LA Big One Update
Andre Willers
26 Aug 2011
Synopsis :
The Big One for California is expected with epicenter at about 38 N , 126 W around September 5 , 2011 . In the sea , off Los Angeles . Expect big tsunamis .
Still on track.
Discussion :
I have had some comments that 126 W does not fit the model's prediction of 135 W
And that the latitude differs by 10 degrees with that of LA .
Sadly , this does not make much difference . This is not a fault quake .
Magma Plume Origin .
This means the whole ocean floor lifts . Triggering faults , as well as tsunamis .
The weakest fault nearest to 59 N , 135 W goes first , and the rest unzips in sequence .
The first seems to be at 38 N , 126 W , then down the longitude . Due to the fractured nature of Californian coast .
The land quakes could be worse , but the tsunamis will be bad .
The timing :
Sept 6, 2011 , about the 12h00-13h00 .
.Reverberation effects around planetary magma layers .There is a slight delay anti-spinward . (The triggering signature is the Colorado quake)
The extent is unknown . Lunar and Solar tidal fluxes of the magma has to be taken into account . About 22 hours later than prediction on Sept 5 , 2011 by my estimate .
Maximum probability at about 12h00- 13h00 on Sept 6 , 2011 . (when atmospheric pressure at lowest .)
I will only be too glad if I am wrong .
Andre .
Friday, August 26, 2011
Work for All.
Work for All.
Andre Willers
26 Aug 2011
"By the sweat of thy brow thy will earn thy bread"
Synopsis :
Earth needs fixing .
Debt is the accumulation of Promises-to-Pay : a form of capital .
Combine the two to solve both problems .
Discussion :
The largest pools of skilled labour and per-capita debt are in the West
(as discussed previously – see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Financial Crisis " for months of 2011 , especially 21 Jun 2011 .)
The rather outdated Market Mechanism can still be used to match needs (Earth) and resources (Debt capital , humans) , with sufficient margins to fuel intermediary catalysts (Agents , Banks) .
Convert debts into Green Bonds , use these for collateral to pay for fixing the Earth .
Increased productivity following from fixing the planet will offset and later surpass debt-inputs . But there will be a lag dip . Luckily , there is a lag built-in to debt mechanisms due to the nature of exponential systems .
Summary :
The Carrot Scenario :
Everyone will have to work hard , but not starve , but then become filthy rich .
The Stick Scenario :
If they do not . They will starve , with high probability of extinction due to resource wars between artificial distinction of haves and have-nots .
Ironic note :
In the Carrot scenario , overpopulation does not matter . The more hands the merrier .
The only scenario that gives a survival chance to Christian and Muslim Extremists .
"What's up , doc ?" Bugs Bunny .
Andre
Andre Willers
26 Aug 2011
"By the sweat of thy brow thy will earn thy bread"
Synopsis :
Earth needs fixing .
Debt is the accumulation of Promises-to-Pay : a form of capital .
Combine the two to solve both problems .
Discussion :
The largest pools of skilled labour and per-capita debt are in the West
(as discussed previously – see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Financial Crisis " for months of 2011 , especially 21 Jun 2011 .)
The rather outdated Market Mechanism can still be used to match needs (Earth) and resources (Debt capital , humans) , with sufficient margins to fuel intermediary catalysts (Agents , Banks) .
Convert debts into Green Bonds , use these for collateral to pay for fixing the Earth .
Increased productivity following from fixing the planet will offset and later surpass debt-inputs . But there will be a lag dip . Luckily , there is a lag built-in to debt mechanisms due to the nature of exponential systems .
Summary :
The Carrot Scenario :
Everyone will have to work hard , but not starve , but then become filthy rich .
The Stick Scenario :
If they do not . They will starve , with high probability of extinction due to resource wars between artificial distinction of haves and have-nots .
Ironic note :
In the Carrot scenario , overpopulation does not matter . The more hands the merrier .
The only scenario that gives a survival chance to Christian and Muslim Extremists .
"What's up , doc ?" Bugs Bunny .
Andre
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Immortals
Immortals.
