Monday, September 16, 2013

ARKstorm Arizona 2013

ARKstorm Arizona 2013

Andre Willers
16 Sep 2013
Synopsis :
An Atmospheric River 1000 storm hit Arizona in 2013 . Very heavy rain for about 7 months .
Discussion :
1.The present ( 2013) floods were warned (see Appendix A below) , but as usual nothing was done .
Even though something similar had occurred in 2010 .

2.Reminiscent of New Orleans flooding ( explicitly warnings in  National Geographic were ignored .)

Plus la change...

3. An interesting aside :

Can the Ogalalla Aquifer be recharged by ARKstorms ?
And if so , can ARKstorms be steered to these areas ? (See Appendix B)
Ogalalla Aquifer .
“One of the world's largest aquifers, it underlies an area of approximately 174,000 mi² (450,000 km²) in portions of eight states: (South Dakota, Nebraska,Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas). 

“About 27 percent of the irrigated land in the United States overlies the aquifer, which yields about 30 percent of the ground water used for irrigation in the United States. Since 1950, agricultural irrigation has reduced the saturated volume of the aquifer by an estimated 9%. Depletion is accelerating, with 3% lost between 2001 and 2008 alone. Certain aquifer zones are now empty; these areas will take over 100,000 years to replenish naturally through rainfall.
The aquifer system supplies drinking water to 82 percent of the 2.3 million people (1990 census) who live within the boundaries of the High Plains study area.[2]

4.What to expect .
ARKstorms used to have a period of about 200 years (see Appendix B) . But global warming has shortened the period , especially in certain areas like around Boulder , Colorado . There were similar floods in 2010 .

This effect will be non-linear , as the dimensions of the Atmospheric River does not change much , but the amount of moisture in it is much greater  . (Rough guestimate about 20% increase per 1C increase . This follows from doubling of rate of molecular activity for every 10C temperature increase . A fairly good rule of thumb).

Roughly 2% extra moisture for every 0.1C increase .
This is an awful lot of moisture . The extra weight of the moisture pushes the Atmospheric River along faster .

Satellite storms shepherd the extra moisture into the Atmospheric River . The moisture content increases by a power of 3 .

More moisture is delivered faster -> more frequent ARKstorms .
I leave the calculation of decreased periods per degree C as an exercise for the dear reader .

5.ARKstorms are one of Gaia’s little tricks to flatten temperature variations .
All that extra heat gets dumped in the land-interiors . This gives rise to really big thunderstorms , and energy is dissipated into ground and ionosphere . The ionospheric energy particles gets removed by the solar wind . A neat little energy sink .

Its main scenarios also show that temperatures could rise by up to about 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100. The drafts devote little space to explaining the hiatus in rising temperatures.

Temperatures have so far gained by about 0.8 C and many scientists say that warming is already causing more extreme weather, ranging from heatwaves to downpours.
6. A rough calculation of expected periods for ARKstorms in Boulder , Colorado  after 0.8 C rise in Pacific Ocean temperatures .
An Atmospheric river rushes over Los Angelos , is pinched up the Colorado gorge (est ¼ decrease in three dimensions) , and drops down at Boulder . This heats up the mess and leads to really big thunderstorms .
Very heavy , continuous rain occurs . Like a sausage machine .
Est period ~200/(1.008)^3/(4^3) ~ 3 years
The last similar floods occurred in 2010 . So , expect floods again in 2017-2018 .
7.For a 5C rise , Est period ~ 200/(1.05)^3/(4^3) ~ 2.7 years . Near continuous floods .

Sell it to LA .


Appendix A

The Landfall and Inland Penetration of a Flood-Producing Atmospheric River in Arizona. Part I: Observed Synoptic-Scale, Orographic, and Hydrometeorological Characteristics
Paul J. Neiman and F. Martin Ralph
Physical Sciences Division, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado
Benjamin J. Moore, Mimi Hughes, and Kelly M. Mahoney
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, Colorado
Jason M. Cordeira
National Research Council, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, Colorado
Michael D. Dettinger
U.S. Geological Survey, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a dominant mechanism for generating intense wintertime precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. While studies over the past 10 years have explored the impact of ARs in, and west of, California’s Sierra Nevada and the Pacific Northwest’s Cascade Mountains, their influence on the weather across the intermountain west remains an open question. This study utilizes gridded atmospheric datasets, satellite imagery, rawinsonde soundings, a 449-MHz wind profiler and global positioning system (GPS) receiver, and operational hydrometeorological observing networks to explore the dynamics and inland impacts of a landfalling, flood-producing AR across Arizona in January 2010. Plan-view, cross-section, and back-trajectory analyses quantify the synoptic and mesoscale forcing that led to widespread precipitation across the state. The analyses show that a strong AR formed in the lower midlatitudes over the northeastern Pacific Ocean via frontogenetic processes and sea surface latent-heat fluxes but without tapping into the adjacent tropical water vapor reservoir to the south. The wind profiler, GPS, and rawinsonde observations document strong orographic forcing in a moist neutral environment within the AR that led to extreme, orographically enhanced precipitation. The AR was oriented nearly orthogonal to the Mogollon Rim, a major escarpment crossing much of central Arizona, and was positioned between the high mountain ranges of northern Mexico. High melting levels during the heaviest precipitation contributed to region-wide flooding, while the high-altitude snowpack increased substantially. The characteristics of the AR that impacted Arizona in January 2010, and the resulting heavy orographic precipitation, are comparable to those of landfalling ARs and their impacts along the west coasts of midlatitude continents.
Received: July 11, 2012; Final Form: September 6, 2012

Appendix B
This post was published to Andre's Why at 08:57:23 PM 2013/02/09
Atmospheric Rivers

Andre Willers
9 Feb 2013
“A River runs over it” with apologies to Norman Maclean .
Water just won’t behave . Now it clumps up in Atmospheric Rivers , dumping biblical floods at semi-random .
Discussion :
1.Described in Hammerstein II folklore :
Ol' man river,
Dat ol' man river
He mus'know sumpin'
But don't say nuthin',
He jes'keeps rollin'
He keeps on rollin' along.”
Atmospheric river
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

An atmospheric river is a narrow corridor or filament of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere. Atmospheric rivers consist of narrow bands of enhanced water vapor transport, typically along the boundaries between large areas of divergent surface air flow, including some frontal zones in association with extratropical cyclones that form over the oceans.[1][2][3][4]
The term was originally coined by researchers Reginald Newell and Yong Zhu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the early 1990s, to reflect the narrowness of the moisture plumes involved.[1][3][5] Atmospheric rivers are typically several thousand kilometers long and only a few hundred kilometers wide, and a single one can carry a greater flux of water than the Earth's largest river, the Amazon River.[2] There are typically 3-5 of these narrow plumes present within a hemisphere at any given time.
Atmospheric rivers have a central role in the global water cycle. On any given day, atmospheric rivers account for over 90% of the global meridional (north-south) water vapor transport, yet they cover less than 10% of the Earth's circumference.[2]
They also are the major cause of extreme precipitation events which cause severe flooding in many mid-latitude, westerly coastal regions of the world, including the West Coast of North America,[6][7][8][9] western Europe,[10][11][12] and the west coast of North Africa.[3]

3.Satellite Storms :
One is reminded of the Rings of Saturn , where satellite moons smooth out cyclone-type perturbations .
Satellite cyclones similarly shape and steer atmospheric rivers .
4.That is why the atmospheric river is so narrow and has such an incredible amount of water .
5. The satellite storms both steer it and feed it (the same process ,actually)

6.Steering the Atmospheric River :
At present moment , the satellite storms are allowed to occur at random . This gives catastrophic storms in California every 200 years (measured over the last 2 000 years) . See or
7.Humans have both the technology and the knowledge to steer satellite storms so that Atmospheric Rivers are diverted into Atmospheric Deltas . (Which is where they normally are . Your normal rainfall) .
All they have to do is to prevent a certain class of randomness in the satellite storms .
A disruption , in other words , not even having to know what you are doing .
Any disruption is better than none . The odds favour you .
8. You are fairly safe on an East Coast , unless you have a large island offshore . This disrupts the satellite steering storms and leads to the Atmospheric River veering from east to west . Like Mozambique (Madagascar) , China(Japan) , etc .

9.Global Warming :
The contraption is driven by evaporation of water . Heat . The rule of thumb is that any 10 degrees centigrade rise doubles the chemical activity . ie 100% . A simple linear extrapolation gives a 1 C increase an increase of 1% in moisture in the atmosphere . Not too bad if it is spread evenly .
But it is concentrated among the atmospheric rivers . You are talking about billions of tons of water . Right over your head . Looking for an excuse to drop in .
10. West African Coast :
Angola , Namibia and Western Cape .
These are western coasts . As the tropics heat up , and especially the mouth of the Amazon also heats up due to deforestation , expect major dumping of water-loads on north-south mountain ranges . Expect the Makgadigadi sea to refill . Some tectonic shifts might close the Victoria Falls again .

11. Methane release in the Arctic .
The heat is in the vapour . Atmospheric Rivers mean only parts (10%-33%) of the arctic tundra gets heated . The rest remains frozen . But the heated part gets the publicity .
This goes for all the so-called human measurement systems . The real warming is about 1/3 of what is reported , because they do not take the heat-transport in atmospheric rivers into account .

12. What can humans do about it ?
You just have to watch and see if an Atmospheric River is forming , then disrupt some of it’s satellite storms .
There are many ways to do this. The easiest and cheapest is simply to dump thousands of tons of pig offal to the north of the atmospheric river . Remember , you only have to disrupt the system .
It’s default is an atmospheric delta . The organic material will change the satellite storms .
Get Astronomers to help you . This is exactly like shepherd moons of rings . The maths will help you .
13 . I never expected them in a ecological role .

14. You are talking about another rainstorm , or a $725 Bn flood damage .
15 . Your choice .
16 . ARKstorm
An ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1000 Storm) is a hypothetical but scientifically realistic "superstorm" scenario developed and published by theUnited States Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP). It describes an extreme storm that may impact much of Californiacausing up to $725 billion in damages and repair (most caused by flooding), and affect a quarter of California's homes. The event would be similar to intense California storms which occurred in 1861 and 1862.[1] The name "ARkStorm" means "Atmospheric River (AR) 1000 (k)." The name was created as a way of quantifying the magnitude of west coast storms. It also meant to be drawn as a parallel to the biblical Noah's Ark story.

17. Yakkity-yak .
Don’t rely on yaks in global warming .

Appendix C
This was in 2001 , four years before Katrina Hurricane in 2005 drowned New Orleans
Drowning New Orleans [Preview]
A major hurricane could swamp New Orleans under 20 feet of water, killing thousands. Human activities along the Mississippi River have dramatically increased the risk, and now only massive reengineering of southeastern Louisiana can save the city

By Mark Fischetti

Why Save a Sinking City?
The boxes are stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large, windowless room. Inside them are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big, slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under 20 feet of water. "As the water recedes," says Walter Maestri, a local emergency management director, "we expect to find a lot of dead bodies."

New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh--an area the size of Manhattan--will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl, trapping one million people inside and another million in surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at Louisiana State University (L.S.U.), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers, predict that more than 100,000 people could die. The body bags wouldn't go very far.
This article was originally published with the title Drowning New Orleans.

No comments: