Friday, August 26, 2011

LA Big One Update

LA Big One Update
Andre Willers
26 Aug 2011

Synopsis :
The Big One for California is expected with epicenter at about 38 N , 126 W around September 5 , 2011 . In the sea , off Los Angeles . Expect big tsunamis .
Still on track.

Discussion :
I have had some comments that 126 W does not fit the model's prediction of 135 W
And that the latitude differs by 10 degrees with that of LA .

Sadly , this does not make much difference . This is not a fault quake .

Magma Plume Origin .
This means the whole ocean floor lifts . Triggering faults , as well as tsunamis .
The weakest fault nearest to 59 N , 135 W goes first , and the rest unzips in sequence .
The first seems to be at 38 N , 126 W , then down the longitude . Due to the fractured nature of Californian coast .
The land quakes could be worse , but the tsunamis will be bad .

The timing :
Sept 6, 2011 , about the 12h00-13h00 .
.Reverberation effects around planetary magma layers .There is a slight delay anti-spinward . (The triggering signature is the Colorado quake)

The extent is unknown . Lunar and Solar tidal fluxes of the magma has to be taken into account . About 22 hours later than prediction on Sept 5 , 2011 by my estimate .

Maximum probability at about 12h00- 13h00 on Sept 6 , 2011 . (when atmospheric pressure at lowest .)

I will only be too glad if I am wrong .

Andre .

Work for All.

Work for All.
Andre Willers
26 Aug 2011

"By the sweat of thy brow thy will earn thy bread"

Synopsis :
Earth needs fixing .
Debt is the accumulation of Promises-to-Pay : a form of capital .
Combine the two to solve both problems .

Discussion :
The largest pools of skilled labour and per-capita debt are in the West
(as discussed previously – see "Financial Crisis " for months of 2011 , especially 21 Jun 2011 .)

The rather outdated Market Mechanism can still be used to match needs (Earth) and resources (Debt capital , humans) , with sufficient margins to fuel intermediary catalysts (Agents , Banks) .

Convert debts into Green Bonds , use these for collateral to pay for fixing the Earth .

Increased productivity following from fixing the planet will offset and later surpass debt-inputs . But there will be a lag dip . Luckily , there is a lag built-in to debt mechanisms due to the nature of exponential systems .

Summary :

The Carrot Scenario :
Everyone will have to work hard , but not starve , but then become filthy rich .

The Stick Scenario :
If they do not . They will starve , with high probability of extinction due to resource wars between artificial distinction of haves and have-nots .

Ironic note :
In the Carrot scenario , overpopulation does not matter . The more hands the merrier .
The only scenario that gives a survival chance to Christian and Muslim Extremists .

"What's up , doc ?" Bugs Bunny .


Wednesday, August 24, 2011


Andre Willers
24 Aug 2011

Synopsis :
Every biological population on the planet has a small percentage of immortals .This is the equivalent of long-range time-wise communication tendrils in the small-world model .

Discussion :
Ageing was assumed to be function of number of iterations in age . This has been disproved experimentally .
See "NewScientist " 6 Aug 2011 p 43 " Life begins at 90"
Ageing can be halted and even reversed .

The normal procedure is evolutionary , dependant on the smallest maximum age of reproduction . In other words , an epigenetic mechanism using histone wrapping . The system watches other parts .
This can be spoofed .
You can halt ageing , since the mechanisms are already there .
Reversing them is slightly harder .

Ironic . These mechanisms will become irrelevant as we go into the Singularity .

You want to live forever in this decrepid locale ?


The California Big Earthquake

Earthquakes and Volcanoes IV
Andre Willers
24 Aug 2011

Synopsis :
The Big One for California is expected with epicenter at about 38 N , 126 W around September 5 , 2011 . In the sea , off Los Angeles . Expect big tsunamis .

Discussion :
See "Earthquakes and Volcanoes II" 27 Feb 2010
It was argued that major quakes will occur at 30 degree Longitude due to spiral magma formations in the magma .

Note sequence of experienced quakes :
38 N 78 W magnitude 5.8 24/8/2011 Virginia quake
40 N 107 W magnitude 3.1 11/8/2011 Colorado quake

The next in sequence is
40 N 135 W magnitude 8.8 to 9.1 Sept 5 , 2011 LA Big One .
Then Hawaian Islands .

