Thursday, March 31, 2011

Multiple Universes .

Universes
Andre Willers
31 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
Introducing magnetic monopoles into Calabi-Yau manifolds leads to a drastic simplification of universe-interactions .

Discussion :
Background :
See

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Universum" Nov 2006
The importance of delineation .

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "P vs NP" Feb 2011
A simpler , computational recipe can always be found .

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Topos 4" Sep 2007
Arith I discussed . Relevance to string theory.

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "The inside of zero" Aug 2009
Arith I discussed . Relevance to string theory.

"Special Theory of Relativity ."
Magnetism is directly related to charge movement and a limited speed of light

Detail :

Inflation Trigger :

1.Observe a little bubble of space-time shortly after the big bang . Introduce a magnetic monopole , in two ways .
1.1 Endogenously : conservation laws intact . No problem.
1.2 Exogenously (from Brane , ie other universes with magnetic monopoles)
The conservation laws can only remain intact if there is
1.2.1 A huge surge of charge-movement (ie current)
1.2.2 or a compensatory stretching of space-time (ie inflation) ,
1.2.3 or both (ie inflation and patterned asymmetries in the energy-matter distribution)

This last (1.2.3) is what is observed in our universe (Cobe observations)

Each large universe thus must have at least one magnetic monopole .
But , can it have more ?

Multiple Universes :
I strongly suspect that only magnetic monopole per universe can exist .

Examine a universe with a magnetic monopole of polarity (+1) .
Introduce :
1.A new magnetic monopole of polarity (+1) gets kicked into a brane neigbour , either inducing a new universe or a cascade .
2.A new magnetic monopole of polarity (-1) destroys the universe into a primordial big bang .
3.Many different magnetic monopoles of polarity (+-1) enter a universe , but a limited lightspeed means that they never cancel out .
A violent universe , relative to itself . But with large pockets of dynamic stability where intelligent life can form

It is also very much simpler . See "P vs NP" above .

Calabi-Yau Branes .
These geometries can be drastically simplified by allowing large numbers of interactions via messenger magnetic monopoles .
Note the analogy with protein foldings . If it only magnetic monopoles determining foldings , brane foldings should be a snap .
I have a sneaking suspicion that it is not that simple , but it is a start .

All sorts of yummy things.
Like , how to entice or seduce magnetic monopoles from nearby branes ,
Especially in coupled pairs . A Very Large , controllable energy source .
How to buffer your universe .(Defense)

An elegant system .

My compliments to God .

Andre .

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Upper-Ear Plugs

Upper-Ear Plugs
Andre Willers
28 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
A simple paper plug above the earholes has remarkable effects as far as mood , blood-pressure and sound-discrimination is concerned .
Try it . This really works .

Discussion :

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Click Baby" Mar 2011

I am not a Click-speaker , yet the effect before–and-after of inserting a wadded-up little ball of toilet paper in the folds of the ear just above earhole was dramatic .
Actual sound discrimination was noticeably enhanced . The music sounded sharper . Individual notes and melodies were much easier to hear and follow .
Much sharper . Try it .

What is going on ?
I can only surmise that Click perception is still being perceived by normal ears ,
but not clearly . The frequencies will still be the same as in sub-vocals . So , recordings will still have them . Even instrumentals . Humans will perceive music without the click-effects as flat but sharp .
Poor perception of Click mushes up the signals to the brain .

I am doing this now , inserting and pulling out little wads of toilet paper out of the earfold just above , but not in the earhole . The effect is remarkable .
Not only music perception , but mood and blood-pressure .

Fight-or-Flight tension
I think that the continual dissonance between the background sound and the click sound creates a Fight-or-Flight tension in the nervous system .
Blocking the system with lower information density (blocking the click system in normal humans) will then drop the tension , increase brain-sound discrimination as more neural assets are allocated , and decrease blood pressure .

Drawback :
As usual , there is a negative . The Click mechanism is used by the mind as a sort of semi-random generator for creativity .
So , don't use it continually .

Click Speakers
An upper-ear plug would be essential for them .
Also for other humans , indicating that they are not listening in on sub-vocal communications .

Sports
Ordinary human sport activity would be enhanced by an upper-ear plug .
For the same reason that music sounds sharper .
Especially sports with "twack" sounds .
Focus is sharper .

Blood pressure
Think inverse rousing music . Not just calming , but super-calming . A speaker that transmits the inverse sound-wave to the upper ear . Like the sound nullifiers now commercially available . Watch out for hypotension .

Schizophrenics and others who hear voices :
Many voices will be blocked . Some feedback loops might be broken .

Combat .
Most of the Shock and Awe systems are through the Click system in the upper ear .
All that Kai! Shouts can be rendered meaningless by an upper-ear plug .

Training and PTSD
I have noticed that the system trains extremely fast . 2-3 iterations .
Un-training in PTSD situations might be just as fast .
It is worth a try
A simple aural stimulus , with a upper-ear block would very possibly work quickly .
The dichotomy between the aural and the click system should be sufficient to disrupt the feedback loop of the PTSD .

This is actually quite beautiful .
That one such simple intervention can have so many beneficial effects .

Andre

Click Baby .

Click Baby
Andre Willers
27 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
A potential click-speaker (usually left double-earlobe) needs extra development phases .

Discussion
The genetic package is extreme richness in mirror-neuron networks , especially in the language centers of the brain , as well as the sensory apparatus (click perception)

Talents :
Language , mathematics (nearly equally) and music .

Dangers :
If the extra mirror neuronal networks are not soaked up by early usage (ie apoptosis of non-used linkages) , inappropriate linkages and sub-mentalities form . The system tries to survive by creating loops of phantom messages , preventing apoptosis .
(This is a purely neuron-level , Darwinnian activity)

For a click-speaker , Asperger's is a big danger below age 7 (my estimate: might be incorrect) .
Exaggerated sensitivity (neuroticism) is also possible .
Certain types of Obsessive–Compulsive behaviour will always be a danger .
Especially regarding mathematics and music , but not language .

Language , by definition , enforces multiple, rapid interaction with other people . Note the rapid . It is essential .
The complexity of language at baby stage is sufficient to soak up the brain-capability .
The more languages the better .

Training the Click-speaker .
From the above arguments , emphasis should be placed on languages , concomitant with hearing skills . Musical training will be subsumed into hearing skills .

The steps :

1.Train in sign language as early as possible .. Google "sign language babies" . Commercial services are available worldwide .
The timing needs some research .
Click speakers would not only start off richer in mirror-neuron networks , but keep on growing them long after norms (part of the package)
Prevention of bad linkages should then start as early as possible , but not pushed past capability as it develops .

2.Sound-training :
Percussion initially ,(drum , zylophone , vibraphone , flute ,etc) accompanied by tunes , but in a ratio of 1 to 2 to time spent on languages .

3.San language .
The only click language available at the moment.
Hear and see
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKJ9mNRRYaY

4.Lesser click languages .
Xhosa , Zulu , etc .

5 . Sub-vocalization .

Quote :
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See
library.thinkquest.org/C008243F/san_language.htm
// this sign is used when writing San words with a click - similar to the sound made when urging a horse to move.
/ another click sound, like the ' tutting' sound made when expressing sympathy.
! a tongue click which has the sound of cork popping from a bottle.
# with one slash only, sounds like the sucking of a baby with tongue just behind the teeth.
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End Quote
Sub-vocalizations can be denoted by a sucking sound , like
# with one slash only, sounds like the sucking of a baby with tongue just behind the teeth.
Click speakers can hear this .
It is a sucking click-sound in the larynx , that click-speakers' system has evolved to hear .

Ignorant Click-speakers run a serious risk of being mis-diagnosed as mentally ill .
"They hear voices , don't they ?" So they do .

Irony :
Science Fiction stories told of Telepaths persecuted because they could hear thoughts
Actual , click-telepaths were persecuted because they could never mature

Without training , and knowledge , a major advantage turns into despair .

It would be interesting to run click-perception tests on the inhabitants of the world's asylums . Some can still be rehabilitated .

Matriarchal return .
If , as speculated in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "High Matriarchs" Mar 2011
human genomes are expressing Click-speakers with increasing frequency , we would expect a corresponding rise in asylum inmates . Until the inmates become so numerous they vote themselves into power . A Nietszchean paradigm shift .

Are you nuts , or can you just hear better ?

Click-plugs on the upper ear lobe , anyone ?

Andre .

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Jazz III : Inverse Chopsticks .

Jazz III : Inverse Chopsticks
Andre Willers
24 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
Four-Mallet Vibraphone is Inverse chopsticks for two hands .

Discussion :
The Vibraphone
No , not a call-girl accessory .
It is a 20th century percussion instrument , mostly used in jazz .
( See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vibraphone )

Think a desktop percussion organ . The resonator tubes are variably closed at the top end by rotating disks , driven by electric motors at varying speeds .This gives a large range of resonances .

Think xylophone , but with a very large range .

Chopsticks:
Chopsticks eating requires one hand co-ordinating two long levers to pick up food

Four-Mallet Vibraphone is two mallet levers per hand hitting different keys under control and in tune . The mallets hit different keys .
Inverse chopsticks , indeed .

