Thursday, May 27, 2010

Mediterranean Canyons

Mediterranean Canyons
Andre Willers
27 May 2010

Synopsis :
The deltas of large , old rivers on the Mediterranean shore has huge , waterfilled caverns under them . A relatively thin and unstable layer of compacted silt overlies them . This liquefies easily in tremors , and is sensitive to the Med level , salinity and riverflows .(ie climate)

Discussion :
Recent archaeological of sunken Egyptian constructions and statues in Alexandria have once again highlighted the essential soil-instability in the Nile Delta .
What gives ?

This is old knowledge , but worth a revision .

The Med has at least three episodes of drying up in the last 10 million years . The last as recent as 1 million years ago . The Straights of Gibraltar close due to earthquakes .
The evaporation rate is higher than river-inflow rate . So the Med dries up .

But look at the rivers . They keep flowing , but now they have to fall at least about 1500 feet to the new level . In the process , they carve out huge canyons . The silt gets deposited around the delta of the river , as the drying-out is a relatively slow process
(Think Grand Canyon in USA) . The Nile and Rhone , for example , were not little streams , but drained large parts of continents .
Spectacular waterfalls .

Then another earthquake opened the Straights of Gibraltar again . Even more spectacular waterfall as the Atlantic surges into the Med to fill it in a relatively short time .

Notice what happens in the canyons :
The warmer , fresh riverwater slides over the heavier , colder saline seawater . The silt in the riverwater compacts in arches , forming huge caverns in the old canyons . Remember , this happen much more rapidly than the drying-out episodes .

Repeat this three times .

What can we see today ?

The old , large rivers like the Nile and the Rhone has extensive deltas and a large underwater shallow sediment field . There are extensive and very large underwater caverns , in what used to be the old canyons .

The surface soil liquefies easily in earthquakes . Entire cities can and have disappeared overnight . Some are known in the Nile delta . Not much search has been done in the Rhone delta (Marseille) .

Where Else ?
The last 10 million years had a number of episodes when Northern Africa was well-watered with large rivers draining half a continent .

Keeping the above in mind , a cursory look at a topographical map suggests the following (or use GoogleMaps) :

1.Gabes (Tunisia) (10 Degrees East , 34 Degrees North) . Large silt plains in the Med and very large drainage hinterland , with remnants of rivers and lakes .
Note that Carthage was on the edge of this system . Deep soil and steady water .

2.Marsa-al-Burayab (Libya) (19 Degrees East , 31 Degrees North)
Large silt plains in the Med and very large drainage hinterland , with remnants of rivers and lakes . Very wide delta .

3.Ebro (Spain) :
An extensive flood plain , both on land and underwater) . The main outlet seems to have switched often . Notice the similarity with North Africa .

4.Malta .
Intriguing . There should be deep caverns connecting Southern Sicily and Malta .
Also between Western Sicily and the Island of Pantalleria . Note effect of strong currents .

5.Po river .
Look between Venice and Comacchio . The Po with its raised banks would wander over a large delta . But look at the peninsula around Ca Tiepolo .

Black Sea Event .
About 8000 years ago a series of earthquakes on the Anatolian Faults opened the Black Sea to the Med (Straights of Dardanelles) . Salt water flooded in and changed a lake into a Sea . Plenty of archeological evidence .

If this has been a frequent geological occurrence , as seems likely , we can also expect very large caverns at the old mouths of the Danube , Dnepr , Bug , etc .

Note that this event would have lowered the Med level , leading to large-scale instability on all Med deltas . Maybe some old Egyptian records indicate this . It will show up as lowering of the Nile flooding in the delta , especially .
Shallow harbours unusable all over the Med . This should have left some traces .
Adjustments to changes in sea-depths around sensitive tectonic areas would probably lead to some strong earthquakes , maybe even swarms of quakes .

Speculation :
Even a moderate quake can shut the Dardanelles again . What will be present consequences ? Note the ecological results and possible human intervention (canals , even using nuclear devices to redig the Dardanelles)

Cities :
Note that cities are built on the site of maximum instability . This is to be expected .
Remember , this where maximum rewards in short term can be obtained . Skating on the edge of strong attractors . Humans are suckers for this .(Cf Vesuvius)

So , if you are looking for caverns , look to Cairo , Marseille , Carthage , Venice , Valencia , Odessa , etc .

This is where the soil is deepest , most well-watered and fertile . Where the most fishes are . Also the least pollution .

Ecological note
Fishing in the Med and Black Sea should have been wiped out long ago . But the fishes have a refuge cycle in the caverns .
The cost of getting them out of there exceeds value .
If the fishers go in aggressively , they risk collapsing or poisoning the cities on top of them .
The caverns are very large , and in many cases the volume exceeds the productive land capacity of the country above them (eg Libya) .
Energy is provided by "pollutants" , (eg nitrogen fertilizers , detergents , etc,etc . This is filtered through the cavern's compacted many-pocketed silt walls .
And they all need carbon , being carbon-based life-forms . A huge carbon-sink .

