Friday, July 27, 2012

Occupy Wall St and Food Riots

Occupy Wall St and Food Riots
Andre Willers
28 Jul 2012
Synopsis :
Ostrum Spring : abrupt Hysterical Foci driven by food prices and shortages and focussed by social media like “Occupy Wall Street” will occur during September-October 2012 .
Discussion :
Drought in North America is already driving food prices higher than the last food riots in 2007 – 2008 . Social media has evolved as well and is better organised . The Establishment is in disarray due to poor governance of the banking sector . A superior system of governing communal resources is available .
Ostrum principles are better than capitalism , socialism . The Chinese version of State Capitalism is a form of Ostrum principles .
Appendix I (Hysterical Focus)
Appendix II (Ostrum and Hysterical focus)
Appendix III (Ostrum Principles)

Essentially , a revolution blows up from nowhere to overturn the existing order (a-la-Arab Spring) . Driven by desperation due to hunger and co-ordinated by social media . An Hysterical Focus forms that examines the problem from all angles and implements changes .
This Revolutionary structure is further fuelled by the destruction of the middle-class .
Especially in the USA . Hundreds of thousands of reservists have seen their careers destroyed and their dependents turned into homeless persons by prolonged forced military service in losing pet wars designed to benefit a small elite . Previously , they had little redress except rebellion . Now they have Ostrum and Social Media .
Better and fairer for all .
This is the revolution coming near you soon . Most probably during September-October 2012 .
An interesting aside :
The hysterical focus is already operational , as can be seen in the Rupert Murdock affair . A media moghul widely regarded as unassailable is slowly been dismantled . Something that can only be explained by the fact that a large hysterical focus transcends it’s elements .
Delicious !
One of the most amoral systems ever devised (the mass media) is forced into being moral . The same fate is waiting for bankers , politicians and capitalists .

Viva la Revolution !
Viva La Ostrum !


Appendix I
Hysterical Focus .
Financial Crisis 30 Apr 2009
Andre Willers
30 Apr 2009

Synopsis :
The movement of the Hysterical Focus from the Financial Crisis to the Mexican-flu Crisis enables the measures put into place to ameliorate the Financial Crisis to take effect without too much further interference from the Focus .

Discussion :
The Hysterical Focus .
The Friendly Giant .
The strong point of freedom-systems is the independent , multi-faceted , in-force approach to problems .
The weak point is the inability to concentrate forces when needed .
The evolutionary meme that evolved in the surviving societies was the Hysterical Focus .

"Hysterical" because all items outside the focus are excluded .
Humans are a hysterical species . Watch any group of apes in the zoo . This has evolved into a strong point .
They and the media have a very limited range . That is the whole point . (The Schwerpunkt , to be exact.)

"Focus" because all the resources of the society are mobilized on this particular problem .
(Think columns of armour advancing independently , then converging on the target co-ordinated by urgent command signals .
Blitz-krieg . The Hysterical Focus .)

This is very powerful , especially after mass-media was invented .
Anything in the Hysterical Focus gets amplified , examined from every angle . The whole resources of the society gets mobilized . Huge resources are allocated .

Long-term administrators use it to secure funding . Politicians , fashionistas and other various sundry hangers-on try to catch some of the largesse .
Media owners and journalists have a conceit that they steer the process , forgetting that they are just a part of the feedback process .

The Hysterical Focus has this teensy-weensy drawback : if it stays too long on one spot , the cure is worse than the disease .
The process lacks proper feedback-control safeguards . Something like an immune system overreacting (think SARS flu)

Normally , the Hysterical Focus moves on rapidly , as the short attention span of it's components (humans and media) is exhausted . Always a new Paris Hilton .
See "The sources of the Nile"

The Financial Crisis was over in Oct 2008 (see previous posts on "Fin*******" in )
But the continued focus was beginning to harm recovery efforts by Apr 2009 .
Politicians (like Bush jr with 9/11) tried to keep the focus on the thing that gave them power , not realizing that more power is available by moving the focus on . Notice the adept use Clinton made of the effect .

So , the Mexican flu comes as a relief to the system . The Hysterical Focus has shifted to something that can be handled (since it has been handled before ) . Enormous resources will be allocated , careers will be made , institutes founded , bureaucracies initiated . The usual suspects .

