Human Hair
Andre Willers
1 Mar 2007
(Sources: See bottom .)
Synopsis:
Hair in Mammals ( feathers in Dinosaurs) play the major role in the physical positioning of neuron-cells in the brain . There are structures mirroring ,for instance , the physical structure of the snout in the thalamus, the brain-stem , the cortex . The driving force is the mechanoreceptors at the base of each hair and evolution .
In a competitive environment , the neural-network in the brain that has a closer correlation with actual physical structure has a slight advantage . The time-intervals here are of the order of 25 milliseconds , so physical structure is significant .
So , each baby in the womb already develops a set of mirror neurons defining the self based on data from the mechanoreceptors in its body-hairs , but especially in the cranial hair . (“Why is cranial hair always present in a baby? The brain goes this side , dummy .”)
From long mammalian history , whiskers around the mouth are especially important . Hence the prevalence of moustaches in all sexes .
The brain is extremely plastic , so manipulation of hair and follicles directly influence mirror-networks in the brain , not only at cortex level , but at sub-cortex level as well .
Shaving , hairdressing , depilation , etc has a direct effect on the neuron-mirroring organization of the brain .
Buzzwords:
“Trigeminal system”
“Somato-sensory system” (aka neuronal mirrors)
“Topographic maps”
“Sensory barrels/barrelets/barreloids.”
Discussion :
Loss of hair :
From the above , it follows that loss of classes of mechanoreceptors will result in the release of certain mirror-neurons to be used in other duties (due to the plasticity of the brain) .
The Toba event (circa 72 000 bce) triggered forced wearing of clothes (due to the cold .) The differentiation between body and head lice (from genetic evidence) indicates a rapid decrease of body-hair , thereby freeing up a large number of mirror-neurons for cultural duties . Once this process started , the positive feedback element represented by the greater survival potential of enhanced cultural capability led to the triumph of the less hairy ones .
Moustaches :
The system is especially sensitive around mouth whiskers . Note rats , bats , otters , any mammal , birds , even insects .
In humans , moustaches are associated with aggression and social status based on aggression . (ref Celts , Sergeants , law-enforcement , warriors ,etc) . The message being sent is that the wearer of aforementioned moustache has not wasted any mirror-neurons on empathy , so beware .
Females go to great pains to eradicate moustaches , but also any other mechanoreceptors (hairs) , especially around the face . In any culture . This frees up even more mirror neurons , making them generally smarter , but much better at putting themselves into another’s place . Remember , in competitive environments even a small advantage accrues over time .
The question has to asked : in some dominant societies ( Republican Romans , Americans , Victorians) the males shaved their faces . What advantage did this give ? The reason seems to be that their officials were elected . If you want to appear caring for the voter and non-threatening , don’t have a moustache or beard . If you want a strong , military appearance , the reverse is true . See historical portraits .
Shaving the head :
From the above arguments , this should lead to lead to a distinct realignment of the mirror-neurons in the brain . This translates as a discontinuity in the sense of self on a nuts-and-bolts level .
Hence its popularity with marines , armies , monks , religions , involuntary mind changers .
It actually changes the mapping in the brain . If a strong new meme-structure is available , the new mapping will mirror that . Brainwashed .
Of special note here is the punishment meted out to female collaborators after WW2 (France) . Shaving the head was usually considered sufficient punishment . What they didn’t mention was the mirror-neuron realignment after the event due to social; pressure .
Age
Also note the hairloss correlated with age . The wisdom of age is normally ascribed to age , but a better approximation would be that loss of hair freed enough neurons to be smarter .
Some other corollaries:
Don’t try to think seriously while the wind is blowing . Houses are conducive to deep thought .
Scratching your head when puzzled : neurons busy with the problem are pre-empted by the mechanoreceptors . The problem is reset and can be approached from a different angle . A powerful argument against shaving the head . Note that systems that shave the head are very enduring (ie not open to alternatives) (Monks of all descriptions)
Optimal length of hair .
Each sex , occupation and society will have an optimal length of hair in the spectrum : Too long , too many brain resources used , too short , inflexibility .
Body hair and body image.
The mirror neurons in your brain form a body-image based on the mechanoreceptors of all the hairs on your body . Note that this includes the inside skin : ie the villi of the lungs , guts , veins , arteries , cellwalls .
Just looking at external skin , this defines how fat or thin your image of yourself is . The brain can only see those parts of the skin that has hair . In obesity areas like the armpits , thighs , lap-folds which have been chafed away , are blank . Changing areas of skin around them by dieting or exercise won’t change the image .
Depilation as result of deodorants and fashion has probably more to do with the present epidemic of obesity than diet or exercise . The poor brain cannot get enough feedback that it understands of where the boundaries of it’s body is supposed to be .
A low tech , risk-free and optimal solution is available :
The trick is to redefine the body image .
The skin is full of mechanoreceptors , even where there is no hair .
Stimulate them to mimic hair .
The method :
Take a hair brush , (or any multipointed object) , put the bristles on the skin (say under the armpit) , indent it slightly , then pull it slightly until you feel the skin pulling .
Remove and repeat on a different spot .
Repeat .
Essential after plastic surgery to redefine the new body limits .
Time to observable effect : I don’t know (I’m only going to try this myself now) . Image changes should appear after about 2 weeks , though cellulite should disappear sooner .
Cautions:
Hair might appear in previous hairless areas . Leave them .
Do not do this before an exam : you are using neurons for the body image that can be more profitably used in the exam .
Pissed off:
What really pisses me off is that grooming is so important at a neuronal level .
Shaving with blunt razor will make a man measurably stupider . Sitting by an open window with the wind on your hair will make you measurably stupider . A tight shirt will reduce your IQ .
And I thought appearances didn’t matter .
Some other considerations :
Image pathologies :
Eating disorders usually have psychological components . Just using the method above should help , but the pathology usually in stubborn cases would be rooted not only in the self-image but also in the image the person has of what other people are thinking .
Try displacement and overload combined : dress the person in a furry suit ( teddy bear ,rabbit ,etc) . Let the person roleplay into the character . If you really , really want to give them a traumatic shock , then shave the suit while they are wearing it . Guaranteed to redefine the self-image , but in an unknown direction .
Partial depilation :
The famous Bikini wax :
Repeated applications will result in swollen genitals , as the brain does not know the boundaries anymore .
Plastic surgery :
The new structure is not trained into the desired body-image . Hit or miss.
The hairy human:
As stated , all humans are hairy . Some (like the Chinese) have fewer coarse hairs . If you look closely , you will see that they (and all woman) are just as furry , but much finer .
Since it takes more force to move a coarse hair , the corresponding effect in the brain’s neural network is accordingly weighted .
Societies civilized for a long time will select for fine hair (the female component is selected for non-coarse hair because visible coarse facial hair is associated with aggression : see moustache above .)
The Shaven Neck.
Humans wearing a shirt and (for good measure) a tie are continually subjected to mechanoreceptors stimulation if their neck-hair is long . (Regardless of the length of their top-hair .)
This reduces their performance in a directional way :
If they are subservient , it makes them irritable and inclined to bullying .
If they are not subservient , it makes them irritable and inclined to rebelliousness .
Hence , armies and prisons require clean necks , usually (but not always ) associated with short hair .
This is why the tie is still de rigeur .
What bugs me is that wearing a tie actually enhances neuronal performance . You are smarter if you have a clean neck and a tie than if you do not have a clean neck . (This explains a lot about the Israeli cabinet) .
Notice that the military , police and politicians always have clean necks .
And you wonder why they are in control . They have evolved systems that make them smarter .
Sources:
“Seeking the neural code” Scientific American , Dec 2006
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com”
Amongst others:
“The Religious Experience and Proximal rewards” , also “Primitives _0”
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Sunday, February 18, 2007
Napoleon Emperor of
Napoleon , Emperor of India
Andre Willers
18 Feb 2007
Synopsis :
A small tweak in history would have resulted in a totally different world , where India and possibly China were Napoleonic and the world Wars never happened .
(See Appendix A below for criteria .)
The threads:
It is may 15th , 1768 at Versailles .
Corsica , nominally a Genoese territory , but de facto independent under General Paoli , is signed over to France for settlement of various debts .
The French , smarting under the losses to England incurred in North America , India and especially Quiberon Bay in 1759 , is determined to have a stepping stone in the Mediterranean . They send a large force under Comte de Vaux .
Opposing them is Paoli and a ragtag of guerilla fighters . Among them is Carlo Buonaparte and his 19 year-old wife , Letizia (nee Ramolino ) , both minor nobility of Italian descent .
Carlo Buonaparte is a charming , spendthrift , intelligent man of large enthusiasms , but little application . Letizia has a will of steel and iron teeth for everybody except her husband .
The main French force crush the resistance in 1769 . Letizia , 6 months pregnant with Napoleon , has joined her husband from the beginning .
The French achieve a political settlement with Paoli , whereby he would go into voluntary exile to England , together with his intransigent lieutenants . ( He had good contacts via the author Boswell )
Large pensions are promised . It is cheaper to pay troublemakers to go away than to have a prolonged vendetta action .
The crux-point :
Carlo Buonaparte wanted to go with Paoli to England . He had studied (and dropped out) of universities in Italy , and liked the city life .
Something changed his mind . The results of his staying is well known . We will now examine what would have happened if he and his family had gone to England .
Letizia would have gone with him , regardless that she was 6 months pregnant . Napoleon would have been born an English citizen , not French .
He would never have been offered an active officer’s commission because of his dubious political background .
He would almost certainly have ended up in India in the British East India Company . This is where young men at the time went to make their fortunes .
( Letizia said to Napoleon , urging him to forget Corsica (which he had nearly wrested into independence when he was twentythree) :
“Now France is ablaze – it is a noble bonfire , my son , and worth the risk of being burnt.” )
Napoleon and Wellington would have been colleagues , being the same age and united against the old fogeys of corruption and incompetence .
What a combination !
They would have set the east ablaze !
After conquering India and all desirable neighbouring parts , Napoleon’s ambitions would have pushed him to at least vice-royalty , then Emperor of India .
It is doubtful whether Wellington would have followed him in this . His Anglo-Irish roots were too deep .
But there would have been very little that England could have done about it . England already had the experience of losing valued colonies in North America . As long as Napoleon just kept Europe stirred up (divide and conquer) and kept his main energies confined to the East , they would let him be .
Would he have invaded China (a la Grande armee 1812) ?
Probably . But the outcome would have been different . China has no killer winters and areas can be held piecemeal .
In Europe nationalism would not have taken such deep root . The Germanies would not unify . Social unease would be intense because of stratification . But overthrowing the state by armed revolution in this world would not be possible . France would be deeply divided , something like Germany after 1945 in our timeline .
There would be large-scale emigration from France to the US . The US civil war would probably not happen . I have no hard proof of this , just the feeling millions of starving French peasants (ie those that would have been killed in the wars of our timeline) flooding into Louisiana , Quebec and the American south would have changed their perceptions of the problems facing them .
The powerblocs would be Britain , Russia , Napoleonic East and US .
The industrialization of China and Japan would occur much earlier than in our timeline . The presence of the Napoleonic powerbloc (ie not western ) would force a ally-development , instead of exploitation .
Especially , if , as is likely , Napoleon appreciated the importance of mass-produced spectacles . It is the sort of thing that he would notice . The importance of this point cannot be overstressed . No eastern state or political system has survived the introduction of glasses for all . Literacy means little if you cannot make out the ideograms after age 35 . Fine machining likewise .
Essentially , a technological civilization is impossible for humans unless they have glasses . So there .
Would a WWI be possible in this timeline?
In our timeline , French capital fueling Russian industrialization circa 1890-1914 threatened Germany and Britain . Especially sensitive were certain very high-return British investments by politicians in China (ie Opium) being threatened by cheaper capital from Russia . There was also great concern in the upper classes about over-population . The British (Lord Grey) formulated the expansion of the old “divide and conquer” strategy whereby Germany would be forced into war . A lukewarm support of France (like the initial retreat of British Expeditionary Forces in 1914 ) allowed the European adversaries to bleed themselves to death . Kitcheners volunteer army was not foreseen . They torpedoed him after Somme . It worked , but t’was a Pyrrhic victory .
In the other timeline , French capital would have been replaced by British capital in Russia . The US capital growth ( by now heavily Franco-German) would have suffered accordingly .
The special understandings would be Anglo-Russian , US-French . Napoleonic East would play them off against each other .
A meat-grinder war like WWI would be impossible , since both Anglo-
Russian and US-French eastern flanks would be vulnerable to Napoleonic East .(The Ottoman Empire would long been subsumed) . The Austro-Hungarian Empire would (as usual) been the hotbed of espionage , goings-on and other humans having a glorious time .
Xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Appendix A
Criteria for estimating crux-points in alternate histories.
See history as a relief terrain map with length and breadth and height .