The combination of filters and life-forms create a huge garbage disposal in the basement .

Humans can expedite this process by processing their garbage directly into the basement caverns . With a modicum of care , this would create a bio-reactor that would easily feed and water the top-side population .

The ultimate sub-urbanites .


Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Optimal Cost of Cars

Optimal Cost of Cars
Andre Willers
25 May 2010

If accumulated maintenance(excluding fuel) exceeds 1/3 of remaining book-value , sell it .

Discussion :
The argument used in "New Tools" "Reserves" is ideal here . We argue on the number of errors in the vehicle , without necessarily specifying the particular errors .

Book Price :
The optimum usage is 1/3 of the price . The reserve . The book price costs in future expenses . This includes the Industry's expectancy of future expenses .

Maintenance :
Service and repairs . The Accumulated Maintenance is the sum of these since you bought the vehicle .

Optimal usage :
When Accumulated Maintenance = 1/3 Book Price .
This is a Retrospective argument , hence very accurate .
It is also fractal . The car can be second hand . Note that this is how second-hand car dealers work . What you may have spent on the car does not add an iota to his offer .

Example :
Renault Scenic 1998 : 81 000 km
Book Price 36 000
Accumulated Maintenance = regular services and 3 new tyres .
=approx 8 000
Room for future maintenance = 1/3*36000 – 8000
= 4000

Dicey .
A blown gasket will cost about 6 000 . But the car is in good condition and has low km's . But , it is on the downhill slide of needing increasing repairs .

A bargain for a do-it-yourself person , but not ideal for a little old lady .

Flip a coin .


Thursday, May 20, 2010

Itarin v12

Itarin v12
Andre Willers
20 May 2010

Synopsis :
Optimization of visual modalities using lenses .

Discussion :
Previous Itarin discussions involved training the normal eye's retinal neural networks to compensate for eye-lens and corneal defects using Itarin v1-v11 . This was useful for about 10 years , but now external lenses have to be used .

Multifocals :
I was handed a pair of multi-focals (after paying a small fortune) , with the blithe assurance that I would adapt to it within about two weeks .
1.This adaptation is by the retina-mind complex .
2.This adaptation is sub-optimal , by definition . A hit-or-miss affair .

What is needed is a theory and a training program .

Theory :
See previous Itarin documentation . But we expand it to include different modalities of retina neural-network processing . One for each set of lenses .
There has been hints of it . Training processed faster and better by alternating glasses and unaided vision .

1.Are the retinal neurons complex enough to handle multiple modalities ?
Yes . See work done on single-neuron recognition of faces .

2.Automatic switching .
Portions of the network would change between modalities with very little training .
This is inherent in the nature of neural networks .
This surfaces as "bleedthrough" . A gestalt effect . All modalities get better .

3.How many modalities are minimum necessary sufficient ?
From previous dimensional systems work , four .
Unaided vision , Multifocal lenses usually includes 2 new focals . An extra pair of cheap reading glasses makes four .

4.Diet .
Initially , the training process would require the formation of extra connections and maybe neurons in the retina-brain . Brain food like essential fatty acids (cod liver oil , flaxseed oil) and perhaps HGH promoters will help .

5.Time required:
Long-term neural potentiation thresholds (about 5 minutes) have to reached and slightly exceeded for optimal effect . The boring bit .
Once a day for about a week .
Then once a month.
Research is needed .

6.Subjective experiences :
Even a short training session gives a feeling of relaxation and stress relief . This is because of unconscious squinting and facial muscle tensing relaxing as vision improves .

Natural vision improves because of "bleedthrough" effect . The training has to be carried through , as this short-term relief will probably lead to relapse of training . A common enough problem . Taper off and have a refresher training session about once a month .

The Training Systems .
1.Each session has to be about 5 minutes per set of glasses (multifocal , reading) and unaided vision (ie normal lenses) .
Fifteen minutes in all . Boring .

2. Itarin v1 to v11 can be used . Some quick results .

3.Itarin v12 .
Populate the screen of a spreadsheet (like Excel) from a master cell (like "B") .
"B" gives the most bang for a buck in terms of visual training (curve , line, corner)
Squash the Column Width ("Format-Column-Autofit Selection") to minimum size .

The Trick : The Modified Owl Maneuvre (MOM) .
1.Look at the centre . Move the center of your gaze in an infinity figure . ("8" on it's side)
2.Do the same with the "8" upright .
3. Do the same with the "8" tilted 45 degrees to the right .
4. Do the same with the "8" tilted 45 degrees to the left .
5.Repeat for five minutes for all 4 (1.25 mins for each rotation)
6.Then repeat for each set of lenses . Use a kitchen timer .
7.That’s it .

You will find items (3 and 4) quite difficult initially .

