Thursday, July 12, 2012

Order using Chaos

Order using Chaos.
Andre Willers
12 Jul 2012
Synopsis :
Getting orderly results using chaos using purely mechanical macroscopic means has been solved by an extraordinary genius , Hannibal C Ford .

Discussion :
Multiton cannon bobbing chaotically about on the ocean has to fire at the precisely right times and aimings . He inverted the problem : calculate the ideal firing solution on a stable platform , and then have the guns fire when the reality (ie the ship gun platform) conforms to the theoretical stable platforms .
See Appendix I
“The Mk 41 Stable Vertical was a vertical seeking gyroscope, and its function was to tell the rest of the system which-way-is-up on a rolling and pitching ship. It also held the battery's firing keys.[1]”
His genius was in integrating this into a seamless whole . It was of critical importance in winning WWII . Even today , nanotech assemblies can use his really elegant solutions . Especially the gyroscopes . Cf mitochondria .
The rotating parts of mitochondria spin at speeds of about 200 000 rpm . They know very well if the inertial platform changes . It degrades their performance . See Appendix II . It is a wonder that anybody survives a space-trip . As it is , any rapid rotation of the body will cause debilitation as performance of mitochondria degrades . You have billions of little gyroscopes in your cells that have some very particular thresholds .
Luckily , we can re-orientate from the outside . The system has unbalanced charges , so we can use something like APS Therapy to realign spin directions to external realities .
An interesting aside :
Humans on Terra evolved within an electric field of about 200 000 volts between the ionosphere and earth , with about 60 000 lightning storms on the planet at any moment to balance the charge . (The ionosphere charge is fed by the solar wind . So , if there is a solar storm , expect electrical storms and lots of rain .) This must have an effect on the mitochondrial spins .
Algorithm :
Calculate a simplified non-chaotic optimum solution . Then induce chaos and wait until a momentary fluctuation matches the optimum criteria and execute very rapidly .

This algorithm is designed to pluck order out of chaos
Application 1
Prevent microgravity complications of spaceflight .
Pesky things like loss of bone mass , fluid distribution , etc . Usually ascribed to lack of gravity . But Terran sea-going animals evolved in microgravity . The problem is that the mitochondria do not know which way is up . They need that electric field for that , or at least no sideways yanking .
A simple solution is that the astronauts do a head-over-heels spin in the plane of orbit for at least ten spins per day . (This will feel so good , the problem will be get them to stop) .
A direction ! Any direction !
APS systems can be used for extra effect , steering the body spin into orbital spin .

Application 2
Fracking .
The earth has continual tremors of various intensities . You get more bang for your fracking charge if you calculate the intensity and direction of the desired tremors , then fire when the optimal is reached . The effectiveness of this approach has been literally battle-proved . This is how the US Navy zapped the Japanese navy . See Appendices I and II .

Application 3
The Zone and Mitochondrial Spin :
During replication , the spin has to stop . All those strings . Sulphur elastic bonds . The mitochondrial spins are braked , divide and the energy in the bonds spin up the new mitochondrial pair . But one still “remembers” the spin of the parent . Do this for billions . There are billions of mitochondria still with the same spin as the origin . Called the “Home Advantage” . You simply have more energy on your home ground .
An interesting aside :
What if all the spins are aligned ? This Goldratt in disguise . If every element is 100% efficient , the organism will die because of inventory build-up . The system has to have inefficiencies and commensal users .
What is the optimal spin alignment population ?
From general principles (see “New Tools” “Infinite Probes”)
See Appendix III and Appendix IV.
The general argument holds . An attractor basin between 27% and 38% exists . Anywhere in between the two you will be in the zone .
So , we would expect the best runners on the planet to come from near the equator , and not travel far in terms of latitude . Which is the case . (Bolt , Kenya) .
You can change this ,of course ,using the techniques I described . Good luck .

Application 4
Politics .
An example :
Napoleon’s Mother to Napoleon :
“Now France is ablaze – it is a noble bonfire , my son , and worth the risk of being burnt.”

Being prepared , they pluck the fire out of the bonfire at the right instant .
See Appendix V
Exactly the same you have to do to induce fusion at low temperatures .

And so the system teeters along low-probability chaotic margins .
And think it the cat’s whiskers . But it is Schrodinger’s cat .
Oh well .

Appendix I
These computers were built by Ford Instrument Company, Long Island City, Queens, New York. The company was named after Hannibal C. Ford, a genius designer, and principal in the company

The Mk 41 Stable Vertical was a vertical seeking gyroscope, and its function was to tell the rest of the system which-way-is-up on a rolling and pitching ship. It also held the battery's firing keys.[1]
Notice that the gyroscope held the firing-triggers . The key to the whole contraption .
Appendix II
ATP as Neurotransmitter
Andre Willers
18 Jan 2010

Synopsis :
ATP has been proven to be a neurotransmitter . Various receptor sites on cellwalls have been found as result of the Human Genome project . Important health considerations result .

