Friday, November 07, 2008

Hoag Ratings and Hoag Futures Markets

Hoag Ratings and Hoag Futures Markets
Andre Willers
7 November 2008

“Everyone’s a critic .” Pre-Big Bang saying .

The Hoag rating is a rating of how well God is doing His job .( Scale 1 to 5)
Named after “The unpleasant profession of Jonathan Hoag” by Robert Heinlein .

Discussion :

God knows what every creature’s opinion of Him is .

But fellow creatures do not know what each other’s Hoag Ratings are .

What do you really think of the Boss ?
Dare you let anybody else know ?

The optimal strategy is to lie according to the perceived power-base of fellow humans.

Does this sound familiar ?
This results in organised religions and other hierarchical structures enforced by violence . A violent minority can enforce compliance because the other majorities cannot communicate and unite . If they do communicate , they lie .

To counteract this effect , we need to neutralize the lies and enhance communication to find allies .

1 .Getting rid of the lies .
Futures markets are good at this .
(Hint : look for futures markets in the immune system . Or create ones.
This is really interesting .
What does a futures market in the immune system look like ? See previous posts on tumurous clumps of cells . )

Futures markets on decision points have evolved where special interest groups (“the lies” ) can be identified . Once identified , they can be discounted .

Any market is by definition an anonymizer . Every interest is squashed down to a few dimensions .

A Hoag-futures Market on Hoag Ratings will certainly transform the way organised religious groupings are perceived by other humans .

This will enable Governments to have a reliable quantifiable handle on the social effects of religious opinions .

2. Communications :
2.1 The present Internet , Facebook-type systems and the
convergence AI(3.09999…) ->AI(3.1) as previously discussed , is a public system . Allies can easily be found .

2.2 The historical mind-computer interface (circa 1980’s) is secret , and plays little role here .

2.3 Quantum-computing should be commercially available in about 2-3 years time .
See the interesting development in metamaterials in “Know your anyons” , NewScientist , 4 Oct 2008 p40 .
Quasi-particles with fractional charges are created using the fractional Hall quantum effect . The important thing is that these particles are capable of superposition , and are very stable as regards decoherence .
Decoherence instability has been the only factor keeping quantum computing back .
All the other factors are in place .
Once this dam wall goes , there will be flood of quantum computers and applications.

Microsoft has been sponsoring this research since 2003 . Publishing now means that a prototype has been manufactured .

2.4 AI(4) is thus around the corner . This will force rapid development of AI(3.9999…) effects . This means the explosion of mind-computer interfaces (like the present explosion of games with mind-controls) or large , multiply connected networks of the same .

What do the Religions think ?
What does the Vatican think ? The Church of England , Russia , American South Fundamentalist , Islam , Buddhism , Shintoism , Hinduism , etc .

This is where the Hoag Futures Market comes in .
Even organized religions will have an interest in this . Subsidies will be pro-rata to market performance .

Besides which , it is only fitting that in the future religions compete with other socio-economic systems .

Can they avoid this ?
No .

Singularity Dates .
A futures market on this seems extremely desirable .
This will be obviously closely related to the Hoag Futures Market .

A single singularity date for all becomes less likely .
Different groups will go into the singularity at different times .
There are too many convergences from different directions .
AI(n+1) or AI(n.99999…) for various n .

You can identify which group you feel more comfortable with by watching the Singularity Futures Market .

See previous posts on posthuman money to see that this does make a difference .

Date Estimates :
1. 2012-2013 Early ones
2. 2015 – 2029 Most in groupy dribbles .
3. By 2030 all , except stay behinds .
This is where we need a Singularity Futures Market to get a better idea .

Singularity Lottery .
Possible , and interesting .
I mention this because of the possibility of refusal . An ordinary run-up to Singularity has about zero chance of refusal . Later , the post-singularity entity might choose to return , but this is like the author rewriting some pages . The past is lost .

But a winner of the Singularity Lottery is in a superposition state of non-Singularity and Singularity states . If the individual chooses either alternative , the other manifests in alternate times and personas .
If he forsakes mortals , his conscience (love) bothers him . If he doesn’t , his connection to the singularity warps anything around him in any case .

This is a niche that needs to be filled , but no post-singularity entity in his right mind will volunteer for this . Hence this graduated run-up to the singularity , with various beth-bubbles to populate this niche with enough chaperones to do the job .

Think of it as future payment . Our language does not have the correct terms .
Our person has already moved into the singularity , but he had to borrow from various futures and alternates and pasts to do that .To repay that , aspects of his being had to do his duty , at the same time learning the missing lessons and earning the “money” to repay his debts .

And you thought God did not operate on a deficit . Check the argument on exchange-rates again .

What does this mean to us now at 0046 on 8 Nov 2008 ?
The present so-called economic crisis is meaningless .
We are four years away from the first large elements of Terran society entering the Singularity . Ecological concerns are meaningless . The planet will either be replenished or destroyed .

By 2030 , there will be no humans left on the planet except stay-behinds .
The planet will be replenished , and the sun reduced in output .

Stay-behinds .
A problem .
The Singularity mechanisms operates from AI(3.1) levels (mind-computer interaction) .

What about AI(1) : illiterate persons and even more problematic , AI(2) and AI(3.0x)?
We can induce an upgrade , essentially without consent . In other words ,
Can a stay-behind really make an informed decision without knowing what he will be missing ?
No .
We will have to upgrade , then downgrade if the person decides against it .
The stay-behinds , will , like in the past , be really determined .

Will you be forced into upgrading yourself against your will ?
The answer is essentially yes .
You might choose to downgrade yourself again after this , but be honest , will you ?

Who knows ?

They dug up Aida’s tomb and found nothing except a cell-phone with a caller-id of “Lara”


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