Why the modified Owl Maneuvre ?
The owl only needs to calibrate two eyes in two dimensions (+) , ie up and down , right and left , as it has nearly no visual defects like astigmatism . An astigmatic owl is a dead owl .
With visual defects , an entity has to have loops around the ends of the crucifix figure. Hence the "8" rotated around at 45 degree angles .

The end result :
You should end up with a unaided visual system suitable for most tasks . The lenses would still be needed for training or tasks at the extremes .
We cannot dispense with the lenses , but can expand the useful boundaries of unaided vision .

Here's looking at you , kid .


Tuesday, May 18, 2010


Andre Willers
18 May 2010

Safety :
A Level III Civilization would be needed to implement these ideas .
Though indications are that LHC and Tokamaks may develop localized pockets of higher-orders of randomness near the boundaries of the containers due to small fluctuations in magnetic fields , leading to fusion effects .
See "Orders of Randomness"
But this already-released technology .
Safety is estimated at 0.98

A big ball of gas is so boring . We design more interesting suns .

Discussion .

We follow the known laws of physics : ie you can calculate each of the shapes below .

Driver Engine :
A rapidly rotating quasar .(Rroq)
The shapes we envisage are possible , but not stable . They will need an input driver .

1.Toroidal Sun.
Spin up a sufficiently large star using a Rroq . It will form a toroidal sun .

2.An Orbit of Toroidal Suns .
Like rings on an elliptical string .
Spin up a sufficiently large , dense gas-cloud using a pulsating Rroq . It will form a number of toroidal suns . By varying and steering the pulses , an orbit of toroidal suns can be formed around the center of gravity . A planet there would have a really interesting sky , not to mention geology .

3.Possible Orbits .
NewScientist in the early 2000's published an article showing some possible orbital configurations . While there was no proof that an infinite number are possible , the about 40 shown had some very fancy shapes . Non-intuitive curliques , loop-crossing , etc . They were not stable , but that is not a concern here .

4.Square , triangular , pyramidal and other simple geometrical Suns .
Fourier transforms can be executed upon stars . A combination of Para(3) above and a single Rroq should make these possible , though your sun might wobble a bit . Not very esthetic .

5.Multiple Rroqs .
Fine control is possible . Hollow square suns , etc become possible . Multiple vacuoles or holes inside stars . Really fancy suns and orbitals of suns .
Any topological form .

6.Controlled , repetitive novae .
A bit like Cepheids .

7.Self-powered Tippler-like machines to move between dimensions , universes and branes .
Hint : paths through topological "holes" will lead to alternate universes or branes (sets of universes)

8. This is about kindergarden level for a post-singularity system .

9. Add habitats
For life-forms from gas-cloud level , biological level , electronic level down to Planck level and sprinkle with suitable seed-lifeforms . This would be about Grade 1 for a post-singularity system .

"Design-a-Sun" kits are available from God@Universum.cosmos

Andre .

Sunday, May 16, 2010


Hi ,
Grade 8 (old std 6) literacy skill seems terrible , but this was where the Afrikaner and lower class English were in the 1920's .

More important , what are the variances ?

Are the smart children getting educated?

This whole problem is at root a problem of the technological age . The percentage of working population needed to produce all the hardware goods for a society is now about 5-10 percent . The rest are soaked up by civil service , soft careers like primary nursing and care for the increasing number of elderly as life-expectancies increase , trade , etc .

Only the top 10 percentile need strive for production employment or get it . And all the learners know it . Why should they bother ?

The New Model (call it the Spaza model)
Teach them redistribution of wealth skills .
Barefoot nursing , elementary computer skills (note computer tracking system developed for completely illterate San) , hairdressing (the oldest human profession ) , child-caring , etc , etc .

The successful ones will need to top up their education . Classes for these should be available on demand . This is already available in the private sector , but there are a lot of charlatans . This is where the education Dept should be focussing . The ones who want to learn and are willing to fork out money for it .
But in the meantime teach elementary survival skills to the hordes (90%) who are unemployable .
Ways of redistributing wealth that does not involve crime .

This is not just a problem in RSA . It is worldwide .

Old age care is going to become a very valuable skill . (Like an English teacher in the Far-East during 1980 - 2000 period .)

A series of reputable certificates and diplomas leading into Baccalaurate levels of old age care will become increasingly valuable . The lower levels does not even require literacy , but ascending levels will require increasing levels of literacy . Human greed will do the rest .

Helpfully yours

Super Truffle

Super Truffle
Andre Willers

16 May 2010

Synopsis :

Hyper attractive pheromones for mammalians are possible .

Discussion :

This includes humans .

Catnip for the feline family is well-known and used . A sexual arousal pheromone .

The Perigord Truffle :

The genes for this has been sequenced recently . About 7 500 genes .(NewSci of 3 April 2010 p5)

Pigs and squirrels are particularly susceptible , but so are humans . Ask any chef .

(They eat the fungi and excrete the spores , spreading the fungi. )

The sewerage works of France should be a rich source vaseromonal activation chemicals .

