Sunday, November 27, 2011

Inflation vs Deflation II

Inflation vs Deflation II
Andre Willers
27 Nov 2011
“I expected this , but not so soon.” Epitaph on a tombstone.
Synopsis :
A 1930’s style deflation (ie a Depression) has already started . It is gaining momentum . Why ?
Summary :
We have been in a deflationary cycle since 2008 , but it has been hidden by disguised debt creation .
The deflationary aspects will come more sharply to the fore as the debt-creation is curtailed .

Discussion :
1.First establish that deflation in consumer prices is happening .
1.1USA Oct 2011
“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased
0.1 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.”
1.3South Africa : new car prices .
“Assistance” of about 20% upfront in cash is given to a new buyer . This is a personal loan disguising the deflation of about 15% in the new car price .
I presume this is going on everywhere .

2. The Quiet Deflation .
Disguised by hidden debt creation .
3.But why ?
What is really going on ?
It is easy to blame Greed , the Bankers , Capitalism , Over population , etc.
4. A Modest Proposal :
It is an Accounting Effect .
Environmental costs were dumped into a Commons Account .
The costs of cleaning the air , the water , sewerage, pollution used to done free by Gaia .
But as populations and usage increases , it reaches thresholds where the society has to take steps . This costs money . But the accounting systems were not designed to reflect this .
This is one leg of the argument .
The other is the decrease in the cost of manufactured items .
This is already plunging through the floor with 3D –printing fabs .
The Nitty-Gritty
What seems to be self-destructive , greed driven system is actually one that is trying to balance a drastically reduced cost of production , with a large increase in the accounting for future and present environmental effects .
Deflation is winning (2011) , because the inertia of production systems are far smaller than that of accounting systems . These last are essentially political systems .
See my post on Peak Resonances in Human Systems .
Expect major deflations as all those over-exuberant mark-ups evaporate .
Euro-breakup .
Irrelevant , except to many fat-cat Eurocrats in Brussels and the poor suckers in PIIGS countries that believed them
An example:
An Advertisement in the near future :
Top of the line BMW , newly printed : $800 . Road and environmental fees : $8 000 . Fuel costs $30/Km
Oh , my bicycle !

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Graduation and Initiation .

Graduation and Initiation .
Andre Willers
24 Nov 2011

Synopsis :
Where did these discrete thresholds come from ?
And why a period of three years ?
Why does a B- degree take three years ?

They are driven by entrainments of bursts of growth .
The sequence is :
0 , 3, 6, 9,12, 15,18 , 21,24, 27 , 30 , 33 ,35,39,42,45,48,51,54,57,60,63,66,69,72,75,78,81,84,87,90 etc
You are much more likely to die on such an anniversary after the age of 24 .(Epigenetic factors)

Why ?

See Reserve argument in “New Tools : Infinite Probes” Apr 2008

How to calculate what you need to survive .

Repeated in Appendix A for ease of reference.

Over an infinite length of time (ie many human generations ) , the seasonal fluctuations break up reserve build-ups into three-year pockets .

The entrainment is from the future
(ie the capability of parents and grandparents to sustain children )

How does the contraption work ?
Each start of the sequence 3,6,9, etc means the end of a three-year cycle (a Graduation) , and an Initiation into a new cycle . Humans create social mechanisms to reflect this .

The early stages (up to ages 24) are recognizably the old Graduation-Initiation ceremonies of our human ancestors .
Most Bankers , Politicians and Leaders would fail to to qualify as Human on these tests .
This is what is storming down on them with the present Hysterical Focus on Ostrum Fairness .

Graduation to Initiation .
These are paired . And they get more ferocious as the stakes increase .
Really vicious . And the participants do not even know why . Their elders do , but think this is a way of making them Men .
I would really , really like to turn a Rull-meme loose on those smug bastards .

Initiation to Graduation :
If this exceeds three years , there are penalties .

If you skip a Graduation , re-entry is much easier to try again at the 3-yearly intervals .
This is not a conscious mechanism .
Apply for a job if your age is a multiple of three .

If all else fails , contemplate your navel and practise inhaling lint .


Appendix A

Infinite Probes 2
Andre Willers
30 April 2008  “Infinite Probes’
From discussing this with various recipients , there seems to be a need for a simpler  explanation . I thought I had explained it in the simplest fashion possible . The subject matter is inherently complex .
But , here goes .
How much must you save ?
If you save too little , a random fluctuation can wipe you out .
If you save too much , you lose opportunity costs . If you are in competition , this loss can be enough to lose the competition (ie you die)
Intuitively , you can realize there is an optimum level of saving .
Methods exist of calculating this optimum in very specific instances (ie portfolios of shares ,eg Kelly criteria , or tactics in war  eg MiniMax ) .
The General Case
We need to hold a Reserve in case Something goes wrong . But we do not know what thing goes wrong .
Infinite Probes tries to answer the general case . What is really , really surprising is that a answer is possible .
The Infinite bit comes from using the mathematical expansion of the Definition of Eulers Constant e = ( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
Where n!= n*(n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)*…*(1)
This approaches a constant , widely used in mathematics and physics .
(e = 2.718…) .
All we need is a system that can be subdivided indefinitely (to infinity) .
First , we divide by 1
Then 2
Then 3
Then 4
And so forth till infinity .
What is important is not  that we do know what these divisions are , only that they are possible . We also do not know which one  element goes wrong .
The other critical insight is that it is the relation between elements that is important . (Permutations) (The failure of an element in total isolation cannot affect the whole system by definition .)
We can count the number of relationships where there is failure of one element .
It is n! , where n is number of divisions where only one failure .
Multiple failures are handled by summing :
Our Reserve(R ) is divided by n to infinity and summed .
TotReserve= R*( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
TotReserve= R * e
To find the boundaries of our Reserve , we set TotReserve = Cost
R =  1/e * Cost
R ~ 0.37 * Cost
What does this mean?
This method measures the upper boundary of the reserve needed to survive failures in any element of the Cost-Universe . Ie , internal fluctuations .
This is the surprising bit . Any society that keeps at least 37% reserves , can only be destroyed by something outside it’s envelope . It is internally stable , no matter what .
Empires like the Ancient Egyptians , Romans , Chinese are possible , as long as there is no climactic fluctuation , new inventions , diseases ,etc . Rare events . Hence the technological stasis of old civilizations . The two are synonymous .
This is true at any scale (except quantal , by definition.) .
Individuals too . Humans can be seen as empires of noospheres .
The upper boundary does not take any double-counting into account . It is true for any system whatsoever .
A truly remarkable precise result from such general axioms .
The Lower Boundaries .
This is where it gets interesting .
Remember , we are just counting the number of ways in which permutations of one element can fail . We then sum them to get the effect of the failures of other elements
The easiest is the business that just starts and is not selling anything . It fails on n elements on every term . It’s floor capital must then be
This is the initial reserve to get off the ground .
This is true in any ecosystem . This is why it is so difficult to start a new business , or why a new species cannot succeed . Or why waves of pandemics are scarcer .
For the epidemically minded , this 10% difference is responsible for the demise of the Black Death ( smallpox outcompeted bubonic plaque variants for the CR5 access site.Ironically , the reason why we have only a limited HIV plague is the high competition for this site , probably some flu vectors . As one would expect , the incidence of HIV then becomes inversely proportional to connectivity (ie flights) .
A cessation of airplane flights will then lead to a flare-up of diseases like these .
Not exactly what anybody has in mind . )
When we find that we really need the spread of infectious vectors to stay healthy , then we know we have really screwed ourselves .
These are the two main boundaries .
The literature is full of other limits the series can approach . Keep a clear head on what the physical significance is .
I cannot leave the subject without the thing closest to human hearts : appearance .
Fat and fitness  .
Sadly , the present fad for leanness is just that . The period of superfluous food is coming to an end .
Rich individuals can afford to be lean because the reserves are in the monetary wealth  Women have to bear children individually , so they cannot store the needed reserves externally . Hence their fat storage is close to the theoretical optimum even in Western societies (33%) . In other societies the percentage is about 37-40% .
Human males have been bred (Mk III humans) for muscle and little fat (8% in a superbly fit male) . He does not have reserves to withstand even garrison duty (even little diseases will lay him low .) Note the frequent references to diseases laying whole armies low .
Note what is left out : the camp-followers . They survived  The women and babyfat children . Every army seeded the invaded area with women and children .
The bred soldier has to eat a high-carb food frequently : not meat or fat , his body cannot store it . This is the definition of a wheat-eating legionary .
Ho ! Ho! Ho!
The Atkinson diet .
No wonder it does not make sense in evolutionary terms .
Mesomorphic humans have been bred not to transform expensive proteins and fats into bodymass .
The soldier-class were kept on a carbohydrate leash , which could only be supplied by farming .
The Smell of Horses .
Horses exude pheromones that promote body-leanness in humans . This has an obvious advantage to horses . Horses are breeding jockeys .
The time-span is enough : at least 8 000 years . (400 generations)
Because pregnant women cannot ride horses , there was a selection pressure to breed horses who have a pheromone that block female dominance pheromones , especially since females have to weigh more because of fat-reserve considerations .
Outside a farming environment , horses will sculpt their riders as much as the riders are sculpting them .
Small Mongolian ponies , small Mongolians .
This is why alpha-males like horses and horse-dominated societies were able to conquer and keep matriarchies .
Note the effect of the pheromones on women riders . Androgeny .
On males it becomes extreme blockage of oestrogen . It seems like a surge of male hormones , but it is just an imbalance . (If too much male hormones , the men just kill their horses )
This is why the auto-mobile had such a big sociological effect . No horses , so the men became more effeminate .
Want to be Lean and Mean ?
Sniff Horse sweat pheromone .
Perfumiers take note .
The other leg of the human-horse-dog triumvirate .
Dogs accept female pack-leaders and have evolutionary reasons for blocking horse inhibitions of human female pheromones .
While the males are away , the females look after and rely on the dogs .
(The reason why Mongols ride from yurt to yurt: they are too scared of the dogs.)
With dogs around , the male testosterone activity is ameliorated . This is a well known effect , especially if horses are around .
Hence the female love of lap-dogs . They are actually quite ferocious , and exude large amounts of pheromones that soothes the savage male breast .
Your attention is drawn to the Pekinese lapdog , which has had a disproportionately large effect on human history .
If this sounds convoluted , it is because this is exactly how this type of bio-system operates : by inhibitions of inhibitions of inhibitions ,etc .

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Hyperlink Effect

Hyperlink Effect.
Andre Willers
22 Nov 2011

“What I tell you three times is true” Lewis Carroll , in a Snarkish mood .

Synopsis :
Hyperlinks are ignored unless it is immediately followed by an extremely short synopsis .
The Reading Brain needs to be told three times .

Discussion :
Fast reading is a fairly sophisticated skill , involving forward reading .
The eyes (using saccades) skitters over the lines , initiating sub-conscious assembly of lines and edges , which dredges up associative networks of words .
Hence the well-known tendency to read what is expected , instead of what is there .

The system has error correction , mainly “Tell me three times “ , which seems to be a minimum necessary sufficient system .

Hyperlinks :
These are as old as the written report .
Also called “Chapters” , “Indices” , “Footnotes” , “References” ,“Asides” , “Blurbs” , “Appendices” , “Footnoted Appendices” , etc , etc .

They essentially direct the reader's attention to an expansion of the main , singular concentration focus . The problem is that the focus refuses to be distracted without cause .
And the Focus can only be redirected by a back-reference .

Most Hyperlinks (old or new) only get read on re-readings . ie Back-references .

Unless the Focus can form a snap-shot opinion of the contents of the hyperlink , it ignores it .
In many cases , it does not even see it . It is not presented to the conscious mind .