Theoretically , 8 mallet playing is possible (one mallet between each finger ) . It
should not even be too difficult for humans , and a snap for a click-speaker .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "The Squat and the Wobble" Oct 2004 et al
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Human Nails" Aug 2007 et al
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Music and the Singularity" Nov 2008
See "Click" articles .

Organ speculation :
What if we turn an organ in a large cathedral into a vibraphone?
It should be easy .
It would really shake your brain .
This would really be something .

Click-speakers :
A decent vibraphone is a must in training .
Some nerve-connections will not form without the necessary stimulation .

Sports :
Sports with "twacking" sounds , like tennis , golf , hockey , boxing , karate , etc .
Players will benefit about 10% - 15% by playing a vibraphone .

Theoretical background : Memristors:
A March Newscientist has an article describing experiments that show that sweat follicules in the human act like variable resistors to conductance , resulting in a net effect of a memristor . A system that learns at skin level , long before any nerve impulse even reaches the notochord .
Air-pressure differential normally would have little effect on a sweat-follicle .But a loud , abrupt sound will . The system notices and trains . The result is fed directly into the muscular system , bypassing the whole CNS .

Because the whole skin system acts as a memristor , it can be sensitized .
So , training can allow exaggerated click sounds to effect sensitizing skin -> muscle reactions.
Training and extremely fast reactions on scales not possible before can be done .
At cellular level .

A 100 meter dash athlete can train with exaggerated sounds to sensitize an extremely fast skin-sound -> muscle reaction , then utilize it by Clicking tongue or teeth

Normal training :
Just exaggerate and shorten the sounds using a sensor and a speaker .
Train as normal .
Relative performance will improve dramatically , until everybody else catches on .

Click-speaker training :
Vibraphones are expensive ($400 - $15 000)

How to make a less-expensive , more effective Water-vibraphone :
1.Get a cheap xylophone
2.Fix resonating PVC pipes below each resonating strip(Bottom of pipe sealed)
Longest pipes below longest xylophone strips . It need not be flush .
3.Stick in small plastic pipe at the top to allow water to be added . The water level will change the resonance of the pipe .
4.The same pipe can be stuck down further to siphon out unwanted water .
5. Let her rip with the hammers and adjust water levels where heard necessary .
The brain , ear and hands will compensate . The important thing is to have sharp clicks and variable resonances .
6. Also , it is suitably messy for humans of varying ages . Great fun !

Deoderants :
Sportspersons should under no circumstances use deodorants that operate by short-circuiting the sweat-follicle mechanism (ie aluminium , silver particles, etc ) .
This will screw up their reaction speeds and coordination .
"Oh dearie , off form are we ? "

The inverse is possible .
A spray that enhances the memristor effect .
"I may smell like a goat , but it is a Champion Goat !"


And all that Jazz .
Andre .

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Jazz II.

Jazz II
Andre Willers
22 Mar 2011

Synopsis:

Cultures are perfusing via music .

Discussion:

Before 1020 AD all music was freeform . There was no generally accepted notation .
Pupils learned by listening and playing .

Then stave notation was developed from the abacus in the 11 the century AD.
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Music Notation and Abacus" Sep 2010
(Repeated in Appendix A for your convenience , and the glorification of Guido of Arezzo .)

Music became repetitive on demand . The only creative licence allowed was for the composer , under strict control of the politicians (nobility , patrons).

Certain composers achieved staggering reputations , because they were the only ones allowed to innovate . Their music was replicated by printing press , orchestras , conductors and arrangers . The whole bureaucratic panoply . (Beethoven , etc)

Meanwhile , back at the farm , the serfs were generating new tunes . The most successful ones got replicated by word of tune .

Remember , all humans can hear and compose in their heads .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "The Squat and the Wobble" Oct 2004
Rhythm is programmed literally into the fingertips .

Jazz is where the two worlds collide and fuse .
Formalism with individual creativeness .
Repetitiveness with room .

The division of 1020 AD and fusion after 1800 AD created enormous energies and vigour .

Light Jazz
Composers went out and listened to Eastern European folk music , teased out the melodies and synthesized them into opera's and light classical music .
Liszt (Hungarian Rhapsodies) , Verdi (all) , Bizet (Carmen) etc .
These were Jazz artists .And suitably reviled in their time .

Later , in the 1900's , other cultures fused in .
First African , because of the large African-American population in the US.
Classical jazz . Jazz as we know it.

Other cultures like Chinese , Japanese , Cambodian , Indian , Laotian , Australian , etc
are beginning to transfuse in .

The Algorithm
The problem is to keep enough of the old to be recognizable , and enough of the new to give that "Aha" feeling .

Luckily , we know how to calculate that ratio fairly exactly .
It is our old friend ,
Reserves , as found in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "NewTools : Reserves" Nov 2008 .

The old tune has to retain 1/3 of it's characteristics . The artist can then add on 2/3 's , while retaining identity .

Really great artists can change the first 1/3 or portions of it .
Portions measured in 1/3 of 1/3 of 1/3 to n'th 1/3 .

The Jazz of Asian and Western and African music is inevitable . It sounds delicious .

All that Jazz!

Andre
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Appendix A
Music Notation and the Abacus
Andre Willers
15 Sep 2010

"No stave , no symphony ." Christopher Page
www.historytoday.com/music

Synopsis :
The synthesis of music with the abacus by Guido of Arezzo (circa 1010 AD) led to the Stave Musical notation . This opened up entire new ecologies of music composition and reproduction . Architecture and religious memes were severely affected .

Discussion :

1.History :
Without a musical notation , large groups of humans are limited to chorus effects or individual artistes . Complex coordination is not possible .
Examples are the Greek theatrical chorus , any chorus like work chantys , anthems ,etc .

This was the state of play around 753 AD , when Pippin of France and Pope Stephen II signed a "pacis foedera" at Pippin's Farm Palace near Ponthion in the Champagne . A mutual aid pact .

Included in this deal (probably much against his will ) was Simeon (of Greek or Syrian descent) , who was second in charge of the Roman Schola Cantorum .
(Nobody remembers the name of number one . The dangers of academic politics .)
The Gregorian Chant (Frank-Roman chant) rose from Simeon's teachings .

Fast forward to the early 11th Century AD .
The climate and civilization had improved . Populations exploded . Useless younger sons were sent off to the capital to get some polish and out of underfoot . Many of them ended up in the Choir , to the music-master's despair .
This person was Guido of Arezzo .
At first , he could only teach them by exposing them to all the thousands of tunes that had accumulated and requiring them to memorize them .

His students had no talent , lots of money and an aristocratic hauteur , but he had to deliver people who could sing in tolerable harmony . The usual academician's nightmare .

But many of them came from commercial backgrounds , and were intimately familiar with the Abacus . Some of them started using the positions of the counters on the abacus to represent tunes as an aide-memoire .

Guido gratefully seized on this . To give him his due , he never claimed that he invented the notation , only that it gave his students more time for " prayer , for the recitations of Psalms , for nocturnal vigils and other duties they can perform cum puritate" .("Epistola ad Michahelem" ) . Right .

It was a communal academic effort , and their academic master seems to have been a fairly nice guy in not grabbing all the glory for himself (as would happen today) .

The signature is that there is no fixed date . (Processes never have fixed dates , but glory-hounds always have.)

What happened then ?
His students spread all over Europe , returning to their roles as minor aristocracy , but still remembering having being part of something grand and world-changing . Symphonies and Orchestras flowed out of this . Also Cathedrals and Opera houses .
A tradition of Culture .
Still lasting to this day .
Not bad .

Printing and Composers :
There was an insatiable demand for new tunes . These could be printed . The bread and butter of printing houses and composers . The underlying demand that made moveable-type printing profitable .

New Instruments :
This led to demand for new instruments like the clavier .

Cathedrals:
The explosion of cathedral building was a direct result of heavenly choirs in huge acoustic environments . The choirs were only possible because of the musical accompaniment . And this was only possible because they read the music .

But notice the role of the dirigent . Rieux , von Karajan and backward to Guido of Arezzo .

Opera Houses:
Culture with a vengeance .

The concept of Heaven :
Playing the harp in concert with the chorus .
I presume the electric-guitarist playing "Bad moon arising" must be a Protestant .

The Algorithms :
1.Music-to–Abacus .
The abacus would be decimal , with Roman subsections on V . Hence the 5 staves on left and right .Call the Set of Rules Alg(M,A)
A musical tune can be expressed as a single number by using the abacus number algorithm . (Eg 67387665) (ie treating the notes on the bars as numbers )
Cf Godel numbers .

2.The inverse:
Abacus-to-Music.
This is a typical trapdoor function .
A single number cannot easily be translated back into a tune . But it is handy for indexing purposes . Hence the later habit of calling new compositions by number .

Generating new tunes:
Generate a set of numbers from popular tunes from the Set of Rules Alg(M,A).
Inverse it with a Genetic algorithm to give appealing tunes .
Add a small spice of random mutation , and the we have new tunes of life .

Andre

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Sunday, March 20, 2011

Jazz.

Jazz
Andre Willers
21 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
An interesting Hegelian synthesis .

Discussion :

The Thesis :
Any Empire requires repetitive music on demand .
(Wagner)

The Anti-thesis :
Music , harmony and song is deeply integrated into every human on an individual basis .
(Slave music)

Synthesis :
Popularity forces repetitiveness . Ease of replication enhances it .

