Friday, October 28, 2005

Birdflu Survival Update -4

Birdflu Survival Update -4

Dated 28/10/2005

Some biochemistry from an evolutionary perspective.
Evolutionary principles:
A Things go from simpler to complex.
B Repetition of coding DNA sequences

This results in conversion of digital DNA to analog concentrations of chemicals . This is a DNA favourite , as it easily happens that portions of the DNA is replicated . Eg CTG might be favourable , but CTG CTG CTG even more so . The rest is straightforward survival of the fittest .

The result is that the system is very conservative . The simpler molecules get used first . More fine-tuned control mechanisms evolve by using the intermediary steps in the more primitive chain as controls in their own right . The hormone system in mammals is a good example . Eg Many essential hormones used to be intermediary steps in the synthesis of oestrogen . The same effect can be seen in vitamins .

What has this to do with flu?

The flu virus penetrates the cell-wall by using a protein called neuraminidase , which dissolves the cell-wall . Once inside , the virus replicates . But it then has to get out again . Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) inhibits the secondary formation of neuraminidase after infection of the cell . The propagation of the infection is inhibited , as the infectious DNA is imprisoned by the cell-wall .

Neuraminidase interacts strongly with a simple benzene-type chemical called Resorcinol . This reaction is so strong that it is used as a marker for experimenters .

There is a whole family of simple benzene-type chemicals associated with Resorcinol

Known ones:
Shikimic acid ( pathways lead to salicylic acid , acetylsalicylic acid(aspirin) , methyl salicilate (oil of wintergreen) , tyrosine , vanillin (vanilla) , essential fatty acids , prostaglandins , anti-biotics like erythromycin , tetracyclines , doxordibicin , tamiflu)

Important study :
Search for “Catalytic properties of neuraminidase of non-cholera vibrios” by Lavrovskii and Berzov .
“…activation of neuraminidase was found in the presence of bivalent metal ions , especially Ca2+ , while chelate-forming complexes and heavy metal salts inhibited the enzyme .”

Pulling it all together:

1 There is interaction between Shikimic derivatives : a very proven one is aspirin and prostaglins . The very simplicity of the molecular structures strongly suggest that there are no energy-humps needing high-energy synthesis or enzymatic intermediation .
( In other words , I suspect that the supposed difficulties in synthesizing Tamiflu are a deliberate attempt to complexify a simple process in order to maximize profits.)

2 Skin and Cell-walls
From the general evolutionary principles above , one would expect that skin-structures would evolve out of cell-wall structures . Why reinvent the wheel ?

3 One would then expect that things affecting the skin would affect cellular walls
Resorcinol , salicylic acid , acetylsalicylic acid and oil of wintergreen are used for “acne,warts,dandruff ,psoriasis and similar conditions”

4 Sulfur
As sulfur is vital to the scaffolding of any cell , it is used as an adjunct in any of the above treatments . The sulfur serves to prevent inhibition of recovery . Think about this carefully .
Human burial practices sequester the large amount of biologically active sulfur away from the recycling process . A serious sulfur deficit is building up . Six billion people , each having about 15 kg of sulfur in their bodies , represents goodly fraction of the available sulfur-biomass . Add the lot in the cemeteries and any large-scale reforestation will create a significant health risk .

5 Arteries and veins.
Inside-out skin . The evolutionary ancestry is the same . The environment interacts in the lungs/gills .
Arterial callus equivalents are called plaque. Note the effect of aspirin .

6 Outside skin
The outside skin is connected to the inside-skin : ie lungs , nose , mouth ,stomach intestines , bladder , kidneys all have direct contact with the outside world and can be considered as one surface . So , for instance , what soap you use influences the micro-ecology of bacteria on your skin and eventually your resistance to disease or digestion Families have their own unique cultures of bacteria and yeasts on their skins . Communal baths (without bactericides) creates a monoculture of skin ecology which can severely compromise immune systems , especially without sufficient sulfur . The medieval decline of communal baths was a logical response . Note that communal baths have not revived . (LA proves the point.) . Japan avoided the worst by keeping it small and class-dependant .

7 What to do
From the suspicion that there is no natural energy hump between Shikimic derivatives (see para 1 above) , the direction of chemical reactions can be driven by concentrations . To be more exact , enhancing the concentration of a derivative can flow-back to the precursor and spill over into other derivatives .There is a back-pressure .

7 ; 1 Raise the temperature : the flu virus does not do so well at temperatures above 104 F . Pulse breathe 105F steam at 5 minute intervals for about half an hour , rest for about 2 hours . Repeat . Adding vanilla won’t hurt . The 5 minutes comes from the potentiating interval needed for a neuron to lay down long-term learning . The logic is that it must have some deep significance in the immune system ( which is , after all , only a glorified school .)

7 ; 1 ;2 : Alter oxidation patterns over longer terms than breathing
The Oxygen and CO2 levels are also dependant on the breathing pattern .
Pulsing the concentration of O2/CO2 over a longer period than the normal breathing influences small organisms faster than larger organisms . This differential can be exploited . (Cf Yoga)

7 ; 2 Add H2S : Suspended animation : About 80 ppm of H2S activates some very old genes that suspends animation at a molecular level ( see below) .

Wear goggles . (See dosages)

Pulsing the concentration of H2S between zero and 80 ppm will incapacitate (suspend biological activity) in small organisms faster than in larger organisms . This differential can be exploited .

I suspect that the normal immune system can handle a lot of insults given this advantage .

It should also help a lot with auto-immune diseases , as each pulse forces the immune system to differentiate between elements it did not think worthy of differentiating before . Neat .

Even neater if the ageing apoptosis mechanisms can be confused .

Suspended Animation (the real thing!)
In 2005, Mark Roth and other scientists from the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle demonstrated that mice can be put into a state of suspended animation by applying a low dosage of hydrogen sulfide (80 ppm H2S) in the air. The breathing rate of the animals sank from 120 to 10 breaths per minute and their temperature fell from 37 °C to 2 °C above ambient temperature (in effect, they had become cold-blooded). The mice survived this procedure for 6 hours and afterwards showed no negative health consequences.
Such a hibernation occurs naturally in many mammals and also in toads, but not in mice. (Mice can fall into a state called clinical torpor when food shortage occurs). If the H2S-induced hibernation can be made to work in humans, it could be useful in the emergency management of severely injured patients, and in the conservation of donated organs.
As mentioned above, hydrogen sulfide binds to cytochrome oxidase and thereby prevents oxygen from binding, which apparently leads to the dramatic slowdown of metabolism. Animals and humans naturally produce some hydrogen sulfide in their body; researchers have proposed that the gas is used to regulate metabolic activity and body temperature, which would explain the above findings
Dosages of H2S:
Treatment involves immediate inhalation of amyl nitrite, injections of sodium nitrite, inhalation of pure oxygen, administration of bronchodilators to overcome eventual bronchospasm, and in some cases hyperbaric oxygen therapy.
Exposure to lower concentrations can result in eye irritation (because of the high alkality of the SH- anion), a sore throat and cough, shortness of breath, and fluid in the lungs. These symptoms usually go away in a few weeks. Long-term, low-level exposure may result in fatigue, loss of appetite, headaches, irritability, poor memory, and dizziness. Higher concentrations of 700-800 ppm tend to be fatal.
· 0.0047 ppm is the recognition threshold, the concentration at which 50% of humans can detect the characteristic rotten egg odor of hydrogen sulfide [2]
· 10-20 ppm is the borderline concentration for eye irritation.
· 50-100 ppm leads to eye damage.
· At 150-250 ppm the olfactory nerve is paralyzed after a few inhalations, and the sense of smell disappears, often together with awareness of danger,
· 320-530 ppm leads to pulmonary edema with the possibility of death.
· 530-1000 ppm causes strong stimulation of the central nervous system and rapid breathing, leading to loss of breathing;
o 800 ppm is the lethal concentration for 50% of humans for 5 minutes exposition (LC50).
Concentrations over 1000 ppm cause immediate collapse with loss of breathing, even after inhalation of a single breath.

7 ;3 Mega-doses of aspirin should lead to an increase in natural neuraminidase inhibitors . Be careful about side-effects (ulcers , blood-clotting). I cannot find anything on the net . Johan , Eben – your bailiwick .

7 ; 4 Take high Vit C doses ( 3-4 grams /day) As per Linus Pauling. Be careful about ulcers Use buffered preparations .

7 ; 5 Take MSM : about 3 grams a day. (Biologically active sulfur) . Vit C speeds uptake .