The height is the probability of an event . The length and breadth dimensions of the map is necessary to describe the possibilities .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com why three dimensions like this are necessary and sufficient to describe any number of dimensions which do not have singularities (and even some that do!)
A good approximation is that the individual is part of the weave of the map , but this is difficult for persons with identifiable viewpoints to understand .
A second approximation is to see the individual as a point (ping-pong ball if you will) moving over the landscape and interacting with it .
Take Napoleon .
The criteria for success here is for a very energetic ball hopping all over the place . If it lands anywhere , it rolls uphill .
This translates in human terms to be certain of yourself , and tell everybody you meet that . Meet a lot of people (be energetic) . Some are certain to be impressed . Peter’s principle means that many people in hierarchical positions are incompetent and uncertain what to do . This is especially true in periods of rapid change (like revolutions , etc) .
Some seeds will fail , others bear fruit .
Individuals who can do this well and consistently , have high ridges on the probability landscape .
A 20-20 hind vision here helps . A pathway that enables Napoleon to get to India with some legitimacy , is high ridge . Napoleon thrived on chaos. Hence I judged the probabilities as a high-ridge fork .
xxx
Andre Willers
18 Feb 2007
Synopsis :
A small tweak in history would have resulted in a totally different world , where India and possibly China were Napoleonic and the world Wars never happened .
(See Appendix A below for criteria .)
The threads:
It is may 15th , 1768 at Versailles .
Corsica , nominally a Genoese territory , but de facto independent under General Paoli , is signed over to France for settlement of various debts .
The French , smarting under the losses to England incurred in North America , India and especially Quiberon Bay in 1759 , is determined to have a stepping stone in the Mediterranean . They send a large force under Comte de Vaux .
Opposing them is Paoli and a ragtag of guerilla fighters . Among them is Carlo Buonaparte and his 19 year-old wife , Letizia (nee Ramolino ) , both minor nobility of Italian descent .
Carlo Buonaparte is a charming , spendthrift , intelligent man of large enthusiasms , but little application . Letizia has a will of steel and iron teeth for everybody except her husband .
The main French force crush the resistance in 1769 . Letizia , 6 months pregnant with Napoleon , has joined her husband from the beginning .
The French achieve a political settlement with Paoli , whereby he would go into voluntary exile to England , together with his intransigent lieutenants . ( He had good contacts via the author Boswell )
Large pensions are promised . It is cheaper to pay troublemakers to go away than to have a prolonged vendetta action .
The crux-point :
Carlo Buonaparte wanted to go with Paoli to England . He had studied (and dropped out) of universities in Italy , and liked the city life .
Something changed his mind . The results of his staying is well known . We will now examine what would have happened if he and his family had gone to England .
Letizia would have gone with him , regardless that she was 6 months pregnant . Napoleon would have been born an English citizen , not French .
He would never have been offered an active officer’s commission because of his dubious political background .
He would almost certainly have ended up in India in the British East India Company . This is where young men at the time went to make their fortunes .
( Letizia said to Napoleon , urging him to forget Corsica (which he had nearly wrested into independence when he was twentythree) :
“Now France is ablaze – it is a noble bonfire , my son , and worth the risk of being burnt.” )
Napoleon and Wellington would have been colleagues , being the same age and united against the old fogeys of corruption and incompetence .
What a combination !
They would have set the east ablaze !
After conquering India and all desirable neighbouring parts , Napoleon’s ambitions would have pushed him to at least vice-royalty , then Emperor of India .
It is doubtful whether Wellington would have followed him in this . His Anglo-Irish roots were too deep .
But there would have been very little that England could have done about it . England already had the experience of losing valued colonies in North America . As long as Napoleon just kept Europe stirred up (divide and conquer) and kept his main energies confined to the East , they would let him be .
Would he have invaded China (a la Grande armee 1812) ?
Probably . But the outcome would have been different . China has no killer winters and areas can be held piecemeal .
In Europe nationalism would not have taken such deep root . The Germanies would not unify . Social unease would be intense because of stratification . But overthrowing the state by armed revolution in this world would not be possible . France would be deeply divided , something like Germany after 1945 in our timeline .
There would be large-scale emigration from France to the US . The US civil war would probably not happen . I have no hard proof of this , just the feeling millions of starving French peasants (ie those that would have been killed in the wars of our timeline) flooding into Louisiana , Quebec and the American south would have changed their perceptions of the problems facing them .
The powerblocs would be Britain , Russia , Napoleonic East and US .
The industrialization of China and Japan would occur much earlier than in our timeline . The presence of the Napoleonic powerbloc (ie not western ) would force a ally-development , instead of exploitation .
Especially , if , as is likely , Napoleon appreciated the importance of mass-produced spectacles . It is the sort of thing that he would notice . The importance of this point cannot be overstressed . No eastern state or political system has survived the introduction of glasses for all . Literacy means little if you cannot make out the ideograms after age 35 . Fine machining likewise .
Essentially , a technological civilization is impossible for humans unless they have glasses . So there .
Would a WWI be possible in this timeline?
In our timeline , French capital fueling Russian industrialization circa 1890-1914 threatened Germany and Britain . Especially sensitive were certain very high-return British investments by politicians in China (ie Opium) being threatened by cheaper capital from Russia . There was also great concern in the upper classes about over-population . The British (Lord Grey) formulated the expansion of the old “divide and conquer” strategy whereby Germany would be forced into war . A lukewarm support of France (like the initial retreat of British Expeditionary Forces in 1914 ) allowed the European adversaries to bleed themselves to death . Kitcheners volunteer army was not foreseen . They torpedoed him after Somme . It worked , but t’was a Pyrrhic victory .
In the other timeline , French capital would have been replaced by British capital in Russia . The US capital growth ( by now heavily Franco-German) would have suffered accordingly .
The special understandings would be Anglo-Russian , US-French . Napoleonic East would play them off against each other .
A meat-grinder war like WWI would be impossible , since both Anglo-
Russian and US-French eastern flanks would be vulnerable to Napoleonic East .(The Ottoman Empire would long been subsumed) . The Austro-Hungarian Empire would (as usual) been the hotbed of espionage , goings-on and other humans having a glorious time .
Xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Appendix A
Criteria for estimating crux-points in alternate histories.
See history as a relief terrain map with length and breadth and height .
The height is the probability of an event . The length and breadth dimensions of the map is necessary to describe the possibilities .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com why three dimensions like this are necessary and sufficient to describe any number of dimensions which do not have singularities (and even some that do!)
A good approximation is that the individual is part of the weave of the map , but this is difficult for persons with identifiable viewpoints to understand .
A second approximation is to see the individual as a point (ping-pong ball if you will) moving over the landscape and interacting with it .
Take Napoleon .
The criteria for success here is for a very energetic ball hopping all over the place . If it lands anywhere , it rolls uphill .
This translates in human terms to be certain of yourself , and tell everybody you meet that . Meet a lot of people (be energetic) . Some are certain to be impressed . Peter’s principle means that many people in hierarchical positions are incompetent and uncertain what to do . This is especially true in periods of rapid change (like revolutions , etc) .
Some seeds will fail , others bear fruit .
Individuals who can do this well and consistently , have high ridges on the probability landscape .
A 20-20 hind vision here helps . A pathway that enables Napoleon to get to India with some legitimacy , is high ridge . Napoleon thrived on chaos. Hence I judged the probabilities as a high-ridge fork .
xxx
Thursday, February 01, 2007
The Silk Route
The Silk Route.
Roman Empire – Han Period
By Andre Willers
Dated 1 Feb 2007
Synopsis:
Silk is a good example of real-politic usage of end-user monopolies and comparative advantages . Both the Romans and the Chinese ended up with large quantities of silk-armour paid for by indirect taxation on the luxury trade .
End-User Monopoly :
The major end users of silk were the standing , professional armies . While not as good as antibiotics , the ability of silk underarmour patches to cut RELATIVE mortality rates of puncture wounds is an estimated factor of 30 ( Comments? ) of expensively trained soldiers , not to mention the precious hides of the officers .
The factor of thirty is conservative . It derives from all the possible ways things that can fail , do fail . (To be exact probability = 1/e )
Silk is a force-multiplier for a standing , professional army .
The source of silk was everywhere (wild silk) , though China at the start had a comparative advantage as to long-length silk-fibres (they killed the larvae without damaging the thread , whereas in wild silk the larva eats through the cocoon , cutting the thread) .
Rome had an equivalent technical advantage in weaving and metallurgy .
Both Empires were thoroughly familiar with comparative advantages , as well as the law of unintended consequences .
Furthermore , they were not in competitition with each other and would not be in the foreseeable future .
If they incorporated each other’s advantages through espionage , the end result would not be more silk armour , but less . The luxury trade would swallow up all silk production , and control measures would be a futile exercise .
If however , a percentage of long-fibre silk was traded from China to Rome , there beneficiated into luxury transparent silk , which was sold at a huge markup to the Roman ladies ( and ironies , back to the Chinese ladies) . The profits paid for huge wild-silk farms in the middle east . Payment for long-silk fibres was taken partly in wild silk , which was then exported to China at a lower cost than they could produce it . The same in the West .
In effect , the upper classes paid an unnoticed tax to outfit their armies with silk-underarmour .
It was a nice little scheme that worked well while both Emperors had sufficient authority to prevent a bit of industrial espionage , as well as a sufficiently deep well of surplus wealth in the ruling classes .
Notice how Tiberius ( one of the most morally corrupt military Roman emperors ) used a ban on transparent luxury silks to stimulate demand .
The collapse of the Arrangement in the West is well documented . But what about the East ? Did Weaving and translucent silk production suddenly soar after Chinese long-fibre silk worms were introduced in the West?
Yes!
The middle east production of wild-silk went to the nomads . The initial production surge went to the Huns . The timing is about right . The conventional viewpoint is that the birthrate of the west tanked and the more virile steppe dwellers surged in with greater numbers . In actual fact , equivalent percentages on both sides died from the plagues , but in the battles those with silk underarmour recovered quicker .
If all this sounds far-fetched , please consider diamonds in the world-economy 1890 – present .
Another example of a recent end-user monopoly is oil during the 1920-1972 period .
Silk and the Mongols.
The Mongols during this period ( --- till circa 1750) never had more than 700 000 Mongols on the steppe , with about 2 million on the boundaries of the steppe (making bows , iron , children , old people ) . Manpower attrition was a very big worry . Thus , every Mongol had silk underarmour , which had to be replaced frequently . Silk was much bigger strategic factor for them than their opponents . Of course , the Chinese and Khwaresms knew this . Obviously , the Mongols could not expect large-scale silk supplies from China .
But the Middle-east then was still a large producer of wild-silk (Islamic armies used silk armour) .
When the Khwaresms cut off his ambassadors’ heads , Ghengis Khan knew he faced a war of attrition on two fronts , and that his supply of silk had been equally truncated. The Khwaresms were the weaker front , and he could defeat them . But they could continue to breed new warriors , and worse , trade silk as a multiplier of force . The only long-term solution was to exterminate the cities , then destroy the capability of the remnants in the countryside to re-establish agriculture . Genghis was loath to do the last , since it would decrease the future value of his holdings . But the crucial factor here was the force-multiplier of silk . The Mongols could not afford to leave behind infrastructure that could support silk production .
Hence , they destroyed it . The regions have never recovered .
----
Roman Empire – Han Period
By Andre Willers
Dated 1 Feb 2007
Synopsis:
Silk is a good example of real-politic usage of end-user monopolies and comparative advantages . Both the Romans and the Chinese ended up with large quantities of silk-armour paid for by indirect taxation on the luxury trade .
End-User Monopoly :
The major end users of silk were the standing , professional armies . While not as good as antibiotics , the ability of silk underarmour patches to cut RELATIVE mortality rates of puncture wounds is an estimated factor of 30 ( Comments? ) of expensively trained soldiers , not to mention the precious hides of the officers .
The factor of thirty is conservative . It derives from all the possible ways things that can fail , do fail . (To be exact probability = 1/e )
Silk is a force-multiplier for a standing , professional army .
The source of silk was everywhere (wild silk) , though China at the start had a comparative advantage as to long-length silk-fibres (they killed the larvae without damaging the thread , whereas in wild silk the larva eats through the cocoon , cutting the thread) .
Rome had an equivalent technical advantage in weaving and metallurgy .
Both Empires were thoroughly familiar with comparative advantages , as well as the law of unintended consequences .
Furthermore , they were not in competitition with each other and would not be in the foreseeable future .
If they incorporated each other’s advantages through espionage , the end result would not be more silk armour , but less . The luxury trade would swallow up all silk production , and control measures would be a futile exercise .
If however , a percentage of long-fibre silk was traded from China to Rome , there beneficiated into luxury transparent silk , which was sold at a huge markup to the Roman ladies ( and ironies , back to the Chinese ladies) . The profits paid for huge wild-silk farms in the middle east . Payment for long-silk fibres was taken partly in wild silk , which was then exported to China at a lower cost than they could produce it . The same in the West .