Discussion :
See important article in ScientificAmerican Dec 2009 , p60 "The double life of ATP" by BS Khakh and G Burnstock (let us hope that nominative determinism does not hold sway .)
Beg , borrow , steal or buy a copy .

See "ATP and Catalytic Motors" . Appended in Appendix A for ease of reference .

Crackpot duckling into Swan :
The effect had been clinically demonstrated since 1959 , but disregarded as not fitting into the accepted model .
The isolation of certain ATP and ADP receptors in 1993 and 1994 , as well as development of Clopidogrel to prevent clot formation led to greater acceptance .
The Human Genome Project led to the genes for receptor sites of ATP and it's various breakdown products . It is now a Hot Subject (ie fashionable) . A number of drugs are in various development stages .
A lot of money , major health items and knowledge is in play .

A Brief Description .
It is a very elegant mechanism . Also very old .

1. ATP = Adenosine + P + P + P
= AdenosineTriPhosphate
2. ABP= AdenosineBiPhosphate (the last phosphor atom has been stripped away . This is energy bond powering the muscles)
3. AMP= AdenosineMonoPhosphate . Only one phosphor atom .
4. Adenosine is adenosine (a purine) without any phosphor atoms .

Every cell has specialized receptor sites on the surface that interacts with one or a combination of these compounds . This gives at least 2^4=16 possible basic receptor types .
See "Phene Systems"

The information being triggered is in the cell-wall (the Phene system) . This causes various portals to open or close , influencing sodium , calcium , etc balances in cellular substructures (including DNA in the chain)
See "Unpacking and packing information"

Surrounding the cells are class of enzymes called EctoATPases that sequentially strip away the phosphor atoms from ATP .
See "Chaperones , unpacking and asthma"

This stripping of phosphor atoms makes the whole system workable by creating four unique markers necessary and sufficient for a three dimensional contiguous information space.

A teensy little problem is : where does all this energy go ? Heating up the synaptial fluid seems to be a result . Is this essential for multi-cellular life ? The intercellular information transfer spaces are then always hot and ready to roll . Certainly , it would give a great advantage to even a cold-blooded lifeform . The energy costs would not be very high .

From an evolutionary viewpoint , it is easy to see that a temperature control mechanism in synaptial fluids expanded into the whole organism in a random mutational-selection process .

But what is the original mechanism ?
See ApendixA "Throttle"
It must involve the production speed of ATP : ie the rotational speed of the rotor in the mitochodria .
There are two known ways to influence this:
Ironically , sleep seems to be basically necessary to give synaptical spaces a chance to cool down . If they grow too hot , the other neurotransmitters start breaking down and the well-known dementia of sleeplessness results . Obviously , the immune system is affected as well . This whole ATP signaling system is part of the immune control-system .
Note the correlation of symptoms between heat-stroke , sleeplessness and forms of dementia associated with various neurotransmitter shortages .

2.APS generator .
(See AppendixA)
The pulsed waveform will not only speed up lagging mitochondrial rotors, but also slow down ones that are too fast (ie overproducing ATP) . This should ameliorate synaptial fluid overheating .
Ideally , we should have an APS generator that can force a desired spin rate on any set of organs . But the one we can buy now is set at 3 milliseconds .

Remember , a standard human produces about 40 Kg of ATP per day (See AppendixA)

An useful analogue:
Using the energy transmission conduit also as an information transmission route is used in electrical systems . You can buy a system that uses the electrical wiring of your home to transmit music , video , internet , etc .
The analogue goes both ways , since the problems with the electrical system will also be experienced in the ATP system .

Known systems using ATP as neurotransmitter:
1.Blood vessel constriction : ATP as co-neurotransmitter with noradrenaline .
2. Blood vessel dilation : shear stress->ATP->NO->vessel relaxation.Part of the feedback system .
3.Blood clotting: platelets have ADP receptors.
4.Cell proliferation : eg restinosis , various cancers . See Phene control system .
5.Eye: acetylcholine and ATP are co-neurotransmitters.
6.Ear :about 50% of cochleal hairs have ATP receptors.
7.Taste:as expected , evolutionary old chemical receptors like taste or smell do not function without ATP receptors(in this case P2X2 and P2X3 receptors) .
8.Pain and touch: mainly the P2X3 receptor .
9.Neuropathy :
See "Neuropathy"
P2X receptors are involved .
10.Digestive system:
Irritable bowel syndrome and Crohn's disease :P2X and P2Y receptors are involved .
11.Clotting :
Existing drugs Clopidogrel and Prasugrel blocks P2X12 receptor .
12.Tumors , developmental diseases , etc .
13.Disease regulation using bacterial ATP signaling.
14.Old Age
Apoptosis and ATP quorum mechanisms await exploration .

The Phene System:
It seems that the ATP signaling systems plays an important part in the meta-control system of multi-cellular organisms (multi-cellular includes a single cell with a mitochondrium by definition) .

We know that viruses encapsulated by cell-wall material is the signaling mechanism of cells .