Pheromones and scent .

This is first time that a pheromonal arousal system could be tied to a particular gene-sequence . Scents previously were mixtures . We can now create a hyper-truffle pheromone by tweaking the genes . Already ongoing , using human greed as a standard . E-coli tweaks for manufacture . .

What will be the result ?

Extensive usage by fast-food joints like MacDonalds , Burgers , etc will lead to activation of human pheromonal organs long dormant . The perfume industry will jump on the bandwagon .

Initially it will be very successful , but large concentrations will be needed . We have been through this before . Satiation neural responses have evolved .

It is not for nothing that vasemoronal networks have been de-activated .

But a large concentration pheromones will overwhelm neural inhibitions .

A sniffed drug that enhances computer game playing .

The brain synthesizes enhanced smell experiences from learned pheromones , but many of them are addictive .

By gad , a new perversion ! I should stop doing this .

How many smells do you need ?

Luckily , we already know that .


Look it up .

A photic–vasemoronal interaction .

We can use this in reverse .

Use e-pheromones to entice e-viruses into traps .

Or more intriguingly , then reverse the process again to entice real viruses into traps .

This can be done , because (A + ~A < Universum) . Discussed before . The pathway back does not have to be the pathway forward .

I am not going into virtual viruses.

What does this mean ?

Shine a very bright light in the mouth cavity and fluctuate it In and out seems to be sufficient . The light dentists use to set fillings .

If you have flu , go to your dentist and ask him to shine that very bright light in your mouth for about 2 seconds .

That's it .

And you thought you would only see the Bright Light when you die .

Andre .

Solar Shield II

Solar Shield II
Andre Willers

16 May 2010

Also known as Space-based reflectors , Sun shields , Sun umbrellas , Solar umbrellas .

Safety :

These technologies are not safe , but are already in public domain .

But they are safer than most proposed geoengineering schemes in that they are dynamic and can be stopped fairly quickly if unforeseen deletrious effects occur .

Synopsis :

Geoengineering is suddenly fashionable after the expected failure of protocols to limit CO2 emission on planetary scale . (Expected because of Tragedy of the Commons argument.)

See NewScientist of 3 Apr 2010 . There has also been a meeting at Asimolar , hopefully similar to a meeting at the same venue 35 years ago to get some ethical order in bio-engineering .

Republished in Addendum A below are some old arguments of mine.

This gives some fairly safe technologies to accomplish these aims .

Note that a major advantage is that these technologies do not need a consensus to be effective . Rich enough nations (USA , Russia , China , Japan , India) can implement them unilaterally or in small coalitions for a modest price . These nations also badly need projects like these to soak up the differences between wealth-creation and monetary-unit creation . See "Financial Crises 14 May 2010"

Be cool , Man .



Addendum A
See "Solar Shield"

See "Orion , Gaia needs you"

See "Training the Immune system"

Solar Shield

Andre Willers

Global warming is not just a short term problem . Barring catastrophe , human energy generation from fusion and non-solar sources will within a few centuries exceed the solar influx . We will need planetary air-conditioning .

(See Larry Niven's Puppeteer Planets)

At first , the simplest way is to put up an umbrella .

A simple solar Umbrella can be created by injecting Lunar reflecting dust into a hyperbolic orbit between the sun and Earth by mass-drivers on Luna .

The space elements of a moonbase and mass-drivers an be done with existing technology .

The Terran climate models needed for effective climate-control also exists , but can do with some refining .

The political control of an effective climate control system still needs some work .

The money , paradoxically , is the easiest . Big insurance companies (like Swiss Re , etc ) can easily fork up the estimated $60 billion this will cost . ( One big hurricane can cost $20 billion in damages .)

Later on it gets trickier .

At higher levels of planetary energy generation , Hilsch-tube lasers could directly pump energy out . A model that springs to mind is a fairly massive object (a few billion tons) in a perpetually skipping orbit . Propulsion would be by Hilsch-tube lasers (existing technology) and fusion (Orion-type existing tech.) More elegantly , the lasers would be boosted by fusion processes in the laser . This could be made made fairly fail-safe , so that there would be a nett energy loss to the planet . The matter-loss would have to be topped up ( comets?)

Of course , the same technology could be used to strip-mine a planet or sun .

Cascaded Hilsch-tubes were used in the South-African Uranium235-enrichment process for weapons purposes . A large physical or magnetic Hisch-tube cascade can be used like a mass-spectrometer to separate elements .

It would make a great booster for light-sails , or an awesome weapon . Also , cheap , pure elements

Time horizen : since all the above elements are based on standard physics , it can be done . Whether it will be , depends on humans .



Reusable reaction mass.


Andre Willers


Imagine a 50 ton solar-powered launching satelite with a set of mass-driver rings in LEO at 18 000 mph in a West-to-East Low Earth Orbit .

Let it accellerate a 50 ton payload via mass-driver to 36 000 mph in some tangential direction .

