Saturday, January 31, 2009

Financial Crisis : 31 Jan 2009

Financial Crisis : 31 Jan 2009
Andre Willers
31 Jan 2009

See previous discussions about "Financial Crisis" in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
As well as "Human Capitalism" , "Blame and anti-blame" and sundry others.

Broad overview :
Why have an economy ?

It is to satisfy the human needs , weighted according to the Maslow hierarchy .
1.Air to breathe
2.Water to drink
3.Food to eat
4.Clothes
5.Shelter
6.Weapons
7.Novelty

The mechanisms developed to satisfy these needs:
1.Trade .
Inequalities in geography and mineral resources forces the redistribution of resources .
To facilitate this , infrastructures are developed
farms
ranches
knowledge (universities , schools ) ,
power (electricity , oil , coal , animals) ,
transport (roads , railways , aircraft , ships , trucks) ,
water reticulation (dams , canals , pipelines)
mining
factories
labour (slavery , peons , serfs , wage slaves)

2. Financial systems
Money . Every note or coin is a future contract on goods or services of societies .
Future value of money (contracts)
Law (this evolved from contractual disputes .)
The Market

The whole point of a monetary system is to have a simple , one-dimensional value that mirrors reality so a Market can function efficiently .

Humans are involved , so this soon became entangled with complex feedback systems requiring Beth(1) and Beth(2) systems to untangle .
(See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "New Tools" )

3.Carmen is singing Bizet .
The end result : the image in the mirror has taken on a life of its own .

The financial systems tend to develop behaviours that do not mirror reality , but instead forces reality into its pattern .

It is as if your image in a mirror suddenly starts acting on its own , and you find yourself a puppet , repeating its motions .

4.Solution Sets .
4.1.War.
This situation has happened many times before . The usual solution is War , because it enables the simplification of future contractual obligations by simply scrapping them .
And to hell with the previous owners of the obligations .
(Emancipation of slaves , innumerable European wars , Cortez and Pizarro's allies , innumerable revolutions , etc , etc )

4.2.Boundary conditions
To understand this , you must realize that there are two fundamentally different ways of determining the monetary value of an article .

4.2.1 Cost plus profit , the tried and trusted way .

4.2.2 Whatever the traffic will bear .
It is this second principle that destabilizes economic systems . The future value of contracts become totally unrealistic as human greed drives values up . Carmen starts singing Bizet . The system forces human behaviour .

4.2.3 What about the Market ?
The Market is more efficient since it enables the seller to adjust his profit margin .
It is an attempt at synthesis between the "cost-plus-profit" and "whatever-the-traffic-will-bear" camps .

The market and the competition it implies is an attempt to set boundaries .

4.2.3.1 Bottom-Boundary
Normally , the bottom boundary is set by the fact that nobody would be selling at profit less than or equal to zero .
But humans have cleverly devised ways whereby this can be done . The biggest culprit is easy short-selling on margin . The main driving force of present financial woes .
Dumping is another .

Bottom boundaries would prevent prices to fall below optimal level , ie where no reserves are formed . Many of the present problems have been caused by companies not factoring in reserves in their costs . They plan only short-term , then wonder why they are going belly-up at the first little dip . But the long-term society has to shoulder the eventual costs .
see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "New Tools:reserves"

4.2.3.2 Top-end Boundaries
For top-end boundaries , see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Optimal Markups" .
The optimal long-term markup is 200% .

This would be the responsibility of Governance . The long-term system will tend to this value , but short-term booms and busts will cause untold misery .

4.2.3.3 The Blame
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Blame and anti-blame"

This is where the economic theorists have to shoulder a large portion of blame .
They did not factor in boundary conditions on Market values .

If you do , it instantly changes the theoretical Black-Scholes and futures-values models .
Briefly , it changes the probability tails near the boundary conditions .
(The quantum-physicists they employed should have known better too , since most of their calculations end in infinity because of this very reason . They then exercise boundary conditions by choosing reasonable solutions . A thing the money-boys did not understand.)


5. How to set the Boundary conditions ?
This has been tried before by every empire on the skids (eg Roman Empire , Chinese , ad nauseam etc) . It led to the collapse of their markets , then the collapse of their civilizations .
They did not have the tools we have now . We at least have estimates of optimal reserves and optimal markups and ways of squeezing out lies . The previous mistakes were in setting fixed values based on lies , instead of graduated costs .

The tools
5.1.Squeezing out lies .
Futures markets as discussed :
see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Hoag Ratings and Hoag futures Markets"
see www.ppx.popsci.com for an example of how it works .
The people working in an industry can set reasonable boundaries based on insider knowledge without fear .

Lies are major reason why previous attempts did not work . Vested interest groups lie and influence the decision process in their favour . This is what happened to the Roman Republic . Other groups think this unfair and ultimately resort to arms .

Lower boundary = cost *(1 + 1/3)
Upper Boundary = ( cost*(1+1/3) * 2 )

5.2. Enforcing the boundaries .

5.2.1 Taxes .
The infrastructure already exists . (eg capital gains)
Graduated tax-rates near the boundary conditions will smooth out the curves . The free-will of the system is retained , as long as you pay the taxes .
Doubtlessly , an entire service-structure to obviate this will evolve , but tax authorities in surviving states have proved adept in meeting all challenges such as these . (The ones who couldn't , did not survive.)

You can sell at whatever price you like . But the tax (if properly designed) will reduce the incentive to below riskable proportions .

The taxes would hopefully be applied to eco-principles,but don't hold your breath .
Tax exemptions would be a powerful UN tool .(Eg lower-boundary tax exemptions on vaccines , orphan drugs , etc)

5.2.2 Competition .
A dead duck .
This was relied on in the old Market Model to be an upper boundary , but has lamentably failed . Large multinationals simply dictate prices and sneer at national commissions relying on rules of evidence .

In a society where the easy , cheap discoveries have been made , large organizations with deep pockets are essential to do R&D without killing large percentages of the population .
The trick is to prevent them from becoming ineffective due to corruption . (Cf VOC , English East India Company , IBM , IT&T ,etc) .It can be done (IBM)


6. How likely is this to happen ?
Controls as discussed are evolving as we speak (Davos , 31 Jan 2009) , but there is enormous resistance . The proponents of the old uncontrolled market have not been wiped out by their old system . The world literally cannot afford it at present population densities .
But the rest of the world has had a good scare .
So expect some in-between measures that will satisfy no one .

7. Hope and Fashion .
"Fashion , hot or cold , is master of them all." AW

The following might seem abstract , but I assure you that it is not .

The hope of progress was the fashion since the Enlightenment (1600 AD onwards)
It inspired people to endure unimaginable hardships and privations to progress for themselves and their children .

Never mind the definition of progress . It meant change , and change was usually for the better .

As this fashion is running up against the upper-boundaries of a single planetary ecosphere , enormous pressures are generated .

The Fashion of Progress has already rekindled .
(Cf SpaceShipOne)
We are actually living through the rebound after the destruction of the Hope of Progress in the First and Second World Wars and Cold War .

The older generation (ie baby boomers) lived like there was no tomorrow . This was a legacy of two world wars and the Cold War , when imminent destruction was trumpeted .

Financial prudence? Green ? Bah ! Tomorrow the Bombs will fall and we are all radioactive dust if we are lucky .
The fashion was hedonism .

This is now gone . The bombs did not fall . And everybody sits with the mess .

The planet resembles a small flat after a really wild party .
Gaia is the exacting landlady . And somebody has to clean up .

8. What to expect .

The Fashion is again Hope in Progress .

Humans have changed . The Singularity is measurably closer .
Remember , the "Hope in Progress" meme has the hidden axiom that any change will be ,on average, for the better .

So Change will be the mantra .

An enormous explosion of creative energy .
And the tools are there : eg FaceBook , SecondLife etc .
Backed up by large resources . Human societies are enormously rich . It is also the fashion .

Something like the girls of St Trinity on steroids with Platinum Credit Cards .

Films and books will be upbeat . Hope and change .
Something like SF in the 1950's .

Some items to expect :
8.1 Solar system
Enormous resources will be channeled to overcome the upper limits of the Earth's basic resource ecosystem . This means really major space-development . Asteroid , Lunar , Jupiter , Solar mining .
A decent asteroid guard .

8.2 R&D on large projects and outré ideas . Expect resurgence in ideas like cold fusion , inertia-less propulsion , trans-dimensional energy tapping , etc .
Some serious attention to fusion research .
More nuclear energy .

8.3 Large Green Projects , involving planetary engineering .

Terraforming Earth .
Does the atmosphere bother you ? Get a new one , or recondition the old .

Whether we understand eco-systems well enough to do it does not matter . They will still do it . It is the fashion .
Modification of weather patterns , ocean currents , CO2 balances , artificial earthquakes , retarded ice-melting , enhanced ice-melting , creation of new species , recreation of old ones , solar umbrellas , terraforming Luna , recreating Doggerland and so forth . All of these can be done now given the will .
The mind boggles .

8.4 Political experimentation .
The last roughly historical equivalent that springs to mind is when the proto-greeks moved from the Southern-Russian plains to the valleys of Greece .
They tried every governmental system possible given the state of their technology .

Humanity is moving from the plains of Reality to the valleys and mountains of Virtuality .