Speculation : Distributed Viruses .
That ATP , ADP , AMP and Adenosine plus receptor sites form a distributed virus
The crystal structure of the P2X receptor looks like a typical virus . It only needs the key(s) to activate . As expected from a phene control mechanism , it regulates activities in the cell via switching on or off of genes in the DNA .
(See how handy the concept of phenes is ?)

Even more speculative :
Do not try this without qualified supervision .
Diseases like AIDS , cancer or old age must interact with the ATP signaling system at some stage . Quorum systems play a role (why we use melatonin)
Slow down the mitochondrial rotors with melatonin , and simultaneously entrain them with a APS generator on selected organs . Pulse if necessary .
This will hopefully break interlocked feedback cycles .

Interestingly , this should work on fevers as well , as well as disrupt quite a few viral diseases .

A hot time in the old town tonight .

Andre .


Appendix A

ATP and Catalytic Motors
Andre Willers
4 Dec 2008

The Catalytic Motor.
See Annexure A below .
This is a new concept to me .

The basic principle :
The chemical equilibrium of a reaction is biased in a certain direction by dynamical , rotational processes .

And not in a trivial way either . A whopping 40 kg per day production and consumption of ATP for a sedentary human (of say mass 80 kg) means a very finely balanced mechanism . (Half of body mass per day)

The logistical demands almost necessitate a multi-cellular organism .

Where does the rotor come from ?
From bacterial flagellae . They work by rotation of the flagella .(Google it)
The rotor is driven by proton gradients , caused by electron-flow balances between inflowing nutrients and usage .

Putative evolution :
The ur-mitochondrium was a free organism whose flagellae by chance could beat two poisons (oxygen and alcohol) into harmless ATP . As if protein-folding was not complicated enough , now dynamics have to be considered as well .
As the concentrations of these poisons increased , ur-mitochondria did the usual plaque - freeform alternation of bacteria . In every colony episode , the efficiency of the conversion was enhanced . At some stage , a freeform colonized some other bacterium . The host learned to use ATP as an energy source . Multicellular forms were force-formed .
The motors of the mitochondria cannot stop spinning . (If they do , apoptosis results: see Appendix B) . The ATP has to be used .

Rotor-spin speed:
This seems to be quite slow . (As expected from a flagella heritage) . About one to three milliseconds per revolution . ( About 1 to 0.3 kHz) . The ATP production is not smooth either . There are three units physically opening and closing (see Appendix A).

A very useful analogue:
We can use an national electricity grid operating at 1 kHz alternating current of three-phase current as an tool for understanding the meta-energy flow in the body . Every cell would be like a municipality with its own powerstation .
The voltage and transformers ? Nobody has looked , but a guess would be ATP concentration regulators , like the reticular cellular formations , antioxidants (see Appendix B) , ATP chaperones , cellular-wall ports , etc . You get the drift .

The advantage of this approach is that we then have an immediately usable box of tools to analyze and suggest fruitful new approaches .
Our electricity networks would also gain , since evolution has been at this problem for a tad longer than humans .

Melatonin for ESKOM ? Some would say they are asleep at the switch in any case .

Throttles .
There seems to be a wee problem here .
The problem seems to be too much energy , not too little .
Most organisms normally spend 1/9 to 1/3 of 24 hours actually getting enough to eat . The rest is spent having fun or sleeping .
But a certain reserve needs to kept (see "Infinite Probes" et al )

There is a strong suspicion that melatonin throttles down the production of ATP , but not the usage of ATP (cf fMRI scans of sleeping brains) See Appendix B . Sleep would then be necessary to keep the organism out of trouble (ie quiescent) while surplus ATP is used up . (1/3 : eg 8 hours per day)

Obesity epidemic:
As can be seen from the above , the problem is not a sudden influx of energy-rich food .This has been a trouble since the first mitochondrium took up housekeeping in a host cell .
The obesity is caused simply by a lack of sleep .
Present generations sleep less . Artificial lighting , computers , cinema , etc . The extra waking time is also usually spent eating .
The equilibrium is upset . (This has been going on for about 100 years on a large scale) .

An interesting result is the generational increase in IQ measurements . The system is trying to soak up the extra energy in more complex nervous structures (for which it has the evolutionary tools) . An epigenetic feedback loop is suspected .

Kids who stay up late for three generations will be fatter and smarter .

Diabetes .
Melatonin has many effects . Lack of it causes neuro-degenerative complications (see Appendix B) . Included is peripheral neuropathy . This is where we can use our useful little model of an electricity grid above . Without the feedback from the damaged nerves , the system cannot shift loads . Just monitoring the glucose level is too coarse. Fluctuations build up . Future load estimations cannot be made . Fat builds up .

Old Age
Lack of sleep during old age leads to glucose metabolic complications for all the reasons mentioned , regardless whether the person is obese or not .

Other throttles are rendered less effective by lack of materials:
Specifically , sulfur (H2S hibernation throttle) , chrome (cytochrome oxidase : see Appendix B) , alpha lipoic acid(nerve repair) , melatonin .