"Quote:Expectations : from "Earthquakes and Volcanoes II" 27 Feb 2010
To the West of Chile or Haiti (75 degrees West.)
1. 75+30 = 105 degrees West. Guadaljara (Mexico )
2. 75+2*30= 135 degrees West. Juneau (Alaska)
3. 75 + 3*30 = 165 degrees West . Hawaian Islands "

Effects :
Surprisingly little if sufficient warning is given .
Lessons from Japan ,
Tsunami's are the main threat . And nuclear reactors' cooling systems have to be hardened .

Three big threats :
1, What if Yellowstone Super-volcano goes ?
The main threat is pumice clouds . North America uninhabitable .

Humans now have sufficient clout to prevent a worst-case scenario .
Use nuclear charges to rip open the Yellowstone magma chambers to the north-west . Discharge the volcanic ash and pumice into the arctic gyre .

2, What if Verde Islands go ?
Threat is 60 meter tsunamis on coasts of America , Europe , England .
Once again , vaporize the island using nukes . A dust cloud is survivable , tsunamis's on this scale are not .

3.What if US government takes no precautionary measures and disaster happens ?
Instead of emerging stronger than ever , the state fragments . Nuclear civil war spreads . Humans become extinct . Circa 2020 AD in this scenario .

You have two weeks .


Thursday, August 18, 2011

Financial Terrorism

Financial Crisis: 18 Aug 2011 : Financial Terrorism
Andre Willers
18 Aug 2011

Synopsis :
Financial terrorists are suborning techniques of Financial Raiders to destabilize world markets .

Discussion :

Financial Raiders :
They used short-selling and rumour spreading to manipulate prices on Aug 3 and Aug 4 , 2011 . They like to artificially depress the markets during the middle of the week , allowing for a rebound during Friday to offload their exposure over the weekend .
They try to ride and drive the markets down , making money by using the freedom of the markets .

Financial Terrorists :
Events on Thu , Aug 18 , 2011 are different . Financial Raiders attempting the same trick have been hijacked by Financial Terrorists , aborting the recovery and pushing the downswing .

Counter-measures :

Democracies have strong measures against Terrorism , Financial or otherwise .

Market Freedom does not mean the freedom to shout "FIRE!" and rob those fleeing at the exits .

Riot Spillover :
There already has been riot spillover in the UK . It is starting in India . USA is next .
Then China and Russia .
This must be seen as a concerted attack , not a market correction .

The market mechanisms allowing this has been partially shut (ie limited ban on short-selling) , but much more is needed . The whole Hedge-fund and futures markets have become fellow-travellers of the Financial Terrorists .

Tragedy of the Commons Perception :
The Terrorists have created a perception via the media that cooperation is dead and it is every man for himself . Make money out of the decaying carcass .

This would have been true if not for the Social Media .
Note the Sweeping-up spontaneous organizations in the UK , Egypt , Libya , etc .

Cooperation is rallying faster than destruction .

Leaders should hurry to get in front of the people they are leading .


Sunday, August 14, 2011

Super tastes and evolutionary restraint.

Super tastes and evolutionary restraint.
Andre Willers
14 Aug 2011

The spectrum of bad tastes is mirrored by the spectrum of good to super good tastes .
Bad tastes are automatically self-limiting . Super good tastes are limited by epigenetic switches to protect host organisms .

Another episode in the Plant-Herbivore Wars .
Good tastes (read smells as well) only persist if they have some reproductive significance . If it too overwhelming , the smeller gets eaten in too large numbers .
So , an evolutionary restraint develops .

Plants thus have genes that code for super tastes , but do not express them . Now add inter-plant competition and random variation . A huge variety and number of gradients of super tastes develop .

Quorum mechanisms develop .
Plants sit and watch each other .
Human cultivation activates some better tastes in competition (why mono-cultures do not taste as good )

Mother's little helpers :
Bacteria and yeasts are tied into the system as clients of the plants .
This has profound implications for gut flora .
I estimate that 1/3 of 1/3 (~ 11%) of sensory taste is derived from gut feedback .
The inferences for the immune system are obvious .

Many bacteria (at least 1/3) are programmed to aid plants in restoration after severe environmental stress . They need a super taste to be eaten and replicate . To do that , they remove some earlier wrappers around the DNA structure , allowing expression of super taste DNA . ( A purely epigenetic mechanism)

This knowledge enables us to make super tastes to order by manipulating stressors .