7 ; 6 Replace skin cultures : wash in a bacteriocidal soap . Then smear a yoghurt with live cultures all over you . Wait about 10 minutes , rinse and dry . Repeat daily for about 3 weeks . Any probiotic culture can be used instead of live yoghurt. The idea is to shift the skin ecology in the direction of symbiotic organisms , instead of the random guerilla skin our society encourages .

7 ; 7 Take tyrosine. .(Back pressure)

7 ; 8 Eat vanilla flavours.(Back pressure)

7 ; 9 Smell vanilla . .(Back pressure)

7 ; 10 Take erythromycin , tetracycline , doxorubicin. .(Back pressure)

I would really like some feedback on items 7;2 , 7;3 .

Andre Willers

New Climate Paradigm.

New Climate Paradigm.

Scientist : William F. Ruddiman , a professional climate scientist ( Professor of Environmental Sciences at University of Virginia ) . He is a well-regarded university scientist not connected to any pressure groups .

Publications : Various peer-reviewed journals .
Popular book :
“ Plows , Plagues & Petroleum”
Published by Princeton University Press in 2005
ISBN 10: 0 691 12164 8
A very balanced , clear-headed view of the whole climate-change history .

Large scale agriculture has since circa 8 000 ago counteracted natural climate cooling (which was caused by Milankovitch cycles) through land clearing (ie deforestation -CO2 release) and rice paddies ( flooding - methane release) . This was gradual until about 200 years ago , when the Industrial Revolution started .

Evidence used includes quantitive calculations on how humans could have released the required masses of green-house gasses – a very convincing argument .

The inverse ( the abandonment and subsequent reforestation of agricultural areas on a large scale due to pandemics ) and the reversal to the natural cooling is covered .(ie Little Ice Age circa 1400 AD to 1800 AD mainly due to Black Death and American pandemic depopulation of extensive agricultural areas throughout Mississippi-valley , Middle-America and Amazon-riverbank after Columbus ) .

Comment :

1 . The New-Paradigm
The previous assumption was that the climate changed and humans adapted to it . But if the alteration in human numbers or practices is of sufficient magnitude to alter the climate past certain critical thresholds , then a lot of history has to be re-written .

The cause of green-house gases fluctuation may be local , but the climatic effect is global .

2 .Feedback processes :
The effects of even small climate-fluctuations on marginal or overpopulated areas are severe . For example , the Little Ice Age . The extinction of the Norse colony in Greenland and the famine deaths in Europe can be shown to be causally linked to the bubonic plagues in Europe and the massive depopulation in the Americas .
The fate of the Roman Empire is also about to be redelved . Middle-East , etc .
Exciting .

3 Globalization.
Some completely unexpected things occur .

Globalization means cheap trade .
Agricultural products like wheat or corn can be imported cheaper from more favourable areas than they can be produced locally . Local agricultural land is then abandoned and reforested , while the population usually relocates to a city . The effect is the same as a pandemic in the country-side and swollen cities . The imports are produced more efficiently than a subsistence farming set-up , so the net global effect is a reduction of the human agricultural foot-print .

Even a subsistence farmer cannot survive , since he cannot trade a surplus for certain really , really essential things he cannot produce (eg salt , agricultural implements ) . His surplus is valueless for trading , since it can be imported cheaper than he can produce it . He might store it , but one or two years of drought and he literally starves . Of course , minor things like education or health is simply unaffordable

A good example of this is Africa today .
( A personal observation : in the area from Port Elizabeth to East London in South Africa ( about 400 km on the national route) there are no commercial farmers and vwery few subsitence farmers ( I counted 3) . The formerly commercial farmers converted to zero-maintenance game-farms and the subsistence farmers moved en-masse to Cape Town . The whole reach was reverting to thickets of thorn trees .)

The same thing happens with logging : it is more cost-efficient to log virgin tropical forests and ship them thousands of miles than growing and logging cultivated forests .The net global effect is a reduction of the human forest destruction .

The net effect of both is cooling effect , even though populations have increased . (The effect of industrialization is stripped out ) .

Local effects are severely asymmetric . Intensively cultivated prairies in North America means abandonment of farms or factory animal feedlot-farms in Europe or Asia . Clear-cutting in Indonesia means forests in Japan ,Europe or North America . Climatic disturbances in the short term ( 50 years) will occur .

But if the trading system breaks down , (ie collapse of the civilization) , the survivors usually restart subsistence farming , with the consequent deforestation . A warmer period follows . Examples: Warming after fall of Roman Empire , Collapse of Bronze Age civilization circa 1200 BC . (But not the Mayans – why?)

But there is another joker in the pack : ecological disturbance . The original deforestation/land clearing selected as survivors the toughest pests ( like rats) . Disease-prone areas were also left to the last . When abandonment occurs , these pests and their diseases explode into the vacant niches . The humans have by then packaged themselves into nice , concentrated parcels in the cities. Cycles of pandemics occur .

The wild comes to the city .

The broad pattern then seems to be :
Agriculture -> deforestation ->warming ->surpluses -> trade ->cities -> globalization ->farm abandonment -> reforestation -> cooling , severe ecodisturbances -> wars , pandemics -> collapse -> trade ceases -> subsistence farming restarts -> deforestation and the cycle repeats .

4 . An intriguing speculation about the Roman Empire.

Roman Empire:
Did the trade of cheap Egyptian corn through the Roman empire cause a switch from cereal growing to vines or olives (which is reforestation ) , causing a cooling which reduced the rainfall on the steppes , bringing the volkewanderung of steppe-dwellers down on their heads ?

Note that the very large central water wheat-mills in Gaul makes more economic sense if the wheat is imported , ground and the flour then distributed , rather than the wheat being collected , milled and then redistributed .

Reforestation crops (like vines , olives or fruits ) take years to yield a return . They are value-added crops , that can only afforded growers with deep pockets . The net result is the destruction of the small landowner . Even large latifundia were vulnerable . Even large pieces of ground are abandoned as they cannot produce any crop that cannot be produced cheaper elsewhere in the empire . As noted above , not even subsistence farmers can survive in this environment .

The citizen-farmer , once the backbone of the old Republic , has now become a client of a patron in a Roman city . The patron can afford it because of his large landholdings , worked by slaves and maintained by other armed slaves .

The only exception is on the frontiers , where retired soldiers are subsidized onto subsistence farms . But as already noted , subsistence farms are not viable in an empire . So the empire had to keep on subsidizing them . Eventually , this cost beggared the Roman Empire . It wasn’t just a soldier : it was his wife , children ,parents , uncles , cousins , etc. . If the state tried to refuse , they threatened to rebel or join the invaders ( who were family in any case) . The state by this time had only slaves or clients ( who were semi-slaves to the patron ) – not good soldier material .

The exception was the Christians , which had become more militant . (The meeker ones had been killed off in the pogroms) . Constantine realized this . He reorganized the army around loyal Christian cadres , concentrated them in the cities and cut the frontiers and the latifundia loose . This was a much bigger betrayal than the Roman retreat out of Britain . At first , only the relations of the frontier-troops burst through . Still , there were centuries-worth of scores to settle . But then came the steppe-dwellers , ferociously hungry because of the cooling and lower rainfall caused by the Roman Empire .

The age of the independent castle and armoured cavalry had arrived .
One of the largest land-reformation exercises ever unfolded . All the latifundia in Europe were parceled up as farms to the invading tribes . Vines , olivetrees , etc were uprooted and burnt (only fuel available) .

Trade crashed . Food transport ceased . A terrible time ensued .
Cities not having hinterlands protected by Christian troops , were looted and most of the inhabitants killed .
During the first winter , superfluous slaves on the latifundia (or cities) died of starvation , as the invader’s crops were not in yet , and they had none to spare .

Bitter triangular warfare between the newly invading (farmer) tribes , the steppe nomads and the fortified Christian Roman cities raged . The steppe nomads lost and were expelled . The tribes remained on the land outside of the Roman fortified cities .

This learning episode is the main reason why a Mongol invasion of Europe would have failed .

Constantine’s gamble salvaged something , but at a terrible price .

All this burning , looting and farming over the whole of Europe sharply raised the CO2 levels . The time-sensitivity of the climate to mild changes to CO2 levels is about 50 years (from Ruddiman) . So , by about 600 AD the climate in Europe got warmer , rain increased on the steppes and the steppe-dwellers’ pressure ceased .

