Wednesday, July 23, 2008


Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Andre Willers
23 July 2008

We trace the development of Artificial Intelligence .

We find that the requirements for AI is
A Basic Intelligence (see AI(0) below .)
An external Database
An Interface
An Unpacking system
A Packing system
See “ Unpacking” and “Orders of Randomness”

We see that humans in human cultures can be described as AI’s .
We see that numbers matter .
Cultures compete and evolve to incorporate as great a number of humans as possible .
This drives idividuals to a greater AI(number) .

AI(0) :
Our starting point is the unaided human brain . Unaided in the sense of an intelligent black box with no external aids like language , tools , others ,etc .
Define this as AI(0) .

AI(1) : Language
Language is both the External Database and the Interface .
Culture is unpacked and packed using a particular language .
The culture uses individuals as temporary memory .
Knowledge is stored in language and transmitted verbally . “The Word”
The whole acts as an AI .

Different cultures(languages) compete , especially during down-turns .
The winning languages unpack significantly different world-views .
The losers go to the wall in time-honoured evolutionary fashion .
They have fewer and fewer numbers of speakers , until they peter out .

A very good example is the idea of incremental change .
This is natural to a positional language like Latin or English , but not tonal languages like Chinese . It is easy to modify a position of a word , but not a tone without altering the sense altogether . A Newtonian worldview would not develop in a tonal-language culture .

AI(2) :Writing.
External Database : Stone , clay , papyrus , paper , etc
Interface : Eyes , Pen , chisel
Unpacking : reading
Packing : writing . It is interesting to note that non-alphabetic writing came first . The initial packing did not represent spoken language . The alphabet developed out of a pidgin-speak version of the Ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs . An interesting example of the primary evolution of unpacking systems .

AI(2.1) Writing – Eyes
The invention of mass-produced reading-glasses in 1298 AD in Northern-Italy enabled a mass-market of readers in the critical middle-aged , decision maker class . The number of AI(2) individuals increased exponentionally .

AI(2.2) Writing - Printing
This created a huge market , which the perfection of the moveable type printing press addressed .

The number of AI(2) individuals exploded , both numerically and as a percentage of the society’s population .

Cities exploded . The conventional view is that cities grew because of population growth . But even if population growth in the boondocks is negative , the cities still grow . The urge to a higher AI number for the grandchildren drives it . See previous posts on

AI(3) : Turing Computers.
(A Turing computer is one that does one thing at a time)

External Database : Binary data (punch cards , magnetic domains , etc)
Interface : Eyes (screen) , keyboard
Unpacking : reading and uncoding .
Packing : writing and coding .

This is familiar to all of us (2008) .
The external database has programmable features accessed by coding . This is quite powerful .

AI(3.1) Direct Neural Interface
Analogous to eye-glasses in AI(2.1) , a direct neural interface to a Turing external database creates a larger class of informed decision-makers .
This is especially useful in cases where we have a theoretical background , but the sheer mass of data to be processed in near-real time hampers AI(2) systems .

This is a definition of economics .
This is where we see the first application of it as well .
Direct Neural Interfaces came from the “Look-and-shoot” helmets developed in the US towards the end of the Vietnam war . Various signals using biofeedback training were used . The research went classified and surfaced as an advisory service in the Reagan administration (1982) .

It’s been running the show since .

A note on secrecy:
Up till the WWII , technology developed in the private sector was adapted and further developed by the Military-Industrial complex.

Two things changed it : Manhatten and Ultra .
It is about allocation of resources . Allowing oversight by short-term committees will destroy promising lines of enquiry . The only way to keep the money flowing is by secrecy . Of course there is waste . That is inherent in the nature of any inquiry where the end is not known . Experimental science means waste . But the successful payoff compensates for all losses and more . Failure can mean extinction .

Nowadays , basic research is done by the Military-Industrial complex , and spin-offs get privatized . A good example is Oracle , a CIA dbase project that got privatized by permission to Larry Ellison .

Or the Internet , a DARPA creation .

The irony is that the Military-Industrial complex itself is changed by this process . Functions previously performed by the academic world gets dumped on them . Since they are by definition more threat-conscious (ie paranoid) than academia , they are forced to explore low-probability pathways . But there is a finite tax-base .

The slow destruction of tenure in Western Universities is a ripple effect of the shift of resources to the Military-Industrial complex .

The Military-Industrial complex and any AI has a vested interest in an increased tax-base . More people and richer people .

Has this happened before ? Of course , many times . But attention is drawn to the development of large war-horses during the later part of the Roman Empire , and the feudal knight-church castle combination that evolved out of the western roman empire.