Jazz :
The fusion .

Semi-classical composers teased out the repetitive elements out of Folk-music and patented it . Liszt etc .

Jazz musicians also tease it out , but retain individual sub-themes .

That's it .
I am not going to spell it out more .

Listen to it yourself .

Andre

Friday, March 18, 2011

High Matriarchs.

High Matriarchs .
Andre Willers
19 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
Women with a complex chromosome structure on the X-chromosome that involves High Emotional Quotient , High Intelligence Quotient , the ability to hear Click and thus sub-vocalizations in humans . They require training .

Discussion :
1, High Emotional Quotient
This requires many mirror-neuron networks to mimic other people's responses . A fine balance at the edge of Aspergers .
2, High Intelligence Quotient : just a lot of brain capacity with a lot of mirror networks .
3. Ability to hear !Click .
This is genetically determined . Not only a double left-earlobe , but changes in Broca's region and nerves in between ear and Broca's region .
The top part of the double earlobe focuses the Click sounds .

4. Sub-Vocalizations .
This can be heard by a Click speaker . Of course , training makes it more effective .
The movement of the larynx and muscles in it make sucking Click sounds .

The genome complex :
The ability to hear Click probably means more mirror networks , hence High Emotional and Intelligence Quotient . Learning to hear sub-vocalizations reliably would require training . But even naïve talent would give a devastating advantage (akin to reading the opponent's mind)

So what happened to The High Matriarchs ?
This has been exhaustively discussed in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "The Origins of War and Peace" Apr 2007 and many subsequent posts .
Internecine warfare after the invention of Agriculture did them in .
Because the Click hearing adaptation was easily visible as a double left earlobe , this was targeted and nearly eradicated .

The Old Matriarchs , however , were mistresses of Genomic Cloud manipulation
They had 60 000 years to develop it .
Remember , with Click you can see inside a living cell . All you require is some magnification . And many rock crystals do exactly that .

Click microscopes . An interesting exercise .
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Genome Clouds" Mar 2011

So , when they were losing , they bred some the Click and Matriarch genes to surface under certain Histone conditions . This is what is happening now .

I would love to know how many baby girls are born with double left-earlobes .
But , nobody is keeping track . As usual .

Why did they not dispense with males ?
I presume some of the wars were about that .
They certainly could induce parthenogenic processes , but whether they were aware of mini-meiosis is doubtful . The definition of Click microscopes could not go below cell-nucleus .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Mini-meiosis and Immortality" Mar 2011

So , they were stuck with males . After the invention of agriculture , competition increased and they bred males for aggression and upper-body strength . The rest is history for the last 10 000 years .

High Matriarchs and the Singularity .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Singularities" Feb 2011

The emergent trigger for the High Matriarch genes seems to be the deepening singularity . How ? I don't know . Rates of information flow is a reasonable guess .

This is not to establish dominance at remote remove , but to give their descendants a chance at a smooth transition into the singularity .

And , boy , are you going to need a wise , understanding and empathic mummy .

Andre

Nuclear Reactor Safety .

Nuclear Reactor Safety
Andre Willers
18 Feb 2011

Synopsis :
Coolant systems have been the culprit in all major accidents .
Some simple and fairly low-cost upgrading of older systems are explored.

Discussion :

The design flaw :

Instead of building the reactor around a coolant system , the coolant system was tacked on .
This only matters in severe disasters , as just seen in Japan . A Richter 9 quake , followed by a 10 m tsunami .

The Japanese Reactor Disaster:
The fission reactions were stopped by safety mechanisms .
But , a reactor cannot be switched off like a light . Residual heat still has to be removed . If the mechanism for that has been rendered inactive , and outside intervention made nearly impossible due to difficulty of access (rubble ,etc) , explosions due to hydrogen buildup occur .These scatter radioactive material , and further damage the plant infrastructure .
A slow-moving disaster . Even small interventions in the beginning will prevent major effects later .

The irony is that the coolant systems inside the containment vessel are still mostly intact . The containment vessels worked .
The operators simply cannot get meaningful amounts of coolant into them from the outside , as these have been rendered inoperative inside the 2-3 day timespan allowed .
There are no access points , power , pumps or water .

Optimal preventative option :
There are two stages :

1.Stage One : Multiply redundant , hardened coolant access points .
Add numerous , seriously hardened access points and channels to the existing plants. This can be done fairly easily at not too great a cost .
Use Gamers ("World of War" etc ,etc) to find the optimals . Virtual reality simulations with the most inventive minds on the planet should winkle out weak points .

2. Stage two : Strategic Emergency Depots
Use existing container format .
Placement : there should be one within one day's flying time of any reactor .
The depots should have
1. Self-contained, self-powered pumps in containers , capable of serial hookups and hookups to the reactor coolant systems as in Stage One above .
2. Fueled containers . These must be kept topped up .
3. Containers of coolant (water , usually)
4. Containers of medical supplies (radiation suits)
5. Containers of long-lasting food and water
6. Heavy earthmoving equipment rigged for air-lifting
7. Sufficient helicopters capable of lifting a loaded container .These would be a major expense , but they can be used for civilian purposes as long as a clear disaster protocol exists , and a rapid-reaction reserve is maintained .This will help to keep costs down and equipment up-to-date and immediately available.
8. Tsunami-resistant lifeboats . See point 8 below .

These can be used for any emergency .
This is a reserve for the civilization .
This can be calculated :
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Infinite Probes: Reserves" Nov 2008

JIT Strategy
Centralized Reserves like these can be used by companies to keep their JIT competitiveness , but still maintain the benefits of substantial reserves .

Some more innovative strategies :
1, Safe water on site . Nano-filters
Using sea-water as coolant in a reactor ruins it .
There are many nanofilters under development that could deliver high-through put filtering of heavily polluted water .

2, Refrigerate the shebang .
If access is possible , just hook up as many containers of air-conditioners as it takes .

3.Containment Penetrators
The containment vessel can be controllably penetrated by variants of military bunker-busting technology , followed by a quick channeling of the vent .
Rather extreme , but comforting to have around .

4. Entropy Containment
The entire thing can be stopped dead at any point by using Negative Kelvin Systems .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Negative Kelvin Update" Feb 2011
But this is a laboratory curiosity at the moment . (Like the electric motor was in Maxwell's days .) Enormous potential , though .

6, Tsunami Resistant Lifeboats
Most tsunami victims die of blunt-force trauma by floating debris , then drown after being knocked unconscious .
Even with 30 minutes warning , they could not get to safety in time .

Using present technology , a low-cost , inflatable , self-erecting and rigidizing lifeboat sufficient to protect humans against low-impact debris can be manufactured .
(Issue a competition for the best design)

These are then airdropped (with suitable lurid colours, sirens ,transponders ,etc) by the Rapid Reaction choppers on areas previously determined to be at high risk from a tsunami at any specified location .

They should be kept in airports near danger zones , droppable by chopper or aircraft .

My estimate is that tsunami deaths can be decreased at least ten times .

Unified Disaster Response .
The Act establishing the Reactor Disaster Management and Tsunami disaster Management would necessitate an overarching National Unified Disaster Response .
Good luck with this .
FEMA in the US is nothing to write home about .


Get your act together .
Death is the most critical of audiences .

Andre.

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Thursday, March 17, 2011

Genome Clouds .

Genome Clouds
Andre Willers
17 Mar 2011

"Trailing clouds of glory do we come" Wordsworth .

Synopsis:
An organism can be defined by clouds of the real and virtual genomes of the organism and of all it's sub-organisms . Computation of genomic structures are greatly enhanced by using proven quantum-like techniques .

Discussion :
As DNA sequencing grows faster , cheaper and smaller , we will within 20 years approach Drexler's idea of a sequencer , compiler and computer much smaller than a cell inside each and every cell .

Even now , we are drowning in data . Billions of DNA pairs , millions of organisms , not to mention protein foldings and the Histone code .

What is a poor limited mind to do ?
Why , the normal refuge of the uncertain : Statistics , Quantum Mechanics and Robots.

Take the Human Organism as reference .
This consists of the Human Genome (more or less known) , Histone Code (very little known) ,
In it's fractal nature , there are sub-systems :
These consist of the Mitochondria , gut bacteria, immune system , diseases , viruses , etc , each with their associated Histone Code and metacontrols where applicable .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Phene System II" Feb 2011

Many of these sub-systems have bigger genomes than humans .
Many switch roles depending on various triggers .

Add Virtual Genomes
Virtual copies in computers or cellular high-risk cancer labs

Add influx of strangers via ingestion of food , air ,water , wounds etc .

These are all much easier to understand if seen as Clouds , instead of particles .
The same as Boyle's Gas Law is simple compared to doing it molecule by molecule .

Virtual Genomes
These will make things much easier , as pre-prepared positions are possible .
Evolution is highly conserved . The same bits and pieces keep on cropping up .
Real-time monitoring and steering become possible .
Why Mother Nature has those pesky , high-risk cancer labs where evolution is on fast-forward . She's one step ahead .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Prodigies , Primitives and Cancers" 9 May 2007


Cloud Rules :
Reducing gigabytes of data to fairly simple Cloud Rules would be daunting task if not for two things :

1,Theoretically , it can be done .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "P vs NP " Feb 2011

2, Robotic systems .
2.1 See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "AI Update Jun 2009'
2.2 There is an article on Robot scientists in Jan 2011 ScientificAmerican , giving the state of published art .
Aberystwyth University in Wales is the leading center .