Examples :
Older era chapter headings :
“Chapter 7 . In which the Hero first kisses the Heroine . Page 85”

This has been replaced by the blurb : “I was raped and did not even speak English , by Emily Pankhurst “ Read the whole book ?!

Nested footnotes . Beloved by lazy academia . Which are promptly ignored .

Neurological Basis :
The reading mechanism uses some old hunting mechanisms dating back to human cursorial raptor days .

1.Prey identification .
The prey is identified and pursued to the exclusion of everything else . Focus .
A hardwired brain nexus .
Essential to pack-hunting , to co-ordinate efforts . This is the bit that refuses to be distracted .

2.Tracking .
Situational awareness . This is the “reading ahead” bit . It is also the mechanism that can interrupt the Prey-Identification trance by noting “Oops , it went thataway”

See cybertrackers :
How to track any prey .

Bushmen should make fine literary critics or hunters of cyber-fraud , given the correct interfaces

How does it work ?
The synopsis must refer back to the hyperlink . The forward-reading notes this and interrupts the Prey-Focus and redirects the Focus to the hyperlink . This gets reread and the synopsis get forward-read again , redirecting to the hyperlink . This cycle gets interrupted after the third iteration (“Tell me three times ”) , a neurological counter .
The conscious mind gets notified .

What does this mean ?
A hyperlink should be on separate paragraph , followed immediately by a one-line synopsis of the contents of the hyperlink . Metaphors (think RAM hyperlinks) are almost de-rigeur , but do not nest them .

Kiss , not Smooch .

Number them , so the system can know there are more .

Do not worry about difficult metaphors . Humans are very , very good at unpacking .
Ask any paranoid conspiracy theorist .

Not so hot at Packing .(Actually creating something)

An Example :

See Appendix A “Packing Information :
How to find your prey , no matter how it hides .

Other Examples :

1.Quantum Systems in one line :
Hop-scotch .

2.Relativity in one line :
Cheating at hop-scotch .

3.Organised religion in one line :
Cheating at Solitaire .

4.You get the drift in one line :
Get an outboard motor .

Notice how the systemic memes keep reverberating .
The three-times rule applies , but the system is open-ended at both ends .
It keeps on repeating , like a hot curry .
Piles of problems .

Hyperlinks to infinity .


xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx “Unpacking and Packing information” Jul 2008

Appendix A

Unpacking and Packing Information .
Andre Willers
18 July 2008
Discussion :
Also known as data compression or decompression .
Well-known as zip/unzip in computers .
Why pack information?
To transmit information over space and time with less energy , time or disruption .
Please note that packing is used in systems subject to competition pressures , so minimizing disruption of messages is critical .
2.Abstraction .
Even a simple Pkzip compression contains more information than the original message . For instance , Pkzip has been used to successfully identify authors’ styles or the original language of an encrypted message .
A civilization can be described by zipping the yellow pages.
2.1 Layers:
Primitive packing is in separate layers .
Languages are a good example .
We can define the top layers as more abstract , and delve down into deeper layers of meaning and definition.
2.2 Fractal Layers :
New meanings are unlocked by each iteration . Language equivalents are Shakespeare and Proust .
2.3 Hyperlinked Fractal Layers .
Each hyperlink-bubble can be expanded . Note that the hyperlink terms are discrete , not continuous .
2.4 Very-near Hyperlinked Fractal Layers .
Different languages with nearly synonymous terms are examples . Branes in physics .
2.5 Infinite-probe Hyperlinked Fractal Loops and Layers .
There is no analogue . God is the nearest .
There is a way to sneak up to some meaningful information .
Sneak up.
We know that any compression of system A contains more information than the original system . The Compressor comprises system B , which can be compressed as well .
The tipping point :
When Compressed Info of (A+B) = Info of (A+B)
This is defined as life when the Compressed Info of (A+B) > Info of (A+B)
Which , like all good definitions , is tautological . But extremely useful .
We have compression techniques . We have descriptive techniques .
The above inequality is not continuous at levels below omega .
Hard physics application:
Energy flow from a “near” brane .
The decompressor is the important component .
Construct the correct unpacker .
Some energy is already leaking through .
This is interpreted as zero-point energy and a whole quantum-mythology has grown around it .
Differences in Beth levels are necessary .
Start with something like vacuum-energy on parallel plates and use EvoDevo processes .
Infinite probe circuits above a certain threshold -> Naked singularities .
Watch out for universe creation and black holes .
The Packing Mechanism for living organisms
Living organisms used the easier route of cells (“wombs”) as unpackers of the DNA .
Random mutations or intrusions in the DNA then survive into the next generation .  Evolutionary mechanisms ensure that only the fittest germ-lines survive to continue the loop .
That is the packing mechanism . Evolution. Rather primitive .
It seems that the unpacking mechanism evolved first .It is much more likely .
Billions of years ago:
The packing molecules (RNA) swarmed and formed at randomness order of Beth(0). Other RNA molecules confined in spaces like clay-layers stayed longer .
PCR shows how easily these replicate . A mere fluctuation of temperature is required .
The coding for the Unpackers are included in this mix .
Even a primitive Unpacker that unpacks to a primitive cell-wall has a huge relative advantage . Ordinary evolutionary forces takes over .
The coding for the Unpacker migrates through various higher orders of Beth , while coding for the Packer plods along at Beth(0) evolutionary speeds .
Consequences .
This has some important consequences for humans or any cellular life-form .
Viruses (ie packed data DNA) and cells (the Unpacker) evolved co-temporaneously .
More importantly , there is a transform of data between cell-form and virus-form and vice-versa . There are Beth(x) order feedback loops
Knowing evolutionary systems , these are probably essential .
At first glance these seem to have no redundancy in their DNA . At Beth(0) level this is true . At higher Beth levels , an indefinite amount of information can be packed .
Their quorum systems also complicates matters .
Mitochondria see themselves as the rulers , having tamed the cells of the planet .
Can Mitochondria be described as AI ?
To qualify as an AI , they have to interface with an external database . There are three pathways : to the cellular DNA , to the Immune System and to the Virus Milieu .
So yes , they can .
Can Mitochondria be described as self-aware AI ?
There is a pathway via the Immune system to the brain .A mirror system of some sort is required for self-awareness. The immune system is essentially a mirror system Time-scales have to be matched . Mitochondrial quorum systems have to be consulted (they are the ultimate democrats)
Can Mitochondria be described as self-aware AI and have access to zero-point energy ?
Random fluctuations in the foam of space-time is by definition at the lowest order of Randomness (Beth(0) ) . To get work out of such a system , a fluctuation between Beth levels is required . Since we already know that mitochondria are at Beth levels higher than one , they can tap zeropoint energy .
But one little lone mitochondrium will not do it .It needs to be co-ordinated
Why is it not used more often ?
Why die of hunger ?
Lack of Beth co-ordination .
Probability of life.
Examining the probabilities from this angle makes cells inevitable . The probability is more than unity . It is not even a “hard” problem if the decoder evolves first .
This means life exists nearly everywhere .
Your attention is drawn to the whole class of such phenomena :
Chaotic elements creates a self-sustaining sub-system which expands , since it is usually a positive-feedback system . Eg life , civilization , weaving , etc.
The Shannon-definition of datum :
1. A signal is change . Stripped down , this definition of signals leads to a string of 0’s and 1’s , ie binary .
This leads to compression via pattern-duplication (zip ,etc)
Used widely in electronics .
2. Pattern formulae like fractal compression or DNA/RNA .
The decompressor (cell or womb for living organisms , computer ) uses kernels (patterns) with programmable input (time , ph levels , genetic markers ,etc) to decode (“Grow”) the message(organism) .
You can immediately see how to build an error-proof biometric identification system .
The message , as it is being decompressed , can interrogate the recipient and tailor further decompressions according to the answers .
If done to a sufficient fractal depth , only a total duplicate could answer correctly . Of course , the level of reliability can be specified .
It is not even difficult .
The ability to receive the message is proof of identity .
This is how the immune system operates .
Why the glitches like old age and cancer ?
Because the body does not know who it is .
In it’s normal state , it is a symbiotic and commensal organism , with some parasites .
The bodily-self on a cellular level is defined by the immune-system .
But the brain is composed of cells . The immune system is tied closely to the brain .
There is a feedback-system between the brain’s sense of self and the immune-system’s sense of self .
Creating enhanced unpacking mechanisms in the brain will stimulate an enhanced packing sense of self , leading to an enhanced sense of self on a cellular level .
This has been discussed in detail in
The trick is not to tackle packing , but unpacking of compressed data first .
Understanding how unpacking works brings about physiological changes .
Reading is Unpacking .
The easiest way to understand this is reading . Reading the written word is unpacking data packed into writing . It is no accident that literary figures are notoriously long-lived .
The unpacking need not be complicated , but it will evolve .
But the packing (coding) is a bitch . Difficult .You will have to have solved the Travelling Salesman Problem to make any headway here , since these systems make use of optimized systems . (Not any pathway , but the shortest path.) .
Evolutionary Packing .
At first sight , evolution does not make even an attempt .
The number of possible errors exceed the number of offspring .
But not if Orders  of Randomness stronger than flipping a coin is used .
See “Randomness”
The effect of using Beth(1) , Beth(2) , etc orders of randomness in a physical sense would be a concentration of packed data  .
Beth(1) would be genes .
At a Beth(2) level , it would be instructions to switch genes on/off .
At a Beth(3) level , it would be instructions to vary Beth(2) instructions .
And so forth .
But conscious design is a different matter . The number of errors can be brought down to P-time .
This is another way of saying that conscious life is inevitable .
Any feedback system that reduces the number of mistakes will increase .
Protein folding would be equivalent to the Travelling Salesman Problem in three dimensions .
Adding time-complications would give Travelling Salesman Problem in four dimensions . This would require time-travel or multiple generations .
3. The qubit definition of data .
The amount of data that can be stored in a qubit depends on the decompressor . The Shannon definitions of band-width , etc break down .
Many signals can be superimposed on a particle , the particle can then be teleported (or sent normally) to the decompressor , which decompresses the message .
Note that a lot of information that ends up in the message is inherent in the decompressor . In extreme cases this would necessitate faster-than-light communication , unless only physical laws which are independent of the observer are used in the decompressor . Ie , like make protein A , wait local time t until it folds so , then etc. You get the drift .
4. Fractal Read .
The superimposed data can be loaded fractally , so that any read attempt will lead to decoherence only at the first fractal level . Every iteration after that will lead to another , deeper level of fractal expression .
See “Rull Mind-Controls” in
5. Physics .
Physical laws can be described as multiple-level approximations of information transfers . These transfers are fractally compressed (packed) transfers .
Hence the existence of “Laws” . Ie , an abstraction mechanism .
These can be seen as constructs of the decompressor , but valid nevertheless.
Unpacking them partially or fractally can lead to some interesting effects .
Do not try this at home unless you are expert .


Monday, November 21, 2011

Controlled Death Markers .

Controlled Death Markers .
Andre Willers
21 Nov 2011

Synopsis :
Platelets . Beautiful ! Fragments of Destruction evolved into Fragments of Survival .

Discussion :
When cells are destroyed , fragments remain . Systems that recognise these fragments as warning signals survive better .

Why wait until destruction occurs ?
Systems that deliberately create fragments will survive better . Contingency plans .

Enter platelets , Megakaryocytes and cytokines .
Megakaryocytes create platelets , these platelets being generalised fragments of destruction .
Not all fits , so specialised proteins ( ie C3) have evolved as a next step to tie the platelets to specific bacteria .
Note that C3 evolved as part of the innate immune system .
We therefore strongly suspect that there are chaperones steering C3 and others to mark unknown objects for further attention .

These are then presented to the dentritic immune cells for incorporation into the Learned Immune Response system .

