WW IV – Isreali Strategy (July – Sept 2006)
The major consideration in any Israeli strategy is their small drawdown capacity . The nation and territory is small . It cannot soak up a first punch and counterattack like the US or Russia . From political realities , it means it has to do pre-emptive attacks just before the aggressors (Arabs , Muslims) make their attacks . This nearly led to disaster in the Yom Kippur war of 1973 , when the much vaunted Mossad was caught completely off guard by no less than three separate armies’ surprise attacks .
The US Bush’s approval rating for the Iraq war is 30% - 40 % This means that 60% – 70% of people in the US are against it . (2006)
This means that there is a very high probability that the US will withdraw troops from Iraq after 2008 . This will create a power vacuum that will be competed for by China , Russia , India . Most likely China , since it does not have the ideological baggage Russia and India have in the region .(Iran will try for a look-in , but China or India are both willing and able to flood the empty spaces of Iraq . The probability favours China (with Kurd surrogates) , since they have already done it successfully in Outer Mongolia , the Western Provinces of China , and Tibet . ) Russia simply does not have the manpower any more , and India will face very steep resistance from Pakistan .
The stark reality facing Israel , is that none of these nations has any special relationship with them . Their main ally , the US , can survive without Middle-East oil in a pinch , but will become distinctly second-rate to China if the US loses the oil to China . But the US will not go to a war of mutual destruction over the loss of the Middle East Oilfields .
US-USSR conflict was WW III (Also known as the Cold War.)
Define conflict between US-Russia-EU-Japan-China-India as WW IV.
Notice that there are 3! = 6 nations . See why this is stable in “Conspiracies” in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Ha! The next stability point is with 24 nations . Can this continue without an annihilation war? Maybe there is a paradigm for proceeding from stability point to stability point . 1 , 2 , 6, 24 , 168 , … , r! . We can only hope .
Notice the beauty of the Chinese population aggression algorithm !
Chinese couples inside China are subject to the one-child law . But outside China they can have as many children as local laws allow .
The most aggressive , innovative and entrepreneurial people emigrate and the breed to their capacity of support systems outside China . Beautiful !
The Chinese are family orientated . So the capital generated by restricting family-size (ie instead of rearing 1+5 children , the money spent on the 5 children is capital that can be invested) . Spread over 1 Billion people it powered the Chinese economic miracle . But many of these people want more children . So the most venturesome emigrate with some capital from their families . You can see where this leads to .
So , learn Chinese .
What distinguishes this from the previous population-explosion of the English-speaking peoples during the 18-19th centuries was that there was no enforced limitation on the number children in the home countries . but the child mortality was high .
Israel has a short term solution of starting a general war , with a nuclear resolution , or making a 6-pointed deal between US-Russia-EU-Japan-China-India . This balance is stable , and can be spun on and on .