Thursday, April 30, 2009

Financial Crisis 30 Apr 2009

Financial Crisis 30 Apr 2009
Andre Willers
30 Apr 2009

Synopsis :
The movement of the Hysterical Focus from the Financial Crisis to the Mexican-flu Crisis enables the measures put into place to ameliorate the Financial Crisis to take effect without too much further interference from the Focus .

Discussion :
The Hysterical Focus .
The Friendly Giant .
The strong point of freedom-systems is the independent , multi-faceted , in-force approach to problems .
The weak point is the inability to concentrate forces when needed .
The evolutionary meme that evolved in the surviving societies was the Hysterical Focus .

"Hysterical" because all items outside the focus are excluded .
Humans are a hysterical species . Watch any group of apes in the zoo . This has evolved into a strong point .
They and the media have a very limited range . That is the whole point . (The Schwerpunkt , to be exact.)

"Focus" because all the resources of the society are mobilized on this particular problem .
(Think columns of armour advancing independently , then converging on the target co-ordinated by urgent command signals .
Blitz-krieg . The Hysterical Focus .)

This is very powerful , especially after mass-media was invented .
Anything in the Hysterical Focus gets amplified , examined from every angle . The whole resources of the society gets mobilized . Huge resources are allocated .

Long-term administrators use it to secure funding . Politicians , fashionistas and other various sundry hangers-on try to catch some of the largesse .
Media owners and journalists have a conceit that they steer the process , forgetting that they are just a part of the feedback process .

The Hysterical Focus has this teensy-weensy drawback : if it stays too long on one spot , the cure is worse than the disease .
The process lacks proper feedback-control safeguards . Something like an immune system overreacting (think SARS flu)

Normally , the Hysterical Focus moves on rapidly , as the short attention span of it's components (humans and media) is exhausted . Always a new Paris Hilton .
See "The sources of the Nile"

The Financial Crisis was over in Oct 2008 (see previous posts on "Fin*******" in )
But the continued focus was beginning to harm recovery efforts by Apr 2009 .
Politicians (like Bush jr with 9/11) tried to keep the focus on the thing that gave them power , not realizing that more power is available by moving the focus on . Notice the adept use Clinton made of the effect .

So , the Mexican flu comes as a relief to the system . The Hysterical Focus has shifted to something that can be handled (since it has been handled before ) . Enormous resources will be allocated , careers will be made , institutes founded , bureaucracies initiated . The usual suspects .

The economic system will quietly rebound . The professionals would have gathered enough support to follow through on the enormous energies released on the problem while it was at the Hysterical Focus .

This is happening as we speak .

The economic consequences of Mexican Flu .
1.Food-production and distribution : nil .
Most food production not on subsistence level is done by machines with a few operators . Distribution is done by containerized holders or ships .

2.Others : these might even benefit , as costs are cut by limiting unnecessary travel .

3.The Losers: Third world countries . The tourism industry .

4.Big Winners : the gene-technology industry . A general flu vaccine was at the start of FDA certification . This will be fast-tracked . Vaccines in general might shift into a subsidiary Focus .

5. Short-term effects :
Barely a hiccup . Even if the mortality rate is 50% .
About 80% of the labour force is unnecessary to produce all the goods for society . The credit crunch means that they are not necessary for the consumer side , either .

6. Long-term effects : acceleration of change towards the singularity , as bio- and nano- safeguards are relaxed

The Hysterical Focus as an Artificial Intelligence .
This would be valid if there were boundary conditions . Even as is , I would classify it as AI(3.05) .
See "Artificial Intelligence"
It has one of the primary characteristics : elements of it (ie humans) cannot understand it or manipulate it successfully .
Infinite series like the reserve arguments are applicable , but is doubtful in steering . The system is self-aware to a degree (ie all those hardnosed editors , businessmen and politicians .)

This leads to some fascinating examples :

History and Power .
The Hysterical Focus is the fount of Power for humans . They fight and scheme to get there , then it burns them to frazzle .
Their problem was that they could not get out of the focus . It followed them .
Recent examples : LouisIV , Napoleon , Stalin , Hitler , Mao.
They were forced into playing the roles at the apex of power that they crafted themselves into .
See "Competition and Co-operation"
It turned them crazy . They were at most AI(2.25) , trying to handle problems AI(3.1) would be pressed for .

Those who managed to duck by passing the buck : (that we know of)
Washington (who did it while leaving a legacy) . Not bad for a farmer . Much underrated .
Kemal Ataturk (who showed that it can be done in the modern age)
Wellington (the Turtle-finger defence .) . Hunker down and show the Focus the Finger .

Washington was more effective , but Ataturk 's job was more difficult . Both were lucky . But Ataturk made most of his own luck by manipulating long-term probabilities .

Still , Washington managed to set up a system where the Hysterical Focus passes on fairly regularly (by declining the Kingship)
Ataturk did the same .

What does this have to do with the Financial Crisis on 30 Apr 2009 ?
Why , everything .
The systems are accustomed to a moving Hysterical Focus . Boundary conditions are slowly seeping in as the system evolves towards AI(4) . The USA is more comfortable with Turkey as an ally than with most European countries . (Their founders , Washington and Ataturk , were brothers under the skin.)

A quiet Spine is emerging : USA and Turkey , with Mexico and India as junior partners . High-tech with man-power . And a liveable compromise with Islam .

The whole Middle East is kept alive by US subsidies to Egypt ( Ramses would never have gotten into this fix!) .
If they cease this , Egypt has a choice of seizing the Saudi-Arabian oilfields or starving . Attacking Israel is not even an option .
But this window is rapidly passing ( "Negative Pressure : An Important Update ." ) .
July to Aug 2009 will see a big change .

The Hysterical Focus will pass to the Middle East , an ever popular destination . Why , if it did not exist , one might think that it would need to be invented .

The world economy would quietly knit itself back together .
The Bright Star has passed . For now .

The Lidless Eye .
Tolkien must have had some acquaintance with accountancy firms .

They see everything but observe nothing .

But the random Hysterical Focus overrides all . This threat will concentrate many minds wonderfully .

Isn't randomness a wonderful thing ?
The wicked does not flee when nobody pursues , but they damn'well do if there is a finite probability that the Lidless Eye will turn in their direction . Especially if the full force is at random .

Can you see the Lidless Eye sighing for the days of Mordor ?
At least it would have known what to with the Wizards of Enron .


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