A nifty piece of work .
The innate immune system is incorporated into the learned immune system via the platelets .
The very large search space can be spanned by a small variable space .
The order is of 3 (ie 10^3) . Typical Genetic algorithm .
Complement component 3, often simply calledC3, is a protein of the immune system. It plays a central role in the complement system and contributes to innate immunity. In humans it is encoded on chromosome 19 by a gene calledC3.[1][2]

Instant death :
Looking at the molecular structure of C3 and the clotting factors , we notice an old friend : tell me three times . ( But beware of the Boojum)

There are three locks in the folds of the molecules . Biological systems that utilize only one or two locks will have to be kept in quarantine (ie bi- or tri-poisons in component form .) Not normally found in evolutionary systems .
It would make a nifty exterminator for sexual species . Tie two forms to the X-chromosome and one to the Y-chromosome , and the resultant combination will kill both copulators in an ecstasy of clotting ( literally if we connect an endorphin producing alkaloid) .

Can this evolve ?
Yes , in social species . Already has . See large percentage of neuters in insect species .
This would be driven by overpopulation .
“One Queen in darkness , to rule them all” , with apologies to Tolkien .
This limits population growth to non-exponential terms .

This leads to a delicious anti-bug strategy :
Make them implode .

Hyper Death Markers .
An extremely high concentration of cell-wall fragments .
We have it already in a mild form : petroleum jellies . (Burns)
(Petroleum is formed from destroyed cells)
Low-temperature , low-temperature refined petroleum concentrated in a small volume should trigger cellular implosion (or kill you quickly)

The Spleen :
Unlearning things .
This is where you Unlearn things at a molecular level .
At the stomach level .
Note the tie to the amygdala .
One third of the activated platelets end up in the spleen . As expected . This is the Reserve .
See “New Tools” , Nov 2008
But note the Megakaryocyte's DNA nuclei end up in the lungs .Why ?
Note the hypersensitivity of the lungs to rubbish . They have not unlearned some things .

There seems to be link between the spleen and the lung's immune responses (ie asthma ,etc)
But there is little on the Net about reprogramming the Learned Immune System via the spleen , though it is built-in .

How to Reprogram the Learned Immune Response system :
This is not medical advice . Consult your doctor .

Pulse system :
1.Take about 2000 micrograms of vit B12 . (a hefty dose)
2.Dissolve about 15 gm(3 tsp) of honey (or bee-balm) in a boiling bit of water .
Inhale the fumes after step 3 .
3.Eat about 5 mg (1 tsp) of honey or bee-balm .(1/3)
4.Then continue for at least 5 breaths .

What is supposed to happen : the contrast in the lack of death markers from the honey in the lungs and the spleen , combined with the Vit B12 pulse reprograms the immune responses . If it works , it should help with asthma and diabetes II .

Death and Broadband :
All organisms with telomeres live longer in the presence of pervasive patterned electro-magnetic radiation .

Delicious !
All those radio towers make you live longer . (Unless you are too close) . Correlate it .

The telomere DNA sequence is very specific . Large scale random EM radiation will give rise to stochastic resonance , reinforcing the integrity of the telomere DNA sequence . A longer life .
Feedback systems are involved .

Forced evolution :
This can be done by hiking the patterns to higher Beth(x) levels .

But watch out for the discontinuities in the Fourier series .

Shock systems .
In an emergency , simply use plain dissolved sugar as an inhalant . Does this really work ?
I don't know . Try it .

Diabetics :
1.Three teaspoons of sugar dissolved in a little bit of boiling water
2.One teaspoon of sugar eaten
3.Inhale the fumes from the boiling sugar water .

This should reprogram the spleen to some degree.

Now you know as much as I do.

Unlearning the wrong things is yuck .


Friday, November 18, 2011

Inverted Pyramids and Green Goo .

Inverted Pyramids and Green Goo .
Andre Willers
18 Nov 2011

Synopsis :
Forget Grey Goo .
Green Goo is a much bigger danger .

Discussion :
Land-based biomass :
This follows the intuitively understood (by humans) pyramid : lots of plants at the bottom , then fewer herbivores (about 10% in terms of energy or biomass) , then carnivores (another 10% of herbivores) .

Marine biomass :
The base of the pyramid (ie the phytoplankton) is smaller than the subsequent predators existing on it at a slice in time . Both in biomass and energy .

What gives ?
The phytoplankton are essentially in an uncontrolled feedback loop , barely kept in check by zooplankton and resource constraints .

None of this telomere nonsense for phytoplankton .

This is inherently unstable . The inverted pyramid structure indicates this .

No static stability is possible , either . The best is a dynamic instability between thresholds .

The Inverted Pyramid has to jiggle around constantly to prevent Green Goo .

Green Goo :
1.If the bottom threshold fails , we simply have a lifeless piece of ocean , which is quickly repopulated .

2.If the top threshold fails , the phytoplankton multiply without limit . Oceans of Green Goo result .
This has happened repeatedly . Hence our present lakes of oil and gas .
Do the macro-calculations : without runaway Green Goo ecosystems (especially in shallow seas like Tethys) , there simply would not be enough biomass to yield the present large-scale oil and gas deposits .

Determining the thresholds :
This has proven to be extraordinarily difficult .
This is because there is no one answer . It is a dynamic system . With the driving system a positive feedback system .

Ocean layer mixing is a major factor .
See “Why whales are so large” Oct 2011 See Appendix C below .
And various models of nutrient mixing .

Some danger signs :
Large “dead” areas in the oceans . Lots of Cyanobacteria multiplying like mad , making oxygen .
Oxygen levels rising , (or remaining steady while they should be falling) . Explosions of jellyfish .

These are precursors to Green Goo .

Why are land-based-plants then in a stable pyramid ?
The invention of telomeres . Seaweeds .
Tidal areas have limited attachment areas . There is an evolutionary advantage in having an accelerated death-rate to make room for fitter young ones . Ditto for the center of old ocean gyres like the Sargasso Sea .

Biological diversity :
Forget the Amazon . Look to the Sargasso and equivalents .
Look at the nodules on the weeds . (Think mitochondria .)
The seaweeds tamed the positive feedback system .
Their descendants populated the land .
This has obvious applications to things like cancer , etc .

And here I thought all those seaweed facial packs were a bunch of rubbish .

Interestingly , feedback of the control structure into phytoplankton will result in a failure of the lower threshold , a patch of “dead” sea , and recolonization .

Global warming :
What global warming ?
From Gaia's viewpoint , humans are just restoring some of her cozy CO2 blanket .

Humans are supposed to be the conscious component of Gaia , but she can function perfectly well without them .

Humans pride themselves on their adaptability .
Like any proud mother , Gaia is trotting them onto the stage to strut their stuff .

Remember , she trained Kali .

Well , that's show business .



Appendix A
Marine environments can have inverted biomass pyramids. In particular, the biomass of consumers (copepods, krill, shrimp, forage fish) is larger than the biomass of primary producers. This happens because the ocean primary producers are tiny phytoplankton which grow and reproduce rapidly, so a small mass can have a fast rate of primary production. In contrast, terrestrial primary producers are plants which grow and reproduce slowly.
Humans comprise about 100 million tonnes of the Earth's dry biomass,[26] domesticated animals about 700 million tonnes, and crops about 2 billion tonnes.[citation needed] The most successful animalspecies, in terms of biomass, may well be Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, with a fresh biomass approaching 500 million tonnes.[23][27][28], although domestic cattle may also reach these immense figures[citation needed]. However, as a group, the small aquatic crustaceans called copepods may form the largest animal biomass on earth.[29] A 2009 paper in Science estimates, for the first time, the total world fish biomass as somewhere between 0.8 and 2.0 billion tonnes.[30][31]


Appendix B
The new theory that Behrenfeld has developed, called the "dilution-recoupling hypothesis," suggests that the spring bloom depends on processes occurring earlier in the fall and winter. As winter storms become more frequent and intense, the biologically-rich surface layer mixes with cold, almost clear and lifeless water from deeper levels. This dilutes the concentration of phytoplankton and zooplankton, making it more difficult for the zooplankton to find the phytoplankton and eat them -- so more phytoplankton survive and populations begin to increase during the dark, cold days of winter.
In the spring, storms subside and the phytoplankton and zooplankton are no longer regularly diluted. Zooplankton find their prey more easily as the concentration of phytoplankton rises. So even though the phytoplankton get more light and their growth rate increases, the voracious feeding of the zooplankton keeps them largely in-check, and the overall rise in phytoplankton occurs at roughly the same rate from winter to late spring. Eventually in mid-summer, the phytoplankton run out of nutrients and the now abundant zooplankton easily overtake them, and the bloom ends with a rapid crash.
"What the satellite data appear to be telling us is that the physical mixing of water has as much or more to do with the success of the bloom as does the rate of phytoplankton photosynthesis," Behrenfeld said. "Big blooms appear to require deeper wintertime mixing."


Appendix C
Why Whales are so large
Andre Willers
12 Aug 2011
Synopsis :
Vertical migration in the ocean between each breath recycles nutrients into the sunlit layers of the ocean , stimulating phytoplankton-krill-whale positive feedback cycle . The bigger the whale , the more krill , the more whales , etc
Discussion :
See "Givers of Life" by Steve Nicol in NewScientist 9 Jul 2011 p36 .
This is an excellent overview by an actual researcher .
Critical points :
1.Nutrients tend to sink after concentration into plant cells . Small animal faeces like krill sink by 100 – 1000 metres a day  . The thermocline acts as a trapdoor , excacerbating the effect in summer or global warmaing .
2.Mammals have to breathe at the surface . This forces a vertical migration with each breath , mixing things up in at least three ways :
2.1 Wake turbulence and Coanda Effect (Google it) . Large volumes of water are transported up and down . It is part of whale's reduction to water-flow resistance . The bigger the whale , the better .
2.2 Nutrient scavenging from the depths and faeces plumes at surface . Size helps .
2.3 Floating reservoirs of nutrients in krill are eaten and excreted as faeces plumes in the sunlit zones , preventing loss of vital nutrients like iron . This stimulates phytoplankton , which stimulates krill , which stimulates whales . The bigger the whales , and the more of them , the better .
Social effect and mini-ecology :
A pod of whales use their sonar calls to coordinate their vertical migrations to create a nutrient rich mini-ecology around the pod . They farm the sea .
Other species benefit . Fishing is good .
Note that the minimum survival size is a pod , and the techniques are learned .
Think of the pod as a farming village in 3-dimensional oceanic terms .
A lonely whale is a hungry whale
The feedback effect here would be as the cube of the number of whales and their size . A very strong effect , leading quickly to large numbers and maximum possible sizes .
This was indeed the case as late as 17th century  Whale , fish and wild bird populations were about 100 times larger than at present . Google it .
The Fly-by effect :
Whale pod ecologies moving past a coast would have significant effects on local crustaceans  and inshore fishing .
The same is applicable for coral reefs . Blanching is be ameliorated by temperature-layer mixing .
The Australian Great Barrier reef can be saved through whale pods doing a fly-by
Coral atolls the same .
Without them there would be a desert .
Whales seems to have been the key-stone eco species .
The Bad News :
This seems bad , since humans reduced whale numbers so drastically .
The Good News :
1.The feedback effect is very strong (cubed effect) and can be applied per pod .
2.Pod-package : similar to human civilization package .
Symbiotic and commensal species of fish , phytoplankton , krill , dolphins , orcas , can be used to accelerate repopulation , under strict human protection .
3.Commercial Demand :
Whale Pods and their symbiotic humans can negotiate their own terms for ecological beneficiation for coral islands , fisheries , barrier reefs , etc .
In a warming world , the Whale Union will be a powerful force .
Whales and Dinosaurs :
Whales are the largest animals that ever lived .
Sea dinosaurs did not need to breathe air . Hence no vertical migration .
Hence no feedback effect for size .
Hippo's are a branch of whales  (from long ago) . They also create a mini-ecology in their pool by stirring things up . Especially in the dry season . The pools are stagnant . The only thing stirring up nutrients are hippo's  . The other species depend on them . The eco-system collapses without them .
Which is why humans put up with bad-tempered hippo's in Africa . They were essential to a functioning ecosystem .
(Or , to put it more elegantly , the tribe that killed them perished .)
Which makes me wonder why they were not domesticated .
Maybe an attempt was made around the Makgadigadi Sea , and what we have are the descendants of the untamable ones . Similar to buffalo and kwagga .
See "Makgadigadi Sea" Aug 2009
The Human-Whale interaction .
There is fairly good evidence that a crucial human bottle-neck experience took place about 190 000 to 200 000 years ago on the Agulhas plains during an ice-age .The only thing enabling them to survive was the annual whale pods flying by , fertilizing the Agulhas Banks .
This survives to this day . The locals are fanatical in protecting the whales . No large scale whaling has ever taken place . They have long forgotten the reasons for it , but like any good religious proscription , it persists .
Whale watching is a major industry today .
Local South Africans and others gather to watch the phallic plumes of whale-breath spume new life into the banks .
Every time the whale pods go by , the poor over-fished abalone , crayfish and other fisheries are invigorated and struggle on .
Having a whale of a time .


