The External Gut and Lungs
Humans use external containers to break down complex molecules into simple molecules that can easily be absorbed or further digested (with low energy cost) by the human gut .
The processes used are
1.Cutting or grinding (knives , grinders , else to be done by teeth)
2.Heat ( boiling , frying , roasting , baking)
3.Fermentation ( enzymes) . Bacteria and fungi act as external symbiotes in special containers in a similar fashion as in the human gut .
4. Combinations of above .
Note that all require technology of some sort : fire or manufactured containers , as well as a definite recipe .
The effects of heat are well known , except for sub-chronic acrylamide poisoning
(See previous “Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy and Acrylamide 2” in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com )
Fermentation is widely used , but its consequences are not always fully realised .
Pure Fermentation (without heat ).
The best known one is , of course , bread rising and wine .
The intriguing thing is that some foods prepared by fermentation should be lethal , but are not . For example , raw fish is kept in a container for up to a year and is still edible , whilst biological activity (fermentation) is taking place .
Examples of salted fish :
Nam Pla : Thai fish sauce ( similar to Roman Garum ) , padek (Laos) , bagoong (Philippines) , lutefish ( Norway) .
Examples of salted vegetables :
Sauerkraut (Europe ) , Kimchi (Korea)
In the above examples , the saline concentration is not high enough to inhibit all biological activity . Fermentation takes place , but it seems that no lethal toxins are produced in an essentially anaerobic environment . But it smells bad (especially the sulfur rich fish ) .
This means a relatively high H2S concentration . ( Anaerobic fermentation should produce H2S) .
Protein breakdown continues , but the H2S slows down production-tempo of quorum signaling messengers for pathogenic producers below the threshold where the lethality-genes will switch-on . ( The messenger molecules must have a limited lifespan , else the organism will soon be in permanent quorum : ie be dismantled pdq .)
See Training the Immune System. http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Additionally , anaerobic organisms originally evolved in a low-salt environment (before the seas became salty ) . While they might have evolved tolerance for higher saline concentration , a sudden jump to a higher level of salinity requires new mechanisms , while a jump to a lower level of salinity simply means activating old , existing mechanisms .
A high initial saline concentration thus provides a bias against initial pathogens in the external gut container . The ratio of good vs bad cannot remain stable . The good fermentation organisms out-compete the pathogenic ones , as the pathogenic ones are inhibited by H2S induced slowdown . (Eg why is human blood salty?)
The recipe then seems to be:
Salt (not too much) + food with some sulfur content + covered with water -> edible by human food a year plus on .
No starter cultures are normally used , but of course they would speed the process .
A different recipe is for yoghurt , cheese , etc . Here the initial bias is given by the antibiotics inherent in mammalian milk . Starter cultures are used , as the bias effect is not as strong as with salt .
Note that sulfur is the critical element .
The advantages of an External Gut
Acidity , materials input , temperature , etc can be precisely controlled . The whole food industry can be described as an external gut , and the whole human race hanging from its teats like 6.5 billion mewling rats . Efficiency can be optimized on the known factors . Large numbers can eat well .
The disadvantages of an External Gut
But the unknown factors…
Quick poisons (like arsenic in the water , etc) can be handled quickly .
Slow poisons like lead might have an impact , but not too big .
The leveraged unrecognized poisons in the external gut can have consequences difficult to reverse .
The systems the body has where this is of concern is the learning systems : ie where a small input can make a big difference .
The human body has three : the spiritual (not considered here) , the nervous system and the immune system .
The immune system:
One of the main methods by which the immune systems kills deviant cells is by an injection of hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) . The fragments of hypochlorous acid mark the fragments of target cells as enemies to the immune system .
Containers of the external gut (pots pans ,etc) washed with dishwashers usually contain traces of bleach (since the 1950’s). These few million molecules kill many cells previously recognized as good by the immune system and a few bad cells . But the good cells have already been recognized as good . (The system does not work in serial processing fashion : the millions of good cells are not even seen (latched on ) by the immune system , but the few bad ones are . This sharpens the immune response .
The problem is immature immune systems-like babies and small infants . The immune system has not learned that many good guys . It is inclined to learn the wrong lesson . It treats exactly those dirt molecules marked by the bleach derivatives as targets .
Hence the growth of asthma and similar immune diseases .
Can the immune system unlearn ?
Evolutionary speaking , it does not look too rosy . Change in the environment is usually slow , so there is no evolutionary pressure to unlearn mistakes . It is cheaper to let the organism die and let the descendants adapt .
So we must look at epigenetic factors . These are the only ones that can cause a rapid enough change within an organism’s lifetime .
The mechanisms might be there , but they will have to be driven ( ie they will not occur naturally .) Somebody will have to deliberately set up the system .
Resetting the immune system molecule by molecule is one way , but seems awfully tedious .
The logic is : “if A , then B” , but we want “if A then C” .
We can’t unlearn “if A , then B” , but we can slow it down and substitute , speed up and emphasise “if A then C”. The occurrences of “if A , then B” then decreases to the vanishing point in the dynamic system . Note that speed here is important .
We know how to slow things up (80 ppm H2S) .
We know how to speed things up (80 ppm CH4).
We know that the body system is anabolic .( ie few suicides , many cancers . Cancer can be seen as an unsuccessful attempt to live forever , in a rather unstructured way .)
So we know that the system has sophisticated feedback systems regarding differential metabolic rates . Even gross drivers like fluctuating H2S and CH4 concentrations will cause first-order adaptations in anabolism .
In other words , just breathing H2S-CH4 in succession will sharpen responses at a cellular level .
The system will be sensitive to neural effects . Wishing or willing will cause physiological cascades that the process will pick up and amplify .
Have fun
Andre
Wednesday, July 05, 2006
Saturday, June 24, 2006
Diabetic Peripheral 2
Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy and Acrylamide - 2
See previous “Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy and Acrylamide” in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Dated 21/06/200
Major Money-making Opportunity.
“The end-product is path-dependant “ … AW
“You are what you eat.”
“Personalized Eating”
There are only two ways to measure the content of food :
Lacking such a device , a monoclonal antibody strip should recognize the presence and concentration of a simple chemical like acrylamide . This should be easy to make .
A personalised smart eating utensil would advise the eater of nutritional needs and no-no’s via something like blue-tooth.
This can be done now with present technology .
Market : initially , about 10% of population :huge
This is a killer app!
A personal note:
I suffered increasingly for 14 years with peripheral diabetic neuropathy . When I became aware of the arguments below , I immediately (on 12/06/2006) cut out any food prepared at over 120 degrees Celsius .
The effect was dramatic. Within 2 days , a lot of the symptoms had disappeared .
( The curve is a standard exponential decreasing with time .) After 5 days I could sleep without chemical help . It is now day 10 . Glucose levels have improved , and instead of feeling hypo , I feel hungry . Still , early days .
I take daily 4x3x3 grams of Evening Primrose Oil (since 12/06/2006) , since this is the only clinically proven way of repairing peripheral neuropathy damage . Feeling is slowly returning to my feet and toes . Interestingly , there is no side-effect like in recovering from frostbite . (Tingling and burning sensations have disappeared . I still have occasional restless feet .)
The worst-case half-life of acrylamide is 8 days .
So 3-4 months should bring levels really low as long as no new acrylamide is ingested
The feeling that you have found something that actually works is indescribable .
Not only-knees up , Mother Brown , but feet-up as well !
Andre
1. Background:
1. Acrylamide (ACR) is a potent neuro-toxin . See http://epa.gov.iris/subst/0286.htm
2. It induces neural damage both in the Central Nervous System (CNS) and the Peripheral Nervous System (PNS) even at sub-chronic levels .
This has important implications for diabetes , alzheimers , etc
To quote from the experimental results in the link below :
“Thus, subchronic exposure to ACR affected the expression of death-related proteins in the CNS and PNS tissue, which indicate there is the early molecular regulatory mechanism of apoptosis in the neuropathy induced by ACR.”
Note that according to this experimental result , the CNS is somehow buffered against low continual dosages of acrylamide , but not the PNS .
The effect of acrylamide seems to change the expression of genes bcl-2 , bax and caspase-3 to bring about apoptosis of the Scwann-cells in the myelin sheath . The result is a train crash in the axon transport system of the PNS long before effects are noted in the CNS .
Indeed , the buffering might be seen as an evolutionary work-in-progress since the invention of the use of fire + metal ( = frying) .
You might say that rats (used in the experiments) are not fire-using , but that is not correct . They do certainly eat cooked discards from human sources , and have done so for at least a million years . Given their proven speed of adaptation to poisons , propensity for gene-swapping and short gestation period , they are almost certainly more adept at handling acrylamide poisoning than humans . This seems to be an opportunity for some nifty forced accelerated rat-evolution and gene-science .
Since these are epigenetic expressions , the evolution can be very fast . It might even be amenable to outside intervention in humans .
The problem is that the buffering system in the CNS is probably a stupid thing like increasing the rate of myelin-cell production . If you reduce the acrylamide by eating healthier , over-production of myelin-sheaths leads to things like Alzheimers . Eating too much acrylamide leads to neuropathy and (probably) diabetes . This is easily testable by feeding rats with Alzheimers acrylamide in controlled dosages . Has this been done ?
See link :
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/utils/lofref.fcgi?PrId=3048&uid=16242231&db=pubmed&url=http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0300-483X(05)00385-9
2. Acrylamide formation.
“The end-product is path-dependant “ … AW
The standard theory of formation of acrylamides involves a temperature over 120 degrees Celsius somewhere in the process .
So it was a shock when the FDA found very high concentrations of acrylamide in canned black olives and bottled prune juice . At first glance , the temperatures of canning and bottling (127 – 140 celsius) does not seem to high enough .
But it seems that both are washed in lye . And in the US the lye is laced by up to 0.2% of acrylamide ( see FDA regulations below) .
(It was extraordinarily difficult to get any information about processes and intermediate materials , mainly because the present model is path-independent . Potent sub-chronic intermediate chemicals are not taken into account at all .)
Black Ripe Canned Olives:Most olives in California are grown to supply canneries with green fruit to produce this canned dark olive we see on pizzas and in tacos and in every grocery store. The dark color is not a result of ripeness but of a process of lye curing and oxidizing the olive. The cured olive is pasteurized and canned in a light salt brine. If you open one of these cans and a small film is floating on top of the brine, it is most likely oil from the olive that has floated to the top. Many cans of olives are needlessly thrown out for this reason.
FDA regulations .
These were formulated before the extent of acrylamide became known . Due to bureaucratic inertia , they have not changed . So some foods are still prepared using dangerous levels of acrylamide .
AA=AcrylAmide
PAA=PolyAcrylAmide
U.S FDA (1998) regulates AA as an indirect food additive, a component of food-contact surfaces for single and repeated use. PAA has been approved for various applications. MPC in food contact PAA solutions: 0.02% (1990); MPC for PAA food additive: 0.05 to 0.2%.
US FDA has established regulations for use of AA: It can be used (l) in washing or to assist in the peeling of fruits and vegetables using lye if the concentration does not exceed 10 mg/l in the wash water and if no more than 0.2% AA is present; (2) in adhesives as a component (monomer) of articles intended for use in packaging, transporting, or holding food in accordance with the conditions prescribed in 21 CFR part 175.105; as (3) a component (monomer) of the uncoated or coated food-contact surface of paper and paperboard intended for use in producing, manufacturing, packaging, processing, preparing, treating, packing, transporting, or holding dry food in accordance with the conditions prescribed in 21 CFR part 176.180; (4) as a monomer in the manufacture of semirigid and rigid acrylic and modified acrylic plastics in the manufacture of articles intended for use in contact with food in accordance with the conditions prescribed in 21 CFR part 177.1010. (5) AA-sodium acrylate resins can be used as boiler water additives in the preparation of articles that will be in contact with food, if the water contains not more than 0.05% by weight of AA; (6) PAA can be used as a film former in the imprinting of soft-shell gelatin capsules if no more than 0.2% of the monomer is present; (7) homopolymers and copolymers of AA may be safely used as food packaging adhesives, providing the amount used does not exceed that "reasonably required to accomplish the intended effect"; (8) AA-acrylic acid resins may be safely used as components in the production of paper or paperboard used for packaging food, providing the resin contains less than 0.2% residual monomer and that the resin does not exceed 2.0% by weight of the paper or paperboard
From another site : an interesting snippet for rats :
From PMID: 2539170 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
Quote :
“This study supports the concept that acrylamide neuropathy worsens with moderate intensity of running activities for a prolonged period and that recovery may occur if vigorous exercise is avoided.”
Another feather in the scale of acrylamide vs hyperglucose : vigorous exercise will decrease glucose faster than acrylamide.
3. This is a simple , but very clear experiment illustrating the links between acrylamide and diabetes .
The implications of this article are enormous . Is it true ? Has any other comparable experiments been done ?
The inference is that , taken together with the sub-chronic data about acrylamide , the chicken-and-egg situation between acrylamide and diabetes resolves to a “acrylamide first” picture .
In other words , the diabetic feedback condition is kicked off by prolonged sub-chronic acrylamide poisoning . While acrylamide does not accumulate in tissue or blood , the damage it does is repaired at a slower rate than ingestion . Diabetes seems to be an attempt of the body to get nutrients to nerve-extremities that have been cut off from supplies by axon-transport diminishment .
Instead of a disease , diabetes (at least at the start ) seems to be an attempt at a cure .
Curing it :
1.Cut all acrylamide ingestion . This means any food prepared at over 120 degrees Celsius or containing very small amounts ( micrograms ) of acrylamides (like canned olives , bottled prune juice , anything washed by lye)
2. Do not exercise vigorously until 8 days have passed since cutting all acrylamide ingestion .
3. Type II diabetes should taper off . (This needs to be proven.)
4. Take high concentrations of Evening Primrose Oil: the only clinically proven substance to reverse peripheral neuropathy . Obviously , it will only work well if intake of acrylamide is sharply reduced .
Attenuation of acrylamide-induced neurotoxicity in diabetic rats.Al Deeb S, Al Moutaery K, Arshaduddin M, Biary N, Tariq M.Neuroscience Research Group, Armed Forces Hospital, P.O. Box 7897 (W-912), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.In recent years, an increasing number of cases of neuropathy have been reported as a result of accidental or occupational exposure to chemicals. Acrylamide (Acr), a widely used industrial chemical, is known to produce peripheral neuropathy that resembles diabetic neuropathy in many ways. However, the interaction between diabetes and Acr has not been studied. The present study was undertaken to examine the effect of streptozotocin (STZ)-induced diabetes on Acr-induced neurotoxicity in rats. Male Sprague-Dawley rats weighing 300 +/- 10 g were divided into four groups of 10 animals each. The rats in group 1 served as control, and received normal saline. The animals in group 2 were given Acr dissolved in physiological saline (50 mg/kg IP 3 days/week) for 2 weeks. The rats in group 3 and 4 were made diabetic by administering a single IP injection of STZ (50 mg/kg). The animals in group 3 served as diabetic control, whereas the rats in group 4 received Acr in the same dose regimen as in group 2, a week after induction of diabetes. Neurobehavioral responses including foot print length, hind limb function, landing foot splay, and the ability to stay on an inclined plane were assessed 48 h after the last dose of Acr followed by electrophysiological measurements. The animals were then sacrificed, and sciatic nerves were collected for biochemical analysis. The results of this study clearly showed a significant deterioration of neurobehavioral and electrophysiological responses in Acr-treated rats. Although no significant change in these parameters was observed in the diabetic (only) group, Acr-induced functional deficiency was significantly reduced in diabetic animals. However, the difference in electrophysiological response in Acr-treated diabetic and nondiabetic rats was not found to be statistically significant (p 0.05). The precise mechanism by which Acr induced neurobehavioral toxicity is reduced in diabetic animals warrants further investigations.PMID: 10758354 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
Happy eating
Andre
See previous “Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy and Acrylamide” in
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Dated 21/06/200
Major Money-making Opportunity.