Homeostasis is another useful little energy soak .
Large brains ditto .

But Culture , hot or cold , is master of them all .
Nothing soaks up energy like culture . Fashion is by far the largest industry on the planet , outstripping even food production .
Eg sports is a fashion . Clothes .Entertainment . Tourism . Even lies . (JK Rowling is the most fashionable and richest professional liar in Britain .)

What is the culture of your mitochondria ?

An Actual , Physical ATP generator you can buy .
This is a well-known and clinically proven machine usually touted for pain-relief .
It works .
But the theory is rather patchy . There used to be a lot of mumbo-jumbo about the gate theory of pain .

It actually works by alleviating the underlying causes of the pain (see scans on website) . It does this by pumping energy into the ATP-rotors from the outside at the damage site .

It does this by sending 3-millisecond square pulses which decay exponentially (see wave-form on web-site .) This spins up damaged rotors and transfers energy (a non-food source of energy) . Most importantly , it re-establishes timing mechanisms . Cells on the point of mitochondrial apoptosis can be salvaged . (The apoptosis mechanism is very sensitive , due to all the feedback mechanisms involved.)
While the energy input here is small , the energy of an ATP molecule is not exactly large . And the ATP is targeted exactly at the damage site . This helps to stop the cascade effect of trauma-shock .

Your attention is drawn to the well-known effects of aligned magnetic fields on bone-healing . A similar thing happens here .
Notice the effects of zero electro-magnetic fields on early astronauts .(Their metabolisms went haywire) . They had to be supplied with artificial fields .

Energise organisms directly by high-energy em-waves .
Are there any like that already ? The planet is awash with em waves and organisms with flagellae .
Deep ocean , moons of Jupiter or Saturn springs to mind .

An actual cure for diabetes by re-establishing communications between cell-groups to do proper load-sharing .
Also useful for cases of paralysis or strokes .

Fat-loss without dieting or exercising . Fashionable .
Targeted , too .
Spin up the mitochondrial rotors with em-waves , then wash out the surplus ATP in urine after fixing this ATP with something like a mono-clonal anti-body .
Get rid of that cellulite !

Cheating at sports . (Even more fashionable)
A focused em-wave of the right form will boost ATP production of an athlete or horse at that critical instant , and is nearly undetectable .

Muscle building for the gym-brigade .
Eg the machine for training the biceps can have an em-generator focused on the biceps while training . Saturation by ATP will hopefully rapidly increase muscle mass.

MRI problems .
As you will have gathered , alignment of mitochondrial rotor-spins by a powerful magnetic field as found in MRI machines can have unfortunate effects if the patient is soon afterwards exposed to em radiation of periods of 3 milliseconds (or beats thereof)

Melatonin and DHEA supplements should form part of the old age package (like statins , etc) .

Nanotech should be able to do really interesting things .

And so it goes round and round .


Annexure A
Sunday, January 21, 2007
ATP Generator Structure – Function
Almost incredibly, a sedentary adult makes and uses 40 kg of ATP per day! ATP is made by the F0-F1 ATPase, a molecular motor with a rotating shaft and fixed "stator". One end of the shaft, F0, is buried in the mitochondrial inner membrane where the proton gradient causes it to rotate. A single gamma subunit connects the F0 to three alpha and beta subunits, together F1, which are responsible for synthesizing ATP from ADP and Pi (H2PO4-). As a catalytic motor and not just a catalyst, the F0-F1 ATPase is able to increase the rate of reaction away from the equilibrium (which strongly favors the reverse reaction, hydrolysis, because the concentrations of reactants and product in mitochondria are similar). The gamma subunit rotates too slowly, in the microsecond-to-millisecond range, for standard molecular dynamics simulation. To solve this, the authors applied "biasing forces" as the motor moved and assumed these forces would not change the mechanism. Positively charged amino acids on the gamma subunit attract negative amino acids on beta subunit, producing smooth and efficient ionic coupling. Rotation of the gamma subunit induces the opening of the beta subunits. The beta subunit closes spontaneously. Synthesis is not the reverse of hydrolysis, explaining why high concentrations of free ATP does not inhibit synthesis. Gao and colleagues propose a detailed model of how the motor harnesses the proton gradient to act against the equilibrium. Their quantitative model is based on the conceptual “binding change mechanism” model proposed by Boyer, where ATP synthesis proceeds by each beta subunit changing from “open”, weak nucleotide binding, to “tight”, high affinity ATP binding, to “loose”, with the release of ATP. The authors used this model to make accurate predictions about synthesis and hydrolysis kinetics and they invite others to test their detailed model.
PubMed :Yi Qin Gao, Wei Yang and Martin Karplus, "A Structure-Based Model for the Synthesis and Hydrolysis of ATP by F1-ATPase" Cell Oct 21, 2005; 123(2):195-205

Annexure B

Melatonin, mitochondria, and cellular bioenergetics.

Acuña-Castroviejo D, Martín M, Macías M, Escames G, León J, Khaldy H, Reiter RJ.

Departamento de Fisiología, Instituto de Biotecnología, Universidad de Granada, Spain.

Aerobic cells use oxygen for the production of 90-95% of the total amount of ATP that they use. This amounts to about 40 kg ATP/day in an adult human. The synthesis of ATP via the mitochondrial respiratory chain is the result of electron transport across the electron transport chain coupled to oxidative phosphorylation. Although ideally all the oxygen should be reduced to water by a four-electron reduction reaction driven by the cytochrome oxidase, under normal conditions a small percentage of oxygen may be reduced by one, two, or three electrons only, yielding superoxide anion, hydrogen peroxide, and the hydroxyl radical, respectively. The main radical produced by mitochondria is superoxide anion and the intramitochondrial antioxidant systems should scavenge this radical to avoid oxidative damage, which leads to impaired ATP production. During aging and some neurodegenerative diseases, oxidatively damaged mitochondria are unable to maintain the energy demands of the cell leading to an increased production of free radicals. Both processes, i.e., defective ATP production and increased oxygen radicals, may induce mitochondrial-dependent apoptotic cell death. Melatonin has been reported to exert neuroprotective effects in several experimental and clinical situations involving neurotoxicity and/or excitotoxicity. Additionally, in a series of pathologies in which high production of free radicals is the primary cause of the disease, melatonin is also protective. A common feature in these diseases is the existence of mitochondrial damage due to oxidative stress. The discoveries of new actions of melatonin in mitochondria support a novel mechanism, which explains some of the protective effects of the indoleamine on cell survival.

Publication Types:
• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
• Review

PMID: 11270481 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]


Appendix III
Infinite Probes in Optimization .
Andre Willers
5 Jan 2008

n! = n*(n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)*…*1

The Euclidean Constant e .
e = (1/1! + 1/2! + 1/3!+ 1/4!… )

I will make it as simple as possible using costs and temporal sequences as examples .

Assume that the elements of a system are identifiable and repetitive .
The rules of Arithmetic can then be applied .

Take any such system . By definition it can then be subdivided indefinitely . Each subdivision of r elements can have r! possible permutations (or states) .

Let there be a CostReserve to cover unknown costs in the failure of any element in a group .

Key Assumption
Let at least one element of each r be Aristotelian False (ie a failure cost item)

The Total cost of failure will be the sum of the cost of failures of the elements.
(ReserveCost) *( (1/1! + 1/2! + 1/3!+ 1/4!… ))= (TotalCost)

Your Reserve times the sum of individual failures = total
This defines the boundary .

This is the optimization equation .

This is equal to
ReserveCost / TotalCost = 1/e ~ 0.37

This means that you should not consider an endeavour where the rate of return is less than 37% . This is the long-term break-even point from a probabilistic viewpoint .

This equation is independent of space or time .

Any society (any at all ) that does not deliver 37%+ returns gets zapped by the chaotic downturns .

Since vested interests always decrease rates of returns , empires rise and fall .

The probe can be used in any infinite series , but care has to be taken to define the terms .

An Interesting corollary :

The alert reader would have noticed that the above is true for when there is always at least one false item per group .
What if there is at least one true item per group ? This is approached as follows:

In trading systems , individual items can be identified . The cost of failure in an individual item is then = 1/ (r!/r) = 1/ (r-1)!
The summation is then
(ReserveCost/Item)*(1*1/1! + 2*1/2! + 3*1/3!+ 4*1/4!… ))= (TotalCost)
(ReserveCost/Item)*(1 + 1 + 1/2!+ 1/3!… ))= (TotalCost)
(ReserveCost/Item) / (TotalCost) = 1/(1+e) ~ 0.27

As can be seen , trading systems will survive the collapse of empires . There is a whole 10% difference favouring traders . Recovery systems will then also favor traders .

This is the underlying reason why Stalinistic Communism failed and Chinese went trader . The VOC and East India Co . are good examples .

Ten percent is just too much .

Ho-ho-ho !
The average between 0.37 and 0.27 is roughly 0.33 . A third .Can you see where this is relevant in any infinite situation where uncertainty rules?

Non-Failure Ratio
A non-failure ratio of (1- 1/3) ~2/3 summated over infinity = (2/3) / (1-2/3) =2 .

This means that any system that can be described or broken up into smaller groups is strongly ordered . Successful subgroups survive by a factor of 2 . This is built into the mathematics of the Universe . Life is one such sub-group , so are particles ,etc . Negative entropy is the rule . Life is everywhere . Positive entropy only holds in the most primitive and earliest systems .


Quantum and non-quantum systems are the same .

Singularity Points.
27% and 37% are singularity points , as are (100-27)=63% and 53% . SocioEconomic systems destabilize at these points . Regardless whether they are human , alien , japanese , chinese or any other sort of ese .
Any society where more than a third of productive enterprise is spent without engendering new wealth creation is doomed .

Tax rates of more than 27% reduce trade . Tax rates between 27% and 37% will let it limp along . Tax rates over 37% is a disaster waiting to happen . It is that simple , and no amount of pontificating will change the realities of economics .