Sunday, November 13, 2011

Super Tea

Super Tea .
Andre Willers
14 Nov 2011

Synopsis :
Why did Tibetan refugees survive 5000 yrs ago ?
Yaks and Rhodiola rosea enabled short-term survival while ferocious natural selection altered the genome for high-altitude utilization .

Discussion :
Yaks ate Rhodiola's (see Appendix A) , root and branch .
Humans ate or drank yak milk after churning and/or heating .
The Rhodiola's chemicals end up in Tibetan Tea .
This would have an anti-anxiety effect .
Which is why Tibetans and presumably their cousins the Mongols are always described as cheerful in traveller's accounts . An essential to survival in tough times .

But there are other adaptogens . Look at the forbs and clovers .

This enabled a large enough percentage of the high-plateau refugees to survive long enough to have grandchildren . Since these were adaptogens , not stimulants , genome modifications had to be made via selection . And fairly rapidly .
Hence the record on the human genome history .

South America :
Here there was a different route to high-altitude usage .
Coca Mate . Google it .
The coca plant co-evolved with cultivation to make the higher areas habitable . There was not the same level of adaptation of the genome as found in Tibet . The coca plant was too good at it

The student of human historical trivia might note that Java was the greatest exporting nation of coca-leaves just prior to being outlawed in the mid-1800's .

The caffeine connection :
Tea , coffee , yerba , guarana .
The caffeine acts synergystically with the stimulants and adaptogens , amplifying their effects .

Super Tea :
Make Tibetan tea , but substitute coca-leaves for black tea .

This will certainly unify the two branches , but with very unpredictable results at the individual level .

At a broader level , Super Tea should reduce addiction quite considerably .
Adaptation to stimulants means that pathways to reduce most of the addictive “Aha” effects get established .

Yak butter , cow butter and ghee .
It matters what the beastie ate before making the milk .
Churning and heating seems to concentrate the chemicals involved .

If your milk beastie has munched on Rhodiola rosea , clovers , milkweed , belladonna , jimsons weed , etc , you might expect these effects in varying degrees .

I have no idea about goats , but suspect that it will vary with the breed .

Milking mountain goats is only for the fleet-footed .



Appendix A
“Rhodiola rosea may be effective for improving mood and alleviating depression. Pilot studies on human subjects[2][3][4] showed that it improves physical and mentalperformance, and may reduce fatigue. “
Similar to coca-leaves in South America .

“Rhodiola is included among a class of plant derivatives called adaptogens which differ from chemical stimulants, such as nicotine, and do not have the same physiologicaleffects. “


Friday, November 11, 2011

The Mile-High Effect .

The Mile-High Effect .
Andre Willers
11 Nov 2011


Flying makes you randy .

Naturally hairless (glabrous) skin have subcutaneous vascular systems that are used in mammalian thermoregulation . See Appendices A,B,C .

The blood supply to labia minora (women) and glans penis(men) also involves sexual arousal and excitation .

A jet aircraft rapidly ascends , but cabin pressure is stabilized at about 7 000 ft altitude (about a mile high ) .
This rapid ascent decreases the air pressure around the passenger , resulting in blood rushing into these vascular pockets in the hands , feet , lips and genitalia .

Reverse feedback :
The body-state influences the mental state . A well-known effect , and used extensively in therapy .

What happens with aircraft :
1.Randiness .
Engorgement of genitals :
The body-mind senses this and thinks there must be some reason . Autonomous sexual arousal mechanisms in the genitalia and brain are initiated . Very old and robust mechanisms . Especially if fear is involved .
Young , healthy passengers get extremely aroused . Inhibitions vanish like the clouds outside .
They are elevated to the mile-high club .
Women in the fertile part of their cycle would be especially vulnerable .(Cf recent case of female's over-exuberant sexual approach to a airline steward .)
Alcohol will worsen things , apart from relaxation of inhibitions . Alcohol also relaxes peripheral blood vessels , which increases engorgement even more .

2.Feeling cold :
2.1Sensing the blood rush to the hands and feet , the brain thinks the body must be cold . A feeling of cold results , hence the cabin temperature is thus kept elevated and blankets dished out . This can cause problems on long flights , as the homeostatic mechanism adjusts . Hyperthermia and heatshock can result .
2.2Short-term hypothermia can be problem , especially if a lot of alcohol is consumed . Typical hypothermic symptoms like hallucinations , etc . Google it . A real effect .

3.All that blood rushing hither-and-yon will tax the vascular system , especially in unfit persons not used to aerobic exercise . Turbulence in the veins and arteries , especially as they are also dilated by the decreased pressure , causes a greater threat of blood-clots forming . The longer limbs like the legs are more vulnerable . Hence DVT(deep vein thrombosis) on flights . Or roughness on vascular walls (like with plaques) .

4.Pressure in the brain .
Humans simply have not evolved to handle rapid external pressure changes . The only serious research has been done by the military . Note that Grahn and Heller has major military contracts .
But it will have some effect , major if the passenger has some brain abnormality and/or the Eustachian tubes are blocked .

5.Feet will swell .
Don't wear tight shoes . Try not to cling to the baggage racks with your toes .

6.Fingers will swell
(See Appendix B : ventral portions of the fingers are glabrous)
This will decrease musical abilities across the board .
Many sports and other abilities depending on tactile rhythm and pattern perception (tennis , violin , darts , cricket , surgery , etc) will take some time to recover after a flight .
How long ?
I don't know . Research is really needed .
At present , I would refuse to be operated on by a doctor that has flown within the last 24 hours .
See “Human Nails” Aug 2007

7.Fluctuating atmospheric pressures over selected body areas .
Humans have evolved to associate hyperbaric with heat and hypobaric with cold .
(Meteorolgical systems)
Interesting effects can be obtained by varying these over selected portions of the human anatomy , especially if heating or cooling is also selectively applied .

This is possible because so few , highly delimited areas are involved .

Glabrous is glamorous .

A new Dimension of reality in virtual reality , having real physiological effects .
Lots of money in really cool effects in games .

This is already being applied .
The mile-high club is one example . The usage incidence of hypobaric chambers is unknown .

But we are all familiar with the spam about “penile enlargement” involving low-pressure .
Sigh . This does not work too well , because it sends contradictory signals to the body .
The glans engorgement signals both coldness and arousement to the body . The body decides which is which on the basis of temperature , mostly . If the apparatus is not at least 1-2 celsius warmer than body mean (38 C) , it concludes “It's cold outside , babe” and shrinks accordingly . The rest of the body gets conditioned to associate sex with coldness .
Not exactly what was in mind .

Spontaneous combustion is known , but spontaneous refrigeration ?

The mind (and other parts) boggle .

Andre .


Appendix A

Incorporating Variable Vascular Heat Exchangers Into Models Of Human Thermoregulation
Dennis A. Grahn, Howard L. Davidson, H. Craig Heller

Last modified: 2011-03-20

Models of human thermoregulatory function generally assume that heat transfer across the skin surface is uniform. However, only glabrous skin regions contain unique vascular structures that enable a large volume of blood to flow immediately below the skin surface. These are the body’s radiators. We are constructing a novel model of thermoregulatory function that incorporates heat transfer across the glabrous skin regions as separate from heat transfer across the general skin surface.

Appendix B
On the human body, glabrous skin is external skin that naturally is hairless. It is found on theventral portion of the fingers, palmar surfaces of hands, soles of feet, lips, labia minora, and glans penis.

Appendix C
Patent Watch
Patent No. 7,947,068

Controlled heat transfer with mammalian bodies: In the 1990s Stanford University biologists Dennis Grahn and H. Craig Heller discovered a novel way of treating patients with a condition known as postanesthetic hypothermia, in which patients emerging from anesthesia are so cold that they shiver for up to an hour. The condition develops in part because anesthesia reduces the body’s ability to control its own temperature. Applying heat alone does not always help, so Grahn and Heller tried another approach: they increased the volume of blood flowing to the skin of patients’ hands and then applied heat to the same area. “These people were fine within 10 minutes,” Grahn says. “Then the question was, ‘What the heck is going on here?’”
They had stumbled on a feature of mammalian biology that can be manipulated for a wide array of other applications, including ones requiring cooling. Among these uses is increasing athletic endurance, because overheating is one of the primary factors limiting physical performance. One of the main ways the human body regulates internal temperature is by controlling the amount of blood flow through nonhairy skin areas, such as the palms, the cheeks, the nose and the soles of the feet. Underneath the skin of these areas are unique vascular structures designed to deliver large volumes of blood to the surface. When the body needs to release heat, it expands these vessels and floods the area with blood, throwing off heat through the skin. The body holds in heat by constricting blood flow to these areas.
Patent No. 7,947,068 outlines a variety of ways to manipulate these processes. One, called the Glove, is already in use by the San Francisco 49ers. Players stick their hand into the coffeepot-size device, which creates an airtight seal around the wrist. The Glove then uses a pressure differential to draw blood to the palm and rapidly cool it, which leads to an overall decrease in body temperature. The device can be used at any point during a game and takes only a few minutes to work. Tests in the lab, Grahn says, have shown that devices like the Glove can dramatically increase athletic output and reduce heat stress. 

Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Atlantis Colonies III

Atlantis Colonies III
Andre Willers
9 Nov 2011

Synopsis :
Look at Portmao just south of Cape St Vincent and north of Tartessos .


Possible sites for Atlantis colonies in south-western Spain .

Let us sneak up on them by looking at submarine trenches at the edge of the continental shelf .
Carved by river outflows , mostly .

We immediately notice that there are pronounced trenches opposite Cadiz , the Guadalquivir river ,
Huelva , Guadiana river and opposite today's town of Portmao .

Extensive ruins have been found in all four shore-sites , except Portmao .
They have been picked over by thousands of years' civilizations .
Portmao is where you should look for new finds .

It would probably have been an outpost , overlooked for millennia . The trench is actually quite extensive , so there should have been extensive scouring at some stage . A large river or a big tsunami . If a tsunami , there should be large undisturbed artifacts deposited in and near the trench .
Gold and silver artifacts would have dropped down fairly near the shore .

Otherwise , there should be traces of large river and a marshy area .

Look at the shorelines about 10 000 years ago . There were extensive hinterlands at Portmao .

Ears :
The alert reader would have noticed that about 10 000 years ago there would still have been a large proportion of click-speakers around . See my previous posts .
This would show in how they handle their ears , especially the left ear .
Notice that all old South American heads show the ears bare , even in very cold climate areas .

