it goes .


Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Memristors , Minus Kelvin and Superconductivity

Memristors , Minus Kelvin and Superconductivity
Andre Willers

8 Oct 2008

See “Minus Kelvin and Superconductivity”

Memristors is a new technology that builds memory right into the circuit element by using atoms as movable chaperones .

This is an obvious candidate for developing meta-materials for superconductivity .

The process:

It can be automated by using a 3D printer , computer with genetic algorithms and a tester in a suitable loop .

Hints :

1.Beth(2) elements can be incorporated to decrease number of generations by using analogues of neuro-transmitters .

2.Beth(1) elements can be incorporated by using Cooper-pair sonances as a primitive starting point , but make sure to include non-infinitesimal rotations(spin) in the

“chromosomes” .

If these are included and the selection criteria are fairly strict , it should not take more than about 35xn generations , where n is the number of chromosomes .

(Derivation: a billion years is about e^35 seconds . A generation a second with one chromosome will take about ln(e^35) =35 generations . More chromosomes(n) is to the power of n , ie 35xn generations . The permutations are not factorial because of the extreme efficiency of the genetic algorithm to search information spaces . See the literature.)

Superconductive heat .
It would be easier to develop a superconductive heat material first , then use annealing analogues to sneak up on electronic superconductivity .

It will be much faster , since random things happen faster in heat , and you are looking for high-temperature conductors in any case .

Understanding Beth(x) mathematics will be a recommendation , especially self-organised linear random processes .

Costs :

Since a 3D printer is used in the developmental process , production costs will be very low .

Benefits :

The usual suspects for superconductivity .

But temperature superconductivity can give very low-cost energy by tapping geothermal heat .

Cheap high-speed atmospheric flight (atmospheric friction heat can be conducted to thrust chambers) .

And so it goes .


It's stupid at the top

It’s stupid at the top.
Andre Willers
8 Oct 2008

Why do the top bosses seem so stupid ?
(This has been demonstrated over and over again in history and the present .)

The answer is that they become stupider as they move up the ladder .

The argument :
Humans are the artificial intelligences created by information flows via language , text and computers .
See “Artificial Intelligence”

But hierarchical systems , by definition , limit information flows .

The inference is inescapable : the closer an individual gets to the top of a hierarchical system , the smaller the information flow and the stupider the individual gets .
(“The Big Picture ! “ Instant stupidity .)

It is stupid at the top .

The present financial crisis :
It is much more than finances .
The entire hierarchical way of doing things is about to get trashed .
The system has been proved to be insufficient for a highly-connected society .

Stupid top-dog CEO’s dictating the course of highly complex endeavours have led to a massive realignment ( crash in old terms .)
The present credit freeze(as at 19h20 , Oct 8 2008) is caused by directors and boards too scared to lend money even to no-risk clients . Their technical subordinates know exactly the degrees of risk , but they are ignored by the stupid top hierarchs who do not know what is going on and understand less .
This will lead to

Social-Capitalism .
1. Social – flat hierarchies , to limit the stupidity effect and enhance human caring .
2. Capitalism – to utilize greed .
3. Futures – use the technology to stitch short and long term interests together .

Futures .
The critical new technology .
This started with Napier’s tables of logarithms . This made calculation of exponential interest viable on a mass scale . The insurance industry followed .

The Black-Scholes equations enabled the use of options in a beth(0) environment .
Beth(x) calculations will enable random risk calculations down to the genome and sub-atomic particle level .

What about Free-Will ?

If you understand (A+nonA is less than Universum) , the problem is too little stability and too much free will .

An interesting exercise for the reader :
Calculate the optimum free-will as a function of beth(n) ,
(a) For the dominant society .
(b) For all connected sapients .

Human Laziness .
Humans have gotten awfully lazy and hubristic by doing the same things over and over again and fondly imagining it as progress .

Try to answer the exercise above and you will see the levels of your ignorance and understanding .

God expects every sapient to do better .


Friday, October 03, 2008

Bubble Management

Bubble Management
Andre Willers
3 Oct 2008

We try to find a general algorithm for bubbles .

Delineation .
We know that defining something as delineated enables us to use the fact that the number of permutations of n elements = n!
This enables us to say that e = 1 + 1/1! + 1/2! + 1/3! + …
This enables a number of powerful statements about reserves , etc . See previous posts
Http:// “Infinite Probe” etc
Note that e is not a rational or irrational number . It is an aleph(2) number , and thus can describe beth(2) systems .

Undelineated fuzzies.
I use the term “fuzzies” because
English does not have a term for undelineated existences .
We use this as a term for unknown laws and genuine fuzzies . They are synonymous at any point of ignorance .
This is provable from the proof that (A + Non-A < Universum ) . See previous discussions . (Russell , et al)

How do we handle fuzzies mathematically ?
Well , we know we need at least two dimensions . But we cannot know the exact value of the second dimension , since it probably has no single value . But we can assign values.

Imaginary Numbers are assigned using the i=Square root of (-1) as a designator . This is aptly named . It denotes the collapse of an infinite number of dimensions into one value . This value may take ranges of values .

The usual interpretation is a single value at right angles to the real number subset , but this is but a subset of possible values .

The result is Complex numbers (z=a+ib) . These are fundamentally different from normal numbers , since they take fuzzies into account (depending on the interpretation)

Tying them together
We can take the definition of e and say

e^(f(j) = sigma ( f(j) / j!) , j=0 to infinity . f(j) need not be continous .

For instance , f(j) can be zero for every second term of j , etc .

F(j) can also be a complex number .

Then we can say

= sigma( j^a . j^(ib) )

Interpretation : every term of j jitters around at random . Remember (ib) means fuzzy . This is simply the definition of a random walk , and we know the solution to that .
S=n^(0.5) . It is trivial to show that if every step j decreases by the square root of j , then the sum of such steps to infinity does not go to infinity . They can go to zero , or take up orbitals .

Thus S can only be 0 if a=(-0.5) .

This is the Riemann Theorem .

But S (also called the Zeta function) treats clumps of infinite sequences (like e ) as units .

But an inverse square value to fuzzy measurements show the fundamental difference between beth(0) and beth(1) systems .

Another way of seeing it , is that our physical laws measurements that involves inverse squares measures our ignorance pretty accurately .

Furthermore , we can say that every value in any possible bubble of e can be found in the Zeta function. This is why it is used widely in cryptographics .

What about Beth ?
Can you see that orders of Randomness are built into the uncertainty of the
i-dimension ? . Matter can be seen as beth(2) bubbles .

Therefore , bubble management also means matter management . Whether you do it by hand or by more direct physical means does not matter .

Beth(2+) Systems
Now we get to real bubble management .
There can be no internally stable bubble(x) management if the management is of order (x) .
A static hierarchy would result if not for the fact that ( A + Non-A < Universum ).
What does happen is a pulse-system . Also called life-death . Transition states .

It is a dynamic system . Bubble(x+1) manages bubble(x) states . Your attention is drawn to the definition of human minds in
Http:// “Artificial intelligence”

Smith(“The wealth of nations”) , Marx (“Das Kapital”) etc still manages the bubbles .
But with interpretations .

Physical immortality is immaterial as long as the memory is a traveling wave , dropping things off at the back end . Real immortality means an external database immune to time , as well as interface systems . This is a beth(3)system .

Can you see the relevance to present information storage systems?

Even a nuclear war with EMP weapons will only be a hiccup to systems like the US . They have hardened disaster recovery sites storing everything . Systemic interruptions are catered for . Notice the shorter and shorter recovery times after each market downturn .

The system is heading into a singularity .

The timeline for this is about 2030 . Twenty years away . Do you know what this means ?

The momentum is about unstoppable . It is too late to think that internal dichotomies can tear the system apart . Nothing I can think of (except planetary sterilization) will stop this process .

This is the pulse process I was describing above . The last pulse before the Singularity.

Social-Capitalism will be the governing system as they go into the Singularity .

Can it be otherwise ?
Purely capitalist or socialist systems would not be able to amass the wealth or connectivity for a Singularity .

Green Social Capitalism is not too bad a way to manage the transfiguration of the human race.

They will even let die-hards survive .
Restocking the planet is a given .

The ultimate bubble management .

Buying from Universes-R-Us would have saved a lot of bother .

Have fun


Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Human Capitalism .

Human Capitalism .
Andre Willers
1 Oct 2008

Definition :
Capitalism is owning the sources for sustaining life .
Women , air , water , food , shelter , energy , knowledge .
Ownership means the power of denial . You own it if you can deny it to any group you choose .

Why are Women first ?
See “Artificial Intelligence” .
Humans in a cultural matrix are artificial intelligences , using language and writing(culture) as external databases . This is inherently time-binding .
None of the other life-sustaining elements like air , food , etc are worth anything without children .

Women can always say no (extreme = suicide) , and thus have control .

This is the basis of the Matriarchos Mythos .
See “Myths , Memes and Boredom”

The biology plays a major role as well . The female conserves resources to create an ovum , chooses a superior sperm out of millions , then brings up the children while hubbie gads about .

Women are natural Capitalists . They conserve and maintain .
The men take risks . The successful ones better everybody in the society .
This is a variant of the Random Walk .
They are supported by the women unless the men make too big a mess (endangers the children on a massive scale) .
Then the women lower the boom .

This is a very successful model , not just for humans but for most mammalian species.
It combines a steady , conservative base with high-risk , high-gain disposable investments .

What has this to do with the present financial crisis ?
First ask , who owns the USA ?
Two factors combined to give women ownership : the Trust structures of inheritance , and female longevity . Massive family capital amounts ended up under the ownership of the longest-living .

Example : Nixon was nixed by Mrs Marshall , the owner of the Washington Post .

Housewife Capitalists .
Housewives in charge of household finances have been quietly pooling capital and knowledge using Internet tools . They have had a major effect on markets .
They like low-risk , sure things . Like the carry-trade .

Japan .
The South African rand has been shored up by the carry trade from Japanese housewife capital pools . They club together via the Internet , borrow from the Japanese bank at 0.5% and invest in SA at 12% . Really large amounts . They control the household savings of a large percentage of the Japanese population . At the first sign of trouble , they are off . Really , really risk averse . Perfect capitalists .

The failure of Capitalism .
As previously discussed , unfettered capitalistic systems evolved systems of checks and balances to prevent drawdowns below survival levels .

In the US these were things like anti-trust laws , etc .
But these were abrogated during the 1980’s and 1990’s . The owners allowed (even encouraged this) , being too incompetent to realize that this is against their own long-term interests . Marx was right ,after all !

The US model has been the divorce of owner and manager . The owners hired managers to get the maximum return on their capital . The managers bribed the legislature to relax or ignore controls . Now that the resultant cock-up threatens significant capital losses , the woman owners are incompetent to handle it . But they will pass control to the politicians , and monitor them .
Expect heavy oversight by women in the political process .

Not as wealth-creating as the old set-up , but at least the horse won’t die under you .

It will be interesting to see how those mossy-horned old bulls will take to being lassoed by these sweet old things .

Analogue : the British East India Company .
This had to be rescued by the British Government after a totally incompetent mess resulting in the Indian Mutiny . They were replaced by the Royal Indian Civil Service , one of the truly effective governments in history . If only we could expect their equivalent , but don’t hold your breath .
Actually , a civil service much more competent than the political controllers is not stable either without a heavy religious underpinning (ref Mandarin China , Roman Catholic Europe) . This is the penalty for separating the religious and secular authorities .
But do we want a stable system ?
Yes , at the center , but with unstable peripheries with freedom of movement .
A bit like the world now . A citizen of US , EU , Russia ,China , India can stay at home and be cosseted , or move to the peripheries of third world countries and try their luck .

Intriguing speculation :
Does the US government face an equivalent of the Indian Mutiny ?