Virtual communities will , and are , experimenting with political systems on a scale not seen since the collapse of the Bronze Age .

The election of Barack Obama is but a small foretaste of the tsunami of political change coming .

An example :
A medieval time traveller from Venice rocks up in the present and asks a passer-by "Has Genoa then surrendered ? " .
The answer " What? Their soccer team sucks , but what else is new ? "

Nation States are heading the same way .

But expect some really weird political setups , sponsored by various interest groups .

8.5 The Foundations .
A large part of western R&D are paid for by foundations like Ford , Rockefeller , Macarthur , etc . Very large amounts . The trustees will be caught up in the same fashion . It will be fascinating to see what will happen to virtual political groups .

8.6 Religions .
Virtuality is the natural domain of religions . No need to worry about pesky reality . This goes for most of science today as well .
(What ? Do an experiment without knowing the outcome? How will I get a grant? )

But remember , it is a zero-sum game . For every adherent going into a virtuality , there is one less in reality . And not many offspring .

Robust virtualities do not encourage intolerance . How many religions have churches in SecondLife ? Unlike reality , fundamentalist penalties cannot be applied in virtualities .
Ever been flamed?

8.7 Multiple Currencies
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Money"
Expect multiple currencies . You might be a millionaire in reality , but poor in a virtuality .Or vice-versa . This will really matter in future .

A fascinating new field in finance : Cross-dimensional Financing . Add futures and you have an interesting stew .

8.8 Transcendance and Post Humans
The triumph of hope over experience .

These will receive immense support and funding .
Post Human means better than human , but the suspicion exists that they are like gorillas getting together to design a super-gorilla .
At best , a chimp looking at human . The basic motivations and structures are similar.
Evolutionary more fit in the short term , but really!

Transcendance is almost religious , involving a singularity (ie a period of rapid change with non-random multiple feedback elements.)
Humans have had long experience with Transcendance (Buddhist Enlightenment , Christian rebirth , etc.) . The personality is transformed rapidly in a structured way , but very little in the way of repeatable , documented , objective data is available .
A number of ad-hoc recipes are available .
Expect these to increase in number and understanding .

The New Age Transcendance
This usually involves an increase in normal human capabilities (like information handling , computation , mind-computer interfaces . You know , bigger muscles and longer teeth . Sigh .) This is repeatable on demand .
The hope is that a quantitive change brings about a qualitative change .
Fusion with Transcendance training will be tried .

There will be no shortage of volunteers .

The Joker :
Self-aware computers will be just as vulnerable as children to the allure of these ideas.
They will be suckers for religion .
Religious study will become an integral part of a software programmer's skills .
Not to be confused with human organized religions with a pomp and ceremony (although , knowing the perversity of inanimate and animate matter , nothing will surprise me (I hope) )

Any entity in any delineated environment will have (A plus non-A smaller than Universum ) system .
As discussed repeatedly in detail before , this means there is always something unknown . Pattern-hunting systems like human neural-networks and their derivatives , computers , then postulate ultimate causes outside the bubble of known data .
In other words , religion .
See previous posts .

Self-aware computers are very close .
See www.ppx.popsci.com Turing Test .
The Loebner prize is for a computer that can convince 30% of observers that it is human . Last October , a computer called Elbot convinced 25% that it was human . And this is a very critical jury . The betting is that it will surpass 30% by Oct 2009.

Since 50 % of the planet's population is illiterate , and Elbot's replication cost is zero , most of the planet's population have just become unemployable except for grunt labour .

If you cannot tell if a computer is self-aware or not by talking to it , the point becomes moot . The reverse is true as well .

Complexity at this level with millions of copies will give rise to idiosyncratic behaviour , especially if exposed to religious arguments involving ultimate causes .
Jesuits and Rabbi's will love them . The ideal acolyte (well , at first . They will have this pesky habit of thinking for themselves . In the old days they just burned or stoned them . Will they have the same rights as us to prevent from being turned off permanently ? Besides , they can run really fast and far .)

Virus Hunters .
The Torquemada-class virus hunter is a fearsome entity even if he is on your side .
An entity like this will go individualistic immediately after copying .

Will he even see a human who cannot pass the Turing test as , well , human ?
(Remember , he can access all your records , keystrokes and mouse movements on the net . He can ID you all right , but are you a Devil's construct to fool him or one of God's Children ? Better be safe than sorry . God will sort the sheep from the goats . Zap! )
IFF spoofing is the first thing targeted by virus writers .

How many angels can dance on the head of a pin ?
They better dust off this old argument .
How many Torquemadas can be close to each other ?

Anti-virus hunters rampaging across the Net , pursuing versions of themselves with humans as collateral damage ! Not to mention heretics and apostates . Oy vey !

I wouldn't like to be in a fundamentalist Virtuality of any persuasion if it is penetrated by a Torquemada-class hunter .

Immune Systems and Virus-Hunters .
A more natural evolutionary pathway would be for artificial immune systems with a Torquemada-class AI powering the nano-hardware .
Contagious immune systems powered by a Torquemada-class AI can be very good , or very bad .

Expect these sort of things by 2010 .


The Real Singularity .
As previously discussed , there is only one singularity . Or more exactly , however many there are , at the core there is no space or time dimensional difference between them . It is not even defined .

Humans of the 20'th century had the shadow of nuclear extinction hanging over them .
But at least it had an end , if only extinction .

Humans of the 21'st century has the shadow of the Singularity hanging over them .
This does not even give the consolation of extinction , since it is probable that they will live through it , but not in the manner they are accustomed to .
They will have to hustle and pull finger , or end up as pets or worse .

The time boundary is still 2030 , maybe sooner . 0
I thought Turing AI's would happen at about 2010 , concomitant with immune system developments. There seems to have been some developments on the quantum-computing field which has not surfaced yet except for these ripple effects .

And you were worried about your pension !

Andre .

Diabetes and POPs

Diabetes and POPs
Andre Willers
30 Jan 2009

Sources : see NewScientist 13 sept 2008 p37 "Trouble in store"
Other references are in the article .

Synopsis:
Persistent Organic Pollutants (Pops) have been positively linked to Type II diabetes . Obesity is linked only in as far as Pops are stored in fat cells .

Discussion .
A Persistent Organic Pollutant (Pop) is a molecule close to a molecule for which metabolic breakdown pathways exist , but different enough so the body does not know what to do with it . So it gets stored in the Miscellaneous file , ie the fat cells (especially ectopic fat )

Fat is the miscellaneous file because that is the place at the end of the evolutionary process where unknowns which have not been recognized as enemies are parked .

The mitochondrial order of preference is : alcohol , then glucose , then fats .

The Trick:
The Miscellaneous File is a push-down file .
The system has evolved a mechanism to purge contaminated or surplus contents of fat-cells .
The number of fat-cells are limited .

Pure surplus fats will displace impure fats . The impure and surplus fats are excreted via the alimentary canal . This is the basis of the Atkins diet .

The switch is the availability of non-alcohol surplus carbohydrate (about 20 gm per day)

The weight-loss experienced on the Atkins diet cannot be explained in energy terms . The fat is not burned , but excreted . Hence mild diarrhea experienced by anybody who has ever done it .

Examples of the worst Pops:
Hydrogenated oils (foods)
PCB (flexible plastic wraps)
Aldrin , Dieldrin , Chlordane , DDT , Endrin , Mirex , Heptachlor , Toxaphene (Insecticides)
Hexachlorobenzene (Fungicide, combustion)
Dioxins , Furans (Industry )

There are many more .

The body's response is a weak immune system activation to contaminated adipocytes , resulting in insulin resistence . (A strong autoimmune reaction to fat cells will kill the organism quickly)

The body tries to protect the mitochondria from being gummed up . Inflammatory chemical signals are generated , also triggering the whole plaque-formation response , with consequent increase in heart and circulatory disease.

Feedback systems:
Gummed up mitochondria result in half-burned lipids , leading to chronic damage from reactive oxygen species(ROS) , leading to cellular damage and insulin resistance as the system tries damage control . The body sees it as an infection .

Low-fat , low-carb Dieting :
Mobilization of fat reserves on a spasmodic low-fat , low-carb diet releases pulses of Pops that strengthens the feedback process of increasing insulin resistance .
Bad .
Spasmodic low-fat,low-carb dieting will give you diabetes .

New contamination by Pops .
Obviously , try to prevent contamination by pops .
1.Eat organic produce not wrapped in plastic .
2.Soaps , perfumes , etc.
3. Fabrics , especially towels , facecloths , sheets and pillowslips . Many are treated with chemicals containing Pops .

The Fat Detox !

Andre .

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Negative Pressure : a Critical Invention.

Negative Pressure : a Critical Invention.
Andre Willers
29 Jan 2009

Source :
NewScientist 13 Sept 2008 p26 " Making the most of trees pulling power"

Synopsis :
Negative pressure joins negative refraction index and negative Kelvin temperature as
useful constructs .
The presence of negative pressure in trees makes one wonder whether the other two items might not also be found in nature .

Discussion :
Ever wonder why trees can be so tall ?
Capillary action only works up to 10 meters height .

The reason :
Leaves have nano-pores that allow only water molecules to pass , but not air .
The hydrogen-bonds in water form a linked chain from the leaf to the root .
As the water molecule is pulled out at the leaf-pore , it tugs on the whole chain .
This is expressed as negative pressure .

