Andre Willers
4 Jan 2013
Synopsis :
Strategically , the Information Age is like the Light Horse Nomads vs the Knights-and-Castles defense , or Navy vs Outpost system .
Discussion :
1.Hackers , pedophiles and similar nasties can strike from anywhere in the world (Huns , Mongols ) . Or a deepwater navy .
2.A Defensive Structure (Castle or Outpost = computer security) is insufficient . A striking force (Knights or Counter Navy) is also needed .
Else the attackers can dismantle the defences at their leisure .
3. Aggressive Counter Hacking . (Knights , Navy)
See http://www.giac.org/paper/gsec/3538/aggressive-counter-hacking-past-present-future/105759
4. What happened historically ?
Even where they won (China) , the Ming rebellion eventually destroyed the Mongols after centuries of bloody warfare .
In the West , the Castles-and-Knights defense held . (Barely )
In both cases , it resulted in tighter centralised control , as agricultural and co-operative systems maximised their advantages .
In the Naval case , it ended with the Glorious Revolution of 1688 . The naval empires (English and Dutch) amalgamated and carved up the world between them , squeezing out other competitors in the succeeding century (1759)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glorious_Revolution
The Glorious Revolution,[a] also called the Revolution of 1688, was the overthrow of King James II of England (James VII of Scotland and James II of Ireland) by a union of English Parliamentarians with the Dutch stadtholder William III of Orange-Nassau (William of Orange). William's successful invasion of England with a Dutch fleet and army led to his ascending of the English throne as William III of England jointly with his wifeMary II of England.
An Interesting aside :
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Westminster_(1674) . Lots of skulduggery leading up to the Great Merger . the Dutch realized they were too small to survive and needed a Big Brother . Hopefully the same common sense still holds . As I said , they survived for a long time and will cut their losses if forced to .
5.The same is happening today , only faster.
See Appendix IA .
The three major knights (DARPA , Russian Champions , Chinese Red Army) already have de-facto cooperation agreements about Lawless Nomads .
6.What does mean for Freedom of Information and the Internet ?
While the Internet might have started as a network to bypass damage , it has been undone by it's success . A few router farms have grown to handle the traffic , and they are vulnerable . But more telling , the Knights (like Darpa) are putting controls on the wild elements . Using aggressive counters .
Look what happened to Iran's nuclear program .
Not exactly a New World Order , but heading there .
Good thing or bad thing ?
Who knows . But from the history example , a major World Unitary Understanding is inevitable , has indeed already happened .
7.What about Europe ?
Sigh . See Appendix IA .
Clutching all , they stand to lose all .
"Oh my daughter , oh my ducats"
Their window of opportunity (especially the Dutch) is rapidly closing . An Ostrum Deal can still be made . But they will have to get a move on .
Brussels is trying to recreate the old Roman Empire model . Ostrum systems are too formidable competitors in the Information Age .
A Mega-Merger anyone ?
The first knight that marries the distressed maiden will dominate till the Singularity .
Andre
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Appendix I A
Bilderbergers : SuperHeroes or SuperVillains?
Andre Willers
11 Dec 2012
"Give me chastity and continence , but not yet." St Augustine
Synopsis:
Humans act in irresponsible ways , threatening their future survival . They know this , but expect some outside agency (SuperHero , God , Technology , etc) to save them from themselves .
Discussion :
1. I use the term Bilderbergers as a convenient label for the Interest group of capitalists concerned about the long-term survival of their descendants , and the concommittant plebeians .
2.Origin :
The Lowlands of North-Western Europe (present Holland , Belgium , Flanders) did not de-civilize or de-populate at the fall of the Western Roman Empire . Ie , Roman-Dutch Law , technological advancement in powertools (windmills , weaving) , sailing , commerce , etc .
See any Economic History textbook .
This laid the foundations of structures like the VOC , the Great Amalgamation with England (1688 Velvet Revolution- see Ferguson) , Limited Liability Companies , Stock Exchanges , etc .
Large capital concentrations that used technological advances , but under controlled conditions .
Then Jethro Tull and his Planter happened in 1700 AD . There was no coherent policy . The pulse of wealth created more pulses of wealth and Europe descended into a welter of war that has not stopped to this day .
In this process , technologies were created and used that threatens the ecosystem everybody depends on .
Like sitting on a branch while sawing it off . And paying bonuses to those who saws fastest .
Insane .
A typical Tragedy of the Commons , you say .