The economic system will quietly rebound . The professionals would have gathered enough support to follow through on the enormous energies released on the problem while it was at the Hysterical Focus .

This is happening as we speak .

The economic consequences of Mexican Flu .
1.Food-production and distribution : nil .
Most food production not on subsistence level is done by machines with a few operators . Distribution is done by containerized holders or ships .

2.Others : these might even benefit , as costs are cut by limiting unnecessary travel .

3.The Losers: Third world countries . The tourism industry .

4.Big Winners : the gene-technology industry . A general flu vaccine was at the start of FDA certification . This will be fast-tracked . Vaccines in general might shift into a subsidiary Focus .

5. Short-term effects :
Barely a hiccup . Even if the mortality rate is 50% .
About 80% of the labour force is unnecessary to produce all the goods for society . The credit crunch means that they are not necessary for the consumer side , either .

6. Long-term effects : acceleration of change towards the singularity , as bio- and nano- safeguards are relaxed

The Hysterical Focus as an Artificial Intelligence .
This would be valid if there were boundary conditions . Even as is , I would classify it as AI(3.05) .
See "Artificial Intelligence"
It has one of the primary characteristics : elements of it (ie humans) cannot understand it or manipulate it successfully .
Infinite series like the reserve arguments are applicable , but is doubtful in steering . The system is self-aware to a degree (ie all those hardnosed editors , businessmen and politicians .)

This leads to some fascinating examples :

History and Power .
The Hysterical Focus is the fount of Power for humans . They fight and scheme to get there , then it burns them to frazzle .
Their problem was that they could not get out of the focus . It followed them .
Recent examples : LouisIV , Napoleon , Stalin , Hitler , Mao.
They were forced into playing the roles at the apex of power that they crafted themselves into .
See "Competition and Co-operation"
It turned them crazy . They were at most AI(2.25) , trying to handle problems AI(3.1) would be pressed for .

Those who managed to duck by passing the buck : (that we know of)
Washington (who did it while leaving a legacy) . Not bad for a farmer . Much underrated .
Kemal Ataturk (who showed that it can be done in the modern age)
Wellington (the Turtle-finger defence .) . Hunker down and show the Focus the Finger .

Washington was more effective , but Ataturk 's job was more difficult . Both were lucky . But Ataturk made most of his own luck by manipulating long-term probabilities .

Still , Washington managed to set up a system where the Hysterical Focus passes on fairly regularly (by declining the Kingship)
Ataturk did the same .

What does this have to do with the Financial Crisis on 30 Apr 2009 ?
Why , everything .
The systems are accustomed to a moving Hysterical Focus . Boundary conditions are slowly seeping in as the system evolves towards AI(4) . The USA is more comfortable with Turkey as an ally than with most European countries . (Their founders , Washington and Ataturk , were brothers under the skin.)

A quiet Spine is emerging : USA and Turkey , with Mexico and India as junior partners . High-tech with man-power . And a liveable compromise with Islam .

The whole Middle East is kept alive by US subsidies to Egypt ( Ramses would never have gotten into this fix!) .
If they cease this , Egypt has a choice of seizing the Saudi-Arabian oilfields or starving . Attacking Israel is not even an option .
But this window is rapidly passing ( "Negative Pressure : An Important Update ." ) .
July to Aug 2009 will see a big change .

The Hysterical Focus will pass to the Middle East , an ever popular destination . Why , if it did not exist , one might think that it would need to be invented .

The world economy would quietly knit itself back together .
The Bright Star has passed . For now .

The Lidless Eye .
Tolkien must have had some acquaintance with accountancy firms .

They see everything but observe nothing .

But the random Hysterical Focus overrides all . This threat will concentrate many minds wonderfully .

Isn't randomness a wonderful thing ?
The wicked does not flee when nobody pursues , but they damn'well do if there is a finite probability that the Lidless Eye will turn in their direction . Especially if the full force is at random .

Can you see the Lidless Eye sighing for the days of Mordor ?
At least it would have known what to with the Wizards of Enron .