I suspect , but proof is needed , that many systemic diseases like diabetes can be suspended by super-tastes . The super-taste chemicals should have profound effects on insulin permeability of cell-walls , as well as mitochondria (of course)

An example you can do :

Super-rolls :
1.Start with bought yeast baked rolls . (Even 180 C baking temperatures will leave enough hardened bacterial kernels and epigenetic markers)
2.Freeze the roll (about minus 5 C normal freezer)
3.Microwave frozen roll for about 60 seconds at 900 W . Note that this is not equivalent to thawing . Microwaving gives internal bacteria a huge relative advantage to competitors from the outside – an information block .
4.Stand for about 6 hours after halving and smearing with butter.
(This is the crucial stage . Fermentation resumes with super taste DNA being expressed . The butter layer on the inside captures the essence . This concentrate is what the mouth tastes .)
5. The bacteria "thinks" it just went through a giant meteor impact (baking) , then a nuclear winter (freezing) , then a rapid thaw (microwaving) with intense competition coming – ie outside bacteria . It needs to be very appealing – ie tasty to maximize reproduction .
6. Varying the ingredients and analyzing the butter layer will give new and super tastes . This can be automated on a computer chip .
7. Sourdough will give a larger genetic variance , but baker's dough will give more of a selective pressure towards Taste .

Rull Taste
Are Rull taste compulsions possible ? Gross ones , yes (Just follow the recipe above). Fine ones , no .The chaotic paths are too broad .
But Metamaterial tastes/scents are possible that can compel behaviour down single neuron pathways .

Design-a-taste anyone ?


Friday, August 12, 2011

Why Whales are so large .

Why Whales are so large
Andre Willers
12 Aug 2011

Synopsis :
Vertical migration in the ocean between each breath recycles nutrients into the sunlit layers of the ocean , stimulating phytoplankton-krill-whale positive feedback cycle . The bigger the whale , the more krill , the more whales , etc

Discussion :
See "Givers of Life" by Steve Nicol in NewScientist 9 Jul 2011 p36 .
This is an excellent overview by an actual researcher .

Critical points :
1.Nutrients tend to sink after concentration into plant cells . Small animal faeces like krill sink by 100 – 1000 metres a day . The thermocline acts as a trapdoor , excacerbating the effect in summer or global warmaing .

2.Mammals have to breathe at the surface . This forces a vertical migration with each breath , mixing things up in at least three ways :

2.1 Wake turbulence and Coanda Effect (Google it) . Large volumes of water are transported up and down . It is part of whale's reduction to water-flow resistance . The bigger the whale , the better .

2.2 Nutrient scavenging from the depths and faeces plumes at surface . Size helps .

2.3 Floating reservoirs of nutrients in krill are eaten and excreted as faeces plumes in the sunlit zones , preventing loss of vital nutrients like iron . This stimulates phytoplankton , which stimulates krill , which stimulates whales . The bigger the whales , and the more of them , the better .

Social effect and mini-ecology :
A pod of whales use their sonar calls to coordinate their vertical migrations to create a nutrient rich mini-ecology around the pod . They farm the sea .
Other species benefit . Fishing is good .

Note that the minimum survival size is a pod , and the techniques are learned .
Think of the pod as a farming village in 3-dimensional oceanic terms .

A lonely whale is a hungry whale

The feedback effect here would be as the cube of the number of whales and their size . A very strong effect , leading quickly to large numbers and maximum possible sizes .

This was indeed the case as late as 17th century Whale , fish and wild bird populations were about 100 times larger than at present . Google it .

The Fly-by effect :
Whale pod ecologies moving past a coast would have significant effects on local crustaceans and inshore fishing .
The same is applicable for coral reefs . Blanching is be ameliorated by temperature-layer mixing .
The Australian Great Barrier reef can be saved through whale pods doing a fly-by
Coral atolls the same .

Without them there would be a desert .

Whales seems to have been the key-stone eco species .

The Bad News :
This seems bad , since humans reduced whale numbers so drastically .

The Good News :
1.The feedback effect is very strong (cubed effect) and can be applied per pod .
2.Pod-package : similar to human civilization package .
Symbiotic and commensal species of fish , phytoplankton , krill , dolphins , orcas , can be used to accelerate repopulation , under strict human protection .
3.Commercial Demand :
Whale Pods and their symbiotic humans can negotiate their own terms for ecological beneficiation for coral islands , fisheries , barrier reefs , etc .
In a warming world , the Whale Union will be a powerful force .

Whales and Dinosaurs :
Whales are the largest animals that ever lived .
Sea dinosaurs did not need to breathe air . Hence no vertical migration .
Hence no feedback effect for size .

Hippo's are a branch of whales (from long ago) . They also create a mini-ecology in their pool by stirring things up . Especially in the dry season . The pools are stagnant . The only thing stirring up nutrients are hippo's . The other species depend on them . The eco-system collapses without them .
Which is why humans put up with bad-tempered hippo's in Africa . They were essential to a functioning ecosystem .
(Or , to put it more elegantly , the tribe that killed them perished .)

Which makes me wonder why they were not domesticated .
Maybe an attempt was made around the Makgadigadi Sea , and what we have are the descendants of the untamable ones . Similar to buffalo and kwagga .
See "Makgadigadi Sea" Aug 2009

The Human-Whale interaction .
There is fairly good evidence that a crucial human bottle-neck experience took place about 190 000 to 200 000 years ago on the Agulhas plains during an ice-age .The only thing enabling them to survive was the annual whale pods flying by , fertilizing the Agulhas Banks .

This survives to this day . The locals are fanatical in protecting the whales . No large scale whaling has ever taken place . They have long forgotten the reasons for it , but like any good religious proscription , it persists .

Whale watching is a major industry today .
Local South Africans and others gather to watch the phallic plumes of whale-breath spume new life into the banks .

Every time the whale pods go by , the poor over-fished abalone , crayfish and other fisheries are invigorated and struggle on .

Having a whale of a time .


Saturday, August 06, 2011

Financial Crisis 7 Aug 2011 : Disguised Defaults

Financial Crisis 7 Aug 2011 : Disguised Defaults
Andre Willers
7 Aug 2011

"The Truth is out there" X-files

Synopsis :
Defaults disguised as rollovers , decreased interest rates , Quantitive easing or simply more debt means a smaller series of income streams in future . Stock Markets are designed to pick these up and register the abrupt decrease in the Present Value of these income streams . This translates as a sudden decrease in share prices , ie a crash

Discussion :
This is why the stock markets fell sharply on 3 to 5 Aug 2011 .
The USA default on Aug 2 , 2011 was averted as far as the banking system was concerned , but the stock valuations picked it up . Prices adjusted accordingly .
Panic set in . Etc , etc .

Estimate of size of fall :
The present value of stocks should fall by at least the amount of default .
The markets are interconnected , so must be seen on global scale for a macro-argument like this .
Capitalizations of world exchanges ~ $ Tr 120
Defaulted debts USA , EU ~ $ Tr 15

Expected stock price fall of 15/120 ~ 12.5 %
Fall already occurred (at Aug 7, 2011) ~ 7 %
Fall expected to occur week 9-12 Aug 2011 ~ 5%

When is it safe to get back into the water ?
Not while the DOW > 11 100 (= 12 700 x (1-0.125)
Wait till it falls below , then come in on the uptick and take your chances .

Stress between banking system and stock exchanges .
As seen above , the shareholders took their lumps . But the banking sector still is overvalued by 12% . They cannot forgive debt (by law) . The only default for the small individual is bankruptcy and homelessness .
In essence , the banking sector continues to collect debts that has already been paid .
This is seen as unfair . All sorts of hardwired mechanisms kick in .

This is a recipe for revolution . (Ask Hosny Mubarak.)

USA is the most vulnerable state (then China) :
Quantitive Easing III without small-debt forgiveness and reform of the banking system will mean the end of the Union that George Washington , Lincoln and FDR (cf New Deal) worked for . (Bad news for the rest of the planet.)

Social media (like Facebook) is the new element that prevents a replay of the end of the Roman Republic .

On a personal note :
I find the succession of talking heads on the media saying that they do not understand the stock market crash sickening .
The stock market system is working exactly as advertised , discounting lies .

The King has no clothes , but for a modest profit they will sell him a fig-leaf .
And singing lessons for the horse .