Pharmaceuticals
This process is ideal for large or small pharmaceutical companies , and , indeed , is already being used in this way .
Algorithm :
1, Shotgun sequence some new organisms
2, Add into cloud of known genomes .
3, Chase through Robot scientist.
4, Test

FDA approval now takes up such a long time that the maximal profit period of a new drug is eaten away . Leaks and clones happen . More money can be made by simply being there "Firstest with the mostest"

Gaia
The process is fractally upward as well .
With humans in the loop , Gaia will become aware , then self aware and then …
See previous posts on AI's .
A Planetary Cloud of genomes and virtual genomes .

Big Sister is not only watching you , but every cell in you and every bug in you .

Voyeurista's Ho !

Andre

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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Mini-meiosis and Immortality.

Mini-Meiosis and Immortality
Andre Willers
15 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
Stem-cells are created by mini-meiosis during the cytokineses phase of mitosis .
The triggers are zinc-finger proteins generated by gene Prdm9 .

Discussion :
Read NewScientist 12 Feb 2011 "Evolution's X factor" p33

Essentially , gene Prdm9 denotes and triggers hotspots for chromosome crossover during meiosis by producing zinc-finger proteins .

Crucially , mutations in an intact gene Prdm9 gene (13 letters) only changes the site of the crossover . It is thus immortal , and plays the role of a meta-control .

"Proteus" would be an equally correct name .

During mitosis , mini-meiosis is triggered by the presence of some control , probably zinc-finger proteins . A certain percentage of pluripotent cells are formed but with meiosis-type crossovers of chromosomes on the crossover hotspots as designated by gene Prdm9 . You see what a can of worms it is .

The pluripotent cells are then not copies , but daughters , and should be described as chimaera's .

This gives cells the vitality to compete .

Immortality :
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Ageing" Feb 2011

Engineering zinc-finger proteins to lock on to the Last TTAGGG telomere tag should do the trick . This should result in a pluripotent cell instead of a death .

Immortality of the moving-along sort .

Now you know as much as I do .

Long Life !

Andre

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Caffeine and Heart Attacks .

Caffeine and Heart Attacks.
Andre Willers
14 Mar 2011

Synopsis:
Humans with 1 out of 2 defective copies of the gene P450 A12 (CYP1A2) on chromosome 15 are at least 64 times more likely to have a heart attack . (It governs enzymes in the liver that breaks down caffeine)

Discussion :
Source: J. Craig Venter , "A life decoded" , ISBN 978-0-141-01441-8 , p132 .
Somebody who should know .

A study of 4 000 persons over a year of coffee drinking showed risk of heart attack between 4+cups a day and 1 cup a day was in a ratio of 64:1 . These persons included the mixture of genes .

A separate test on only persons with both fully functional genes showed a less than 1% chance with 4+ cups of coffee per day .

I presume that if you have two bad copies of the gene , extreme caffeine intolerance will result , as it cannot be metabolized but only excreted .Basically , you die .

So , the system is very sensitive (by a factor of 64) to the mutation of one gene .

How do you tell if you have only one functioning gene ?
Absence of habituation .
If coffee always hits you the same way or more , then your liver is not breaking down the caffeine fast enough to compensate for intake . You have one defective gene ,

Is this good or bad ?
There is some historical evidence that caffeine or some metabolite competes with the CCR5 receptor site . This is the real baddy receptor site , where nasties like Black Death , smallpox , some flu's, etc enter the cell .
There was then strong positive selection for increasing caffeine tolerance , as it gave some protection against infectious diseases (apart from boiling the water)

Note the major usage of caffeine by doctors . This is usually ascribed to be kept alert , but it actually started as a fairly effective anti-infective agent .

It definitively kept them alert , mainly by keeping them alive .
As usual , humans got it the wrong way around .

The race between a heart attack and disease .
Having one defective gene means that caffeine stays around longer , but it causes heart problems if overindulged .

As usual with humans , the overindulgence won and selection heavily favoured two functional genes . The "more is better" school .

This results in all those huge coffees you get in Starbucks .
Also that doctors and other major caffeine imbibers will have more normal heart attacks , as some of them will still have one defective gene .

Historical notes :
Note the small old Chinese Tea-cups . (A cup of tea has about half the caffeine content of a cup of coffee .)
Or the original Turkish or Arabic cups .
All are small , because most people only had genes to slowly break down the caffeine .
Calculate optimals by using the 64 ratio .

If you have only one functioning gene.
Don't despair .
If you are partially caffeine intolerant , don't despair . Just drink less .
The effect , both stimulation and infection control is nearly the same .

Half a cup (a demi-tasse) a day of coffee will do the same .In the morning is best (Why do think they made all those millions of demi-tasse cups ?)
Or two demi-tasse's of tea a day . Or 4 chinese cups . You get the drift .

Children :
Treat them as having only one functioning gene.But this places those with two fully functioning genes at greater risk of disease . So , sort them out as soon as possible . A genetic test is preferable , otherwise just watch their behaviour after giving them a cup or two of coffee .

Why does caffeine compete with access to CCR5 receptor site ?
The old Plant-Herbivore Wars .
Plants dependant on cultivators (ie humans) benefit from reduced human susceptibility to disease . Those plants flourished , because humans survived to care for them . And so we are off to the races .

Plants are cultivating humans , and humans are cultivating plants .
A mutual bonsai .

Give a dinosaur a flower .

Andre

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Inverse Fracking - Mackenzie Basin

Inverse Fracking – Mackenzie Basin
Andre Willers
14 Mar 2011

Synopsis:
Purify the system by drawing water out of the underlying salt-deposit .

Discussion :
Method:
1.Drill horizontal wells in the upper part of the salt deposit , with shafts at start and finish .
2.Fracture the horizontal wells , using frack technology .
3.Pump fresh water from finish shaft to start shaft . This will only be slightly brackish.
4.Sequester or irrigate under control .

How it works :
The salt-crystals around the cracks in the salt-layer caused by fracking , self-anneal , squeezing out the water sucked in by the process .. This used to go to the surface , via capillary action .

In Inverse Fracking , the water in the salt layer gets squeezed into the horizontal shaft , then pumped out in a stream . Fairly pure water at that .
Pure enough for irrigating fast-growing , salt resistant trees (like eucalyptus) . These can then be converted to biofuels to keep the process self-sustaining .

Surpluses can be used for cash crops . (You can even make a lot of money out of it.)
Careful management is required .
Ideal for Government-Free enterprise combinations .
A neat package .

Things could obviously be made more efficient by programming water .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Memory of Water" Feb 2011

I repeat the statement putting this technology (Inverse fracking and memory of water) in the public domain .

Legal statement :
I hereby place this (Inverse Fracking and Memory of water) in the open and public domain . It is not subject to any duties , fees , copyrights or any or all hindrances to entities to freely enjoy the fruits thereof .

The same process can be adapted to any type of pollution where layering occurs .
Eg coal , gold , etc .

Combined with nano-technology , even stubborn pollutants can be removed . At a profit , too .

Chernobyl lands could be rehabilitated , and profitably as well .

I can't help to wonder what inverse fracking will do to a mine-field . This has to be done experimentally .

Who does not want to be Green and Filthy Rich ?

Andre

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Japanese Economy post-quake

Japanese economy post Quake of March 11 2011
Andre Willers
14 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
There will be a short downturn , then an upturn to about 7% growthrate for at least 10 years . Expect major socio-economic changes .

Discussion :
Growthrates after the collapse of the property market in the 1990's remained low because :
1.The Japanese people were rich and in a comfort zone .
2.Structural problems in the economy could not be fixed because of voter inertia .

This is all about to change .

The destruction due to the quake is far less than the Japanese Reserves .

But the shock to the system will not die down , but escalate at least until 2013 .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Solar Storms" Mar 3 , 2011
Expect political instability of the same scale as recently seen in the Middle East .

The Japanese system has been kicked out an attractor basin of comfortable torpor into another , more active attractor basin .

Expect some interesting times in the Far East .
Some consequences :
1.Japanese military spending will increase sharply .
2.Demand for commodities will increase sharply .
3.R&D expenditure will increase sharply , especially Space Endeavours .
4.A search for a proper solution to the high ratio of elderly . Most likely tapping them as a source of Wisdom and Experience , using a Facebook type environment . Very lucrative and wealth-creating .
5.Competition with China to increase greatly , especially oil and gas .
6.This will raise the problem of Taiwan again .
7.Japanese emigration to fertile , more stable land areas to increase drastically , with government support . Australia could benefit tremendously , especially the MacKenzie Basin , which is in dire need of high-tech resuscitation .

All this will require funding .
Cashing in US bonds would be self-limiting , as it would depress the whole global economy . Some enterprising bank will make a fortune collaterising Japanese foreign assets for immediate expansion funds .

This is dedicated to the victims of the March 11 , 2011 earthquake and tsunami .

Their deaths will not have been in vain .

Andre
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Appendix A
Some background can be obtained at
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Solar Storms" Mar 3 , 2011
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Money" Oct , 2008
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com Various "Financial Crises" posts
Search for "Destruction of Money" arguments .

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Friday, March 11, 2011

Los Angelos Earthquake Warning .

Los Angelos Earthquake Warning.
Andre Willers
11 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
High probability of 8+ quake in LA within 9 months .
Preparation is vital
The western side of the Pacific Ring of Fire seems to becoming unzipped in a clockwise direction since 2004 due to 8+ quakes . Transmission of stresses can be expected in further clockwise direction to LA within 9 months .

Discussion
1. The sequence started in late 2004 with three northward-moving 8+ quakes in the South Pacific .
2. The next item was the Indonesian quake of Dec 2004 (9.1)
3. The next item was the Japanese quake of March , 11 2011 (8.9)

The Japanese tectonic community was expecting a major event .
Taking the Indonesian event as a major trigger , it took seven years for the stresses to transmit to a break-point along the Western Pacific Ring of Fire family of faults .

We can expect the same mechanism to operate clockwise over the north pole and down the Eastern Pacific Ring of Fire down to the San Andreas fault , which is similarly primed .

The only question is "How Long?"

The more complicated the fault systems between two points , the longer it will take to transmit sufficient force to trigger a slippage .

In the South Pacific-Indonesia(2004) , transmission took only 1-2 months due to single fault lines .

Indonesia-Japan took 7 years because of the very complicated fault systems surrounding the Japanese Islands (at least 3 major crustal faults)

The fault system over the pole and down the western America's is much simpler , and we can expect a corresponding shorter time .

We are talking months . Within nine months .
This is based on a reserve of a reserve of 7 years .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "NewTools:Infinite Probes" Nov 2008 , especially the error arguments .
This gives
1/3*1/3*(7*12) = 9 months .

Hawaii
Reports are already coming in of increased activity of Hawaii volcano's .
(23h00 Mar 11 , 2011)

Hawaii is in different system of tectonic activity .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Earthquakes and Volcanoes II" Feb 2010
This is due for some activity , but we can only hope it does not combine with the Japan quake and San Andreas in a Perfect Tectonic Storm .

Why are 8+ Quakes different ?
Because they result in earthquake swarms . The event is so energetic that it exacerbates stresses long distances away . The local stress might be relieved , but stresses thousands of kilometers away are intensified , causing what is known as earthquake storms or swarms .
Think "Small-world" network model .

Especially susceptible are faults already trembling on the brink of release .

I sincerely hope I am wrong .
But it would not hurt to get your house in order .

Andre

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Thursday, March 10, 2011

Foot-Long Pita

Foot Long Pita
Andre Willers
10 Mar 2011

Synopsis:
Healthy baking from the inside .

Discussion :
With thanks to Johan Willers .
The essential tool is a Paint Stripper heat gun that blows hot air at about 400 C .
This enables food to be baked from the inside .

On Amazon they sell for about US $15

Many can be set at varying temperatures .
A glorified , high temperature hair dryer .

Foot-Long Pita's
Roll the thin dough in a tube . Blow the 400 C air through until the dough , inflating it until it is crisp to taste . Fill with desired yummies .

The dough can be pre-prepared and the cooking takes seconds .
Ideal for fast food .

Health :
Acrylamides form from 120 C , peaks at 175 C and tapers off thereafter . At 400 C , only traces remain .

Monograms :
A simple stamp on the dough should ensure a visible monogram or picture .

Spiral Doughnuts .
With various fillings .

Monogrammed toasted sandwiches .
With extra cheese . Yum .
Monogram in blue cheese !

The perfect sausage roll :
Or sugar roll
Or cinnamon roll .
Stick the dough on the filling , roll , blast hot air through to bake .
Voila!

Mega-Macaroni .
Cook large macaroni's from the inside , then stuff them .

Macaroni Katyuska
Line them up and blast the hot air through .
The pasta should cook and absorb any liquid in the filling .
Yum!

Interesting experiment :
Many types of offal have tubes :
Lungs , intestines , kidneys , heart , giblets , etc .
These can then all be cooked from the inside .
The timing would need some experimentation .
If you think I am joking , watch the price of meat in the coming decade .
Why do you think the Chinese eat anything ?
They have been there before .

Dieting (weight) considerations :
I suspect (but cannot prove) that the very high temperatures in the dry-cooking process means that the material left over will not only be very crispy , but will take a lot of energy to break the bonds (ie digest) . This will be true down to intestinal molecular level . The stomach will not bother to break down foods that will yield a nett negative energy , unless it needs some elements in the food .

So , if you take a fairly good multi-vitamin and multi-mineral , you can eat foot-long pita's all day and lose weight . But watch the filling !

Low-carbohydrate
The same holds for carbohydrates , as long as there is no shortage of carbon .
Drink a soda .

The physics :
Chemical activity doubles with every 10 C rise in temperature . This means that even if the difference is only 400C-200C = 200C , it means a 2^20 fold increase in activity.
A very large number .

This means that the cooking takes place very quickly .
So , passes of the hot air should be short and layers to be cooked , thin .

Experimentation seems to be called for .

Floss-candy -> Floss-protein .
Proteins can be expanded to fit politicians' promises .

Something to get your teeth in .

Andre

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Zone Technology

Zone Technology
Andre Willers
10 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
Neuromagic Zone technology is now commercially available .
No sports- or academic person will be able to compete without it .

Discussion :

Commercial availability :
Costs about 1 700 pounds UK
See http://www.freerlogic.com/

Detailed discussion in Appendix A

Addendum to Appendix A:
An Exit strategy is needed :

The discussion in Appendix A is fairly comprehensive , but done before an actual piece of hardware was available . Ie , just theory .

Zone Addiction :

ADHD individuals .
Where there is a family history of Aspergers , ADHD might be an adaptation to counter it .
Zone addiction might then more easily occur .(See below)
Monitoring would be needed .

In general , do not spend more than 2-3 hours in the Zone .

Optimization :
Since long-term nerve potentiation is at most 10 minutes , optimum results should be obtained by a Zone episode of ten minutes , followed by a rest .
The rest period is unknown , since this apparatus was not available before .
Lacking experimental data , use the general 1/3 principle and rest for 2/3 : ie 20 minutes .
Snack on brainfood in the rest period .
If the rest-period is not used , unpredictable Zone-destabilization will occur .
(ie , loss of focus and form)

Nutritional supplements :
All this activity places a heavy strain the nuts-and-bolts of necessary molecules .
Eg essential fats , some vitamins and elements .
Strange urges for some foods will arise , especially fishy ones .

As for the Poor :
Watch "The Bold and the Beautiful" and scarf fatty snacks during the commercials . The effect will be about 67% the same .

Soapies make you smart !

Andre


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Appendix A
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com Feb 2009

NeuroMagic , The Zone , Sports and Exams.
Andre Willers
7 Feb 2009

NeuroMagic is a hot new science .
It is the fusion of NeuroScience and Stage Magic .
The exact neurological mechanisms of effective stage magic tricks are explored . The process is synergistic . Both sides benefit to an quite an extraordinary degree .

The Synergy :
Stage Magic exploits processes (flaws , weaknesses , or just the way it is done) in the perception and cognitive processes . It has a repertoire of tricks built up over thousands of years . Tried and tested in the real world .

Neuroscience explains them and suggests new approaches .

An explosion of applications is only now starting .

Sports.
"Watch the ball ! "
"Pay attention!"
"Concentrate!"
Heartfelt imprecations from generations of coaches .

But how do these mechanisms work ? More importantly for competitive sports , how to take advantage of them .

NeuroMagic manipulates the mechanics of the visual system , as well as the more important attention and concentration mechanisms at the neural level .

Examples
1.Mental lapses :
Change blindness , inattentional blindness , choice blindness .
The cognitive system is manipulated at a neural level .
2.Visual lapses
Curved and straight motions activate different neural systems at sub-retinal level and cognitive level .

The details can be found in the works of S Martinez-Conde , SL Macknik et al .
A good summary is in ScientificAmerican Dec 2008 p44 "Magic and the Brain" .
NewScientist has also run a good article .
See www.mindscience.org/magicsymposium

Misdirection in sport .
This old standby of stage magicians is allowed (feints) .

The Zone .
Being "In Form" .
Well known in sport . Usually described as a state of relaxed concentration .
The meta-feedback processes in the brain are confident that they can handle anything because the processes they monitor are functioning well .
You can be in the Zone and still get wiped . It is an internal state .
But it is fragile .
Neuromagic techniques will be aimed at usable techniques to induce , maintain and recover it , while disrupting the opponent's Zone .

Is the Zone delineated ?
Yes .
It is a whole mess of feedback-systems coming together in a system recognized internally by the meta-monitoring systems as distinct .
So , yes , you do wake up in the morning knowing that everything is tip-top .
But it varies .
If you don't , neuromagic is supposed to develop techniques to kick-back into the Zone-state .
If all else fails , try rebooting . Go back to sleep thinking positive thoughts . Waking up is a fairly random initiation process of feedback loops .
This is where being part of a Team helps . The team acts as a flywheel , kickstarting the process if possible .

Zone Collapse .
If you are in the Zone , and it is then collapsed , a whole host of feedback processes are initiated that reduces effectiveness drastically . This is a neurological effect . Like dropping a spanner in watch-gears . The player's game collapses .

