Friday, January 04, 2013

Information Age Strategy

Andre Willers

4 Jan 2013

Synopsis :

Strategically , the Information Age is like the Light Horse Nomads vs the Knights-and-Castles defense , or Navy vs Outpost system .


Discussion :

1.Hackers , pedophiles and similar nasties can strike from anywhere in the world (Huns , Mongols ) . Or a deepwater navy .

2.A Defensive Structure (Castle or Outpost = computer security) is insufficient . A striking force (Knights or Counter Navy) is also needed .

Else the attackers can dismantle the defences at their leisure .

3. Aggressive Counter Hacking . (Knights , Navy)


4. What happened historically ?

Even where they won (China) , the Ming rebellion eventually destroyed the Mongols after centuries of bloody warfare .

In the West , the Castles-and-Knights defense held . (Barely )

In both cases , it resulted in tighter centralised control , as agricultural and co-operative systems maximised their advantages .


In the Naval case , it ended with the Glorious Revolution of 1688 . The naval empires (English and Dutch) amalgamated and carved up the world between them , squeezing out other competitors in the succeeding century (1759)

The Glorious Revolution,[a] also called the Revolution of 1688, was the overthrow of King James II of England (James VII of Scotland and James II of Ireland) by a union of English Parliamentarians with the Dutch stadtholder William III of Orange-Nassau (William of Orange). William's successful invasion of England with a Dutch fleet and army led to his ascending of the English throne as William III of England jointly with his wifeMary II of England.

An Interesting aside :

See . Lots of skulduggery leading up to the Great Merger . the Dutch realized they were too small to survive and needed a Big Brother . Hopefully the same common sense still holds . As I said , they survived for a long time and will cut their losses if forced to .


5.The same is happening today , only faster.

See Appendix IA .

The three major knights (DARPA , Russian Champions , Chinese Red Army) already have de-facto cooperation agreements about Lawless Nomads .

6.What does mean for Freedom of Information and the Internet ?

While the Internet might have started as a network to bypass damage , it has been undone by it's success . A few router farms have grown to handle the traffic , and they are vulnerable . But more telling , the Knights (like Darpa) are putting controls on the wild elements . Using aggressive counters .

Look what happened to Iran's nuclear program .

Not exactly a New World Order , but heading there .

Good thing or bad thing ?

Who knows . But from the history example , a major World Unitary Understanding is inevitable , has indeed already happened .


7.What about Europe ?

Sigh . See Appendix IA .

Clutching all , they stand to lose all .

"Oh my daughter , oh my ducats"

Their window of opportunity (especially the Dutch) is rapidly closing . An Ostrum Deal can still be made . But they will have to get a move on .

Brussels is trying to recreate the old Roman Empire model . Ostrum systems are too formidable competitors in the Information Age .


A Mega-Merger anyone ?


The first knight that marries the distressed maiden will dominate till the Singularity .





Appendix I A

Bilderbergers : SuperHeroes or SuperVillains?

Andre Willers

11 Dec 2012

"Give me chastity and continence , but not yet." St Augustine


Humans act in irresponsible ways , threatening their future survival . They know this , but expect some outside agency (SuperHero , God , Technology , etc) to save them from themselves .


Discussion :

1. I use the term Bilderbergers as a convenient label for the Interest group of capitalists concerned about the long-term survival of their descendants , and the concommittant plebeians .

2.Origin :

The Lowlands of North-Western Europe (present Holland , Belgium , Flanders) did not de-civilize or de-populate at the fall of the Western Roman Empire . Ie , Roman-Dutch Law , technological advancement in powertools (windmills , weaving) , sailing , commerce , etc .

See any Economic History textbook .

This laid the foundations of structures like the VOC , the Great Amalgamation with England (1688 Velvet Revolution- see Ferguson) , Limited Liability Companies , Stock Exchanges , etc .

Large capital concentrations that used technological advances , but under controlled conditions .

Then Jethro Tull and his Planter happened in 1700 AD . There was no coherent policy . The pulse of wealth created more pulses of wealth and Europe descended into a welter of war that has not stopped to this day .

In this process , technologies were created and used that threatens the ecosystem everybody depends on .

Like sitting on a branch while sawing it off . And paying bonuses to those who saws fastest .

Insane .

A typical Tragedy of the Commons , you say .

The Bilderbergers at present have no coherent strategy . They are but a bunch of very rich persons worried about the survival and legacy for their descendants , but without much idea what to do about it (except dominance , a proven failed strategy – cf Napoleon , Arab spring , etc ) .

Far from being the Masters of the Universe , they are a group with wildly divergent interests , with no coherent strategy , in competition with the Russians , Chinese and DARPA . At serious risk .

3.Ostrum – an unlikely SuperHeroine

A way out of the Tragedy of the Commons .

But it needs some clout (that pesky para 8 – see Appendix II)

A proven strategy .

3.Organizations like China nad Russia and DARPA are already applying it . Hence the high growth rates .

4.Another one is DARPA (see Appendix I) . The west's counter to USSR's Science Cities . Controlled openness won . Notice how quickly the Chinese copied it . A winning strategy .

5.Europe is trying the same with Bilderbergers .

But they need to take some lessons from Ms Ostrum . This should not be so onerous , as many sub-systems in their civilization are already using the Ostrum Principles . A Quiet Revolution .


6. Heroes or villains ?

The power of free information and capital cannot be gainsaid , but the excesses of sociopaths in control of major corporations like Enron cannot be countenanced .

The trick is to balance them .

7. The SuperHeroes are sitting this one out . Humans can , for once , solve their own problems .

But I suppose the Chinese , DARPA or Bilderbergers will do it for them if they cannot even ensure their own survival .


8.An interesting aside :

Jungian prescience in the 1930's would be mass hysteria like Godzilla (US bombing of Japan 1945) , or Frankenstein in early 1800's (automation) , vampires in late 1900's (AI's) , SuperHeroes 1900' s (Oops! We messed up ! Save us ! But don't ask us to do anything .)

The SpiderMan meme ("With great power comes great responsibility" ) can be discussed at leisure with Genghis Khan before he lops of your head . Or a wizard of Enron before he shuts of the power , or a banker before he kicks you out on the street .

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed by the blood of tyrants and patriots . " Jefferson

Things are bubbling at the moment . It is for this exact reason that the supervillains would be inclined to be reasonable given a logical alternative to mutual destruction .

And if they are not logical ? Oh well .


9."Does anybody know what he is doing ?"

The heartfeld cry from the humans , acting like sheep .They blame everybody except themselves for the actions of their chosen representatives .

When their extinction looms , they suddenly realise their chains of debt and pay their obligation to Gaia by fertilizing the planet .

Overdrawn at Gaia's Bank and Casino .

And the enforcers are at the door .

(Maybe they can get a short-term , high-interest loan from those friendly Scientists)


10. Another interesting aside .

If the Bilderbergers don't get their act together , DARPA , the Russians and the Chinese will eat them alive . After being billionaires , they could easily end up labouring in the fields they used to own . (Happened during the last Great Disturbance (Napoleon)) .

11. Even another interesting aside : The Russian equivalent .

Vladimir Putin laid it out when he was still a lowly colonel in the KGB : Russian Champions (his term . State sponsored private enterprise . Basically the origin of the Oligarchs (same as Larry Ellison with Oracle)) . A DARPA recipe .

They are all using variants of the same Ostrum principles . Remember , Ostrum published in 1990 . All these systems developed after that . The Quiet Revolution . Something that actually worked .


12. Which brings us back to the Bilderbergers : they are busy losing . Far from getting a grip , they are being eaten alive by DARPA , Russia and Chinese . The mess in Europe is the death struggles of a system which could not adapt .


13. The end of the Roman Empire

Like a bump in the carpet , the Roman empire kept on resurfacing . Roman Catholic Church , Greek Orthodox , Dutch , Swiss . The Dutch have lasted the longest (2 000 years , not bad) . But I would not write them off yet . Another trick like the Great Merger with Britain in 1688 , but this time with

Russia, China or DARPA is quite within their capabilities . They have a lot to offer . And they are not under the gun . But they will lose if they continue the way they are going .


14. So much for the Bilderbergers .

We have merely swapped king log for wannabe king stork .


15.As the Singularity rolls in , a peasant can take satisfaction that as money is equalized , at least his money is equalized less . But long before that , he will have to get of his lazy ass and take charge of his or her own life .


16. Poor little rich men . The Bilderbergers are quite rightly running scared . None of the competing systems (especially the Russian ones) will have any mercy . As much mercy as what was shown them . What comes around . Oh Well , Ostrum left mercy for the religions .