Andre Willers
24 Aug 2011
Synopsis :
Every biological population on the planet has a small percentage of immortals .This is the equivalent of long-range time-wise communication tendrils in the small-world model .
Discussion :
Ageing was assumed to be function of number of iterations in age . This has been disproved experimentally .
See "NewScientist " 6 Aug 2011 p 43 " Life begins at 90"
Ageing can be halted and even reversed .
The normal procedure is evolutionary , dependant on the smallest maximum age of reproduction . In other words , an epigenetic mechanism using histone wrapping . The system watches other parts .
This can be spoofed .
You can halt ageing , since the mechanisms are already there .
Reversing them is slightly harder .
Ironic . These mechanisms will become irrelevant as we go into the Singularity .
You want to live forever in this decrepid locale ?
Andre
Andre Willers
24 Aug 2011
Synopsis :
Every biological population on the planet has a small percentage of immortals .This is the equivalent of long-range time-wise communication tendrils in the small-world model .
Discussion :
Ageing was assumed to be function of number of iterations in age . This has been disproved experimentally .
See "NewScientist " 6 Aug 2011 p 43 " Life begins at 90"
Ageing can be halted and even reversed .
The normal procedure is evolutionary , dependant on the smallest maximum age of reproduction . In other words , an epigenetic mechanism using histone wrapping . The system watches other parts .
This can be spoofed .
You can halt ageing , since the mechanisms are already there .
Reversing them is slightly harder .
Ironic . These mechanisms will become irrelevant as we go into the Singularity .
You want to live forever in this decrepid locale ?
Andre
The California Big Earthquake
Earthquakes and Volcanoes IV
Andre Willers
24 Aug 2011
Synopsis :
The Big One for California is expected with epicenter at about 38 N , 126 W around September 5 , 2011 . In the sea , off Los Angeles . Expect big tsunamis .
Discussion :
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Earthquakes and Volcanoes II" 27 Feb 2010
It was argued that major quakes will occur at 30 degree Longitude due to spiral magma formations in the magma .
Note sequence of experienced quakes :
38 N 78 W magnitude 5.8 24/8/2011 Virginia quake
40 N 107 W magnitude 3.1 11/8/2011 Colorado quake
The next in sequence is
40 N 135 W magnitude 8.8 to 9.1 Sept 5 , 2011 LA Big One .
Then Hawaian Islands .
"Quote:Expectations : from "Earthquakes and Volcanoes II" 27 Feb 2010
To the West of Chile or Haiti (75 degrees West.)
1. 75+30 = 105 degrees West. Guadaljara (Mexico )
2. 75+2*30= 135 degrees West. Juneau (Alaska)
3. 75 + 3*30 = 165 degrees West . Hawaian Islands "
Effects :
Surprisingly little if sufficient warning is given .
Lessons from Japan ,
Tsunami's are the main threat . And nuclear reactors' cooling systems have to be hardened .
Three big threats :
1, What if Yellowstone Super-volcano goes ?
The main threat is pumice clouds . North America uninhabitable .
Humans now have sufficient clout to prevent a worst-case scenario .
Use nuclear charges to rip open the Yellowstone magma chambers to the north-west . Discharge the volcanic ash and pumice into the arctic gyre .
2, What if Verde Islands go ?
Threat is 60 meter tsunamis on coasts of America , Europe , England .
Once again , vaporize the island using nukes . A dust cloud is survivable , tsunamis's on this scale are not .
3.What if US government takes no precautionary measures and disaster happens ?
Instead of emerging stronger than ever , the state fragments . Nuclear civil war spreads . Humans become extinct . Circa 2020 AD in this scenario .
You have two weeks .
Andre
Andre Willers
24 Aug 2011
Synopsis :
The Big One for California is expected with epicenter at about 38 N , 126 W around September 5 , 2011 . In the sea , off Los Angeles . Expect big tsunamis .
Discussion :
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Earthquakes and Volcanoes II" 27 Feb 2010
It was argued that major quakes will occur at 30 degree Longitude due to spiral magma formations in the magma .
Note sequence of experienced quakes :
38 N 78 W magnitude 5.8 24/8/2011 Virginia quake
40 N 107 W magnitude 3.1 11/8/2011 Colorado quake
The next in sequence is
40 N 135 W magnitude 8.8 to 9.1 Sept 5 , 2011 LA Big One .
Then Hawaian Islands .
"Quote:Expectations : from "Earthquakes and Volcanoes II" 27 Feb 2010
To the West of Chile or Haiti (75 degrees West.)
1. 75+30 = 105 degrees West. Guadaljara (Mexico )
2. 75+2*30= 135 degrees West. Juneau (Alaska)
3. 75 + 3*30 = 165 degrees West . Hawaian Islands "
Effects :
Surprisingly little if sufficient warning is given .
Lessons from Japan ,
Tsunami's are the main threat . And nuclear reactors' cooling systems have to be hardened .
Three big threats :
1, What if Yellowstone Super-volcano goes ?
The main threat is pumice clouds . North America uninhabitable .
Humans now have sufficient clout to prevent a worst-case scenario .
Use nuclear charges to rip open the Yellowstone magma chambers to the north-west . Discharge the volcanic ash and pumice into the arctic gyre .
2, What if Verde Islands go ?
Threat is 60 meter tsunamis on coasts of America , Europe , England .
Once again , vaporize the island using nukes . A dust cloud is survivable , tsunamis's on this scale are not .
3.What if US government takes no precautionary measures and disaster happens ?
Instead of emerging stronger than ever , the state fragments . Nuclear civil war spreads . Humans become extinct . Circa 2020 AD in this scenario .
You have two weeks .
Andre
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Financial Terrorism
Financial Crisis: 18 Aug 2011 : Financial Terrorism
Andre Willers
18 Aug 2011
Synopsis :
Financial terrorists are suborning techniques of Financial Raiders to destabilize world markets .
Discussion :
Financial Raiders :
They used short-selling and rumour spreading to manipulate prices on Aug 3 and Aug 4 , 2011 . They like to artificially depress the markets during the middle of the week , allowing for a rebound during Friday to offload their exposure over the weekend .
They try to ride and drive the markets down , making money by using the freedom of the markets .
Financial Terrorists :
Events on Thu , Aug 18 , 2011 are different . Financial Raiders attempting the same trick have been hijacked by Financial Terrorists , aborting the recovery and pushing the downswing .
Counter-measures :
Democracies have strong measures against Terrorism , Financial or otherwise .
Market Freedom does not mean the freedom to shout "FIRE!" and rob those fleeing at the exits .
Riot Spillover :
There already has been riot spillover in the UK . It is starting in India . USA is next .
Then China and Russia .
This must be seen as a concerted attack , not a market correction .
The market mechanisms allowing this has been partially shut (ie limited ban on short-selling) , but much more is needed . The whole Hedge-fund and futures markets have become fellow-travellers of the Financial Terrorists .
Tragedy of the Commons Perception :
The Terrorists have created a perception via the media that cooperation is dead and it is every man for himself . Make money out of the decaying carcass .
This would have been true if not for the Social Media .
Note the Sweeping-up spontaneous organizations in the UK , Egypt , Libya , etc .
Cooperation is rallying faster than destruction .
Leaders should hurry to get in front of the people they are leading .
Andre
Andre Willers
18 Aug 2011
Synopsis :
Financial terrorists are suborning techniques of Financial Raiders to destabilize world markets .
Discussion :
Financial Raiders :
They used short-selling and rumour spreading to manipulate prices on Aug 3 and Aug 4 , 2011 . They like to artificially depress the markets during the middle of the week , allowing for a rebound during Friday to offload their exposure over the weekend .
They try to ride and drive the markets down , making money by using the freedom of the markets .
Financial Terrorists :
Events on Thu , Aug 18 , 2011 are different . Financial Raiders attempting the same trick have been hijacked by Financial Terrorists , aborting the recovery and pushing the downswing .
Counter-measures :
Democracies have strong measures against Terrorism , Financial or otherwise .
Market Freedom does not mean the freedom to shout "FIRE!" and rob those fleeing at the exits .