In reaction , the Launching satelite will now orbit at 18 000 mph in an East-to-West direction .

Of course it is a bit more complicated than this , but the orbital mechanics are well within present technology (and really old maths) .

Docking new craft with the Launching satelite is also proven technology (ref International Space Station). This can then be relaunched in the opposite direction .

Essentially , the same reaction mass can be used over and over again , as long as it has been in orbit and an energy source is available (solar power , nuclear , etc).

All you need to do is get off-planet . Later on , the most valuable real-estate becomes in-vacuo mass (because you can use mass-drivers cheaply).

The orbit can be around any planet or sun .

The station need never decay .

One can imagine a Solar System ( at various ages ) with literally millions of millennia-old booster-stations in various solar and planetary orbits , each of various technological levels of development . They are inhabited , of course . Throw in some collapses and a singularity or two .

The political system and races will be quite fragmented .

Alien invaders would only consider a system with a developed transport infrastructure and fragmented culture .

This stellar signature should be quite distinct . The end result should be a Dyson-sphere or Ringworlds . But the intermediate stages will vary considerably .

They should also be observed more easily .

Jupiter class worlds will be moved closer to the sun for more efficient dismantling .

Planetary blobs and ringworlds should be observable by striations . Technological ramp-ups up waste-energy dispersal should be measurable if there are handy gas-clouds of various distances nearby . Reflections of planetary laser-heat dispersals varying over time might give a clue .

As can be seen , arriving at the optimum Dyson sphere stage will be outmatched by the number of civilizations either en-route or become agley .

To quote a Sol humanoid , each happy civilization is the same , but each unhappy one is unhappy in its own way .

Happy universes !


Thursday, May 13, 2010

Failed State

Failed State
Andre Willers
14 May 2010

Synopsis :
Failed states have one and only one characteristic : They cannot defend or maintain themselves .

Discussion :
Is RSA a failed state ?
It has been seen as a failed state since 1977 , during the Apartheid Regime .Kissinger's infamous grunt when asked about SA troops in Angola said it all . The US State Dept , CIA , Defense Dept has written RSA off as a failed state .

This was held in abeyance during 1994 – 1999 . During the Mbeki and then Zuma administrations , RSA was seen to go down the normal tubes of African failed states .

Argument :
The State has two primary functions:
1.Defend itself .
2.Use taxes to get the money to defend itself .
If it cannot do these two elementary functions , it is a failed state .

Discussion :
1.The SANDF has about 60 000 members , which a third are HIV positive . Experienced non-coms have been maneuvered out in the name of BEE .
They have mutinied at least once in a public manner .
Rating (1/10)

Private armies of 3 groups number about 180 000 , mostly veteran old SADF troopies and non-coms .
Rating (1/10)

The Militia Reserve (Commando's) have been disbanded .
There is no military reserve .

This used to be the only well-functional government department .
Sigh .
The consultantcy firm that made them efficient has been moved to HomeAffairs . SARS has decayed back into the incompetent mess it was before . My personal experience :
Rating (4/10)

The other State Functions:
The State is supposed to do large scale things outside private enterprise .

1.Education . A lamentable failure . The biggest budget item .
Rating (3/10) . Official stats . Only a third are literate.
2.Power (ESKOM)
Rating (6/10) At present
Rating (5/10) . Big cities still have water .
4 Sewerage
Rating (0.7/10) Official Stats . A disaster.
5.Transport :
5.1 Roads . Municipal roads are a disaster . National roads are passable , but expensive due to tolls .
Rating (3/10)
5.2 Railways . Rural lines are a disaster . National lines are maintained .
Rating (6/10)
5.3 Pipelines .
Rating (9/10)
5.4 Ports .
Rating (6/10)
5.5 Airports
Rating (7/10)
6. Health
A disaster .
Rating (2/10)
7. Justice
The State cannot safeguard it's citizens .
Rating (2/10)
8 Food. RSA is now a net food importer .
Rating (3/10)
9 Security of land tenure
Rating (8/10) A lot of fraud via CIPRO.
10 Security of intellectual property rights (CIPRO)
Rating (3/10)
11. Water .
Rating (4/10)
12. Financial systems .
Rating (4/10)

These express existing conditions . After 15 years of rule by the same incompetents , I see no reason why it should suddenly change . It will get worse .

Summing :
Essential State functions:
PEssential =6/10 = 0.6
Other :
POther= 71.7/160= 0.448125

PState= (0.6 + 0.449)/2 =0.524

A failed state would be if PState <0.33
A succesful state would be if PState >0.66

Not what I expected . RSA can go either way , but the critical elements are the Defence Forces in the Essential State functions . These can be ramped up within about 6 weeks . But Reserves are a major problem .

Basically , the State is weak in service delivery and even in the Army , but has strong enough monetary systems to hire mercenaries like the private armies (called security firms)

Expect militarization of RSA and aggressive expansion into Africa . This is already happening economically . But more efficient usage of land and mineral resources would pay for cost of the military machine .