17. Isn't history exciting ?

When I started writing this , I thought the Bilderbergers had the upper hand , but as the argument progressed I could see they are desperate . The Ostrum Principles are eating them alive . Literally . Taking away resources .

The Predators are called DARPA , Russia , Chinese , but all the same thing .

The Unity of Europe is dead . The Ostrum Principles works best on small scales .Except for that pesky para 8 . I thought the breakdown of Europe would lead to incessant warfare . This would have been true if not for the presence of three competing Ostrum Systems : DARPA , Russia , China .

Europe then classifies as a failed state , mainly due to the incompetency of its bureaucracy (Brussels)

The same thing that sunk the old Roman Empire . They never learn .

Expect some fancy footwork by the Dutch . Well , they have been doing this for at least 2 000 years and still going strong . Masters at betrayal .


So much for the Bilderburgers.



18. Controlled break-up up EU .

Greece and Italy as semi-autonomous provinces of China is quite possible . Their own currencies and economies , like hong Kong . Subject to Ostrum Principles . The probability is nearly unity . The command and Control economies cannot compete with Ostrum principles .

The Russian Champions (Oligarchs) and DARPA Champions will be right in there .

Greed and Stupidity will get its own reward .


And so the human dance goes .




Appendix I


"Creating and Preventing Strategic surprise"

Their Mission Statement for once is spot on .

To do this it needed more than control . It needed enthusiastic , well-rewarded open participation . But under it's control . The Recipe of an Ostrum System .

Note the successes of Oracle , Internet , GPS ,Siri , etc to mention only a few .

Also note the absence of former adversaries .



Appendix II

A very short summation .

Professional and Ostrum .

Andre Willers

25 Nov 2012


We analyse demands on the Professional's attention using Ostrum Metarules .

Discussion :

The eight actual metarules are in Appendix I .A below . Humans do not have the capability of grasping or seeing them all at once , so we will have to do them item-by-item .


Can humans actually "grow"" to encompass all the 27 Rules necessary and Sufficient to describe the Universes ? . Not difficult at all . They then create new Universes , but make them more interesting by pinching boundaries .




1.The Common Resource is all the Information Demanding systems wanting a portion of the Professional's attention .

2.Tragedy of the Commons variant .

Exploitation of the free information to the max , with attempts to inhibit certain channels . Doomed to failure . The resource is effectively infinite , because (A + ~A < Universum) . No constraint is possible in the long term .

Short term constraints are possible .

3.Network Theory :

"Small worlds" networks are the general human networks of pushing information . This simply means that most information is sent and handled by "close" nexi , but there are long-range neurons that carry information to other nexi (or mirror networks) .

4.First Pass on Overstimulation of Information :

Simply pass it on to onto the subsidiary networks , except for Amygdala Interrupts . (See Appendix II)

5. Second pass :

Correlations have been made at very low levels . Rethinks .

6. Third and n'th passes :

You get the drift . The system refines itself through feedback processes .

7.Predictive rewards :

This is where we get to the nitty-gritty of Ostrum Systems .

Any farming system , agricultural or not, foregoes present reward for future benefits . You have to get Oabout eight things right to make a living .

Thoe domain of dopamine-systems . Once you enter it , you cannot leave it .


8. Humans farm the noosphere the same as they farm the land . But that same pesky 8'th term disturbs things . The relationship to higher Beth(x) beings . The disturbance is built-in and unavoidable.

9. Osrtum managed to get 7/8 system rules independent of the observer . A significant accomplishment .

What does this mean ? Small scale systems can be predicted and manipulated .

10. This means you !

A Small thing , but my own .



Appendix I

The only Game in town .


The Ostrum Game

Andre Willers

30 Oct 2011


"One Game shall bind them all ." , ( with apologies to Tolkien)

"This time , we know for sure the grass is greener somewhere"

"A Revolution , any Revolution."


Synopsis :

A Game for Grown-ups .

The Eight Ostrum Design Principles are Meta-rules that generate self-consistent sets of rules that encompasses competition , co-operation , catastrophe , hierarchies and other systems undreamt of , all between discrete , interacting , self-organising systems .

Your avatar can go from SecondLife to Simworld , to War Worlds , to any desired locale .

Reality becomes a subset .


Discussion :

1.An incredible amount of money can be made .While money still has some meaning .

Without too much work . See Para 8 in Appendix A

Each Game Company is a base nested institution .

They bind easily together , releasing a lot of energy and money .

Explosive Feedback Synergism .

A run-up to the Singularity .


2.Feedback between Games and Reality :

The Meta-rules make no differentiation between Game-characters and Real-characters .

Indeed , many Real-characters have been spun into Game-characters , and vice-versa .

Think Sherlock Holmes , MacGyver , Gauss , young Werther etc

See "mirror-neuron networks" , any soap opera , etc .


Real-life problems get treated the same way as Game problems . The more diverse and sophisticated the Game interactions become , the more effect on any real or Game system .

Eventually , they become undistinguishable as technology progresses .


3.The Grass is provably greener somewhere .

Long known as a wishful thinking fallacy , until Ostrum published the Design Principles in 1990 .

This was the trigger event of under-the-surface knowledge about Ostrum Rules building up .

Suddenly , it became possible .


A Phase-change in the noosphere occurred .


It meant that a Disaster of the Commons or an Empire was not inevitable . Grandchildren could survive .




Enormous tensions began surfacing . These effects are still playing out now .

A really , really major Hysterical Focus started forming , and is still intensifying .


Now , are you surprised that 1990 was the year of huge revolutions , when the USSR collapsed ?


The Ostrum Game beat the Ring of Power .


And you have not seen anything yet .


The pace of Revolutions is intensifying .

A good thing , if Homo wishes to escape extinction .


4.Automating Ostrum Rules :

They might be Meta-rules , but they are still rules .

We can certainly write programs that can serve to guide past most of the pitfalls and suggest alternatives .


5.Multicellular Bodies as Commons :

We can certainly analyze bodies in terms of Commons . The Dear Reader will find many interesting things if he does that .

Note the emphasis on communication .

Talk to your body . Aloud . And listen in the silences in between .

Create a virtual body and note the interactions .

Use the Ostrum Design principles .


6.Singularity :

It is immediately obvious that humans are then not limited to Real biochemical definitions of personality . The emphasis on communication means that personalities are distributed across Real and Game spaces . The Game space personality segments are only limited by internal non-contradictory rules . That can be done via Ostrum Design principles .


Not exactly instantaneous , but I can intuit that the time can be calculated . It would be less than real time .

The putative developing system would have ethical constraints on abandoning Real-part personalities under Ostrum Rules .

Told you it would be kindler , gentler .


7.Phase Change :

The system has already undergone an irrevocable phase change in 1990 .

You can fast-forward the rest .


8.Did Ostrum know what she was unleashing ?

The Revolutionary aspects , nearly certainly .

In her quiet way , she is one of the greatest Revolutionaries in Homo Sapiens history . Worthy of being called a Matriarch .


The Singularity aspect is more uncertain . She certainly knew that she unleashed major fairness , but the phase-change in the Noosphere I do not know .

Still , a tour-de-force .


How do feel like being a pet of your avatar ?


Andre .



Appendix A


To quote from Wiki : (comments in brackets are my own ).


" Ostrom identifies eight "design principles" of stable local common pool resource management:[10]

  1. Clearly defined boundaries (effective exclusion of external un-entitled parties;
    1. Rules regarding the appropriation and provision of common resources that are adapted to local conditions; (Equal sharing of debts and rewards)
    2. Collective-choice arrangements that allow most resource appropriators to participate in the decision-making process; (Consensus decisions-no leveraged hierarchies)
    3. Effective monitoring by monitors who are part of or accountable to the appropriators; (Policing)
    4. A scale of graduated sanctions for resource appropriators who violate community rules; (Opportunity to learn from mistakes )
    5. Mechanisms of conflict resolution that are cheap and of easy access; (Fair and Fast Justice . See how Inquisitorial Justice systems like Chinese , French or Sharia does it.)
    6. Self-determination of the community recognized by higher-level authorities; (Autonomy within clearly defined levels . Something like a Federation.)
    7. In the case of larger common-pool resources,organization in the form of multiple layers of nested enterprises, with small local CPRs at the base level. (Clear and quick relations with others. A potential sticky point with states.)

    Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action Ostrom, Elinor, Cambridge University Press, 1990 "


    The most important book in the Twentieth Century .

    Try to read it .







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