“The end-product is path-dependant “ … AW
“You are what you eat.”
“Personalized Eating”
There are only two ways to measure the content of food :
- Find it directly by measuring it right before you eat it . A smart fork , spoon or knife . Smart false teeth ( a new meaning for spittoon) .
Lacking such a device , a monoclonal antibody strip should recognize the presence and concentration of a simple chemical like acrylamide . This should be easy to make .
A personalised smart eating utensil would advise the eater of nutritional needs and no-no’s via something like blue-tooth.
This can be done now with present technology .
Market : initially , about 10% of population :huge
This is a killer app!
- Trace the path of preparation . This is laborious , and practically impossible in a complex society .
A personal note:
I suffered increasingly for 14 years with peripheral diabetic neuropathy . When I became aware of the arguments below , I immediately (on 12/06/2006) cut out any food prepared at over 120 degrees Celsius .
The effect was dramatic. Within 2 days , a lot of the symptoms had disappeared .
( The curve is a standard exponential decreasing with time .) After 5 days I could sleep without chemical help . It is now day 10 . Glucose levels have improved , and instead of feeling hypo , I feel hungry . Still , early days .
I take daily 4x3x3 grams of Evening Primrose Oil (since 12/06/2006) , since this is the only clinically proven way of repairing peripheral neuropathy damage . Feeling is slowly returning to my feet and toes . Interestingly , there is no side-effect like in recovering from frostbite . (Tingling and burning sensations have disappeared . I still have occasional restless feet .)
The worst-case half-life of acrylamide is 8 days .
So 3-4 months should bring levels really low as long as no new acrylamide is ingested
The feeling that you have found something that actually works is indescribable .
Not only-knees up , Mother Brown , but feet-up as well !
Andre
1. Background:
1. Acrylamide (ACR) is a potent neuro-toxin . See http://epa.gov.iris/subst/0286.htm
2. It induces neural damage both in the Central Nervous System (CNS) and the Peripheral Nervous System (PNS) even at sub-chronic levels .
This has important implications for diabetes , alzheimers , etc
To quote from the experimental results in the link below :
“Thus, subchronic exposure to ACR affected the expression of death-related proteins in the CNS and PNS tissue, which indicate there is the early molecular regulatory mechanism of apoptosis in the neuropathy induced by ACR.”
Note that according to this experimental result , the CNS is somehow buffered against low continual dosages of acrylamide , but not the PNS .
The effect of acrylamide seems to change the expression of genes bcl-2 , bax and caspase-3 to bring about apoptosis of the Scwann-cells in the myelin sheath . The result is a train crash in the axon transport system of the PNS long before effects are noted in the CNS .
Indeed , the buffering might be seen as an evolutionary work-in-progress since the invention of the use of fire + metal ( = frying) .
You might say that rats (used in the experiments) are not fire-using , but that is not correct . They do certainly eat cooked discards from human sources , and have done so for at least a million years . Given their proven speed of adaptation to poisons , propensity for gene-swapping and short gestation period , they are almost certainly more adept at handling acrylamide poisoning than humans . This seems to be an opportunity for some nifty forced accelerated rat-evolution and gene-science .
Since these are epigenetic expressions , the evolution can be very fast . It might even be amenable to outside intervention in humans .
The problem is that the buffering system in the CNS is probably a stupid thing like increasing the rate of myelin-cell production . If you reduce the acrylamide by eating healthier , over-production of myelin-sheaths leads to things like Alzheimers . Eating too much acrylamide leads to neuropathy and (probably) diabetes . This is easily testable by feeding rats with Alzheimers acrylamide in controlled dosages . Has this been done ?
See link :
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/utils/lofref.fcgi?PrId=3048&uid=16242231&db=pubmed&url=http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0300-483X(05)00385-9
2. Acrylamide formation.
“The end-product is path-dependant “ … AW
The standard theory of formation of acrylamides involves a temperature over 120 degrees Celsius somewhere in the process .
So it was a shock when the FDA found very high concentrations of acrylamide in canned black olives and bottled prune juice . At first glance , the temperatures of canning and bottling (127 – 140 celsius) does not seem to high enough .
But it seems that both are washed in lye . And in the US the lye is laced by up to 0.2% of acrylamide ( see FDA regulations below) .
(It was extraordinarily difficult to get any information about processes and intermediate materials , mainly because the present model is path-independent . Potent sub-chronic intermediate chemicals are not taken into account at all .)
Black Ripe Canned Olives:Most olives in California are grown to supply canneries with green fruit to produce this canned dark olive we see on pizzas and in tacos and in every grocery store. The dark color is not a result of ripeness but of a process of lye curing and oxidizing the olive. The cured olive is pasteurized and canned in a light salt brine. If you open one of these cans and a small film is floating on top of the brine, it is most likely oil from the olive that has floated to the top. Many cans of olives are needlessly thrown out for this reason.
FDA regulations .
These were formulated before the extent of acrylamide became known . Due to bureaucratic inertia , they have not changed . So some foods are still prepared using dangerous levels of acrylamide .
AA=AcrylAmide
PAA=PolyAcrylAmide
U.S FDA (1998) regulates AA as an indirect food additive, a component of food-contact surfaces for single and repeated use. PAA has been approved for various applications. MPC in food contact PAA solutions: 0.02% (1990); MPC for PAA food additive: 0.05 to 0.2%.
US FDA has established regulations for use of AA: It can be used (l) in washing or to assist in the peeling of fruits and vegetables using lye if the concentration does not exceed 10 mg/l in the wash water and if no more than 0.2% AA is present; (2) in adhesives as a component (monomer) of articles intended for use in packaging, transporting, or holding food in accordance with the conditions prescribed in 21 CFR part 175.105; as (3) a component (monomer) of the uncoated or coated food-contact surface of paper and paperboard intended for use in producing, manufacturing, packaging, processing, preparing, treating, packing, transporting, or holding dry food in accordance with the conditions prescribed in 21 CFR part 176.180; (4) as a monomer in the manufacture of semirigid and rigid acrylic and modified acrylic plastics in the manufacture of articles intended for use in contact with food in accordance with the conditions prescribed in 21 CFR part 177.1010. (5) AA-sodium acrylate resins can be used as boiler water additives in the preparation of articles that will be in contact with food, if the water contains not more than 0.05% by weight of AA; (6) PAA can be used as a film former in the imprinting of soft-shell gelatin capsules if no more than 0.2% of the monomer is present; (7) homopolymers and copolymers of AA may be safely used as food packaging adhesives, providing the amount used does not exceed that "reasonably required to accomplish the intended effect"; (8) AA-acrylic acid resins may be safely used as components in the production of paper or paperboard used for packaging food, providing the resin contains less than 0.2% residual monomer and that the resin does not exceed 2.0% by weight of the paper or paperboard
From another site : an interesting snippet for rats :
From PMID: 2539170 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
Quote :
“This study supports the concept that acrylamide neuropathy worsens with moderate intensity of running activities for a prolonged period and that recovery may occur if vigorous exercise is avoided.”
Another feather in the scale of acrylamide vs hyperglucose : vigorous exercise will decrease glucose faster than acrylamide.
3. This is a simple , but very clear experiment illustrating the links between acrylamide and diabetes .
The implications of this article are enormous . Is it true ? Has any other comparable experiments been done ?
The inference is that , taken together with the sub-chronic data about acrylamide , the chicken-and-egg situation between acrylamide and diabetes resolves to a “acrylamide first” picture .
In other words , the diabetic feedback condition is kicked off by prolonged sub-chronic acrylamide poisoning . While acrylamide does not accumulate in tissue or blood , the damage it does is repaired at a slower rate than ingestion . Diabetes seems to be an attempt of the body to get nutrients to nerve-extremities that have been cut off from supplies by axon-transport diminishment .
Instead of a disease , diabetes (at least at the start ) seems to be an attempt at a cure .
Curing it :
1.Cut all acrylamide ingestion . This means any food prepared at over 120 degrees Celsius or containing very small amounts ( micrograms ) of acrylamides (like canned olives , bottled prune juice , anything washed by lye)
2. Do not exercise vigorously until 8 days have passed since cutting all acrylamide ingestion .
3. Type II diabetes should taper off . (This needs to be proven.)
4. Take high concentrations of Evening Primrose Oil: the only clinically proven substance to reverse peripheral neuropathy . Obviously , it will only work well if intake of acrylamide is sharply reduced .
Attenuation of acrylamide-induced neurotoxicity in diabetic rats.Al Deeb S, Al Moutaery K, Arshaduddin M, Biary N, Tariq M.Neuroscience Research Group, Armed Forces Hospital, P.O. Box 7897 (W-912), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.In recent years, an increasing number of cases of neuropathy have been reported as a result of accidental or occupational exposure to chemicals. Acrylamide (Acr), a widely used industrial chemical, is known to produce peripheral neuropathy that resembles diabetic neuropathy in many ways. However, the interaction between diabetes and Acr has not been studied. The present study was undertaken to examine the effect of streptozotocin (STZ)-induced diabetes on Acr-induced neurotoxicity in rats. Male Sprague-Dawley rats weighing 300 +/- 10 g were divided into four groups of 10 animals each. The rats in group 1 served as control, and received normal saline. The animals in group 2 were given Acr dissolved in physiological saline (50 mg/kg IP 3 days/week) for 2 weeks. The rats in group 3 and 4 were made diabetic by administering a single IP injection of STZ (50 mg/kg). The animals in group 3 served as diabetic control, whereas the rats in group 4 received Acr in the same dose regimen as in group 2, a week after induction of diabetes. Neurobehavioral responses including foot print length, hind limb function, landing foot splay, and the ability to stay on an inclined plane were assessed 48 h after the last dose of Acr followed by electrophysiological measurements. The animals were then sacrificed, and sciatic nerves were collected for biochemical analysis. The results of this study clearly showed a significant deterioration of neurobehavioral and electrophysiological responses in Acr-treated rats. Although no significant change in these parameters was observed in the diabetic (only) group, Acr-induced functional deficiency was significantly reduced in diabetic animals. However, the difference in electrophysiological response in Acr-treated diabetic and nondiabetic rats was not found to be statistically significant (p 0.05). The precise mechanism by which Acr induced neurobehavioral toxicity is reduced in diabetic animals warrants further investigations.PMID: 10758354 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
Happy eating
Andre
Friday, June 09, 2006
Training the Immune
Training the Immune System.
The immune system is capable of handling most diseases , but is primarily reactive . The initiative is with diseases causing rapid changes in the targeting markers . Two new powerful techniques , which works very well in synergy , have emerged :
Method :
1. Isolate some disease causing cells (ie cancerous cells , HIV , etc)
2.Slow the activity in the cells , thereby halting cell-wall changes , by using H2S concentrations graduated from (say) 75 ppm to 80 ppm.
3. Kill the cells using hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) .
Rationale :
1. The effect of H2S is well documented .
It slows the metabolism of the whole cell , including the cell-wall .
2. The effect of hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) :
Refer to
Cancer Immunology and Immunotherapy , Do1:10.007/s00262-006-0127—9
Or
New Scientist of 4 March 2006 p17 .
Cancer cells killed by hypochlorous acid (HOCl) ( bleach ) is five times more likely to be recognized as malign by dendritic cells than those killed by other means . This is an experimental fact .
The reason seems to be that one of the main methods by which the immune systems
kills deviant cells is by an injection of hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) . The fragments of hypochlorous acid mark the fragments of target cells as enemies to the immune system .
It is interesting to note that this seems to indicate a rapidly changing cell-wall structure for cancer cells , as there is a enemy-recognition , but not a very big one . This suggests the changeable cell-wall frozen at the moment of death does not encompass a large variety of the surface-configurations the cell can assume .
Hence we suggest a H2S concentration gradient up to stasis level to halt the various cell-wall permutations at various configurations at the moment of the hypochlorous acid kill . This should increase the immune system’s enemy recognition percentage .
The question remains why would the technique be more effective with H2S than without it ?
The answer is that these intractable diseases , by definition , has evolved anti-attack mechanisms . One of these would certainly involve rapid change in the surfaces of the cells . The cells in the treatment sample would quickly diverge from the body’s system . The body’s system would change slower because of signaling molecules (refer to quorum effect ) .
Thus , by immediately slowing the treatment sample by a graduated H2S concentration , killing it and immediately re-injecting , the immune system gains recognition of the enemy and hopefully some degree of advance on it .
The suspicion arises that a very simple molecule like HOCl is like other similarly simple molecules (nitrogen oxides , CO2 , etc that are used by living organisms as powerful signalling molecules .
HOCl kills any cell we know of . The only defense seems to be a thick shield . Is this wholly due to it’s reactive nature , or is there also a receptor site for it ? Immune cells kill by injecting it through a synapse-like structure . Thus , the targeting mechanism and the lethal payload share a linkage . This structure can learn through evolution .
Evolutionary speaking , the immune system will first try to kill by apoptosis as this is more economical . If this fails , then it will try to kill the cell by HOCl injection . If this fails and the system is still under stress , the chances are that it is a disease that is changing cell-walls quicker than the matching changes in the synapse-like immune cells mechanism .
The immune system will evolve two strategies :
First , try to decrease the change-speed in the attacking organism (first because this is older in evolutionary terms .)
Then , increase the learning speed of the immune system . Can you see where this is heading ?
Strategy 1 . Decrease in the change-speed in the attacking organism (whether internal like cancer or external like flu ) is handled by H2S type mechanisms . Hence the importance of sulfur ( see my previous notes ).
Strategy 2 . Increase the immune system’s learning speed.
Erk. This is a bit humbling .
On a basic level , Iodine seems to fill the requisite niche for a simple thing that has profound effects on the immune system , and thus on the nervous system .
The mechanism controlling the long-term , planet-wide distribution of sulfur and iodine is the algal organisms in the upper levels of the oceans . These are very temperature-dependant .
As the planetary temperature rises , the average concentration of sulfur and iodine falls because the algae retreat to the poles . Diseases increase . The immune systems first try the H2S route (because this is older ) , then try increasing the learning speed . We see this as intelligence .
Thus , we can see the pulse of intelligence in human affairs after the end of the last ice-age as a direct result of the increase in diseases caused by the decrease in sulfur and iodine concentrations .
An example: It is generally thought that the increased fishing off African waters caused the Africans to eat more bush-meat , thereby increasing their exposure to exotic diseases . But they have been eating the same for thousands of years . The critical lack is iodine
To sum up , human increased intelligence can be seen as an immune-system response to periods of warm inter-glacials . Since there is small evolutionary pressure to decrease intelligence , the effect ratcheted up . At present , humans can be seen as part of the planetary response to the relentless warming of the sun .
In other words , a planet like Earth which started off slightly too cool about 3 billion years ago , reached ideal life-temperature about 2 billion years ago and has gradually heated up as the sun became hotter (it is now 25% hotter than 3 billion years ago) .
The life-systems on the planet formed a complex feedback system which kept the system at livable temperatures . (Cf Daisyworld , Gaia and similar models) .
It is important to realize that the insolation from the sun fluctuated . The higher influx from sol left less leeway on the upper end of the boundary for living organisms on earth . A bit hotter , and living things did not as well with as a bit cooler .
So , as the sun became hotter , the earth’s thermostat evolved to be cooler (to leave room for fluctuations on the hot side). Please note that no conscious agency is necessary . Living learning mechanisms like discussed above evolved and became more intelligent with each heat-burp .
Till eventually , we get the present situation . Humans will have to cool the planet or become extinct . This can be seen to be (nearly) inevitable from the first planetary configuration . Another way of looking at it that humans are a part of the life systems on the planet ensuring its continuation .
Humans are a result of the heating of the planet , not the cause .
Intelligence is inevitable on any planet around a star on the main sequence .
Andre
The immune system is capable of handling most diseases , but is primarily reactive . The initiative is with diseases causing rapid changes in the targeting markers . Two new powerful techniques , which works very well in synergy , have emerged :
Method :
1. Isolate some disease causing cells (ie cancerous cells , HIV , etc)
2.Slow the activity in the cells , thereby halting cell-wall changes , by using H2S concentrations graduated from (say) 75 ppm to 80 ppm.
3. Kill the cells using hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) .
- Inject the lot back into the organism .
- Repeat quickly.
Rationale :
1. The effect of H2S is well documented .
It slows the metabolism of the whole cell , including the cell-wall .
2. The effect of hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) :
Refer to
Cancer Immunology and Immunotherapy , Do1:10.007/s00262-006-0127—9
Or
New Scientist of 4 March 2006 p17 .
Cancer cells killed by hypochlorous acid (HOCl) ( bleach ) is five times more likely to be recognized as malign by dendritic cells than those killed by other means . This is an experimental fact .
The reason seems to be that one of the main methods by which the immune systems
kills deviant cells is by an injection of hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) . The fragments of hypochlorous acid mark the fragments of target cells as enemies to the immune system .
It is interesting to note that this seems to indicate a rapidly changing cell-wall structure for cancer cells , as there is a enemy-recognition , but not a very big one . This suggests the changeable cell-wall frozen at the moment of death does not encompass a large variety of the surface-configurations the cell can assume .
Hence we suggest a H2S concentration gradient up to stasis level to halt the various cell-wall permutations at various configurations at the moment of the hypochlorous acid kill . This should increase the immune system’s enemy recognition percentage .
The question remains why would the technique be more effective with H2S than without it ?
The answer is that these intractable diseases , by definition , has evolved anti-attack mechanisms . One of these would certainly involve rapid change in the surfaces of the cells . The cells in the treatment sample would quickly diverge from the body’s system . The body’s system would change slower because of signaling molecules (refer to quorum effect ) .
Thus , by immediately slowing the treatment sample by a graduated H2S concentration , killing it and immediately re-injecting , the immune system gains recognition of the enemy and hopefully some degree of advance on it .
The suspicion arises that a very simple molecule like HOCl is like other similarly simple molecules (nitrogen oxides , CO2 , etc that are used by living organisms as powerful signalling molecules .
HOCl kills any cell we know of . The only defense seems to be a thick shield . Is this wholly due to it’s reactive nature , or is there also a receptor site for it ? Immune cells kill by injecting it through a synapse-like structure . Thus , the targeting mechanism and the lethal payload share a linkage . This structure can learn through evolution .
Evolutionary speaking , the immune system will first try to kill by apoptosis as this is more economical . If this fails , then it will try to kill the cell by HOCl injection . If this fails and the system is still under stress , the chances are that it is a disease that is changing cell-walls quicker than the matching changes in the synapse-like immune cells mechanism .
The immune system will evolve two strategies :
First , try to decrease the change-speed in the attacking organism (first because this is older in evolutionary terms .)
Then , increase the learning speed of the immune system . Can you see where this is heading ?
Strategy 1 . Decrease in the change-speed in the attacking organism (whether internal like cancer or external like flu ) is handled by H2S type mechanisms . Hence the importance of sulfur ( see my previous notes ).
Strategy 2 . Increase the immune system’s learning speed.
Erk. This is a bit humbling .
On a basic level , Iodine seems to fill the requisite niche for a simple thing that has profound effects on the immune system , and thus on the nervous system .
The mechanism controlling the long-term , planet-wide distribution of sulfur and iodine is the algal organisms in the upper levels of the oceans . These are very temperature-dependant .
As the planetary temperature rises , the average concentration of sulfur and iodine falls because the algae retreat to the poles . Diseases increase . The immune systems first try the H2S route (because this is older ) , then try increasing the learning speed . We see this as intelligence .
Thus , we can see the pulse of intelligence in human affairs after the end of the last ice-age as a direct result of the increase in diseases caused by the decrease in sulfur and iodine concentrations .
An example: It is generally thought that the increased fishing off African waters caused the Africans to eat more bush-meat , thereby increasing their exposure to exotic diseases . But they have been eating the same for thousands of years . The critical lack is iodine
To sum up , human increased intelligence can be seen as an immune-system response to periods of warm inter-glacials . Since there is small evolutionary pressure to decrease intelligence , the effect ratcheted up . At present , humans can be seen as part of the planetary response to the relentless warming of the sun .
In other words , a planet like Earth which started off slightly too cool about 3 billion years ago , reached ideal life-temperature about 2 billion years ago and has gradually heated up as the sun became hotter (it is now 25% hotter than 3 billion years ago) .
The life-systems on the planet formed a complex feedback system which kept the system at livable temperatures . (Cf Daisyworld , Gaia and similar models) .
It is important to realize that the insolation from the sun fluctuated . The higher influx from sol left less leeway on the upper end of the boundary for living organisms on earth . A bit hotter , and living things did not as well with as a bit cooler .
So , as the sun became hotter , the earth’s thermostat evolved to be cooler (to leave room for fluctuations on the hot side). Please note that no conscious agency is necessary . Living learning mechanisms like discussed above evolved and became more intelligent with each heat-burp .
Till eventually , we get the present situation . Humans will have to cool the planet or become extinct . This can be seen to be (nearly) inevitable from the first planetary configuration . Another way of looking at it that humans are a part of the life systems on the planet ensuring its continuation .
Humans are a result of the heating of the planet , not the cause .
Intelligence is inevitable on any planet around a star on the main sequence .
Andre
Primitives_0
Primitives _0
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Dated 7/06/2006
Quantity has a quality of its own (Stalin)
Background:
An example illustrates :
The visual system works well by having multiple small , very rapid recognition centers that recognise edges , corners , curves , etc . These are then assembled into further complex images further up the line to the brain .
A single neuron one or two layers away from this first primitive can handle surprisingly sophisticated pattern recognition ( eg bees trained to recognise human faces , only one neuron activating on fMRI scan on recognising a face)
The Advantages:
Note that the latest findings indicate that the only difference between animals and humans is the speed and capacity at which we perform tasks like planning , memory , tool usage , etc .
Also note that there is a fundamental correlation on neural-network level between speed and capacity . ( Hence the time-constraints in exams , IQ tests , sports ,ets)
Since we know that the minimum necessary sufficient number of dimensions in an Euclidean space is three , we can say that any visual system would work which has three layers . The more data is processed in each succeeding layer , the better , as long as there is a time-difference between viewpoints .
The Disadvantage
Definition :
A system lacking a primitive needed to recognise a new factor in the environment might not pick it up . Most primitives are learned in very early childhood and fixated by paring of neural connections on a hardware level . Eg Chinese “r” and “l” problems .
In other words , it is difficult for an adult to learn new languages , accents or to correct faulty visual systems .
Examples of Human Primitives:
Existing primitives:
1.Visual ( Retina-brain)
This ability would normally evolve into intelligent planning capability if there is sufficient number of neurons . Birds were first , but are constrained by a terrible evolutionary trap : in a low density atmosphere like Earth , their maximum weight ,and hence cranial capacity , is limited . They have a ceiling . If they go flightless , without hands they will lose the trajectory primitive , since the ability to compute trajectories will have no survival value . They optimise (like smart crows ) , but generalization is constrained by cranial size .
Start Speculation
The KT impact would have made no difference in Terran civilization , except that the civilized species would have descended from tree-dwelling dinosaurs . (See argument about insolation fibrillations and Gaia driving intelligence development. ) . Alien intelligent avians would possible if the atmospheric density is high enough to support birds with big brains . An estimate would be 6 to 8 times Terran densities at the moment . A planet like Venus would always have a denser atmosphere ( no large moon) . If there is life in a solar system , it would be seeded on all the planets by meteor impacts . Hence we can speculate that intelligent life on Venus evolved first from an avian base . Since the insolation fibrillations would have hit Venus first (because of its thicker atmosphere) , intelligence would have evolved there first in the solar system . Estimated time about 600 – 1000 million years before present . So where are they now ?
They are either extinct (most likely) , or the planet-bound ones are on Saturn . The clouds of Saturn would be very attractive to an avian species .
End Speculation
Apes coming out of the trees already had hands that could throw projectiles and had to have the trajectory primitive .
Hence , the evolution of upright stance ( to keep the hands free for throwing stones ) and stone using ( leading to neolithic technology ) came first and then led to further time-binding developments like planning , language and intelligence .
Notice that any human society , present and historical , spent an inordinate percentage of resources on trajectory games ( basically ball games) . It is pure Darwinnian statistics : good ballplayers have better time-binding primitives and are better at estimating future effects .
A good ball-player is not more successful because he is a team-player . He is a better team-player because he binds time better . Competition within co-operative boundaries .
Arrghh!
See Itarin for the nerd’s revenge .
2.Language : the primitives ( Broca’s area) are well established .
3.Fairness : Hardwired even into monkeys .
4.Math : count to 3 , rapidly and iteratively .
5.Threat avoidance : Hippocampus (Stress syndromes)
6.Balance (walking . ref vibrating soles.)
7.Creativity (not just LH/RH brain : it is a true primitive)
8.Music (inherent)
9.Risk/Reward : Profit . Making money (there has been heavy selection for this since the invention of agriculture ( ie surpluses)
10.Shapes (female hip , breast .Male buttocks , legs)
11. Pheromones
12. Immune system.
13. Religion
I’m sure there are more , but we know that these true primitives . Small , fast , multiple (mostly hardwired) data-handling nodes feeding into more sophisticated feedback systems.
2. Primitives we would like to have .
A wish list.
Note that we might have the sensors for the desired characteristic , but not the primitive . The primitive would only evolve if there was an evolutionary pressure for it .
The general principle is that , if a primitive has not evolved , it can be created by using some existing structure and building on that .
Andre
-------------------------------------
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Dated 7/06/2006
Quantity has a quality of its own (Stalin)
Background:
An example illustrates :
The visual system works well by having multiple small , very rapid recognition centers that recognise edges , corners , curves , etc . These are then assembled into further complex images further up the line to the brain .
A single neuron one or two layers away from this first primitive can handle surprisingly sophisticated pattern recognition ( eg bees trained to recognise human faces , only one neuron activating on fMRI scan on recognising a face)
The Advantages:
- Speed . This is all-important in a survival driven organism .
Note that the latest findings indicate that the only difference between animals and humans is the speed and capacity at which we perform tasks like planning , memory , tool usage , etc .
Also note that there is a fundamental correlation on neural-network level between speed and capacity . ( Hence the time-constraints in exams , IQ tests , sports ,ets)
- Reduction in complexity . You need fewer neurons to do the same task . Most of the number of input data are used in the first primitive layer , which is usually hardwired (ie retina) to be very fast . The subsequent neural-network layers need orders of magnitude fewer nodes . The assembly over time of different viewpoints in these primitive snapshots ( ie the differences) will pick up the elements missing in each snapshot due to poor resolution .
Since we know that the minimum necessary sufficient number of dimensions in an Euclidean space is three , we can say that any visual system would work which has three layers . The more data is processed in each succeeding layer , the better , as long as there is a time-difference between viewpoints .
The Disadvantage
Definition :
A system lacking a primitive needed to recognise a new factor in the environment might not pick it up . Most primitives are learned in very early childhood and fixated by paring of neural connections on a hardware level . Eg Chinese “r” and “l” problems .
In other words , it is difficult for an adult to learn new languages , accents or to correct faulty visual systems .
Examples of Human Primitives:
Existing primitives:
1.Visual ( Retina-brain)
- Pattern recognition (lines , edges curves,etc)
- Peripheral movement (snapshot differences )
- Linear Trajectory (integration of eye and body movement in snapshot differences. Very high speed required . ) This is the ur time-binding primitive . How the past and the projected future connect .
This ability would normally evolve into intelligent planning capability if there is sufficient number of neurons . Birds were first , but are constrained by a terrible evolutionary trap : in a low density atmosphere like Earth , their maximum weight ,and hence cranial capacity , is limited . They have a ceiling . If they go flightless , without hands they will lose the trajectory primitive , since the ability to compute trajectories will have no survival value . They optimise (like smart crows ) , but generalization is constrained by cranial size .
Start Speculation
The KT impact would have made no difference in Terran civilization , except that the civilized species would have descended from tree-dwelling dinosaurs . (See argument about insolation fibrillations and Gaia driving intelligence development. ) . Alien intelligent avians would possible if the atmospheric density is high enough to support birds with big brains . An estimate would be 6 to 8 times Terran densities at the moment . A planet like Venus would always have a denser atmosphere ( no large moon) . If there is life in a solar system , it would be seeded on all the planets by meteor impacts . Hence we can speculate that intelligent life on Venus evolved first from an avian base . Since the insolation fibrillations would have hit Venus first (because of its thicker atmosphere) , intelligence would have evolved there first in the solar system . Estimated time about 600 – 1000 million years before present . So where are they now ?
They are either extinct (most likely) , or the planet-bound ones are on Saturn . The clouds of Saturn would be very attractive to an avian species .
End Speculation
Apes coming out of the trees already had hands that could throw projectiles and had to have the trajectory primitive .
Hence , the evolution of upright stance ( to keep the hands free for throwing stones ) and stone using ( leading to neolithic technology ) came first and then led to further time-binding developments like planning , language and intelligence .
Notice that any human society , present and historical , spent an inordinate percentage of resources on trajectory games ( basically ball games) . It is pure Darwinnian statistics : good ballplayers have better time-binding primitives and are better at estimating future effects .
A good ball-player is not more successful because he is a team-player . He is a better team-player because he binds time better . Competition within co-operative boundaries .
Arrghh!
See Itarin for the nerd’s revenge .
2.Language : the primitives ( Broca’s area) are well established .
3.Fairness : Hardwired even into monkeys .
4.Math : count to 3 , rapidly and iteratively .
5.Threat avoidance : Hippocampus (Stress syndromes)
6.Balance (walking . ref vibrating soles.)
7.Creativity (not just LH/RH brain : it is a true primitive)
8.Music (inherent)
9.Risk/Reward : Profit . Making money (there has been heavy selection for this since the invention of agriculture ( ie surpluses)
10.Shapes (female hip , breast .Male buttocks , legs)
11. Pheromones
12. Immune system.
13. Religion
I’m sure there are more , but we know that these true primitives . Small , fast , multiple (mostly hardwired) data-handling nodes feeding into more sophisticated feedback systems.
2. Primitives we would like to have .
A wish list.
Note that we might have the sensors for the desired characteristic , but not the primitive . The primitive would only evolve if there was an evolutionary pressure for it .
- Spin
- Controlling the potentiating of hippocampus , immune system or any other primitive . A meta-primitive .
- Recognising and controlling quantum events .
- Recognising and controlling disequilibrium events
- Recognise and predict chaotic attractors.
- Sense and manipulate magnetic fields .
- Sense and manipulate nuclear fields .
- Sense and manipulate gravitational fields .
The general principle is that , if a primitive has not evolved , it can be created by using some existing structure and building on that .
Andre
-------------------------------------
Neuropathy
Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy and Acrylamide
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Dated 11/06/2006
Background:
See links at the bottom .
Acrylamide is formed by the Maillard reaction , when the Amino Acid Asparigine reacts with reducing sugars like glucose and fructose at a temperature over 120 degrees Celsius . (ie when bread , potatoes , cookies , etc begin to brown ).
Asparigine + glucose/fructose + (temp>120 Celsius) = Acrylamide
Acrylamide is a potent neurotoxin . It interferes with the internal neuronal transport in the axon . The transport of nutrients from axon nucleus to the end point of the nerve and the return of breakdown products of long nerves ( like to fingers and toes ) are first affected . The ends of the axon start to die . ( Numbness in extremities . )
Sensations of restlessness , tingling , burning , etc associated with peripheral neuropathy are probably caused by the spurious signals caused by the accumulation of debris at the interference site in the charge balance of the axon wall .
( Think train derailment in the middle of the Karoo , with the smashed up carriages messing up the signalling system )
Since many non-diabetics have peripheral neuropathy , the two diseases do not seem to be directly linked . But a synergistic link is strongly suspected .
But if you are diabetic and already have had attacks of peripheral neuropathy , ingesting high concentrations of acrylamide will surely lead to an attack of peripheral neuropathy .
Note the short half-life of acrylamide means that the concentration of acrylamide is driven by diet alone .
Asparigine , glucose/fructose , (temp>120 Celsius) are all three necessary to produce Acrylamide . Hence foods low on the first two , or cooked below 120 Celsius are safe .
The EU study found that 90% of diet derived acrylamide comes from :
French Fries (slap chips) : 16% – 30%
Potato crisps : 6% - 46%
Coffee (its always roasted ) : 13% - 39%
Pastries and Sweet biscuits : 10% - 20%
Bread , breadrolls , pizza and toast (especially the crust) : 10% - 30%
In general , avoid anything that used a temperature of 120 Celsius or above in it’s preparation . This includes teas .The effective concentrations of acrylamide needed to trigger the reaction is very low , especially for diabetics already sensitized .
Anything low GI microwaved submerged in water , or cooked without burning or browning should be ok .
Durum pastas should be ok , but no grills or ovens . Bye-bye toasted cheese sandwiches .
Bread.
If you have to eat bread , cut off the crusts . Mothers used to do this for their children .
Any connection to attention Deficit Disorder ?
The irritability felt in the first stages of peripheral neuropathy ( ie wandering feet , can’t keep still ) and later on , irritable aggressiveness , sleeplessness and any activity to focus attention on anything except the painful feet ) sounds like the recipe for aggressive expansion .
Remember , that only the upper and middle classes ate bread . The bottom class (99 % of the population till about 1800 AD) ate porridge morning , noon and night. Milling kernels of wheat was ( and is ) expensive in real energy terms . (cf “Roman women will not grind wheat or cook “ after the Sabine episode , or lack of white bread in WW2) . Since it is a high energy food , it would be one of the great ironies of history that Empires and Inventions were caused by bread crusts . There is also a positive feedback element involved , namely that the type of wheat with the highest aspargine content will be the most widespread ( spread by the restless conquerors ) .
One wonders if the political instability inherent in the Middle East and North Africa are due to the high acrylamide content of their traditionally baked (from hot rock flat bread) foods . (In poorer regions like Europe , the plebs could not afford the energy cost .)
Hah! So much for meat . The weevilly baked biscuit of the middle ages was the driving force of the mariners to populate the earth with high-asparigine wheat .
No wonder things have gotten more unstable . For every diabetic , there are at least ten with an itchy , irritable nervosity .
Will humans use aspariginase ? This is an enzyme that destroys asparigine . Dosing food to a country with this will render them relatively docile in long run . Any volunteers ?
An interesting corollary is rice vs wheat . Rice is usually cooked at 100 Celsius . As the Chinese and Indian populations shift to high-arganine western wheat types , not only will their diabetes rates rise , but their aggression will rise at a much higher rate .
Interesting times for all .
Can one bake bread at less than 120 Celsius ?
See web references on Acrylamide:
1. PIM’s (1999) : The clinical picture .
http://www.inchem.org/documents/pims/chemical/pim652.htm
Some highlights:
Chronic exposure to Acrylamide:
Chronic acrylamide toxicity is characterized by local
dermatitis, excessive sweating, fatigue, weight loss and
features of progressive CNS disturbance (especially truncal ataxia) and peripheral neuropathy. The severity of symptoms and the rapidity of onset appears to relate to the duration of exposure to, and the daily dose of, acrylamide.
Recovery over a period of weeks to months following removal from exposure is the usual course.
Biological half-life by route of exposure
In blood, acrylamide has a half-life of approximately 2
hours. In tissues, total acrylamide (parent compound an
metabolites) exhibits biphasic elimination with an initial
half-life of approximately 5 hours and a terminal half life of 8 days (Edwards, 1975; Miller et al., 1982).
Acrylamide does not accumulate in the body. [Note: all data derived from animal studies].
2. On 25 April 2002 (cf New Scientist of 22 April 2006 p 8 ) , Sweden’s National Food Administration announced that acrylamide in significant concentrations was found in many common processed foods . This prompted a major clinical food study by the European Union : the results are given on the EU’s food site:
http://www.ciaa.be click on Documents , Positions , search on acrylamides from website .
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Dated 11/06/2006
Background:
See links at the bottom .
Acrylamide is formed by the Maillard reaction , when the Amino Acid Asparigine reacts with reducing sugars like glucose and fructose at a temperature over 120 degrees Celsius . (ie when bread , potatoes , cookies , etc begin to brown ).
Asparigine + glucose/fructose + (temp>120 Celsius) = Acrylamide
Acrylamide is a potent neurotoxin . It interferes with the internal neuronal transport in the axon . The transport of nutrients from axon nucleus to the end point of the nerve and the return of breakdown products of long nerves ( like to fingers and toes ) are first affected . The ends of the axon start to die . ( Numbness in extremities . )
Sensations of restlessness , tingling , burning , etc associated with peripheral neuropathy are probably caused by the spurious signals caused by the accumulation of debris at the interference site in the charge balance of the axon wall .
( Think train derailment in the middle of the Karoo , with the smashed up carriages messing up the signalling system )
Since many non-diabetics have peripheral neuropathy , the two diseases do not seem to be directly linked . But a synergistic link is strongly suspected .
But if you are diabetic and already have had attacks of peripheral neuropathy , ingesting high concentrations of acrylamide will surely lead to an attack of peripheral neuropathy .
Note the short half-life of acrylamide means that the concentration of acrylamide is driven by diet alone .
Asparigine , glucose/fructose , (temp>120 Celsius) are all three necessary to produce Acrylamide . Hence foods low on the first two , or cooked below 120 Celsius are safe .
The EU study found that 90% of diet derived acrylamide comes from :
French Fries (slap chips) : 16% – 30%
Potato crisps : 6% - 46%
Coffee (its always roasted ) : 13% - 39%
Pastries and Sweet biscuits : 10% - 20%
Bread , breadrolls , pizza and toast (especially the crust) : 10% - 30%
In general , avoid anything that used a temperature of 120 Celsius or above in it’s preparation . This includes teas .The effective concentrations of acrylamide needed to trigger the reaction is very low , especially for diabetics already sensitized .
Anything low GI microwaved submerged in water , or cooked without burning or browning should be ok .
Durum pastas should be ok , but no grills or ovens . Bye-bye toasted cheese sandwiches .
Bread.
If you have to eat bread , cut off the crusts . Mothers used to do this for their children .
Any connection to attention Deficit Disorder ?
The irritability felt in the first stages of peripheral neuropathy ( ie wandering feet , can’t keep still ) and later on , irritable aggressiveness , sleeplessness and any activity to focus attention on anything except the painful feet ) sounds like the recipe for aggressive expansion .
Remember , that only the upper and middle classes ate bread . The bottom class (99 % of the population till about 1800 AD) ate porridge morning , noon and night. Milling kernels of wheat was ( and is ) expensive in real energy terms . (cf “Roman women will not grind wheat or cook “ after the Sabine episode , or lack of white bread in WW2) . Since it is a high energy food , it would be one of the great ironies of history that Empires and Inventions were caused by bread crusts . There is also a positive feedback element involved , namely that the type of wheat with the highest aspargine content will be the most widespread ( spread by the restless conquerors ) .
One wonders if the political instability inherent in the Middle East and North Africa are due to the high acrylamide content of their traditionally baked (from hot rock flat bread) foods . (In poorer regions like Europe , the plebs could not afford the energy cost .)
Hah! So much for meat . The weevilly baked biscuit of the middle ages was the driving force of the mariners to populate the earth with high-asparigine wheat .
No wonder things have gotten more unstable . For every diabetic , there are at least ten with an itchy , irritable nervosity .
Will humans use aspariginase ? This is an enzyme that destroys asparigine . Dosing food to a country with this will render them relatively docile in long run . Any volunteers ?
An interesting corollary is rice vs wheat . Rice is usually cooked at 100 Celsius . As the Chinese and Indian populations shift to high-arganine western wheat types , not only will their diabetes rates rise , but their aggression will rise at a much higher rate .
Interesting times for all .
Can one bake bread at less than 120 Celsius ?
See web references on Acrylamide:
1. PIM’s (1999) : The clinical picture .
http://www.inchem.org/documents/pims/chemical/pim652.htm
Some highlights:
Chronic exposure to Acrylamide:
Chronic acrylamide toxicity is characterized by local
dermatitis, excessive sweating, fatigue, weight loss and
features of progressive CNS disturbance (especially truncal ataxia) and peripheral neuropathy. The severity of symptoms and the rapidity of onset appears to relate to the duration of exposure to, and the daily dose of, acrylamide.
Recovery over a period of weeks to months following removal from exposure is the usual course.
Biological half-life by route of exposure
In blood, acrylamide has a half-life of approximately 2
hours. In tissues, total acrylamide (parent compound an
metabolites) exhibits biphasic elimination with an initial
half-life of approximately 5 hours and a terminal half life of 8 days (Edwards, 1975; Miller et al., 1982).
Acrylamide does not accumulate in the body. [Note: all data derived from animal studies].
2. On 25 April 2002 (cf New Scientist of 22 April 2006 p 8 ) , Sweden’s National Food Administration announced that acrylamide in significant concentrations was found in many common processed foods . This prompted a major clinical food study by the European Union : the results are given on the EU’s food site:
http://www.ciaa.be click on Documents , Positions , search on acrylamides from website .
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, May 26, 2006
Birdflu Survival Up
Birdflu Survival Update –8
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Dated 26/05/2006
On Your Marks!
The race is about to go to the starting blocks .
At the end below is a report which seems to indicate that human-human transmission has chained .
In previous human-human transmission cases , the transmission was :
Chicken -> human(1) -> many humans in contact with human(1) only .
The virus could easily be contained . Quarantine is very effective .
However , in this case the transmission was :
Chicken -> human(1) -> human(2) -> human(3) -> ? .
The virus according to report has not mutated . How can they know ? There has been no time for a full gene-sequencing . So they only looked at some markers .
This raises the spectre of Priming .
Priming .
In general :
Lethality remains switched off until triggered by the environment .
It must be emphasized that is a dynamic process driven purely by evolution .
Background:
The body contains many potentially lethal biosystems (call them the Pirates) whose predations are kept in check by the body’s counter system (call it the Navy ) . Then there are also the legitimate activities ( call them the Merchants).
Evolution :
Merchants would be the first , with Pirates an extremely close second . The Navy would have evolved after mitochondria ( which would be Pirates turned into Merchants by symbiosis with Mitochondria .) The Merchants with Mitochondria can now afford to hire privateers (former Pirates ) . They pay them with energy and convert them into Navy .
This makes multi-cellular organisms possible .
Combinations possible:
Navy – Navy ( Body attacks its own immune system)
Navy – Pirates (The intended function)
Navy – Merchant ( Autoimmune , etc)
Pirate – Pirate ( the baddies zap each other , privateers bribed by Merchants)
Pirate – Navy ( overwhelming , infiltrating or undermining the immune system)
Pirate – Merchant (the originating robbery :diseases)
Merchant – Merchant ( normal competition within an co-operative network)
Merchant – Pirate (bribing Pirates and converting them to privateers and then Navy)
Merchant – Navy ( paying Navy with goods , energy and information)
Flags of Convenience.
Many Pirates fly flags of convenience , and as long as they do no harm , the Navy tolerates them .
If the Navy tries to board everyone , they quickly run out of resources . They can only afford to check the known Pirates . In our polluted environment , the number of chemicals unknown to the Navy is increasingly very rapidly . An intriguing speculation is that some metabolic abnormalities like Diabetes is an attempt by the Navy to get more resources , but hobbled by some bottleneck in resources .
Look at the super-immune systems :
Crocodiles and sharks . Crocs are the best .
The croc can hibernate : H2S mechanism . This must perfuse the whole system to be effective . Once it is switched off , the whole immune system (and selected metabolic systems) has to go into overdrive to get enough energy to the immune system to fuel the identification and blocking of any chemical . Remember , that crocs have been doing this for about 200 million years . Asteroid impacts are ho-hum . Acidification of the ocean ? Just bubble it through your teeth for Coke . Hot , cold ,dry wet ,etc
But they evolved it quite early , so the last couple of hundred million years do not count , except to show that it freezes gene , epigenetic , retro-virus and cultural systems . Mutation as well . Notice that the present croc is very similar to the one 200 MY ago . This is nearly inconceivable , except for there it is .
The only similarity in the surviving crocs is their environment : alteration between oxygen-rich and oxygen-poor .(Up and down in the water) Not much promise .
But crocs are equivalent to live-birth sharks and mammals , only slightly better : the eggs and the live young are carried in their mouths for a significant period of time . The decaying meat between its teeth generates enough H2S to kick in suspended animation in the small fry . The biggie will probably have evolved (albeit slowly) to be very sensitive to low concentrations of H2S .
The decay also generates methane (CH4) . It stashes its prey underwater , where anaerobic rotting produces more CH4 than H2S . Remember that the beastie’s mechanisms are 200 MY old and must have evolved in an oxygen rich atmosphere .
Basically , it means that something in the crocs mouth causes an epigenetic-like effect on its offspring .
What can it be ?
It must be a simple chemical . (Old). To be a signal , it must not be common . (Shannon) It must really speed up the metabolism in the same concentrations as H2S (as they evolved at the same time) .
Oxygen-type metabolisms must be switched on without upper boundaries : like what one would expect in the ur-methane atmosphere . In other words , the presence of methane stimulated ur-bacteria to utmost metabolic activity to make oxygen (standard evolutionary theory ) .The oxygen metabolism is then at max without stoppers .
Methane (CH4) springs to mind .
Crocs and sharks use a whipsaw effect between H2S and CH4 to freeze any change
( and be effectively immortal . The price is no evolution)
It only works for a multicellular organism:
How it works :
It is a cycle effect .
H2S reduces the metabolism quickly to very low levels.
CH4 supercharges the metabolism , out of the frozen state , but not all at once , since it thaws in layers . The highly energetic layers are templated on the H2S-frozen templates in the DNA and Epigenetic processes .
It is like remembering something by repeating it continuously.
The error rate is zero as long as the message is less or equal to the short-term memory.
In genetic terms , the short-term memory is the genome and epigenetic terms bound to it . But not Cultural systems.
Awesome .
The moment the Navy shows weakness or the Pirates count noses and sense that they have to attack immediately to share in the spoils (the tragedy of commons ) , they hoist the Jolly Roger and haul out the cannons .
Many Merchants might even join in .
But all Pirate captains are not equal . Some are much , much worse than others . The really evil captains’ progeny spread in a statistical fashion . The plague ones who are only one mutational jump away from lethality will display superior multiplying and spreading ability (otherwise they will not be plagues) . They will also think similarly and react similarly to the triggering situations .
They will be all over , spread by the mobility inherent in the Civilization of Cells or Nations .
This is known as Priming .
At some point , local conditions cause the last fateful mutation . The same conditions are likely to be repeated in the ambit of the contact sphere . The same mutation results in a statistically significant number of lethality cases , as well as contagious triggering .
The resulting pandemic seems to arise from multiple sources , It is like a kettle coming to boil . Some bubbles do start others , but many are just from random , chaotic stimuli triggering the lethality .
Unfortunately , pandemics like these seems to be a logical consequence of connectivity (ie mobility of gene or meme markers ).
This is independent of whether the information is in genes or memes .