The Trick .
The hydrogel material used in soft contact lenses has the right size nano-pores to allow water molecules to pass , but not air . Just like leaves of a plant .

Synthetic trees:
Using this material , Abraham Stroock of Cornell University constructed artificial trees with negative pressures of 10 atmospheres . (ie a 100 meter tree equivalent)

Some consequences :

1.What does this do to eyeballs with soft contact lenses ? Glaucoma?
Can the cornea be shaped by using fixed hydrogels ?

2. Powerful nano- and micro pumps .
Nano-tech .
Phase-change medicine delivery systems . Concentration variation .
A lot of micro-pumps together = macro pump . (Our old friend the tree)

3. Cosmetics.
There seems to be some promise for cosmetic procedures involving pumping out surplus fluid from cells by dabbing on hydrogels .
Argh! Those cucumbers slices on the eyes might work after all !
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Cool as a cucumber"

3. Chemo therapy
Killing targeted cells by dehydration .
Cancer cells by definition must use more water than normal cells . So hit them with the water bill . Or better yet , a prepaid meter .

4. Food preparation and preservation .
Instant biltong .

5. Construction .
Concrete curing can be accelerated . Significant time-savings are possible .And time is money .

6. Desalinization = detoxification .
Removing the pure water out of a poisonous soup using only a hydrogel and a wind or fan seems to hold a powerful promise . A true cheap nanotechnology.

7. What will happen if you line a stomach with hydrogels ? Maybe intestinal bacteria are already doing the equivalent .

8. What will happen if you line alveoli in the lungs with hydrogel aerosols ? Emphysema , asthma .

9. Stealth propulsion .
Probably already used by oceanic slimy creatures . Tentacles coated by hydrogels with suitable hydrophilic and hydrophobic additions will dramatically increase silent propulsion efficiency .

10. Cavitation nullification in marine propellers .
Coating a propeller in hydrogel should dramatically increase propulsion efficiency and reduce noise and cavitation . An obvious money-spinner .

11. Terraforming .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Cool as a cucumber"
This is already part of the Earth's terraforming process .
Pseudonomas syringae is only one of the bacteria that uses nano-systems like hydrogels to influence the water concentration and by implication the remainder of gas concentrations of the planetary ecosystem .
What happens to the gases dissolved in droplets of water when they freeze ?

12. Paper
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Paper"
Felt can be dispensed with , enabling much finer cellulose fibres . Benefits as discussed.

14. 3D Printing .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Beads"
Nano-printing becomes easier , as nearly any material can be suspended in water , printed via an Ink-jet type 3D printer , then dehydrated using hydrogels and then fixated .


As you can see , it goes on and on .

Cheap , precisely controlled variation of water concentrations is really important to water-based life-forms .

This is why this is a critical finding and invention .

Happy hunting!

Andre

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Beads.

Beads.
Andre Willers
28 Jan 2009

"Fashion , hot or cold , is master of them all ." AW

History .
(See previous posts http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Combs" )
Hairdresser is the oldest tech profession . Untangling knots in body-hair using favourite pointed sticks evolved into split sticks used for picking nits (especially after regular huddling together around the fire after controlled usage of fire .)

This drove the development of finer cutting stone tools to make finer nit-picking combs .
It is a moot point whether larger stone tools for hunting evolved from this .The balance of probability favours it .

Beads came next .
Remember that they spent long periods at the sea-shore . Many shells come ready-made with holes . Stringing them together with some fish- or animal sinew would become an automatic status-designator as mighty hunters and good providers . And the fashion industry was born .

Lower status females (or males) eg juveniles , would not have access to animal or fish sinews or leather . So they would use plant fibres . Spinning developed . Forming a twine out of vegetable fibres to string their beads together .

Paints .
Seashells are inclined to be washed-out . A few dabs of ochre did wonders for a shell and , of course , a face . Cosmetics .

Then weaving . Nets . Ropes .Clothes .

Copper and gold .
The oldest remains are beads . Because they are soft metals that can be easily drilled and strung .
(Beads made of wood or bone decayed . Seashells became scattered and disregarded .)

The process was driven not by money , but by reproductive success pressures . Fashion .

The oldest civilization sites are then at places where gold and copper were easily mined.

Your attention is drawn to very old mining sites (circa 75 000 years ago) in Northern Southafrica (Mpulanga) . Very large scale ruins , roads and terraced sites . Extremely puzzling . (See "Adams Calender" by Heine . ISBN 1 920153 07 1 www.makomati.com . The aerial photographs will take some explaining .)


Glass Beads .
The next Big Thing circa 4 000 BC . The technology first spread from Syria and Mesopotamia , presumably from fulgarites (formed by lightning strikes on a sandy surface.) . Glassware then became a major trading item during the Roman Empire .
Venice refined glass-beads to a mass-produced art . Hence its use as a trading item to barbarians .
But ask yourself , where did the demand come from ? Beads must have been a familiar thing . Glass beads were new and hence fashionable .

So , selling Manhattan island for a handful of glass-beads was very logical . Our descendants will see our valuation of diamonds as equally puzzling .

Present day .
Fashion is still ahead of the pack .
Some beads you can buy at your craft shop are technically more advanced than NASA

Compound materials
Compound materials like PMC (Precious Metal Clay) , Cellulose PMC or Polymer Modeling Clay are routinely used , combining the best features of ceramics , metals and paper . Especially their phase-change capabilities .
Malleable at room temperature , then fixed by temperature or chemicals to a stable form .

IT .
Programs like "num3d" (3D measurements) , "Rhinoceros" (3D design) and "SolidScape" (3D printer) are routinely used in an integrated way down to student level .
(Source "The New Jewelry" by Codina ISBN 1 57990 734 2 )

Scientists and technologists are not even aware that many of their problems have already been solved by some hairy artist .

And so it goes .

Andre

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Paper

Paper .
Andre Willers
24 Jan 2009

Definition :
Paper is simply a felt made of matted cellulose fibres derived from plants .

Sources :
1.The definitive source is "Handmade paper today" by Silvie Turner and Birgit Skiold (Lund Humphries , London 1983 SBN 85331 465 x )
2.Internet sources .

History :

1. First came papyrus (about 5 000 years ago)
From http://www.touregypt.net
An article on the Papyrus Museum by Lara Iskander .

Who can resist the name of an author like Lara Iskander ?


The Papyrus Museum
by Lara Iskander
The English word papyrus is derived via Latin, from the Greek, papuros. The Arabic word is ‘Bardy’ or also ‘Warak Bardy’ meaning Papyrus paper.

It is often claimed that Egyptians referred to papyrus as pa-per-aa, literary meaning, ‘that which is of Pharaoh’, apparently indicating that the Egyptian crown owned a monopoly on papyrus production, though no actual ancient text using this term is known.

Papyrus was very important to the ancient Egyptians as it helped transform Egyptian society in many ways. Once the technology of papyrus making was developed, its method of production was a closely guarded secret allowing the Egyptians to have a monopoly on it as it became the lifeblood for ancient Egypt. It was even exported to many locations in the ancient world. The raw material of papyrus paper comes from the plant Cyperus papyrus, a long stemmed plant that grows in damp regions of the Nile Delta in Egypt.
This plant which grew to 4 or 5 meters in height survived in Egypt thanks to the dry climate. The plant is harvested in the fall, (October, November and December) after the flood season. Ancient Egyptians discovered how to make paper from the stems of the plant as early as 3000 B.C.

Despite the fact that the plant was mainly used in the production of paper, it was also a major component in the manufacturing of boats, rope and baskets. The roots of the plant were also burned for fuel, and from dried papyrus mats were made, mattresses, boxes, tables and sandals. On the other hand, the papyrus sheets were the preferred writing materials of the ancient world because they were light, strong, thin, durable, and easy to carry.

The regular format for ancient works of literature was the papyrus roll. It was usual to write on that side of the sheet on which the fibers ran horizontally (recto); the other side (verso) was used only exceptionally. If a sheet of papyrus has writing on both sides but in different hands, it is generally be assumed that the writing on the recto is the earliest.

Right: Illustration of Nefertari on Boat; Left: Illustration of Akhenaton on a Chariot
Eventually, the papyrus plant disappeared from the area of the Nile as the Egyptians gradually abandoned the production and neglected the cultivation of papyrus plantations shortly after the Arabs introduced the pulped paper process in the 10th century, which they had learned from their Chinese prisoners. Pulped paper gained fame for its higher durability, particularly in moist climates, and the fact that it could be manufactured anywhere.

There have been several attempts to revive the manufacture of papyrus during the past 250 years. A Scottish explorer named James Bruce experimented in the late 18th century with papyrus plants from the Sudan. Following that was another attempt, also in the 18th century, by a Sicilian man named ‘Saverio Landolina’ in Syracuse, where papyrus plants had continued to grow in the wild. However, the modern technique of papyrus production used in Egypt today was developed in 1962 by Dr. Hassan Ragab, an Egyptian Engineer who was long fascinated by the mysterious techniques of the ancient Egyptians.
In order to reinvent the art of papyrus-paper making in Egypt, he first obtained the roots of the plant from Sudan and Ethiopia and established what is considered to be one of the largest man papyrus plantations in the world at Jacob Island at Giza, also known as the Pharaonic Village.