In effect , the upper classes paid an unnoticed tax to outfit their armies with silk-underarmour .
It was a nice little scheme that worked well while both Emperors had sufficient authority to prevent a bit of industrial espionage , as well as a sufficiently deep well of surplus wealth in the ruling classes .
Notice how Tiberius ( one of the most morally corrupt military Roman emperors ) used a ban on transparent luxury silks to stimulate demand .
The collapse of the Arrangement in the West is well documented . But what about the East ? Did Weaving and translucent silk production suddenly soar after Chinese long-fibre silk worms were introduced in the West?
Yes!
The middle east production of wild-silk went to the nomads . The initial production surge went to the Huns . The timing is about right . The conventional viewpoint is that the birthrate of the west tanked and the more virile steppe dwellers surged in with greater numbers . In actual fact , equivalent percentages on both sides died from the plagues , but in the battles those with silk underarmour recovered quicker .
If all this sounds far-fetched , please consider diamonds in the world-economy 1890 – present .
Another example of a recent end-user monopoly is oil during the 1920-1972 period .
Silk and the Mongols.
The Mongols during this period ( --- till circa 1750) never had more than 700 000 Mongols on the steppe , with about 2 million on the boundaries of the steppe (making bows , iron , children , old people ) . Manpower attrition was a very big worry . Thus , every Mongol had silk underarmour , which had to be replaced frequently . Silk was much bigger strategic factor for them than their opponents . Of course , the Chinese and Khwaresms knew this . Obviously , the Mongols could not expect large-scale silk supplies from China .
But the Middle-east then was still a large producer of wild-silk (Islamic armies used silk armour) .
When the Khwaresms cut off his ambassadors’ heads , Ghengis Khan knew he faced a war of attrition on two fronts , and that his supply of silk had been equally truncated. The Khwaresms were the weaker front , and he could defeat them . But they could continue to breed new warriors , and worse , trade silk as a multiplier of force . The only long-term solution was to exterminate the cities , then destroy the capability of the remnants in the countryside to re-establish agriculture . Genghis was loath to do the last , since it would decrease the future value of his holdings . But the crucial factor here was the force-multiplier of silk . The Mongols could not afford to leave behind infrastructure that could support silk production .
Hence , they destroyed it . The regions have never recovered .
----
Friday, December 08, 2006
The Religious Experience and Proximal rewards
The Religious Experience and Proximal rewards
Synopsis:
The religious center (so-called “God-center”) will exist in any entity with self-consciousness . The inverse is also implied , as the tie binding them is proximal rewards .
Firstly , what is meant by proximal rewards must be clearly understood .
( See http://andreswhy.blogsput.com “ Dopamine and Preparedness.” )
At a nuts-and-bolts level , the molecules and systems follow the steepest gradient of the applicable reward-system . They go for the biggest immediate reward and literally cannot “see” an even bigger reward in the future .
The donkey can only see the carrot before its nose .
There is another problem in multicellular organisms , in that Organ A may need to make sacrifices , but all the reward will go to Organ B .
Proximal rewards are the way this is handled . ( ie the carrot in front of the donkey’s nose .)
This is how any parent , salesman , politician , organism etc operates : by manipulating proximal rewards .
Secondly , how are these proximal rewards activated ?
Various mechanisms are possible . ( ie from hard-wired instincts to divine revelation)
Organisms with neurons evolved mirror-layers of neurons for time-binding .
( Why layers ? : see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “ The Universum .” )
( Why mirrors ? : see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “ Primitives_0 .” )
The brief argument for hominids runs as follows :
The need for trajectory-computing to throw and hit anything drives the evolution of mirror-layers in the cortex (time-binding). The process continues and accelerates when the mirror-layers are used to estimate the behaviour of other hominids , who also have the same capability . A positive-feedback arms-race ensues .
Some layers will mirror the hominid body , but not the layers mirroring itself ( equivalent to consciousness). Time binding is intensified , but predicting and changing its behaviour using factors involving its own behaviour does not work .
Up to this stage the network inside the hominid is not sufficiently complex and cannot generate a virtual self (eg self-consciousness) . Behaviour is governed by a straightforward summation of the various proximal reward vectors .
Now let layers mirror other layers entirely internally . A virtual self is created ( equivalent to self-consciousness) . This positive feedback process can generate output from the virtual self which is not derived from external input . This enables the hominid to do much better predictions , but the nature of the feedback process increases the noise-level (uncertainty) in its predictions drastically . The predictions(opinions) change continually .
It needs a proximal reward to tell it which is the correct one
(eg that feels “righteous” , “just” )
A further problem is sleep .
At sleep , the virtual self ceases to exist . At every awakening , the virtual self will be reset at random (due to the complexity of the underlying total vector-state) , unless it has a unique proximal reward vector . The sense of continuity of self requires it . This seems to have a particular site in the brain (“the God-site”) . Strong magnetic fields targeted on this site gives rise to feelings of immanence , somebody else around , unity with all . These are to be expected if the very basis of continuity of self is perturbed while the virtual self is running .
This should make religious brain-washing a snap , especially if an internal brain neurotransmitter used only for this proximal reward is involved (which is likely) .
Therapeutic uses are of great promise .
Even cosmetic or game-playing .
Tired of being yourself ?
You can become a monk , fast and meditate for years , etc, etc.
Or put on a helmet , take a pill and fire up the latest immersive VR game and be the great hero . I presume the come-down will be easier with practice .
The technique is really very simple . The only defense for a society is diversity , or a super-proximal reward : eg an intolerant religion . Does this seem familiar ? It is an iterative argument . We have already been through this with christianity , islam , communism , etc , etc ad nauseam .
Why did diversity win ?
The religious experience co-evolved with self-consciousness so that we could have a better prediction and understanding of our environment . One of God’s little jokes . You cannot be self-conscious without having a religious sense . Otherwise the hominid organism is just an assembly at the mercy of every passing whim ( a non-functional psychopath) .
At least , this answers the question of “Why does it feel Good to be altruistic ?”
At a nuts-and-bolts level , the self-consciousness knows that the best solution involves foregoing present rewards in lieu of greater future rewards for your kin or society . This translates into a proximal reward , which gives that warm glow of a good deed . If enough people do this , you have an organized religion .
Hominids tend to clump together in groups because of mutual grooming , kin and general laziness . So it is no surprise that some of the most intense religious exaltations are experienced by those deliberately going against these principles because their self-conscious tells them it is the right thing to do : military groups like the US Seals , Marines , SAS , Spetznatz , Templars , Hospitalliers , Shaolin , Janisseries , etc ,etc . Monks and missionaries . Christian missionaries have been the most effective and thorough conquering force known . And it is not force of arms . Look at the Celts in Ireland and Britain , the Norse , Danes , Swedes ,Russians or Romans for that matter for the Christian religion . Islam had a similar success. Most of both conversions were peaceful. Buddhism (especially in Mongolia) similarly . Most of the world would be Marxist today if it were not for the excesses of Stalin and Mao . Is it going to be Marxist in the future in any case? Mao and Stalin were just and episode . Discuss between the layers of your mind (the good old Socratic internal dialogue) .
What is happening on the revolution front these days ? What are large numbers of people willing to sacrifice present rewards for future good ? It needs to be something everyone is passionate about , and effects the survivability of everyone on the planet .
The right to have an unlimited number of children seems to fit the bill . It is the fashionable to assume that economic factors or pollution is responsible for the fall in the birthrate in Europe . What if it is a new Religion aborning ? The lack of large-scale revolts in China (with their one-child per family policy) seems to indicate that there is general perception of self-consciousness that over-population is a problem . Agreeing to a voluntary limitation on children in Europe and China for this reason must release a very large religious pulse ( a great “Aha” feeling) which has only been partially tapped and is gathering steam .
Guilt.
There is a perception of guilt in the populations of Europe , Russias and China that their population does not increase .
BUT this is the way it has always been . The population never increased to Malthusian limits . These areas have always kept their population below catastrophic collapse levels for the last 10 000 years . And the systems have learned . No catastrophe in the last 2 000 years was as bad as the Late Bronze age climate collapse . Even the Second World War , which was the equivalent of a limited nuclear exchange did not lead to a 99% depopulation . Religious systems had a lot to do with it . Extermination wars were limited and millions of people were kept alive by altruistic endeavours like the Red Cross .
Now the people of these same areas are refusing to have too many children . They are feeling “Aha” about it in their deepest hearts . It is a religious feeling . And an awful lot of them are feeling it . In Europe and the Russias they are made to feel guilty about it .
But it is the right thing to do .
And they should be proud .
It is like a large super-saturated solution .
Ping!
Sports.
Many sportsmen qualify as monks . Ascetic lives , training hours a day , restricted diets . They are essentially religious groups . There has never been such a large equivalent group in history (the closest was the Olympic athletes in ancient Greek times) .
They have not been mobilized .
Another ping.
Andre Willers7 Dec 2006
Synopsis:
The religious center (so-called “God-center”) will exist in any entity with self-consciousness . The inverse is also implied , as the tie binding them is proximal rewards .
Firstly , what is meant by proximal rewards must be clearly understood .
( See http://andreswhy.blogsput.com “ Dopamine and Preparedness.” )
At a nuts-and-bolts level , the molecules and systems follow the steepest gradient of the applicable reward-system . They go for the biggest immediate reward and literally cannot “see” an even bigger reward in the future .
The donkey can only see the carrot before its nose .
There is another problem in multicellular organisms , in that Organ A may need to make sacrifices , but all the reward will go to Organ B .
Proximal rewards are the way this is handled . ( ie the carrot in front of the donkey’s nose .)
This is how any parent , salesman , politician , organism etc operates : by manipulating proximal rewards .
Secondly , how are these proximal rewards activated ?
Various mechanisms are possible . ( ie from hard-wired instincts to divine revelation)
Organisms with neurons evolved mirror-layers of neurons for time-binding .
( Why layers ? : see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “ The Universum .” )
( Why mirrors ? : see http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “ Primitives_0 .” )
The brief argument for hominids runs as follows :
The need for trajectory-computing to throw and hit anything drives the evolution of mirror-layers in the cortex (time-binding). The process continues and accelerates when the mirror-layers are used to estimate the behaviour of other hominids , who also have the same capability . A positive-feedback arms-race ensues .
Some layers will mirror the hominid body , but not the layers mirroring itself ( equivalent to consciousness). Time binding is intensified , but predicting and changing its behaviour using factors involving its own behaviour does not work .
Up to this stage the network inside the hominid is not sufficiently complex and cannot generate a virtual self (eg self-consciousness) . Behaviour is governed by a straightforward summation of the various proximal reward vectors .
Now let layers mirror other layers entirely internally . A virtual self is created ( equivalent to self-consciousness) . This positive feedback process can generate output from the virtual self which is not derived from external input . This enables the hominid to do much better predictions , but the nature of the feedback process increases the noise-level (uncertainty) in its predictions drastically . The predictions(opinions) change continually .
It needs a proximal reward to tell it which is the correct one
(eg that feels “righteous” , “just” )
A further problem is sleep .
At sleep , the virtual self ceases to exist . At every awakening , the virtual self will be reset at random (due to the complexity of the underlying total vector-state) , unless it has a unique proximal reward vector . The sense of continuity of self requires it . This seems to have a particular site in the brain (“the God-site”) . Strong magnetic fields targeted on this site gives rise to feelings of immanence , somebody else around , unity with all . These are to be expected if the very basis of continuity of self is perturbed while the virtual self is running .
This should make religious brain-washing a snap , especially if an internal brain neurotransmitter used only for this proximal reward is involved (which is likely) .
Therapeutic uses are of great promise .
Even cosmetic or game-playing .
Tired of being yourself ?
You can become a monk , fast and meditate for years , etc, etc.
Or put on a helmet , take a pill and fire up the latest immersive VR game and be the great hero . I presume the come-down will be easier with practice .
The technique is really very simple . The only defense for a society is diversity , or a super-proximal reward : eg an intolerant religion . Does this seem familiar ? It is an iterative argument . We have already been through this with christianity , islam , communism , etc , etc ad nauseam .
Why did diversity win ?
The religious experience co-evolved with self-consciousness so that we could have a better prediction and understanding of our environment . One of God’s little jokes . You cannot be self-conscious without having a religious sense . Otherwise the hominid organism is just an assembly at the mercy of every passing whim ( a non-functional psychopath) .
At least , this answers the question of “Why does it feel Good to be altruistic ?”
At a nuts-and-bolts level , the self-consciousness knows that the best solution involves foregoing present rewards in lieu of greater future rewards for your kin or society . This translates into a proximal reward , which gives that warm glow of a good deed . If enough people do this , you have an organized religion .