Appendix II
Hysterical Focus and Ostrum Commons
Andre Willers
20 Oct 2011

Synopsis :
Hysterical Foci spontaneously self-assemble if there are a critical number of Ostrum Commons Rules present .
There are Eight Ostrom Rules . General theory of Reserves suggest that any 1/3 of them (ie any 3 rules ) will lead to Self-assembly of an Hysterical Focus . Regardless of consequences .

Discussion :

1.Hysterical Focus :
See “Inside the ignition of an hysterical focus” Jun 2010
Humans are an hysterical species . This was turned into a powerful advantage .
It evolved from early monkey and ape stages .

The attention and energies of the whole troop is co-opted (ie involuntary) and co-ordinated onto one single subject . This happens in the amygdala and hippocampus .

Fast forward to humans , and you have fashion (a mild form) or an Hysterical Focus .
All the resources of the group is devoted to the problem in an involuntary fashion .
No human is immune .
Individual considerations are overridden at very deep levels .

The stuff Revolutions are made from .
A highly successful method of breaking false optimal peaks

2.Ostrum Commons :
The system formed a Commons , resolvable in three ways :
2.1Tragedy of the Commons (Communism) Cf Aral Sea
2.2Private ownership(Capitalism) Cf Economic crashes
2.3Ostrum Commons .
This lost out in competition because it is essentially a fractal Small-system , dependant on good communication . It kept bubbling up in peasant revolts , but could never self-cohere .
This changed with electronic communication systems like facebook , twitter, telephone ,etc .
Unstoppable now . Over a certain quantitive threshold , the network changes quantitively.

3.Self-Assembly :
Any three Ostrum rules present will result in the spontaneous self-assembly of the other Rules .
The Dear Reader can prove this himself/herself .(Hint:look at overlapping dimensionalities of the Rules)
Or they can cheat and look at “New Tools” Nov 2008 .
If there is a sufficient density of communication , an Hysterical Focus will form . And we are off to the races . A fertile field of future research .

4.Some interesting properties of Hysterical Foci :
4.1They don't stop . Once ignited , the Focus continues until the goals are met or the information links have been smashed (not possible today , even with a nuclear war). Hunkering down and waiting until it dies down does not work .
4.2There are no leaders initially . Decoying the structure into an hierarchical system has been an old counter . Not possible with a large number of alternate information pathways , or the awareness of Ostrum Rules .
4.3The individual members of the Hysterical Focus follow group rules , not self-interest .
Your old-fashioned Revolutionaries .
4.4Nobody is immune . It is as deep as your genes .
4.5Politicians , PR and advertising firms have become aware of the effect and are trying to harness it .
Sigh . It is a Beth(2) system , and it will always turn in their hands .

Hysterically yours

Appendix A
A powerful example :
China :
Politicians did not initiate the household-responsibility system : local villagers developed it as an experiment later applied nationwide.
Allocating farmlands to individuals or to families rated as a crime during the Mao era in China, but the low-level productivity under collective farming and drought forced villagers ofXiaogang, Fengyang to do so in 1978. They implemented this system secretly, and signed a contract, "if any one of us is put to prison as a result, others shall be responsible for taking care of his children until they reach 18 years of age".
The secret experiment proved very successful. In 1979 similar experiments began inSichuan and Anhui provinces, both seeing dramatic increases in agricultural productivity.Deng Xiaoping openly praised these experiments in 1980, and the system has been adopted nationwide since 1981.

Appendix III
Ostrum Principles
The Ostrum Game
Andre Willers
30 Oct 2011

“One Game shall bind them all .” , ( with apologies to Tolkien)
“This time , we know for sure the grass is greener somewhere”
“A Revolution , any Revolution.”

Synopsis :
A Game for Grown-ups .
The Eight Ostrum Design Principles are Meta-rules that generate self-consistent sets of rules that encompasses competition , co-operation , catastrophe , hierarchies and other systems undreamt of , all between discrete , interacting , self-organising systems .
Your avatar can go from SecondLife to Simworld , to War Worlds , to any desired locale .
Reality becomes a subset .

Discussion :
1.An incredible amount of money can be made .While money still has some meaning .
Without too much work . See Para 8 in Appendix A
Each Game Company is a base nested institution .
They bind easily together , releasing a lot of energy and money .
Explosive Feedback Synergism .
A run-up to the Singularity .