Disrupting Teams .
This is possible by inducing false narratives .
Eg in soccer:
This is done using misdirection and visual-system cues to make a ball disappear and reappear somewhere else from the opposing player's viewpoint . This induces a false narrative , collapsing their Zone .

Building teams can and is being done using similar techniques ,
but on an ad hoc basis , without a deep neurological-level theoretical background .
A quantum-physicist would be handy . The Zone-state is very much like a fragile quantum state generated from a number of players .

Virtualities .
Does anybody train in SecondLife?
It seems the obvious mechanism .

It is not physical responses that need training , but mental ones . A virtuality is better than real life , because plays can be replicated exactly and repeatedly , identifying and correcting mistakes . Levels of difficulty can be adjusted . Opposing teams can be modeled using agents . Tie it to Wii .

It can even generate revenue . Fancy yourself playing against Rinaldo ?
For $100 you can play against his model avatar . For $10 000 you can train against/with him in a real training exercise in SecondLife . This might even be advisable , to add randomness to the training regimen .

In effect , a player can play the opponent repeatedly before the actual tournament .

Of course , both sides will be forced to do this . SecondLife tournaments will grow in importance . Maybe even old , obese , cocaine-addicted brilliant players will make a come-back . (Or their avatars will . )

Business Team Building
This can be done cheaply , interchanging same company or a competitor's personel .
Headhunters can employ it to get a dreamteam .

Concentration .
The techniques of concentration developed for sport are applicable to scholastic pursuits .

Exams .
The scholastic equivalent of the sports tournament .
There is definitely a Zone for writing exams (personal experience) .
When there is no hesitation . An optimal utilization of known resources . Data flows unimpeded from memory .
The opposite , alas , also happens . The individual usually knows that he is not in top-notch shape (not in the zone , not in form) , but has no choice but to take part .
The results are then also well below expectation .

The scholastic Zone uses the same neurological mechanisms as the sports Zone .
Training mechanisms developed for sports can be used for academic purposes .

The Team and Zones .
At first sight , it would seem more difficult to induce a Zone state in a number of individuals than in one individual . But it is paradoxically easier , and is used on industrial scale all over the world .

This is the highest-paid skill in the world .
What coaches and CEO's are extravagantly rewarded for . The ability to use a team to induce the Zone state in the most talented members of the team .
Note the emphasis on the most talented members of the team . The team is a tool to get the best out the most talented . It also induces Virtual Teams in them .
Think of it as a Socratic method involving mirror-neuron networks .
("What will my team think" , etc)

The traditional tools are well-known : entrainment under mild stress , mimetic emulation , isolation , exposure to carefully vetted social influences , etc .

Neuromagic has expanded on this toolkit , and will enhance it further in the normal competitive manner .

Note that Learned Helplessness is most emphatically not included . The idea is not to crush the most talented members of the team , but to induce them into the Zone , thus also dragging along many in the team not so talented .

Most Universities , especially in South Africa , (Stellenbosch in particular) , still crushes the best students under the misapprehension that they are building teams . They are just creating mediocrity . The talented are supposed to uplift the others , not join them .

Study Teams .
An interesting adaptation of the sports team idea . Widely used in US universities . Note that by pruning , the talented surround themselves with a supporting mimetic pool . This helps to maintain them in the Zone , and also drag along the many others who would not make it on their own .
A natural outflow is FaceBookism , now gathering momentum (see previous posts)

Virtual Teams .
Humans have the neurological means to form Virtual Teams .
Mirror-neuron networks .

Mild Asperger's persons are rich in Mirror Networks . They are also most prone to being crushed by social learned-helplessness techniques forced on them . The few that do survive this process do so via Virtual Teams . Usually characters they read from history .
It is no accident that Napoleon , Hitler , Stalin , Mao to name a few were avid readers of history . It was not primarily to learn from it (since they did not) , but to fuel their virtual teams . (One of the major reasons why spectacles fueled social change)

A Virtual Dream Team composed of Alexander , Caesar , Genghis , etc will result in a Supernerd of a different ilk than a Virtual Dream Team composed of Buddha , Jesus , Mohamed , etc .

From an overview , supernerds like these are useful to give the whole system a shake-up now and then .
Those who can't keep up , will have to learn to run a bit faster . Is that not what was drummed into them ?

Choosing your Virtual Team .
As you can see from above , choosing a well-balanced virtual team is essential to anybody's successful and happy functioning as a composite entity .

Techniques for doing this has been known for a long time (meditation , study , role-playing , getting married , etc)

But we now have drugs (eg Ritalin) , electronics (biofeedback , fMRI) , neuromagic that give us easy-to-use methods of precisely forming a Virtual Team .

For a sportsman , this means he can be in the Zone on demand . But it is addictive .
Ditto for academics .

Zone-Addiction .
Remember , being in the Zone is only in internal optimal state (Feel-good . Endorphin release .) . If this conflicts with external events , then depression or mania or both will result . (Eg Hitler when reality and the model in his mind parted company.)

The definition of addiction is that it freezes out other behaviours .
Like sleep , non-zonal states might be necessary for other behaviour-states to have a look-in . Research is needed .

Off-hand , from reserve considerations ,
(see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "New Tools: Reserves")
I would estimate that about of 1/3 of waking time is needed for non-Zonal activity . About 2-3 hours . The trick is to use neuromagic techniques to be in a Zonal state when the tournament occurs .

Toujours !

Andre .

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

SolarStorms of 2012 and Political Instability

SolarStorms of 2012 and Political Instability :
Andre Willers
8 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
Fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field influences neurological structures . Those persons whose brains are on the edge of attractor basins get flipped over the edge and start progressing to a new stability .
This is known as a revolution .

Discussion :
See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Sunspots and Global Warming" Jan 2008 .
Repeated in Appendix A for ease of reference .
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Sunspots 2" Jan 2008

The susceptibility of humans to magnetic field interference is well-documented .
It is used in Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation .

In a balanced human (ie well inside a neural chaotic attractor basin) , solar disruptions in the Earth's magnetic and electric fields would surface as irritability , but nothing serious .

But in brains close to the edge , the irritability spills over into a new attractor basin . Behaviour changes mildly at first , then more and more radically as the neural structure spirals into the new attractor basin .

Simultaneous instabilities erupt globally wherever the underlying grievances exits .

There is thus a fair degree of confidence in stating that the North African revolutions were triggered (note , not caused) by the solar eruptions in early 2011 .

Prediction :
Since the solar flares and sunspot activity is estimated to increase until a maximum in 2013 (Google it) , human nations and institutions where there are more than 10% of disaffected members are going to be under severe strain .
Even supposedly stable states (like the USA) might flip over into revolution , especially if a severe solar storm damages the infrastructure significantly .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Optimized Censorship: Other states at risk" Mar 2011

Sunspots and agricultural productivity :
There is fairly good empirical evidence that the period of low-sunspot activity preceding the rise to the new maximum is associated with lower agricultural productivity , due to lower temperatures . (Google it)
This means famine or higher food prices , such as experienced in 2007- 2011 .

"Any nation is only three meals away from a revolution" . An old , but true saying .
Imminent starvation of children or grandchildren will make most humans indifferent to the fear of death .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "SuicideTroops causes State instability" Mar 2011
Add neurological disturbance caused by a solar storm , and voila .

Effects on present Civilization of a massive Solar Storm :

A blip .

1.All those trillions spent on defense means that the backbones of the military communications networks are hardened against EMP .
2. Memes of the last 100 years of genocidal warfare are still circulating .The system will just hunker down into survival mode and rebuild .

Hysterical Focus :
I have not noticed any Hysterical Focus building up to ignition point .
Though a single major event would probably ignite one .

Y2K
The last time an Hysterical Focus ignited on a planetary scale was with Y2K .
Nothing happened .
Exactly .

It was a single point-of-failure for the entire civilization . All command and control electronic structures were affected .
A real civilization-buster .

But remember the air of hysteria ?
A typically human .way of doing a really thorough job .

Critical points :
1.Sea transportation
Having cleverly run down food reserves to about 2 months , humans will die in droves if food transportation and trade comes to halt .

But a major solar flare will have some interesting effects on the maritime insurance systems .
Some nifty footwork will be required if ship-owners refuse to let their vessels sail because insurance companies refuse cover , because GPS no longer works .
Commercial ship's officers are no longer capable of navigation without GPS , not to the owner of a multimillion dollar ship and cargo's satisfaction
(Look to Argentinia in 1914 , when something similar happened )

An immediate scheme of insurance quarantees by the Chaperone states to ensure the flow of food and trade would be required . Then getting suitably qualified navigators , in a tearing hurry .
These should be put in place before the event , but I would not hold my breath .

(An interesting time would await airlines .)

2.Orbital communications .
Many different satellite launching capabilities exist .
(Remember , humans can put any desired tonnage into orbit if they are willing to use Orion type nukes)
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Orion , Gaia need you!" Apr 2006

3.Chaperones .
The military of the strongest surviving states will be hardly affected in the short term . So the present MAD standoff should continue .
Their minimax optimum is then to act as chaperones to the survivors .
In the longer term they need the infrastructure they depend on to be repaired .

Socio-Economic systems .
There will be some major changes . But these will be a result , not a requirement of survival and rebuild .
This is already happening due to various economic crises .