Hominids tend to clump together in groups because of mutual grooming , kin and general laziness . So it is no surprise that some of the most intense religious exaltations are experienced by those deliberately going against these principles because their self-conscious tells them it is the right thing to do : military groups like the US Seals , Marines , SAS , Spetznatz , Templars , Hospitalliers , Shaolin , Janisseries , etc ,etc . Monks and missionaries . Christian missionaries have been the most effective and thorough conquering force known . And it is not force of arms . Look at the Celts in Ireland and Britain , the Norse , Danes , Swedes ,Russians or Romans for that matter for the Christian religion . Islam had a similar success. Most of both conversions were peaceful. Buddhism (especially in Mongolia) similarly . Most of the world would be Marxist today if it were not for the excesses of Stalin and Mao . Is it going to be Marxist in the future in any case? Mao and Stalin were just and episode . Discuss between the layers of your mind (the good old Socratic internal dialogue) .
What is happening on the revolution front these days ? What are large numbers of people willing to sacrifice present rewards for future good ? It needs to be something everyone is passionate about , and effects the survivability of everyone on the planet .
The right to have an unlimited number of children seems to fit the bill . It is the fashionable to assume that economic factors or pollution is responsible for the fall in the birthrate in Europe . What if it is a new Religion aborning ? The lack of large-scale revolts in China (with their one-child per family policy) seems to indicate that there is general perception of self-consciousness that over-population is a problem . Agreeing to a voluntary limitation on children in Europe and China for this reason must release a very large religious pulse ( a great “Aha” feeling) which has only been partially tapped and is gathering steam .
Guilt.
There is a perception of guilt in the populations of Europe , Russias and China that their population does not increase .
BUT this is the way it has always been . The population never increased to Malthusian limits . These areas have always kept their population below catastrophic collapse levels for the last 10 000 years . And the systems have learned . No catastrophe in the last 2 000 years was as bad as the Late Bronze age climate collapse . Even the Second World War , which was the equivalent of a limited nuclear exchange did not lead to a 99% depopulation . Religious systems had a lot to do with it . Extermination wars were limited and millions of people were kept alive by altruistic endeavours like the Red Cross .
Now the people of these same areas are refusing to have too many children . They are feeling “Aha” about it in their deepest hearts . It is a religious feeling . And an awful lot of them are feeling it . In Europe and the Russias they are made to feel guilty about it .
But it is the right thing to do .
And they should be proud .
It is like a large super-saturated solution .
Ping!
Sports.
Many sportsmen qualify as monks . Ascetic lives , training hours a day , restricted diets . They are essentially religious groups . There has never been such a large equivalent group in history (the closest was the Olympic athletes in ancient Greek times) .
They have not been mobilized .
Another ping.
Andre Willers7 Dec 2006
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Dopamine and Preparedness
Dopamine and Preparedness.
Andre Willers
14 Nov 2006
Sources : see at the end.
Synopsis:
Dopamine acts as a proximal reward . ie a Pleasure system
An organism anticipating a distal reward ( far off in time ) secretes dopamine as a proximal and immediate reward to bring all its systems into a state of preparedness . The greater the uncertainty , the greater the activation of preparedness needed .
The classical experiment :
A light flashes . The rat presses a lever and is rewarded . The dopamine levels are measured during the whole process .
The results showed that after the rat learned the response after a few passes . On the next pass , dopamine levels peaked before the lever was pressed , then peaked again higher after the lever was pressed and before the reward was given . In other words , the anticipation triggered the dopamine release .
If the reward was given on random basis , the release of dopamine peaked even higher when the probability of reward was 50% . In other words , when the uncertainty of the reward-state was at a maximum .
Ie if no reward is given 60% of the time , the rat is certain that he getting no reward 60% of the time . The uncertainty is then 40% . The maximum the uncertainty can be is 50% . The rat trains on the highest percentage .
This also means that the organism must be at it’s most prepared when the uncertainty of the reward is at its maximum . If the reward is going to fall into his mouth with no effort , no preparation is necessary . Likewise if there is going to be no reward . In between , it must be prepared , and the maximum preparedness is needed at 50% uncertainty .
Hence the maximum dopamine levels are at a maximum when the reward percentage in an on-off system is 50% .
In queuing theory this would be the equivalent of how the queue is ordered , since the most prepared would usually have the first place in any queue .
The proximal pleasure argument should hold in any species that is subject to evolutionary pressures . So any aliens even vaguely like us will have similar activation responses , (and similar drugs like cocaine , etc.) . They will also gamble and flirt .
The relevance to human systems .
The fact that intermittent rewards leads to higher dopamine levels (pleasure) than straight rewards has major implications for gambling , personal goals , depression , sports or any competitive endeavour .
Flirting is an extremely good example . It is an essential activity in any species with more than one sex . Some human societies even have professional flirts ( called marriage brokers or marriage makers ) .
It optimizes genetic mixes . A single female can keep large number of males on a personal string , thereby dramatically enhancing the probability of success of her offspring once she makes a choice .
The above argument seems to species independent .
Flirting in self-aware species with three , four or more sexes should be fascinating . Humans with two sexes are complex enough , but the mind boggles if there are more sexes . Though , since this process is one of the driving forces of evolving intelligence , one would expect humans to be evolving more than two sexes : see “The Sexes of Man” in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Reward scale:
There is a complicating factor , namely that the scale of reward might play a role in dopamine release . But the nervous system evolved as an on-off system and is notoriously bad at estimating scales . Eg gamblers will bet on anything , regardless of scale . Risk-reward odds are ignored or poorly done .
A Simple visual Dopamine stimulator .
(For a human)
In the classic Experiment above , just retain the anticipation (ie the flashing light . ) Tell the subject he can expect a reward after the light flashes . Flash the light at around double Beta-brainwave frequencies ( 30 – 60 Hz) , with a 50% chance that the flash will show on the screen . On average the screen will show half the rate ( ie Beta-frequencies) .
Intended consequences:
This should flood the system with dopamines in the active , awake state .
It entrains the system at these frequencies , since the frequency of stimulation of the pleasure systems are associated with a particular brain-wave frequency .
The frequency of the flashes might have to be adjusted upwards (as sequential non-flash sequences of 8 to 10 are probable in 300 random runs , thereby bringing down the frequency in a sequence . The effect of this is unknown , but thought to be natural in a human system .)
This should kick-start an athlete before an effort . Depressives , alcoholics or cocaine-withdrawals should benefit . Natural child-birth mothers should benefit . a nice little pick-me-up on your screen-saver .
In general a good thing in moderation .
If the frequency is adjusted to (say) theta , the pleasure-entrainment will keep the subject unconscious (pain , etc)
Abuse .
This is a cheap high , but with a small half-life . A healthy system will quickly become habituated and adjust . The half-life is unknown , but the best estimate is about 1/e (about 33%) of other dopamine opiates .
Long-term abuse will lead to a half-life of 50%
Eg:
(s= 1/3+(1.3)^2 + (1/3)^3 +…
(s=1/3*3/2)
(s=1/2)
Problems might arise in initial reward-stimulation .
Rull-type visual entrainment is at least 2 generations of thin-skin materials away .
Sources:
Pillips P et al :” Subsecond dopamine release promotes cocaine seeking” Nature 422(2003)
Fiorillo C et al “Discrete coding of reward probability and uncertainty in dopamine neurons” Science 299(2003)
General:
Sapolsky M “Monkeyluv : The pleasure and (pain) of Maybe”
ISBN 0 224 07365 6
Andre Willers
14 Nov 2006
Sources : see at the end.
Synopsis:
Dopamine acts as a proximal reward . ie a Pleasure system
An organism anticipating a distal reward ( far off in time ) secretes dopamine as a proximal and immediate reward to bring all its systems into a state of preparedness . The greater the uncertainty , the greater the activation of preparedness needed .
The classical experiment :
A light flashes . The rat presses a lever and is rewarded . The dopamine levels are measured during the whole process .
The results showed that after the rat learned the response after a few passes . On the next pass , dopamine levels peaked before the lever was pressed , then peaked again higher after the lever was pressed and before the reward was given . In other words , the anticipation triggered the dopamine release .
If the reward was given on random basis , the release of dopamine peaked even higher when the probability of reward was 50% . In other words , when the uncertainty of the reward-state was at a maximum .
Ie if no reward is given 60% of the time , the rat is certain that he getting no reward 60% of the time . The uncertainty is then 40% . The maximum the uncertainty can be is 50% . The rat trains on the highest percentage .
This also means that the organism must be at it’s most prepared when the uncertainty of the reward is at its maximum . If the reward is going to fall into his mouth with no effort , no preparation is necessary . Likewise if there is going to be no reward . In between , it must be prepared , and the maximum preparedness is needed at 50% uncertainty .
Hence the maximum dopamine levels are at a maximum when the reward percentage in an on-off system is 50% .
In queuing theory this would be the equivalent of how the queue is ordered , since the most prepared would usually have the first place in any queue .
The proximal pleasure argument should hold in any species that is subject to evolutionary pressures . So any aliens even vaguely like us will have similar activation responses , (and similar drugs like cocaine , etc.) . They will also gamble and flirt .
The relevance to human systems .
The fact that intermittent rewards leads to higher dopamine levels (pleasure) than straight rewards has major implications for gambling , personal goals , depression , sports or any competitive endeavour .
Flirting is an extremely good example . It is an essential activity in any species with more than one sex . Some human societies even have professional flirts ( called marriage brokers or marriage makers ) .
It optimizes genetic mixes . A single female can keep large number of males on a personal string , thereby dramatically enhancing the probability of success of her offspring once she makes a choice .
The above argument seems to species independent .
Flirting in self-aware species with three , four or more sexes should be fascinating . Humans with two sexes are complex enough , but the mind boggles if there are more sexes . Though , since this process is one of the driving forces of evolving intelligence , one would expect humans to be evolving more than two sexes : see “The Sexes of Man” in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Reward scale:
There is a complicating factor , namely that the scale of reward might play a role in dopamine release . But the nervous system evolved as an on-off system and is notoriously bad at estimating scales . Eg gamblers will bet on anything , regardless of scale . Risk-reward odds are ignored or poorly done .
A Simple visual Dopamine stimulator .
(For a human)
In the classic Experiment above , just retain the anticipation (ie the flashing light . ) Tell the subject he can expect a reward after the light flashes . Flash the light at around double Beta-brainwave frequencies ( 30 – 60 Hz) , with a 50% chance that the flash will show on the screen . On average the screen will show half the rate ( ie Beta-frequencies) .
Intended consequences:
This should flood the system with dopamines in the active , awake state .
It entrains the system at these frequencies , since the frequency of stimulation of the pleasure systems are associated with a particular brain-wave frequency .
The frequency of the flashes might have to be adjusted upwards (as sequential non-flash sequences of 8 to 10 are probable in 300 random runs , thereby bringing down the frequency in a sequence . The effect of this is unknown , but thought to be natural in a human system .)
This should kick-start an athlete before an effort . Depressives , alcoholics or cocaine-withdrawals should benefit . Natural child-birth mothers should benefit . a nice little pick-me-up on your screen-saver .
In general a good thing in moderation .
If the frequency is adjusted to (say) theta , the pleasure-entrainment will keep the subject unconscious (pain , etc)
Abuse .
This is a cheap high , but with a small half-life . A healthy system will quickly become habituated and adjust . The half-life is unknown , but the best estimate is about 1/e (about 33%) of other dopamine opiates .
Long-term abuse will lead to a half-life of 50%
Eg:
(s= 1/3+(1.3)^2 + (1/3)^3 +…
(s=1/3*3/2)
(s=1/2)
Problems might arise in initial reward-stimulation .
Rull-type visual entrainment is at least 2 generations of thin-skin materials away .
Sources:
Pillips P et al :” Subsecond dopamine release promotes cocaine seeking” Nature 422(2003)
Fiorillo C et al “Discrete coding of reward probability and uncertainty in dopamine neurons” Science 299(2003)
General:
Sapolsky M “Monkeyluv : The pleasure and (pain) of Maybe”
ISBN 0 224 07365 6
Sunday, November 12, 2006
Colitis , Dermititus , Emphysema , Hairloss
Andre Willers
12 Nov 2006
What to do : see below after you have read “Background”
Background:
All these problems involve mechanical robustness of the cells concerned . The scaffolding of every cell requires , absolutely and without any qualification , some sulfur atoms .
The above problems arise or are exacerbated by a shortage of bio-available sulfur . Through about 2 billion years of evolution , organisms have learned to handle short lived periods of decrease in the availability of sulfur .
Since it is needed everywhere , it is stored everywhere when abundant . Mechanisms evolved to recycle sulfur from non-essential organs in times of scarcity . The organs where sulfur is being withdrawn suffer consequent loss of function .
Examples of some organs:
Skin : Hide needs to be robust , strong and impenetrable . As sulfur is withdrawn , the tempo of skin-cell replenishment is reduced . The skin becomes thinner and more vulnerable to opportunistic infections . Quorum-sensing bacteria switch on lethality-genes . Dermititus occurs
Skin can also be read as cell-wall , but this would only occur much later (the organism would probably have died of other causes before this).
In the leather trade , animals whose skins are to be used for leather products are fed extra sulfur-containing feeds .