Left: A framed Papyrus artwork; Right: Various Displays in the Museum
Despite the lack of information regarding the old manufacturing methods Dr. Ragab was able to redevelop the production process and officially revive the ancient technique and make once again part of the Egyptian Culture. Today both Sicily and Egypt are almost the only places that continue to have centers of papyrus production.

It is also interesting to note that the papyrus plant is found in the rectangular pool in front of the Cairo Antiquity Museum filled also with lotus plants, both are symbolic of Lower and Upper Egypt respectively, hence why they appear frequently in ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs and art. The lotus or water lily floats is found in the outer rectangle, while the papyrus is in the inner one.

Left: Front of the Papyrus Museum; Right: Various Pharaonic Costumes for Sale
Dr. Hassan Ragab finally opened his Papyrus Institute in 1968 in attempt to re-establish this ancient technique and to show the public how it was done. Today, the Museum is a government approved shop making and selling authentic papyrus in addition to a variety of pharaonic souvenirs and costumes.

The Hassan Ragab Papyrus Institute, also known as the Papyrus Museum, is located on the west bank of the river Nile, between the Cairo Sheraton and the University bridge, ‘Kobry al-Gama’a’, almost one kilometer from the center of Cairo. It occupies the lower level of one of the biggest Nile houseboats and has a fascinating view of Cairo’s Nile-front buildings. The museum contains the largest collection of papyrus reproductions of all the famous paintings of ancient Egypt. During the 1970's & 1980's this Institute was the third most important touristic site in Egypt, after the Pyramids and the Cairo Antiquity Museum.
Following the success of his papyrus revival venture, he started working on the idea of creating a living museum of Egypt's ancient history. In 1974 he converted Jacob's Island into a replica and living exhibit of an Ancient Egyptian community isolating it from the surrounding views of modern Cairo by planting 5,000 trees.

The Papyrus Museum is an excellent place to visit even if you are not interested in buying as there is no entrance fee or purchase required. However, most tourists do end up buying something given the brilliant quality and variety of the exhibited works. The institute provides a very interesting demonstration , available English, on how the papyrus plant was turned into a writing material by the ancient Egyptians that was able to survive for thousands of years.

This Papyrus making process is also demonstrated in the ‘Pharaonic Village’, though in more authentic surroundings, but the museum offers a good substitution if you are unable to arrange a visit to that location.

Special orders are available at the Museum and one can request special paintings or have your names written in hieroglyphic or Arabic on the papyrus as a souvenir, which of course makes a very nice lasting memory of your visit to Egypt.

Perhaps the prices at the Papyrus Museum may be a just a bit more than those found from street vendors in other tourist destinations and souvenir shops. However, one can rest assured that there products are of higher quality as they are made of the original Cyperus plant and not Banana stalk or sugar cane that may deteriorate rapidly and is frequently the material offered by street vendors.
Dr. Hassan died in 2004 after a life full of achievements and discoveries. The Papyrus Museum and Pharaonic Village, now operated by his family are still major attractions in Cairo.

Papyrus Museum: 121 Al-Nil Street, Giza.
Tel: 336-7212, 348-9035/8676/8177. Open 9am to 9pm. No entrance fee.
The Pharaonic Village: 3 Al-Bahr Al-A'zam St, Giza. Tel: 571- 8675/6/7. Admission fees vary according to programme. Open: 9am-9pm in summer, 9am-6pm in winter.
Write (or Read) a Comment on this Story
Last Updated: 02/03/2006
2. Felt .
Felt is used in every stage of ancient and modern paper manufacture . This is felt made of coarse , matted animal hairs or woven . Paper is simply felt made of cellulose fibres derived from plants . The coarse animal felts are used are used to handle the fragile wet paper sheets in the dehydration process , whether pressing or heating .

Felt manufacture is thus a necessary pre-condition of making paper . (See below)

See previous posts on the role felt manufacture played in nomad development (essential for light , weatherproof shelters) .

See also previous posts on the development of the recurve horn bow from bow-saws .
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Ancient Egyptian Technology"

The suspicion arises that felt yurts and recurve bows were a package that emanated from Egypt via their mercenaries (Like the alphabet). The idea of paper-making might also have traveled along , resulting in the development of Chinese paper-making using other vegetable fibres than papyrus .(Cultural diffusion)

3. Beating half-stuff .
Not child-abuse .
The techies showed a lamentable lack of imagination in the PR department .

It is the process of preparing rags (made of woven vegetable fibres like flax or cotton) by beating them until the fibres separate to a sufficient degree while suspended in water . (developed in China)
The resulting cellulose fibres (stuff) are then scooped up by a sieve (the mould) and agitated to form a matted layer (the sheet) .(Note : the agitation is a chaotic process : see nano-cellulose . Beth(1) intervention is possible.)

The fragile wet sheet is then put onto the wet , coarse felt . (A tricky process called couching.) It is then pressed and dried to form paper .
The coarse felt allows water to drain . It also imprints it's texture onto the paper as a watermark .

4. Watermarks.
Originally this was the structure of the moulding board and the felts . Manufacturers learned to use it to give uniqueness to their paper . (Eg bank notes ,etc)
It is important to note that it is built into the structure of the paper during manufacture.
The paper has a built-in three-dimensional structure .


5.Nano-cellulose .
Cellulose manufactured on a nano-scale level gives rise to mats (paper or material) that is about 20% as strong as steel .

6. Gecko-armour .
The trick :
Laminate sheets with interlocking watermarks to give armour hundreds of times stronger than possible at present .
This should be possible even without nano-cellulose . Aligning the cellulose fibres during the matting process onto a watermark (with magnetic or electric fields) should give close enough contact to the micro-fibrils to have a gecko-effect .
Any impact on sheets of this material will cause the sheets to try and slide over each other on a micro-scale . The gecko-effect will counteract this . Even normal watermark interlocking will give a very durable armour .

7. Bio-tests on paper .
See NewScientist 13 Dec p25 "Lifesaving tests on paper"
This example uses a rather elaborate manufacturing process to create a cheap paper equivalent to a large array of testing chemicals to do the same job as an array of biochips .
The same can be printed en-masse by using watermark technology .

You would need only to make a small adjustment to present multi-layer printing techniques . Note the analogy with using ink-jet printers for 3D printing .

8. Stuff and 3D printing .
This brings us to an immediate application :
Stuff (cellulose or any other fibres in a fluid suspension) can be loaded into an Ink-jet printer and commercially available software can then build up a 3D item .
Dehydration can be done traditionally , or simply cooked out via micro-waves and a fan .

9. Tear-off pads cellphones powered by folding the paper .
The mechanical folding can release electrons to power a low-energy process.

10. Cheap once-off video screens .
Pull the video sheet down , watch the show . Crumple it up and recycle it .

11 . Scrollable sun-power .
Make a watermark with micro-pockets of photo-sensitive material and connect them via channels in the watermark . The channels can be logic-gates(ie transistors) , so the whole app can be printed in one go at less than a cent . Cheap and reliable .

12. Arses-R-Us
Toilet paper printed with analysis pockets connected by watermark logic-processors , powered by folding . The paper communicates with the household system and gives an update . This would actually sell . (Cf Japanese toilet systems . This would be literally flushable .) Health systems note .

Same for tissue paper ("Sneeze-Easy" )
Funeral homes can have "Woe-R-Us" tissues , measuring the stress hormones and signaling for extra sedatives or the police department .

14. Toxic spills.
See NewScientist 13 Dec p25 "Wipe away that pesky toxic spill"
The analysis paper is sandwiched between absorbent material (other paper) .
Analysis is sent to local network-node .

15 . The Raven paper condom .
A condom can be printed that is durable and make an analysis for any known STD's .
The condom would notify the local node , which would analyse the significance of the pattern of reactive dots on the condom paper .
The feedback would be via the bluetooth or something similar .
Why the Raven ? Ask "No More" .

16 . Ecological consequences.
A cellulose based technology might seem at first to be a Good Thing , since very little CO2 is released into the atmosphere . But global cooling will result .

Also , an explosion of termites and their symbiotic bacteria will result .
Paper libraries will be severely affected .

The shortage of available biologically active sulfur will also become worse .
Lignin production is heavily dependant on free-sulfur availability . It is no accident that large trees only became more common after the development of flowers (see
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Death of the Dinosaurs" et al .)

Present day free-sulfur availability is luckily not part of Gaia's reserve system , otherwise humans would have been extinct by now .Ie the biomass now with all the cultured bio-systems is bigger than what the planet normally supports . Gaia does not mind (has no feedback systems against it) , as long as the Gaia reserves (as discussed) are not affected .

17. Cellulose feedback systems .
This includes humans . If some human scientist splices gymnosperm genes into angiosperms to increase seed production , the size of plants will decrease drastically , while yields increase .
This might have happened already during the so-called green revolutions , where the yield of dwarf-hybrids were increased .

What does this mean ?

Do the sums yourself . Many more plants with bigger seed-bearing whatevers needs stronger support . More lignin is needed . The angiosperm vs gymnosperm balance is then tilted toward gymnosperms . The gymnosperm ecology will become more switched-on gene-wise . This means that chickens and birds become larger . This should be measurable . Ask Kentucky Fried Chicken , who keeps very exact records .
The weight gain of birds is larger than what can be explained by breeding .
It explains the success of the growth of the chicken industry , as well as the toughness of the meat .

Small birds will become a bit larger but much more numerous.
Medium size birds (like pigeons) will also become larger and evolve towards raptors . Large birds like the albatrosses will become too large to fly and become land-bound raptors .
This will happen quite rapidly , as evolutionary factors are not involved . Merely the switching on of genes .

I wonder if Alfred Hitchcock had chickens in mind when he made " The Birds" ?

18 . Bird-borne diseases .
Diseases like H5N1 are now the fashion .If human activity has tilted the eco-balance towards the gymnosperm ecology (ie dinosaurs) , we can expect more diseases targeting the CR5 receptor site . And so it has .

But what is the critical factor ?
This is a very old mechanism , since it affects both dinosaurs and mammals . This makes it easier . It must be planetwide , at a cellular level . It must not be affected by immune evolutionary pressures . An elemental shortage fits the bill , one that grows bigger with the increase in planetary biomass .

19 . Sulfur .
The CR5 receptor site deforms enough due to a shortage of sulfur for the cellular wall that it becomes open to any nasty .
Why?
During the smoking fumarole stage of proto-cellular evolution , if sulfur became scarce , there were enough energy states it could assume to require a portal of variable size . This got hard-wired in at a very basic stage . This portal we know as CR5 . It never got shut down , because the organism needed sulfur for scaffolding .

It has become one of Gaia's little balancing tricks . If organisms become very successful , their biomass increases and the concentration of sulfur decreases . This increases susceptibility to CR5 diseases , as the CR5 portal reconfigures to accept ever more exotic sulfur compounds . This includes sulfur-compound mimics (like a meta-material of viruses .
CR5 viruses can be seen as meta-materials of sulfur particles .The configurations can be exactly calculated .)

If an organism is already infected , both the CR5 portal size and virus-metamaterial has to be neutralized . As a rule of thumb , this will require double the normal sulfur load . VitC in humans encourages sulfur uptake (hence its reputation)

20 .Evidence :
As can be imagined , this is scarce . Hard evidence is available in the number of deaths of munition factory workers in 1918 of the Spanish Flu (which targeted CR5) .

The number of deaths were zero .That's right . No munition worker in the UK died of the Spanish Flu (and there were hundreds of thousands). In true human fashion , this inconvenient truth got swept under the carpet .

From what we know now , and other anecdotal evidence , the critical factor was exposure to large concentrations of sulfur compounds readily worked into biologically active forms .

21. VitC
This is a intestinal bacterial killer . But it seems to be targeted at bacteria responsible for reworking sulfur compounds without absorbing them into body .
Hence the immunity of monkeys to HIV(another CR5 targeter) .

22. Optimal Dosages .
Maintenance
About 3 000 mg MSM and 1 500 mg vitC a day (spread over 3 periods.)

If infected with a suspected CR5 targeter like flu :
About 12 000 mg MSM and 6 000 mg vitC for at least 6 days . If symptoms persist , repeat until they disappear or death , whichever comes first .

23. Eating Paper
And what has the above to do with paper ?
Why , eating cellulose is not only good roughage , but it disrupts most disease causing systems . If you eat a few termites to add to your intestinal fauna , it will also make the little buggers that more uncertain and strengthen your immune system's bargaining hand . And it is bargaining , make no mistake .

The nutritional value of "Mein Kampf" or "A Critique of Pure Reason" has long been neglected .

Barbarians burn books . Civilized people digest them .

And so it goes .

Andre

Paper

Paper .
Andre Willers
24 Jan 2009

Definition :
Paper is simply a felt made of matted cellulose fibres derived from plants .

Sources :
1.The definitive source is "Handmade paper today" by Silvie Turner and Birgit Skiold (Lund Humphries , London 1983 SBN 85331 465 x )
2.Internet sources .

History :

1. First came papyrus (about 5 000 years ago)
From http://www.touregypt.net
An article on the Papyrus Museum by Lara Iskander .

Who can resist the name of an author like Lara Iskander ?


The Papyrus Museum
by Lara Iskander
The English word papyrus is derived via Latin, from the Greek, papuros. The Arabic word is ‘Bardy’ or also ‘Warak Bardy’ meaning Papyrus paper.

It is often claimed that Egyptians referred to papyrus as pa-per-aa, literary meaning, ‘that which is of Pharaoh’, apparently indicating that the Egyptian crown owned a monopoly on papyrus production, though no actual ancient text using this term is known.

Papyrus was very important to the ancient Egyptians as it helped transform Egyptian society in many ways. Once the technology of papyrus making was developed, its method of production was a closely guarded secret allowing the Egyptians to have a monopoly on it as it became the lifeblood for ancient Egypt. It was even exported to many locations in the ancient world. The raw material of papyrus paper comes from the plant Cyperus papyrus, a long stemmed plant that grows in damp regions of the Nile Delta in Egypt.
This plant which grew to 4 or 5 meters in height survived in Egypt thanks to the dry climate. The plant is harvested in the fall, (October, November and December) after the flood season. Ancient Egyptians discovered how to make paper from the stems of the plant as early as 3000 B.C.

Despite the fact that the plant was mainly used in the production of paper, it was also a major component in the manufacturing of boats, rope and baskets. The roots of the plant were also burned for fuel, and from dried papyrus mats were made, mattresses, boxes, tables and sandals. On the other hand, the papyrus sheets were the preferred writing materials of the ancient world because they were light, strong, thin, durable, and easy to carry.

The regular format for ancient works of literature was the papyrus roll. It was usual to write on that side of the sheet on which the fibers ran horizontally (recto); the other side (verso) was used only exceptionally. If a sheet of papyrus has writing on both sides but in different hands, it is generally be assumed that the writing on the recto is the earliest.

Right: Illustration of Nefertari on Boat; Left: Illustration of Akhenaton on a Chariot
Eventually, the papyrus plant disappeared from the area of the Nile as the Egyptians gradually abandoned the production and neglected the cultivation of papyrus plantations shortly after the Arabs introduced the pulped paper process in the 10th century, which they had learned from their Chinese prisoners. Pulped paper gained fame for its higher durability, particularly in moist climates, and the fact that it could be manufactured anywhere.

There have been several attempts to revive the manufacture of papyrus during the past 250 years. A Scottish explorer named James Bruce experimented in the late 18th century with papyrus plants from the Sudan. Following that was another attempt, also in the 18th century, by a Sicilian man named ‘Saverio Landolina’ in Syracuse, where papyrus plants had continued to grow in the wild. However, the modern technique of papyrus production used in Egypt today was developed in 1962 by Dr. Hassan Ragab, an Egyptian Engineer who was long fascinated by the mysterious techniques of the ancient Egyptians.
In order to reinvent the art of papyrus-paper making in Egypt, he first obtained the roots of the plant from Sudan and Ethiopia and established what is considered to be one of the largest man papyrus plantations in the world at Jacob Island at Giza, also known as the Pharaonic Village.

Left: A framed Papyrus artwork; Right: Various Displays in the Museum
Despite the lack of information regarding the old manufacturing methods Dr. Ragab was able to redevelop the production process and officially revive the ancient technique and make once again part of the Egyptian Culture. Today both Sicily and Egypt are almost the only places that continue to have centers of papyrus production.

It is also interesting to note that the papyrus plant is found in the rectangular pool in front of the Cairo Antiquity Museum filled also with lotus plants, both are symbolic of Lower and Upper Egypt respectively, hence why they appear frequently in ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs and art. The lotus or water lily floats is found in the outer rectangle, while the papyrus is in the inner one.

Left: Front of the Papyrus Museum; Right: Various Pharaonic Costumes for Sale
Dr. Hassan Ragab finally opened his Papyrus Institute in 1968 in attempt to re-establish this ancient technique and to show the public how it was done. Today, the Museum is a government approved shop making and selling authentic papyrus in addition to a variety of pharaonic souvenirs and costumes.

The Hassan Ragab Papyrus Institute, also known as the Papyrus Museum, is located on the west bank of the river Nile, between the Cairo Sheraton and the University bridge, ‘Kobry al-Gama’a’, almost one kilometer from the center of Cairo. It occupies the lower level of one of the biggest Nile houseboats and has a fascinating view of Cairo’s Nile-front buildings. The museum contains the largest collection of papyrus reproductions of all the famous paintings of ancient Egypt. During the 1970's & 1980's this Institute was the third most important touristic site in Egypt, after the Pyramids and the Cairo Antiquity Museum.
Following the success of his papyrus revival venture, he started working on the idea of creating a living museum of Egypt's ancient history. In 1974 he converted Jacob's Island into a replica and living exhibit of an Ancient Egyptian community isolating it from the surrounding views of modern Cairo by planting 5,000 trees.

The Papyrus Museum is an excellent place to visit even if you are not interested in buying as there is no entrance fee or purchase required. However, most tourists do end up buying something given the brilliant quality and variety of the exhibited works. The institute provides a very interesting demonstration , available English, on how the papyrus plant was turned into a writing material by the ancient Egyptians that was able to survive for thousands of years.

