Peak Car

Peak Car
Andre Willers
8 Sep 2011

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." - George Santayana

Synopsis:
The Peaks are interconnected . One system peaking means others will as well.
We are heading for a major deflationary cycle . Unless the Banks are bypassed , no amount of stimulus will help .
Cash is king .

Discussion :

Peak Cars :
http://www.rudi.net/node/22123

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/motoring/features/is-this-the-end-of-the-car-2286616.html

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2011/3206293.htm

Briefly :
1.Peak Cars:
A tipping point had been reached well before 2008 (start of current economic crisis ) where people were less willing to go into debt for cars and the associated infrastructures .

This contributed to a large degree to the present economic crisis .

2.Social Networks and Car Networks are in direct competition .
The cost of social networks are about 1/100 of a car network , and decreasing , while the cost of car networks are increasing .
Guess which is winning .

Cars in China , India , etc.
It a characteristic of emerging markets to follow mature markets in that they recapitulate the development process much faster . In other words , the emerging markets car systems will peak quickly (may have already peaked) , then leap-frog the developed world into the next generation (like cellphones in Africa)

3.Peak Airtravel
There are no hits on Google . Nobody seems to have realised (like with cars) that Peak Airtravel has already been reached . The industry is declining , as seen in the large number of busts in low-cost airlines . Invariably blamed on the cost of fuel . But the fuel price has been going down . It is the ancillary infrastructure costs and sociological changes that has peaked airtravel .

4.Peak Tourism :
Cost of credit has eroded discretionary savings . Mass tourism travel has peaked .
Rip-offs at destination has permanently soured the market for the middle- and lower classes . Really bad news for lots of emerging countries .

5.Peak Oil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

Do not confuse this with peak oil prices . At a rough estimate , a fair oil price would be about $95 a barrel at peak demands . The rest is speculative excess .
As peak demands fall , oil prices will fall .

6.Peak Food Costs:
Dare I say it ? Food production costs have peaked .
Centers of large demand (China,India) have brought less productive agricultural areas in Africa and elsewhere into about 40 –fold increase in productivity .Populations have stabilised or grown wealthier . Food prices will fall .

If peak demands fall , (Peak Car , Peak Airtravel , Peak Oil Costs , Peak Food Costs)
Deflation would be the problem

7.Double Dip Recession :
This deflation is disguised as a Double Dip Recession .

The economies will slow down , but things will get cheaper in real terms .
Earn less , but buy more.

Peak Credit demand
Social networks are so much cheaper .

8.Peak Banks
The demand for credit has peaked and collapsed .
The smart operators got out of hedge funds long ago (cf Quantum)
Banks are still under the misapprehension that they only control the credit taps .
Fractional Reserves in banking has been responsible for most of the present troubles .
This is at an end unless Westerners want sharia banks to buy them with their own money .

9.Sharia Banking :
This is gaining ground because of the large fractional reserve (usually 100%)
Expect equivalent Fundamentalist Christian Banking .
A replay of the situation after the end of the Roman Empire's banking system .

Feeling peaked ?

Andre