Friday, April 24, 2009

Cause and Effect

Cause and Effect
Andre Willers

22 Apr 2009

Iterative feedback in Aristotelian systems .

Synopsis :

Humans using Aristotelian logic have major problems with cause and effect .

Discussion :

Humans see event chains :

CauseA(1) -> EffectB(1) = CauseA(2) -> EffectB(2) = CauseA(3) -> EffectB(3) = CauseA(4) -> EffectB(4) …

Note CauseA(2) = EffectB(1) . The effect is the cause in the next step of the chain .

The Aristotelian question is whether A causes B . This can barely be answered in those terms if there is no feedback .

But if there is feedback (ie CauseA(n) = EffectB(n+x) ) , then the whole question becomes a meaningless noise .

It is impossible to logically disentangle causes and effects .

But humans persist (especially their command-and-control systems (ie politicians and scientists) )

A question such as " Will raising the interest rates lower the inflation rate ? " is a meaningless noise . The historical success rate of this policy has been far less than 50% .

A factory owner using this approach will go bankrupt (and many have : see Goldratt and the demise of the conglomerates)

The problem can and has been solved . By the military.

Or use "New Tools"

These problems have been seen and resolved , albeit on a piecewise basis .

The failure lies in the academic establishment . Sloppy thought and self-interest .

They have frozen out all new thought . Most good scientists do not even bother to publish in peer-reviewed journals any more (see )

I can predict that economic policy in future will be more and more influenced by the military-industrial complex . This last economic crash can be directly traced to incorrect theories by academics , who never ran a business in their life . And when they did , they nearly collapsed the whole system . Not once or twice , but a whopping three times (LTCM , dotcom , credit)

Or to put it in military terms , the military is inside the academic control loop .

So , are we in for a rerun of the later-Roman Empire ?

Actually , not so bad . The US Army is about the last really democratic institution left in the country .

They accept nearly anyone (ie the barbarians in their cities) and immigrants and turn them into disciplined citizens .

They may bear arms .

The Army controls a large part of the GDP .

This last idiocy means they will be influencing not only R&D , but also economic policy .

A silent coup .

The politicians cannot understand cause and effect any more .

In a nuclear armed country with overkill capability , this is extremely dangerous .

So , young man , forget Yale and Harvard . Go west . Go to West Point .

Andre .

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