Monday, March 23, 2009

FeatherFall .

FeatherFall .
Andre Willers
23 Mar 2009

No , not an ornithoid asteroid strike .
The overnight catastrophic collapse of ostrich-feather prices in 1914 .

A real-life tale of big money , greed , conspiracies , rags-to-riches and back to rags , better than any soapie .

The story :
Europe and America had grown rich from decades of peace and the Industrial revolution . Scarce fashionable items (like diamonds and ostrich feathers) had become very expensive . The Cartel set out to make these items more affordable , more widely available and smooth the demand by managing the Fashion world , cutting themselves a nice slice at every stage . All very nice .

The Cartel , Big European banks (English , Dutch and Rothschild) identified a potentially very lucrative trade in Ostrich feathers as a money spinner . They used their usual recipe (still used today)

The Conspiracy :
Use a front man , backed by Big Money and diplomatic and military clout obtained from manipulating the interest rates governments have to use , and sheer bribery .

Here this was Rhodes , who they used before for diamonds and gold . He in turn determined a suitable cultivation area (semi-arid , with enough local expertise to irrigate lucerne feed for the ostriches.) .
He in turn recruited his own front-men : the so-called Rhodes-clique ( Gert Olivier , Piet Lategan , Jan Schoeman , Gert le Roux ) . These were all big farmers in the area .

He still needed a collection and distribution network .

He simply used the Rothschild connection to facilitate the immigration of a large number of poor Jewish immigrants and let them self-organize . The identified best entrepreneurs ( three brothers , Max , Barney and Albert Rose) were given financial support , legal support , but mainly preferential access to the contacts in Europe to sell their product (a good credit reference , in today's terms) .
(This is a favourite technique , still used in Rhodes scholarships , et al.)

The Cartel steered fashion in Europe by preferential financing and interest rates to fashion houses . They also controlled a large part of the press .

Meanwhile back at the ostrich ranch :
The beauty of the whole enterprise was that everybody got rich , some staggeringly so. Poor farmers went from rags to riches overnight . The closest analogue was the oil-rush in Texas .

All paid for by a very rich end-user , for whom it was a bagatelle .

The system developed quickly into a futures-driven enterprise . Brokers paid up-front for next years production of feathers as a loan . The brokers discounted their future contract to get financing . And so up the chain .
Property prices went through the roof . So did the prices of ostriches .

Everybody wanted to get rich quickly . So they leveraged it to the hilt .
Sounds familiar ?

By 1914 the whole enterprise was set for one of those 19th century busts .

Shadows of War .
France and the British Empire nearly went to war in 1903 . Peace was brokered by Grey . The famous Entente Cordiale .

But neither side intended to honour it . The French was investing heavily in Russian industrial expansion , hoping to do what the British did in the America's . The British hoped to do their usual divide-and-keep-separate strategy in Europe (which they had been successfully doing since they lost France in the time of Joan d'Arc) . So they supported and needled Germany , which felt squeezed between France and Russia .

Indeed , from documents from the German General Staff in 1914 , the Germans despaired of winning , but saw war as the only alternative to vengeful French penalties for the humiliation of the 1870's campaigns .

The nature of the coming war was also widely known . In 1907 a Swedish diplomat wrote a three-volume treatise that was required reading for all general staffs , setting out the probable course of the war . (See "The pity of war") . This was fairly accurate . They just did not know what to do about it . So , all prepared contingency plans for a long-drawn out conflict .

The UK knew it could not feed it's population without easy imports from the continent . So the contingency plans included immediate requisitioning of all maritime transport for grain and armaments . They also notified the insurance companies (mainly Loyds) that HM navy would not protect ships any except those involved in the war effort .

This leaked . The smart money moved out of risky positions .
The moment war was declared , the credit markets shut down like a camel's sphincters in fly season . The entire globalized British trading empire came to a shuddering halt .
(Sounds familiar?)

FeatherFall .
The news was spread by radio-telegraph . Overnight , (literally) , prized packages of feathers became worthless . They could not get transport , and the end-market was iffy. Property prices collapsed , ostriches could not be given away . Men who counted themselves rich , suddenly owed huge amounts . The banks (especially Standard) called in loans . The whole credit system collapsed .
The entire region was impoverished for generations .

What happened to them ?
Unlike a soapie , we can answer that .
The Cartel .
Still around , and beloved by conspiracy theorists . (Bilderburgers , etc) . They are simply fulfilling an important function in a capitalist society , namely using their clout to ensure that their great(n) grandchildren still have air to breathe , water to drink , and food to eat . In the process , ensuring the same for everybody else .

The Rhodes-clique .
Their children became important and respected members of society . Many cabinet ministers came from these families .

The Rose brothers .
The only one that came out of this with any semblance of honour was Max Rose .
He remained behind and used his capital , skills and contacts to establish the Klein-Karoo as a Lucerne producing area , exporting to the whole of SA .
Which it still does .
Re-establishing a living for the people whose lives he helped to destroy .
A mensch .

The other two brothers tootled off to London , where they also used their capital , skills, and especially contacts to make a hobby-business of building and market-gardening . Barney's wife Pauline became a staunch Zionist and emigrated to Israel's eastern Jerusalem , where she was visited by the rich and famous .

The poor .
Well , they died , as does everybody .

The Ostriches .
A delicious tale , worthy of at least a TV series .

The Golden Feather .
The perfect feather was found from some consignments from Tripoli .
The South Africans , Americans and French were determined to get this lucrative market for themselves .

In 1911 The SA Ostrich industry sent a team of three to get breeding ostriches :
PC Smith , JMP Bowker and RW Thornton , the head of the Grootfontein Agricultural College . A certain Aldershaw from the British Government (a real James Bond type , of which the British colonial territories abounded) was seconded . Judging by their activities , they had a deep war-chest .

They played a cat-and-mouse game throughout most of North-Africa , with the French Foreign Legion and American agents in hot pursuit .

Despite disease and spies , they managed to bring them to South Africa , where they were bred into the local ostrich population to the produce the Golden Feather .
(1914 +)
Then the market collapsed .

God's little joke .
One day in about 1912 , a small , bedraggled little female ostrich came walking up through Meiringspoort out of the wild to the farm of Piet Meiring . But when she opened her wings , the farmers and male ostriches went berserk .

She was an Idoru , a perfect image .
Her feathers were better than the Golden Feather . They were Platinum .
Like Marilyn Monroe walking out of the desert .

The farmers had to devise a special restraining gear ("riempies" or thongs) to prevent harm to her . Her male fans would have mobbed her to death .

She was bred into the lines brought from North-Africa .
They are still called riempies ostriches , and her feathers were so good that they still sold at hefty prices even after the collapse of the market .

I sometimes wonder how smart this bird really was ?
She did exactly the only thing that could have secured her off-springs' and her own survival .