In other words , a lot of mobility like an Empire or Globalization will inevitably mean a plague , either bacterial/viral or meme. (Like Nazism , communism ,etc)
What to do :
Alternating (80 ppm H2S) with ( 80 ppm CH4 + mega sugar + multimineral + multivitamin ) should at least halt aging .
Stem cell effects:
The same regime effects limb regeneration in crocs and sharks .
So , getting younger is not impossible .
Eternal Youth !
Yours
Andre Willers
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Report.
Bird flu team 'too late' for answers
Clara Pirani, Medical reporter
May 26, 2006
DELAYS in the investigation of the world's largest outbreak of bird flu may prevent health officials from ever knowing if human-to-human transmission of the disease killed six members of the same family in Indonesia.
A team of the world's leading avian flu experts has arrived in the remote village of Kubu Sembelang in North Sumatra to investigate the deaths, which occurred during the past three weeks.
However, the director of the World Health Organisation's Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne, Ian Gust, said most of the evidence would already have been destroyed.
"We've found with the investigation of clusters in the past that by the time the investigators get there, it's too late," he said yesterday. "Any infected birds that might have been around have gone or been killed.
"You can't take the adequate samples and you'll never know the cause, and that's a problem."
Indonesian health officials were not responding quickly enough to potential cases of the disease, Dr Gust told The Australian.
"Indonesia is still struggling with it. Vietnam, which had a very serious problem with bird flu, has essentially brought it under control by very vigorous health measures, whereas Indonesia is still getting lots of outbreaks in birds and lots of cases in humans," Dr Gust said.
Vietnam reported 61 cases of bird flu last year, including 19 deaths - significantly more than any other country.
Twenty-two people have died of bird flu in Indonesia this year while Vietnam has experienced no new cases.
Peter Cordingley, spokesman for the WHO's West Pacific region, said investigators were concerned about the cluster of deaths in North Sumatra - the largest to date - and the source of the outbreak.
He said they had not found any infected poultry in the village.
"When we can't find a common outside source, we have to look at the potential for human-to-human transmission," he said.
Infected poultry has been the source of the majority of human infections worldwide. However, the WHO suspects human-to-human transmission may have caused up to half a dozen previous clusters in recent years.
Mr Cordingley said there was no effective test to confirm human-to-human transmission.
"We've had very strong evidence of human-to-human transmission before, but in the end we haven't been able to draw any further conclusions, so we just don't know," he said.
Seven members of the same family in North Sumatra contracted the disease and six have died in the past three weeks.
An eighth family member, the first to become ill, died on May 4, but no samples were taken to confirm the cause of death.
Two of the men who died spent the night of April 29 in a small room with their mother - the first family member to fall ill - who was reportedly coughing frequently. A third son has the disease and is the sole surviving family member.
Another family member, a 32-year-old father, died on Monday after caring for his sick son.
Other infected family members lived in adjacent homes.
The H5N1 virus has killed 124 people since 2003 and more than 30 countries have reported outbreaks in poultry or wild birds.
The WHO has previously warned that clusters of the disease are considerably more dangerous than isolated infections because they raise the possibility that the virus might have mutated, allowing it to spread rapidly among humans, and sparking a pandemic that could kill millions of people.
However, Mr Cordingley said there was no evidence of spread within the general community with the latest cluster.
"Nobody outside the family shows any sign of infection, so we don't have a virus on the run," he said. "The virus samples from those who died shows the virus is not mutating and it shows no new ability to mutate from chickens to humans."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Dated 26/05/2006
On Your Marks!
The race is about to go to the starting blocks .
At the end below is a report which seems to indicate that human-human transmission has chained .
In previous human-human transmission cases , the transmission was :
Chicken -> human(1) -> many humans in contact with human(1) only .
The virus could easily be contained . Quarantine is very effective .
However , in this case the transmission was :
Chicken -> human(1) -> human(2) -> human(3) -> ? .
The virus according to report has not mutated . How can they know ? There has been no time for a full gene-sequencing . So they only looked at some markers .
This raises the spectre of Priming .
Priming .
In general :
Lethality remains switched off until triggered by the environment .
It must be emphasized that is a dynamic process driven purely by evolution .
Background:
The body contains many potentially lethal biosystems (call them the Pirates) whose predations are kept in check by the body’s counter system (call it the Navy ) . Then there are also the legitimate activities ( call them the Merchants).
Evolution :
Merchants would be the first , with Pirates an extremely close second . The Navy would have evolved after mitochondria ( which would be Pirates turned into Merchants by symbiosis with Mitochondria .) The Merchants with Mitochondria can now afford to hire privateers (former Pirates ) . They pay them with energy and convert them into Navy .
This makes multi-cellular organisms possible .
Combinations possible:
Navy – Navy ( Body attacks its own immune system)
Navy – Pirates (The intended function)
Navy – Merchant ( Autoimmune , etc)
Pirate – Pirate ( the baddies zap each other , privateers bribed by Merchants)
Pirate – Navy ( overwhelming , infiltrating or undermining the immune system)
Pirate – Merchant (the originating robbery :diseases)
Merchant – Merchant ( normal competition within an co-operative network)
Merchant – Pirate (bribing Pirates and converting them to privateers and then Navy)
Merchant – Navy ( paying Navy with goods , energy and information)
Flags of Convenience.
Many Pirates fly flags of convenience , and as long as they do no harm , the Navy tolerates them .
If the Navy tries to board everyone , they quickly run out of resources . They can only afford to check the known Pirates . In our polluted environment , the number of chemicals unknown to the Navy is increasingly very rapidly . An intriguing speculation is that some metabolic abnormalities like Diabetes is an attempt by the Navy to get more resources , but hobbled by some bottleneck in resources .
Look at the super-immune systems :
Crocodiles and sharks . Crocs are the best .
The croc can hibernate : H2S mechanism . This must perfuse the whole system to be effective . Once it is switched off , the whole immune system (and selected metabolic systems) has to go into overdrive to get enough energy to the immune system to fuel the identification and blocking of any chemical . Remember , that crocs have been doing this for about 200 million years . Asteroid impacts are ho-hum . Acidification of the ocean ? Just bubble it through your teeth for Coke . Hot , cold ,dry wet ,etc
But they evolved it quite early , so the last couple of hundred million years do not count , except to show that it freezes gene , epigenetic , retro-virus and cultural systems . Mutation as well . Notice that the present croc is very similar to the one 200 MY ago . This is nearly inconceivable , except for there it is .
The only similarity in the surviving crocs is their environment : alteration between oxygen-rich and oxygen-poor .(Up and down in the water) Not much promise .
But crocs are equivalent to live-birth sharks and mammals , only slightly better : the eggs and the live young are carried in their mouths for a significant period of time . The decaying meat between its teeth generates enough H2S to kick in suspended animation in the small fry . The biggie will probably have evolved (albeit slowly) to be very sensitive to low concentrations of H2S .
The decay also generates methane (CH4) . It stashes its prey underwater , where anaerobic rotting produces more CH4 than H2S . Remember that the beastie’s mechanisms are 200 MY old and must have evolved in an oxygen rich atmosphere .
Basically , it means that something in the crocs mouth causes an epigenetic-like effect on its offspring .
What can it be ?
It must be a simple chemical . (Old). To be a signal , it must not be common . (Shannon) It must really speed up the metabolism in the same concentrations as H2S (as they evolved at the same time) .
Oxygen-type metabolisms must be switched on without upper boundaries : like what one would expect in the ur-methane atmosphere . In other words , the presence of methane stimulated ur-bacteria to utmost metabolic activity to make oxygen (standard evolutionary theory ) .The oxygen metabolism is then at max without stoppers .
Methane (CH4) springs to mind .
Crocs and sharks use a whipsaw effect between H2S and CH4 to freeze any change
( and be effectively immortal . The price is no evolution)
It only works for a multicellular organism:
How it works :
It is a cycle effect .
H2S reduces the metabolism quickly to very low levels.
CH4 supercharges the metabolism , out of the frozen state , but not all at once , since it thaws in layers . The highly energetic layers are templated on the H2S-frozen templates in the DNA and Epigenetic processes .
It is like remembering something by repeating it continuously.
The error rate is zero as long as the message is less or equal to the short-term memory.
In genetic terms , the short-term memory is the genome and epigenetic terms bound to it . But not Cultural systems.
Awesome .
The moment the Navy shows weakness or the Pirates count noses and sense that they have to attack immediately to share in the spoils (the tragedy of commons ) , they hoist the Jolly Roger and haul out the cannons .
Many Merchants might even join in .
But all Pirate captains are not equal . Some are much , much worse than others . The really evil captains’ progeny spread in a statistical fashion . The plague ones who are only one mutational jump away from lethality will display superior multiplying and spreading ability (otherwise they will not be plagues) . They will also think similarly and react similarly to the triggering situations .
They will be all over , spread by the mobility inherent in the Civilization of Cells or Nations .
This is known as Priming .
At some point , local conditions cause the last fateful mutation . The same conditions are likely to be repeated in the ambit of the contact sphere . The same mutation results in a statistically significant number of lethality cases , as well as contagious triggering .
The resulting pandemic seems to arise from multiple sources , It is like a kettle coming to boil . Some bubbles do start others , but many are just from random , chaotic stimuli triggering the lethality .
Unfortunately , pandemics like these seems to be a logical consequence of connectivity (ie mobility of gene or meme markers ).
This is independent of whether the information is in genes or memes .
In other words , a lot of mobility like an Empire or Globalization will inevitably mean a plague , either bacterial/viral or meme. (Like Nazism , communism ,etc)
What to do :
Alternating (80 ppm H2S) with ( 80 ppm CH4 + mega sugar + multimineral + multivitamin ) should at least halt aging .
Stem cell effects:
The same regime effects limb regeneration in crocs and sharks .
So , getting younger is not impossible .
Eternal Youth !
Yours
Andre Willers
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Report.
Bird flu team 'too late' for answers
Clara Pirani, Medical reporter
May 26, 2006
DELAYS in the investigation of the world's largest outbreak of bird flu may prevent health officials from ever knowing if human-to-human transmission of the disease killed six members of the same family in Indonesia.
A team of the world's leading avian flu experts has arrived in the remote village of Kubu Sembelang in North Sumatra to investigate the deaths, which occurred during the past three weeks.
However, the director of the World Health Organisation's Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne, Ian Gust, said most of the evidence would already have been destroyed.
"We've found with the investigation of clusters in the past that by the time the investigators get there, it's too late," he said yesterday. "Any infected birds that might have been around have gone or been killed.
"You can't take the adequate samples and you'll never know the cause, and that's a problem."
Indonesian health officials were not responding quickly enough to potential cases of the disease, Dr Gust told The Australian.
"Indonesia is still struggling with it. Vietnam, which had a very serious problem with bird flu, has essentially brought it under control by very vigorous health measures, whereas Indonesia is still getting lots of outbreaks in birds and lots of cases in humans," Dr Gust said.
Vietnam reported 61 cases of bird flu last year, including 19 deaths - significantly more than any other country.
Twenty-two people have died of bird flu in Indonesia this year while Vietnam has experienced no new cases.
Peter Cordingley, spokesman for the WHO's West Pacific region, said investigators were concerned about the cluster of deaths in North Sumatra - the largest to date - and the source of the outbreak.
He said they had not found any infected poultry in the village.
"When we can't find a common outside source, we have to look at the potential for human-to-human transmission," he said.
Infected poultry has been the source of the majority of human infections worldwide. However, the WHO suspects human-to-human transmission may have caused up to half a dozen previous clusters in recent years.
Mr Cordingley said there was no effective test to confirm human-to-human transmission.
"We've had very strong evidence of human-to-human transmission before, but in the end we haven't been able to draw any further conclusions, so we just don't know," he said.
Seven members of the same family in North Sumatra contracted the disease and six have died in the past three weeks.
An eighth family member, the first to become ill, died on May 4, but no samples were taken to confirm the cause of death.
Two of the men who died spent the night of April 29 in a small room with their mother - the first family member to fall ill - who was reportedly coughing frequently. A third son has the disease and is the sole surviving family member.
Another family member, a 32-year-old father, died on Monday after caring for his sick son.
Other infected family members lived in adjacent homes.
The H5N1 virus has killed 124 people since 2003 and more than 30 countries have reported outbreaks in poultry or wild birds.
The WHO has previously warned that clusters of the disease are considerably more dangerous than isolated infections because they raise the possibility that the virus might have mutated, allowing it to spread rapidly among humans, and sparking a pandemic that could kill millions of people.
However, Mr Cordingley said there was no evidence of spread within the general community with the latest cluster.
"Nobody outside the family shows any sign of infection, so we don't have a virus on the run," he said. "The virus samples from those who died shows the virus is not mutating and it shows no new ability to mutate from chickens to humans."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, April 22, 2006
Orion Gaia Needs Yo
Orion , Gaia Needs You !
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Deep background:
Gaia
Gaia is the shorthand for the feedback system whereby the living organisms on planet Earth maintain the planet’s temperature within livable ranges . The increasing insolation output from Sol ( up 25% over the last three billion years ) is pushing the adaptability envelope (Cf Lovelock).
The fibrillations in climate at the extremes of adaptation give rise to intelligence . Intelligence can thus be seen as an inevitable consequence of a main sequence star of Sol’s mass reaching a certain age . This has two interesting corollaries:
Orion
See excellent Wikkipedia summation . en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Orion
Deep background:
Any explosive reaction propulsion system is essentially like exploding a cracker in the middle of kettle . If you leave a hole in one end of the kettle , you have a rocket or a jet engine with thrust in the direction opposite to the hole . But Newton’s laws says that no matter how fancy your tricks , the force-components at ninety-degrees to the thrust direction cannot be used for propulsion .
Propulsion and lift .
Yet nearly all our present aircrafts’ propulsion is on the horizontal (propellers or jets) . The vertical lift is by air-pressure differentials on special surfaces (wings) .
Our problem is not a gravity-well . If it was not for the atmosphere , we could simply build a long rail-gun to get any desired mass into orbit .
1 . The Original Orion :
A buffered plate with energetic series of explosions under it (nuclear if necessary ) . All lift given by propulsion . Maximum possible efficiency 50% .
2. Orion Air-Lift
The explosion is above the plate .We do not contain the sides of the explosion . The shock-wave sweeps away the air above the plate . The air-pressure differential lifts the whole contraption .
We already know that we require far less force to get aero-dynamic lift than straight-up vertical propulsion . ( Go to any airport) .
This is essentially an inverted hovercraft . The difference is that the pressure is removed from the top of the plate in a series of pulsed explosions . Since the explosions need not be contained ( like in a jet engine) , conventional , shaped or nuclear explosives can be used . Anything with a bit of vooma .
The plate can be anything durable (concrete , granite ) . The lift is like a hovercraft : the larger the surface area , the better . 10 000 to 100 000 tons seems to be good estimates to put into orbit using conventional explosives like semtex . See tweaking .
Tweaking:
2.1 Put a hole in the center of the plate , with a cap on top . Vertical component of thrust is added .
2.2 Fresnel type effects are possible .
2.3 The contraption will have to start falling sideways at higher altitudes . Secondary shuttles can use it for orbital launch . The whole plate can go standard Orion or Railgun Orion to go into orbit .
Orion Rail-Cannon.
For those who need to zap an incoming asteroid , missiles , or in extremis , an incoming comet .
This is a purely destructive hypervelocity bullet that can be fired from the surface of the planet with little preparation necessary . A desperation tool .
Essentially , we have to drill a tunnel of vacuum in the atmosphere for our bullet , while erecting an electromagnetic-railgun to accellarate it to a reasonable fraction of lightspeed .
The method:
Have a plate with a hole in the center . Have a wire-tube of ionized air paths (laser guides from orbit or from plate ) .
Explode pulsed nukes below the hole in the plate .
The blast through the hole blows ionized air and ablatives through the laser ionized air-paths , inducing huge currents . The currents act as a linear rail-gun . It also blows a vacuum ahead of the plate .