Riot Spillover :
There already has been riot spillover in the UK . It is starting in India . USA is next .
Then China and Russia .
This must be seen as a concerted attack , not a market correction .
The market mechanisms allowing this has been partially shut (ie limited ban on short-selling) , but much more is needed . The whole Hedge-fund and futures markets have become fellow-travellers of the Financial Terrorists .
Tragedy of the Commons Perception :
The Terrorists have created a perception via the media that cooperation is dead and it is every man for himself . Make money out of the decaying carcass .
This would have been true if not for the Social Media .
Note the Sweeping-up spontaneous organizations in the UK , Egypt , Libya , etc .
Cooperation is rallying faster than destruction .
Leaders should hurry to get in front of the people they are leading .
Andre
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Super tastes and evolutionary restraint.
Super tastes and evolutionary restraint.
Andre Willers
14 Aug 2011
Synopsis:
The spectrum of bad tastes is mirrored by the spectrum of good to super good tastes .
Bad tastes are automatically self-limiting . Super good tastes are limited by epigenetic switches to protect host organisms .
Discussion:
Another episode in the Plant-Herbivore Wars .
Good tastes (read smells as well) only persist if they have some reproductive significance . If it too overwhelming , the smeller gets eaten in too large numbers .
So , an evolutionary restraint develops .
Plants thus have genes that code for super tastes , but do not express them . Now add inter-plant competition and random variation . A huge variety and number of gradients of super tastes develop .
Quorum mechanisms develop .
Plants sit and watch each other .
Human cultivation activates some better tastes in competition (why mono-cultures do not taste as good )
Mother's little helpers :
Bacteria and yeasts are tied into the system as clients of the plants .
This has profound implications for gut flora .
I estimate that 1/3 of 1/3 (~ 11%) of sensory taste is derived from gut feedback .
The inferences for the immune system are obvious .
Many bacteria (at least 1/3) are programmed to aid plants in restoration after severe environmental stress . They need a super taste to be eaten and replicate . To do that , they remove some earlier wrappers around the DNA structure , allowing expression of super taste DNA . ( A purely epigenetic mechanism)
This knowledge enables us to make super tastes to order by manipulating stressors .
Diseases
I suspect , but proof is needed , that many systemic diseases like diabetes can be suspended by super-tastes . The super-taste chemicals should have profound effects on insulin permeability of cell-walls , as well as mitochondria (of course)
An example you can do :
Super-rolls :
1.Start with bought yeast baked rolls . (Even 180 C baking temperatures will leave enough hardened bacterial kernels and epigenetic markers)
2.Freeze the roll (about minus 5 C normal freezer)
3.Microwave frozen roll for about 60 seconds at 900 W . Note that this is not equivalent to thawing . Microwaving gives internal bacteria a huge relative advantage to competitors from the outside – an information block .
4.Stand for about 6 hours after halving and smearing with butter.
(This is the crucial stage . Fermentation resumes with super taste DNA being expressed . The butter layer on the inside captures the essence . This concentrate is what the mouth tastes .)
5. The bacteria "thinks" it just went through a giant meteor impact (baking) , then a nuclear winter (freezing) , then a rapid thaw (microwaving) with intense competition coming – ie outside bacteria . It needs to be very appealing – ie tasty to maximize reproduction .
6. Varying the ingredients and analyzing the butter layer will give new and super tastes . This can be automated on a computer chip .
7. Sourdough will give a larger genetic variance , but baker's dough will give more of a selective pressure towards Taste .
Rull Taste
Are Rull taste compulsions possible ? Gross ones , yes (Just follow the recipe above). Fine ones , no .The chaotic paths are too broad .
But Metamaterial tastes/scents are possible that can compel behaviour down single neuron pathways .
Design-a-taste anyone ?
Andre
Andre Willers
14 Aug 2011
Synopsis:
The spectrum of bad tastes is mirrored by the spectrum of good to super good tastes .
Bad tastes are automatically self-limiting . Super good tastes are limited by epigenetic switches to protect host organisms .
Discussion:
Another episode in the Plant-Herbivore Wars .
Good tastes (read smells as well) only persist if they have some reproductive significance . If it too overwhelming , the smeller gets eaten in too large numbers .
So , an evolutionary restraint develops .
Plants thus have genes that code for super tastes , but do not express them . Now add inter-plant competition and random variation . A huge variety and number of gradients of super tastes develop .
Quorum mechanisms develop .
Plants sit and watch each other .
Human cultivation activates some better tastes in competition (why mono-cultures do not taste as good )
Mother's little helpers :
Bacteria and yeasts are tied into the system as clients of the plants .
This has profound implications for gut flora .
I estimate that 1/3 of 1/3 (~ 11%) of sensory taste is derived from gut feedback .
The inferences for the immune system are obvious .
Many bacteria (at least 1/3) are programmed to aid plants in restoration after severe environmental stress . They need a super taste to be eaten and replicate . To do that , they remove some earlier wrappers around the DNA structure , allowing expression of super taste DNA . ( A purely epigenetic mechanism)
This knowledge enables us to make super tastes to order by manipulating stressors .
Diseases
I suspect , but proof is needed , that many systemic diseases like diabetes can be suspended by super-tastes . The super-taste chemicals should have profound effects on insulin permeability of cell-walls , as well as mitochondria (of course)
An example you can do :
Super-rolls :
1.Start with bought yeast baked rolls . (Even 180 C baking temperatures will leave enough hardened bacterial kernels and epigenetic markers)
2.Freeze the roll (about minus 5 C normal freezer)
3.Microwave frozen roll for about 60 seconds at 900 W . Note that this is not equivalent to thawing . Microwaving gives internal bacteria a huge relative advantage to competitors from the outside – an information block .
4.Stand for about 6 hours after halving and smearing with butter.
(This is the crucial stage . Fermentation resumes with super taste DNA being expressed . The butter layer on the inside captures the essence . This concentrate is what the mouth tastes .)
5. The bacteria "thinks" it just went through a giant meteor impact (baking) , then a nuclear winter (freezing) , then a rapid thaw (microwaving) with intense competition coming – ie outside bacteria . It needs to be very appealing – ie tasty to maximize reproduction .
6. Varying the ingredients and analyzing the butter layer will give new and super tastes . This can be automated on a computer chip .
7. Sourdough will give a larger genetic variance , but baker's dough will give more of a selective pressure towards Taste .
Rull Taste
Are Rull taste compulsions possible ? Gross ones , yes (Just follow the recipe above). Fine ones , no .The chaotic paths are too broad .
But Metamaterial tastes/scents are possible that can compel behaviour down single neuron pathways .
Design-a-taste anyone ?
Andre
Friday, August 12, 2011
Why Whales are so large .
Why Whales are so large
Andre Willers
12 Aug 2011
Synopsis :
Vertical migration in the ocean between each breath recycles nutrients into the sunlit layers of the ocean , stimulating phytoplankton-krill-whale positive feedback cycle . The bigger the whale , the more krill , the more whales , etc
Discussion :
See "Givers of Life" by Steve Nicol in NewScientist 9 Jul 2011 p36 .
This is an excellent overview by an actual researcher .
Critical points :
1.Nutrients tend to sink after concentration into plant cells . Small animal faeces like krill sink by 100 – 1000 metres a day . The thermocline acts as a trapdoor , excacerbating the effect in summer or global warmaing .
2.Mammals have to breathe at the surface . This forces a vertical migration with each breath , mixing things up in at least three ways :
2.1 Wake turbulence and Coanda Effect (Google it) . Large volumes of water are transported up and down . It is part of whale's reduction to water-flow resistance . The bigger the whale , the better .
2.2 Nutrient scavenging from the depths and faeces plumes at surface . Size helps .
2.3 Floating reservoirs of nutrients in krill are eaten and excreted as faeces plumes in the sunlit zones , preventing loss of vital nutrients like iron . This stimulates phytoplankton , which stimulates krill , which stimulates whales . The bigger the whales , and the more of them , the better .
Social effect and mini-ecology :
A pod of whales use their sonar calls to coordinate their vertical migrations to create a nutrient rich mini-ecology around the pod . They farm the sea .
Other species benefit . Fishing is good .
Note that the minimum survival size is a pod , and the techniques are learned .
Think of the pod as a farming village in 3-dimensional oceanic terms .
A lonely whale is a hungry whale
The feedback effect here would be as the cube of the number of whales and their size . A very strong effect , leading quickly to large numbers and maximum possible sizes .
This was indeed the case as late as 17th century Whale , fish and wild bird populations were about 100 times larger than at present . Google it .
The Fly-by effect :
Whale pod ecologies moving past a coast would have significant effects on local crustaceans and inshore fishing .
The same is applicable for coral reefs . Blanching is be ameliorated by temperature-layer mixing .
The Australian Great Barrier reef can be saved through whale pods doing a fly-by
Coral atolls the same .
Without them there would be a desert .
Whales seems to have been the key-stone eco species .
The Bad News :
This seems bad , since humans reduced whale numbers so drastically .
The Good News :
1.The feedback effect is very strong (cubed effect) and can be applied per pod .
2.Pod-package : similar to human civilization package .
Symbiotic and commensal species of fish , phytoplankton , krill , dolphins , orcas , can be used to accelerate repopulation , under strict human protection .
3.Commercial Demand :
Whale Pods and their symbiotic humans can negotiate their own terms for ecological beneficiation for coral islands , fisheries , barrier reefs , etc .
In a warming world , the Whale Union will be a powerful force .
Whales and Dinosaurs :
Whales are the largest animals that ever lived .
Sea dinosaurs did not need to breathe air . Hence no vertical migration .
Hence no feedback effect for size .
Hippo's
Hippo's are a branch of whales (from long ago) . They also create a mini-ecology in their pool by stirring things up . Especially in the dry season . The pools are stagnant . The only thing stirring up nutrients are hippo's . The other species depend on them . The eco-system collapses without them .
Which is why humans put up with bad-tempered hippo's in Africa . They were essential to a functioning ecosystem .
(Or , to put it more elegantly , the tribe that killed them perished .)
Which makes me wonder why they were not domesticated .
Maybe an attempt was made around the Makgadigadi Sea , and what we have are the descendants of the untamable ones . Similar to buffalo and kwagga .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Makgadigadi Sea" Aug 2009
The Human-Whale interaction .
There is fairly good evidence that a crucial human bottle-neck experience took place about 190 000 to 200 000 years ago on the Agulhas plains during an ice-age .The only thing enabling them to survive was the annual whale pods flying by , fertilizing the Agulhas Banks .
This survives to this day . The locals are fanatical in protecting the whales . No large scale whaling has ever taken place . They have long forgotten the reasons for it , but like any good religious proscription , it persists .
Whale watching is a major industry today .
Local South Africans and others gather to watch the phallic plumes of whale-breath spume new life into the banks .
Every time the whale pods go by , the poor over-fished abalone , crayfish and other fisheries are invigorated and struggle on .
Having a whale of a time .
Andre
Andre Willers
12 Aug 2011
Synopsis :
Vertical migration in the ocean between each breath recycles nutrients into the sunlit layers of the ocean , stimulating phytoplankton-krill-whale positive feedback cycle . The bigger the whale , the more krill , the more whales , etc
Discussion :
See "Givers of Life" by Steve Nicol in NewScientist 9 Jul 2011 p36 .
This is an excellent overview by an actual researcher .
Critical points :
1.Nutrients tend to sink after concentration into plant cells . Small animal faeces like krill sink by 100 – 1000 metres a day . The thermocline acts as a trapdoor , excacerbating the effect in summer or global warmaing .
2.Mammals have to breathe at the surface . This forces a vertical migration with each breath , mixing things up in at least three ways :
2.1 Wake turbulence and Coanda Effect (Google it) . Large volumes of water are transported up and down . It is part of whale's reduction to water-flow resistance . The bigger the whale , the better .