5 Do the Steppe-Dwellers have a stable population size ?

The answer seems to be yes . (See Atlas of World Population History by McEvedy and Jones ) . The Mongolian steppe area’s population has remained steady at about 700 000 for millennia ( even during Genghis Khan).

The reason seems to be the low wealth multiplier : a herder can get only one calf a year , no matter how good it is . A farmer can get 30 – 100 fold increase in a good year . He can also store this . The herder has to have at least 30 years of good years in succession to equal one good farmer’s year . Now you see why nomads are just about extinct .

A farmer can survive 3 bad years in succession , because of this multiplier . A herder cannot . Every bad year might kill say half his stock , leaving him with about 10 % of what he started with at the end . The succeeding good year will leave him with at best 20% of his starting stock .

So , nomads cannot overpopulate easily , but is very sensitive to long-term downward trends in climate .

Which leads to the interesting speculation that the collapse of the middle-American civilizations (Maya , etc) triggered the initial cooling that led to the Mongolian excursions .

Another anomaly is the collapse of Chinese innovation in the 1400 –1500 ‘s . The Little Ice age decreased temperatures over Mongolia and Manchuria . Barbarian pressures on the Northern Frontiers increased and the disasterous central decision was made to concentrate resources on repelling this threat . The exploration fleets were burnt .

One can go on and on.



Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Life , Immortality and Probability

Life , Immortality and Probability

Probability in a mathematical sense is defined as the ratios of the number of occurrences of equally likely possible events . It is a circular argument , as “equally likely” introduces the probability concept in the definition of probability .

Example: flip a coin .

The ideal coin has only two sides , with equal likelihood between heads or tails .

The real-world coin is totally deterministic on one throw , but can become chaotic on multiple throws . Also , it can be heads , tails or side . So , not only the initial states of the throw has to be considered , but also the end-states (ie if the coin lands on a grid of vertical slats where only sides are allowed , or horreur ! ,slanted.).

Life insurance:

The risk concept here was based purely on statistics :

An example is the best explanation :

Choose a group of humans and an age , say ,45:

Count (all humans with Age 45) = L45 and count the survivors of the group a year later at age 46 =L46 .

The frequency of deaths in the 45 year old echelon per start for your chosen group is :

q45 = (L45 – L46 ) / L45

This factor is (q45) is then assumed to be the probability of death in the next year for somebody in the 45 year-old echelon and belonging to the chosen group .

This qx factor (where x is the age ) , is fundamental concept of the whole trillion-dollar life insurance industry . Of course , it can get very complicated , but this is the core .

For example :

The statistical probability of surviving from age 45 to age 46 = ( 1- q45 ) by definition .

The statistical probability of surviving from age 45 to age 77 is

(1-q45) * (1-q46) * (1-q47) * … * (1-q76) , where * denotes multiplication .

So , to get an age from where you would have a 70% chance of surviving to age 77 ,

Begin with (1-q76) and multiply with successive (1-q75) , (1-q74)) etc until the product equals 0.7 .

Obtaining the qx’s :

The mortality experience is different for different groups . Britain , Japan ,SA are obviously different for all ages and socio-economic groups . Because of the multiplication in calculating the end-probability , even small successive differences in the qx’s can make a huge difference .

For insurance companies , this makes the difference between profit in loss when in a competitive situation . They also cheat , and price-fixing is rife . The amounts involved are huge . A major problem is that an insurance company cannot tell whether is solvent or not , as the inherent uncertainty in the underlying figures , as well as the lack of record-keeping of all previous fudging of the qx’s obscures the company’s liabilities . The actuaries will keep on hedging on the high side , until collapse is unavoidable . Hence , Insurance companies usually collapse rapidly and with little warning (eg Sage , etc)

Actuarial tables of qx’s or Lx’s are available from most libraries , but only for the very broadest of groups (ages per country) .

As Insurance companies became more competitive , the groups of qx’s were sliced finer ( per sex , race , Socio-Economic group , etc ) . The mortality (qx) of a female ,white wife of a company director is obviously much lower than that of shanty dweller .

The problem of the finer slices is that the number people in the groups falls sharply . The statistical side of things get a bit dicey . They are also usually propriatal . (Think thumbsuck)

Notice that the cross-subsidization ( the whole point of insurance) is now only inside the group (unless the company cheats and subsidises the rich from the poor to get bigger premiums : a common occurrence)

Enter genetical testing :

This is a “real” probability based on the individual or on a group of genes , not on a statistical probability . At the present moment , this is still an imperfect science . As it becomes better , the moment of non-accidental death becomes more-and-more fixed and the incentive to insure becomes the same as the incentive to save .