The tax rate anchored between 0% and 27% will follow a catenary . The optimal will be halfway (12.5%) . This would be the optimal VAT rate . Note that deviations from this (up or down) leads to social unrest . The unrest is not linear , but catenary . In other words , it gets rapidly worse as it approaches the anchor points of 0 or 27 % . This is true of any civilization , human or alien . It is inherent in the mathematics .

These are absolute rates , not relative .

The RepoRate .
The tax on new money . If the reporate plus profits stay away from the singularity points (27% , 37%) there is no problem.

What about undefined realities ? Refer to “Topos:
Note in the definitions above , that as groups are divided by n , and n->infinity , the system approaches undefined “thingies” . Hence , it can be used as a probe into undefined realms .

An interesting corollary is optimizing pairings of two . The theory above says that random pairing will lead to a failure rate of 37% . Observation seems to bear this out .

To optimize : Note and keep track the best features of the first 37/100 daters , then seriously consider the first anybody after that who equals or better the standards of the first 37
This optimizes your chances .

This result has been independently reached in games theory

Note that your body is independently doing this sort of infinite analysis . Hence speed dating , cocktail parties , mingling , etc .

A good algorithm is to speed date at least 50 persons . Do not do this if you cannot handle rejection , since this concentrates years of normal rejection into a few weeks .

A therapeutic mechanism? Sects use this whipsaw mechanism of rejection (by the outside world) and warm acceptance by the sect to create mini-societies .
Hence cold-canvassing . Rejection binds them closer . Any converts are a bonus . Most real converts are made by on-on-one contact .

But that is also the definition of most successful families .

If you are stupid and ugly , and can handle speed dating , you are a better man than I am , Human .

Virtual speed dating .
Analogous to cures for fear of heights , fear of confined spaces , etc . Considerable success has been achieved in reprogramming the amygdala for these and related phobias using virtual reality .

A Virtual Rejection website will make money .
That’s OK if somebody learns from it .
Another way for actresses or avatars to make money .
“I was rejected 1000 times by Lara”
“Balls rejected by Lara TombRaider as not dusty enough.”
The mind boggles .

Appendix IV
Infinite Probes 2
Andre Willers
30 April 2008 “Infinite Probes’

From discussing this with various recipients , there seems to be a need for a simpler explanation . I thought I had explained it in the simplest fashion possible . The subject matter is inherently complex .

But , here goes .

How much must you save ?
If you save too little , a random fluctuation can wipe you out .
If you save too much , you lose opportunity costs . If you are in competition , this loss can be enough to lose the competition (ie you die)

Intuitively , you can realize there is an optimum level of saving .

Methods exist of calculating this optimum in very specific instances (ie portfolios of shares ,eg Kelly criteria , or tactics in war eg MiniMax ) .

The General Case
We need to hold a Reserve in case Something goes wrong . But we do not know what thing goes wrong .

Infinite Probes tries to answer the general case . What is really , really surprising is that a answer is possible .

The Infinite bit comes from using the mathematical expansion of the Definition of Eulers Constant e = ( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
Where n!= n*(n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)*…*(1)

This approaches a constant , widely used in mathematics and physics .
(e = 2.718…) .

All we need is a system that can be subdivided indefinitely (to infinity) .

First , we divide by 1
Then 2
Then 3
Then 4

And so forth till infinity .

What is important is not that we do know what these divisions are , only that they are possible . We also do not know which one element goes wrong .

The other critical insight is that it is the relation between elements that is important . (Permutations) (The failure of an element in total isolation cannot affect the whole system by definition .)

We can count the number of relationships where there is failure of one element .
It is n! , where n is number of divisions where only one failure .

Multiple failures are handled by summing :

Our Reserve(R ) is divided by n to infinity and summed .

TotReserve= R*( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
TotReserve= R * e

To find the boundaries of our Reserve , we set TotReserve = Cost


R = 1/e * Cost
R ~ 0.37 * Cost

What does this mean?
This method measures the upper boundary of the reserve needed to survive failures in any element of the Cost-Universe . Ie , internal fluctuations .

This is the surprising bit . Any society that keeps at least 37% reserves , can only be destroyed by something outside it’s envelope . It is internally stable , no matter what .

Empires like the Ancient Egyptians , Romans , Chinese are possible , as long as there is no climactic fluctuation , new inventions , diseases ,etc . Rare events . Hence the technological stasis of old civilizations . The two are synonymous .

This is true at any scale (except quantal , by definition.) .

Individuals too . Humans can be seen as empires of noospheres .

The upper boundary does not take any double-counting into account . It is true for any system whatsoever .

A truly remarkable precise result from such general axioms .

The Lower Boundaries .
This is where it gets interesting .
Remember , we are just counting the number of ways in which permutations of one element can fail . We then sum them to get the effect of the failures of other elements

The easiest is the business that just starts and is not selling anything . It fails on n elements on every term . It’s floor capital must then be

This is the initial reserve to get off the ground .
This is true in any ecosystem . This is why it is so difficult to start a new business , or why a new species cannot succeed . Or why waves of pandemics are scarcer .