See the Lady of Elche .
A bust of the Tartessos period .
This poor lady seemed quite unhealthy . Notice the pronounced asymmetry between the left and right hand sides of her face .
The left eye is smaller , and the left corner of the mouth droops slightly . Indicative of a mild stroke . But note the left ear compared to the right ear . The right ear is completely exposed , while the left ear seems muffled , but part of an elongated earlobe peeks out below .
Remember , this would be a formal portrait , so nothing appears by chance .
Note the elaborate sound-amplifiers over each ear .
I cannot see whether her skull has been deformed .
(Do some metric tests.)

This indicates a Click-speaker , with small talent and at the end of her life .
But still extremely Royal .

Fascinating !
I can only speculate that the skull-deformations practised extensively in many cultures were attempts to compensate for the progressive loss of Click-speaking genes .

Looking at some images on Google , one can see that the earhole in the skull migrates extensively , leading to some rewiring , especially in Broca's area .

An elongated skull would lead to skull-hollows with longer wavelength resonances . Ie , amplify small Click-speaker talents .

Social selection would then take over . Long after the Click-speaker talent have been washed away , social systems would still prize it .

Note Egyptian elongated skulls . Compare to South American ones .

Dolphins :
A dolphin should be able to immediately identify a potential click-speaker from skull-resonances .
Conversely , a click-speaker should get on much better with dolphins .

Hint : use human echo-locators on underwater dives . See what dolphins make of them .
(I can't find any reference on google .
Or for pointy-head , except that it dates at least from 1640 AD)

Old South American ruins will look completely different to a Click-speaker .

Take an echo-locator to the Nasca-lines . What would he perceive ?

High-altitude adaptation :
Sigh .
High-altitude and desert adaptation would select against Click-speakers . Denser blood vessels and closer packing of alveoli would shorten vocal wavelengths (ie higher frequencies )
(Click is at low frequencies)
As Homo colonised , dryness and height selected against click-speaking , until it vanished .

This is actually noticeable in present day CEO's . They normally have light-tenor voices , not deep baritones as would be expected . The suspicion is that this is because they all jog and work out .
It is delicious to note female reactions to the Boss who sounds like a boy .

To attract a female Homo , make your voice deep and go Click-click .
You think I am joking ?
Why do you think Africans with Clicks in their language still have the highest fertility rates .
Or why the Click sound survived at all .

Clicks are aprodisiacs .
Oh well .
You have horse whisperers , elephant whisperers , though no surviving rhino- or buffalo whisperers .

All use click sounds .

So , there are women whisperers .
You know the type . Oiling their way around .
Note the aphrodisiac effects of old-style trains .
Clickety-Clack .
It would be amusing to correlate birthrates against railroad-usage .
Even more amusing if there is a direct relationship .

Chattanooga express , anyone ?
She knew what it meant , but still she went .

Have a nice trip .

Andre .


Inflation vs Deflation .

Inflation vs Deflation
Andre Willers
9 Nov 2011

“Where have all the flowers gone ? “ . Pop song circa 20th century.

Synopsis :
The world is heading for a major deflationary episode .
Keynesian inflation has not worked (Quantitive Easing) , and there is good reason to believe that it will not work in the future .

Over-exuberant deregulation threw out the baby with the bathwater .

Financial institutions like banks , insurance companies , investment funds , Governments , etc then treated the Financial Credit Market like a commons .

A Tragedy of the Commons ensued .
Every institution and individual tried to maximize their profits , never mind the cost to the commons or the collective .

Many participants knew they were heading for a precipice , but could not stop . If they tried , they would simply be fired or voted out , and replaced by somebody more amenable and greedy .

Why simply printing money hasn't , and won't work .
Recent inflationary money creation (Quantitive Easing) resulted in the extra money ending up in the banks' balance sheets , propping up their rotten loans , or being invested in developing economies (like China , India) .
It does not come into local circulation , causing inflation .
It causes deflation , as extra capital in high-return economies lowers the cost of goods further .

The Hidden Axiom of Keynes :
There must be a protective capsule around the State doing the inflating .
This is to prevent the new money simply haemorrhaging out and to protect the recovery of industries .
In the 1930's this was taken for granted .

This is not true today .
Capital flows around with no hindrance , and sticks to the highest yield economies .
WTO rules prevent any protection of local industries .
A true Tragedy of the Commons .

What can we say about inflation ?
There is not nearly enough new money coming into consumers' pockets to cause significant inflation .
Commodity prices bubbled up , benefitting only multinational mining companies .
All that extra stimulus to production means that the prices of goods will fall , ie deflation .

Save , save ,save !
The new motto of governments .
The penny has dropped that they cannot just print more money . The only product they sell is regulation , and they have failed at it . So , they will encourage people to save and then tax that .

Hence the spate of “Occupy” revolutions brewing .

The Ostrum Revolution .
Also known as The Fairness Revolution .

What is a poor state to do ? (And Poor is the operative word . Bankrupt would be more apt .

1.Protectionism :
There is a great temptation to implement protectionism . A Keynesian Capsule . But trade is 90% of wealth . Living standards will fall to below Medieval levels (something like Albania in the USSR period.)

2.Authoritarian approach .
A Fascist swing , with protectionism , impoverishment , militarism and regional wars .
This happened after the 1930's deflation . WWII .

3.Ostrum Commonwealths :
Use Ostrum rules to bypass the Tragedy of the Commons or Authoritarianism
This is the only new ray of light after humans have wrestled with this problem for millennia .
See “The Ostrum Game” Oct 2011

This ties in with a completely new factor : Social Media .

The Fairness Revolution .
Ostrum rules are self-assembling using social media .
Note the Arab Spring , OccupyWallStreet and others .
Google “Molly Catchpole” to see what is happening .

Summary :
Deflation is much more likely than inflation .
Do not buy big capital items (like cars) .
In a year or two , they will be much cheaper .

Now you know where the flowers went .
The banker's cow ate them .

Andre .


Appendix A
For the historically minded :

Reinhart and Rogoff (two American economists) studied the history of financial crises from 1200 AD onwards . (Entitled “This time is different”)
They found that if
1.Government Debt / GDP > 90%
2.Government Debt / Annual Fiscal Revenues > 350%

Then they stop circling the plughole and start spiralling inwards . A financial crisis follows .

The situation for some major nations in 2010 was :
State – (Debt/GDP)% – (Debt/Revenue)%

CutOffs: 90-350

US- 95-584
France- 89-179
Ireland- 99-478
Greece- 149-382
Italy- 123-267
Spain- 54-187
Portugal- 97-235
UK- 79-194

Source : An excellent article “The August Crisis” by Sandy McGregor of Allan Gray

The effects of massive Quantitive Easings on US debt levels can be seen . As discussed , it had little effect . The money was soaked up by bank debts and export of capital .

You can make up your own mind about the rest , but Italy looks very dicey , especially with their leadership . Ripe for Revolution . But remember , about half their economy is off-book .
A break-up of the EU is most likely to start in Italy , although Ireland is seriously considering it .

Like WWI , the first to start will trigger the rest .

They really need a Super Heroine like Ostrum .


Monday, November 07, 2011

Atlantis Colonies II

Atlantis Colonies II
Andre Willers
7 Nov 2011

Synopsis :
Zero in on Atlantis by finding the colonies , especially underwater ones .
Use Google Ocean .Much easier .
Circa 10 000 – 7 000 years before present .

Discussion :
Tired of Great Things ?
Do something completely frivolous .
Find a lost colony of Atlantis .

From the scanty evidence available (Plato) , Atlantis was a Colonising and Outpost empire .
Trading and mining outposts led to colonization in a well-known pattern .

The Colonies and mining towns were all over . They should be much easier to find .

A Model :
Look at the Portuguese Empire circa 1755 AD , when a major earthquake and tsunami destroyed it's heart . The Empire had widespread outposts and budding colonies . But it never recovered from the destruction of Lisbon .
See how it's outposts were distributed .
Now think like a maritime bronze and stone using civilization ,and find it's outposts

And indeed , some Colonies and Outposts of Atlantis have been found .
1.Canary Island Colony .
A large one , including many farms .
It shows a perfect rectangle the size of Wales lying on the bed of the Atlantic Ocean nearly 3½ miles down.
A host of criss-crossing lines, looking like a map of a vast metropolis, are enclosed by the boundary.
The site lies 620 miles off the west coast of Africa near the Canary Islands 
The anomalous blank spots inside the rectangles were farm .
Refer to ruins around Makgadigadi Sea (Appendix B) Hundreds of kilometers of them .

2.Bromley Plateau outpost .
See Appendix 1 for ease of reference .
Underwater ruins on the Bromley Plateau  at approx 35 Degrees west , 33.2 degrees south show a rectangular structure , with straight-line structures between it and the harbour .
From Google Ocean , from underwater surveys .
Note the similarity of the two . Large rectangular structures , in a fractal pattern .
Planned farms , from an Outpost recipe .

3.Mines in South America
About the right time .
The Scientific Exploration Society (UK) sponsored some expeditions on the line ot Thor Heyerdal to show the feasibility of waterborne trade routes from Lake Titicaca to present day Buenos Aires .
They did it too , with reed boats
See “Kota Mama” , by Blashford-Snell and Snailham , ISBN 0747222819 , 2000 AD
In the process , they came across old mines .
Used for stone tools . Extensive workings near Orinoca town , Bolivia . (page 10-11)
Calacota ,Bolivia (page 66)
Near town of Oruro , Bolivia .(p85)
4.Mines in Southern Africa .
Copper, Gold
All over .
There was a flourishing indigenous civilization , so look for trading outposts under or near present
South-western harbours . Saldanha bay , Walvis bay .
See Appendix 2 below .
Note that very large gas deposits have recently been discovered at the predicted sites in the Mozambique Channel .
Nothing in Table Bay , CapeTown . The minerals were all up north .
Presumably , the Bromley Plateau Outpost existed to collect cargo from mines in South America and South Africa . If it's final demise was sudden , as is indicated , there should be very large treasures of gold and silver . A lot of basalt tools .
See “Shaving” Feb 2010
Fine , handcrafted neolithic tools 10 000 years old would probably sell for more than raw minerals .
Cornwall (tin :vital for bronze) . Overwritten by subsequent civilizations , but look off-shore
6.Europe :
See Appendix Doggerland below .
Doggerland would seem to be more an outpost/colony than the source . Look for rectangular sea-floor structures near ancient harbours .