2.2 Nutrient scavenging from the depths and faeces plumes at surface . Size helps .
2.3 Floating reservoirs of nutrients in krill are eaten and excreted as faeces plumes in the sunlit zones , preventing loss of vital nutrients like iron . This stimulates phytoplankton , which stimulates krill , which stimulates whales . The bigger the whales , and the more of them , the better .
Social effect and mini-ecology :
A pod of whales use their sonar calls to coordinate their vertical migrations to create a nutrient rich mini-ecology around the pod . They farm the sea .
Other species benefit . Fishing is good .
Note that the minimum survival size is a pod , and the techniques are learned .
Think of the pod as a farming village in 3-dimensional oceanic terms .
A lonely whale is a hungry whale
The feedback effect here would be as the cube of the number of whales and their size . A very strong effect , leading quickly to large numbers and maximum possible sizes .
This was indeed the case as late as 17th century Whale , fish and wild bird populations were about 100 times larger than at present . Google it .
The Fly-by effect :
Whale pod ecologies moving past a coast would have significant effects on local crustaceans and inshore fishing .
The same is applicable for coral reefs . Blanching is be ameliorated by temperature-layer mixing .
The Australian Great Barrier reef can be saved through whale pods doing a fly-by
Coral atolls the same .
Without them there would be a desert .
Whales seems to have been the key-stone eco species .
The Bad News :
This seems bad , since humans reduced whale numbers so drastically .
The Good News :
1.The feedback effect is very strong (cubed effect) and can be applied per pod .
2.Pod-package : similar to human civilization package .
Symbiotic and commensal species of fish , phytoplankton , krill , dolphins , orcas , can be used to accelerate repopulation , under strict human protection .
3.Commercial Demand :
Whale Pods and their symbiotic humans can negotiate their own terms for ecological beneficiation for coral islands , fisheries , barrier reefs , etc .
In a warming world , the Whale Union will be a powerful force .
Whales and Dinosaurs :
Whales are the largest animals that ever lived .
Sea dinosaurs did not need to breathe air . Hence no vertical migration .
Hence no feedback effect for size .
Hippo's
Hippo's are a branch of whales (from long ago) . They also create a mini-ecology in their pool by stirring things up . Especially in the dry season . The pools are stagnant . The only thing stirring up nutrients are hippo's . The other species depend on them . The eco-system collapses without them .
Which is why humans put up with bad-tempered hippo's in Africa . They were essential to a functioning ecosystem .
(Or , to put it more elegantly , the tribe that killed them perished .)
Which makes me wonder why they were not domesticated .
Maybe an attempt was made around the Makgadigadi Sea , and what we have are the descendants of the untamable ones . Similar to buffalo and kwagga .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com "Makgadigadi Sea" Aug 2009
The Human-Whale interaction .
There is fairly good evidence that a crucial human bottle-neck experience took place about 190 000 to 200 000 years ago on the Agulhas plains during an ice-age .The only thing enabling them to survive was the annual whale pods flying by , fertilizing the Agulhas Banks .
This survives to this day . The locals are fanatical in protecting the whales . No large scale whaling has ever taken place . They have long forgotten the reasons for it , but like any good religious proscription , it persists .
Whale watching is a major industry today .
Local South Africans and others gather to watch the phallic plumes of whale-breath spume new life into the banks .
Every time the whale pods go by , the poor over-fished abalone , crayfish and other fisheries are invigorated and struggle on .
Having a whale of a time .
Andre
Saturday, August 06, 2011
Financial Crisis 7 Aug 2011 : Disguised Defaults
Financial Crisis 7 Aug 2011 : Disguised Defaults
Andre Willers
7 Aug 2011
"The Truth is out there" X-files
Synopsis :
Defaults disguised as rollovers , decreased interest rates , Quantitive easing or simply more debt means a smaller series of income streams in future . Stock Markets are designed to pick these up and register the abrupt decrease in the Present Value of these income streams . This translates as a sudden decrease in share prices , ie a crash
Discussion :
This is why the stock markets fell sharply on 3 to 5 Aug 2011 .