2.Feedback between Games and Reality :
The Meta-rules make no differentiation between Game-characters and Real-characters .
Indeed , many Real-characters have been spun into Game-characters , and vice-versa .
Think Sherlock Holmes , MacGyver , Gauss , young Werther etc
See “mirror-neuron networks” , any soap opera , etc .

Real-life problems get treated the same way as Game problems . The more diverse and sophisticated the Game interactions become , the more effect on any real or Game system .
Eventually , they become undistinguishable as technology progresses .

3.The Grass is provably greener somewhere .
Long known as a wishful thinking fallacy , until Ostrum published the Design Principles in 1990 .
This was the trigger event of under-the-surface knowledge about Ostrum Rules building up .
Suddenly , it became possible .

A Phase-change in the noosphere occurred .

It meant that a Disaster of the Commons or an Empire was not inevitable . Grandchildren could survive .


Enormous tensions began surfacing . These effects are still playing out now .
A really , really major Hysterical Focus started forming , and is still intensifying .

Now , are you surprised that 1990 was the year of huge revolutions , when the USSR collapsed ?

The Ostrum Game beat the Ring of Power .

And you have not seen anything yet .

The pace of Revolutions is intensifying .
A good thing , if Homo wishes to escape extinction .

4.Automating Ostrum Rules :
They might be Meta-rules , but they are still rules .
We can certainly write programs that can serve to guide past most of the pitfalls and suggest alternatives .

5.Multicellular Bodies as Commons :
We can certainly analyze bodies in terms of Commons . The Dear Reader will find many interesting things if he does that .
Note the emphasis on communication .
Talk to your body . Aloud . And listen in the silences in between .
Create a virtual body and note the interactions .
Use the Ostrum Design principles .

6.Singularity :
It is immediately obvious that humans are then not limited to Real biochemical definitions of personality . The emphasis on communication means that personalities are distributed across Real and Game spaces . The Game space personality segments are only limited by internal non-contradictory rules . That can be done via Ostrum Design principles .

Not exactly instantaneous , but I can intuit that the time can be calculated . It would be less than real time .
The putative developing system would have ethical constraints on abandoning Real-part personalities under Ostrum Rules .
Told you it would be kindler , gentler .

7.Phase Change :
The system has already undergone an irrevocable phase change in 1990 .
You can fast-forward the rest .

8.Did Ostrum know what she was unleashing ?
The Revolutionary aspects , nearly certainly .
In her quiet way , she is one of the greatest Revolutionaries in Homo Sapiens history . Worthy of being called a Matriarch .

The Singularity aspect is more uncertain . She certainly knew that she unleashed major fairness , but the phase-change in the Noosphere I do not know .
Still , a tour-de-force .

How do feel like being a pet of your avatar ?

Andre .

Appendix A
To quote from Wiki : (comments in brackets are my own ).

“ Ostrom identifies eight "design principles" of stable local common pool resource management:[10]
1. Clearly defined boundaries (effective exclusion of external un-entitled parties;
2. Rules regarding the appropriation and provision of common resources that are adapted to local conditions; (Equal sharing of debts and rewards)
3. Collective-choice arrangements that allow most resource appropriators to participate in the decision-making process; (Consensus decisions-no leveraged hierarchies)
4. Effective monitoring by monitors who are part of or accountable to the appropriators; (Policing)
5. A scale of graduated sanctions for resource appropriators who violate community rules; (Opportunity to learn from mistakes )
6. Mechanisms of conflict resolution that are cheap and of easy access; (Fair and Fast Justice . See how Inquisitorial Justice systems like Chinese , French or Sharia does it.)
7. Self-determination of the community recognized by higher-level authorities; (Autonomy within clearly defined levels . Something like a Federation.)
8. In the case of larger common-pool resources,organization in the form of multiple layers of nested enterprises, with small local CPRs at the base level. (Clear and quick relations with others. A potential sticky point with states.)
Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action Ostrom, Elinor, Cambridge University Press, 1990 “

The most important book in the Twentieth Century .
Try to read it .


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