The US Expeditionary forces in the Middle East are about half reservists (with a small permanent force stiffening) and half contractors ( basically , mercenaries) . If the money dries up , the contractors vanish with it . The reservists’ situation become untenable , especially if their families are starving at home .
(This is what happened to the Portuguese Empire in the 1970’s .
The Army Generals were forced to take over a failed state (against their will).)

But the US has shown great resilience in the past . It has survived numerous boom-busts exactly like this one . The memes are there .
For example , there have been at least four occasions (Civil war , WWI , WWII , 9/11) when civil liberties had been wiped out , yet reinstated later via a democratic process . This is unique in history .

If the US Union is not preserved , they will be eaten alive by Russia , China ,EU and India .

If the US preserves the Union , Social-Capitalism is inevitable just to dig themselves out of the present mess and to compete with a Social-Capitalist China .

Social Capitalism and the Russian Union .
They have had their collapse . The state has no holy cows about intervening where necessary. (Notice the suspensions of the Russian stock exchange ) .

Capitalism or Socialism are good servants , but bad masters .

The Civil Service .
You can see where this leads .
The “Social” bit means some sort of civil service supervision that does not stifle the Capitalist enfant terrible .

We know of at least three such systems in history : Mandarin class in China , Indian Civil Service in India under the British Raj and Roman Civil service in the early Empire .

Both involved extremely rigorous exams .
The equivalent of a doctorate in Civil Service Administration , but with a limit on the number of graduates every year (ie the standard varies upward from a floor level) . Ethics and Humanities were a major part in both .

Any society that does the equivalent now will have big advantage .

The EU seems to be leading . How many divisions does Brussels have ?
They certainly seem to be churning out civil servants .
As Stalin said , quantity has a quality of its own .
But each state has its own elected chief .
Sadly , the collective backbone resembles a jellyfish having a massage .

The British could easily reinstate the Indian Civil Service exams for local consumption . They have gotten rid of their top-heavy aristocracy .
They are also smarting under the humiliation of being stripped of all their assets by the US under Roosevelt during WW II . The Civil Service really resents this . It will suit them just fine if the US Union is not preserved , since they now have a protector in the EU (a rather frail reed , I am afraid)

The Chinese have mandarins , but they have a political problem in giving them any power . This will change under competition .

The Russians will have to institute a crash program , but they have the Akademgorsk’s to draw on . To a certain extent , old KGB personnel fill in .

The Indians are already doing it , as far as I can see . I see no negative ripple effects . They are using the British template . The reason for their unwarranted pushiness .

The US has some catching-up to do .
There is insufficient continuity .
The Civil Service is supposed to act as a flywheel to the impetuosity of the political chiefs . “Advisor” is the highest post , with no real power . They are now plucking the fruits of this with the runaway credit problems .
For the administration to appoint the inspectors simply does not work .

I just heard on the radio that the US Senate has approved the bailout bill by a convincing margin (03h25 , Oct 2 2008 SA time) .
There are penalty and supervision clauses .

It is seldom that one can pinpoint the time of a really major social change.

“I listened to the collapse of capitalism !”

We are entering new , uncharted waters .

How ironic .
Marx , Lenin , Stalin , Mao all hoped for this day when capitalism collapses under it’s own contradictions .

Too late for them . Communism collapsed before Capitalism since it was even more rotten .

Now , as discussed , it will be Social-Capitalism .

Political parties like National Social Capitalism (NSC) or International Social Capitalism(ISC) or Planetary Social Capitalism(PSC) or Terran Social Capitalism(TSC) will be formed .

Stick “Green” in front of any of them to get some more variants .

It also changes the whole Politically Correct mindset .
Capitalism is about short-term gains .
Socialism is about long-term gains .
Futures connect them .

This change in attitude will reverberate through the world .

Militant Green is in .
SUV’s will be treated like fur-coats .

Don’t be surprised at the Green Futures Socialist Capitalist Fund .

Can anybody still remember the youthful passions of the 1960’s ?
Well , we are in for a recap .

All that money and expertise has not gone away .
There are at this moment about 300 000 unemployed smart entrepreneurs grasping for
The Next Big Thing . And it is the Big Green Social Responsible Thing .

Oh well . It could be worse .

Have fun