If you look at all the elements of the Other state functions , you will see that most of them will get better by exporting an aggressive expansionist groups of persons .

Zuma seems ideally positioned .
From a Real-Politik viewpoint , if Africans do not take control of their territory , the Indians and Chinese will (they already are doing this)

So Emperor Zuma is a high probability , and even desirable

And White Afrikaners ?
They make superb lieutenants . But they have failed twice in 100 years to run their own national affairs . (Boer War , 1994)

Many of them will come back if there is an aggressive incursion into Africa , resulting in an Empire of Africa .

Timespan is about 1.5 to 2 years from now before the Armoured Impis lunge northwards .

All hail Emperor Zuma .


Financial Crisis 14 May 2010

Financial Crisis 14 May 2010
Andre Willers
14 May 2010

Wealth grew faster than the number of monetary units . Misguided monetary policies created huge vacuoles of monetary demand . These are being filled in by a series of burps , called crises . See discussion in Appendix A .

Discussion :

A Salute to Angela Merkel .
On Sunday , 9th of May 2010 , she saved hundreds of millions of lives .
She forced the German cabinet to bail out Greece , against 90% opposition .

Consequences if she had not :
Greece , then Spain , then Italy , then eastern European states would have seceded from the EU monetary union , and thus the EU . Europe would have been back in the early 1930's . A Failed State , fracturing on ethnic lines .

General warfare like the collapse of Yugoslavia would have followed within 2.5 years. While this would not have been in Russia's optimal interest , it would have no choice but to become involved . This would have dragged in the USA (there are still large USA garrisons in Germany) , and China .
A right mess .
WW 2.5

As an Ossie , she at least had learned enough from history not to repeat it .
A salute is definitely called for .

What will happen now ?
Very little . Stock markets will keep on rising .
Stock markets will keep on selling discounted future values a bit more enthusiastically as number of monetary units more closely match wealth .
The trillions were simply soaked up by the accumulated difference between wealth creation and monetary creation .

Big inflation has not happened after the trillions created in the USA burp .
See the gold price . The slight increase was created by uncertainty , not massive inflation .
There is still not enough monetary units to soak up the surplus wealth .
And as we go into the Singularity , wealth is being created at even higher rates .

India and Russia
There will probably be a smaller burp in India and Russia .

And China ?
There are no large vacuoles of monetary demand . By keeping the yuan tied to the dollar and encouraging capital inflow , there are sufficient number of monetary units to match wealth creation .
Internal property values show a tendency towards a bubble , but this is not a vacuole .
Maybe they read my blog .

Why are we in this mess ?

The failure of academia .
I'm afraid the mathematicians have to carry the can .Economic models are based on mathematical models . The latest disaster is called the Black-Scholes equations , the basis of hedge funds .The basis of this is that the highest order of randomness is flip a coin . Yet we know this is not true . See "Order of randomness" or "New Tools" .

The result was the collapse of Long Term Capital Management , which had to be bailed out . Losses were a modest 50 Trillion . Yet they still persisted in a failed model , because the short-term gains were great and long-term losses were guaranteed by big institutions or governments and they still thought it was right .

The system has decoupled into two streams since WWII .
1.Institutional : military-industrial complex , where most blue-sky research now take place . But they do not publish , leading to a fracture of society .
2.The best of mediocre academics with a viable idea go private (eg Craig Venter , Black-Schole) . A leaching effect .

This has already happened in fields like cryptology . British civil servants developed the basis of RSH encryption about a decade before the commercial model .

Both of these streams follow a budget-approach for allocating resources .
See "Fuehrer Prinzip:
Originality decreases .

Now you see why there has been no paradigm shift since Godel .
The system has been shoving inconvenient items under the carpet .
The resultant paradigm shift will be more like a revolutionary explosion . Sociological elements will be involved .


Appendix A.
See discussion below .
Financial Crisis 4April 2009
Andre Willers
4 Apr 2009

"A trillion here , a trillion there . Pretty soon we'll be talking real money ."
Or any money at all .

Post-Monetarism .
Money's only purpose is to serve as a one-to-one counter for real wealth .
Real wealth is measured according to the criteria set out in "Financial Crisis 31 Jan 2009"
It is to satisfy the human needs , weighted according to the Maslow hierarchy .
1.Air to breathe
2.Water to drink
3.Food to eat

Deflation .
This happens when real wealth increases faster than the growth of the monetary system .

This has been of real concern just before the present crisis .
In fact , it is the present crisis .

The system hunts for stability by creating money in futures .
It creates money by discounting future earnings .
The Central Banks are not creating money fast enough to keep up with the accounting demand .

Literally billions of people are hauling themselves up by the their bootstraps . Creating enormous wealth . The number of dollars , euros , yuan , etc in circulation is not sufficient to reflect the wealth . But the governments concerned try to limit the creation of new money , under outdated theories .
The system promptly bubbles up in futures , which are inherently more unstable than a currency .