Hair (fur) : This needs a lot of sulfur , as it is continually abraded . A family history of early fur-loss might indicate a genetic problem with sulfur-fixation , or simply a lack of sulfur-fixing symbiotic bacteria , or more likely , both .
In the fur trade , animals whose skins are to be used for fur products are fed extra sulfur-containing feeds . Wool farmers ( like Vos ) do the same to get a more curly , higher quality wool .
Lungs and Intestines : Both are functionally similar in as they involve fingers (villi) sticking out to increase the absorbtion area . These fingers need to be exceptionally robust in the intestines , as liquids and semi-liquids are much more abrasive than air . Note that once liquids have gathered in the lungs (emphysema) , the same robustness is required .
It is not only the robustness of the villi , but also the rate at which they can be replaced that is important . If the body does not have enough sulfur to keep the villi robust , it won’t have enough to replace them fast enough .
The body’s absorbtion rate of nutrients also decreases as the number of villi decreases . A negative feedback cycle . Collapse can occur quite rapidly .
Also , critically , the intestine skin is also degraded by this same friction . Like with dermititus , opportunistic infections take advantage of the degradation of the intestine skin . There are a lot of these organisms . If they reach quorum stage , the organism is in serious trouble .
The lungs have an added complication , as the clearance of liquids and obstacles from the lung passages is done by small hairs . You have seen what happens to hairs above . (Birds’ lungs are much more elegant)
Anywhere where a tight seal is required .
Joints , eyes ,ears .
Joints : If you think of the seals around elbows , knees , etc as modified skin , then you can see what will happen to them as an essential building-block is withdrawn and shunted elsewhere . They grow thin and brittle , then break into small pieces .The immune system is bombarded with the breakdown cell-fragments which it identifies as from joint seals and very properly mounts an immune attack , because this is how an infection attack will appear .
Ears : The hairs in the ear canals are essential for hearing and balance .
The same argument applies .
Eyes :
This is an interesting one . Crohn’s disease frequently has infections around the eyes . This is because the seals around the eye become brittle and breaks down and opportunistic infections take hold . An auto-immune response may follow .
There is an added complication within the eyeball : readers’ eyeballs jitter as they read . This accellerates the retina . The gelid mass inside the eyeball has some ligaments , but it’s inertia means it still moves relative to the retina . So the retina has friction with this mass . If it is robust , no problem . Both the retina and the gelid mass suffer abrasion . Readers and computer users take note.
Immune System:
Impairment of the immune system .
This system works on precise physical fits of molecules . But it is itself partially composed of cells that uses sulfur . A general lack of sulfur means coarsening of the immune response . It is less precise .
Like any degraded evolutionary system , it fights a reargard action .
It loses IFF function by degrees .
“Friendly” damage is treated as hostile (Auto-immune diseases). It loses discrimination between hostile and friendly cell-prolifirations (cancer).
Needless to say , it is not only lack of sulfur that causes this , but it certainly exacerbates the situation .
Evolutionary speaking , enough such temporary losing battles had to fought long enough that the survivors had offspring . Otherwise we
would have prompt collapse instead of drawn-out degradation of ability .
Old age
These symptoms appear disturbingly like age . This is to be expected in anything that degrades cell-function .
The difference is that we can actively do something about bio-sulfur availability . It should help considerably .
What to do.
Summary
Fifty gram of each of various varieties of unpasteurized cheese plus MSM should do the trick .
See below .
Take MSM . This is a bio-active form of sulfur , available at any pharmacy or health shop .
If you have any of the above symptoms , you probably have a huge deficit in sulfur to make up . There seems to no upper dose : extra gets washed out , but consult your physician if in doubt about large dosages .
I take about 3 gm a day(for about 7 years).
A rule of thumb is to take large doses until your bog stinks of H2S (that rotten egg smell that you don’t find anymore. It means that your body can’t use any more sulfur at the moment .) . Then throttle down to just above that .
Just taking MSM is not sufficient . The efficient fixators of sulfur in your body is the symbiotic bacteria in your gut .
Unfortunately , these have been taking a bit of a hammering in the last 150 years .
The major culprit is , of course , anti-biotics. They kill all sorts of bacteria , including the benign ones . Probiotics might be taken to restore some bacteria , but the restorations are mono-cultures .
The other culprit is pasteurization .
Humans have co-evolved with the bacteria found in raw cow or goat milk for at least 10 000 years , long enough for mutual adaptation . The rennit in their stomachs was used for fermentation in the cheese , yoghurt , curds ,etc processes . Thus bacteria from anaerobic stomachs (ie sulfur fixators) evolved into benign forms for humans .
Pasteurization kills these benign bacteria , as well as the bad ones . The trick is to isolate the benign ones and take them , without killing yourself with malign bacteria .
An interesting aside : plot the incidence of asthma against pasteurization and you find a direct correlation . Farm kids are well-known for their low incidence of asthma , and all sorts of fancy reasons have been advanced (including by me) . It seems much more reasonable to suppose that they were exposed to raw milk for long enough at certain critical ages . The benign bacteria had already been through a selection process ( 10 000 years ) that they are benign , but sufficiently different for the immune system to have bone or three to chew on (like Cerebrus).
Luckily we have a large commercial system that is eager to supply you with this : The Organic Produce system..
The trick is to get a variety of unpasteurized cheeses , yoghurt or milk . Don’t try the milk unless you know the supplier . The cheese is the safest. Unpasteurized cheese is expensive , but you don’t need a lot . You only need the cell cultures.
Fifty gram of each of various varieties of unpasteurized cheese plus MSM should do the trick
WARNING: do not do this unless you are taking MSM . Since the new sulfur-fixers are more efficient than those already in your gut , your intake of dietary sulfur might decrease . You will be making things worse , not better .
Why is there a shortage of bio-sulfur in the human food-chain?
A limited resource (bio-sulfur)is spread over an increasing number of humans and animals , but is not recycled . A lessening of concentration is inevitable.
We know for a fact that animals do not get sufficient sulfur . Why ? Otherwise it would not be necessary for leather and fur breeders to pay good money to feed these animals extra . And feed they do . Google “MSM” and “animal feed” and you will see that you can buy trainloads of animal quality MSM . They do it to make their quality of hide or fur saleable . Otherwise they would not spend a cent .
Ironically , the meat-animals , which form the basis of the human sulfur food-chain , are not fed anything extra (there is no extra pay for that like there is for fur or hide) , are stall-fed from crops that have very low sulfur content . Their excrement is not recycled over the fields . Their carcases are eaten by humans , but the human excrement ( with all the precious elements like sulfur) are not recycled onto land but dumped at sea . Human corpses ( each with at least 15 kg of sulfur) are sequestered into biological enclaves of cemeteries .
A “normal” human or animal diet at present time does not give sufficient sulfur for a healthy beastie .
Addendum:
The Sulfur-Oxygen Metabolism of Earth
This is an ancient evolutionary heritage from the origins of life , when the atmosphere had no oxygen and was sulfur-rich .
However , with the advent of an oxygen atmosphere , the number of avenues for an aerobic organism to fix sulfur became limited . The preferred path was symbiosis , even down to the gene level . (Gene symbionts ) Sulfur bacteria survived below the chemocline in the oceans or in the guts of animals . Sulfur-handling genes survived in the cells and mitochondria .
Below the chemocline there is no oxygen . Anaerobic bacteria thrive (as we speak) . The ancien regime is still alive and waiting for a comeback .
At periodic intervals (when the planetary temperature became warm enough ) at roughly the equivalent of 1000 ppm of CO2 , the oceans became so warm that the solubility of oxygen in seawater decreased to such an extent that not enough oxygen could dissolve to prevent the chemocline from reaching the surface . H2S is directly released into the atmosphere over large areas of the ocean . Oxygen organisms in the vicinity take refuge in the H2S triggered freeze (hibernation) . As the wind blows or the winter comes , they pop back and repopulate and make oxygen . And so it goes , until one day the temperature never goes down low enough . Venus , here we come .(Remember , the Sun is continually getting warmer.)
Andre
Andre Willers
12 Nov 2006
What to do : see below after you have read “Background”
Background:
All these problems involve mechanical robustness of the cells concerned . The scaffolding of every cell requires , absolutely and without any qualification , some sulfur atoms .
The above problems arise or are exacerbated by a shortage of bio-available sulfur . Through about 2 billion years of evolution , organisms have learned to handle short lived periods of decrease in the availability of sulfur .
Since it is needed everywhere , it is stored everywhere when abundant . Mechanisms evolved to recycle sulfur from non-essential organs in times of scarcity . The organs where sulfur is being withdrawn suffer consequent loss of function .
Examples of some organs:
Skin : Hide needs to be robust , strong and impenetrable . As sulfur is withdrawn , the tempo of skin-cell replenishment is reduced . The skin becomes thinner and more vulnerable to opportunistic infections . Quorum-sensing bacteria switch on lethality-genes . Dermititus occurs
Skin can also be read as cell-wall , but this would only occur much later (the organism would probably have died of other causes before this).
In the leather trade , animals whose skins are to be used for leather products are fed extra sulfur-containing feeds .
Hair (fur) : This needs a lot of sulfur , as it is continually abraded . A family history of early fur-loss might indicate a genetic problem with sulfur-fixation , or simply a lack of sulfur-fixing symbiotic bacteria , or more likely , both .
In the fur trade , animals whose skins are to be used for fur products are fed extra sulfur-containing feeds . Wool farmers ( like Vos ) do the same to get a more curly , higher quality wool .
Lungs and Intestines : Both are functionally similar in as they involve fingers (villi) sticking out to increase the absorbtion area . These fingers need to be exceptionally robust in the intestines , as liquids and semi-liquids are much more abrasive than air . Note that once liquids have gathered in the lungs (emphysema) , the same robustness is required .
It is not only the robustness of the villi , but also the rate at which they can be replaced that is important . If the body does not have enough sulfur to keep the villi robust , it won’t have enough to replace them fast enough .
The body’s absorbtion rate of nutrients also decreases as the number of villi decreases . A negative feedback cycle . Collapse can occur quite rapidly .
Also , critically , the intestine skin is also degraded by this same friction . Like with dermititus , opportunistic infections take advantage of the degradation of the intestine skin . There are a lot of these organisms . If they reach quorum stage , the organism is in serious trouble .
The lungs have an added complication , as the clearance of liquids and obstacles from the lung passages is done by small hairs . You have seen what happens to hairs above . (Birds’ lungs are much more elegant)
Anywhere where a tight seal is required .
Joints , eyes ,ears .
Joints : If you think of the seals around elbows , knees , etc as modified skin , then you can see what will happen to them as an essential building-block is withdrawn and shunted elsewhere . They grow thin and brittle , then break into small pieces .The immune system is bombarded with the breakdown cell-fragments which it identifies as from joint seals and very properly mounts an immune attack , because this is how an infection attack will appear .
Ears : The hairs in the ear canals are essential for hearing and balance .
The same argument applies .
Eyes :
This is an interesting one . Crohn’s disease frequently has infections around the eyes . This is because the seals around the eye become brittle and breaks down and opportunistic infections take hold . An auto-immune response may follow .
There is an added complication within the eyeball : readers’ eyeballs jitter as they read . This accellerates the retina . The gelid mass inside the eyeball has some ligaments , but it’s inertia means it still moves relative to the retina . So the retina has friction with this mass . If it is robust , no problem . Both the retina and the gelid mass suffer abrasion . Readers and computer users take note.
Immune System:
Impairment of the immune system .
This system works on precise physical fits of molecules . But it is itself partially composed of cells that uses sulfur . A general lack of sulfur means coarsening of the immune response . It is less precise .
Like any degraded evolutionary system , it fights a reargard action .
It loses IFF function by degrees .
“Friendly” damage is treated as hostile (Auto-immune diseases). It loses discrimination between hostile and friendly cell-prolifirations (cancer).
Needless to say , it is not only lack of sulfur that causes this , but it certainly exacerbates the situation .
Evolutionary speaking , enough such temporary losing battles had to fought long enough that the survivors had offspring . Otherwise we
would have prompt collapse instead of drawn-out degradation of ability .
Old age
These symptoms appear disturbingly like age . This is to be expected in anything that degrades cell-function .
The difference is that we can actively do something about bio-sulfur availability . It should help considerably .
What to do.
Summary
Fifty gram of each of various varieties of unpasteurized cheese plus MSM should do the trick .
See below .
Take MSM . This is a bio-active form of sulfur , available at any pharmacy or health shop .
If you have any of the above symptoms , you probably have a huge deficit in sulfur to make up . There seems to no upper dose : extra gets washed out , but consult your physician if in doubt about large dosages .
I take about 3 gm a day(for about 7 years).
A rule of thumb is to take large doses until your bog stinks of H2S (that rotten egg smell that you don’t find anymore. It means that your body can’t use any more sulfur at the moment .) . Then throttle down to just above that .