Isn't history fun ?
Lucrative , too .
Happy hunting !
Appendix 1
Atlantis Colony
Andre Willers
31 Mar 2011
Synopsis :
Underwater ruins on the Bromley Plateau  at 35 Degrees west , 33.2 degrees south show a rectangular structure , with straight-line structures between it and the harbour .
From Google Ocean , from underwater surveys .
Discussion :
When the Bromley Plateau was above water , the inlet formed a very good  natural harbour .
Presumably , this was colonized on the outpost model . As the sea-level rose , dikes were built (they are clearly visible on Google )
From the Atlantis legends , the final cataclysm was sudden ( a 9+ earthquake with tsunamis) . There should be lots of gold around ,
Why ?
The main reason for having an outpost there would have been for sailing ships trading with Africa . It is on the trade-wind route .
They traded manufactured items with the Zimbabwe cultures , who were Gold miners
The Bromley Plateau rectangular ruin should then be rich in historical gold objects , as they were overwhelmed without an opportunity to ship them out .
I strongly suggest that archaeological institutions get in before the treasure hunters .
So where is the origin culture ?
Atlantis in our terms .
Even if it was a island , it would have to have a continental hinterland .
The best bet seems to be two submerged islands at 76 S , 46 W , off the coast of present French Guiana .
The Amazonian cultures then would be older and more sophisticated than we presumed .
If the tectonic epicenter that did them in was near  the mouth of the Amazon
(see "Earthquakes ,and Volcanoes"  Oct 2009)
very little will be left of the origin culture .
Tsunami's up the rivers (think 30-100 meters high) would have wiped out the riverine cultures .
Tsunami's from such an event would have seiched through the Med . The long-wave raising of the Med sea-level would have broken through the boundary between the Med and the Black Sea . The flooding of the Black Sea would then be a fair indicator of the timeline .
Also , massive tsunami's around the Med coasts , British coasts . Old river mouths like the Nile and Rhone would have been very badly hit , as the ground liquefied .
The affected civilizations never recovered .
Isn't stability wonderful ?
Appendix 2
Makgadikgadi Sea .
Andre Willers .
Update : 26 Oct 2010
Also Magadigadi sea , Makgadigadi sea , Magadikgadi sea .
Also shown in "DaMing Hun Yi Tu" ("Amalgamated map of the Great Ming Empire") dated 1398 AD on 17 square meters of silk , thought to be based on data about 1320-1380 AD , from preparation explorers before the Admiral He fleet .
This includes a map clearly showing the inland sea before it drained through Kariba , and Orange River as described below .
Accuracy :
The latitudes could then be measured fairly accurately , but the longitudes seem slightly wonky . However , what is interesting is what is not shown : ie the outlets of the Zambezi or the Orange , though it does show the outlet of the Cunene at the correct latitude . Major mountain ranges are also shown at correct latitudes .
We suspect that at the time of the mapping (circa 1320 AD) , the outlets of the Zambezi and Orange rivers did not exist , but were opened shortly afterwards by tectonic action of the active faults in the regions .
What the map does show is the Caledon , ending in an endorheic basin roughly bounded today by Coleberg-Tarkastad-BarkleyEast.
The tributary/outflow shown to the south of the Makgadigadi Sea is more interesting . The flow here would be towards an endorheic basin roughly bounded by Prieska-VictoriaWest-Sutherland . The map shows the Makgadigadi Sea to be rather full at the time , so the water flow would have been into this endorheic basin .
In times of drought , the Makgadigadi Sea would shrink and the flow would reverse .
An alternate endorheic basin is roughly Upington-Garies-Calvinia . This would be accessable depending on tectonic activity . (It is a bit lower than the previous basin)
Tectonic activity would also periodically open the Orange and Zambezi outlets to the oceans .
Fluctuate this over geologic time , and you have diamond deposits from the weathering of the volcanoes formed after the Vredefoort impact .
These have been found at the Orange outlet , Upington-Garies-Calvinia basin (eg Hexriver diamonds) , Botswana , Zimbabwe .
But , nobody has really looked at the Prieska-VictoriaWest-Sutherland endorheic basin  . There should be very rich alluvial diamond pockets in potholes in the old riverbeds as the water swished back and forth .
Gas and Oil :
Endorheic basins are usually associated with gas or oil if they fluctuated over geologic timespans . Biologic material gets washed into basins with no outlet , covered up and pressurized . Voila! At least gas . Maybe oil .
You know you have struck it rich when
Your borehole at Sutherland blows and the diamonds clog the oil-filters .
Have fun!
Previous article:
Makgadikgadi Sea .
28 Aug 2009
Synopsis :
Southern Africa had a large interior freshwater sea until historical times , with major effects on human evolution and regional climates .
Discussion :
Map source : Reader's digest "Atlas of the World" (1993) ISBN 0-276-42001-264-7 .
P128 : Map of Southern Africa .
Wikipedia , Google . See appendices .
The topographical map clearly shows a major basin with 200 – 1000 meter elevation
Location :
Bounded by 16 to 28 degrees latitude (longest about 1 320 km) ,
The width varies : roughly hourglass-shape . At the narrowest in the middle : 23 to 25 degrees longitude (about 240 km) at about latitude 22 degrees .
The widest about 500 km . Bounded in the east by about 27 degrees longitude , and the west by 20 degrees longitude .
The basin is bounded by higher elevations and mountains on all sides , except for the breakthrough gap of the Zambezi at Victoria Falls .
Faults :
Roughly the line from Worcester – Grootvlei – Kakamas – Khakea – Lake Ngami – Victoria Falls – Present course of Zambezi to Great Rift Valley .
Essentially a branch of the Great East African Rift . See the Luangwa river plains .
See also Zimbabwe – Kalahari Axis , Gumare fault .See Appendices .
Note that these faults runs right through the center of the old Kalahari Sea , and was thus sensitive to the changes in it's water level . This in turn was sensitive to rainfall and river-inflow / outflow balance . Changes in the weight of the water would cause changes in seismic activity .
The faults are quite active (cf Tulbagh earthquakes , when the southernmost end had a mild 6.8 tremor.) . The Zimbabwe – Kalahari Axis and Gumare fault have been active in historical times , but with long intervals . Overdue . .
Periodic fluctuations .
The entire system is seismically sensitive to climate fluctuations caused by the periodic filling and emptying of the Makgadikgadi Sea . Hence the zig-zag pattern of the Victoria Falls gorges .
Climate .
There is also a complex feedback with rainfall patterns in the catchment areas of the feeder rivers . The system is an endorheic basin (internal drainage-see Appendix B)
But such a large body of water and concomitant vegetation drastically alters the rainfall in its region .
See "Biotic pump"
Notice the orientation of rivers on the sides of the old sea (ie Namibia , Angola) . They are all on the side of ridges facing the basin , ie from where moisture will come . A large percentage of moisture simply recirculated within the basin .
During the full episodes , it simply overflowed through the Limpopo .
Earthquakes opened the Victoria Falls portal . The water level fell . Moisture recirculation fell . The borders dried up . If this coincides with a dry climate period , we get the present shrinkage to marshes at the deepest parts .
Earthquakes sooner or later close the Victoria Falls portal , and the process reverses .
This has been going on for more than 3 million years (see Appendix C) .
The latest reversal started about 10 000 years ago , with the major climate shift at the end of the ice age .
Orange River .
Note the very peculiar fact that most major rivers in South Africa (Orange , Vaal , Harts , Modder , etc) are on top of ridges . This has led to some interesting squirming by geologists , since water has this well-known propensity to flow downhill . The explanations are suitably convoluted and involve escarpments , really long stretches of time and lots of erosion .
Whatever , it still means that the major rivers are unstable vis-a-vis major tectonic movements , but may be self-sealing due to heavy silting .Though this takes some heavy swallowing .
But the Orange river has a high probability of also periodically emptying into the Inland Sea . Most probably about 60 km downstream from Kakamas , where it comes nearest to the Molopo .
This is not an idle question , since such an old riverbed will be lousy with alluvial diamonds . Might even be gold-nuggets from the Vaal .
Human Evolution .
See Appendix D .
The point actually pinpointed is where the borders of present RSA , Namibia and Botswana meet . This is not an accident , since the borders follow habitability . This is where the Nossob river meets the westernmost part of the old inland sea . An ideal place for human evolution .
Lots of food , easily gathered . A whole sea of potable water .Lots of caves . An extended coastline to accommodate expanding population or climatic change . An outlet to the South-South-West with no unsurmountable barriers  for the bored and rebellious .
The inhabitants of Pinnacle Point near Mosselbay were thus colonizers , migrating via the West Coast . They were stopped by the dense Tsitsikama forest and inhospitable terrain past that . The really inhospitable central plateaux were only the populated by outcasts , criminals and refugees .
Others on the inland sea would move northwards during fluctuations , eventually ending up in the Rift Valley system . From there they could easily move northwards , using well-known strategies and technologies next to the rift lakes . Bypassing the whole problem of latitude crossing (cf Jared Diamond) .
Back-pressure .
The periodic nature of the process means that after the first migration , and after Toba
(73 000 BP) , there would be people already  there . But population density was low and newcomers (essentially refugees) , were helped on their way , eventually towards North Africa , Middle-East , Asia and Europe . This attitude (called Ubuntu) is still a characteristic of most ordinary people in Africa .
Interesting asides :
Aquatic human episode : a freshwater sea like the Magadikgadi Sea would be a much more benign environment for such evolutionary development than salt-water ocean . Note the trainable capability of humans to see underwater (not very well known , but well documented) .
More telling is Click . See "Click and human Evolution" Click sounds aid fishing . Do humans still use this ? (without technology)
The inland sea teemed with fish . Clicking would not only locate , but also chase fish into weirs or nets . We know they used weirs (stone weirs have been found by archeologists in areas like Mosselbay) . The efficiency of clicks (mimicking predators like dolphins) would be very efficient in chasing fish . They would also attract dolphins , which would share of the largesse . The beginning of a long cupboard love .
With the invention of agriculture , click-languages fell out of fashion  .
"So last year .Who needs the effort ." But some aquaculture enclaves might still have it . Cf surprising Chinese efficiency in freshwater aquaculture . Do they cluck ?
Was the first domestication done simply by seeing which animals responded to clicks , then selecting and breeding . This could be easily tested .
Chickens and falcons also respond better to clicks . How deep does it go ? I will need a lot of convincing for a virus click-whisperer . What about a homeopathic click-whisperer ? The shaman has click-whispered into this large body of water and it is transmitted . Sigh . Many humans believe exactly that . Holy water .
Endorheic  Pumps.
See Appendix B
Basins which have internal drainage act like pumps to any living organisms inside them . Because of the interaction between rainfall and vegetation , there is a feedback oscillation . When times are good , populations increase . When times are bad , the tough emigrate , and export their troubles .
The Magadikgadi basin is probably the oldest , but the Tibetan Plateau is not far behind . Ditto the steppes of Mongolia , Aral and Black Seas . North Africa (Lake Fezzan , Lake Chad)  , the whole Arabian and Sinai peninsulas , northern Mexico , Middle-West USA are examples . All the troublespots . Even small climatic fluctuations cause trouble if the population is over carrying capacity .
Zimbabwe I
See "Fractal collapse of societies"
For about 2000 years ,  to about 1400 AD , there was a flourishing civilization around the borders of the inland sea . The climate in the highland-areas around it was very benign , with rain the year around . Extensive ruins of terraced agriculture are discernable . The center was in Zimbabwe .
Value added items were exported to India , Arabia  mainly gold , minerals and precious stones Like now .
See the photo's in Adam's Calender by Heine and Tellinger . (ISBN 1-920153-07-1) .
Especially p25-p27 . Kilometers of ruins showing clear evidence of agriculture (terraced ,nogal) and husbandry , with market mechanisms (roads , but no evidence of wheel tracks) . Though the authors try hard , the ruins are patently fresh . They show less weathering than equivalent Roman ruins in Europe . They are younger than 1000 years . There is no evidence of  Deep Time . Stone fences are still above ground . Terraces are evident . Not very old at all . But still indicative of a flourishing society about 100 BC to 1400 AD .
So what happened ?
A severe earthquake opened up Victoria Falls again and the inland sea started draining . This coincided with the latest long-term drying-up . A tipping point was reached (because of the feedback effect) , and things went to hell in a handbasket quickly after that . There was already shrinkage before that , but this was the coup-de-grace .
The overseas merchants (Dravidian South Indian merchant class – the Komati) cut their losses and departed . Markets shrunk . The locals abandoned expensive agriculture , especially as the climate changed . The shrinkage was gradual . When the final pull-out occurred , the remnants could live on the land in a simple subsistence economy .
What remained was kilometers of ruins (like Rome before the Renaissance.)
Note that this was not a failure of civilization , but an effect of climate change .
The market disappeared because the infrastructure to feed the labour force was no longer sufficient . A market cannot create a climate . (Not then , in case)
What can we do about it ?
Well , we can rob the Congo river or the Rift lakes , but that is inelegant .
(Ne kulturny)
An elegant solution is to punch a channel underground to below 1000 meters in the Atlantic , use the pressure to squirt the water into basin , after desalinating it .
The technology exists :
1.The tunnel :
Sub-Crustal torpedoes . Submarine versions are already in use with the Russian and USA navies . Simply a high-speed projectile that uses vaporized plasma ahead of it to change the phase of the material . A train of them condenses the plasma on the sidewalls as a strong material .Cheap .
2.The desalination :
See "Negative Pressure : an important update" 6 Mar 2009 .
The nanotechnology is due at any moment . By it's very nature , it is high throughput .
3. The ideal spot :
The top reaches of the Nossob river , about midway between Okanhanja and Epokira . From there is an uncomplicated run for a sub-crustal missile to the Atlantic towards the south-west .. The further advantage is that the flooding would be via a natural river . It would be truly spectacular . It is doubtful that they could get the right depth on first try , but would rather go too deep , than too shallow . A huge permanent geyser of water hundreds of meters high would result . An inverse waterfall , to rival Victoria Falls .
4. What if the desalination is not ready ?
(Yakkity-yak humans –most likely)
A sea-water sea would be nearly as acceptable . The climatic effects would be similar. We have a model in the Black Sea .
Do the same in other endorheic basins ? Libya might do it first . Or repopulating the Aral sea . The Black Sea can do with some topping up .
This can be done definitely within 6 months from now .
See map of endorheic basins in Arabia and Sinai .
Not to mention India . Or Australia . They really need it .
5. Ocean current climatology will suddenly assume a new strategic importance .
6. The defense strategic importance of sub-crustal missile technology .
Nil .
They cannot defend against super-crustal missiles . So that is not applicable . The thing a nation or civilization has to worry about is resources . And this technology frees up the oceans' resources .
Ecology is the major worry , and avenues for that exist .
7. Money .
There is an incredible amount of money to be made .
Actually made . Real wealth creation . Millions of acres made fertile even with just saline water nearby . The carbon credits of a sub-ocean fountain dissolving CO2 alone will pay the fairly modest capital costs (about $500 million) . Sneer at iceberg-towing.
Global flooding ?. Rather worry whether there is enough water in the oceans to satisfy human demand .
An interesting exercise : calculate the remaining sea-level after maximal usage of sea-water . (Hint : look at ice-ages . Would we use the water-equivalent of miles thick glaciers on land ? Easily .Crops , drinking , industrial etc . But remember , if it is properly cleansed , it is borrowed . It does get returned to the ocean . But an awful lot of it is "in use" , in the air as it were . This percentage will increase .)
Industrial demand will lead to such a shortage of water that it would be economical to import water from the Saturn orbital clouds .
8. Parallel sub-crustal missiles .
I am deeply unhappy about the fact that major river systems in South Africa are on hard ridges . It is simply unstable , unless there is a deep trench in the river bed . The only way I can think of is a a collapsed tunnel . Drilled by a sub-crustal missile .
Meteor impact :
If you look at the paths of the Vaal ,Caledon and  Orange rivers and backtrack , you see that the tracks meet at 36.67 degrees longtitude and 26.78 latitude . This would be the putative impact point of a meteorite that split into two and tunneled under the crust  for about 1 620 km till the two plasma bodies slowed to  a threshold velocity and they swerved sharply towards each other . They impacted roughly where Hopetown is now . (A bit to the south-east , actually .) Expect diamonds .
What to expect at the impact point :
This is about 200 km from Beira . This has been a carbon rich area for a long time . I do not know when the impact took place , but even if it was a fragment of the Vredefoort meteor there would still be gas and maybe oil deposits formed by the impact waves .
Note the lightning-like offshoots before the final .
At the end , quantum distribution of charge on the plasma body overwhelms internal coherence and the two bodies rush  towards each other and self-annihilate .
Violent energy release results .
Hence the little stretch of the Orange river between Colesberg and Kimberley .
What to expect at the impact point (36.67 degrees longtitude and 26.78 latitude) .
This is in the Mozambique channel . There should be oil and gas in a radius of 120 km .
The two missile trajectories passed on either side of Nelspruit , with dense rock concentrators on either side . There should be at least gas , probably oil .
Something similar at Bloemfontein  , but probably only gas .(Figures)
Notice all the thermal springs around .
At Nelspruit : narrow at the top and wide at the bottom . Quite large .
Andre .
Appendix A
Geological changes to the course
More than two million years ago, the Upper Zambezi river used to flow south through what is now the Makgadikgadi Pan to the Limpopo River. The land around the pan experienced tectonic uplift (perhaps as part of the African superswell) and a large lake formed, and extended east.
Meanwhile, 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) east, a western tributary of the Shire River in the Great Rift Valley's southern extension through Malawi eroded a deep valley on its western escarpment. At the rate of a few cm per year, this river, the Middle Zambezi, started cutting back the bed of its river towards the west, aided by grabens (rift valleys) forming along its course in an east-west axis. As it did so it captured a number of south-flowing rivers such as the Luangwa and Kafue.
Eventually the large lake trapped at Makgadikgadi (or a tributary of it) was captured by the Middle Zambezi cutting back towards it, and emptied eastwards. The Upper Zambezi was captured as well. The Middle Zambezi was about 300 metres (980 ft) lower than the Upper Zambezi, and a high waterfall formed at the edge of the basalt plateau across which the upper river flows. This was the first Victoria Falls, somewhere down the Batoka Gorge near where Lake Kariba is now.[6] For details of how the falls cuts back its bed to form the gorge, see How the Victoria Falls formed.
The Zambezi region was known to medieval geographers as the Empire of Monomotapa, and the course of the river, as well as the position of Lakes Ngami and Nyasa, were given broadly accurately in early maps. These were probably constructed from Arab information.
Appendix B
List of endorheic basins
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The following is a list of endorheic basins — watersheds which do not drain to the sea.
Appendix C
Lake Makgadikgadi
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Lake Makgadikgadi is an ancient lake that existed in what is now the Kalahari Desert in Botswana. It may have once covered as much as 80,000 km² and been 30 m deep. The Okavango, Zambezi, and Cuando rivers once all emptied into the lake.
Origin and History
Approximately 3 million years ago, strong easterly winds brought about the formation of elongated dunes which ran from east to west across the middle of the Kalahari Desert. During wetter times, these dunes channeled the flow of the great rivers of the area, the Okavango, Chobe, and Zambezi, eastwards with the Limpopo River into the Indian Ocean.
About 2 million years ago, the formation of the fault known as the Kalahari-Zimbabwe axis, which runs from the Zimbabwe capital Harare through its second-largest city Bulawayo and ends in the eastern side of the Kalahari, created an enormous basin and forced these rivers to flow into and fill up the basin. Lake Makgadikgadi was thus created.
As the millennia passed, the lake was filled to capacity and began to overflow. About 20,000 years ago, as a result, it began to drain northwards and then eastwards. This caused the middle and lower Zambezi Rivers to connect, resulting in the formation of Victoria Falls. With the water now able to flow out of the basin, Lake Makgadikgadi was able to drain partially and its average level decreased.
A drier climatic period followed which caused an increase in evaporation and a decrease in the flow of the rivers that fed it. By about 10,000 years ago the drying of Lake Makgadikgadi was in an advanced stage. Sediment and debris from the Okavango River and windblown sand were gradually filling the lake.
The formation of the Gumare fault caused a reduction in the elevation of the land. As a result, the water of the Okavango River spread out over a much larger area of land than it previously did, forming the now characteristic fan-shaped inland delta of the Okavango, which further reduced the water that flowed into Lake Makgadikgadi and hastened its demise.
Today the only remains of Lake Makgadikgadi, are the Okavango Delta, the Nxai Pan, Lake Ngami, Lake Xau, the Mababe Depression, and the two main Makgadikgadi pans of Sua and Nwetwe.
Lake Makgadikgadi is theorized to have been the birthplace of the vast number of cichlids[1] that once swam the Congo River, Zambezi River, Okavango River and Limpopo River - as many as 100 to 400 new species, of which approximately 25 survive today. The lake's sheer size may have provided the ancestors of these fish with an extremely wide range of new ecological niches to exploit and thus could have served as the stimulus for the evolution of the new species, which they may have done in record time before the lake drained completely. The theory further says that the newly evolved species, after having evolved within the confines of the lake, could have escaped with the waters of the lake as it drained, and populated the rivers of the region to evolve into the cichlids that exist today.
In current times this land is desiccated most of the year and is a seasonal wetland in the rainy summer months.[2]
C. Michael Hogan (2008) Makgadikgadi, The Megalithic Portal, ed. A. Burnham [1]
James Owen (May 4. 2005) Lost African Lake Spawned Fish Diversity "Beyond Belief. National Geographic News[2]
Coordinates: 20°43′0″S 24°57′3″E / 20.71667°S 24.95083°E / -20.71667; 24.95083
Retrieved from ""
Categories: Former lakes | Geography of Botswana | Makgadikgadi Pan | Pleistocene
Appendix D
Human Evolution .
Snip from a NYT article about a new study by a group of geneticists which pins the origin of humankind to a spot on the coast of southwest Africa near the Kalahari Desert. The study is said to be the largest ever of its kind on African genetic diversity. The researchers say Africans are descended from 14 ancestral populations that typically correlate with language and cultural groups.
Locations for the Garden of Eden have been offered many times before, but seldom in the somewhat inhospitable borderland where Angola and Namibia meet.
A new genetic survey of people in Africa, the largest of its kind, suggests, however, that the region in southwest Africa seems, on the present evidence, to be the origin of modern humans. The authors have also identified some 14 ancestral populations.
The new data goes far toward equalizing the genetic picture of the world, given that most genetic information has come from European and Asian populations. But because it comes from Africa, the continent on which the human lineage evolved, it also sheds light on the origins of human life.
The research team was led by Sarah A. Tishkoff of the University of Pennsylvania, and reported in in a recent issue of Science: "The Genetic Structure and History of Africans and African Americans." (via Ned Sublette)
Appendix E
Okavango .
Greatest Places Physical Geography: Dr. Cecil Keen, July 1997
Geographic Description: Described as "the river which never finds the sea", the Okavango in northwestern Botswana disappears into a 6,000-square-mile maze of lagoons, channels, and islands. The river system annually brings more than 2 million tons of sand and silt into the Delta, yet less than three percent of the water emerges at the other end to either flood Lake Ngami or cross another 300 miles of the Kalahari, then to enter Lake Xau and the Makgadikgadi Pans.