Historical examples :
There are many . I will mention two :

1.British Empire circa 1880
A gold based trading empire in an industrial revolution created wealth faster than the discovery of new gold , until the South African goldfields . This created an explosion of wealth .

2.The 1929 crash .
Post-WWI created new wealth , but the monetary system did not keep pace . A bubble in futures (stock exchange) followed . In the ensuing collapse , wealth-creation was decreased . War , in other words .
But the system enforced balance .

And for now ?
The fear is that inflation might follow the creation of trillions of dollars .
The real problem is that they are too modest .

The point is that the excesses of futures transactions reflect a real shortage of money .
The system needs and will need a continuous creation of money just to keep up with the demand in real-wealth creation .

Look at the scale . The world economy is about 100 trillion a year . Wealth creation is about 10% per year . This can be summed , even for the last 10 years this gives a demand for money of about 100 trillion dollars . The money creation systems cannot keep up .

Can you see why we are talking about post-monetarism ?
Any conceivable command-and-control mechanism cannot hold .
It will , and has , fractured .

An example :
See "Negative pressure : an important update"
If this technology is patented through the Danish embassy in Second Life , future income streams are irrevocably fractured . Linden dollars will become one of the hardest currencies on the planet .

How does this affect you right now ?
If you have any exposure to hedge-funds or futures , get out now . Immediately .
As far as I can see , the funds have been given an extraordinarily wide leeway , but they still have been using short-selling to panic the sheep .
I estimate their exposure to be about 10 trillion on the positive side . This will be dumped into the Market as the new measures come into effect .

The day of the unbridled hedge-fund , like the cheap car , is over .

After that , roughly 20 trillion a year for 5 years will have to be created just to wipe out the back-log .

But in the meantime , wealth-creation will be proceeding at an exponential pace .

Money will become increasingly fractured and meaningless .
New ways of accounting will develop .
I draw your attention to Denise Schmandt-Besserat "How writing came about" (ISBN 13 978 0 292 77704 0 .
She shows conclusively that writing developed out of accounting practices over a period of 4 000 years .

Similarly , new accounting practices for fractured systems will need new descriptive terms .

And so it goes .


Monday, May 10, 2010

Tarot II

Tarot II
Andre Willers
10 May 2010

See "The inside of Zero"
You need 26 dimensions to describe a non-rotating ArithI system .
See "NewTools-Reserves" for the argument that any reserve should be 1/3 .

Tarot =26*3=78 . The minimum sufficient necessary . The alphabet .

With rotations you need minimum sufficient 2x26=52 .

The rotations at minimum necessary should be through 4 dimensions . 3 Space and one time at a minimum necessary sufficient . These are the ArithII dimensions , and are completely specified by the rotations .Notice that they are subsumed by the 26*3 dimensions above .

This gives 52+4=56 , the number of minor arcana .

We know we only need 78 . So the remainder must be 22 .

So we have
26+26 = 52 (min necessary suff through dim rotations for ArithI systems)
4= dimensions needed for rotation (see 4colour theorem)
78 = 26x3 The minimum necessary sufficient for any set of dimensions .
The remainder is 78 – (52+4) = 22 dimensions for infinite feedback . Quite remarkable .

Note that 52/78 = 0.66666 . The reserve (remainder 1/3) is then the indeterminate element .

The major Arcana .is then Major . Not what I expected . 1/3 of the data in the system is in the Major Arcana . Make of it what you will .

A bit further on , you will be a really good poker player .


Friday, May 07, 2010


Andre Willers
7 May 2010
The latest from the Neanderthal Genome project is that genetical mixing with humans did occur as late as 45 000 to 50 000 years before present. Humans and neanderthals could interbreed .And recently .
See "Death of the Neanderthal"
The interbreeding occurred outside of Africa , in Europe and middle Asia .
To be picked up on genetic evidence after such a remove , it had to be on a big scale .

What does this mean ?
Neanderthals were heavily cold-adapted . Big noses , furry , big torsos with relatively short arms and legs .
They also smelled differently (MHC complex)
They were also significantly smarter (bigger cranial size)
From the ripple effects , they were also severely sociopathic . Which is why they lost against the humans .

But the hybrids were a different story . We call them the Nordic types .Stunted neanderthals .

They did not lose . They simply got outbred .
As I said , their descendants were outstanding heavy cavalry .

My only surprise is that Anatolian Sheepdogs are not more prevalent in nordic countries . They really like the smell of neanderthals . Human dogs are inclined to attack neanderthal hybrids .

And here I thought I was a Mongol .



Tarot .
Andre Willers
7 May 2010

Tarot is a finite representation of complexity to up Beth(4) level .