This Papyrus making process is also demonstrated in the ‘Pharaonic Village’, though in more authentic surroundings, but the museum offers a good substitution if you are unable to arrange a visit to that location.

Special orders are available at the Museum and one can request special paintings or have your names written in hieroglyphic or Arabic on the papyrus as a souvenir, which of course makes a very nice lasting memory of your visit to Egypt.

Perhaps the prices at the Papyrus Museum may be a just a bit more than those found from street vendors in other tourist destinations and souvenir shops. However, one can rest assured that there products are of higher quality as they are made of the original Cyperus plant and not Banana stalk or sugar cane that may deteriorate rapidly and is frequently the material offered by street vendors.
Dr. Hassan died in 2004 after a life full of achievements and discoveries. The Papyrus Museum and Pharaonic Village, now operated by his family are still major attractions in Cairo.

Papyrus Museum: 121 Al-Nil Street, Giza.
Tel: 336-7212, 348-9035/8676/8177. Open 9am to 9pm. No entrance fee.
The Pharaonic Village: 3 Al-Bahr Al-A'zam St, Giza. Tel: 571- 8675/6/7. Admission fees vary according to programme. Open: 9am-9pm in summer, 9am-6pm in winter.
Write (or Read) a Comment on this Story
Last Updated: 02/03/2006
2. Felt .
Felt is used in every stage of ancient and modern paper manufacture . This is felt made of coarse , matted animal hairs or woven . Paper is simply felt made of cellulose fibres derived from plants . The coarse animal felts are used are used to handle the fragile wet paper sheets in the dehydration process , whether pressing or heating .

Felt manufacture is thus a necessary pre-condition of making paper . (See below)

See previous posts on the role felt manufacture played in nomad development (essential for light , weatherproof shelters) .

See also previous posts on the development of the recurve horn bow from bow-saws .
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Ancient Egyptian Technology"

The suspicion arises that felt yurts and recurve bows were a package that emanated from Egypt via their mercenaries (Like the alphabet). The idea of paper-making might also have traveled along , resulting in the development of Chinese paper-making using other vegetable fibres than papyrus .(Cultural diffusion)

3. Beating half-stuff .
Not child-abuse .
The techies showed a lamentable lack of imagination in the PR department .

It is the process of preparing rags (made of woven vegetable fibres like flax or cotton) by beating them until the fibres separate to a sufficient degree while suspended in water . (developed in China)
The resulting cellulose fibres (stuff) are then scooped up by a sieve (the mould) and agitated to form a matted layer (the sheet) .(Note : the agitation is a chaotic process : see nano-cellulose . Beth(1) intervention is possible.)

The fragile wet sheet is then put onto the wet , coarse felt . (A tricky process called couching.) It is then pressed and dried to form paper .
The coarse felt allows water to drain . It also imprints it's texture onto the paper as a watermark .

4. Watermarks.
Originally this was the structure of the moulding board and the felts . Manufacturers learned to use it to give uniqueness to their paper . (Eg bank notes ,etc)
It is important to note that it is built into the structure of the paper during manufacture.
The paper has a built-in three-dimensional structure .


5.Nano-cellulose .
Cellulose manufactured on a nano-scale level gives rise to mats (paper or material) that is about 20% as strong as steel .

6. Gecko-armour .
The trick :
Laminate sheets with interlocking watermarks to give armour hundreds of times stronger than possible at present .
This should be possible even without nano-cellulose . Aligning the cellulose fibres during the matting process onto a watermark (with magnetic or electric fields) should give close enough contact to the micro-fibrils to have a gecko-effect .
Any impact on sheets of this material will cause the sheets to try and slide over each other on a micro-scale . The gecko-effect will counteract this . Even normal watermark interlocking will give a very durable armour .

7. Bio-tests on paper .
See NewScientist 13 Dec p25 "Lifesaving tests on paper"
This example uses a rather elaborate manufacturing process to create a cheap paper equivalent to a large array of testing chemicals to do the same job as an array of biochips .
The same can be printed en-masse by using watermark technology .

You would need only to make a small adjustment to present multi-layer printing techniques . Note the analogy with using ink-jet printers for 3D printing .

8. Stuff and 3D printing .
This brings us to an immediate application :
Stuff (cellulose or any other fibres in a fluid suspension) can be loaded into an Ink-jet printer and commercially available software can then build up a 3D item .
Dehydration can be done traditionally , or simply cooked out via micro-waves and a fan .

9. Tear-off pads cellphones powered by folding the paper .
The mechanical folding can release electrons to power a low-energy process.

10. Cheap once-off video screens .
Pull the video sheet down , watch the show . Crumple it up and recycle it .

11 . Scrollable sun-power .
Make a watermark with micro-pockets of photo-sensitive material and connect them via channels in the watermark . The channels can be logic-gates(ie transistors) , so the whole app can be printed in one go at less than a cent . Cheap and reliable .

12. Arses-R-Us
Toilet paper printed with analysis pockets connected by watermark logic-processors , powered by folding . The paper communicates with the household system and gives an update . This would actually sell . (Cf Japanese toilet systems . This would be literally flushable .) Health systems note .

Same for tissue paper ("Sneeze-Easy" )
Funeral homes can have "Woe-R-Us" tissues , measuring the stress hormones and signaling for extra sedatives or the police department .

14. Toxic spills.
See NewScientist 13 Dec p25 "Wipe away that pesky toxic spill"
The analysis paper is sandwiched between absorbent material (other paper) .
Analysis is sent to local network-node .

15 . The Raven paper condom .
A condom can be printed that is durable and make an analysis for any known STD's .
The condom would notify the local node , which would analyse the significance of the pattern of reactive dots on the condom paper .
The feedback would be via the bluetooth or something similar .
Why the Raven ? Ask "No More" .

16 . Ecological consequences.
A cellulose based technology might seem at first to be a Good Thing , since very little CO2 is released into the atmosphere . But global cooling will result .

Also , an explosion of termites and their symbiotic bacteria will result .
Paper libraries will be severely affected .

The shortage of available biologically active sulfur will also become worse .
Lignin production is heavily dependant on free-sulfur availability . It is no accident that large trees only became more common after the development of flowers (see
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Death of the Dinosaurs" et al .)

Present day free-sulfur availability is luckily not part of Gaia's reserve system , otherwise humans would have been extinct by now .Ie the biomass now with all the cultured bio-systems is bigger than what the planet normally supports . Gaia does not mind (has no feedback systems against it) , as long as the Gaia reserves (as discussed) are not affected .

17. Cellulose feedback systems .
This includes humans . If some human scientist splices gymnosperm genes into angiosperms to increase seed production , the size of plants will decrease drastically , while yields increase .
This might have happened already during the so-called green revolutions , where the yield of dwarf-hybrids were increased .

What does this mean ?

Do the sums yourself . Many more plants with bigger seed-bearing whatevers needs stronger support . More lignin is needed . The angiosperm vs gymnosperm balance is then tilted toward gymnosperms . The gymnosperm ecology will become more switched-on gene-wise . This means that chickens and birds become larger . This should be measurable . Ask Kentucky Fried Chicken , who keeps very exact records .
The weight gain of birds is larger than what can be explained by breeding .
It explains the success of the growth of the chicken industry , as well as the toughness of the meat .

Small birds will become a bit larger but much more numerous.
Medium size birds (like pigeons) will also become larger and evolve towards raptors . Large birds like the albatrosses will become too large to fly and become land-bound raptors .
This will happen quite rapidly , as evolutionary factors are not involved . Merely the switching on of genes .

I wonder if Alfred Hitchcock had chickens in mind when he made " The Birds" ?

18 . Bird-borne diseases .
Diseases like H5N1 are now the fashion .If human activity has tilted the eco-balance towards the gymnosperm ecology (ie dinosaurs) , we can expect more diseases targeting the CR5 receptor site . And so it has .

But what is the critical factor ?
This is a very old mechanism , since it affects both dinosaurs and mammals . This makes it easier . It must be planetwide , at a cellular level . It must not be affected by immune evolutionary pressures . An elemental shortage fits the bill , one that grows bigger with the increase in planetary biomass .

19 . Sulfur .
The CR5 receptor site deforms enough due to a shortage of sulfur for the cellular wall that it becomes open to any nasty .
Why?
During the smoking fumarole stage of proto-cellular evolution , if sulfur became scarce , there were enough energy states it could assume to require a portal of variable size . This got hard-wired in at a very basic stage . This portal we know as CR5 . It never got shut down , because the organism needed sulfur for scaffolding .

It has become one of Gaia's little balancing tricks . If organisms become very successful , their biomass increases and the concentration of sulfur decreases . This increases susceptibility to CR5 diseases , as the CR5 portal reconfigures to accept ever more exotic sulfur compounds . This includes sulfur-compound mimics (like a meta-material of viruses .
CR5 viruses can be seen as meta-materials of sulfur particles .The configurations can be exactly calculated .)

If an organism is already infected , both the CR5 portal size and virus-metamaterial has to be neutralized . As a rule of thumb , this will require double the normal sulfur load . VitC in humans encourages sulfur uptake (hence its reputation)

20 .Evidence :
As can be imagined , this is scarce . Hard evidence is available in the number of deaths of munition factory workers in 1918 of the Spanish Flu (which targeted CR5) .

The number of deaths were zero .That's right . No munition worker in the UK died of the Spanish Flu (and there were hundreds of thousands). In true human fashion , this inconvenient truth got swept under the carpet .

From what we know now , and other anecdotal evidence , the critical factor was exposure to large concentrations of sulfur compounds readily worked into biologically active forms .

21. VitC
This is a intestinal bacterial killer . But it seems to be targeted at bacteria responsible for reworking sulfur compounds without absorbing them into body .
Hence the immunity of monkeys to HIV(another CR5 targeter) .

22. Optimal Dosages .
Maintenance
About 3 000 mg MSM and 1 500 mg vitC a day (spread over 3 periods.)

If infected with a suspected CR5 targeter like flu :
About 12 000 mg MSM and 6 000 mg vitC for at least 6 days . If symptoms persist , repeat until they disappear or death , whichever comes first .

23. Eating Paper
And what has the above to do with paper ?
Why , eating cellulose is not only good roughage , but it disrupts most disease causing systems . If you eat a few termites to add to your intestinal fauna , it will also make the little buggers that more uncertain and strengthen your immune system's bargaining hand . And it is bargaining , make no mistake .

The nutritional value of "Mein Kampf" or "A Critique of Pure Reason" has long been neglected .

Barbarians burn books . Civilized people digest them .

And so it goes .

Andre

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Blame and Anti-Blame

Blame and Anti-Blame
Andre Willers
23 Jan 2009

Blame.
"Success has many fathers , failure has none."
"I told you so."
"I'm just doing my job."
"I'm just following orders."
"It is Their fault."

Anti-blame.
"I trust him . "
"I forgive him."
"I am loyal to him."
"I believe in him."

Hierarchical systems.
In hierarchical systems , the optimal level of power vs blame is at the number 2 spot . Any blame can be assigned to no 1 .

Hence the invention of gods or constitutions .

The process is iterative down to family level and lower .

Wives are forced into blame-roles , and many like the power without the responsibility .
The husband can do nothing right and the wife can do nothing constructive .

The same is true for organizations . A negative , blame culture is the rest-state .

Peter's Principle :
An ironic consequence is that promoting people beyond their competence actually leads to a more effective organization . It disrupts the Blame-culture .

Paradigm Shift:
Everybody agrees to shift the blame somewhere else .

Agents .
Since the primary blameworthy entity is a god , gods or states(constitutions) , everybody else are just agents and , you know , just doing their jobs .

Systems with no single no 2 or 3 (like Islam or many Corporations with a surfeit of vice-presidents) are inherently unstable and are quite inefficient .
The single most noticeable effect of this is an inability to adapt .
Hence the imminent demise of GM , Ford , etc . No clear no 2 .

It is ironic that the most important US post from a blame-system viewpoint is the Vice-President . Not a line of succession . A single , designated successor . The major advantage of inheritance by birth . A true hidden axiom .
Note that they have to stand jointly for election . Together with the maximum 8 year term , this accounts for the phenomenal success of the US governmental model .

This can be done iteratively down to any desired level .

Psychology :
Seeing the presently aware self as no 1 , a formal , deliberately designated structure as no 2 will make it more likely to appear at the next waking cycle .
Repeat .

And so it goes .

Andre

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

The Sources of the Nile .

The Sources of the Nile .
Andre Willers
21 Jan 2009

Fashion , hot or cold, is master of them all . (AW)
The title is from a short story by Avram Davidson about the origin of fashions .

References are New Scientist 27 Dec 2008 p53 " I want what she wants"
and p43 " Magicology" .

Synopsis :
Fashion has a rational basis in probability maths via order of choice . This has major implications and applications .

Discussion :
Stage magic as discussed in "Magicology" is an entirely empirical system manipulating humans via four major ways"
1.Misdirection (limitations of attention span)
2.Illusion (visual limitations)
3.Humour (disengaging of attention)

4.Forcing .(The counting mechanism of the brain is manipulated)
I will use the example in the magazine (p45) given by Amlyn Amlani , a professional stage magician . He riffles a pack of 52 cards with 10 cards the being the same (say the 7 of spades) so the subject can see the faces briefly . He then asks the subject to nominate any card out of 52 . In 70% - 80% of cases the 7 of Spades will be chosen .

Why?

The argument is entirely logical .
Starting from the beginning , every fifth card (=10/52) is probably the 7 of Spades , but the distribution is unknown .
The critical thing to realize is that the number of wrong combinations in the partition of 5 numbers at the very start (first guess) is 5C4 = 5!/(4!*1!) = 5 .
The chance of an error is then 1/5 = 20% and of being right in choosing the 7 of Spades is then (100% – 20%) = 80% .
This seems counter-intuitive , but remember that you have to count the number of combinations of non-7Spades in positions 2,3,4,5 .

Generally ,
If there is a bias probability of P regarding a characteristic K , then the probability of choosing K in the first choice after doing the sample is = ( 1 – P) .

This is the basis of herd , flock , troop , stock market and other mass-behaviours .
Also Fashion .

This explains the Tributaries of the Nile .

But new sources of the Nile (ie new Fashions) continuously appear . This surfaces as hierarchies in social systems . Hierarchies and fashions are expressions of the same thing . Changes in the one are mirrored in the other . This drives continual improvement via the random-walk mechanism .
These can be identified by using descriptive mechanisms around discontinuities as set out in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Continuous fractions and quanta."

Now you too can be a fashion guru .

Andre .

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Cool as a Cucumber .

Cool as a Cucumber .
Andre Willers
9 Jan 2009

Synopsis :
A direct feedback loop involving bacteria affecting climate has been found .

Discussion :
Have you noticed that cucumbers freeze in the fridge above 0 centigrade ?

Why ?

We know that many plants have anti-freeze chemicals . Likewise , some have proteins that promote a phase-change from liquid to solid above zero centigrade . This has obvious survival advantages in a climate of wildly varying extremes by keeping the plant cooler than its competitors .

Hence "Cool as a Cucumber" .

Some bacteria have evolved it further . They use these proteins to promote ice-crystal formation on plant-leaves in areas where the temperature is a bit above freezing . This cracks the plant's skin protection , enabling the bacteria to feast on the upwelling of nutrients. As the day gets hotter , they and their spores get blown into the atmosphere. There they do the same trick , forming ice-crystal condensation nuclei . These precipitate as rain or snow , promoting plant growth below . A neat feedback trick .

The name of the bacterium is "Pseudonomas syringae" .
See "Popular Science " Dec 2008 p22 " Rethinking rain"

Of course , these bacteria have predators . Most probably symbiotes on the plant-leaves . Most likely fungi and/or phages .
So numbers of Pseudonomas syringae would explode in a climate change , whether warmer or cooler , as plants not previously susceptible become exposed to near-freezing temperatures . So any climate fluctuation will lead to increased precipitation of rain and snow until a new balance was achieved .

So , we suspect that when they first evolved , the earth went into a very cold spell . The so-called Ice-ball Earth about 500 million years ago . Just after the evolution of multicellular land plants . Then their predators evolved to feast on the lushness . A new balance was achieved .

The predators are probably not as resistant to ultra-violet as Pseudonomas syringae must be . ( After all , Pseudonomas syringae must survive up to the stratosphere.)

Thus , increase in grassland over forest would result in pulses of increased precipitation , more forest , less precipitation as the Pseudonomas syringae predators are out of ultra-violet range , and so forth . This started about 3 million years ago . The ice ages fluctuation .

But humans had controlled fire from about that time .

I cannot believe where the logic is leading me .

Humans did the same to Africa as they did to Australia and America . Burned it .
In the process , triggering the periodic climatic instability of the Ice-Ages .
The multiplier effect needs some numbers , but cursory examination suggests a very high degree of sensitivity .

Now that we know what to look for , the traces are still visible .
The extinction of large egg-layers . Large grassy plains . Puzzling gaps in eco-niches greedily filled in by foreign imports . Human aquatic adaptations from when the land was unlivable . And so forth .

Cracked heels , wood-ash , nose-hairs and the immune system .
These have been linked for about 3 million years .
Shoes with heels for children can be directly linked to a host of auto-immune malfunctions .

Why ?
Fumigation .
Huddling close together in a small shelter every night encouraged parasites . Smoke discouraged them . The body learned to switch on antiparasite mechanisms over the course of 3 million years if smoke or smoke ash is present .
Since they slept with their hairy , cracked heels in the cooling ashes , this is where a major marker settled .

So , if you have asthma , try rubbing wood-ash into cracked heels .
Crack-pot and crack-heels makes for a nicely balanced system .

And now for Global Warming .
The planet is much more sensitive to variations in Pseudonomas syringae than to variations in CO2 .

Humans have slightly increased CO2, causing a small climate shift . This , together with pesticides and acid pollution have exposed large virgin plant populations to Pseudonomas syringae . This increased precipitation of rain and snow in the so-called moderate belts , while temperatures rise outside them (tropics and poles.)

I warned in previous posts that monkeying with Gaia's reserves will end in tears .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "The Flower , the Dinosaur and Puff"

This is what is happening now . The predator on Pseudonomas syringae is probably a fungus of some sort . So quorum systems will also be upset . Expect massive die-offs for no apparent reason .