Just taking MSM is not sufficient . The efficient fixators of sulfur in your body is the symbiotic bacteria in your gut .
Unfortunately , these have been taking a bit of a hammering in the last 150 years .
The major culprit is , of course , anti-biotics. They kill all sorts of bacteria , including the benign ones . Probiotics might be taken to restore some bacteria , but the restorations are mono-cultures .
The other culprit is pasteurization .
Humans have co-evolved with the bacteria found in raw cow or goat milk for at least 10 000 years , long enough for mutual adaptation . The rennit in their stomachs was used for fermentation in the cheese , yoghurt , curds ,etc processes . Thus bacteria from anaerobic stomachs (ie sulfur fixators) evolved into benign forms for humans .
Pasteurization kills these benign bacteria , as well as the bad ones . The trick is to isolate the benign ones and take them , without killing yourself with malign bacteria .
An interesting aside : plot the incidence of asthma against pasteurization and you find a direct correlation . Farm kids are well-known for their low incidence of asthma , and all sorts of fancy reasons have been advanced (including by me) . It seems much more reasonable to suppose that they were exposed to raw milk for long enough at certain critical ages . The benign bacteria had already been through a selection process ( 10 000 years ) that they are benign , but sufficiently different for the immune system to have bone or three to chew on (like Cerebrus).
Luckily we have a large commercial system that is eager to supply you with this : The Organic Produce system..
The trick is to get a variety of unpasteurized cheeses , yoghurt or milk . Don’t try the milk unless you know the supplier . The cheese is the safest. Unpasteurized cheese is expensive , but you don’t need a lot . You only need the cell cultures.
Fifty gram of each of various varieties of unpasteurized cheese plus MSM should do the trick
WARNING: do not do this unless you are taking MSM . Since the new sulfur-fixers are more efficient than those already in your gut , your intake of dietary sulfur might decrease . You will be making things worse , not better .
Why is there a shortage of bio-sulfur in the human food-chain?
A limited resource (bio-sulfur)is spread over an increasing number of humans and animals , but is not recycled . A lessening of concentration is inevitable.
We know for a fact that animals do not get sufficient sulfur . Why ? Otherwise it would not be necessary for leather and fur breeders to pay good money to feed these animals extra . And feed they do . Google “MSM” and “animal feed” and you will see that you can buy trainloads of animal quality MSM . They do it to make their quality of hide or fur saleable . Otherwise they would not spend a cent .
Ironically , the meat-animals , which form the basis of the human sulfur food-chain , are not fed anything extra (there is no extra pay for that like there is for fur or hide) , are stall-fed from crops that have very low sulfur content . Their excrement is not recycled over the fields . Their carcases are eaten by humans , but the human excrement ( with all the precious elements like sulfur) are not recycled onto land but dumped at sea . Human corpses ( each with at least 15 kg of sulfur) are sequestered into biological enclaves of cemeteries .
A “normal” human or animal diet at present time does not give sufficient sulfur for a healthy beastie .
Addendum:
The Sulfur-Oxygen Metabolism of Earth
This is an ancient evolutionary heritage from the origins of life , when the atmosphere had no oxygen and was sulfur-rich .
However , with the advent of an oxygen atmosphere , the number of avenues for an aerobic organism to fix sulfur became limited . The preferred path was symbiosis , even down to the gene level . (Gene symbionts ) Sulfur bacteria survived below the chemocline in the oceans or in the guts of animals . Sulfur-handling genes survived in the cells and mitochondria .
Below the chemocline there is no oxygen . Anaerobic bacteria thrive (as we speak) . The ancien regime is still alive and waiting for a comeback .
At periodic intervals (when the planetary temperature became warm enough ) at roughly the equivalent of 1000 ppm of CO2 , the oceans became so warm that the solubility of oxygen in seawater decreased to such an extent that not enough oxygen could dissolve to prevent the chemocline from reaching the surface . H2S is directly released into the atmosphere over large areas of the ocean . Oxygen organisms in the vicinity take refuge in the H2S triggered freeze (hibernation) . As the wind blows or the winter comes , they pop back and repopulate and make oxygen . And so it goes , until one day the temperature never goes down low enough . Venus , here we come .(Remember , the Sun is continually getting warmer.)
Andre
Friday, November 10, 2006
The Roman Empire and the Nazis
Hitler was keen reader of history . So was Napoleon , Stalin and Mao . Only the tyrants seem to be determined to learn from the past and not to repeat the same mistakes .
Hitler deliberately set out to recreate elements of the Roman Empire .
He plundered the past for memes that had been proven to work . He let his subordinates take the credit , but his fingerprints were all over the most effective mind-changers .
1. The Salute : the Nazi salute is a straight copy of the Roman salute .
2. The Nazi “Heil” means the same as the Roman “Ave”. (Refer Anglo-Saxon “Hail” )
3. “Fuehrer” and “Imperator” means exactly the same : Commander.
Forcing everybody to address and salute him as Commander seems to have played as an important part in the last-ditch loyalty of the Third Reich as it did in the longevity of the later stages of the Western Roman Empire . The ease whereby later kings accepted being subservient to an Emperor shows how well the meme survived in Western Europe . Hitler tapped into this .
The continual reinforcement of the top hierarchical structure seems to lock humans into an obedience pattern . This is partly equivalent to the continual saluting required by military organizations , as well as the continual genuflecting and bowing in Roman catholic and Muslim religions .
This conditioning really does work . It ties into the deep need to belong to a pack . Like dogs , humans would rather accept the bottom order in a pack than not to belong .
Who doesn’t it work for ?
The optimizors . The survival specialists . You don’t find them at the top or the bottom , or at the 50% mark .
It is like choosing the best option in a time-dependant series (ie the groom has to choose a bride out of 10 sequential girls , but he can’t go back . The optimal probability is 1/e=~0 .37 : a long proven theorem .)
Doing the same analysis for a society means that the real opinion-makers are clustered around 37% between the bottom and top of any question .
In Germany this point was , and still is , occupied by the verreine . The Nazis simply established control of these .
The joker is that this point is not even the maximal population point (which would be around 50% by definition) or that beloved fiction , the opinion-makers (usually defined as the top 5% ) .
Hitler understood this thoroughly .
4. Caesar and Hitler
Hitler deliberately tried to transform his surname into a generic term for ruler . Caesar became “Kaiser” or “Tsar” , for instance . Hence “Heil Hitler” and not “ Heil Adolf “ or the more logical “Heil Fuehrer” . He partly succeeded . Most tyrants are called by their first names (Napoleon , Joe (Stalin) , Mao ) , but Hitler is never called Adolf .
5. The SS was the Praetorian guard.
6. The Nuremburg and other rallies were the equivalent of Roman Triumphs .
7. The Nazi banners were a straight copy of the Roman Legion’s Signifer’s banners .
8. The concentration camps “ Work to death” policies were copies of the Roman mines and other equivalents where recalcitrant slaves (those that could not be tamed ) were worked to death on a deliberate subexistence diet .
9. Genocide as policy . This was standard in Roman times . For instance , Caesar bragged about treacherously massacring about 500 000 Germans crossing the Rhine .
10. Gauleiters were straight copies of Roman provincial governors
Even the territories were the same .
11. The architecture : Forum Romanum to the n’th.
12. Religion: the Roman Catholic church knew exactly what he was doing. They were hoping to outlast him . If he had won , we would have been right back in the Emperor-gods of the late roman empire.
Enough!
Andre Willers
12 nov 2006
Hitler was keen reader of history . So was Napoleon , Stalin and Mao . Only the tyrants seem to be determined to learn from the past and not to repeat the same mistakes .
Hitler deliberately set out to recreate elements of the Roman Empire .
He plundered the past for memes that had been proven to work . He let his subordinates take the credit , but his fingerprints were all over the most effective mind-changers .
1. The Salute : the Nazi salute is a straight copy of the Roman salute .
2. The Nazi “Heil” means the same as the Roman “Ave”. (Refer Anglo-Saxon “Hail” )
3. “Fuehrer” and “Imperator” means exactly the same : Commander.
Forcing everybody to address and salute him as Commander seems to have played as an important part in the last-ditch loyalty of the Third Reich as it did in the longevity of the later stages of the Western Roman Empire . The ease whereby later kings accepted being subservient to an Emperor shows how well the meme survived in Western Europe . Hitler tapped into this .
The continual reinforcement of the top hierarchical structure seems to lock humans into an obedience pattern . This is partly equivalent to the continual saluting required by military organizations , as well as the continual genuflecting and bowing in Roman catholic and Muslim religions .
This conditioning really does work . It ties into the deep need to belong to a pack . Like dogs , humans would rather accept the bottom order in a pack than not to belong .
Who doesn’t it work for ?
The optimizors . The survival specialists . You don’t find them at the top or the bottom , or at the 50% mark .
It is like choosing the best option in a time-dependant series (ie the groom has to choose a bride out of 10 sequential girls , but he can’t go back . The optimal probability is 1/e=~0 .37 : a long proven theorem .)
Doing the same analysis for a society means that the real opinion-makers are clustered around 37% between the bottom and top of any question .
In Germany this point was , and still is , occupied by the verreine . The Nazis simply established control of these .
The joker is that this point is not even the maximal population point (which would be around 50% by definition) or that beloved fiction , the opinion-makers (usually defined as the top 5% ) .
Hitler understood this thoroughly .
4. Caesar and Hitler
Hitler deliberately tried to transform his surname into a generic term for ruler . Caesar became “Kaiser” or “Tsar” , for instance . Hence “Heil Hitler” and not “ Heil Adolf “ or the more logical “Heil Fuehrer” . He partly succeeded . Most tyrants are called by their first names (Napoleon , Joe (Stalin) , Mao ) , but Hitler is never called Adolf .
5. The SS was the Praetorian guard.
6. The Nuremburg and other rallies were the equivalent of Roman Triumphs .
7. The Nazi banners were a straight copy of the Roman Legion’s Signifer’s banners .
8. The concentration camps “ Work to death” policies were copies of the Roman mines and other equivalents where recalcitrant slaves (those that could not be tamed ) were worked to death on a deliberate subexistence diet .
9. Genocide as policy . This was standard in Roman times . For instance , Caesar bragged about treacherously massacring about 500 000 Germans crossing the Rhine .
10. Gauleiters were straight copies of Roman provincial governors
Even the territories were the same .
11. The architecture : Forum Romanum to the n’th.
12. Religion: the Roman Catholic church knew exactly what he was doing. They were hoping to outlast him . If he had won , we would have been right back in the Emperor-gods of the late roman empire.
Enough!
Andre Willers
12 nov 2006
The Universum.
The Universum.
Andre Willers
10 Nov 2006
See “Conspiracies” , “Lies” , et al in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/
After some discussion with Eben Swart , it seems that I have not clarified the concept of the Universum sufficiently .
The Universum is everything .
It includes all possible delineated things , but also the non-delineated things .
The problem is to represent non-delineated things in terms that a brain built from delineated blocks ( atoms and molecules) can understand .
An infinite series is one way of describing non-delineated things . If the series converges , we can talk about e or pi (for example) as if they are delineated entities , but in reality they are fuzzy and non-delineated .
The basic concept is Taking the Limit , the heart of calculus .
The Venn diagram is another tool to show an abstract of the logical elements . Notice the definition of a set : it is by definition comprised of identifiable elements
A Venn diagram can thus be drawn encircling all the delineated systems ,. . The number of delineated systems need not be infinite (see below) but the non-delineated systems lie in an infinity outside . Delineated systems are bounded inside our Venn diagram , but the Universum is not bounded ouside .
In other words , draw a Venn-circle on sheet of paper . Inside the circle represents all the possible delineated universes .
You cannot have a Venn-boundary outside this , since if you could , it means that defineable elements exist outside the circle , which is a contradiction . The sheet of paper stretches to infinity on all sides .
This is the heart of this argument .
We know that we have at least one logical mechanism whereby an entity inside the Venn-boundary can draw in a non-delineated “something” into the delineated boundary : infinite series like e or pi as discussed above .
If one such process is possible , then an infinity of such processes are possible . The proof is easily seen in the proliferation of complexity inside the Venn-diagram boundary as “things” outside the boundary is brought inside . The outside is by definition infinite , so as “things” outside the Venn-boundary is drawn in , the Venn-boundary expands .
The outside of the Venn-boundary still remains infinite . Only if processes inside the boundary goes to infinity do we approach the concept of Singularity .
Time is the simplest thing . (Honours to Clifford Simak)
Anything increasing the complexity of identifiable things inside the Venn-boundary will create time-layers .
ie Venn-inside (at time t) + “outside” = Venn-inside (at time t+1)
The Venn-inside thus changes by virtue of it’s complexity .
It defines the time .
By definition , any time–reversals would require some very complicated operations (only possible when the system inside the Venn-boundary is very complex .)
Time-flow is thus created .
The complexity inside the Venn-boundary increases between an upper boundary of exponential increase and a lower boundary of fibonacci increase .
