Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Sunspots 2

Sunspots 2
Andre Willers
16 Jan 2008

See discussion in Appendix A on Vukcevic empirical approximations on sunspots.

From this it follows that in the present century , the maximum number of sunspots per 11 year cycle will decrease from 2007 until about 2050 , then rapidly increase again . The insolation will decrease by about 0.1% . This will partially mask CO2 heating .But the major effect will be stagheating . After 2050 , global heating and climate change will take off with a vengeance .

The poles will seem to be heating faster than the equator . (This effect is already seen) This is because CO2 heating is all over (the climate) , but insolation temperatures directly caused by sunlight is proportional to the Cos(degree of latitude) . The insolation also varies with sunspot activity , by about 0.1 %

Weather systems , especially wind-patterns , are driven by relative temperature differences , which are driven by insolation .

With stagheating :
Insolation decreases , but heating due to CO2 increases .
In general , winter wind-patterns persist into summer .

In the southern hemisphere the effect is easily predictable because there are few landmasses . More La Nino’s (not El Nino’s) . The westerly’s move north even in summer . Lots of rain and floods in South Africa , Australia and South America .

The Northern Hemisphere is more difficult because of the land-masses .In general , the rain-belts will move closer to the equator , but with much heavier rain .Think Sahara circa 8 000 BCE . The tropical monsoons will become more unpredictable . India will have one monsoon failure in five . After 2050 it will be more like 4 failures in 5 .

The picture is even bleaker in North America . Cold air from the north (remember relative cold due to reduced insolation) wedges the rainbelts far south . This has happened many times before in America’s history . Ferocious droughts lasting 80 – 150 years have happened , destroying entire civilizations . One such one is underway now . The American south-west has had about 30% normal rainfall for the last 15 years . The Oglalla aquifer is about exhausted . Yet they pump fossil water like tomorrow will never come . Mexico is even worse off .

Tectonic consequences.
Northern Hemisphere :
Expect increased seismic activity in the 6-7 Richter range , with a few big ones .

Arctic ice was about 6 feet above sea-level and locked into the Arctic circle . When this melts , it has to go somewhere . Surprise , surprise . It has to flow south . This is in addition to the normal circular ocean current . All these trillions of extra tons of mass has to be accelerated to the speed of rotation at the equator . The paddle is the Eastern Seaboards of the continents . It is simple physics .

The old , usual currents had dredged channels , but all this new water surges up against the eastern margins of the continents . The regions close to the shore become turbulent and turbid from massive oceanic rivers flooding from the Arctic . Small fish fry cannot survive . Fish species like cod who previously bred in protected estuaries and harbours , now had to move elsewhere . The cod population off the north-eastern Newfoundland coast did not collapse because the scientists got their numbers wrong . It collapsed because their breeding grounds and habitat got washed away . The shore and continental shelf was scoured away . The cod went into the deep ocean (see below)

The stresses on the North American continent are enormous . It has to accelerate millions of tons of extra water mass from zero to about 1500 mph . The stresses gets transmitted to the interior . The North American continent has a major fault : The Mississippi-Missouri valley . In 1812 there were 3 major quakes over 8 on the Richter scale in the Missouri valley . Literally , thousands of square hectares got lifted hundreds of meters . This can be seen now . This area is overdue for a major quake .
New York has the Ramapo fault : an offshoot of the Missouri fault right underneath it.

I draw your attention to two massive spikes in solar activity in 1765 and 1795 . The polar runoff from this probably triggered the Missouri quakes .

Japan and China are not any better off .
Arctic floods are exerting enormous acceleration pressures on the eastern shores of Japan especially . This is an area overdue for a large earthquake .

What about Western Seaboards ?
Disturbance of the big currents will disturb the pressure on unstable areas , probably lessening the force on the land-area . Of special concern are the Canary Islands (land-slides ) and the San Andreas Fault .

The Gulf Stream keeps the western side of the Canary Island pasted to its parent . Relaxing the pressure will probably cause a collapse . Yet it can be used as a power generator . Use the gravitational energy to generate compression steam to power turbines . Turn a lemon into a lemonade . But will this be done ?

What about the Southern Hemisphere?
Cold , dense , deep meltwater from the Antarctic flows northward along the fault-canyons, scouring as it goes . Deepsea fish are forced to the surface (qv) . Huge new pressures are exerted on the sides of the oceanic trenches in the Pacific . The tectonic balances here on the Rim of Fire are fragile . Note that the earthquake that caused the the Dec 2004 Tsunami was preceded by two 8+ quakes deep in the South Pacific . Land masses with extended east coasts next to trenches (ie New Zealand , Eastern Australia , Indonesian archipelago ) are especially vulnerable . Indeed , increased seismic activity in the 6-7 range has already occurred in New Zealand and Indonesia .
Notice the La Nino effect .