For the epidemically minded , this 10% difference is responsible for the demise of the Black Death ( smallpox outcompeted bubonic plaque variants for the CR5 access site.Ironically , the reason why we have only a limited HIV plague is the high competition for this site , probably some flu vectors . As one would expect , the incidence of HIV then becomes inversely proportional to connectivity (ie flights) .

A cessation of airplane flights will then lead to a flare-up of diseases like these .
Not exactly what anybody has in mind . )

When we find that we really need the spread of infectious vectors to stay healthy , then we know we have really screwed ourselves .

These are the two main boundaries .
The literature is full of other limits the series can approach . Keep a clear head on what the physical significance is .

I cannot leave the subject without the thing closest to human hearts : appearance .
Fat and fitness .
Sadly , the present fad for leanness is just that . The period of superfluous food is coming to an end .
Rich individuals can afford to be lean because the reserves are in the monetary wealth Women have to bear children individually , so they cannot store the needed reserves externally . Hence their fat storage is close to the theoretical optimum even in Western societies (33%) . In other societies the percentage is about 37-40% .

Human males have been bred (Mk III humans) for muscle and little fat (8% in a superbly fit male) . He does not have reserves to withstand even garrison duty (even little diseases will lay him low .) Note the frequent references to diseases laying whole armies low .

Note what is left out : the camp-followers . They survived The women and babyfat children . Every army seeded the invaded area with women and children .

The bred soldier has to eat a high-carb food frequently : not meat or fat , his body cannot store it . This is the definition of a wheat-eating legionary .

Ho ! Ho! Ho!
The Atkinson diet .
No wonder it does not make sense in evolutionary terms .
Mesomorphic humans have been bred not to transform expensive proteins and fats into bodymass .

The soldier-class were kept on a carbohydrate leash , which could only be supplied by farming .

The Smell of Horses .

Horses exude pheromones that promote body-leanness in humans . This has an obvious advantage to horses . Horses are breeding jockeys .

The time-span is enough : at least 8 000 years . (400 generations)

Because pregnant women cannot ride horses , there was a selection pressure to breed horses who have a pheromone that block female dominance pheromones , especially since females have to weigh more because of fat-reserve considerations .

Outside a farming environment , horses will sculpt their riders as much as the riders are sculpting them .

Small Mongolian ponies , small Mongolians .

This is why alpha-males like horses and horse-dominated societies were able to conquer and keep matriarchies .

Note the effect of the pheromones on women riders . Androgeny .
On males it becomes extreme blockage of oestrogen . It seems like a surge of male hormones , but it is just an imbalance . (If too much male hormones , the men just kill their horses )

This is why the auto-mobile had such a big sociological effect . No horses , so the men became more effeminate .

Want to be Lean and Mean ?
Sniff Horse sweat pheromone .
Perfumiers take note .


The other leg of the human-horse-dog triumvirate .
Dogs accept female pack-leaders and have evolutionary reasons for blocking horse inhibitions of human female pheromones .

While the males are away , the females look after and rely on the dogs .
(The reason why Mongols ride from yurt to yurt: they are too scared of the dogs.)

With dogs around , the male testosterone activity is ameliorated . This is a well known effect , especially if horses are around .

Hence the female love of lap-dogs . They are actually quite ferocious , and exude large amounts of pheromones that soothes the savage male breast .

Your attention is drawn to the Pekinese lapdog , which has had a disproportionately large effect on human history .

If this sounds convoluted , it is because this is exactly how this type of bio-system operates : by inhibitions of inhibitions of inhibitions ,etc .

A Napoleon , Emperor of India

Andre Willers
18 Feb 2007

Synopsis :

A small tweak in history would have resulted in a totally different world , where India and possibly China were Napoleonic and the world Wars never happened .

(See Appendix A below for criteria .)

The threads:

It is may 15th , 1768 at Versailles .
Corsica , nominally a Genoese territory , but de facto independent under General Paoli , is signed over to France for settlement of various debts .

The French , smarting under the losses to England incurred in North America , India and especially Quiberon Bay in 1759 , is determined to have a stepping stone in the Mediterranean . They send a large force under Comte de Vaux .

Opposing them is Paoli and a ragtag of guerilla fighters . Among them is Carlo Buonaparte and his 19 year-old wife , Letizia (nee Ramolino ) , both minor nobility of Italian descent .

Carlo Buonaparte is a charming , spendthrift , intelligent man of large enthusiasms , but little application . Letizia has a will of steel and iron teeth for everybody except her husband .

The main French force crush the resistance in 1769 . Letizia , 6 months pregnant with Napoleon , has joined her husband from the beginning .

The French achieve a political settlement with Paoli , whereby he would go into voluntary exile to England , together with his intransigent lieutenants . ( He had good contacts via the author Boswell )

Large pensions are promised . It is cheaper to pay troublemakers to go away than to have a prolonged vendetta action .