The USA default on Aug 2 , 2011 was averted as far as the banking system was concerned , but the stock valuations picked it up . Prices adjusted accordingly .
Panic set in . Etc , etc .
Estimate of size of fall :
The present value of stocks should fall by at least the amount of default .
The markets are interconnected , so must be seen on global scale for a macro-argument like this .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_exchanges
Capitalizations of world exchanges ~ $ Tr 120
Defaulted debts USA , EU ~ $ Tr 15
Expected stock price fall of 15/120 ~ 12.5 %
Fall already occurred (at Aug 7, 2011) ~ 7 %
Fall expected to occur week 9-12 Aug 2011 ~ 5%
When is it safe to get back into the water ?
Not while the DOW > 11 100 (= 12 700 x (1-0.125)
Wait till it falls below , then come in on the uptick and take your chances .
Stress between banking system and stock exchanges .
As seen above , the shareholders took their lumps . But the banking sector still is overvalued by 12% . They cannot forgive debt (by law) . The only default for the small individual is bankruptcy and homelessness .
In essence , the banking sector continues to collect debts that has already been paid .
This is seen as unfair . All sorts of hardwired mechanisms kick in .
This is a recipe for revolution . (Ask Hosny Mubarak.)
USA is the most vulnerable state (then China) :
Quantitive Easing III without small-debt forgiveness and reform of the banking system will mean the end of the Union that George Washington , Lincoln and FDR (cf New Deal) worked for . (Bad news for the rest of the planet.)
Social media (like Facebook) is the new element that prevents a replay of the end of the Roman Republic .
On a personal note :
I find the succession of talking heads on the media saying that they do not understand the stock market crash sickening .
The stock market system is working exactly as advertised , discounting lies .
The King has no clothes , but for a modest profit they will sell him a fig-leaf .
And singing lessons for the horse .
Andre
Andre Willers
7 Aug 2011
"The Truth is out there" X-files
Synopsis :
Defaults disguised as rollovers , decreased interest rates , Quantitive easing or simply more debt means a smaller series of income streams in future . Stock Markets are designed to pick these up and register the abrupt decrease in the Present Value of these income streams . This translates as a sudden decrease in share prices , ie a crash
Discussion :
This is why the stock markets fell sharply on 3 to 5 Aug 2011 .
The USA default on Aug 2 , 2011 was averted as far as the banking system was concerned , but the stock valuations picked it up . Prices adjusted accordingly .
Panic set in . Etc , etc .
Estimate of size of fall :
The present value of stocks should fall by at least the amount of default .
The markets are interconnected , so must be seen on global scale for a macro-argument like this .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_exchanges
Capitalizations of world exchanges ~ $ Tr 120
Defaulted debts USA , EU ~ $ Tr 15
Expected stock price fall of 15/120 ~ 12.5 %
Fall already occurred (at Aug 7, 2011) ~ 7 %
Fall expected to occur week 9-12 Aug 2011 ~ 5%
When is it safe to get back into the water ?
Not while the DOW > 11 100 (= 12 700 x (1-0.125)
Wait till it falls below , then come in on the uptick and take your chances .
Stress between banking system and stock exchanges .
As seen above , the shareholders took their lumps . But the banking sector still is overvalued by 12% . They cannot forgive debt (by law) . The only default for the small individual is bankruptcy and homelessness .
In essence , the banking sector continues to collect debts that has already been paid .
This is seen as unfair . All sorts of hardwired mechanisms kick in .
This is a recipe for revolution . (Ask Hosny Mubarak.)
USA is the most vulnerable state (then China) :
Quantitive Easing III without small-debt forgiveness and reform of the banking system will mean the end of the Union that George Washington , Lincoln and FDR (cf New Deal) worked for . (Bad news for the rest of the planet.)
Social media (like Facebook) is the new element that prevents a replay of the end of the Roman Republic .
On a personal note :
I find the succession of talking heads on the media saying that they do not understand the stock market crash sickening .
The stock market system is working exactly as advertised , discounting lies .
The King has no clothes , but for a modest profit they will sell him a fig-leaf .
And singing lessons for the horse .
Andre
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