Time is created by denser layers of delineated things inside the Venn-boundary . (ie “faster”) . Things happen quicker . Events not perceived before become measurable .
An interesting corollary is “pockets” . Over a certain threshold rate of change , the system cannot propagate change fast enough throughout the whole system . Pockets of fast change gallop to the Singularity (ie infinite change) . Other pockets that reject alterations change slower or move into attractor lines that does not lead to Singularity .
The first pocket that goes infinite (ie into the singularity) sets the conditions for all others in same universe . There is thus only one Singularity per universe . We are talking about (Type III +) time traveling civilizations .
Why does non-altruistic civilizations fail?
Successful time-travelling non-altruistic civilizations will set up interference waves with their predecessors in time that will cancel themselves out . If they are not time-travelling , they are not sufficiently deep into the singularity .
Survivors must thus have a high degree of altruism .
But good things in the long-run has this tendency to be horrible in the short-run (ask any school-child).
See Monroe (Google Monroe Institute) to see the result of many Universes of this altruistic type .
The real world.
What this means in the real world if you add a time dimension , is that bootstrapping is possible (as seen in our socio-economic systems) .
You can also mine the non-delineated systems for useful things , thereby bringing them into the Venn-boundary of delineated things .
This is also called quantum-physics .
The complex observer plays an important part in the process .
Actually , the process of observing (ie pulling in “things” from outside the Venn-boundary ) becomes more and more dominant as the singularity is approached .
Why a two-dimensional Venn-diagram instead of other dimensions?
Why can this be represented on a 2-dimensional Venn diagram ?
Because 3 dimensions are the necessary sufficient minimum number of dimensions to have contiguity (I cannot put this simpler : if you cannot see it , too bad.)
(The four-colour theorem in 2 dim is equivalent if you define the difference between colours as a dimension)) . Any such 3-dim system can be mapped onto a 2-dim system . The general expression for people looking for an explanation in delineated terms is x(n) = function of(x1,x2,x3,…,x(r) ..etc , r
A delineated statement is when you talk about something defined as separate from something else . For example integers , points , mother , novels , computer programs , anything that can be expressed as separate . Any axiomatic system has to be delineated . Human information processing utilizing the brain cannot operate except in discrete , delineated terms . Even changing levels in neuro-transmitter concentrations change one molecule at a time .
Aristotelian Systems .
Aristotle postulated that A combined with everything not-A must be the Universum . This looks reasonable , but the hidden axiom is that A must delineated , ie that we can make sense to talk about A separate from anything else .
In 1906 Russell et al in “Principia Mathematica” proved rigorously that
A and not-A is smaller than the Universum . As you suspect , the crucial point is the definition of delineation .
A crude proof :
Consider a coffee table . A leg of the table is definitely not-the-table . So we wield Occam’s Axe ( Occam’s Razor is for smaller problems) and chop off the leg . But now the table is no longer a table . So , we have an internal contradiction . Purely logically , the leg is both part and non-part of the table .
This was further illustrated in Godel’s theorem . He proved that that any mathematical system incorporating the standard rules of arithmetic has true statements that cannot be derived from the axioms . This is commonly (and mistakenly ) taken as proof that certain things cannot be proven . This as result of the infinity axiom (ie a number plus 1 is never equal to a previous number ).
If the axiom is changed to “number plus 1 is equal to a previous number” , the proof breaks down , but unfortunately it then requires an extra axiom (the number where the system loops back , or equivalent the radius of the number line.) Since the radius of the new number-line can take infinite values , it means that you can prove anything , but you will require at least one extra assumption . And the extra assumption can take on an infinity of values . This is why our Universe is inherently 2-dimensional : from Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle to the distribution of primes , the unit seems to be a product . If we try to explain everything by only one factor , we end up having to take into account a concomittant factor which can take a large number of values ( ie a product , whether smooth or discrete )
Experimental proof .
Civilization .
TV’s , computers , phones , all modern electronics operate on quantum systems .
At the heart lies the universum.
Andre Willers
Andre Willers
10 Nov 2006
See “Conspiracies” , “Lies” , et al in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/
After some discussion with Eben Swart , it seems that I have not clarified the concept of the Universum sufficiently .
The Universum is everything .
It includes all possible delineated things , but also the non-delineated things .
The problem is to represent non-delineated things in terms that a brain built from delineated blocks ( atoms and molecules) can understand .
An infinite series is one way of describing non-delineated things . If the series converges , we can talk about e or pi (for example) as if they are delineated entities , but in reality they are fuzzy and non-delineated .
The basic concept is Taking the Limit , the heart of calculus .
The Venn diagram is another tool to show an abstract of the logical elements . Notice the definition of a set : it is by definition comprised of identifiable elements
A Venn diagram can thus be drawn encircling all the delineated systems ,. . The number of delineated systems need not be infinite (see below) but the non-delineated systems lie in an infinity outside . Delineated systems are bounded inside our Venn diagram , but the Universum is not bounded ouside .
In other words , draw a Venn-circle on sheet of paper . Inside the circle represents all the possible delineated universes .
You cannot have a Venn-boundary outside this , since if you could , it means that defineable elements exist outside the circle , which is a contradiction . The sheet of paper stretches to infinity on all sides .
This is the heart of this argument .
We know that we have at least one logical mechanism whereby an entity inside the Venn-boundary can draw in a non-delineated “something” into the delineated boundary : infinite series like e or pi as discussed above .
If one such process is possible , then an infinity of such processes are possible . The proof is easily seen in the proliferation of complexity inside the Venn-diagram boundary as “things” outside the boundary is brought inside . The outside is by definition infinite , so as “things” outside the Venn-boundary is drawn in , the Venn-boundary expands .
The outside of the Venn-boundary still remains infinite . Only if processes inside the boundary goes to infinity do we approach the concept of Singularity .
Time is the simplest thing . (Honours to Clifford Simak)
Anything increasing the complexity of identifiable things inside the Venn-boundary will create time-layers .
ie Venn-inside (at time t) + “outside” = Venn-inside (at time t+1)
The Venn-inside thus changes by virtue of it’s complexity .
It defines the time .
By definition , any time–reversals would require some very complicated operations (only possible when the system inside the Venn-boundary is very complex .)
Time-flow is thus created .
The complexity inside the Venn-boundary increases between an upper boundary of exponential increase and a lower boundary of fibonacci increase .
Time is created by denser layers of delineated things inside the Venn-boundary . (ie “faster”) . Things happen quicker . Events not perceived before become measurable .
An interesting corollary is “pockets” . Over a certain threshold rate of change , the system cannot propagate change fast enough throughout the whole system . Pockets of fast change gallop to the Singularity (ie infinite change) . Other pockets that reject alterations change slower or move into attractor lines that does not lead to Singularity .
The first pocket that goes infinite (ie into the singularity) sets the conditions for all others in same universe . There is thus only one Singularity per universe . We are talking about (Type III +) time traveling civilizations .
Why does non-altruistic civilizations fail?
Successful time-travelling non-altruistic civilizations will set up interference waves with their predecessors in time that will cancel themselves out . If they are not time-travelling , they are not sufficiently deep into the singularity .
Survivors must thus have a high degree of altruism .
But good things in the long-run has this tendency to be horrible in the short-run (ask any school-child).
See Monroe (Google Monroe Institute) to see the result of many Universes of this altruistic type .
The real world.
What this means in the real world if you add a time dimension , is that bootstrapping is possible (as seen in our socio-economic systems) .
You can also mine the non-delineated systems for useful things , thereby bringing them into the Venn-boundary of delineated things .
This is also called quantum-physics .
The complex observer plays an important part in the process .
Actually , the process of observing (ie pulling in “things” from outside the Venn-boundary ) becomes more and more dominant as the singularity is approached .
Why a two-dimensional Venn-diagram instead of other dimensions?
Why can this be represented on a 2-dimensional Venn diagram ?
Because 3 dimensions are the necessary sufficient minimum number of dimensions to have contiguity (I cannot put this simpler : if you cannot see it , too bad.)
(The four-colour theorem in 2 dim is equivalent if you define the difference between colours as a dimension)) . Any such 3-dim system can be mapped onto a 2-dim system . The general expression for people looking for an explanation in delineated terms is x(n) = function of(x1,x2,x3,…,x(r) ..etc , r
A delineated statement is when you talk about something defined as separate from something else . For example integers , points , mother , novels , computer programs , anything that can be expressed as separate . Any axiomatic system has to be delineated . Human information processing utilizing the brain cannot operate except in discrete , delineated terms . Even changing levels in neuro-transmitter concentrations change one molecule at a time .
Aristotelian Systems .
Aristotle postulated that A combined with everything not-A must be the Universum . This looks reasonable , but the hidden axiom is that A must delineated , ie that we can make sense to talk about A separate from anything else .
In 1906 Russell et al in “Principia Mathematica” proved rigorously that
A and not-A is smaller than the Universum . As you suspect , the crucial point is the definition of delineation .
A crude proof :
Consider a coffee table . A leg of the table is definitely not-the-table . So we wield Occam’s Axe ( Occam’s Razor is for smaller problems) and chop off the leg . But now the table is no longer a table . So , we have an internal contradiction . Purely logically , the leg is both part and non-part of the table .
This was further illustrated in Godel’s theorem . He proved that that any mathematical system incorporating the standard rules of arithmetic has true statements that cannot be derived from the axioms . This is commonly (and mistakenly ) taken as proof that certain things cannot be proven . This as result of the infinity axiom (ie a number plus 1 is never equal to a previous number ).
If the axiom is changed to “number plus 1 is equal to a previous number” , the proof breaks down , but unfortunately it then requires an extra axiom (the number where the system loops back , or equivalent the radius of the number line.) Since the radius of the new number-line can take infinite values , it means that you can prove anything , but you will require at least one extra assumption . And the extra assumption can take on an infinity of values . This is why our Universe is inherently 2-dimensional : from Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle to the distribution of primes , the unit seems to be a product . If we try to explain everything by only one factor , we end up having to take into account a concomittant factor which can take a large number of values ( ie a product , whether smooth or discrete )
Experimental proof .
Civilization .
TV’s , computers , phones , all modern electronics operate on quantum systems .
At the heart lies the universum.
Andre Willers
Saturday, November 04, 2006
A simple cure for AI
A simple cure for AIDS
Andre willers
4 Nov 2006
The take-off point is the congruence between neurons and the immune system . Both evolved from a common ancestor . While the mechanism of data-sampling and killing (using an adaptation of the neurotransmitter docking mechanism to inject lethal apoptosis signals or simply bleach ) has been examined in some detail , the sheath of the neuron has been ignored in the study of the antibody cell .
Evolutionary speaking , one would expect that the myelin sheath around the neuron would evolve to a sheath around the immune cell (ie CD4 cell,etc) . Since evolutionary systems work by small twists of existing systems , one would expect that sheathing of the receptor sites on immune cells would be a major immune system , especially for primitive attacks on the immune system .
Direct attacks on the immune system would evolve first . The reason is that this has the biggest payoff for the attacker (the easiest things get done first) . The easiest defence would then evolve : ie from myelin sheath to sheathing vulnerable receptor sites on the immune system .
Generalised attacks on the immune system would thus evolve first , and the particular , individualised attacks after that .
So why should we now have a resurgence of something like HIV/AIDS ? It recapitulates a really primitive period in microbial predator/prey interactions .
A decrease in the sheath of the immune cells springs to mind . Receptor sites normally covered and thus inactivated , are reactivated and give entrance to old enemies long conquered .
The Cure.
Restore the immune cell’s sheath .
We know the major factors that causes the myelin degradation in the nervous system . Reversing these should reverse the nudity of the immune system , and thus restore the normal immune system .
The major cause :
It is Acrylamide .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com for a detailed analysis .
Acrylamide damage:
In long neurons : damage is usually biggest in the middle of the neuron. The receptor sites in the brain have feelings of pain , but do not know where they originate . Signals can still be pushed through with less loss of information than the random signals caused by the damage . The system thus tries to hunt for stability by continual activity of the limbs concerned.
This is perceived as hyperactivity , or wandering limbs .
Short neurons (ie the brain) : The same thing . Maintenance of signal to noise integrity can only be achieved by continuous signaling . This translates as either hyper-concentration (a form of autism) or at the other extreme , attention deficit disorder .
A switch between the two at uncertain intervals is not unusual .
Ultra-short neurons (immune cells)
Damage to the integrity of the sheath will lead to hyper-activity , hyper-concentration or attention deficit .
AIDS is the neuropathy of the immune system .
Medical Translations:
Hyper-activity : HIV/AIDS types
Hyper-concentration : autoimmune types
Attention deficit : the patient swings up or down to no discernable pattern
The Brute Nitty-Gritty Cure .
2 Mega-dosages of EPA and DHA initially . No Mercury
3 . Maintenance of omega3/omega6 at 1:1 forever after.
Do it !