( Ostrich Feather quality circa 1911 :
The South African ostrich feather was not the best quality feather , just the most available and best marketed .
The quality order was feathers from :
1.Aleppo in Syria (scarce) (French)
2.Barbary from Tripoli . (French)
3.St Louis (the Americans) , Senegal and Egypt
4.Mogador in Marokko (French)
5. Oudtshoorn in Cape Province (plentiful) (UK)
6.Yamani in Arabia .
After this riempies-feathers took over .
The Riempies female's genetic material is now spread all over South Africa , USA and who knows where else .
She died after a long and pampered life , with innumerable children . Better than Marilyn Monroe . ( Idoru's tend to have short , unhappy lives )
Like I said , one smart bird . )

Other casualties:
The invention of refrigeration in the 1870's had led to a huge expansion of trade . Delicacies like apricots , peaches and other fruits were shipped from the far-flung corners of the British Empire .The Western Cape in SA , for instance , had lots of retired British civil-service employees who had invested their pensions into fruit-farms , trusting that the Government will not let them down . Oh well .

Churchill as First Lord of the Admiralty (a political appointee since 1911) signed the orders to withdraw Royal Navy protection from all maritime traffic (not just around the coasts of Europe) . Loyds promptly withdrew insurance and the system locked up .

This was the first time he really hurt the British Empire .
The second time was with the US Lend-Lease agreements in WW2 . This finally destroyed the British Empire .

The Argentinians were the wealthiest per capita nation in the world in 1910 . Europe was awash with Argentinian beef millionaires .
Cheap frozen beef was shipped from Argentine to the insatiable markets in Europe . The Americans didn't like it , neither did the European bankers that owned most of the big ranches in the US .
They put pressure on the British Admiralty , and Churchill caved in or was bribed .
American beef and grain shipments were allowed , Argentine an other loyal subjects withered on the vine .

The British Empire , built on free trade , also withered on the vine .It is noticeable that volunteer soldiers for WWI did not include a large proportion of British expats .
Look at the inscriptions on monuments . There are not nearly enough English names .
Their parents had been impoverished by Churchill's decision . They felt betrayed .
And after Gallipoli , even the Australians and New Zealanders would rather shoot him than look at him .

There is something fundamentally wrong with a system that allows an incompetent buffoon like him to get near the levers of power .

But , a system that cannot survive one incompetent , does not really deserve to survive.
Make up your own mind .

The only heroine in this saga is Platinum Idoru Ostrich female . She won big time .
And Lucerne . Lots more lucerne around than before .

Like I said , one smart bird .


Saturday, March 21, 2009

Ancient Babylonian Information Technology .

Ancient Babylonian Information Technology .
Andre Willers
21 Mar 2009

Synopsis :
Large Middle-Eastern empires were made possible by a simple data-sorting and analysis technology . This greatly facilitated fair taxation , fair Law and large Armies.

Discussion :
From about 1600 BCE , baked clay tablets from royal libraries have a curious feature : holes in them at the same locations on different tablets . This lasted well into the Assyrian period . (See a photo of a tablet from the royal library of King Ashurbanipal (668 – 627 BCE) of Nineveh on p25 of "Cuneiform" by CBF Walker ISBN 0-520-06115-2)
Or Google "cuneiform firing holes" . (They were first called "firing holes" ).

The layout of the holes are immediately reminiscent of Hollerith punch-cards .
Lends new meaning to the old "Do not bend , fold , spindle or mutilate."

A hole would be a "Yes" .

How it worked .
1.A mask (the format) is prepared at data-entry stage .
Eg . lists of cities that have paid their taxes .
2.Multiple duplicate clay tablets are prepared and the holes punched through according to the format .
3.Data is entered by stopping up the hole .(Eg a town that has not met its tax obligations)
4.The tablets are baked . You now have a nearly imperishable record .

5.Data Retrieval .
The above procedures are time consuming and expensive .
The data-retrieval is the crux of relative and absolute advantage .

Just line up the tablets behind the format-mask and stick a long , thin reeds through the selected holes . This is a "AND" gate .

Take out the tablets where at least one reed is blocked .
Eg , towns that have not paid their taxes .

Repeat analyses on these tablets to get deeper analysis of temporal or other patterns .
This can be done in hours to days , for centuries of data .

Quite sophisticated analyses can be performed in this manner . It was the main governmental decision system before electronic computers in the 20th century AD .

Advantages :

1.Fairness of tax .
Everybody tries to avoid tax . The rich and powerful are so successful at it that without proper record retrieval systems , the state's tax burden shifts to the poor . This is perceived as unfair (a hardwired neural behaviour that nearly all mammals have) . Over a certain threshold this leads to unrest and revolt . The state has to spend its revenue on internal suppression . It has turned an asset into a liability . This limited the size of empires .

2.Fairness of Law .
The concept of immutable law above the control of rulers is linked to the durability of baked clay and easy retrieval .
In water-based empires like the Middle-East , nobody can remember thousands of years of judgments handed down . Only the royal libraries have full copies , and access is restricted . But the king has to know what the previous rulings were to remain fair .
It is no accident that the reign of Hammurabi dates to just before the appearance of the first "firing holes" .

The Army .
Large , standing armies that enabled the empires to grow are constrained by logistics .
Fast information retrieval and analysis is essential .

The Assyrians were masters at this . They simply massed larger forces than their opponents and supplied them adequately , paid for by a workable tax-system .

Why were they eradicated ? The very efficiency of the tax system was their undoing . The general rate of tax on everybody went over 38%
(See "Optimal Tax") . This happened to quite a number of other civilizations (Late Roman Empire , Mayan , some Chinese dynasties , etc)

Why did this technology disappear ?
Well , it didn't . It went back to its roots , namely weaving .Weaving is known to be at least 30 000 years old , and probably much older . Looms using card-type controls have been known throughout history , culminating in the well-known Jacquerie looms in France during the start of the industrial revolution . Then Hollerith cards and computers .

The Babylonian system initially had a big relative advantage . But it had a major weakness : the format-templates . If these were lost or destroyed , all the other records were worthless . ( A major problem today . Huge volumes of electronic data are in formats that cannot be read anymore.)

Combine this with a dynastic system of conquerors , who deliberately destroyed the competitive advantage of their predecessors . The value of the system fell below survival level .

The technology led to centralized record-keeping and a small literate class (a plus as far as kings are concerned.) The tablets are big and bulky , expensive to store .
But , in competition with a phonetic scripts with millions of easily made and durable copies (see why paper is important ?) , where taxes and laws were written down , the error-rate of the cuneiform-system was much higher .
(A single copy is much more prone to destruction or corruption .)
It simply faded away .

Ancient Egyptian Hieroglyphs .
The technology of record-keeping played a big role .
Moses handed down tablets , but Jews , Christians and Muslims are people of the Book .
Traders need to keep weight down . Lugging around 20 pounds of clay tablets on your little donkey instead of trade goods is a bit of a no-no .

Papyrus was a jealously guarded Pharaonic monopoly .

So how did the Romans do it ?
They did use clay tablets and slates for temporary work , tree-bark for throw-away letters , papyrus for more serious work , vellum for longer-lasting work , stone for serious ultra-long work .

This is what first drew the attention of Rome . They needed a cheap , plentiful supply of papyrus . In the Roman Republic days , they did not need Egyptian wheat , and had no means to transport it in bulk . So , they solved the problem by conquering Egypt .

When they looked around to see what else was worth looting , they saw the huge agricultural surpluses , a perennial source of danger (armies) .
It was Augustus who formed the neat little solution : give the Romans a peace dividend in free corn from Egypt , paid for by taxes on the provinces . This reduced the wealth in Egypt and the provinces for military or rebellious adventurism , while sucking in Italian peasants from non-viable little plots of ground . Their young men then become fodder for the legions. The rich landowners (latifundia) expand . A further plus was the huge stimulation to the shipping industry , which led to greatly increased trade and the Augustan economic miracle .

A really neat solution that lasted about two centuries .

All built on papyrus and multiple records .

Can you see why baked clay-tablets could not compete ?
The multiple records and large literate class performed the same function as the Babylonian IT system , but more error-resistant .

What about the Chinese ?
(See "Rome vs China)
They developed paper quite early and had multiple records , but the dynastic system meant that each new dynasty purged and rewrote previous records . The memory of the system then vested in a large literate class (Mandarins) , but this had a limited capacity . Still , they managed to stay ahead in innovation of Europe until the Mongols (the Yuan dynasty ) .
The Mongols impoverished China in two ways :
1.The killed a large percentage of the literate class , destroying the main memory .
2.Surplus accumulated wealth was expropriated . A very large percentage was sent to Tibet (the Lamaseries) , especially the libraries . (The Mongol aristocracy saw themselves as Tibetans . Chinggis traced his ancestry back to nobles on the Tibetan plateau ) . The Tibetans have a long history of extremely aggressive behaviour . Their monks are about as pacifistic as the Knights Templar . They had an empire encompassing the Mongolian steppes from about 600 AD to 1000 AD .
No wonder the Chinese see the Mongols as being cat's paws for the Tibetans .
The enmity goes as deep as the memory system of the surviving Mandarin families from the Yuan dynasty .

After the Mongols were expelled from China proper , the Ming dynasty gradually collapsed in exhaustion . The reserves of wealth and memory were exhausted . The literate class (Mandarins) could not regenerate fast enough .
They jealously clung to their now enhanced privileges .

The exploration fleets (Hu in 1421) were burnt . More importantly , eye-glasses were discouraged . (Chinese had invented concave lenses about 1100 AD) . This stifled all innovation and growth (which was the intention ) .

So , can you see how the technological ability to store and retrieve information , interacted with Chinese society to shape them ?

The paper cut is the most dangerous cut of all .


Optimal Tax

Optimal Tax .
Andre Willers
22 Mar 2009

Synopsis :
Any delineated entity in a competitive environment has an optimal reserve .
(See "NewTools : Reserves")
If this reserve is exceeded by a tax , the entity has the three choices : revolt , moving , or extinction .

Discussion :
The argument involves the effects of errors in sub-entities which are partitioned to infinity . The error of not paying taxes is included in the range .

The range of optimal reserves is 28% to 38% , with an average of 33%

Direct tax: roughly , the percentage of GDP going to the state (in SA , 28%)
Indirect tax : Inflation .
Benefits from tax: the monetary value the entity receives back from the group (society) in benefits . Usually , there is cross-subsidization to prevent too big gaps between layers of society . This works fine , unless boundary conditions are exceeded.

The basic relationship is
Direct Tax + Inflation – TaxBenefits = TaxOnReserve
This is layered according to social classes .

If TaxOnReserve > 38% ,
there is armed rebellion , major social unrest , revolution ,extinction .
If TaxOnReserve is between 33% and 38% , there is unrest . Population movements .
If TaxOnReserve is between 28% and 33% , there is smugness .
If TaxOnReserve is < 28% , there is unrest because of a vague perception of unfairness .

This seems fairly straightforward . The problem is in the social layering .

South Africa as a case study : as at 22 Mar 2009 .
DirectTax(28%) + Inflation(8%) = 36% .

The TaxBenefits :
Upper classes : TaxBenefits(1%) gives a TaxOnReserve of 35% , 2% less than 33% .
They leave .

Other classes :
They would be satisfied with TaxBenefits of up to 8% .
More than that , and they want to know " What have you done for us lately. We deserve more . "

The perils of populism .


Friday, March 20, 2009

Speaker .

Speaker .
Andre Willers
21 Mar 2009

Synopsis :
A new technological principle to reproduce high-fidelity sound , not involving vibrating membranes .
But using the technology as a cheap sensor-speaker pair in a feedback loop can have major influences on human behaviour .

Discussion :
This does not sound like much , but involves literally billions of dollars .
Think iPods , music systems , etc .

Quote from SciAm of Feb 2009 p17 "Sounds like thunder"
"When an audio-frequency current was applied to stretchable , transparent films of 10 nanometer thick carbon nanotubes , physicists at the Tsingua-Foxconn Nanotechnology Research Center in Beijing unexpectedly discovered they can make sounds as loud as commercial speakers."
See also "Nano Letters" of 29 Oct 2008 (online).

The theory is that the electrified nanotubes heat and expand the air near them in pattern with the electrical current . And since sound-waves are very low energy , not much energy is required . No vibrating membranes required .

This speaker is flexible (can be woven into clothing , flags , etc) .

So far so good . Only billions of dollars are involved .

The kicker:
Any output-mechanism can be , in principle , used as a input-mechanism (sensor , in this case )

This makes cheap biofeedback systems inevitable .

Heat-variation ->Electrical Current variation ->Speaker .

An athlete or patient can hear bio-processes in real-time , cheaply .

This is a cheap and ubiquitous prosthetic nervous-system .

Of great use for things like high bloodpressure , sex , diabetic complications , etc, etc .

Add in a smart chip in the loop , and all sorts of things are possible .

This is basically optimizing human behaviour , ie changing it .

This is one of those innocuous-seeming technologies that has major ramifications (Think of the motor-car) .

Especially since it has such an enormous base . (Music is one of the largest industries on the planet .)

Note the American-Chinese Attractor Basin developing in nanotechnology .

A nice challenge to the social process , when each person can march to his own drummer .

Happy listening .

Andre .

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Why Genes?

Why Genes?
Andre Willers
18 Mar 2009

In honour of Charles Darwin's 200th birthday .

Synopsis :
Why does a string of DNA instructions end up getting chopped up into distinct groups of genes and chromosomes ?

Discussion :
The underlying forces are
1. Competition (Least cost)
2. Co-operation .(Most benefit)

DNA strings are prone to duplication and insertion during cell-division . Ie , similar strings recur . Similar strings have an evolutionary advantage in co-operating .
What is good for copyA is good for copyB .
They are inherently more secure against random , non-functional mutations .
But if a copy has a beneficial mutation , the competition mechanism will increase it's incidence .
This means stability from random mutation , and propagation of favourable traits .

In competition with other copy-strings , this complex of similar strings clump together to form a clump (gene).
The expression of these genes are involved in the evolutionary process . (Epigenetics , et al) . This leads to chromosomes (clumps of genes) and species (clumps of chromosomes) .

This is a fractal process , repeated throughout Terran organisms .(Cultural memes , etc)

Is this universal ?
Only if the base information string is delineated and a non-circular string .

Ie , even Terran organisms with circular DNA will be different in major ways . Since they do not need "end" markers , speciation does not occur and they merrily swop genetic material . (Bacteria ,etc) They might incorporate packages like genes , but it is not their basic organization . (This has lately been realized . Bacterial species are mostly a human measurement artifact.)

Conclusion :
Group-selection is built into the heart of the DNA-system .
The relationship between Competition and Co-operation is what is important .

The optimal relationship :
Co-operation involves existing relationships (ie reserves) . Competition involves future putative advantages .
From "NewTools: reserves" , it is immediately clear that the least-error route is 28%-38% co-operation (average 33%), the rest is competition . Hence multi-cellurarism and speciation , with a high turnover .
Least-error does not mean maximum benefit . A healthy biosphere should have both .
This implies old-age in multi-cellular species

Stem-cells :
Stem cells compete too much (2/3), and do not co-operate(1/3) enough .
The Hayflick limit can be calculated directly from this principle .
This is for species optimization . For individual optimization the ratios differ .

An interesting Analogy : computers
The software faces the same evolutionary pressures as living organisms.
1.Operating system kernel – a single gene with many epigenetic switches (Application Interface(API) calls )
2.It is more efficient to do upgrades on a single Operating System(OS) as far as co-operation is concerned . Why we have species like MicroSoft . (Open-source software is more like bacteria.)
3.Different OS systems compete , but similar ones co-operate .
4.Duplication occurs with parallel processing : different processors access different API's of the OS .
5.There is strong evolutionary pressure to compress and minimize .

An interesting speculation :
"How-to" information is still encoded in the DNA-epigenetic system .
Backward-compatibility in OS terms .

We know that highly compressed information is indistinguishable from random noise.
We know that embrio's recapitulate previous evolutionary stages .
Where do they get the information to do this ?
From compressed data stored in the DNA , requested and decompressed by the epigenetic system (PNA mainly)

Recent environmental things affecting the mother / father gets added in to give the offspring a better chance by using recipes from previous compressed data . Speciated organisms are not as efficient at this as bacteria .

The computer-equivalent would be a compressed OS that decompresses on an epigenetic request (ie API call) that can be more efficiently done by it .
We already have that (multiple Operating systems on the same PC . The user selects the most efficient OS for what he wants to do . The User here would be the epigenetic
Mechanism .)

Evolutionary yours


Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Gold Licks : Update

Gold Licks : Update
Andre Willers .
18 Mar 2009

See "Gold Licks"
In which a fundamental biochemical role for gold nano-particles is deduced .

See NewScientist of 28 Feb 2009 p20 , in which experimental evidence for this is described by Chad Mirkin and his team at Northwestern University in Evanston , Illinois .

Briefly , gold-nanoparticles 13 nm across are used to penetrate the human cell wall with 99% success within 6 hours , an astounding success rate , with no side-effects . The cell-wall penetration mechanism is unknown at present , but it strongly suggests an old , existing pathway .

The gold-nanoparticle is attached to up to 30 siRNA molecules , which switches or modifies the expression of DNA inside the cell .
(siRNA stands for "short interfering RNA" , about 30 short stretches of RNA)

Interestingly , siRNA's attached on the gold-nanoparticle can last for days instead of minutes outside the cell . So , the gold-nanoparticle can ferry epigenetic switches from cell-to-cell , even across the mammalian womb-barrier .

Now you see why roughening that old gold wedding ring on the inside is so important.

The gold addiction mechanism .
siRNA sequences silencing the serotonin and dopamine re-uptake genes are ferried by gold-nanoparticles .

Gold is nature's prozac .

Gold nano-particle spin and mitochondria .
We can tack on electromagnetic siRNAhandles on to a Gold nano-particle , as well as siRNA clips that lock on to the rotor of mitochondria . By using well-known focused EMF techniques , we can speed up or decrease mitochondrial rotor-spin from outside (ie change ATP production ) .
This has obvious applications . Cancer , disease , athletes , etc .

The next Big Thing .
See NewScientist of 28 Feb 2009 p18 " Projector Phones" : Texas Instruments and Samsung has shrunk a video projector to the size of a raisin .
The latest generation gives DVD resolution using Digital Light Processing chips . This is a chip that has thousands of electromechanical mirrors , each which represents a pixel .
In the projector , the EM (ie light) waves diverge to give a large image .
But , they can equally be programmed to converge .
This can exert a spin or de-spin force or retinal virtual fields can be stimulated .
Tera-frequencies can be emulated via interference effects (ie x-ray vision) .

The inverse receiver chip can collect data from the sender chip in a feedback-loop .
This is the Startrek medical scanner and effector .

This would be ideal for Adiabatic Quantum Computing systems .
See " Adiabatic Quantum Computing"

Thar's gold in them thar molehills .


Thursday, March 12, 2009

Transactional physics , Exchange Rates and Taxes .

Transactional physics , Exchange Rates and Taxes .
Andre Willers
12 Mar 2009

Synopsis :
We examine transactions between delineated physical states with special reference to exchange rates and histories .

Econophysics is a large and very flourishing fusion of the application of physics to economics (eg Goldratt , et al)

The inverse is a branch of physics called Transactional Physics , where physical systems are described in terms of their transactions with each other .(Like economics)

In both cases , there are very fruitful analogues that can be applied .

Transactional Physics has not been as successful , because physicists have not had the courage to incorporate Taxes .

Taxes implies not only the Second Law of Thermodynamics , but also a record . The past history . This implies a time-symmetry breaking .

Let us run a quick universe-building exercise to see what we get .

Let us start with an inchoate universum .
Not even delineated thingies exist . No space , time energy etc .

A phase change happens to create delineated thingies ..

Now , there are some delineated thingies . These Thingies immediately self-organize . The amazing thing is that we can say broadly how they self-organize
(see "Newtools : reserves")

About a third will be contradiction-free and form the past . The other third form the future . The undelineated thingies are interspersed in between .

The space-time has to have Planck quantum dimensions if curved . (A long story) .
The past and future are mutable , but the future is more mutable (by 2/3) .
The systems try to optimize futures and pasts in the cloud of non-delineated thingies (or more exactly , thingies that can become delineated thingies) .

The Tax .
This optimization costs . The presence of non-delineated thingies means that a static space-time is not possible (we will not even go into branes) .
This is a tax on whatever passes for value (energy , whatever) .

This means there is a Universal Tax of about (2/3-1/3=1/3) applicable and built-in into all delineated universes .
No wonder that this is the usual tax rate of human societies .

The optimization via multiple-futures ( ie least-path , least-energy mechanisms ) is used widely .
But as any tax-lawayer can attest , easily-levied taxes depend on the record of the past , not the future . Because the future is more difficult to change than the past (by 2/3)
Optimizing the past is even more important than optimizing the future because it is easier .

The higgs boson can be described as a tax on momentum-income based on the past history . But if this tax is built into the basis of time , the Higgs boson might not exist except as a virtual particle .

Gravity and the conservation laws are not far behind .

Can you see the problem ?
Thingies that change their past pay less tax and survive longer . Pretty soon your little universe is populated with tax-evaders .
Things fly apart . Fly-by-nights set up shop at sub-Planck lengths and times . Your Universum expands extremely rapidly .

Value destruction : exchange rates .
We need something that destroys what passes for value . We need exchange rates . This implies boundaries to the thingies (identifiability) . Particles , in other words .

Most thingies do not convert to particles . Most fly away , but a very large number hang around and interact with particles . The exchange rate between particles sucks them in (like informal sector to formal sector) . This causes a diminuation of thingies close to large concentrations of particles .

What this describes bears some resemblance to the General Cosmology theory of the Big Bang .

But what has it done for us lately ?

We routinely use optimization of the future in our quantum devices . (Computers , MRI's , etc)

The first human optimization of the very near past I have seen is the Adiabatic Quantum Computer .
See "Adiabatic Quantum Computing"
The adiabatic part means "the past" .

A small hint :
High-temperature super-conductors are not possible without optimizing the near past .
Connecting AQC's by high-temperature super-conductors should have interesting effects , especially if the temperature varies .

This should not have been too taxing .


Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Terraforming Venus .

Terraforming Venus .
Andre Willers
10 Mar 2009

Synopsis :
We create terran-habitable layers in the Venusian atmosphere by adding gas-masses via cometary impacts and pay for it by mining rare elements from the core , all within decades .

Discussion :

Constraints :

1.Time .
Two or three decades at the most .
2.Only known technology and science allowed .

This rules out decreasing Venus's mass (getting rid of the surplus atmosphere) and bioforming the remains . Or changing its orbit . This will take too long .

But we can certainly increase the atmosphere by the simple expedient of steering gas-and water rich objects like comets .

The latest theories of planetary formation indicate strongly that the inner of two Venus-Earth pairs condensing out of the primordial ring will be much richer in certain heavy metals and objects . Gold is one . Uranics and transuranics another .
Black holes .

The Lady might really have a heart of gold (or at least a fond spot for it.)
And she is a very hot-hearted dame .

Cosmic string factory .
Three or more mini-blackholes can form stable orbital configurations inside an object like Venus , where radiation pressure offsets infalling mass enough prevent runaway , and infalling mass compensates for Hawking black-hole evaporation .
It needs to be fairly critical in terms of radioactives .

The envelopes of the event-horizons of the black-holes would be stretched in the direction of orbit , till eventually they merge to form a cosmic string . The magnetic field-lines would be twisted tightly around the orbital path , subsuming the normal magnetic effects of a metal core . There would be fierce magnetic and gravitational effects close to the orbital path of the black-holes (ie nascent cosmic string)

Mining by stimulated core eruptions
As can be deduced from the above , Venus has a much more radioactive and energetic core than Earth . It acted as a lightning conductor for Earth , soaking up fissionables which would have rendered Earth uninhabitable .Which is why they are described as a pair in planetary formation , even though they are in different orbits .

A yummy packet of goodies .

Venus has been paved over many times by core eruptions . This has been shown by various exploratory probes and fly-bys .
But we do not want to dig down through kilometers of ejecta to get to paydirt .

So , zap it with a fast projectile (like a meteor or comet head) , but make sure to stay away from any black-hole orbits . The subsequent eruption can be harvested .

But we need a place to stay for miners , tourists and settlers .

By using comets , we add lots of volatiles to increase the atmosphere . The pressure effects means that shells in the atmosphere stabilizes within months (not even years) at the temperature and pressure values suitable for humans .

Very broad bands . Hundreds of kilometers deep .

These stabilize very quickly (months , not years) because of the pressure (exponential to the fifth power effects) . Smothering .

Humans would stay in floating habitats , mining the surface eruptions .
Breathable oxygen atmosphere can be manufactured initially by well-known techniques , or by nano methods .
Seeding by bio-engineered organisms can result in a habitable shell hundreds of kilometers thick .

Much , much bigger than Earth's bio-shell . With a fascinating range of adaptive ranges .

Stability :
We are basically constructing a sub-Saturn object . The physics of this has been reasonably well-worked out . Human friendly shells will stay stable for millions of years , regardless of impacts on the planetary surface . (This is due to the high pressure) .
As long as the monkeys can keep their fingers out of the nascent cosmic-string machinery .

One effect is unavoidable :
The increase in pressure and temperature at the surface .
If there is a nascent cosmic string , this will disturb the balance , probably hastening it's formation .
If it is somebody's vegetable patch , somebody will come investigating . Entities that can manipulate time and space on this scale (actually , not very great) , can cause a few problems . But they might just be breeding nascent beings like humans .

A fascinating bio-shell .
Think in terms of ranges .
Pumice-like bodies from the ejecta will float in the dense atmosphere at various heights . Life-forms will adapt and colonise .

Exotic matter churned up by the passage of the nascent cosmic-string bodies will combine with ordinary matter in very strange ways .

Matter with anti-gravity properties .
Imagine if parts of your PNA , RNA , DNA is made out of dark matter ?
Or negative energy exotic matter .
A libido made of tachyonic particles (though most women would say that this is already the case with teenage men .)
Mitochondria that can tap the quantum foam for energy .
On and on it goes .

Is the human singularity and the formation of the Venusian cosmic string supposed to coincide in a cosmic learning experience for both ?

Yes , unequivocably .

Humans better get move on .
The human singularity is projected at 2030 (21 years on ) .
Unless moderated , the merger of the black holes inside Venus to form a cosmic string will release energies in the Beth(0) universe that will rip this corner of the universe apart .

The holographic universe , blackholes and humans .
See articles in Scientific American , NewScientist or Google it . Information stored on the boundary of a singularity (like a black hole or the universe) , encodes all the information inside it.
It is moot which is the mirror .

Sigh .

One would think that this means that the information encoded on the boundary of our present universe is smarter than it’s components .
Alas , it does not mean that the groups of informations inside it is in intra- communication .

This means that humans can (and are) encoded on the boundary of our present universe . They are pari-passu with important characteristics on the children of the universe (black holes) . The information encoded on the surfaces of black holes are qualitively the same as for human entities .

The Nursery .
So , the Earth-Venus pair is actually a human-blackhole nursery .
Probably one of many .

The Social life of Blackholes .
Rather limited .
Hence the evolution of subsets in the parent set (Universe) which are equivalent to the set (ie Humans) .

The theory that universes are blackholes that have evolved to reproduce more black holes is well known . But it has not been taken to it's logical conclusion .

Think of it as a system encoding all the information inside it . It has evolved entities equivalent to itself inside itself to teach its children blackholes how to merge without destruction of information .
Think of humans or other races as mirror-neuron networks in the universe .

And what is the merger ? The formation of branes .
Three blackholes is the minimum for reasons described in previous posts to form a stable brane . Five is better . Klemperer rosettes are favourites .

The real transhuman .
A boy and his blackhole .
A blackhole and its friends .

The children can be any age , sex or race (completely immaterial) .
The mergers of the blackholes into branes drags the children along . They transcend .

And , of course , the parent universe is part of a brane . Hence , it can keep a multi-dimensional eye on things . Exactly like a mother with a bunch of brats . (I mean exactly . The analogy is near-perfect , because humans are a equivalent set of the non-brane universe.)

And no , I am not anthropomorphizing . It is the other way around .
We are like the universe . And the branes connecting it to other universes .

Near a Singularity , the universe (and nearby branes) cluck around like hens . It is critical point . Probabilities get warped and twisted . Asteroids miss by hair's breadth . Wars don’t start . Tyrants surrender with no cause . You get the drift .

Why should they worry ? They know the future . Well , if you don't turn the page , you cannot read on . The action is necessary .

Stay-behinds .
From the universe's viewpoint , the problem blackholes are ones that cannot or most usually , don't want to connect to form branes .

The natural state of a blackhole is autistic . As we near the singularity , the human-blackhole interaction increases and human autism increases as blackholes become more social . I must caution against taking this too literally .

In a sense , humans are the mirror-network to teach blackholes sociability so they can join branes . In the process they drag humans along .

1.Some just become individualistic for the hell of it . Spin themselves into doughnuts , pretzels or more exotic multi-dimensional shapes . You know , artists . These are indulged . This is why variety exists , after all .
2.Serious sanctions involves restricting information flow from parent universe's holographic edge . Ie isolation .
3.Really serious cases can involve destruction .

Human stay behinds would be associated with one of these three .

To avoid them :
Be true . Be nice .

You don't have to smile , but don't sneer .

Andre .

Sunday, March 08, 2009

The Iditarod Effect

The Iditarod Effect
Andre Willers
8 March 2009

The Iditarod is a long-range dog sled race in Alaska .

The latest winners have found that their dogs become stronger , less tired and more enduring on a diet of fat and long times running .

Instead of running them 6 hours on , 6 hours off (an anthropomorphic standard) , the winners ran them up to 14 hours at a stretch . They did not get tired after the first 2 hours , but became stronger . Google "Iditarod" to see .

How can this be ?

Dr Michael S Davis of Oklahoma State University , on behalf of DARPA , investigated . (The military would love this .)

It is theorized that a metabolic switch enables the dogs to utilize fats directly and directly excrete the byproducts , bypassing the normally more efficient sugar mechanisms .

It is not about efficiency . They run like hell all day , leaving a streak of valuable nutrients in their shit and urine . This is compensated from their diet . Eat faster than you excrete . The metabolic switch goes back to unicellular days .

The value to a cursorial raptor is obvious .

The switch uses the "push-down" storage mechanism evolved for fat cells . Breakdown products are simply encapsulated in fat envelopes and excreted via the digestive tract .

Another way of thinking of it is that tiredness (lactic acid , etc) is simply the body trying to be efficient in the usage of scarce resources . If resources are not scarce , it simply discards even usable remnants . But this switch is stubborn .

Carbohydrates are a poor man's diet .
This goes back at least 100 Myrs
See "Death of the Dinosaurs"

Most of the epigenetic and PNA switches are configured for oils or fats .
A dinosaur or pterosaur did not get tired . It just went on and on until it ran out of fuel.
One of the reasons they went extinct . They did not have to be efficient with so much surplus energy around .

Do humans have this ?
Of course . All mammals have . We even have a name a name for it : the Atkins diet . See previous posts .

By bypassing the carbohydrate-energy efficiency metabolism , diabetic problems are , well , bypassed . The body does not try to store surplus energy . It is excreted as fatty globules .

Athletes :
Thus , the worst thing a long-distance athlete can do is carbo-load . He is simply telling his body to be as efficient as possible . Get tired quickly . Get constipated (usually put down to nervousness before the big event , but actually just the body doing what a body has to do .)

Shock .
Remember how the mechanism works . If there is sufficient fats around and no carbohydrates , the body does not try to be efficient . It simply encapsulates foreign matter in fatty globules and excretes them .

Heat and cold shock .
At first sight these seem dissimilar .

But the heat-shock chaperones depend on the garbage disposal of encapsulated rubbish to get rid of fragments that cannot be immediately be reprocessed .
Note vaseline .

Cold-shock (hypothermia)
From studies (see "The ice man cometh" in New Scientist of 21 Feb 2009) , the biggest drop in core temperature is after the person leaves the cold water and stops swimming . He switches from a wasteful fat-mechanism to an efficient carb-mechanism .
Oh well , nobody said it was smart .

So , if somebody is in shock , even blunt trauma shock , do not give them sugar water A good dose of oil is called for .

I would recommend that this is first tested before you try it in a life threatening situation .

Drug trauma .
The same mechanism would apply . Excretion of foreign molecules .

Chug a liter of fish oil . Cheaper and safer than snake oil .


Adiabatic Quantum Computing (AQC)

Adiabatic Quantum Computing (AQC)
Andre Willers
8 Mar 2009

Get used to the term . It is going to crop up everywhere .

See "Financial Crisis:31 Jan 2009" dated 1 Feb 2009
"I thought Turing AI's would happen at about 2010 , concomitant with immune system developments. There seems to have been some developments on the quantum-computing field which has not surfaced yet except for these ripple effects"

The hardware :
These developments are actual hardware quantum computing chips manufactured by D-Wave Systems in Burnaby , British Columbia ,Canada .
See NewScientist 21 Feb 2009 p20 "Most powerful ever quantum computing chip in tests." I had not seen this article at the time , but the ripple effects were showing .

They have already made a 28 qbit chip , and is testing a prototype of a 128 qbit chip . These are greatly in advance of other publicly known capabilities.

For example , a 128 qbit chip makes any RSH encryption insecure . The factorization can be done easily using Shor's algorithm .

This means all your banking , financial or internet so-called "secure" (ie the padlock in the bottom right-hand corner) transactions are no longer secure .

How does it work?
The theory :
The explanations revel in a welter in in-group terms . This is to hide the thing that physicists hate : the process works by violating the Second Law of Thermodynamics (or bending it till it squeaks.) .

AQC was formulated in 1928 by Max Born and Vladimir Fock .

"Adiabatic" means there is no nett energy exchange between the parts of a system . "Quantum" means that the energy can only change in abrupt jumps .
So , if you keep the energy of the whole system below the quantum to the next level , the parts of it can be kept from de-coherence .
Like a bubble in a carpet . As long as you can keep it from escaping at the edges , it can do computations .

The edges are the boundary conditions .
The system needs to be set up by a Beth(>1) system . Human or better , since it at present has no logic gates . A human or better has to be in the loop .
See "Financial Crisis:31 Jan 2009 et al"
Also the importance of boundary conditions in any probability calculation ..

These are not idle philosophical speculations , but the limitations of the present hardware .

But even with those limitations , (or maybe because of them) , a 128 qbit chip is on the order of major computing platforms .

Combined with a mind-computer interface , it will be rather awesome .

And this is just for starters .
But notice the human in the loop . This is not just the technology , but inherent in the theory of AQC .

AQC like an old style calculator , but one that operates in an infinity of dimensions .

That is why we can discern it's ripple effects . Everybody in the know is doing their best to beg , borrow or steal one . They can understand and use it , without the danger of a runaway singularity .
Those without one know they are in danger of being pre-empted .

I want one too. Pretty please ?


The physics of Endurance Bicycles .

The physics of Endurance Bicycles .
Andre Willers
8 Mar 2009

Endurance cyclists .

I was watching the first lot of the Argus-PicknPay cycle tour (109 km) winners in Sea Point when I saw a bearded gentleman in voluminous clothes on a old-style bicycle bedecked with canvas cold-water canvas panniers cruise casually past , looking around with an amused interest .
No drop handles , lycra or intent expression . But he was in the first lot .

At first I thought he was taking the mickey out of others . Then I considered his get-up and realized that he could have easily continued on past the finish and done another 109 km without raising a sweat or a blister .

And he had probably done this as a matter of routine .
One of those Cairo-Cape cyclists .

But how ?

The main drag on a bicycle is from the vortices on the spokes of the wheels . The thickness of the wheels only matter in accelleration , not steady speed . They are the fastest moving parts . Though thin , there are a lot of them (Note solid spokes in racing cycles - the designers are well-aware of this) .

The Coanda-effect .
Thin layers of air cling to the surface . This is the basis of space-shuttles and most modern combat-aircraft .
The water-panniers hanging from both sides of his front and back wheels created a coanda-effect on the spokes . The disk of air surrounding the spokes rotated with the wheel , and did not form vortices . The minimum covering has to be calculated , but my estimate is that if half of the wheel has a covering , spoke drag would be reduced by about a factor of 6 .(It is a non-linear response) .
(You can do this with cardboard )

The guy could pedal 6 times as far as someone without it .

The handle-bar panniers .
Water panniers across old-style handle bars .
This at first seems a no-no . The cross-section is increased . But look at the drag . In conjunction with the wheel and middle-bar panniers , the rider sits in a shock-bubble .
The front-surface is smoother than the rider's irregular visage .
The net drag is lower than those drop-handle cowboys .

The water .
The panniers are canvas bags of water cooled by evaporation . Remember your father or grandfather had these on their car's bumpers . A nice , cool drink , always available . Remember , the weight does not matter much . The bicycle is the second-most efficient machine ever made .(about 98%)

The clothing .
Loose clothing like a jhellaba has evolved over about 10 000 years as the most efficient clothing to wear in hot , arid climate where moderate exertion is called for .
Far better than lycra .

The balls .
Sitting crouched over drop-handles for hours at a time with your legs going up-and-down is not conducive to a healthy sex-life .

The gearing .
He did have gears . But not very fancy ones .

My mother-in-law in the 1930's in Germany thought nothing of cycling 100 to 120 km for a Sunday picnic (+- 4hrs in the morning ) , then taking the train back in the afternoon .

The good old days . When men were men and bicycles had no gears .

Andre .

Friday, March 06, 2009

Negative Pressure : An Important Update .

Negative Pressure : An Important Update .
Andre Willers
6 Mar 2009

An important and critical example of technology bringing about social change .

See Http:// "Negative Presssure: a critical invention"

For actual hardware being developed , see the article "Cunning Plumbing" in NewScientist of 17 Jan 2009 p33 , by Philip Ball .

Philip Ball is a consultant with "Nature" , and has drawn together developments that is as low-key as the ripple of a tsunami in open sea .
The effects will hit us within two years , tops . More likely one year .
And these effects will be massive .

Cheap desalination of seawater has already been developed , and there is a breakneck race as who will be first to fame and fortune of application .
The technology has a host of ancillary applications , from batteries to cleaning up CO2 in the atmosphere .

This is Big Science at its best :
1.They knew it could be done , since trees have been doing it for millions of years .
2.They modeled how it worked on large computing platforms .
3.They then constructed experimental nano-tubes to confirm the model .
4.The cycle of production and improvement via guided R&D is then entered .
The strong point of Big Science . All sorts of things trees never thought of gets added on .

This took about 10 years by reputable scientists , published in peer-reviewed journals.

They are now at production stage .
Acceptance will be immediate .

The main players and their teams :
1.Gerard Hummer of the US National Institute of Health in Bethesda , Maryland .
2.Ben Corry at the University of Western Australia in Perth .
3.Olgica Bakajin of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California .
4.Haiping Fang at the Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics .
5.Bruce Hinds at the University of Kentucky in Lexington .

As you can see , there is not a hope in hell of keeping this particular genie bottled up in patent laws .

How the technology works :
Desalination is a good example .
A nanotube of 0.8 nanometers will pass water-molecules at an extremely fast rate using the negative-pressure , water-chain effect .
A chlorine-ion is surrounded by a hydration-shell , which cannot pass through a 0.8 nm tube due to energy considerations .

You pour the seawater onto the membrane of nanotubes and get pure H2O at the bottom . Rinse the sludge and repeat .

No high pressure or energy is needed as in reverse-osmosis .

What has been done (as far as publicly known from the article)
Ben Corry (Journal of Physical Chemistry B(vol 112 , p1427) ) has constructed nanotubes of 0.92 nm diameter that block out 95% of ions , about 500% more efficient than other present systems .
In other words , a cheap , effective desalination method has been developed .
Industrial application awaits , something our society is very good at .

What has been modeled theoretically :
1.The charge distribution around the nanotube can be configured that it act as pump .
Or vice-versa , as generating a current . (Haiping Fang)
2.Control molecules copied from biological systems have been tacked onto the ends of the tubes . These can act as valves or pumps .(Hummer,Hinds)
3.It works for gases as well (Bakajin)

And much more .

The Impact .
Massive and fast .
On the order of the introduction of internal combustion engines ,but faster .
We are not talking about some putative technology , but a proven , scientifically reputable technology anyone can duplicate .

The present little squabble about futures (ie the financial crisis) , will simply be swallowed up .

1.Despair and hope .
This will have the biggest immediate effect .
Humans optimize on their grandchildren .
They also read the predictions of global warming , the uninhabitability of zones around the equator .
This engendered a real sickness in the human noo-sphere .
Those who have , scrabble to keep it . Those who don't , scrabble to survive .
And it hasn't even happened ,yet !

Now , those with no hope for their descendants suddenly have a viable alternative to attempted emigration to more temperate zones .

Areas whose populations know they are destined for the scrapheap according to global warming and climate change predictions , will suddenly have new prospects . Literally billions of people will be immediately affected by that most insidious of viruses , hope .

Things might very well be better at home .

Ho-ho-ho !
What I am laughing at is that US is at present building walls to keep Mexican immigrants out because of projected shortages in their own society . Instead , the shortage will be a shortage of labour and they will have to do a fast u-turn .
Might have to use the wall to keep them in !

The same for Europe vis-à-vis Africa and the East .

2.Cheap Desalination
California's governor (Schwarzenegger) has declared a state of emergency due to lack of water in March 2009 . They have run out of water . Now .A prolonged drought has decreased their water for personal and irrigation use to below survival level . They have a choice of drinking or starving .
Or desalinate .
There are immense pressures and rewards . Literally , extinction or billions of dollars .
What do you think will happen ?

All coastal , desert areas will jump in value .
There would be dangers of pollution in enclosed bays or seas (like the Med)

3.That pesky global warming .
CO2 can be cleansed by using this technology(since it can be used for gases .)

If cars (or electric power plants) use solar energy in conjunction with this technology to generate their own hydrocarbon fuel from atmospheric carbon and water , the danger is quite real that the CO2 levels will fall too low and there would be a threat of an ice age .
This is a real threat , since it would be more profitable .
The same factors driving present global warming would then be driving global cooling .

And it can happen quickly .

4.Maxwell's demons .
They should be possible by using valves at the ends of the nanotubes .

5 Andre's demons (see "Negative Kelvin"
Maybe ,

6. Energy generation .
Putting a Haiping Fang membrane in reverse into a water or air current will generate electrical power .

7. Goodbye platinum .
The car's exhaust gases can be much more efficiently re-utilized .
Unused energy can be converted to a hydrocarbon and fed back into the fuel system .

8. Decent batteries .
Hopefully .

9. Forced Market Stochastic Resonance .
Markets are by nature forward looking and optimistic . But they can get into a tailspin
If they do , add uncertainty of an optimistic nature . The optimistic elements in the market resonate with the added optimistic stochastic elements . The optimistic elements can be identified (or even forced into existence) .

These are basically stocks at a discount to their future value .
(Ask Warren Buffett : he uses the same mechanism in virtual mode .)

The knowledge of this particular nano- technology is already out there . Other people follow these technologies . I can already detect ripple effects (ie Non-linear effects .) The present crash is not following the prescribed pattern .