1.Can infinite manipulations be represented by finite rules?
Yes . Done all the time with the finite rules of differentiation and integration in mathematics.
Postulate an infinity of delineated entities interacting . Two varieties of interactions can be found : Euler (ie infinitesimal with e as basis . Newtonian or Einsteinian systems)
or Fibonacci , (a finite change interaction . Also known as Quantum systems).
Both self-generate finite rules for infinite processes .
These finite rules are known as archetypes .
And there are a finite number of them . And we can enumerate them .
Also known as the Power Law . Infinite feedback systems of delineated entities self-combine to form hierarchical systems below Beth(4) levels .
See "AI"
Quantum systems , by definition , can only be enumerated in qubits .
An Image to illustrate this :
Imagine a hologram of n dimensions sliced by a plane . The plane is a computer screen or your 2-dimensional mental screen .
Past Beth(4) , the mind is acting in it's native mode , which is quantum mode .
The n-tuple entendre is standard for information transfer .
Information bleed-through from quantum systems leads to a finite number of rules .
Sigh . I cannot make it simpler than this .
Why there are 40+16=56 minor cards I have discussed before . It is intimately tied to ArithI and prime numbers .
Why there are only 22 major arcana cards to handle the rest of the infinite feedback systems up to Beth(4) levels I will have to think about . At the moment , I simply do not know why there are so few . But there it is .
See "Betablockers and Trauma memory"
Tarot cards represent a finite (less than 100) images's and procedures of infinite processes below native quantum processing .
Happy hunting!


Andre Willers
5 May 2010

"It takes two to Tango" 20th Century song

Discussion :
We sneak up on it by examining unlikely combinations .
Like Substitution Chess , this develops a deeper insight into the board .

Given N nations , there are a possible N*(N-1)/2 possible conflicts .
The upper boundary of all possible number of combinations of alliances is 2^N
The present number of nations on Terra is about 200 . So we have a potential 19 900 conflicts .

The War Algorithm :
1.Choose any two nations at random (eg from an atlas)
2.Work out a scenario where these two would go to war .
4.That’s it .

Some historically unlikely conflicts .(Reason in brackets)
1.USA vs Granada (morale)
2.USA vs Vietnam (greed of US Military-Industrial complex)
3.Paraguay vs Argentina (pride)
4.UK vs Argentina (Falklands I) (election of Thatcher)
5.Cuba vs RSA (internal stability)

As you can see from these very few examples , we can learn more about the reasons for war by examining the forcing of war between low-probability combatants and looking at the factors .

Illustration :
Please create credible scenario's where there would be war between the nations in the list that follows:

1.Lesotho vs Switzerland .
2.Chad vs Peru.
3.Iceland vs Turkey
4.Kazakhstan vs New Zealand .
5.Nepal vs Chile
6.Japan vs Jamaica.
7.Samoa vs Greenland

I would have to think about these myself . But notice how it enhances your insight .
And there are 19 900-7 = 19 893 remaining . Have fun .

World wars:
N gets restricted to 3 : For , Against and Neutral . This has been the pattern in WWI and WWII .

Civil wars :
These arise , by definition , from failed states . The fracture lines are usually ethnic (eg Yugoslavia , Africa) . The center cannot hold , usually due to corruption . External forces like arms dealers stimulate conflict . But there are also scarce minerals .

RSA and Chrome :
Chrome is absolutely essential to low-weight turbines and chemical reactor vessels .
(ie tanks , fighters , explosives)
RSA and Zimbabwe are the largest available deposits (coming from the old Vredefoort impact) . There are smaller deposits in Kazakhstan and Sweden (Why Sweden could remain neutral in WWII . Hitler , quite correctly , blocked the production of Me262 jet fighters in 1940 . The severe shortage of chrome meant that one fighter was about the same as a ton of explosives . If he needed fighters like the Me262 , the war would have already been lost .)

The weakness of the central RSA government has encouraged adventurism in both China and the USA . They are encouraging the secession of the northern provinces where these deposits lie via surrogates like Zimbabwe and Venezuala . I presume that Cuba will be roped in eventually , as they have had a long history of interfering in African affairs (courtesy of Che Guavara)

In their scenarios , they have already written RSA off as a failed state , and would rather squabble like vultures with each other over the chrome deposits . The rest (platinum , manganese , diamonds , remains of gold) are not strategically necessary and will go to fund the civil war between the various provinces . Something like Somalia or Sudan .

But how failed is it?
Let us look at the numbers .
The three large private security firms have about 180 000 members , based on the old SADF forces .(Like Buffalo , 32 , etc) . The SAPS has about 200 000 members , of various effectiveness . The SANDF has about 80 000 members , of about zero effectiveness . The old Commando and police reservists are still on the books , but ,frankly , they were useless even in the Apartheid era . Poorly trained and even more poorly disciplined drunken militia . Licensed bullies .

The memes:
The main elements of the RSA government comprises the Zulus and Whites(Afrikaners) . Both are very aggressive .

An armed incursion will come to an abrupt end (Cf Jamieson)
What will happen eventually is a South African Empire , as the energies are channelled outward .And a Napoleon equivalent is waiting in the wings .

Plus la change.