The crux-point :

Carlo Buonaparte wanted to go with Paoli to England . He had studied (and dropped out) of universities in Italy , and liked the city life .

Something changed his mind . The results of his staying is well known . We will now examine what would have happened if he and his family had gone to England .

Letizia would have gone with him , regardless that she was 6 months pregnant . Napoleon would have been born an English citizen , not French .

He would never have been offered an active officer’s commission because of his dubious political background .

He would almost certainly have ended up in India in the British East India Company . This is where young men at the time went to make their fortunes .

( Letizia said to Napoleon , urging him to forget Corsica (which he had nearly wrested into independence when he was twentythree) :
“Now France is ablaze – it is a noble bonfire , my son , and worth the risk of being burnt.” )

Napoleon and Wellington would have been colleagues , being the same age and united against the old fogeys of corruption and incompetence .

What a combination !

They would have set the east ablaze !

After conquering India and all desirable neighbouring parts , Napoleon’s ambitions would have pushed him to at least vice-royalty , then Emperor of India .

It is doubtful whether Wellington would have followed him in this . His Anglo-Irish roots were too deep .

But there would have been very little that England could have done about it . England already had the experience of losing valued colonies in North America . As long as Napoleon just kept Europe stirred up (divide and conquer) and kept his main energies confined to the East , they would let him be .

Would he have invaded China (a la Grande armee 1812) ?
Probably . But the outcome would have been different . China has no killer winters and areas can be held piecemeal .

In Europe nationalism would not have taken such deep root . The Germanies would not unify . Social unease would be intense because of stratification . But overthrowing the state by armed revolution in this world would not be possible . France would be deeply divided , something like Germany after 1945 in our timeline .

There would be large-scale emigration from France to the US . The US civil war would probably not happen . I have no hard proof of this , just the feeling millions of starving French peasants (ie those that would have been killed in the wars of our timeline) flooding into Louisiana , Quebec and the American south would have changed their perceptions of the problems facing them .

The powerblocs would be Britain , Russia , Napoleonic East and US .
The industrialization of China and Japan would occur much earlier than in our timeline . The presence of the Napoleonic powerbloc (ie not western ) would force a ally-development , instead of exploitation .

Especially , if , as is likely , Napoleon appreciated the importance of mass-produced spectacles . It is the sort of thing that he would notice . The importance of this point cannot be overstressed . No eastern state or political system has survived the introduction of glasses for all . Literacy means little if you cannot make out the ideograms after age 35 . Fine machining likewise .

Essentially , a technological civilization is impossible for humans unless they have glasses . So there .

Would a WWI be possible in this timeline?

In our timeline , French capital fueling Russian industrialization circa 1890-1914 threatened Germany and Britain . Especially sensitive were certain very high-return British investments by politicians in China (ie Opium) being threatened by cheaper capital from Russia . There was also great concern in the upper classes about over-population . The British (Lord Grey) formulated the expansion of the old “divide and conquer” strategy whereby Germany would be forced into war . A lukewarm support of France (like the initial retreat of British Expeditionary Forces in 1914 ) allowed the European adversaries to bleed themselves to death . Kitcheners volunteer army was not foreseen . They torpedoed him after Somme . It worked , but t’was a Pyrrhic victory .

In the other timeline , French capital would have been replaced by British capital in Russia . The US capital growth ( by now heavily Franco-German) would have suffered accordingly .

The special understandings would be Anglo-Russian , US-French . Napoleonic East would play them off against each other .

A meat-grinder war like WWI would be impossible , since both Anglo-
Russian and US-French eastern flanks would be vulnerable to Napoleonic East .(The Ottoman Empire would long been subsumed) . The Austro-Hungarian Empire would (as usual) been the hotbed of espionage , goings-on and other humans having a glorious time .


Appendix A
Criteria for estimating crux-points in alternate histories.

See history as a relief terrain map with length and breadth and height .
The height is the probability of an event . The length and breadth dimensions of the map is necessary to describe the possibilities .

See why three dimensions like this are necessary and sufficient to describe any number of dimensions which do not have singularities (and even some that do!)

A good approximation is that the individual is part of the weave of the map , but this is difficult for persons with identifiable viewpoints to understand .

A second approximation is to see the individual as a point (ping-pong ball if you will) moving over the landscape and interacting with it .

Take Napoleon .
The criteria for success here is for a very energetic ball hopping all over the place . If it lands anywhere , it rolls uphill .
This translates in human terms to be certain of yourself , and tell everybody you meet that . Meet a lot of people (be energetic) . Some are certain to be impressed . Peter’s principle means that many people in hierarchical positions are incompetent and uncertain what to do . This is especially true in periods of rapid change (like revolutions , etc) .

Some seeds will fail , others bear fruit .

Individuals who can do this well and consistently , have high ridges on the probability landscape .

A 20-20 hind vision here helps . A pathway that enables Napoleon to get to India with some legitimacy , is high ridge . Napoleon thrived on chaos. Hence I judged the probabilities as a high-ridge fork .

ppendix V

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