For example , Sub-prime mortgages on desert ground might suddenly be very valuable . This warps the very nature of getting rid of them . Nobody wants to be remembered as the one that sold Manhattan Island for a handful of beads .
The uncertainty not only slows things down , but also raises the average value of all mortgages .
In the meantime , astute investors have been keenly watching stochastic peaks . Where does the resonance occur ? Buy . It will not be the cheapest , but will have the promise of most future growth .
So , even supposedly junk mortgages have a value .
Astute investers buy supposedly worthless mortgages , to get their hands on some parcels nobody else has seen the value of .

This is what is occurring now . The crash is not smooth enough . People with capital are cherry-picking assets they expect to appreciate more than what is already discounted . And these assets are in the wrong places .

Cars are a good example . The automotive industry should have been junked . Why not ? Because , with the new technology most of it is quite usable .

Multi-location .
With the resurgence of hope , many (if not most) of the emigrants keep two homes .(A common phenomenon in South Africa) . A shack at home , and a residence where they work . They need transport between the two .
Also , an inter-urban transport at work .
So , the future Mexican worker in the US will need two cars .
But the shack is usually in a rural area , where the roads are decaying and there is no prospect of improvement .
These are not poor people in the normal sense .
But they do need a real 4x4 .

Can you see the dichotomy ? Somebody suspects that there is a strong new market for automobiles . But it will only grow under a set of assumptions at odds with the present .

Urbanization might even reverse , or at least , bi-locate .
All over the world . A really big market for real 4x4's .
(Note the suburban SUV in the US and SA)

It seems that the whole ball-game has changed , but most players have not even heard the whistle , never mind read the new rules .

But beware .
Once the formal announcement is made (which I expect around July or Aug 2009) the shit will really hit the fan .
A tsunami .
Remember watching the tsunami of Dec 2004 and thinking " But this can't really be happening . 250 000 people drowning before our eyes . " But it can . And this change is already happening .

Or the markets losing half their value .

Or bouncing back .

The healing of the noo-sphere will release enormous amounts of capital . Also , entrepreneurial energy .
Fancy talk for saying that a third of the human race can stop worrying that their grand-children are doomed and they better start worrying about how to increase their share of the wealth .

And so it goes .

Andre .

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Human Singularities and Puberty .

Human Singularities and Puberty .
Andre Willers
3 Mar 2009

Synopsis :
The paring of neuronal-networks following the singularities of growth-spurts during babyhood and start of puberty defines the nature of the entity .
This has relevance to the near general singularity .
Two sexes decreases the number of iterations to achieve singularity very significantly.

Discussion :
Humans have at least two episodes of explosive neuron-connectivity growth : at babyhood , then at puberty . During these episodes , the whole neuronal-network gets rewired .
Then , it gets pared : the least-used elements gets re-absorbed , but in a non-linear fashion .

What is nifty about this, is that the puberty singularity can build on the framework of the baby Singularity-paring . Memes are substituted for genes , with superior learning capability . (Ie paring like for languages is done via memes) . Beats gene-instincts .

This works fine , except that at puberty the system has a will of its own regarding what is to be pruned .

General :
Each human singularity can be broken down into two functional elements .
1.The explosive growth of neuron connections . Very fast .
2.This is intertwined with the paring mechanism .
Unused or unwanted neuron pathways are absorbed .
And how does the network know this ? Neural transmitters like serotonin , dopamine , et al .

By age of puberty , clumps of mirror-neurons have evolved . They can keep on existing if they can generate pulses of aha-neurotransmitters .

Elementary evolution : the ones that do this , keep on existing .

The kicker comes when the paring mechanisms get into gear . The paring mechanism is not just passive : it is active . This is another way of saying that the paring effect is non-linear . The post-pubertal (more exactly , the post pubertal singularity ) paring mechanism determines the nature of the resulting intelligence .

Low-serotonin , low-dopamine brains are generally more intelligent , as these molecules are re-absorbed too rapidly at the synapse level . But the aha-kickers from the mirror-neuron complexes keep them alive as entities . Things learned before .

This is getting too complicated to do properly in English .

The crucial phase in the precious little sprout is the post-puberty , paring stage .
The mechanism nature usually uses is responsibility (use of mirror-networks for the one to whom fellow-feeling is due) . The others are pared , with concomitant loss of intelligence .
Hence the emphasis on lack of responsibility in university days . The hope is that the little monsters might remain smart enough to make some money for the family .

They should start a little bit earlier .

Games :
The mechanism that has evolved to beat this . Semi-responsibility .
The Fan .The Collector . The Enthusiast .
Also called neotenism .

So , if you want a smart brat , the method is obvious . The general increase in IQ measurement follows . (The post-pubertal paring follows a random walk based on the baby-paring.)
Also called the Flynn effect . The increase is 3 IQ points per decade since 1918 . A random-walk effect .

The General Singularity .
We see that humans have a deep visceral and neuronal understanding of singularities , since each one went through at least two .

But since each one was accompanied by paring process , we have to ask :
What will be the paring in the two different run-ups to the singularity ?
Is there Reserve type mechanism operating?
Looking at the general Reserve Argument (see "Newtools: reserve") , only 1/3 will make it through . The rest will be pared (ie fail to make the singularity.).

Iteration .
From the general iteration , we expect everyone to make it through eventually (but infinity can be a very long time.)
This would be true if the two processes are independent .
But if they are interdependent , the number of iterations is decreased factorially .

Why does puberty play such an important role in Singularity(2) ?

Answer :
Because having two sexes decreases the number of iterations to the singularity dramatically . This ties in with the two routes to Singularity sketched before (Facebookism(Feminine) and hardware(male) )

But why ?

Even for ordinary genetic fitness two sexes are superior to one sex .

The reason is the truncation of the bottom-parts of the random curves . In the connected pair M-F , if one hits a negative , it tells the other to avoid it . The net result is superior to both and can be calculated .
It is an inflation of the random-radius from the center far beyond expected from beth(0) random-walk .

Sex is a Beth(1) technology !
Probability is steered .
This is a surprise .
Note the communication element .
Just having two bits of something is not sufficient . They have to communicate at a very basic level .

This means that two quantum-linked particles will not act as the sum of its parts . But this contradicts the basis of physics , that field-effects can be summated for each particle separately .

Or to put it another way , macro-quantum pairs of particles can be created .
At any size .

It also means that the universe has to inflate at faster than random walk if it has quantum-linked particles . This has direct relevance to worm-hole openings . If you inflate the wormhole-opening with connected particles , it will inflate it without needing exotic matter . Much easier .

You can also calculate the netto number of wormhole-pairs by looking at the expansion of the universe . It should expand at a random-walk rate . Any discrepancy means deliberate distortion by entities using it for transport .

But we have to take warfare into account . Destroying one of a matched pair of wormhole-singularities can release an annoying amount of undirected energy . So they simply projected one wormhole-mouth past the boundary of the light-horizon of the universe . This leaves an unmatched inflator . Let the later generations worry about the inflation of the universe . Sounds familiar ?

Sum over all the galaxies over the last 13 billion years in this rather small universe and you can work out the probabilities yourself .

And puberty ?
Getting laid is a bit of a problem if you take the last 13 billion years in this universe , plus other universes , plus your parents and her parents into account . And you still have to ask her .

A sense of priorities is important .