Repeat the pulse .
What makes it cheap , easy and quick at present is that the nuclear pulse can be delivered from outside the tube (ie cruise missiles)
Ten square miles of Canadian shield rock 3000 feet deep can be converted into a pulse of plasma moving at about 0.1 c using about 100 cruise missiles . Of course , in such a case , the atmosphere ahead of the projectile will have to blown away as well .
Do not try this at home unless you have no choice !
It will make a really ,really loud bang ! The planet will go boing! . The night-sky will be like day .
Planetary temperatures will fall , due to small particulates degrading into the atmosphere . But this is only a short-term solution to increased Solar temperature .
A least-intervention solution is to gradually shift the Earth’s orbit outward . This is easily within present technology ( cf studies) . A series of asteroids or comets steered close to Luna when it is farthest from the sun will tug the Earth-Luna system into a wider orbit using only gravitational forces . (Jupiter has already done this) Mining the Sun for energy will also quickly soak up the extra energy . All dependant on massive extra-Terra activity .
The singularity.
This is essentially a deus-ex-machina argument . Everybody (or a significant fraction ) will become like gods and fix all the problems . The teensy problem is that most humans of first-world countries are already like “gods” , in terms of previous civilizations . They fly , see distantly , hear the dead , kill at the touch of a button , etc, etc . Extrapolate this forward . The hope is that there is a phase change . But the only phase change we know of on a reliable basis is Death .
But death is not what it used to be . In SF you have personality downloads . If your collection of photos and textmemories cobbled together by a AI passes the Turing test , is the person dead ? Half dead ? 80% dead ?
Can you see the problem ?
We thought there would be neat division : an event horizon . But in real life , the dead hang around long after they should have decently buggered off . And the more they are with us , the more we need to be purged . Their dead hands hang around in photos , patents , trademarks , statues ,plays , music ,novels , until a violent convulsion is needed to get rid of the past .
Weltschmertz while looking at old photographs should be firmly stamped on .
This is why Napoleon was known as the Great Disturber .
This convulsion is usually given the name of a revolution , or singularity .
So the singularity is always with us , but only more so if you are dead .
Hah! My quote!
A suitable revenge is to remember only the good parts .
Andre
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Deep background:
Gaia
Gaia is the shorthand for the feedback system whereby the living organisms on planet Earth maintain the planet’s temperature within livable ranges . The increasing insolation output from Sol ( up 25% over the last three billion years ) is pushing the adaptability envelope (Cf Lovelock).
The fibrillations in climate at the extremes of adaptation give rise to intelligence . Intelligence can thus be seen as an inevitable consequence of a main sequence star of Sol’s mass reaching a certain age . This has two interesting corollaries:
- Putative civilizations in the local stellar group will be of about the same level .
- Intelligence can be seen as another way in which the feedback mechanism operates . Humans will have to manage the planet more pro-actively to ensure their own survival . This enevitably means the survival of the ecosphere . Shading the planet , moving off-planet to habitats , terraforming Mars, Venus et al , or colonizing other solar systems are ways of doing this .
- Exclusion ! The one response guaranteed to lead to extinction is “Business as usual” . The planetary system is nearing the limits of it’s adaptive capability . The evolution of intelligence is a symptom of this . Supra-planetary intervention is needed .
- For that , the ability to use and get large masses ( ie in the millions of tons ) into orbit is necessary .
Orion
See excellent Wikkipedia summation . en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Orion
Deep background:
Any explosive reaction propulsion system is essentially like exploding a cracker in the middle of kettle . If you leave a hole in one end of the kettle , you have a rocket or a jet engine with thrust in the direction opposite to the hole . But Newton’s laws says that no matter how fancy your tricks , the force-components at ninety-degrees to the thrust direction cannot be used for propulsion .
Propulsion and lift .
Yet nearly all our present aircrafts’ propulsion is on the horizontal (propellers or jets) . The vertical lift is by air-pressure differentials on special surfaces (wings) .
Our problem is not a gravity-well . If it was not for the atmosphere , we could simply build a long rail-gun to get any desired mass into orbit .
1 . The Original Orion :
A buffered plate with energetic series of explosions under it (nuclear if necessary ) . All lift given by propulsion . Maximum possible efficiency 50% .
2. Orion Air-Lift
The explosion is above the plate .We do not contain the sides of the explosion . The shock-wave sweeps away the air above the plate . The air-pressure differential lifts the whole contraption .
We already know that we require far less force to get aero-dynamic lift than straight-up vertical propulsion . ( Go to any airport) .
This is essentially an inverted hovercraft . The difference is that the pressure is removed from the top of the plate in a series of pulsed explosions . Since the explosions need not be contained ( like in a jet engine) , conventional , shaped or nuclear explosives can be used . Anything with a bit of vooma .
The plate can be anything durable (concrete , granite ) . The lift is like a hovercraft : the larger the surface area , the better . 10 000 to 100 000 tons seems to be good estimates to put into orbit using conventional explosives like semtex . See tweaking .
Tweaking:
2.1 Put a hole in the center of the plate , with a cap on top . Vertical component of thrust is added .
2.2 Fresnel type effects are possible .
2.3 The contraption will have to start falling sideways at higher altitudes . Secondary shuttles can use it for orbital launch . The whole plate can go standard Orion or Railgun Orion to go into orbit .
Orion Rail-Cannon.
For those who need to zap an incoming asteroid , missiles , or in extremis , an incoming comet .
This is a purely destructive hypervelocity bullet that can be fired from the surface of the planet with little preparation necessary . A desperation tool .
Essentially , we have to drill a tunnel of vacuum in the atmosphere for our bullet , while erecting an electromagnetic-railgun to accellarate it to a reasonable fraction of lightspeed .
The method:
Have a plate with a hole in the center . Have a wire-tube of ionized air paths (laser guides from orbit or from plate ) .
Explode pulsed nukes below the hole in the plate .
The blast through the hole blows ionized air and ablatives through the laser ionized air-paths , inducing huge currents . The currents act as a linear rail-gun . It also blows a vacuum ahead of the plate .
Repeat the pulse .
What makes it cheap , easy and quick at present is that the nuclear pulse can be delivered from outside the tube (ie cruise missiles)
Ten square miles of Canadian shield rock 3000 feet deep can be converted into a pulse of plasma moving at about 0.1 c using about 100 cruise missiles . Of course , in such a case , the atmosphere ahead of the projectile will have to blown away as well .
Do not try this at home unless you have no choice !
It will make a really ,really loud bang ! The planet will go boing! . The night-sky will be like day .
Planetary temperatures will fall , due to small particulates degrading into the atmosphere . But this is only a short-term solution to increased Solar temperature .
A least-intervention solution is to gradually shift the Earth’s orbit outward . This is easily within present technology ( cf studies) . A series of asteroids or comets steered close to Luna when it is farthest from the sun will tug the Earth-Luna system into a wider orbit using only gravitational forces . (Jupiter has already done this) Mining the Sun for energy will also quickly soak up the extra energy . All dependant on massive extra-Terra activity .
The singularity.
This is essentially a deus-ex-machina argument . Everybody (or a significant fraction ) will become like gods and fix all the problems . The teensy problem is that most humans of first-world countries are already like “gods” , in terms of previous civilizations . They fly , see distantly , hear the dead , kill at the touch of a button , etc, etc . Extrapolate this forward . The hope is that there is a phase change . But the only phase change we know of on a reliable basis is Death .
But death is not what it used to be . In SF you have personality downloads . If your collection of photos and textmemories cobbled together by a AI passes the Turing test , is the person dead ? Half dead ? 80% dead ?
Can you see the problem ?
We thought there would be neat division : an event horizon . But in real life , the dead hang around long after they should have decently buggered off . And the more they are with us , the more we need to be purged . Their dead hands hang around in photos , patents , trademarks , statues ,plays , music ,novels , until a violent convulsion is needed to get rid of the past .
Weltschmertz while looking at old photographs should be firmly stamped on .
This is why Napoleon was known as the Great Disturber .
This convulsion is usually given the name of a revolution , or singularity .
So the singularity is always with us , but only more so if you are dead .
Hah! My quote!
A suitable revenge is to remember only the good parts .
Andre
Thursday, March 30, 2006
Training the Immune
Training the Immune System.
The immune system is capable of handling most diseases , but is primarily reactive . The initiative is with diseases causing rapid changes in the targeting markers . Two new powerful techniques , which works very well in synergy , have emerged :
Method :
1. Isolate some disease causing cells (ie cancerous cells , HIV , etc)
2.Slow the activity in the cells , thereby halting cell-wall changes , by using H2S concentrations graduated from (say) 75 ppm to 80 ppm.
3. Kill the cells using hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) .
Rationale :
1. The effect of H2S is well documented .
It slows the metabolism of the whole cell , including the cell-wall .
2. The effect of hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) :
Refer to
Cancer Immunology and Immunotherapy , Do1:10.007/s00262-006-0127—9
Or
New Scientist of 4 March 2006 p17 .
Cancer cells killed by hypochlorous acid (HOCl) ( bleach ) is five times more likely to be recognized as malign by dendritic cells than those killed by other means . This is an experimental fact .
The reason seems to be that one of the main methods by which the immune systems
kills deviant cells is by an injection of hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) . The fragments of hypochlorous acid mark the fragments of target cells as enemies to the immune system .
It is interesting to note that this seems to indicate a rapidly changing cell-wall structure for cancer cells , as there is a enemy-recognition , but not a very big one . This suggests the changeable cell-wall frozen at the moment of death does not encompass a large variety of the surface-configurations the cell can assume .
Hence we suggest a H2S concentration gradient up to stasis level to halt the various cell-wall permutations at various configurations at the moment of the hypochlorous acid kill . This should increase the immune system’s enemy recognition percentage .
The question remains why would the technique be more effective with H2S than without it ?
The answer is that these intractable diseases , by definition , has evolved anti-attack mechanisms . One of these would certainly involve rapid change in the surfaces of the cells . The cells in the treatment sample would quickly diverge from the body’s system . The body’s system would change slower because of signaling molecules (refer to quorum effect ) .
Thus , by immediately slowing the treatment sample by a graduated H2S concentration , killing it and immediately re-injecting , the immune system gains recognition of the enemy and hopefully some degree of advance on it .
The suspicion arises that a very simple molecule like HOCl is like other similarly simple molecules (nitrogen oxides , CO2 , etc that are used by living organisms as powerful signalling molecules .
HOCl kills any cell we know of . The only defense seems to be a thick shield . Is this wholly due to it’s reactive nature , or is there also a receptor site for it ? Immune cells kill by injecting it through a synapse-like structure . Thus , the targeting mechanism and the lethal payload share a linkage . This structure can learn through evolution .
Evolutionary speaking , the immune system will first try to kill by apoptosis as this is more economical . If this fails , then it will try to kill the cell by HOCl injection . If this fails and the system is still under stress , the chances are that it is a disease that is changing cell-walls quicker than the matching changes in the synapse-like immune cells mechanism .
The immune system will evolve two strategies :
First , try to decrease the change-speed in the attacking organism (first because this is older in evolutionary terms .)
Then , increase the learning speed of the immune system . Can you see where this is heading ?
Strategy 1 . Decrease in the change-speed in the attacking organism (whether internal like cancer or external like flu ) is handled by H2S type mechanisms . Hence the importance of sulfur ( see my previous notes ).
Strategy 2 . Increase the immune system’s learning speed.
Erk. This is a bit humbling .
On a basic level , Iodine seems to fill the requisite niche for a simple thing that has profound effects on the immune system , and thus on the nervous system .
The mechanism controlling the long-term , planet-wide distribution of sulfur and iodine is the algal organisms in the upper levels of the oceans . These are very temperature-dependant .
As the planetary temperature rises , the average concentration of sulfur and iodine falls because the algae retreat to the poles . Diseases increase . The immune systems first try the H2S route (because this is older ) , then try increasing the learning speed . We see this as intelligence .
Thus , we can see the pulse of intelligence in human affairs after the end of the last ice-age as a direct result of the increase in diseases caused by the decrease in sulfur and iodine concentrations .
An example: It is generally thought that the increased fishing off African waters caused the Africans to eat more bush-meat , thereby increasing their exposure to exotic diseases . But they have been eating the same for thousands of years . The critical lack is iodine
To sum up , human increased intelligence can be seen as an immune-system response to periods of warm inter-glacials . Since there is small evolutionary pressure to decrease intelligence , the effect ratcheted up . At present , humans can be seen as part of the planetary response to the relentless warming of the sun .
In other words , a planet like Earth which started off slightly too cool about 3 billion years ago , reached ideal life-temperature about 2 billion years ago and has gradually heated up as the sun became hotter (it is now 25% hotter than 3 billion years ago) .
The life-systems on the planet formed a complex feedback system which kept the system at livable temperatures . (Cf Daisyworld , Gaia and similar models) .
It is important to realize that the insolation from the sun fluctuated . The higher influx from sol left less leeway on the upper end of the boundary for living organisms on earth . A bit hotter , and living things did not as well with as a bit cooler .
So , as the sun became hotter , the earth’s thermostat evolved to be cooler (to leave room for fluctuations on the hot side). Please note that no conscious agency is necessary . Living learning mechanisms like discussed above evolved and became more intelligent with each heat-burp .
Till eventually , we get the present situation . Humans will have to cool the planet or become extinct . This can be seen to be (nearly) inevitable from the first planetary configuration . Another way of looking at it that humans are a part of the life systems on the planet ensuring its continuation .
Humans are a result of the heating of the planet , not the cause .
Intelligence is inevitable on any planet around a star on the main sequence .
Andre
The immune system is capable of handling most diseases , but is primarily reactive . The initiative is with diseases causing rapid changes in the targeting markers . Two new powerful techniques , which works very well in synergy , have emerged :
Method :
1. Isolate some disease causing cells (ie cancerous cells , HIV , etc)
2.Slow the activity in the cells , thereby halting cell-wall changes , by using H2S concentrations graduated from (say) 75 ppm to 80 ppm.
3. Kill the cells using hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) .
- Inject the lot back into the organism .
- Repeat quickly.
Rationale :
1. The effect of H2S is well documented .
It slows the metabolism of the whole cell , including the cell-wall .
2. The effect of hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) :
Refer to
Cancer Immunology and Immunotherapy , Do1:10.007/s00262-006-0127—9
Or
New Scientist of 4 March 2006 p17 .
Cancer cells killed by hypochlorous acid (HOCl) ( bleach ) is five times more likely to be recognized as malign by dendritic cells than those killed by other means . This is an experimental fact .
The reason seems to be that one of the main methods by which the immune systems
kills deviant cells is by an injection of hypochlorous acid ( bleach ) . The fragments of hypochlorous acid mark the fragments of target cells as enemies to the immune system .
It is interesting to note that this seems to indicate a rapidly changing cell-wall structure for cancer cells , as there is a enemy-recognition , but not a very big one . This suggests the changeable cell-wall frozen at the moment of death does not encompass a large variety of the surface-configurations the cell can assume .
Hence we suggest a H2S concentration gradient up to stasis level to halt the various cell-wall permutations at various configurations at the moment of the hypochlorous acid kill . This should increase the immune system’s enemy recognition percentage .
The question remains why would the technique be more effective with H2S than without it ?
The answer is that these intractable diseases , by definition , has evolved anti-attack mechanisms . One of these would certainly involve rapid change in the surfaces of the cells . The cells in the treatment sample would quickly diverge from the body’s system . The body’s system would change slower because of signaling molecules (refer to quorum effect ) .
Thus , by immediately slowing the treatment sample by a graduated H2S concentration , killing it and immediately re-injecting , the immune system gains recognition of the enemy and hopefully some degree of advance on it .
The suspicion arises that a very simple molecule like HOCl is like other similarly simple molecules (nitrogen oxides , CO2 , etc that are used by living organisms as powerful signalling molecules .
HOCl kills any cell we know of . The only defense seems to be a thick shield . Is this wholly due to it’s reactive nature , or is there also a receptor site for it ? Immune cells kill by injecting it through a synapse-like structure . Thus , the targeting mechanism and the lethal payload share a linkage . This structure can learn through evolution .
Evolutionary speaking , the immune system will first try to kill by apoptosis as this is more economical . If this fails , then it will try to kill the cell by HOCl injection . If this fails and the system is still under stress , the chances are that it is a disease that is changing cell-walls quicker than the matching changes in the synapse-like immune cells mechanism .
The immune system will evolve two strategies :
First , try to decrease the change-speed in the attacking organism (first because this is older in evolutionary terms .)
Then , increase the learning speed of the immune system . Can you see where this is heading ?
Strategy 1 . Decrease in the change-speed in the attacking organism (whether internal like cancer or external like flu ) is handled by H2S type mechanisms . Hence the importance of sulfur ( see my previous notes ).
Strategy 2 . Increase the immune system’s learning speed.
Erk. This is a bit humbling .
On a basic level , Iodine seems to fill the requisite niche for a simple thing that has profound effects on the immune system , and thus on the nervous system .
The mechanism controlling the long-term , planet-wide distribution of sulfur and iodine is the algal organisms in the upper levels of the oceans . These are very temperature-dependant .
As the planetary temperature rises , the average concentration of sulfur and iodine falls because the algae retreat to the poles . Diseases increase . The immune systems first try the H2S route (because this is older ) , then try increasing the learning speed . We see this as intelligence .
Thus , we can see the pulse of intelligence in human affairs after the end of the last ice-age as a direct result of the increase in diseases caused by the decrease in sulfur and iodine concentrations .
An example: It is generally thought that the increased fishing off African waters caused the Africans to eat more bush-meat , thereby increasing their exposure to exotic diseases . But they have been eating the same for thousands of years . The critical lack is iodine
To sum up , human increased intelligence can be seen as an immune-system response to periods of warm inter-glacials . Since there is small evolutionary pressure to decrease intelligence , the effect ratcheted up . At present , humans can be seen as part of the planetary response to the relentless warming of the sun .
In other words , a planet like Earth which started off slightly too cool about 3 billion years ago , reached ideal life-temperature about 2 billion years ago and has gradually heated up as the sun became hotter (it is now 25% hotter than 3 billion years ago) .
The life-systems on the planet formed a complex feedback system which kept the system at livable temperatures . (Cf Daisyworld , Gaia and similar models) .
It is important to realize that the insolation from the sun fluctuated . The higher influx from sol left less leeway on the upper end of the boundary for living organisms on earth . A bit hotter , and living things did not as well with as a bit cooler .
So , as the sun became hotter , the earth’s thermostat evolved to be cooler (to leave room for fluctuations on the hot side). Please note that no conscious agency is necessary . Living learning mechanisms like discussed above evolved and became more intelligent with each heat-burp .
Till eventually , we get the present situation . Humans will have to cool the planet or become extinct . This can be seen to be (nearly) inevitable from the first planetary configuration . Another way of looking at it that humans are a part of the life systems on the planet ensuring its continuation .
Humans are a result of the heating of the planet , not the cause .
Intelligence is inevitable on any planet around a star on the main sequence .
Andre
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
Mouse Rage Road Rage
Mouse Rage , Road Rage , Divorce and the Amygdala
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Have you ever flared with visceral fury at a sticky mouse ?
The sequence of events is interesting :
What is similar between driving a mouse and a car ?
The visual system is very alert , but body-mind is in a mild obsessive-compulsive behaviour state ( lower serotonin and elevated dopamine ) . Eg , feeling relaxed while concentrating .
Why the flare ?
This relaxed , concentrating and visually alert mental state is found in mammals usually when the response to perceived threat is not fight-or-flight , but fight only .
Some situations:
1. Post-coital (as discussed before) (Protect your genes!)
2. While eating . (Protect your food!)
3. While or after feeding cubs. (Protect your genes!)
This was hard-wired in during mammalian evolutionary history .
The Amygdala.
This brain organ is hardwired for threats to food and genes , and also learns threats for which immediate response is required . (The panic button).
Its forte is immediate response , bypassing any smarter but slower data processing .
It’s drawback is that it learns wrong responses to things which are not a threat .
Fast and twitchy beats slow but sure in the survival game.
The Amygdala is not smart or complicated , but fast . And it learns very , very quickly ( even once can be enough in a traumatic episode )
So , hardwired in is the mental state :
( VisuallyAlert + low serotonin + high dopamine ) + Threat ( Aggressive Attack
Every repetition of the threat reinforces this response , especially if the repetitions fall within the nervous system’s long-term potentiation thresholds ( 5 – 10 mins ) .
Eg , in corporal punishment , there was usually waiting period of 5 mins between lashes : not sadism , but pragmatic learning in action .
A problem is that other things associated with the primary stimulus get learned as well . Things unrelated to any threat can trigger the response .
This brings us back to road / mouse rage .
The mental state :
( VisuallyAlert + low serotonin + high dopamine ) + Threat ( Aggressive Attack
gets reinforced with every repetition . The amygdala gets sensitized to this process . You might be exposed to one or two road-rage stimuli a week , but a sticky mouse happens often inside the 10 min threshold . The system gets more and more sensitized.
Interruptions of the ( VisuallyAlert + low serotonin + high dopamine ) state starts getting treated as threats .
An example is hubby relaxing , watching TV after dinner , and wife interrupts . He snaps aggressively at her , without knowing why . The situation escalates from there to the divorce court .
Associated items get learned as threats just as well as the primary threat . One of the reasons for the extreme bitterness of divorces : each partner triggers extreme threat and anxiety responses in each other . They don’t know why , so they rationalize ,
(Anxiety attacks can be seen as such an associational threat. )
Victims of a security system run amuck .
Reprogramming the Amygdala.
As can be seen from the above , the sensitization grows greater with age . The man might try a new wife , but the same problems surface in different guises . Learned helplessness becomes more prevalent and the system tends to paranoic catatonia . Anything new but with vaguely similar elements to previous threats triggers a threat response .
(Interestingly , this might be why the immune system forgets . Some auto-immune diseases might be due to an inability to forget . Maybe some of the techniques below might help . I refer you to the close similarity between immune-cell interactions and synapses .)
The amygdala needs to unlearn some tricks and desensitize on others . You don’t want to do without cops , but you only want the ones which are not trigger happy .
Will-power
This does not work , as the amygdale operates through bypassing all the slow smart feedback processes .
Un-learning and re-learning.
We have the luxury here of two experimental facts that shows that reprogramming the amygdala is possible :
1.Virtual-reality (primarily visual) cures of phobias ( fear of snakes , heights,etc .) has taken place . So a purely visual input has an effect . This is to be expected from the “VisuallyAlert” component in the original mental state .
2. Direct chemical intervention in the long-term memories .
Re-potentialization
It has been found experimentally that long-term memories in neurons can be repotentialized by presenting the original stimulus . This is to be expected from an evolutionary viewpoint if the organism is past the infantile (neural-pruning) stage .
Use of chemicals like some of the beta-blockers then erases the long-term memory .
Of interest here is that one of the main problems with amygdala-induced anxieties is that the same chemical messengers is used in the inter-brain communication as in the brain-body communications . This means that a threat response in the amygdala is mirrored in the body , and then feeds back to the amygdala . This is then again fed back into the body : the result is an anxiety attack and/or shock . The beta-blocker was originally developed to break the loop in the body , but it seems that it works by erasing the long-term memory .
There is one teeny problem here : a neuron carrying no memory or a duplicate memory will probably be marked for apoptosis . We do not want this . So the therapy should include a simultaneous long-term memory re-learning process . This should also rejuvenate the hippocampus .
What can we do now?
All this sounds like it will take a big lab , lots of white coats and meetings , government approval before some emasculated version might crawl out and cheep at the universe .
Luckily , we already know one easily duplicated stimulus : mouse rage .
We can design a program to do this and be fun too.
Boredom will be a problem , so we use a 3x3 tic-tac-toe grid to soak up the brain’s pattern recognition and counting mechanisms .
The brain’s basic numerical processor can only count to 3 (to be more precise , it can handle < , = , > ) . The pattern recognition is much more complex , but we want to combine the two .
Basically , it is a Sudoku type grid, but each of the 3x3 elements are spread through time , instead of through space .
We only need pattern recognition , so we only need the traditional “ x” and “o” .
The algorithm:
Any suggestions?
Andre
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Have you ever flared with visceral fury at a sticky mouse ?
The sequence of events is interesting :
- A mental discontinuity , as the consciousness is bypassed for immediate threat countering . (the flare)
- A hormonal flood (the visceral fury bit).
- A closely following (milliseconds) override as the threat is assessed and dismissed.
- A gradual relaxation of body-mind systems if the stimulus does not recur soon
- If it recurs soon (ie about 5-10 minutes) , within the long-term potentiating learning period , the amygdale learns more and more that this is a threat . The reaction becomes stronger and more widespread with every learning repetition.
What is similar between driving a mouse and a car ?
The visual system is very alert , but body-mind is in a mild obsessive-compulsive behaviour state ( lower serotonin and elevated dopamine ) . Eg , feeling relaxed while concentrating .
Why the flare ?
This relaxed , concentrating and visually alert mental state is found in mammals usually when the response to perceived threat is not fight-or-flight , but fight only .
Some situations:
1. Post-coital (as discussed before) (Protect your genes!)
2. While eating . (Protect your food!)
3. While or after feeding cubs. (Protect your genes!)
This was hard-wired in during mammalian evolutionary history .
The Amygdala.
This brain organ is hardwired for threats to food and genes , and also learns threats for which immediate response is required . (The panic button).
Its forte is immediate response , bypassing any smarter but slower data processing .
It’s drawback is that it learns wrong responses to things which are not a threat .
Fast and twitchy beats slow but sure in the survival game.
The Amygdala is not smart or complicated , but fast . And it learns very , very quickly ( even once can be enough in a traumatic episode )
So , hardwired in is the mental state :
( VisuallyAlert + low serotonin + high dopamine ) + Threat ( Aggressive Attack
Every repetition of the threat reinforces this response , especially if the repetitions fall within the nervous system’s long-term potentiation thresholds ( 5 – 10 mins ) .
Eg , in corporal punishment , there was usually waiting period of 5 mins between lashes : not sadism , but pragmatic learning in action .
A problem is that other things associated with the primary stimulus get learned as well . Things unrelated to any threat can trigger the response .
This brings us back to road / mouse rage .
The mental state :
( VisuallyAlert + low serotonin + high dopamine ) + Threat ( Aggressive Attack
gets reinforced with every repetition . The amygdala gets sensitized to this process . You might be exposed to one or two road-rage stimuli a week , but a sticky mouse happens often inside the 10 min threshold . The system gets more and more sensitized.
Interruptions of the ( VisuallyAlert + low serotonin + high dopamine ) state starts getting treated as threats .
An example is hubby relaxing , watching TV after dinner , and wife interrupts . He snaps aggressively at her , without knowing why . The situation escalates from there to the divorce court .
Associated items get learned as threats just as well as the primary threat . One of the reasons for the extreme bitterness of divorces : each partner triggers extreme threat and anxiety responses in each other . They don’t know why , so they rationalize ,
(Anxiety attacks can be seen as such an associational threat. )
Victims of a security system run amuck .
Reprogramming the Amygdala.
As can be seen from the above , the sensitization grows greater with age . The man might try a new wife , but the same problems surface in different guises . Learned helplessness becomes more prevalent and the system tends to paranoic catatonia . Anything new but with vaguely similar elements to previous threats triggers a threat response .
(Interestingly , this might be why the immune system forgets . Some auto-immune diseases might be due to an inability to forget . Maybe some of the techniques below might help . I refer you to the close similarity between immune-cell interactions and synapses .)
The amygdala needs to unlearn some tricks and desensitize on others . You don’t want to do without cops , but you only want the ones which are not trigger happy .
Will-power
This does not work , as the amygdale operates through bypassing all the slow smart feedback processes .
Un-learning and re-learning.
We have the luxury here of two experimental facts that shows that reprogramming the amygdala is possible :
1.Virtual-reality (primarily visual) cures of phobias ( fear of snakes , heights,etc .) has taken place . So a purely visual input has an effect . This is to be expected from the “VisuallyAlert” component in the original mental state .
2. Direct chemical intervention in the long-term memories .
Re-potentialization
It has been found experimentally that long-term memories in neurons can be repotentialized by presenting the original stimulus . This is to be expected from an evolutionary viewpoint if the organism is past the infantile (neural-pruning) stage .
Use of chemicals like some of the beta-blockers then erases the long-term memory .
Of interest here is that one of the main problems with amygdala-induced anxieties is that the same chemical messengers is used in the inter-brain communication as in the brain-body communications . This means that a threat response in the amygdala is mirrored in the body , and then feeds back to the amygdala . This is then again fed back into the body : the result is an anxiety attack and/or shock . The beta-blocker was originally developed to break the loop in the body , but it seems that it works by erasing the long-term memory .
There is one teeny problem here : a neuron carrying no memory or a duplicate memory will probably be marked for apoptosis . We do not want this . So the therapy should include a simultaneous long-term memory re-learning process . This should also rejuvenate the hippocampus .
What can we do now?
All this sounds like it will take a big lab , lots of white coats and meetings , government approval before some emasculated version might crawl out and cheep at the universe .
Luckily , we already know one easily duplicated stimulus : mouse rage .
We can design a program to do this and be fun too.
Boredom will be a problem , so we use a 3x3 tic-tac-toe grid to soak up the brain’s pattern recognition and counting mechanisms .
The brain’s basic numerical processor can only count to 3 (to be more precise , it can handle < , = , > ) . The pattern recognition is much more complex , but we want to combine the two .
Basically , it is a Sudoku type grid, but each of the 3x3 elements are spread through time , instead of through space .
We only need pattern recognition , so we only need the traditional “ x” and “o” .
The algorithm:
- Create a tic-tac-toe that is not a solution (ie no horizontal,vertical or crisscross pattern) . For evolutionary reasons , humans are much more adept at picking out interrupted patterns . And that does not get simpler than xxo .
- Move the cursor to the nearest x or o that breaks the pattern (the Y square). As it gets near , freeze the cursor and only resume movement if the mouse is moved over it’s little square again . This is the stutter . Don’t worry if it does not cause a rage flare . We are not trying to reinforce the mechanism , but reprogram it at subliminal level . Mark the target square element programmatically
- Immediately after the stutter ,
- Move every element in the tic-tac-toe one right and one down in wrap-around .
- Test if it is solution , If not , loop to 4
- If it is no solution , try to click on what you think is the Y-square within 30 seconds .
- If it is correct , count one CorrectY , else count CorrectN .
- Loop to 4 until 6 minutes have passed .
- Show score and count set .
- Loop to 1
- Proceed until Halt
- Show scores and sets as a time sequence .
Any suggestions?
Andre
Sunday, March 26, 2006
The revenge of Gaia
The revenge of Gaia .
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
The revenge of Gaia
A book by James Lovelock ( ISBN 13:978-0-713-99914-3 )
This a good summary and call to arms .
He argues that an extreme sense of urgency for remedial steps is necessary , as a major discontinuity ( or tipping point ) looms in about 30 to 40 years at present projected rates of global warming . The Global temperature would rise by about 3 degrees within this time , then suddenly suddenly rise within a year or two by about 8 degrees Celsius after this threshold is reached .
This is the Algal die-off tipping point .
If the global temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius (ie a total 500 ppm CO2 concentration) global warming causing the rapid extinction of most algae in surface temperate and tropical oceans will result . This would cause a decrease in CO2 downdrawal and decrease in cloud-cover due to lack of DMS condensation nuclei for droplets . The combined effect bounces the global temperature up by at least 8 degrees in a very short time .