The Bilderbergers at present have no coherent strategy . They are but a bunch of very rich persons worried about the survival and legacy for their descendants , but without much idea what to do about it (except dominance , a proven failed strategy – cf Napoleon , Arab spring , etc ) .
Far from being the Masters of the Universe , they are a group with wildly divergent interests , with no coherent strategy , in competition with the Russians , Chinese and DARPA . At serious risk .
3.Ostrum – an unlikely SuperHeroine
A way out of the Tragedy of the Commons .
But it needs some clout (that pesky para 8 – see Appendix II)
A proven strategy .
3.Organizations like China nad Russia and DARPA are already applying it . Hence the high growth rates .
4.Another one is DARPA (see Appendix I) . The west's counter to USSR's Science Cities . Controlled openness won . Notice how quickly the Chinese copied it . A winning strategy .
5.Europe is trying the same with Bilderbergers .
But they need to take some lessons from Ms Ostrum . This should not be so onerous , as many sub-systems in their civilization are already using the Ostrum Principles . A Quiet Revolution .
6. Heroes or villains ?
The power of free information and capital cannot be gainsaid , but the excesses of sociopaths in control of major corporations like Enron cannot be countenanced .
The trick is to balance them .
7. The SuperHeroes are sitting this one out . Humans can , for once , solve their own problems .
But I suppose the Chinese , DARPA or Bilderbergers will do it for them if they cannot even ensure their own survival .
8.An interesting aside :
Jungian prescience in the 1930's would be mass hysteria like Godzilla (US bombing of Japan 1945) , or Frankenstein in early 1800's (automation) , vampires in late 1900's (AI's) , SuperHeroes 1900' s (Oops! We messed up ! Save us ! But don't ask us to do anything .)
The SpiderMan meme ("With great power comes great responsibility" ) can be discussed at leisure with Genghis Khan before he lops of your head . Or a wizard of Enron before he shuts of the power , or a banker before he kicks you out on the street .
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed by the blood of tyrants and patriots . " Jefferson
Things are bubbling at the moment . It is for this exact reason that the supervillains would be inclined to be reasonable given a logical alternative to mutual destruction .
And if they are not logical ? Oh well .
9."Does anybody know what he is doing ?"
The heartfeld cry from the humans , acting like sheep .They blame everybody except themselves for the actions of their chosen representatives .
When their extinction looms , they suddenly realise their chains of debt and pay their obligation to Gaia by fertilizing the planet .
Overdrawn at Gaia's Bank and Casino .
And the enforcers are at the door .
(Maybe they can get a short-term , high-interest loan from those friendly Scientists)
10. Another interesting aside .
If the Bilderbergers don't get their act together , DARPA , the Russians and the Chinese will eat them alive . After being billionaires , they could easily end up labouring in the fields they used to own . (Happened during the last Great Disturbance (Napoleon)) .
11. Even another interesting aside : The Russian equivalent .
Vladimir Putin laid it out when he was still a lowly colonel in the KGB : Russian Champions (his term . State sponsored private enterprise . Basically the origin of the Oligarchs (same as Larry Ellison with Oracle)) . A DARPA recipe .
They are all using variants of the same Ostrum principles . Remember , Ostrum published in 1990 . All these systems developed after that . The Quiet Revolution . Something that actually worked .
12. Which brings us back to the Bilderbergers : they are busy losing . Far from getting a grip , they are being eaten alive by DARPA , Russia and Chinese . The mess in Europe is the death struggles of a system which could not adapt .
13. The end of the Roman Empire
Like a bump in the carpet , the Roman empire kept on resurfacing . Roman Catholic Church , Greek Orthodox , Dutch , Swiss . The Dutch have lasted the longest (2 000 years , not bad) . But I would not write them off yet . Another trick like the Great Merger with Britain in 1688 , but this time with
Russia, China or DARPA is quite within their capabilities . They have a lot to offer . And they are not under the gun . But they will lose if they continue the way they are going .
14. So much for the Bilderbergers .
We have merely swapped king log for wannabe king stork .
15.As the Singularity rolls in , a peasant can take satisfaction that as money is equalized , at least his money is equalized less . But long before that , he will have to get of his lazy ass and take charge of his or her own life .
16. Poor little rich men . The Bilderbergers are quite rightly running scared . None of the competing systems (especially the Russian ones) will have any mercy . As much mercy as what was shown them . What comes around . Oh Well , Ostrum left mercy for the religions .
17. Isn't history exciting ?
When I started writing this , I thought the Bilderbergers had the upper hand , but as the argument progressed I could see they are desperate . The Ostrum Principles are eating them alive . Literally . Taking away resources .
The Predators are called DARPA , Russia , Chinese , but all the same thing .
The Unity of Europe is dead . The Ostrum Principles works best on small scales .Except for that pesky para 8 . I thought the breakdown of Europe would lead to incessant warfare . This would have been true if not for the presence of three competing Ostrum Systems : DARPA , Russia , China .
Europe then classifies as a failed state , mainly due to the incompetency of its bureaucracy (Brussels)
The same thing that sunk the old Roman Empire . They never learn .
Expect some fancy footwork by the Dutch . Well , they have been doing this for at least 2 000 years and still going strong . Masters at betrayal .
So much for the Bilderburgers.
18. Controlled break-up up EU .
Greece and Italy as semi-autonomous provinces of China is quite possible . Their own currencies and economies , like hong Kong . Subject to Ostrum Principles . The probability is nearly unity . The command and Control economies cannot compete with Ostrum principles .
The Russian Champions (Oligarchs) and DARPA Champions will be right in there .
Greed and Stupidity will get its own reward .
And so the human dance goes .
Andre
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Appendix I
DARPA
"Creating and Preventing Strategic surprise"
Their Mission Statement for once is spot on .
To do this it needed more than control . It needed enthusiastic , well-rewarded open participation . But under it's control . The Recipe of an Ostrum System .
Note the successes of Oracle , Internet , GPS ,Siri , etc to mention only a few .
Also note the absence of former adversaries .
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Appendix II
A very short summation .
Professional and Ostrum .
Andre Willers
25 Nov 2012
Synopsis:
We analyse demands on the Professional's attention using Ostrum Metarules .
Discussion :
The eight actual metarules are in Appendix I .A below . Humans do not have the capability of grasping or seeing them all at once , so we will have to do them item-by-item .
Can humans actually "grow"" to encompass all the 27 Rules necessary and Sufficient to describe the Universes ? . Not difficult at all . They then create new Universes , but make them more interesting by pinching boundaries .
1.The Common Resource is all the Information Demanding systems wanting a portion of the Professional's attention .
2.Tragedy of the Commons variant .
Exploitation of the free information to the max , with attempts to inhibit certain channels . Doomed to failure . The resource is effectively infinite , because (A + ~A < Universum) . No constraint is possible in the long term .
Short term constraints are possible .
3.Network Theory :
"Small worlds" networks are the general human networks of pushing information . This simply means that most information is sent and handled by "close" nexi , but there are long-range neurons that carry information to other nexi (or mirror networks) .
4.First Pass on Overstimulation of Information :
Simply pass it on to onto the subsidiary networks , except for Amygdala Interrupts . (See Appendix II)
5. Second pass :
Correlations have been made at very low levels . Rethinks .
6. Third and n'th passes :
You get the drift . The system refines itself through feedback processes .
7.Predictive rewards :
This is where we get to the nitty-gritty of Ostrum Systems .
Any farming system , agricultural or not, foregoes present reward for future benefits . You have to get Oabout eight things right to make a living .
Thoe domain of dopamine-systems . Once you enter it , you cannot leave it .
8. Humans farm the noosphere the same as they farm the land . But that same pesky 8'th term disturbs things . The relationship to higher Beth(x) beings . The disturbance is built-in and unavoidable.
9. Osrtum managed to get 7/8 system rules independent of the observer . A significant accomplishment .
What does this mean ? Small scale systems can be predicted and manipulated .
10. This means you !
A Small thing , but my own .
Andre
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Appendix I
The only Game in town .
The Ostrum Game
Andre Willers
30 Oct 2011
"One Game shall bind them all ." , ( with apologies to Tolkien)
"This time , we know for sure the grass is greener somewhere"
"A Revolution , any Revolution."
Synopsis :
A Game for Grown-ups .
The Eight Ostrum Design Principles are Meta-rules that generate self-consistent sets of rules that encompasses competition , co-operation , catastrophe , hierarchies and other systems undreamt of , all between discrete , interacting , self-organising systems .
Your avatar can go from SecondLife to Simworld , to War Worlds , to any desired locale .
Reality becomes a subset .
Discussion :
1.An incredible amount of money can be made .While money still has some meaning .
Without too much work . See Para 8 in Appendix A
Each Game Company is a base nested institution .