Cross-subsidization vanishes except for accidents and cheating .

Immortality (except for accidents):

An immortal needs only take out accident insurance . It is interesting that the same is true of someone whose genetic risks are perfectly known , but who ages .

How long will an immortal live?

A meaningless question . More insightful is how many out of 1000 immortals will survive after 24 000 years . According to present accident mortalities , about 5 . But the accidental mortality rate for immortals would be much , much smaller than for mortals . It makes much more sense to talk of the half-life of immortals . A power-law is more likely . More immortals in the short term , but about the same in the long term. Still about 5 after 24 000 years.

How many immortals can a society support?

Max about 5 % . The same percentage as the leadership in any human group , regardless of size . Think of it as a recessive virtual gene . Longevity is enhanced as recessives match in the lower strata of society , displacing the top ones . Societies are inherently unstable , because the longevity genes are not dominant . (Dominant longevity genes in any life-system suicided in Malthusian extravagances very early-on)

The 5% leadership class acts like a virtual immortal class , but with internal and external pressures forcing change . Quite elegant , actually .

For human societies , it is immaterial whether the ruling group is immortal or not . An end state which must be extremely frustrating to actual immortals , since any action they take will wiggle back to the start point after a few centuries .

You can do the rest yourselves


Wednesday, October 05, 2005

Birdflu Survival Update

Birdflu Survival Update

Dated 3/10/2005


“Nature Medicine , DOI : 10.3038 / nm1267 “

“New Scientist 16/07/2005 ‘Halting Meltdown in the Lungs ‘ by E. Mackenzie”

Summary :

ARDS ( Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome ) is the result of a runaway response by the host’s own immune system . The mortality rate is about 50% .

The stronger the host’s immune system , the more lethal it is .

This is the main killer with SARS , the 1918 Flu and H5N1 .

It is triggered by too high concentrations of Angiotensin II .

One of this chemical’s receptor sites can be blocked by the blood-pressure drug Losartan . This apparently also block ARDS .


Remember this!

It might save your life this coming Northern Hemisphere winter . See WHO warning of 29/09/2005 . Estimated fatalities range up to 120 million .

(Note that the only effective treatment – Tamiflu- has not yet been approved in South Africa and only limited supplies in First World countries have been stockpiled .)

Reminder in case of pandemic :

Do not touch your nose , lips , eyes or ears with non-sterile fingers . This is more difficult than it sounds , as self-grooming is deeply-hardwired in the mammalian genes . See how often people on TV touch their noses , etc .
Do not touch possible transmission surfaces with your hands . In SARS it was mostly lift-buttons and door-handles . Tap-handles , toilet-buttons , hand-driers , cutlery and in general , anything handled by anyone else should not be touched with bare hands .
Stay away from airports , shopping malls , libraries , video shops (especially) , pharmacies , hospitals , buses , trains , work until the end of the emergency .
Lay in a supply of Tamiflu , Losartan , MSM , VitC , mult vits , tinned food .
Make sure your affairs are in order .
Have a portable radio(batteries) , torch , emergency cooking stove .
Pray .



The Safest place in the next century.

The Safest place in the next century.

Taking into consideration food-production changes due to global warming ( as per World Meteorological Organization) , Population pressures , water , Earthquakes , Hurricanes and Tsunamis , the safest place until 2100 by far will be

1 . Mid-Canada

At distant second is
2 . South mid-Argentinia
3 . South mid-Brazil

The worst place by far will be Mexico , followed closely by India , North Africa and the Middle East . Food production in these areas will fall by 10%-20% by 2020 (only 15 years from now) , then decrease even more sharply for Mexico , India/Pakistan and the Middle East towards the end of the century . Africa’s food production grows worse with time from the north toward the south .

These are classical recipes for volkewanderungs . Europe , Russia and China will be under intense pressure from India and the middle east , while there would be no stopper to African population movement toward the south . The USA will be a buffer between Canada and Mexico , while north-Brazil will buffer Argentinia and southern Brazil .

This is , of course , barring Super-volcano’s , asteroid strikes , singularities , etc .

Yours contemplating my suitcase