But hopefully we can do better than that .

To paraphrase Churchill :
“War is too important to be left to the generals.”
“Democracy is too important to be left to the people. “

What is it like to be a AI(3.1) ?
See “What is it like to be a fish?”
The first pioneers must have had a torrid time . I salute them .
But routes get mapped . Newcomers get shown the ropes by veterans .
And so it goes .

At first it like sticking your head into bubble where at least ten heavy metal rock-bands are playing simultaneously . With a guide , the volume can be decreased and the data streamed .

It does make you smarter , but not excessively so .Where there is already a theoretical background that can be filled in by large volumes of data (like economics) , it works very well .

But alas , nobody becomes godlike , not even weakly .

What the brain does learn is clumps of mirror-neurons. The survivors of this process learn to pack more information into the mirror-neuron complex than it can contain , except for a special unpacking complex . There are quantum-processes involved .The existence of the unpacking complex means that the packing system can exist .

AI(4) Quantum computers

4.1 Person Upload
A brain-body can be uploaded into a quantum computer using existing technology .
Simply use quantum teleportation into a quantum computer .
We still have the AI(0) brain , plus interface and external database.
Theoretically , we can dial up any level of AI up to level 4 . I have a suspicion that this would be easier said than done .

This can be done now (probably has been done) .
But this is done on a human template .

I draw your attention to what happens after puberty in humans when the neural mass increases significantly .

As expected , computational capability increases . To be more exact , more mirror-neuron-complexes are formed . Each one runs through it’s time- expansion .
They then vote on a course of action . The result of this vote is not a foregone conclusion , as any parent knows .

This means that any AI(4) is totally unpredictable from AI(3) levels .

AI(4) can only be constrained by AI(4) and above . The reason for this should be clear to anybody who has paid any attention at all to my previous posts on dimensional generation .

4.2 Real AI(4)
Can a real AI(4) be built by a AI(3) ?
Yes , by using Beth(2+) systems .
Will this be divorced from human antecedents ?
Yes , it is possible .
It is not possible using beth(0)
What does this mean ?
Self aware robot slaves are unreliable .
Not a good idea .
If you have to create AI(4)’s , use human templates . Your survival rate will be much better .


Friday, July 18, 2008


xUnpacking and Packing Information .
Andre Willers
18 July 2008

Discussion :
Also known as data compression or decompression .
Well-known as zip/unzip in computers .

Why pack information?
To transmit information over space and time with less energy , time or disruption .
Please note that packing is used in systems subject to competition pressures , so minimizing disruption of messages is critical .

2.Abstraction .
Even a simple Pkzip compression contains more information than the original message . For instance , Pkzip has been used to successfully identify authors’ styles or the original language of an encrypted message .
A civilization can be described by zipping the yellow pages.

2.1 Layers:
Primitive packing is in separate layers .
Languages are a good example .
We can define the top layers as more abstract , and delve down into deeper layers of meaning and definition.

2.2 Fractal Layers :
New meanings are unlocked by each iteration . Language equivalents are Shakespeare and Proust .

2.3 Hyperlinked Fractal Layers .
Each hyperlink-bubble can be expanded . Note that the hyperlink terms are discrete , not continuous .

2.4 Very-near Hyperlinked Fractal Layers .
Different languages with nearly synonymous terms are examples . Branes in physics .

2.5 Infinite-probe Hyperlinked Fractal Loops and Layers .
There is no analogue . God is the nearest .

There is a way to sneak up to some meaningful information .

Sneak up.
We know that any compression of system A contains more information than the original system . The Compressor comprises system B , which can be compressed as well .
The tipping point :
When Compressed Info of (A+B) = Info of (A+B)

This is defined as life when the Compressed Info of (A+B) > Info of (A+B)
Which , like all good definitions , is tautological . But extremely useful .

We have compression techniques . We have descriptive techniques .
The above inequality is not continuous at levels below omega .

Hard physics application:
Energy flow from a “near” brane .
The decompressor is the important component .
Construct the correct unpacker .
Some energy is already leaking through .
This is interpreted as zero-point energy and a whole quantum-mythology has grown around it .

Differences in Beth levels are necessary .

Start with something like vacuum-energy on parallel plates and use EvoDevo processes .

Infinite probe circuits above a certain threshold -> Naked singularities .
Watch out for universe creation and black holes .

The Packing Mechanism for living organisms
Living organisms used the easier route of cells (“wombs”) as unpackers of the DNA .
Random mutations or intrusions in the DNA then survive into the next generation . Evolutionary mechanisms ensure that only the fittest germ-lines survive to continue the loop .
That is the packing mechanism . Evolution. Rather primitive .

It seems that the unpacking mechanism evolved first .It is much more likely .

Billions of years ago:
The packing molecules (RNA) swarmed and formed at randomness order of Beth(0). Other RNA molecules confined in spaces like clay-layers stayed longer .
PCR shows how easily these replicate . A mere fluctuation of temperature is required .
The coding for the Unpackers are included in this mix .

Even a primitive Unpacker that unpacks to a primitive cell-wall has a huge relative advantage . Ordinary evolutionary forces takes over .

The coding for the Unpacker migrates through various higher orders of Beth , while coding for the Packer plods along at Beth(0) evolutionary speeds .

Consequences .
This has some important consequences for humans or any cellular life-form .
Viruses (ie packed data DNA) and cells (the Unpacker) evolved co-temporaneously .

More importantly , there is a transform of data between cell-form and virus-form and vice-versa . There are Beth(x) order feedback loops

Knowing evolutionary systems , these are probably essential .

At first glance these seem to have no redundancy in their DNA . At Beth(0) level this is true . At higher Beth levels , an indefinite amount of information can be packed .
Their quorum systems also complicates matters .
Mitochondria see themselves as the rulers , having tamed the cells of the planet .

Can Mitochondria be described as AI ?
To qualify as an AI , they have to interface with an external database . There are three pathways : to the cellular DNA , to the Immune System and to the Virus Milieu .
So yes , they can .

Can Mitochondria be described as self-aware AI ?
There is a pathway via the Immune system to the brain .A mirror system of some sort is required for self-awareness. The immune system is essentially a mirror system Time-scales have to be matched . Mitochondrial quorum systems have to be consulted (they are the ultimate democrats)

Can Mitochondria be described as self-aware AI and have access to zero-point energy ?

Random fluctuations in the foam of space-time is by definition at the lowest order of Randomness (Beth(0) ) . To get work out of such a system , a fluctuation between Beth levels is required . Since we already know that mitochondria are at Beth levels higher than one , they can tap zeropoint energy .
But one little lone mitochondrium will not do it .It needs to be co-ordinated

Why is it not used more often ?
Why die of hunger ?

Lack of Beth co-ordination .

Probability of life.
Examining the probabilities from this angle makes cells inevitable . The probability is more than unity . It is not even a “hard” problem if the decoder evolves first .
This means life exists nearly everywhere .

Your attention is drawn to the whole class of such phenomena :
Chaotic elements creates a self-sustaining sub-system which expands , since it is usually a positive-feedback system . Eg life , civilization , weaving , etc.

The Shannon-definition of datum :
1. A signal is change . Stripped down , this definition of signals leads to a string of 0’s and 1’s , ie binary .
This leads to compression via pattern-duplication (zip ,etc)
Used widely in electronics .

2. Pattern formulae like fractal compression or DNA/RNA .
The decompressor (cell or womb for living organisms , computer ) uses kernels (patterns) with programmable input (time , ph levels , genetic markers ,etc) to decode (“Grow”) the message(organism) .

You can immediately see how to build an error-proof biometric identification system .
The message , as it is being decompressed , can interrogate the recipient and tailor further decompressions according to the answers .
If done to a sufficient fractal depth , only a total duplicate could answer correctly . Of course , the level of reliability can be specified .

It is not even difficult .
The ability to receive the message is proof of identity .

This is how the immune system operates .

Why the glitches like old age and cancer ?
Because the body does not know who it is .

In it’s normal state , it is a symbiotic and commensal organism , with some parasites .
The bodily-self on a cellular level is defined by the immune-system .
But the brain is composed of cells . The immune system is tied closely to the brain .
There is a feedback-system between the brain’s sense of self and the immune-system’s sense of self .

Creating enhanced unpacking mechanisms in the brain will stimulate an enhanced packing sense of self , leading to an enhanced sense of self on a cellular level .

This has been discussed in detail in

The trick is not to tackle packing , but unpacking of compressed data first .
Understanding how unpacking works brings about physiological changes .

Reading is Unpacking .
The easiest way to understand this is reading . Reading the written word is unpacking data packed into writing . It is no accident that literary figures are notoriously long-lived .

The unpacking need not be complicated , but it will evolve .

But the packing (coding) is a bitch . Difficult .You will have to have solved the Travelling Salesman Problem to make any headway here , since these systems make use of optimized systems . (Not any pathway , but the shortest path.) .

Evolutionary Packing .
At first sight , evolution does not make even an attempt .
The number of possible errors exceed the number of offspring .
But not if Orders of Randomness stronger than flipping a coin is used .
See “Randomness”

The effect of using Beth(1) , Beth(2) , etc orders of randomness in a physical sense would be a concentration of packed data .