What about South Africa ?
Huge plumes of cold , dense water is flowing into the South Indian Ocean . Refer to the recent sightings of icebergs far north (One yacht was nearly capsized by icebergs in Jan 2008 ) . This is occurring on roughly the same latitude as Port Elizabeth . These masses of cold water also has to accelerated to 1500 mph . Even if there is no land directly to the west , there is a domino effect on the currents to the west . The momentum transfer has to come from somewhere
Notice the La Nino effect .

The Aghulas current is squeezed closer to the African continent . Mauritian volcanoes become more active (already happening). Expect more killer waves in the Mozambique channel and off Port Elizabeth and Durban .

Cyclones (hurricanes) will move slightly south , but after 2050 will move far south . Squeezing the aghulas current will have an effect of raising a higher surface water temperature . If it goes over 27 Celsius , expect some really interesting weather in South Eastern Africa .Hurricanes as far south as Cape Aghulas , maybe even Cape Town .

Up to 2050 the Western Cape will have heavy rain , after that it will dry rapidly from the west if the Westerlies are pushed South . There is a probability that the westerlies will be pushed so far south that the tropical convergence will reach as far as Cape Town (ie become a summer rainfall area .)

Cold water from the Antarctic flowing north along the West coast of Africa will have the effect of weakening the Benguella current .
If the combination of cold Antarctic water squeezing the Aghulas current and weaker Benguella Current causes the warmer current to pass Cape Point and flow up the West coast , a different weather pattern will establish itself , especially after 2050 .

The trick:
While the Westerlies won’t blow the moisture ashore , the subtropical convergence will shift to the west .(Over the moist , warm air of the new current-call it the Namib Current ) . Present desert areas will become like the Free State .

Now there is a real-estate opportunity . Buy the Namib desert .

What about South America?
Pressure on the eastern seaboard will probably cause severe seismic activity in Chile . Tristan da Cunha will probably erupt . Submarines in the Falkland trench will have an interesting time of it .

What about fishing?
There’s some good news and some bad news .
The good news is that the fish biomass is increasing nearly exponentially . The fingers of cold , nutrient rich water from the poles are causing mid-oceans blooms . Plankton and krill are washed from the arctics along the nutrient-rich streams stirred up from the sea-bottom , continental shelves and trenches . Oceanic stretches normally deserts are literally exploding with life . Note the decrease in krill population in the Antarctic .They didn’t die or get eaten . They were washed away to warmer , central oceans where they are proliferating . Remember , this is not the first time this has happened . They have gene mechanisms to cope with this fortunate event .

The bad news:
Fishing is only viable commercially because the fish are concentrated on continental shelves . If the fish move off into the vastnesses of the ocean , the frequency of catching even a large fish becomes so low that it becomes uneconomical . Once there is enough nutrients in the ocean , the fish stocks dilute until it is not economical to catch them .

Note the recent invasion of small jellyfish of Ireland’s coastal estuaries .This can be seen as either too much food , or too few predators . Too much food seems to be the answer . There has been no complaints from fishermen about exigent catches , and since they are a vociferous lot , this already tells us a lot . The normal predators of jellyfish already have so much to eat that they cannot be bothered to go after such obstreperous prey .

Humans are on the wrong side of this evolutionary equation . Survivors will breed to populate the oceans . During this episode of global warming , the oceanic biomass will increase , but the biomass usable by humans will decrease . And it does not matter how fine they make their mesh .

Appendix A
The Vukcevic Aproximation .

He made an empirical Fourier series to plot the number of sunspots against time . It does not explain anything (which is why he is unknown) , but does give a good degree of correlation for the period 1813 – 2008 . It gives the 11 year cycle , but also the increase/decrease in the maximum of the number of sunspots per 11 year cycle . We can extrapolate from 2008 until 2100 with a good degree of confidence .

2002 was a maximum .
Thereafter , it generally decreases to 2050 .
Then it increases again to 2088 .
The confidence decreases after this ,

I have sliced and diced it .
There seems to be 530 – 600 years period between Maunder Minima , centering on 1650 AD .

The basic formula is
Y=A * abs[cos*2*pi*(t-T0)/P1 + cos(2*pi/3 + 2*pi*(t-T0/P2) ]
T0=1941 yrs
P1=19.86 yrs
P2=23.724 yrs
T=terran years
Note that 12*1941= 23 292 = Earth’s precession period .

Why 12 ?
Lunar , of course .
A large moon seems to play even a more important role than we thought .
The resonance coupling would seem to be both gravitational (small) and electromagnetic (large).

No comments: