Failed State

Failed State
Andre Willers
14 May 2010

Synopsis :
Failed states have one and only one characteristic : They cannot defend or maintain themselves .

Discussion :
Is RSA a failed state ?
.
It has been seen as a failed state since 1977 , during the Apartheid Regime .Kissinger's infamous grunt when asked about SA troops in Angola said it all . The US State Dept , CIA , Defense Dept has written RSA off as a failed state .

This was held in abeyance during 1994 – 1999 . During the Mbeki and then Zuma administrations , RSA was seen to go down the normal tubes of African failed states .

Argument :
The State has two primary functions:
1.Defend itself .
2.Use taxes to get the money to defend itself .
If it cannot do these two elementary functions , it is a failed state .

Discussion :
1.The SANDF has about 60 000 members , which a third are HIV positive . Experienced non-coms have been maneuvered out in the name of BEE .
They have mutinied at least once in a public manner .
Rating (1/10)

Private armies of 3 groups number about 180 000 , mostly veteran old SADF troopies and non-coms .
Rating (1/10)

The Militia Reserve (Commando's) have been disbanded .
There is no military reserve .

2.SARS
This used to be the only well-functional government department .
Sigh .
The consultantcy firm that made them efficient has been moved to HomeAffairs . SARS has decayed back into the incompetent mess it was before . My personal experience :
Rating (4/10)

The other State Functions:
The State is supposed to do large scale things outside private enterprise .

1.Education . A lamentable failure . The biggest budget item .
Rating (3/10) . Official stats . Only a third are literate.
2.Power (ESKOM)
Rating (6/10) At present
3.Water
Rating (5/10) . Big cities still have water .
4 Sewerage
Rating (0.7/10) Official Stats . A disaster.
5.Transport :
5.1 Roads . Municipal roads are a disaster . National roads are passable , but expensive due to tolls .
Rating (3/10)
5.2 Railways . Rural lines are a disaster . National lines are maintained .
Rating (6/10)
5.3 Pipelines .
Rating (9/10)
5.4 Ports .
Rating (6/10)
5.5 Airports
Rating (7/10)
6. Health
A disaster .
Rating (2/10)
7. Justice
The State cannot safeguard it's citizens .
Rating (2/10)
8 Food. RSA is now a net food importer .
Rating (3/10)
9 Security of land tenure
Rating (8/10) A lot of fraud via CIPRO.
10 Security of intellectual property rights (CIPRO)
Rating (3/10)
11. Water .
Rating (4/10)
12. Financial systems .
Rating (4/10)

These express existing conditions . After 15 years of rule by the same incompetents , I see no reason why it should suddenly change . It will get worse .

Summing :
Essential State functions:
PEssential =6/10 = 0.6
Other :
POther= 71.7/160= 0.448125

PState= (0.6 + 0.449)/2 =0.524

A failed state would be if PState <0.33
A succesful state would be if PState >0.66

Not what I expected . RSA can go either way , but the critical elements are the Defence Forces in the Essential State functions . These can be ramped up within about 6 weeks . But Reserves are a major problem .

Basically , the State is weak in service delivery and even in the Army , but has strong enough monetary systems to hire mercenaries like the private armies (called security firms)

Expect militarization of RSA and aggressive expansion into Africa . This is already happening economically . But more efficient usage of land and mineral resources would pay for cost of the military machine .

If you look at all the elements of the Other state functions , you will see that most of them will get better by exporting an aggressive expansionist groups of persons .

Zuma seems ideally positioned .
From a Real-Politik viewpoint , if Africans do not take control of their territory , the Indians and Chinese will (they already are doing this)

So Emperor Zuma is a high probability , and even desirable

And White Afrikaners ?
They make superb lieutenants . But they have failed twice in 100 years to run their own national affairs . (Boer War , 1994)

Many of them will come back if there is an aggressive incursion into Africa , resulting in an Empire of Africa .

Timespan is about 1.5 to 2 years from now before the Armoured Impis lunge northwards .

All hail Emperor Zuma .

Andre