They bind easily together , releasing a lot of energy and money .
Explosive Feedback Synergism .
A run-up to the Singularity .
2.Feedback between Games and Reality :
The Meta-rules make no differentiation between Game-characters and Real-characters .
Indeed , many Real-characters have been spun into Game-characters , and vice-versa .
Think Sherlock Holmes , MacGyver , Gauss , young Werther etc
See "mirror-neuron networks" , any soap opera , etc .
Real-life problems get treated the same way as Game problems . The more diverse and sophisticated the Game interactions become , the more effect on any real or Game system .
Eventually , they become undistinguishable as technology progresses .
3.The Grass is provably greener somewhere .
Long known as a wishful thinking fallacy , until Ostrum published the Design Principles in 1990 .
This was the trigger event of under-the-surface knowledge about Ostrum Rules building up .
Suddenly , it became possible .
A Phase-change in the noosphere occurred .
It meant that a Disaster of the Commons or an Empire was not inevitable . Grandchildren could survive .
WE CAN MAKE THE GRASS GREENER , EVEN IF WE HAVE TO PAINT IT ONE BLADE AT A TIME .
Enormous tensions began surfacing . These effects are still playing out now .
A really , really major Hysterical Focus started forming , and is still intensifying .
Now , are you surprised that 1990 was the year of huge revolutions , when the USSR collapsed ?
The Ostrum Game beat the Ring of Power .
And you have not seen anything yet .
The pace of Revolutions is intensifying .
A good thing , if Homo wishes to escape extinction .
4.Automating Ostrum Rules :
They might be Meta-rules , but they are still rules .
We can certainly write programs that can serve to guide past most of the pitfalls and suggest alternatives .
5.Multicellular Bodies as Commons :
We can certainly analyze bodies in terms of Commons . The Dear Reader will find many interesting things if he does that .
Note the emphasis on communication .
Talk to your body . Aloud . And listen in the silences in between .
Create a virtual body and note the interactions .
Use the Ostrum Design principles .
6.Singularity :
It is immediately obvious that humans are then not limited to Real biochemical definitions of personality . The emphasis on communication means that personalities are distributed across Real and Game spaces . The Game space personality segments are only limited by internal non-contradictory rules . That can be done via Ostrum Design principles .
Not exactly instantaneous , but I can intuit that the time can be calculated . It would be less than real time .
The putative developing system would have ethical constraints on abandoning Real-part personalities under Ostrum Rules .
Told you it would be kindler , gentler .
7.Phase Change :
The system has already undergone an irrevocable phase change in 1990 .
You can fast-forward the rest .
8.Did Ostrum know what she was unleashing ?
The Revolutionary aspects , nearly certainly .
In her quiet way , she is one of the greatest Revolutionaries in Homo Sapiens history . Worthy of being called a Matriarch .
The Singularity aspect is more uncertain . She certainly knew that she unleashed major fairness , but the phase-change in the Noosphere I do not know .
Still , a tour-de-force .
How do feel like being a pet of your avatar ?
Andre .
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Appendix A
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elinor_Ostrom
To quote from Wiki : (comments in brackets are my own ).
" Ostrom identifies eight "design principles" of stable local common pool resource management:[10]
- Clearly defined boundaries (effective exclusion of external un-entitled parties;
- Rules regarding the appropriation and provision of common resources that are adapted to local conditions; (Equal sharing of debts and rewards)
- Collective-choice arrangements that allow most resource appropriators to participate in the decision-making process; (Consensus decisions-no leveraged hierarchies)
- Effective monitoring by monitors who are part of or accountable to the appropriators; (Policing)
- A scale of graduated sanctions for resource appropriators who violate community rules; (Opportunity to learn from mistakes )
- Mechanisms of conflict resolution that are cheap and of easy access; (Fair and Fast Justice . See how Inquisitorial Justice systems like Chinese , French or Sharia does it.)
- Self-determination of the community recognized by higher-level authorities; (Autonomy within clearly defined levels . Something like a Federation.)
- In the case of larger common-pool resources,organization in the form of multiple layers of nested enterprises, with small local CPRs at the base level. (Clear and quick relations with others. A potential sticky point with states.)
Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action Ostrom, Elinor, Cambridge University Press, 1990 "
The most important book in the Twentieth Century .
Try to read it .
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- Rules regarding the appropriation and provision of common resources that are adapted to local conditions; (Equal sharing of debts and rewards)
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