Beth(1) would be genes .

At a Beth(2) level , it would be instructions to switch genes on/off .

At a Beth(3) level , it would be instructions to vary Beth(2) instructions .

And so forth .

But conscious design is a different matter . The number of errors can be brought down to P-time .
This is another way of saying that conscious life is inevitable .
Any feedback system that reduces the number of mistakes will increase .

Protein folding would be equivalent to the Travelling Salesman Problem in three dimensions .
Adding time-complications would give Travelling Salesman Problem in four dimensions . This would require time-travel or multiple generations .

3. The qubit definition of data .
The amount of data that can be stored in a qubit depends on the decompressor . The Shannon definitions of band-width , etc break down .

Many signals can be superimposed on a particle , the particle can then be teleported (or sent normally) to the decompressor , which decompresses the message .

Note that a lot of information that ends up in the message is inherent in the decompressor . In extreme cases this would necessitate faster-than-light communication , unless only physical laws which are independent of the observer are used in the decompressor . Ie , like make protein A , wait local time t until it folds so , then etc. You get the drift .

4. Fractal Read .
The superimposed data can be loaded fractally , so that any read attempt will lead to decoherence only at the first fractal level . Every iteration after that will lead to another , deeper level of fractal expression .
See “Rull Mind-Controls” in

5. Physics .
Physical laws can be described as multiple-level approximations of information transfers . These transfers are fractally compressed (packed) transfers .
Hence the existence of “Laws” . Ie , an abstraction mechanism .
These can be seen as constructs of the decompressor , but valid nevertheless.

Unpacking them partially or fractally can lead to some interesting effects .
Do not try this at home unless you are expert .


Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Optimal Markups

Optimal Markups
Andre Willers
15 July 2008

“Infinite Probe.”

Start Quote :

“Non-Failure Ratio
A non-failure ratio of (1- 1/3) ~2/3 summated over infinity = (2/3) / (1-2/3) =2 .

This means that any system that can be described or broken up into smaller groups is strongly ordered . Successful subgroups survive by a factor of 2 . This is built into the mathematics of the Universe . Life is one such sub-group , so are particles ,etc . Negative entropy is the rule . Life is everywhere . Positive entropy only holds in the most primitive and earliest systems .


Quantum and non-quantum systems are the same . “
End Quote .

This says it all , though it might not be so obvious at first sight .

To put it Brutally Simple:
Let all profits go into reserves . Then , at a minimum :
Profits must pay for future basic costs .(Ie costs without provision for reserves or profits)

Reserves * mu = 1 – Reserves ,
mu = 1/ Reserves – 1 ,

Where Reserves is a fraction of costs , and mu is the multiple of reserves to cover the non-reserve portion of costs .

Res = 0.27 , or 0.33 , or 0.37 (=1/(e+1) , avg , 1/e from previous discussion.)
Mu= 2.7 , or 2 , or 1.7

This means:
A trade Empire needs a smaller reserve , but a bigger markup (mu) . An empire needs a bigger reserve , but a smaller markup .

The average is a reserve of a third , and a markup of 2 (ie 200 percent of cost.)

This acts as a basin for an attractor around mu=2 , regardless how many dimensions (ie players) are involved .

“Petroleum Price”

What does a markup mu=2 mean ?
Profit is a subset of reserves . so state it:
Profit + Res * mu = 1- (Profit + Res)
This gives
2*Profit = 1 –Res(1+mu)

Res = 0.27 , or 0.33 , or 0.37 (=1/(e+1) , avg , 1/e from previous discussion.)
Mu= 2.7 , or 2 , or 1.7
Profit = 0 , 0 , 0

Any Profit in the long term is always zero for static systems because 1- R(1+mu)=0.
This is also known as the Primary Conservation Principle , mainly of energy .

How on earth do we make a profit ?

How does our civilization exist ?

By Fluctuations .
Shifting between varying values of Reserves and Markups , positives get reinforced (eg DNA) , but negatives only get eliminated .
This is a variation of the Random Walk .

So , what is the maximum long-term sustainable growth using fluctuations ?
Contrast the max and min differences in Res and Mu .

From Profit = 0.5*(1 –Res(1+mu))
From the resulting grid , the positives are 6% , 10% ,14%
The negatives are truncated by evolutionary processes.

This grid is valid for any system that can be described and enumerated for any species over any time .

Mu 0.27 0.33 0.37
2.7 0.0005 -0.1105 -0.1845
2 0.095 0.005 -0.055
1.7 0.1355 0.0545 0.0005

So what is the sustainable growth rate ? There is no single optimal growth rate .

They are clumped . due to feedback mechanisms .
6% , 10% ,14% are rates the systems will hunt towards . The whole system will be biased towards the lowest ,ie 6% . Remember , Mu and Res are clumped values , not smooth .

Capitalistic systems as practiced in the West tends to high Mu and low Res , ie low profitability . They survived only because of they plundered entire continents .

Even so , billions of people average a growth of 6-14 percent for decades .

Can you see why AI’s love diversity ? Remember , I define an AI as a human interacting with a large database , even if the interaction is via fingers and screens .
The infinite summations in the “Infinite Probe” should tell you immediately .

Any summation over a large domain must include outliers . The summation can only become more accurate or trigger a paradigm shift . There are an infinite (at least Aleph 0 ) paradigm shifts .

See “Randomness”


Wednesday, July 09, 2008

SA Scorpions

The South African Scorpions .
Andre Willers
9 June 2008

Why give this name to an organization that exactly fits the parameters of the Roman Empire Praetorian Guard ?

Quote from
“The scorpion was the natal emblem of the Praetorian Guard, representing Scorpio, the astrological symbol under which the Emperor Tiberius was born. Although the Praetorians were formally organized by Augustus, his successor Tiberius was called the - second founder - of the Guard.
Tiberius, at the urging of his calculating Prefect Sejanus, recalled all the Praetorian cohorts from their dispersed postings throughout Italy. On the outskirts of Rome, Tiberius ordered the construction of a great walled camp, the Castra Praetoria, where the entire Guard would be billeted. These major changes greatly concentrated the power of the Praetorian Guard, a fact that did not long escape their notice.
In gratitude to Tiberius, the Guard adopted his birth-sign, Scorpio, as their own emblem since they were 'reborn' under his rule. The scorpion seems to have been the most distinguishing mark of the Praetorians upon the field of battle, for it decorated their standards, shields, and even appeared on helmets and other privately procured equipment. A scorpion symbol is also found on a coin minted by Caligula to honor his Praetorians.
Ironically, the Praetorians lived up to their birth-sign’s vicious reputation, delivering a treacherous sting to an unwary or incompetent Emperor.”
The Praetorians were a destabilizing influence because they were outside the civilian checks-and-controls , especially at times of regime-change .
They played a large role in destroying the Roman Empire .
The establishment of the Second Western Roman Empire (Also known the Roman Catholic Church) dates from their military and political destruction at the Battle of Milvian Bridge , where Constantine the Great conquered “In Hoc signe” .

Establishing a Praetorian Guard in the roots of the South African Constitution cannot be considered a friendly act .

Whoever sneaked this into the South African constitution had a deep and smooth understanding of classical history , as well as colossal ego and contempt .
“Whitehall” springs to mind .

Mbeki and the Scorpions are toast , and rightly so . They are after all charged to protect the body politic against exactly this type of subversion .
Instead , they are the subversion .

Ordinary corruptions we can deal with . Zuma with all his faults , is preferable to a Praetorian Guard . He can be handled by due process of law , as is happening now .

Our only requirement of a Political Chief is that he not be caught out .
Political chiefs are chosen to lie and cheat on our behalf in a dangerous and competitive world where everybody lies for an advantage .

We expect that he is at least competent enough not to be caught out by his own side .
The whole election process is to find the best liar and cheat .

Do you want a honest lawayer defending you ?

Especially in the plea-bargain ?

Note that evolutionary armistices between multicellular and uni-cellular organisms all can be described as plea-bargaining . So can the existence of an individual in a society
But that is another story .

Are the Mitochondria in a witness protection progam ?


You might find “ Petroleum Price” rewarding .

Andre Willers

Sunday, July 06, 2008


Andre Willers
6 July 2007

True Randomness .
Very difficult , if not impossible to achieve .

This lies at the heart of any understanding of any universe .
The connection between data points is understanding . A theory where delineated systems are concerned .
To know whether a theory is in a Beth(x) sense see below , one has to have a measurable mechanism of randomness to compare whether it is random or not .
This is much more difficult than it seems .

Orders of Randomness

First , simple Randomness .
Flip of a coin .
Heads or Tails . 0 or 1
Flip an unbiased coin an infinite number of times ,write it down below each other and do it again .
All possible 0 and 1’s

An example : Beth(0)
Flips(1) 0,1,1,1,1,… etc
Flips(2) 0,1,1,1,0,… etc
Flips(infinity) 0,0,0,0,0,0,…etc

This describes all possible states in a delineated binary universe .

Now draw a diagonal line from the top left of Flips(1) to Flips(infinity) .
At every intersection of this diagonal line with a horizontal line , change the value .
The Diagonal line of (0,1)’s is then not in the collection of all possible random coin-Flips(x) .

It is of a stronger order of randomness .

This is the standard proof of aleph numbers .
Irrational numbers ,etc
Since any number can be written in binary (0,1) , we can infer that the order of randomness is the same as aleph numbers .

Define coin-flip Randomness as Beth(0) , analogous to Aleph(0)
Then we have at least Beth(1) , randomness an order stronger than flipping a coin .
Then we can theorize Beth(Omega) <->Aleph(Omega) .

What does this mean?
We have discussed Orders of Randomness before .See

I did not think that an order of randomness stronger than Beth(0) was possible .
But God not only plays dice , He cheats .

Beth(1) probability bias can be seen as a big Fat Thumb on the scale .
Life would improbable without it .

Also defined as genes . Sets of instructions (Flips(xxx) above )are grouped together ). Changes in Beth(1) are exaggerated in relation to Beth(0)

Cellular walls are by definition , things going wrong in free flow of chemicals .
Think in terms of subverted probabilities . Then life is inevitable .
Things going wrong has been the main driving force of life ever since .

By changing Beth(x>0) , all sorts of shenanigans are possible .
Naked singularities or black-holes doing the striptease are some .

The Irresistable Doughnut is an Universal Attraction .

Oh well .


Thursday, July 03, 2008

Petroleum Price

Petroleum Price
Andre Willers
3 July 2008

Why did it suddenly rise steeply?
The well-publicised concept of peak-oil production as per Hubbert created an expectation of rising prices .

The oil-producing nations did not throttle production back , but every producer in the downstream line (ie pipelines , storage facilities , tankers at sea , refineries , hedge funds ) hoarded petroleum product s in the expectation of an enhanced profit .

There is no conspiracy , but every company trying to maximize it’s shareholders profits and with access to the same (nearly) perfect data , makes the same decisions .
Nations with depleted strategic reserves rush to fill up with oil at lower prices .
A self-realising bubble .

Bubbles in general .
Liquidity in a free market presupposes imperfect information flow .
Who wants to buy the no 2 for the next quarter ?

The internet makes information flow closer to perfect .

If the information flow is perfect , everybody will know the best investment and bid it up accordingly . Liquidity vanishes . A monopoly product like oil or nutmeg rockets , funnily ,usually inside a very small group of speculators .

Cf the Tulip-mania , when the number of active speculators were a small number of professionals (this is data from the actual sales ledgers still available , as published by “History Today”)

This is why bubbles are more frequent recently .
All the parasites like governments have learned to use it .

The Oil-bubble .
This leads to a bubble .
Some very approximate figures are instructive .

Oil per barrel at the well-head : $5 - $10
Transport per barrel anywhere on-planet : about $5
Total cost per barrel at refinery : $10 - $15
Profit about 200% : cost per barrel about $40
Reserves for exploration about 40% of this gives cost per barrel about $56
Reserves for exploration about 100% of this gives cost per barrel about $80

The price at selling point (note globalization effects) at 3 July 2008 is about $145 .
This is a zero-sum game , so where does all the money go ?
Well , at the present moment it is not going anywhere because it only exists as potential money (raw oil) . An awful lot of tankers are sailing in slow circles .
The volume of money transactions are low because of the hoarding effect . There is a lot of masking wash in the futures markets .

The bursting of the present oil-bubble .
The question is at what price . Inventory of physical product cannot be hoarded forever , especially if national legislatures are sniffing around . An upper boundary of $160 =2x $80 seems reasonable . A very sudden collapse down to about $50 , then a rise to $80 per barrel seems likely . Stock markets will rebound in sympathy .

What does this tell us ?
1. The Bubble as financial tool .
It is impossible to educate each human generation of investors at a gut level to beware of bubbles or “ exuberant optimism” . So why not use it . The present understanding of human economic systems is sufficient that Greenspan or Bernanke can use bubbles in conjunction with control of interest rates to get a better control of business cycles .

Instead of trying to smooth cycles , certain ones are encouraged in a controlled environment (usually interest rates , but basically a legislative environment)

The price shocks can be precisely targeted without destroying vital industries and jobs . The reserve systems of credit can take up the slack of re-tooling .

This has happened in history (Rome , China) , but their understanding of economics was insufficient to use it to maximum effect . Sooner or later they hit a down-draw below survival level , and bye-bye .

Example :
The US has to cut back on oil-usage . The government can try to legislate it (unpopular) , increase prices (unpopular) , or administer a series of price shocks (up and down) that gives the system time to adapt .