The Okavango Delta, in the midst of the Kalhan sands, is Africa's largest and most beautiful oasis. The River Okavango, which rises in the highlands of Angola, never reaches the sea; instead its mighty waters empty over the sands of the Kalahari. Here the great Kalahari desert thirst is locally quenched in a blue-green wilderness of fresh water, with emerald reed beds and towering trees.
It is a natural refuge and giant water hole for the larger animals of the Kalahari. The water gives rise to many forms of life unexpected in a "desert": There are fish, crocodiles basking on the sands, and hippopotamuses and swamp antelopes feeding on the vegetation.

The Okavango is the last surviving remnant of the great Lake Makgadikgadi whose waters and associated swamps once covered much of the Middle Kalahari. It also is closely associated with the Kwando, Linyanti, and Chobe swamps and river systems to the northeast. It is thought that long ago the Okavango, Chobe, Kwando, and upper Zambezi waterways flowed as one massive river across the Middle Kalahari, to join the Limpopo River and then to the Indian Ocean.

The earth movements that created the rift of the Kalahari-Zimbabwe Axis impeded this flow, causing a damming back of the giant river, which resulted in the formation of a series of high and complex swamps. As the Okavango River left the humid highlands and entered the arid flatness of the Kalahari, it slowed and dropped its sediment load. Channels became blocked and the water sought other courses, continuing to deposit its sediments wherever it traveled. Over time, some 2 million tons of sand and debris were deposited over the Kalahari sands, creating the characteristic fan shape of the Delta.

The Okavango's waters still cut the characteristic fan shape of the Delta. The Okavango's waters still cut paths through this built-up cone and deposit their sand load, causing the channels to continue changing direction. Superimposed on these changes were the climate fluctuations of the last million years. In arid periods these complex swamps and waterways would recede; in wetter times the myriad channels may have combined to form one vast river flowing into a huge lake--the former Lake Makgadikgadi.

2 parallel faults now control the direction in which the Okavango River enters the Kalahari Basin, in an area called the Panhandle. Other faults also direct its exit from the Delta, flowing south into the ocean of sand. As the Okavango flows over the Gomare Fault, a continuation of the Great Rift Valley of east Africa, that runs southwest to northeast, the slope of the land breaks it up into numerous channels, which fan outwards over the Delta. These are blocked by 2 southern faults, the Kunyere and the Thalamakane, which redirect the Delta's myriad channels. The Thalamakane Fault acts as a 150-mile-long natural dam: Here the channels abruptly change direction and join to form one river, the Boteti, which flows eastwards through a break in the fault towards the Makgadikgadi Pan. A small channel, the Nghabe River, continues southwest toward Lake Ngami, serving as both inlet and outlet depending on the strength and direction of the annual floods.

The present Okavango is still connected to the Chobe-Zambezi River system via the Selinda Spillway. However, recent arid conditions have meant that these water courses are now seldom joined. The geology of the Okavango is still inherently unstable, as the faults continue to move and earth tremors occur. Channels become filled with sand and debris, and massive plugs of papyrus interrupt their flow. The pattern of drainage in the Delta will continue to change.

Interior drainage systems occur typically in arid areas where water evaporates to leave an accumulation of salts as a saline pan, as in Makgadikgadi and Lake Ngami. The Okavango is unique in that it forms a freshwater Delta, simply because it has several outlets. Even though their outflow comprises only three percent of the Okavango's inflow, this is enough to carry away most of the salts and keep the Delta's waters fresh. In fact there are 2 groups of outlets: west to Lake Ngami, and south and east to the Makgadikgadi Pan via the Boteti River.

Although the total drainage pattern in the Delta is complex, there is an underlying simplicity in the slow and regular pulse of water that flows down each year from the Angolan highlands. South of the Panhandle the Delta fans out for many miles. During dry periods it is estimated to cover at least 6,000 square miles, but in wetter years, with a heavy annual flood, the Okavango's waters can spread over 8,500 square miles of the Kalahari's sands. Deep water occurs in only a few channels, while vast areas of reed beds are covered by only a few inches of water.

The Okavango offers an oasis of habitat for prolific plant and animal life in a personified state of "balance in nature." Two plants dominate the Delta's perennial swamps: papyrus, a giant sedge (type of grass) which grows naturally only in Africa, and the willowy phoenix palm. They provide a fascinating record of recent changes in the limits of the perennial swamps. Papyrus, being a herbaceous species, responds more quickly to changes in water level than the phoenix, which is a woody species. The full extent of the perennial swamps along the Thaoge River, before it began to dry up this century, can be seen by the distribution of the phoenix palm, which extends much further south than the papyrus. Conversely, papyrus extends much farther east than the palm, along the Moanatshira system. This indicates the expansion of perennial swamps during this century. On the Boro River, the papyrus and phoenix occur in the same places, indicating that the extent of swamp areas has remained relatively unchanged in the central Delta during this century.

Inhabiting the waters of the Okavango are an estimated 35 million fish of almost 80 species. The most abundant, three species of bream, are preserved from excessive predation by crocodiles feeding on the tiger fish that would prey on the bream. Hippos flatten paths through the papyrus on their nocturnal forays to graze, allowing easier access for the sitatunga and antelope to traverse across the swamps during their daytime migrations. Belts of forest fringe the swamps with tall trees giving shade to large herds of larger game. Beyond the forest fringe the landscape forms an open savanna park land, and in these drier areas the greatest concentrations of game are accompanied by the predator families: lion, leopard, cheetah, hyena, and wild dog. It is in these forest fringes and savanna grasslands that elephants and giraffes can be found browsing with antelope of almost every kind, from buffalo, wildebeest, and kudu, to sable, roan and impala. Okavango is a delicate and unique example of dynamic equilibrium at work in nature. A place worthy of being called a "greatest place."
Appendix Doggerland
Andre Willers
2 Dec 2008
Where are the bodies ?
See New Scientist of 6 Nov 2008 p40 .
An interesting little problem .
There is a dearth of Mesolithic (circa 15 000 to 8 000 years ago) human skeletons in England . Even Neanderthals practiced some funerary rites , even if it only involved eating granny's stringy carcass salted with tears .
Discussion :
Let us step back to about 12 000 years ago . The lower sea-level (due to all the water locked-up in the ice-masses in the ice-age) made south-east England and the continent a contiguous land-mass . The English channel did not exist . In today's North Sea was a low lying 23 000 sq km landmass called Doggerland  , nearly as big as England .
This has been mapped (see British Archaeological Reports number 31 , Archaeopress 2007 , by Gaffney et al) using seismic data from oil exploration companies .
Ireland was also contiguous with England (with maybe a narrow channel)
The Gulfstream meant that the southwestern regions had a fairly balmy climate . This became rapidly worse as you moved northwards . What is today England and Ireland were the highlands , ranging from heavily forested in the south to tundra and ice to the north .
Agriculture or domesticated animals had not arrived yet . Humans existed , and existed very well by fishing , fowling and hunting(mostly small game) . In the warmer and more fecund areas to the south , they were sedentary . As the living became more marginal in the colder areas to the north , nomadism increased .
Doggerland was a low-lying , marshy area teeming with birdlife and small game . Fishing abounded in the shallow waters .
If the trench between Ireland and England was open , the gulfstream would have branched up it . The surrounding areas would have been even more of a hunter-gatherer's paradise than Doggerland .
Population densities .
These can be surprisingly large , approaching agricultural levels . See Amerindian population levels in California pre-Spanish . At these levels it involves heavy use of what we call "sustainable ecological principles" . It really is farming , but not involving agriculture .
We are talking about a period of at least 5 000 years here , so there was plenty of time for the population to approach Malthusian and technological limits .
But the populations would be mostly around the coasts .
Funerary practices .
Being humans , every community would have different ones .
Recycling would be popular (cf Hindu , Pacific , African or Evenk sky-burial , where vultures do the honours) .
Burial , sea-burial , cremation , you name it .
Catastrophe .
Tsunamis were the major culprit .
As the temperature increased , big dams of melt-water built up behind the moraine-dams of the large glaciers bordering the north-sea . As they broke , huge waves washed over Doggerland without any warning whatsoever .
Underwater landslides contributed , as well as tectonic activity caused by plate-rebound as the ice burden eased .
Anything human was simply washed away . This included any graves . Any bones would have ended up on the bottom of the North Sea . Trawlers have dredged up human bones for more than a century .
Timeline :
About 9 000 years ago : the Irish Sea forms .
About 8 000 years ago : Doggerland disappears . The North Sea breaks through to form the English Channel . A huge mass of icy North Sea low-salinity water scoured a deep channel past Dover . This would have changed the weather for at least one season , as well as killed most sea-life .
Most surviving humans would have perished of hunger .  (They had little in the way of food preservation , or reason to do so .)
Warfare for food left very few survivors .
(Present human civilizations would not survive such a fluctuation either.)
Note that the three known Mesolithic burial  sites are on very high ground .
The Aftermath
The tsunamis continued for a thousand years or more . The survivors prudently avoided low-lying areas and eked out a miserable existence on the fortified hilltops . Things gradually improved as the climate became warmer and more stable . The tsunamis became infrequent . Immigrants from the continent brought the agricultural and domesticated animal civilization packages (a-la-Jared Diamond) .
Before you could say New Economic Paradigm , they were building graves that could not be washed away and seismic observatories .
(See "Nazca Lines and seismic prediction" )
Refugees .
This depends on their ship-building technology .
Even a small town can build sea-worthy ships .
The Vikings did it . So did the Greeks . Just about any civilization has done it . The question was: " Is there a profit in it?" A reason , apart from normal human inquisitiveness .
Trade (Cornish gold , tin and copper for Egyptian textiles  springs to mind .) The foundations of the Bronze Age .
They had only to hug the coast around to Gibraltar to get into the Med .
Doggerland's major population centres would have been south of London , in the present English Channel .
The catastrophes described above did not happen all at once .
They would have seen their land being eaten up by the rising sea in the south and washed away by tsunamis in the north . (A bit like Florida).
Most would have stayed , assured by their priests and rulers that everything is under control . Those who left would not have gone to England , Ireland or France (too inhospitable) . Spain was better , but not very defensible . An island in a warm climate close to their main trading partner , Egypt ,would be ideal . Crete .
They would already have had trading outposts on Crete . The whole process probably took place about 8 000 to 9 000 years ago .(ie 6 000BC to 7 000BC) .
The Minoan and Egyptian civilizations then developed pari-passu into the Bronze Age .
Which is why the repopulation of England and Ireland proceeded so rapidly . The Minoans had ships and knew where all the mineral deposits were .
Atlantis .
(You didn't think you were getting away without another Atlantis , did you ?)
Plato's description of the destruction of Atlantis sounds like a horrified eyewitness account of a survivor of a tsunami . That rings true .
But he got it from an Egyptian source after about 5 000 years , who in turn got it from an Atlantean source . The periods involved get blurry  .
Another puzzling feature is his insistence that the Atlanteans warred against the Athenians . The times don't match , even in his time-line .
But , remember , he was quoting an Egyptian account . From their viewpoint , Athenians were people from Athens (more specifically , the fortress of Akropolis) , not necessarily even Greeks .
The Akropolis had been a fortress since time immemorial .
He was also insistent that Atlantis was an imperially aggressive naval power . This fits in with the above speculation .
The Minoans aggressively established a trading empire across the Med .
An Outpost-Model , later copied by the Phoenicians , Portuguese , Dutch , etc. Characteristic of Sea Powers .
Thera .
Thera was a Minoan colony . Both it and the Minoan civilization was devastated by the explosion of the island and the resultant tsunamis on Crete .
Irony .
Etruscans .
An anomaly .
They were not molested by the Minoans or the Greeks . Even the Romans incorporated most of their civilization .
Likely a fundamentalist religious splinter group of the Minoans (ie Atlanteans) .
The timing seems about right . But well after the diaspora .
This would explain why the Romans were so determined to eradicate British Druidism . Normally , they tolerated just about any religion of a subject people (especially in the Republican era)
But Julius Caesar and all subsequent emperors went out of their way to destroy British Druidism . This is understandable if some of the Mysteries they took over from the Etruscans included religious beliefs about the Old Country . British Druidism would seem an abomination to them .
Architecture :
If you look carefully at Etruscan architecture (called Tuscan now) , you can see correlations with Minoan , Karnak and Carnac styles .
The Egyptians and Greeks were great copy-cats .
Look at the columns of their temples . They were too cheapskate to copy the taper from top-to-bottom Minoan look , so they tacked that ridiculous little flourish on top (see Ionion , Corinthian , Karnak styles)
Geomancy .
The western feng-shui . Not a well-known fact .
There is an extensive and well-developed western geomancy directly derived from the Etruscans via the Romans . The Greek version derived from the Minoans .
All cathedrals , without exception , were built according to these principles .
A whole plethora of rules about ratios , alignment with magnetic poles , etc , etc .
Most good architects are well aware of them , and keep to them . They usually make sense , and clients insist on them .
Traces  of Atlantis.
If they used monoliths as pillars , the distinctive Minoan taper might be picked up on deep-sonar , deep-radar or gravitic sensors in the English Channel . Some elements might have been buried under deep silt from the Doggerland ground-mass , but the scouring action of the flood as the English Channel formed makes any small-piece survival unlikely . At the edges , maybe .
Their ship-building technology and architecture was copied quickly . There was no high-tech .
The only drawback is English snobbery . If it comes out that Atlantis was a suburb of London , we will never hear the end of it .