Global warming .
Nobody knows what the effect will be .
According to the Gaia hypothesis , the planet should have evolved feedback loops that negate the pulse of extra energy of a full-on solar blast .
So the result might very well be a cooling , instead of an expected extra warming .

An amusing speculation :
Solar burp 4H + C + H20 -> dissolved methane clathrates sequestered near polar regions . This will really soak up a lot of carbon .
The methane then gets used by bacteria . A nice little loop .

Tanning lotion , anyone ?

Andre

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Appendix A

Sunspots and Global Warming
Andre Willers
8 Jan 2008

StagHeating .
The evidence strongly suggests that sunspot activity is decreasing at close to the rate of global warming due to CO2 . See articles below . (Wikipedia one)

What does this mean ?
Insolation (sunlight reaching Earth) decreases with the decrease in sunspots . Thus the minimum of sunspot cycle 23 (June 2006) means a lower insolation . This is an immediate effect . The weather is like winter but warmer .
But energy retention increases due to more CO2 . This is the Global Warming Effect . It is slower .

Example : The Effect on the Southern hemisphere in South Africa .
The summer westerly’s of 2007 are not pushed down as far as normal , but there is still an abnormal amount of energy (hence moisture) closer to the equator . The effect is more moisture than normal being underswept by westerly cold fronts moving much further north than usual during summer .

Heating and cooling at the same time , but in different places .The system is stagnant , but heating up . Hence StagHeating . The increase in energy-differential means more violent weather .

Why are the number of sunspots decreasing with increasing Earth temperature ?
(See previous discussions in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com)
Briefly , sunspots are feedback magnetic structures looping out above the corona . As such , the are extremely sensitive to disturbances from magnetic fields of the planets . Jupiter’s effect is noted below , but Earth’s magnetic field can have an even larger effect .

But we are more concerned with fluctuations . Taken that the solar magnetic feedback system known as a sunspot is extremely sensitive (since a large part of the feedback loop occurs outside the sun proper) , even minor perturbations in the magnetic field of Earth can upset sunspot formation . (Plasmas are notoriously hard to corral.) .

So , extra heating of Earth will cause fluctuations in its magnetic field (via Hadley cells in thunderstorms , ionosphere , etc) . This will disrupt sunspot formation until a new solar equilibrium is formed . This will mean a new insolation . etc . A slow oscillation will form .

This effect might seem minuscule , but remember we are talking about feedback loops outside the sun . Small perturbations can have big , non-linear consequences .

Another way in which Gaia regulates temperature .

The rapid heating of Earth 1000 to 1300 AD due to agriculture thus caused the Maunder Minimum , and hence the Little Ice Age . The same is happening now , but there is a lag between the driver effect on Earth and the sunspot activity . Hence the close lagging correlation . We are heading for a Maunder Minimum .

Ho-ho-ho!
Planetocide
Take three planets like Venus , Earth and Mars . If life on them can influence Solar behaviour , they will force optimization of solar behaviour . Only one can win then .
Your favourite Gaia !

The Magnetic Habitability Band .
Any stellar system will also have a very broad magnetic habitability band . If there is a planet or double planet in the center of the band , that is where life will be . The stellar-planetary coupling will inhibit life outside it .

Interventions :
This is absurdly easy .
Even a tunable EM Array from Earth’s surface coupled with a supercomputer now used for nuclear weapon simulations should be able to :
1. Suppress sunspots . Halt global warming for a while .
2. Sunspot laser : zap your neighbour for fun or profit .
3. Solar sails
4. Seti signaling (typically human : champagne tastes and beer income . A typeII civilization can be emulated . )
5. Terraform Luna or Terra .
6. Terraform Mars or Venus .
7. Move asteroids into close Earth orbits .
8. Hell , move Venus to one of Earth-Moon Lagrange points using its extra CO2 as reaction mass and solar lasers as energy . If you do it right , you end up with new habitable planet .
9. If you do it even better , the CO2 from Venus can be streamed to be captured by Mars . This can be used to terraform it in-situ or as reaction mass to move it to another Lagrange point around Earth .
10. Ditto for the moons of the gas giants . Make a Klemperer Rosette .

Maunder Minimum .
There might be a teensy little problem in restarting the extra-solar fires in our favourite sun . There are nearly an infinite number of ways for a sensitive feedback structure like a sunspot to go wrong , and only a few for it to go right . This is how feeble planetary magnetic fields can have an influence .

Thus , we can say that Sol is heading for a Maunder Minimum because of the rapidly changing magnetic fields of Earth are disrupting the extrasolar fusion processes in the magnetic bands on top of the sunspots . These give that 1-2 % extra insolation , but they can also quickly change . None of this waiting for millions of years while a photon struggles from the center of the sun . We want it , and we want it now!

I do not know what a Sun will do with a prolonged period without sunspots , but I suspect it is nothing nice . Massive chaotic outbursts spring to mind . Cepheid variables ?

A healthy star needs life around it . Quite literally .

Analysis of stellar spectra should show healthy stars with a high probability of life around them . Look for a high variability in sunspots .


Andre
Some actual data :
Vukcevic Data Fitting Equation .
http://side.oma.be/index.php3
Interesting datafitting . To be read with theory below and above .
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From New Scientist:
'Maverick' sunspot heralds new solar cycle
· 19:30 07 January 2008
· NewScientist.com news service
· Maggie McKee
A new 11-year solar cycle has officially begun, now that a sunspot has been found with a magnetic field pointing in the opposite direction from those in the previous cycle. But researchers are still divided over how active – and potentially damaging to Earth's satellites and power grids – the new cycle will be.
Sunspots are relatively cool regions where magnetic fields from within the Sun have risen up and broken through its surface. They vary in number – going from a minimum to a maximum and back to a minimum again – about every 11 years, the same timescale on which the Sun's magnetic poles reverse direction.
But predicting when the cycles will begin and end and how many sunspots they will produce is a tricky business, says David Hathaway of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, US. For example, he had predicted that the new sunspot cycle, cycle 24, would be quite active. Since active cycles usually start earlier than average, he expected the cycle's first sunspot to appear a year ago – but it was only observed on Friday, 4 January.
"I'm happy to see this spot," he told New Scientist late on Friday. "For more than the last year, I come in every morning and look at the pictures from SOHO [the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite] and say, 'No, not yet.' And today, someone beat me into work and said, 'Go take a look – I think there's a spot."
The spot – along with a couple of previous magnetic hints that cycle 24 was underway – suggests the Sun is at or near solar minimum, a time when sunspots in the new cycle outnumber the old.
Just when solar max will occur is up for debate, with some research teams predicting 2011 and others 2012. "The bigger the cycle, the shorter the time it takes to get there," says Hathaway. "A number of us believe it's going to be a big cycle and hence it will peak earlier."
Conveyor belt
The differing predictions come down to how quickly magnetic fields are shuffled around within the Sun, he says.
A model by Mausumi Dikpati of the High Altitude Observatory in Boulder, Colorado, US, and colleagues suggests that the magnetic field remnants of sunspots ride a conveyor-belt like flow of plasma through the Sun.
The flow takes them from the sunspots' appearance at low latitudes to the poles, then drags them to a depth of 200,000 kilometres, where they get stretched out and strengthened before resurfacing at low latitudes. "Once they get strong enough, they rise like balloons or bubbles and where they pop to the surface, they [can] make sunspots," says Hathaway.
"Her model explains a lot of things well," he adds. "In particular, why the sunspot cycle is 11 years as opposed to 7 or 20. In her model, it comes down to how fast that conveyor belt is moving."
Bubbling motions
Because the belt takes so long to move magnetic fields through the Sun, the magnetic fields near the poles at any given time should not be used as an indicator for the following cycle's strength, according to the model. Instead, they feed into the cycle after that. The remnants of sunspots in cycle 23, for example, appear relatively weak at the poles, suggesting that sunspot cycle 25 should be wimpy.
The model predicts that the new cycle, 24, should be quite active, however, generating about 150 sunspots per day near solar max (see Bumper sunspot crop forecast for next solar cycle).
In alternative models, the conveyor belt is not so important for moving magnetic fields through the Sun. In those models, the fields diffuse downwards quickly, "shuffled down by bubbling motions within the Sun", says Hathaway. Those models predict the magnetic fields at the poles should affect the strength of the sunspot cycle that immediately follows. That suggests that the new cycle should be unimpressive, producing just 75 sunspots per day near solar max.
"This cycle will tell us a lot," says Hathaway. "It should discriminate between these models and may even tell us that neither one is right, which would make it even more interesting."
Solar storms
If the new sunspot cycle does turn out to be strong, that could mean trouble for satellites and electrical grids, since they can be disrupted by solar eruptions, called coronal mass ejections, that often accompany sunspots.
But Hathaway says solar observatories such as Japan's Hinode satellite are helping to give scientists a 'heads up' for potentially dangerous solar storms, so that satellite instruments that may be sensitive to blasts of radiation and charged particles can be switched off ahead of time.
"We're far along enough now that we can basically see the signs there's going to be a coronal mass ejection," he says. "It's still a little like predicting tornadoes – a weatherman can look at Doppler radar and winds within a cloud and say it's apt to produce a tornado. But [whether it will produce one] here, at this time – they still can't do that."
He says tracking the number of sunspots that appear from now until mid-2009 should settle the question of when solar max will occur – the sunspot number ought to rise quickly if it's an active cycle.