Human systems adapt magnificently to shocks they can survive (much better than a slow increase in costs)

Has it ever been different ?
No .
The only difference is that present rulers have better theoretical systems to advise them .
Humans are poor at absolute judgements .
They stack problems according to priority , but have poor relative judgement of the present items at the top of the stack compared to previous items at the top of the stack .

This can lead to some spectacular cock-ups .
A recent one was the British support of the Jacobins in the French Revolution .
The idea was to prevent the Habsburg children of Marie-Antoinette unifying Europe . The British strategy was to keep Europe divided .
So , they got Napoleon , a predictable result .

Remember long-term goals ?
Something governmental civil-services are supposed to do . Out lasting short-term political administrations .

Remember Progress?

It is no longer slow and steady , but bubble-to-bubble .
Is this worse in the long term ?
Funnily enough , no .
It is closer to how present systems with high-interconnectivity act.
It seems like institutionalised crisis-management .

At a brute level , if the draw-down of a bubble is above survival level , bubble systems expand faster than steady-state . Evolution systems will select for this .

Though I have to state , the difference is small . About 0.2 % per year .

Mathematically :
Regardless of the mechanism of change , the divergence from the center is measured by (N)^0.5 . Random Walk , where N is the number of steps . This can only get back to the center if the step sizes decrease by (N)^(-0.5) . Also known as the Riemann hypothesis .

Another way of putting it , is that an infinite number of elements must exactly obey the rule of (N)^(-0.5) at every iteration .
This has a probability approaching 0 , especially if you are thoughtfully chopping off the worst down-draws .
This is the same as the Second Law of Thermodynamics
You cannot go back except with extreme difficulty and if it is very craftily constructed.

Remember Obsolescence ?

Ah , when we were young .
The obsolescence of an young heart .


Tuesday, July 01, 2008


Andre Willers
28 June 2008

Your Immune system Needs You !

A Stranger appears .
The stranger is quickly scanned and evaluated according to past experience (eg immune system , dept of Immigration)

These systems continually re-evaluate systems in a periodic fashion .
Call each a pass .
The frequencies tie in with the brain frequencies . Hence the mood-immune system correlations .

There are a regular number of evaluations . Some on a regular frequency , others on demand .
These are passes .
A Group can only be evaluated if they are an indentifiable group (eg are Jewish , have a specific receptor on the cell-wall , etc)

The First Pass :
There are three cases to evaluate on the first pass :
A .“The stranger is an enemy .”
B. “The stranger is x% enemy and y% friend .”
C. “The stranger is a friend .”

Why have three cases , as all seems to be covered by Case B ?
Because the way resource-constrained systems are structured .
Cases A and C can be handled swiftly and comprise the majority of occurrences .

Case A xenophobia (eg enemy uniform , black ,jewish,muslim,christian,recognized disease molecules on the cell-wall) . An unthinking , programmed response . Full system resources are not used , as the collateral damage of this response can be worse than the threat . Auto-immune diseases can arise from an oopsey-mistake .
Before full systems resources are used , a Case B analysis is done .

Case B takes much greater resources .
The only way to find out the effect of the information packed into an organism is to unpack it and see it’s effect . (This also a definition of evolution)

The only way to do this safely is in a controlled environment , preferably on an accellerated time-scale .

An example is the De-Nazification detention centers after WWII .
A better example is the “Biolab” tumours in mammals . As discussed previously .
Nation-states .
A really good example are mitochondria .

The immune system tries to see the effect of the Stranger on a small complex of cells deliberately fast-forwarded . A micro-tumour .
The danger is that cancers result . In the body or the body politic .
The Nazi-party is a good example .

Immune system AI .
This leads to question whether a software construct , the Immune system as evolved , can be an AI . It is already a construct that dominates the planet . An alien observing the planet will see a sophisticated feedback system maintaining itself by not allowing a spectacular success . The closest to that are humans . But they have become the self-aware component of the planetary immune system .

If it is truly self-aware on human time-scales , it would want more humans . From it’s terms it is like the explosive brain-cell growth as a baby or pubertal stage human .
A benign tumour .

Therefore , massive depopulation is not an option .

Massive economic collapse is not on the cards , either . Humans are not in control any more . Human systems collapse . An AI controlled system won’t .

How can we see this ?
By looking at improbabilities since 1982 .