Other lesser positive feedback warming effects which are already operative :
1 . Melting of Siberian and Canadian permafrost is releasing large volumes of trapped methane and CO2 . ( Methane is 24 times more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2 ) . Large peat fires is to be expected as dry-out progresses , releasing even more CO2 .
Negative feedback factors:
What does this mean for humans?
The Business as usual scenario:
For about 20 years , things will get slowly worse . More extreme hurricanes , droughts , floods etc . Famines , water-famines and increasing oxygen-famines cause large-scale environmental refugees . Resource wars and genocidal wars increase in frequency and intensity .
The present resource-rich nations withdraw core-survivors to highland areas in the arctic and Antarctic regions . (Notice present fortifications in Urals and bio-banks in Norway and Sweden) The sea-level rises within a decade by at least 7 m as the Greenland ice melts at around 2050 . Antarctic melts are uncertain , but it would be prudent to relocate at least 200 m above present sea-levels .
All regions between Canada-NorthernEuropeSiberia and TierreDelFuega-NewZealand-Antartica become uninhabitable ( or at best , like the sub-sahel at present) . The Hadley-cells in the atmosphere broaden and shift the trade-wind further to the poles . Huge storms , hurricanes , floods , tornadoes . The risen sea-levels means huge expanses of shallow seas over Western-Europe , Eastern-US , Amazon , with concommittant heating fuelling the storms .
The cooling caused by the cessation of the Gulf-stream on Western-Europe will be initially offset by the global warming ( the estimated effects cancel out : -8 by +8 degrees , but the rising sea-levels will drown most of the West-European plains (return to Tethys Sea) . The shallow seas trap heat and generate unbelievable storms .
The inevitable volcanism caused by the shifting tectonic stresses of lifting ice-masses will cause a short-term cooling , but even bigger storms . Super-volcanoes? Can anybody survive the energy fluctuations ?
Human intervention .
All this seems very pessimistic . Unless something drastic is done , it seems all too possible that no one will survive . Business as usual is not sufficient . Extinction is not only a real possibility , but a high probability .
Essentially , humans will have to increasingly manage the planet . Services supplied free and without conscious thought by the planet (call it Gaia ) ( like breathable air , potable water , edible food , safe domiciles , anti-boredom) , will have to be done by humans if they want to avoid extinction .
The Morality.
Humans have enormous power at the moment . They can easily control the problems of the planet . They have the technology and a lot of the necessary knowledge .
What they lack is a moral basis to mobilize it all .
There is a curious paralysis of the will .
They ask themselves :
“Is it the right thing to do?”
They are quite willing to sacrifice themselves if they are convinced it is the right thing to do (history is full of this) .
But they ask themselves:
Shall we loose a human disease on all the Universe ?
Will humans be like a plague ? At the moment they are contained on one planet . They think they have nearly destroyed their biosphere . Is it moral to release uncontrolled positive feedback forces ?
This is a very general way of looking at it:
The key here is variety and transformation .
Large numbers lead to variety . Variety lead to both conflict and co-operation .
Conflict and co-operation are fractal in combination . Elements have conflicts between boundaries of co-operation , and these boundaries are in turn the elements of conflicts between bigger boundaries of co-operation , and so forth .
This gives sufficient scope for transformation .
Essentially , this means that any sufficiently large number of elements is bounded : Competitive elements are bounded by co-operative boundaries , and co-operative boundary-elements are bounded by competitive boundaries . And so forth .
It means you can screw up big time , but you can’t destroy the universe .
Conversely , inaction in a complex situation spinning out of control is the worst possible response .
The moral thing for our society is to intervene .
That perennial problem “ Does the end justifies the means ? “ can be shown to be bounded .
You can try to analyze the effects of any decision in its competition environment until its co-operation boundary , then on all co-operation boundaries , then on all competition environments after that , etc . You will very rapidly reach reach a fuzzy boundary . Like a chaotic system into the future .
An example is climate . Climate and competitive humans is predictable (it is , after all , what we did above with global warming) . However , if co-operative humans are added , the end-result is unpredictable .You cannot say “this end justifies the means” , but only that “my striving towards these possible ends justifies some of these means “.
It is my considered opinion that the right thing to do is not to limit human numbers .
This translates into :
1.No artificial plagues .
2.Release energy technology .
3. Use present technology to the utmost , but in all areas .
Humans will have to manage the planet.
This means building up knowledge of how ecology works . Actively regulating the energy inflow to the planet , as well as the outflow .
These things Mother Earth used to do for us for free . But we’re slowly growing up . Time to stand on our own feet .
For instance , managing the energy inflow to the planet is trivial . Numerous umbrella-type plans are available . All require large masses in orbit , which can be done (and will be if things get bad ) by Orion type thrusters .
There is sufficient variety on the planet at the moment to make it inevitable .
It sounds like a lot of work , but there are a lot of hands . The terran biosphere , excluding humans , can be very closely approximated . If humans are included , decent first and second order approximations can be made .
Humans can run their biosphere .
Andre
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
The revenge of Gaia
A book by James Lovelock ( ISBN 13:978-0-713-99914-3 )
This a good summary and call to arms .
He argues that an extreme sense of urgency for remedial steps is necessary , as a major discontinuity ( or tipping point ) looms in about 30 to 40 years at present projected rates of global warming . The Global temperature would rise by about 3 degrees within this time , then suddenly suddenly rise within a year or two by about 8 degrees Celsius after this threshold is reached .
This is the Algal die-off tipping point .
If the global temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius (ie a total 500 ppm CO2 concentration) global warming causing the rapid extinction of most algae in surface temperate and tropical oceans will result . This would cause a decrease in CO2 downdrawal and decrease in cloud-cover due to lack of DMS condensation nuclei for droplets . The combined effect bounces the global temperature up by at least 8 degrees in a very short time .
Other lesser positive feedback warming effects which are already operative :
1 . Melting of Siberian and Canadian permafrost is releasing large volumes of trapped methane and CO2 . ( Methane is 24 times more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2 ) . Large peat fires is to be expected as dry-out progresses , releasing even more CO2 .
- Melting of Arctic ice is reducing reflection of light , raising temperatures in arctic regions .
- Melting of glaciers . Less flow-off during summer leads to less vegetation and more warming .
- A temperature rise of 4 degrees will see the vanishing of all tropical forests ( The why is tied to the evaporation rate . Even present temperature rises are enough to cause dry-offs in marginal areas , leading to very large fires in the Amazon , Indonesia , Malaysia.) Human exploitation exacerbates this effect .
- The slowing-down of the Gulf-Stream due to the large-scale influx of fresh water from the melting of the arctic and Greenland ice masses . Actually , the whole planetary ocean current system is affected , but nobody knows to what effect .
- Solar dimming effect ( due to solar reflection by sulfur pollution aerosols ) decreases . The effect can be very pronounced : apparently , the week-long banning of all flights over the USA after 9/11 caused a whopping 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature over the north American continent .
- Human activities .
- Rising ocean levels and extreme wheather is killing vegetation , the rotting of which releases their carbon content as methane or CO2 .
Negative feedback factors:
- Large scale volcanism : rapid melting of large volumes of ice will destabilize the tectonic balance , especially in the North Atlantic and North Pacific .
- Lowering of oxygen concentration due to alagal die-off .
What does this mean for humans?
The Business as usual scenario:
For about 20 years , things will get slowly worse . More extreme hurricanes , droughts , floods etc . Famines , water-famines and increasing oxygen-famines cause large-scale environmental refugees . Resource wars and genocidal wars increase in frequency and intensity .
The present resource-rich nations withdraw core-survivors to highland areas in the arctic and Antarctic regions . (Notice present fortifications in Urals and bio-banks in Norway and Sweden) The sea-level rises within a decade by at least 7 m as the Greenland ice melts at around 2050 . Antarctic melts are uncertain , but it would be prudent to relocate at least 200 m above present sea-levels .
All regions between Canada-NorthernEuropeSiberia and TierreDelFuega-NewZealand-Antartica become uninhabitable ( or at best , like the sub-sahel at present) . The Hadley-cells in the atmosphere broaden and shift the trade-wind further to the poles . Huge storms , hurricanes , floods , tornadoes . The risen sea-levels means huge expanses of shallow seas over Western-Europe , Eastern-US , Amazon , with concommittant heating fuelling the storms .
The cooling caused by the cessation of the Gulf-stream on Western-Europe will be initially offset by the global warming ( the estimated effects cancel out : -8 by +8 degrees , but the rising sea-levels will drown most of the West-European plains (return to Tethys Sea) . The shallow seas trap heat and generate unbelievable storms .
The inevitable volcanism caused by the shifting tectonic stresses of lifting ice-masses will cause a short-term cooling , but even bigger storms . Super-volcanoes? Can anybody survive the energy fluctuations ?
Human intervention .
All this seems very pessimistic . Unless something drastic is done , it seems all too possible that no one will survive . Business as usual is not sufficient . Extinction is not only a real possibility , but a high probability .
Essentially , humans will have to increasingly manage the planet . Services supplied free and without conscious thought by the planet (call it Gaia ) ( like breathable air , potable water , edible food , safe domiciles , anti-boredom) , will have to be done by humans if they want to avoid extinction .
The Morality.
Humans have enormous power at the moment . They can easily control the problems of the planet . They have the technology and a lot of the necessary knowledge .
What they lack is a moral basis to mobilize it all .
There is a curious paralysis of the will .
They ask themselves :
“Is it the right thing to do?”
They are quite willing to sacrifice themselves if they are convinced it is the right thing to do (history is full of this) .
But they ask themselves:
Shall we loose a human disease on all the Universe ?
Will humans be like a plague ? At the moment they are contained on one planet . They think they have nearly destroyed their biosphere . Is it moral to release uncontrolled positive feedback forces ?
This is a very general way of looking at it:
The key here is variety and transformation .
Large numbers lead to variety . Variety lead to both conflict and co-operation .
Conflict and co-operation are fractal in combination . Elements have conflicts between boundaries of co-operation , and these boundaries are in turn the elements of conflicts between bigger boundaries of co-operation , and so forth .
This gives sufficient scope for transformation .
Essentially , this means that any sufficiently large number of elements is bounded : Competitive elements are bounded by co-operative boundaries , and co-operative boundary-elements are bounded by competitive boundaries . And so forth .
It means you can screw up big time , but you can’t destroy the universe .
Conversely , inaction in a complex situation spinning out of control is the worst possible response .
The moral thing for our society is to intervene .
That perennial problem “ Does the end justifies the means ? “ can be shown to be bounded .
You can try to analyze the effects of any decision in its competition environment until its co-operation boundary , then on all co-operation boundaries , then on all competition environments after that , etc . You will very rapidly reach reach a fuzzy boundary . Like a chaotic system into the future .
An example is climate . Climate and competitive humans is predictable (it is , after all , what we did above with global warming) . However , if co-operative humans are added , the end-result is unpredictable .You cannot say “this end justifies the means” , but only that “my striving towards these possible ends justifies some of these means “.
It is my considered opinion that the right thing to do is not to limit human numbers .
This translates into :
1.No artificial plagues .
2.Release energy technology .
3. Use present technology to the utmost , but in all areas .
Humans will have to manage the planet.
This means building up knowledge of how ecology works . Actively regulating the energy inflow to the planet , as well as the outflow .
These things Mother Earth used to do for us for free . But we’re slowly growing up . Time to stand on our own feet .
For instance , managing the energy inflow to the planet is trivial . Numerous umbrella-type plans are available . All require large masses in orbit , which can be done (and will be if things get bad ) by Orion type thrusters .
There is sufficient variety on the planet at the moment to make it inevitable .
It sounds like a lot of work , but there are a lot of hands . The terran biosphere , excluding humans , can be very closely approximated . If humans are included , decent first and second order approximations can be made .
Humans can run their biosphere .
Andre
Saturday, March 11, 2006
FutureWatch Predict
FutureWatch : Prediction ranking by Google
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Synopsis:
Search engines like Google cannot examine and rank the future , but they can certainly rank past predictions about the future .
Benefits : the continual feedback will lead not only to the identification and ranking of predictors , but hopefully make existing ones take more care (eg think-tanks) . The creation of verifiable marketplace for predictors will lead to much better prediction systems , something a high-tech society desperately needs .
Existing systems:
This ranking is already done to some extent by money ( eg Warren Buffet in investments) . This is also the only category where the accuracy of predictions is routinely measured .
Political elections also can be seen as to a measure of the accuracy of a politician’s predictions .
There are a large number of other prediction systems : think-tanks , futurologists , science-fiction writers , scenario-planners , politicians , climatologists , astrologers , mediums , tarot , numerology , etc , etc .
The problem in a fast-changing , high-tech society is that irreversable changes might take place before this evaluation process has caught up .
Argument for a new system:
It is clear that some individuals and organizations are better at prediction than others . The reason why might be unclear , but some consistently outperform others .
The problem is to find them . This is the same as ranking them for accuracy above chance . A formidable undertaking .
A large statistical base with built-in feedback is required for any method .
Until now , only money was available as a reliable ranking mechanism .
A Google-type voting ranking system seems another viable method .
Google does not have to decide whether a predictor is better : superior predictors will draw more links , and poorer ones less .
Categorization : some suggestions
By time and by type.
Scientific : Climate , population , etc
Financial
Economic
Politicians
Fashions
Happiness
Lotto
Etc , etc
Initial set-up problems:
This could be costly (if not impossible) .
Ask for help from your users .
Set up the categories .
Ask the predictors and the users to evaluate each other . This is viable only if a statistically large amount of data can be assembled .
Commercially interested predictors and users have an obvious interest in blowing their own horn and shooting down the competition .
But there is also a large class of vitally interested users in predictions : civil services , farmers , etc .
To repeat , this exercise would only be possible on a large statistical base .
But it will be very lucrative .
Andre Willers
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Synopsis:
Search engines like Google cannot examine and rank the future , but they can certainly rank past predictions about the future .
Benefits : the continual feedback will lead not only to the identification and ranking of predictors , but hopefully make existing ones take more care (eg think-tanks) . The creation of verifiable marketplace for predictors will lead to much better prediction systems , something a high-tech society desperately needs .
Existing systems:
This ranking is already done to some extent by money ( eg Warren Buffet in investments) . This is also the only category where the accuracy of predictions is routinely measured .
Political elections also can be seen as to a measure of the accuracy of a politician’s predictions .
There are a large number of other prediction systems : think-tanks , futurologists , science-fiction writers , scenario-planners , politicians , climatologists , astrologers , mediums , tarot , numerology , etc , etc .
The problem in a fast-changing , high-tech society is that irreversable changes might take place before this evaluation process has caught up .
Argument for a new system:
It is clear that some individuals and organizations are better at prediction than others . The reason why might be unclear , but some consistently outperform others .
The problem is to find them . This is the same as ranking them for accuracy above chance . A formidable undertaking .
A large statistical base with built-in feedback is required for any method .
Until now , only money was available as a reliable ranking mechanism .
A Google-type voting ranking system seems another viable method .
Google does not have to decide whether a predictor is better : superior predictors will draw more links , and poorer ones less .
Categorization : some suggestions
By time and by type.
Scientific : Climate , population , etc
Financial
Economic
Politicians
Fashions
Happiness
Lotto
Etc , etc
Initial set-up problems:
This could be costly (if not impossible) .
Ask for help from your users .
Set up the categories .
Ask the predictors and the users to evaluate each other . This is viable only if a statistically large amount of data can be assembled .
Commercially interested predictors and users have an obvious interest in blowing their own horn and shooting down the competition .
But there is also a large class of vitally interested users in predictions : civil services , farmers , etc .
To repeat , this exercise would only be possible on a large statistical base .
But it will be very lucrative .
Andre Willers
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