The following is from from Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot
However, the surrounding areas are brighter and the overall effect is that more sunspots means a brighter sun. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, of the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W m-2 compared to 1366 W m-2 for the average solar constant)[3][4]. This range is slightly smaller than the change in radiative forcing caused by the increase in atmospheric CO2 since the 18th century[5]. During the Maunder Minimum in the 17th Century there were hardly any sunspots at all. This coincides with a period of cooling known as the Little Ice Age. It has been speculated that there may be a resonant gravitational link between a photospheric tidal force from the planets, the dominant component by summing gravitational tidal force (75%) being Jupiter's with an 11 year cycle[6].
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Jupiter's influence
· 20 March 2004 New Scientist
While the work of Mausumi Dikpati suggests that meridional flows in the sun's convective layer may allow us to forecast sunspot activity (6 March, p 38), other forces may also be at work. In particular, the giant planets in the solar system may play a role through the gravitational pull they exert on the massive amount of fluid flowing in the outer layer of the sun.
Curiously, this gravitational force can be expressed as a Fourier series whose most important terms have interesting periodicities: one of these coincides with the 11-year cycle of the sunspots. What we may be seeing, therefore, is the direct influence of planetary tidal forces and their effects on the stability of the magnetic loops created in the meridional flows in the sun's convective layer. These forces could be a major factor in the cycle of magnetic loops believed to create the sunspots.
Jupiter is the largest contributor to the solar plasma tides. It may eventually transpire that its influence contributes to our climate.
From issue 2439 of New Scientist magazine, 20 March 2004, page 32
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Saturday, March 05, 2011

Monogrammed and Chirped Steaks.

Monogrammed and Chirped Steaks
Andre Willers
5 Mar 2011

Synopsis:
How to monogram the perfect steak .

Discussion :
Cook it Sous-vide
See http://www.seriouseats.com/2010/03/how-to-sous-vide-steak.html

When searing or blow-torching , put strips of aluminium foil over the steak in the desired monogram .

Voila !

Monogrammed steaks .

Alternatively , fairly heavy pressure can be put on the steak during sous-vide cooking to compress the protein , giving an impression of the monogram . A quick pass with a blow-torch will high-light it .

Chirp Microwave Sous-Vide Cooking .
Three principles have to be kept in mind :
1.Bacterial inactivation optimizes from about 50 C(122F)
2.Meat protein cooking optimizes around 122F-149F(50C - 65 C)
3.Heat production is directly proportional to wattage of microwave .

Use a standard piece of steak (say 200 gm) . One serving .
So we want a time-weighted average of temperature at 57.5 C , with heat pulses reverberating back and forth in the steak .. Max 65C , min 50C .

Calculation :
Each pulse of microwaves of time t(i) generates Heat h(i)
(Sigma h(i)*t(i))/ Sigma(t(i) = 57.5C ….eq 1
Weighted average = Sous-vide temperature .

h(i) = k*W(i) … where h is heat temperature , k is constant and W is Wattage of microwave .
k is about 180/1000*(3*60) = 1/1000 for a standard 200 gm steak being cooked at 1000W for three minutes .

We Chirp Wattage as W(i)=100 *(i)
This gives
k* 100* (Sigma (i)*t(i))/ Sigma(t(i) = 57.5C ….eq 2
This gives
Sigma ((i)*t(i))/ Sigma(t(i) = 57.5*10 ….eq 3

This has an infinity of solutions ,since t(i) can be anything .

But since this is slow-cooking process ,we can make the assumption that lower temperatures are better , with a floor of F . Hence, we make the assumption that
t(i) = (m*i +F) …where m and F are constants

Then we have
m*Sigma (i*(m*i +F))/(m* Sigma((m*i +F))) = 57.5*10 ….eq 4
=(m*Sigma (i^2)+F*Sigma(i) ) /( m* Sigma(i) +Sigma F) = 57.5*10 ….eq 5

=(m*(n)*(n+1)*(2n+1)/6 + F*(n)*(n+1)/2 ) / (m*(n)*(n+1)/2 + F*n) = 575 …eq 6

If F=50 degrees Celsius and n=10 , then m solves as m=1.44

This means that if your meat starts cooking at 50 C and you chirp 10 times , then
t(i) = i*1.44 seconds
I am not sure if the order matters . Experiment .

Results :

Chirp Cooking for 200 g steak .
m= 1.44
Power Seconds
n
1 100 1
2 200 3
3 300 4
4 400 6
5 500 7
6 600 9
7 700 10
8 800 12
9 900 13
10 1000 14
Sum= 79

If you cut out steps in the sequence , you will end up with a raw, soggy piece of meat .
But the order could probably be changed .

Stand for 5-10 minutes .

This means that even cheap cuts of meat can be made Prima .

Chirp means cheap .

Enjoy !

Andre
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Chaperones of Gaia .

Chaperones of Gaia .
Andre Willers
5 Mar 2011

"With a little help from our friends ." Beatles

Synopsis:
Humans have beaten previous climate changes by a combination of migration (or it's modern equivalent , trade) , friendship , alliances and chaperones .Threats were turned into opportunities .

Discussion :

Friendship and alliances are built into humans , known as politics .

Chaperones can be defined as altruistic , or remotely enlightened self-interested entities .
Chaperones are altruistic , but not charities . They expect a return , but can wait for tens or hundreds or thousands or millions of years if necessary .

Biochemical chaperones (like heat-shock adaptation systems) are included here .

Humans like to have a shorter timespan , like 10 – 100 years .

Challenges at present or in near future :

1.Overpopulation , surfacing as mass rebellion
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Optimized censorship: , "SuicideTroops cause state instability" Feb 2011 .
2.Climate enforced migrations .
Major at risk areas : (SciAm Jan 2011 p50 " Casualties of climate change")
2.1 Mozambique
2.2 Mekong delta
2.3 Central America , especially Mexico .

It is in the long-range self-interest of the present chaperones (USA , Canada , Russia , UK , EU , China , India , NGO's , private persons ) to convert this challenge into an opportunity .

Use human skills in migration management
(friendship , alliances , diplomacy , Chaperones , education ) to convert a mouth into a pair of hands .

If they do not , can they expect aid when misfortune visits them ?

Gaia can see humans either as an industrious , benign skin-ecology , or as a deletrious rash .

When Gaia itches , Gaia scratches .

Andre

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Thursday, March 03, 2011

Suicide troops causes state instability.

SuicideTroops Causes State Instability
Andre Willers
3 Mar 2011

"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"
"The Center cannot hold"

Synopsis :
The memes setting up suicidal human troops spill over into the general populace. They do not have the corresponding control memes . The State loses it's main control (Fear of Death) and general instability results .

Discussion :

Historical :
Surviving societies have been extremely careful of using suicide troops , not because they are not very effective , but because the society loses all control over the conduct of the members.

What are you going to do to somebody who does not fear death or pain ?

They used Honour , Bushido , Heaven , Reincarnation , Jade Emperor , etc .

This works in carefully prepared troops .
Examples are Kamikaze , Nazi equivalents (see Me368B) , etc

Mind-control systems like Roman-Catholic Church circa 1300AD or Communists never used them .
The results always turned in their hand .

In religious terms , the individuals decide on their own destiny , seen as an act of pride .

They are then uncontrollable by the State .

Suicide bombers:
The meme escaped from a very carefully selected cadre into the general populace .
Disdain for death became fashionable in a deep sense .
Hence the populist uprisings in the Arab world at the moment . Note that this is different in a fundamental sense from the uprisings in Eastern-Europe late 1980's , which were sourced from material discontent .
These are from both religious and material source.

Glorifying suicide-bombers have come around and bit them .

A modest prediction :
The degree of future instability is directly related to the degree in which direct or indirect promulgation of suicide-bombers or troops occurred .

This means Saudi-Arabia , Pakistan , Israel (Masada) , etc

The history is fascinating .
1The Roman Republic destabilized because of too many citizen soldiers . The Empire only stabilized after professional armies arrived .
2.Meso-America .Always teetered on the knife-edge because of death worship , until Christianity arrived . Even without the plagues , the end result would have been the same .
3.Protestantism , the Roman Catholic's kamikaze .without bushido .

4 States:.
Christianity , Islam , Roman , Buddhism , Hinduism , Shintuism all tried the idea of specialist Suicide-Corps , and all came to sticky end . They usually had to be put down after rebelling (ie putting their own judgement above that of the State , the very thing they were first formed for . But the control systems fail or get perverted)
Like with poison gas or bio-warfare , your own casualties can easily exceed that of your enemy .
Oops!

Chaperones .
The resultant states can easily decivilize and depopulate without a strong neighbouring state lending aid and succour .

Germany and Japan circa 1945 or USSR circa 1992 spring to mind .

Contrast with the Western Roman Empire circa 400 AD , Middle-East circa 1400 AD China circa Ming was a real tragedy . They managed to get rid of the Mongols , but the effort exhausted them . There was no chaperone .

Present :
The Arab states will destabilize , and there is a real danger that they decivilize in a welter of anarchism . The West , Russia , China and India are strong enough to act as chaperones .

"Tojours , mes infants!"

Andre