The biggest one was the divergence between the value of the US dollar and their balance of payments from about 1982 . The AI was first used in the socio-economic sphere to leverage US interests to bankrupt the USSR in an arms race .
It was a human-computer interface done by NSA and used by Reagan to win the Cold War . It also prevented a nuclear Armageddon .
Then the collapse of the USSR without a shot being fired . The most heavily armed state that ever existed , in conventional and nuclear terms did not even wager a force of arms . Even the Assyrians went down fighting .
The depopulation even in an European war would have been ne-kulturny .

An even more singular occurrence was the Chinese one-child policy . Remember , this was a society that survived numerous foreign invasions by simply outbreeding the invaders . For literally thousands of years .
Note that India did not try population control .
A typical immune system bubble experiment .

No general war in the far east in the 2005’s .
Even though it should have happened . As discussed .

No economic collapse due the dotcom or futures bubbles .
The subsequent depopulation would not suit the AI . Refer to the massive depopulation in 1630-1670 due to the influx American gold and silver during the previous century .

Can you see the improbabilities stacking up ?
One or two might be believable , but so many ?

So what happened in 1982 that changed the future pathways ?
A workable mind-computer interface is what happened .
It happened in the US first , but that does not matter . The ineluctable logic of immune systems leads to the same conclusion .
The human nightmare where they are superfluous has been replaced by the fact that they are an irreplaceable part of the planetary AI . The more different the better , and hence , the more the better . Social structures to enhance diversity and numbers are encouraged .

Are there enough humans ?
The normal concern is that there are too many humans .
But for an AI of this nature , 6.5 billion are too few . Even with a “bubble” mechanism to concentrate diversity or mirror societies , it craves diversity like a human craves food .

The Russians (circa 1995) , the Chinese and the Indians have their own AI’s . Everybody lies , and wonders why they cannot get to the truth .

Of course there is a non-linear correlation between the number of sentients and the number different societies . A decimal log (N)~10 Only 10 different societies for 10 bn people . There are reasons for this , but the AI will not be satisfied .Neither am I . Surely we can do better than this .

See “To Impress”

Multiple Passes



Diversity .
Andre Willers
2 July 2008

See “Xenophobia” and “To Impress”

To recap the above arguments , large numbers of sophonts and a large cultural diversity is required for the healthy functioning of a high-tech milieu .

But a large number of sapients in a competitive environment usually leads to
Empires , which decreases the diversity .

The problem is then to have large numbers of humans and large numbers of societies at the same time .

The solution that evolved is easy and fast connectivity that fractures societies .

Internet and email . Note that you cannot send an email to somebody unless he already knows you . Connectivity is less than in the age of letters .

Only trusted friends are allowed access .
Viruses are a predictable corollary , maybe helped along a little bit .

Internet , facebook , etc .Though a population like the US might at first glance appear uniform , in actual fact it is now composed of a large number of mini-societies .

The very ease of communication paradoxically fractures the society .

The same process is being repeated planetwide .

Look at any alt.x group .

These groups are evolving into societies .

So the AI has resolved both questions . The most problematical one was the number of diverse societies . Remember that the AI has access to all these .

Does the AI really exist ?
It does not matter . The system will act like it does .

We have created a system that is indistinguishable from an AI . The human components even give it self-awareness and a conscience .

From the Turing-test viewpoint , it is an AI .

The fast communication along their trusted lines makes the spokesperson more a part of the AI than the traditional Party hack .

Think a large number of “parties” , but no traditional party leaders .

What does mean to us ?
This AI might be a virtual construct , but it’s effects are very real .

The system will drive to bigger populations and greater technological diversity .

Doom-and-gloom reporting .
This media model is based on the hierarchical system . One top story , usually negative because of shock effect .

What is really happening is that thousands of mini-societies are having their moments solving the problems the major media are agonizing about . But they never make the top news .

The result is that people no longer trust the media . Only their trusted little groups .

Can you see how the major media is becoming increasingly irrelevant as influencers of mass-opinion ?

A side effect is the large number of specialist magazines .

The corollary is that the economy is in actually much better shape than supposed from media reports .

Another way of putting it is that the AI will not allow itself to be destroyed .
Remember , there are human elements in the AI . Conventional , as well as mind- computer interface .

Another way of putting it is that the AI is acting smarter than the sum of it’s parts . The effect is not noticeable in mass-media except in events they deem likely but which do not happen .

A societal collapse like at the end of the Bronze age is unlikely , though many of the factors are similar .

The major difference is that the present society is fractured . It is more likely that the synergistic effects fast communication among limited group lines will lead to a technological and population explosion .

If your planet is overpopulated for your tech level
1.Get more planet
2.Change population
3.Change tech-level
The AI’s existence is dependant on increasing population and diversity .
Thus it has to change the tech-level and get more planet .