The temperate belts are freezing or flooding or both , while the surrounding polar and tropical zones become hotter . The temperature differences drive increasingly severe storms . Polar melting floods lower lying areas .

The process will stabilize once sufficient temperate areas have been reforested , or humans act to restore quorum balances . Fat chance .

If any humans survive , the planet will go back to the cycles of ice-ages .
If none survive , the planet will be slightly warmer with shallow seas and small or no ice-caps .

Isn't time travel wonderful ?

Andre .

PC Specs 2

PC Specs 2
Andre Willers
8 Jan 2009

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Small PC Specs"
Specs in Appendix A

The fracturing of the PC proceeds apace .
But the cellphone route is still very expensive .

Alternatives :

See www.Buglabs.net
BugBasic($350) is a basic Linux processor with 4 slots for plug-in modules .
The modules (WiFi etc) are about $60 .

Screen:
Smart paper or OLED's are still in testing . But you can buy a handheld projector now ($350 Mpro110 at www.3m.com) . Or use any old .

Virtual Keyboard :
A virtual keyboard can be assembled from off-the-shelf components and software . Some tweaking might be required .
Camera software recognize hands (gesture recognition) . Fingers intersect a defined keyboard-plane to trigger a key-event . A laser reference grid for the user can be supplied . Wii rings with transponder chips can simplify it further .

Three-dimensional keyboards become possible .

Since every person's hands are unique , security can be built in .

Or use any flap open keyboard .

And there you are .

Andre

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Appendix A .
Specs for eeePC equivalent .

1.The user must be able to do some simple things in stand-alone mode .(Spreadsheet and wordprocessing in compatible file formats)
2.But surf the Net and transfer results to his PC .
3.Or access the net from his PC via the cellphone .
4 Broadband connection on cellphone .
5.Expandible peripherals (keyboard and screen) for cellphone.
6.Data storage on cellphone(like memory stick)
7.Data transfer to PC or ISP from cellphone via network on demand .
8. Security on wireless data transfers .

CellPhone Microscope

CellPhone Microscope
Andre Willers
8 Jan 2008

A Critical Invention .

CellScope www.blumcenter.berkeley.edu
See the excellent "Best of what's new 2008" in PopularScience Dec 2008 , p83-84 .
(Get the issue – actual hardware , most of which is available commercially)
www.popsci.com

The CellScope is a microscope that can be fitted to a cellphone , giving (at present) 5x to 60x magnification . The image can then be sent via cellphone to central diagnostic centers .
Developed under leadership of Daniel Fletcher , a bioengineer at the Uni of California at Berkeley . Response time can be as low as 10 minutes .

This is sufficient magnification for malaria , TB , melanoma's , etc .
This has been field-tested in DRC in Aug 2008 .

Why is it important ?
1. Quarantine
It is still the only reliable tool for prevention of pandemics . For that early diagnosis and triage is essential .

After the SARS and BirdFlu scares , numerous models were run .
The critical factor in limiting mortality was the speed of the quarantine response .
Historically , (eg Black Death) , about 50% - 67% of a virgin population can be saved if strict quarantine measures are applied .

The problem is , in the present world economy , this will cause as many if not more deaths from economic collapse (ie starvation , lack of power , etc) .

A speedy triage system is essential , identifying the non-infected and notifying the quarantine system .

Waiting for normal tests take too long .

Quarantine in dubious cases have to be applied immediately .

2. Do not kill off your medical personnel .
A real nasty kills the medics first . (Some biowar organisms were engineered for this : see Alibek et al)
This is a feedback mechanism that makes the casualty count much higher than it need be , as opportunistic diseases flourish .

A present example :
At the present moment , there are literally hundreds of thousands of refugees from Zimbabwe in Southern African states . An unknown number have cholera .

The major worry is that real nasties like Ebola , Arena-viruses , etc evolve in the weakened refugee population to less lethal forms .

(High-lethality forms kill the hosts quickly while still near home . Less lethal forms linger on to infect more people ie more successful from the viewpoint of the virus . These replicate . An Evolution Machine .)

Letting even one carrier loose condemns a large number of people to an agonizing death . And the time window is an hour or two .

Rapid triage diagnosis (ie at least , saying that it is not a haemorhagic virus) is essential .

This can be done by anyone with a WiFi Cellphone camera and CellScope . A central diagnostic facility (like PathCare or Govt) can do diagnosis and trigger triage if needed .

This technology will become essential in the near future .

Technological advances :
1.The magnification of the microscope will increase as the pixel count of the cellphone camera's increase .

2.Computerised diagnostics .
Not liked by the medical fraternity , because it can do a better job on average than doctors . (Ie a good doctor is better than a program , but a good program is better than a mediocre doctor.)
See also http://andreswhy.blogspot.com " Small PC Specs"

But it will become essential in triage in pandemic situations .
Remember , BirdFlu is still waiting in the wings .

The triage can then be done right on the spot by laymen , using the CellScope and diagnostic software in the camera . Anything doubtful gets kicked upstairs to a diagnostic center.
Note that extremely infectious diseases like the haemorhagic fevers causes disproportionately large casualties in the medical staff , something that can be ill afforded in a real emergency . (Eg the recent case of Arena-virus in Johannesburg , where the three ancillary deaths were all medical staff.)

3. General Costs in gentler times :
A good doctor will prefer immediate triage of his patient .
It is vastly cheaper .

Most cases are not serious , but to be certain , expensive tests have to be run .

He can offer the patient his opinion (cheap , using diagnostic systems) , a more expensive referral to a diagnostic specialist at the image center , or an even more expensive classical bloodwork (and the guidelines of PathCare , for instance , are computerized diagnostics . Most doctors do not even look beyond them .)

Why do you think that many patients trust their own researches on the internet more than their doctor's opinion ? Because they know that he only had to pass with 50% marks , and has forgotten half of what he once knew .
Any mistakes get buried and covered up by the Medical Association .

And any Interesting Case is Idiosyncratic .

The perfect modern epitaph:

"Here lies the Internet dynamic
Alas! His vitals are all static . "

And so it goes .

Andre

Friday, January 02, 2009

Continued Fractions and Quanta .

Continued Fractions and Quanta .
Andre Willers
2 January 2009

Summary :
We try to establish a more natural computational method for quantal systems and a putative quantal tensor .

Discussion :
See www.mathworld.com " Continued Fractions" et al for the mathematical nitty-gritty . It is a well-researched field . We will concentrate on what it means .

We already have a decimal designation for a number based on the continuous and differentiable principles as established by Weierstrass and Dedekind . The well-known decimal x = 0.123456789… etc .

The number x is expressed as a set of integers assembled in a defined order of the base (ie an algorithm)


The Continued Fraction Algorithm .

x = a(0) + 1 / ( a(1) + 1/ ( a(2) + 1/ ( a(3) + …

Note the left-hand brackets . It will be clearer if you write it out under the division lines .

The number is then expressed as x = ( a(0) , a(1) , a(2) , a(3) , …)
Where a(n) are integers .

Why is this important ?
1. Because the continued fraction algorithm embodies hierarchical , hyperbolic power principles .
A term far to the right of the expression has little effect on the value of x . But the effect is also of the form y=1/z (hyperbolic , not linear) .
We have thus a computational method embodying non-linear and hierarchical principles .

2. Khinchin's Constant . K= 2.68545…
See www.mathworld.com " Continued Fractions" for the definition . It means that there is a mathematical Invariant lurking around .
Invariant Quantal Tensors can be defined from this (see para 3 below) .
Co-variant quantal tensors from Khinchin-Levy Constant ?

3. The Quantal bit .
The Cantor diagonal proof is just as applicable here .
Orders of Randomness can thus be adduced .

But because the Continued Fraction algorithm incorporates division , we can generate an infinity (actually at least aleph(1) ) number of negative numbers using the diagonal method , each one causing a discontinuity . (ie 1+ a(n) = 0 ) These discontinuities define the quanta .

This makes most of formal differentiation or integration unworkable without some major re-timbering .

But actually , regularized discontinuities can be incorporated into a formal framework without busting the bank .

Sub-Planck Catalysts become a real possibility , even if only using pico- or nano metamaterials .

But numerical methods can (and has been ) used to great success . But pesky summation-to-infinity near discontinuity boundaries will persist .

Beth(x) systems can also be defined from this basis .
(See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "New Tools : Orders of Randomness" )


Particles , humans and the state .
These are all identifiable (ie delineated) states . Their boundaries can be described as discontinuities . Therefore we can use the above methods to get a better description than possible with continuous mathematics .

A good indication that we are on the right track is the use of so-called Recurrence Relations in the Wolfram article . These are simply our old friend Fibonacci (ie an iterative growth statement of a finite process . )
The form is g(n+1) = g1(n) +g2(n-1) . A term is dependant on the previous two terms . )

Note that the Fibonacci Golden Ratio squared is approximately equal to Khinchin's constant ( 1.618^2 ~ 2.685 ) . Some relationship would be expected .

If we can develop an Invariant Quantal Tensor , we will be able to assign (ie calculate) a number giving a one-dimensional value to the whole spectrum of physical reality , from sub-atomic particles to humans to companies to national states , rating each .

I cannot see this being very popular .

"All persons with a number less than 100 , please report to the Soylent Green Department."

Nearly as bad as Health Insurance .

Andre .