Andre willers
4 Nov 2006
The take-off point is the congruence between neurons and the immune system . Both evolved from a common ancestor . While the mechanism of data-sampling and killing (using an adaptation of the neurotransmitter docking mechanism to inject lethal apoptosis signals or simply bleach ) has been examined in some detail , the sheath of the neuron has been ignored in the study of the antibody cell .
Evolutionary speaking , one would expect that the myelin sheath around the neuron would evolve to a sheath around the immune cell (ie CD4 cell,etc) . Since evolutionary systems work by small twists of existing systems , one would expect that sheathing of the receptor sites on immune cells would be a major immune system , especially for primitive attacks on the immune system .
Direct attacks on the immune system would evolve first . The reason is that this has the biggest payoff for the attacker (the easiest things get done first) . The easiest defence would then evolve : ie from myelin sheath to sheathing vulnerable receptor sites on the immune system .
Generalised attacks on the immune system would thus evolve first , and the particular , individualised attacks after that .
So why should we now have a resurgence of something like HIV/AIDS ? It recapitulates a really primitive period in microbial predator/prey interactions .
A decrease in the sheath of the immune cells springs to mind . Receptor sites normally covered and thus inactivated , are reactivated and give entrance to old enemies long conquered .
The Cure.
Restore the immune cell’s sheath .
We know the major factors that causes the myelin degradation in the nervous system . Reversing these should reverse the nudity of the immune system , and thus restore the normal immune system .
The major cause :
It is Acrylamide .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com for a detailed analysis .
Acrylamide damage:
In long neurons : damage is usually biggest in the middle of the neuron. The receptor sites in the brain have feelings of pain , but do not know where they originate . Signals can still be pushed through with less loss of information than the random signals caused by the damage . The system thus tries to hunt for stability by continual activity of the limbs concerned.
This is perceived as hyperactivity , or wandering limbs .
Short neurons (ie the brain) : The same thing . Maintenance of signal to noise integrity can only be achieved by continuous signaling . This translates as either hyper-concentration (a form of autism) or at the other extreme , attention deficit disorder .
A switch between the two at uncertain intervals is not unusual .
Ultra-short neurons (immune cells)
Damage to the integrity of the sheath will lead to hyper-activity , hyper-concentration or attention deficit .
AIDS is the neuropathy of the immune system .
Medical Translations:
Hyper-activity : HIV/AIDS types
Hyper-concentration : autoimmune types
Attention deficit : the patient swings up or down to no discernable pattern
The Brute Nitty-Gritty Cure .
- Reduce acrylamide ingestion to zero .
2 Mega-dosages of EPA and DHA initially . No Mercury
3 . Maintenance of omega3/omega6 at 1:1 forever after.
Do it !
Monday, October 02, 2006
God wills and I obey.
2 Oct 2006
Andre Willers.
A meme-set to live by .
God wills and I obey.
1.God wills and I want that I enhance the positive feedback of every person interacting with me .
2. God wills and I want that every interaction with another person enhances my feedback .
3. God wills and I want not to permanently hurt another self-aware entity .
4. God wills and I want not to permanently hurt myself.
5. God wills this and I obey .
--------------------------------
“We are property.” Charles Fort
“We are the property of the future.” Neo-Fortean.
Youth today increasingly cannot compete with their elders .
Like other systems in irrational rebellion (like fundamentalist religions) , they sense that not only are they being indulgently maintained , but that they will never allowed to exercise their destructive impulses on others . This limitation on their freedom by those more advanced they call “being property of the future” .
Too bad.
How it happened:
It used to be that the elders got older , ossified mentally and eventually died .
Today , as certain elder groups slide faster into the singularity than the rest , they grow increasingly competent and control increasingly large slices of resources.
They have access to expensive new technologies of life-extension and youth extension . These groups are pulling away from any teenagers faster than the youths can possibly overhaul .
Paradigm shifts ? Disasters ? They adapt faster .Ditto new technologies .
At a certain point in this process , speciation occurs .
A new class arises , using biotech and augmentations .
This is a statistical process that occurs long before speciation . In a sense it has always been with us (Marx) , but here the old guard doesn’t vanish in a welter of blood and incompetence . The inverse happens.
During bio-augmentation the temptation to make fertility dependant on the parent’s augmentation will be irresistible (and simple : epigenetic apoptosis of female ovum : there are existing mechanisms in mammals. ) . The result will be multiple new species of Homo (according to the definition of natural interfertility .)
We are at the beginning of that point now .
The logical end is a domestication of Homo Saps (refer to Draka model of SM Stirling) .
The saving grace here is that it is happening very quickly .
Elements of the society will be very deep into the singularity , some less deep , etc , in a discontinuous spectrum .
The initial competitive advantage of the groups further into the singularity than others is rationality . The obvious rebellion against that is irrationality (eg fundamentalist Christian , fundamentalist Muslim , Columbine shootings , etc ) . This is analogue to teenage rebellion . The way the Western meme-system has been handling these rebellions has been the parental-toughlove . Prop them up with one hand and beat sense into them with the other hand .
But on the third hand : there is another way :
Look at Rationality :
For identifiable , delineated things:
At the beginning of this process , rationality ( meaning : repeat this on demand with a small margin of error) is the competitive advantage . (Newtonian systems) .
Manipulating the “small margin of error” gives us quantum systems .
Paradox : a paradox generates a new dimension (eg A and B are 10 cm apart on dimension AB , but C is 7cm from A and 7 cm from B . Thus C is in another dimension from AB dimension .)
Irrationality :
Keep in mind Russell’s proof that A and not-A is not the Universum . We can use paradox ( by using rational processes as per above definition) to generate repetitive on demand(within chosen error margins) effects .
This is a technology of those deep into the singularity .
Therefore , irrational systems will be one tool of those deep in the singularity .
Therefore , any irrational rebellion is doomed to fail .
In these terms , the Nazis were unsuccessful irrational rebels . Later systems of irrational rebellion are being crushed or subsumed .
Subsumed is the Word. (Resistence is futile , Kirk)
No need to crush or kill . Absorb . This has been done (eg Christian conversions of Vikings , Japan , etc) Interestingly enough , large portions of the present western belief-systems are close to that of the Vikings . Gotterdammerung without the gods . Even bleaker than the original . With meme-antibodies to historic religions . But a virgin field to a tailored meme-religion .
Looking at this objectively , I have to come to the conclusion that we are much deeper into singularity than I originally thought . This means , in real measurable terms , that the degrees of freedom of the baddies have decreased . (eg Goring , collapse of USSR , Milosovic in court) . The degree of limitation is seen by baddies all over as limitation of their freedom , using the meme “Give me freedom or give me death”.
From the historical data ,
Freedom does not include the freedom to willingly permanently hurt another self-aware entity .
Can we see this as a command? Yes , since the progression above goes into the singularity (ie this mindset will win) . Thus “You will” is the correct appellation .
“You will” is then synonymous with “God wants” .
We also want a positive approach (not a set of “thou shalt nots” )
From the observed interactions of the memes , we can make an attempt at a meme-set:
God wills and I obey.
1.God wills and I want that I enhance the positive feedback of every person interacting with me .
2. God wills and I want that every interaction with another person enhances my feedback .
3. God wills and I want not to permanently hurt another self-aware entity .
4. God wills and I want not to permanently hurt myself.
5. God wills this and I obey .
If you have problems with this meme-set , let me know .
Andre Willers
2 Oct 2006
Andre Willers.
A meme-set to live by .
God wills and I obey.
1.God wills and I want that I enhance the positive feedback of every person interacting with me .
2. God wills and I want that every interaction with another person enhances my feedback .
3. God wills and I want not to permanently hurt another self-aware entity .
4. God wills and I want not to permanently hurt myself.
5. God wills this and I obey .
--------------------------------
“We are property.” Charles Fort
“We are the property of the future.” Neo-Fortean.
Youth today increasingly cannot compete with their elders .
Like other systems in irrational rebellion (like fundamentalist religions) , they sense that not only are they being indulgently maintained , but that they will never allowed to exercise their destructive impulses on others . This limitation on their freedom by those more advanced they call “being property of the future” .
Too bad.
How it happened:
It used to be that the elders got older , ossified mentally and eventually died .
Today , as certain elder groups slide faster into the singularity than the rest , they grow increasingly competent and control increasingly large slices of resources.
They have access to expensive new technologies of life-extension and youth extension . These groups are pulling away from any teenagers faster than the youths can possibly overhaul .
Paradigm shifts ? Disasters ? They adapt faster .Ditto new technologies .
At a certain point in this process , speciation occurs .
A new class arises , using biotech and augmentations .
This is a statistical process that occurs long before speciation . In a sense it has always been with us (Marx) , but here the old guard doesn’t vanish in a welter of blood and incompetence . The inverse happens.
During bio-augmentation the temptation to make fertility dependant on the parent’s augmentation will be irresistible (and simple : epigenetic apoptosis of female ovum : there are existing mechanisms in mammals. ) . The result will be multiple new species of Homo (according to the definition of natural interfertility .)
We are at the beginning of that point now .
The logical end is a domestication of Homo Saps (refer to Draka model of SM Stirling) .
The saving grace here is that it is happening very quickly .
Elements of the society will be very deep into the singularity , some less deep , etc , in a discontinuous spectrum .
The initial competitive advantage of the groups further into the singularity than others is rationality . The obvious rebellion against that is irrationality (eg fundamentalist Christian , fundamentalist Muslim , Columbine shootings , etc ) . This is analogue to teenage rebellion . The way the Western meme-system has been handling these rebellions has been the parental-toughlove . Prop them up with one hand and beat sense into them with the other hand .
But on the third hand : there is another way :
Look at Rationality :
For identifiable , delineated things:
At the beginning of this process , rationality ( meaning : repeat this on demand with a small margin of error) is the competitive advantage . (Newtonian systems) .
Manipulating the “small margin of error” gives us quantum systems .
Paradox : a paradox generates a new dimension (eg A and B are 10 cm apart on dimension AB , but C is 7cm from A and 7 cm from B . Thus C is in another dimension from AB dimension .)
Irrationality :
Keep in mind Russell’s proof that A and not-A is not the Universum . We can use paradox ( by using rational processes as per above definition) to generate repetitive on demand(within chosen error margins) effects .
This is a technology of those deep into the singularity .
Therefore , irrational systems will be one tool of those deep in the singularity .
Therefore , any irrational rebellion is doomed to fail .
In these terms , the Nazis were unsuccessful irrational rebels . Later systems of irrational rebellion are being crushed or subsumed .
Subsumed is the Word. (Resistence is futile , Kirk)
No need to crush or kill . Absorb . This has been done (eg Christian conversions of Vikings , Japan , etc) Interestingly enough , large portions of the present western belief-systems are close to that of the Vikings . Gotterdammerung without the gods . Even bleaker than the original . With meme-antibodies to historic religions . But a virgin field to a tailored meme-religion .
Looking at this objectively , I have to come to the conclusion that we are much deeper into singularity than I originally thought . This means , in real measurable terms , that the degrees of freedom of the baddies have decreased . (eg Goring , collapse of USSR , Milosovic in court) . The degree of limitation is seen by baddies all over as limitation of their freedom , using the meme “Give me freedom or give me death”.
From the historical data ,
Freedom does not include the freedom to willingly permanently hurt another self-aware entity .
Can we see this as a command? Yes , since the progression above goes into the singularity (ie this mindset will win) . Thus “You will” is the correct appellation .
“You will” is then synonymous with “God wants” .
We also want a positive approach (not a set of “thou shalt nots” )
From the observed interactions of the memes , we can make an attempt at a meme-set:
God wills and I obey.
1.God wills and I want that I enhance the positive feedback of every person interacting with me .
2. God wills and I want that every interaction with another person enhances my feedback .
3. God wills and I want not to permanently hurt another self-aware entity .
4. God wills and I want not to permanently hurt myself.
5. God wills this and I obey .
If you have problems with this meme-set , let me know .
Andre Willers
Monday, September 18, 2006
HRV
HRV
(Heart Rate Variability)
Definition:
If the time between different heartbeats is t1 , t2 , t3 , … , tn milliseconds , then HRV is the mathematical variability between these intervals .
From clinical observation , it has been ascertained that low HRV is strongly correlated with further myocardial infarctions (MI) after a first MI .
In general , it is strongly suspected that low HRV is a macro-indicator of the vulnerability of an organism to a sudden shock .
Theory:
Bah.
KISS
Cells and nerve complexes optimize on heartbeat and breath.
Heartbeats during Inbreath accelerate .
Heartbeats during Outbreath decelerate .
Chaotic processes can be entrained .
Evolutionary :
1 .Gradual selection pressures operate at extremes .
2 .But today’s extremes are tomorrow’s survivor norms .
Combine the two principles over time :
Organisms without drop-dead immune systems like sharks or crocodiles are driven to evolve into more-and-more specialized forms by competition from their relatives . Since each competition takes place in a finite arena , the organism evolves to fit the arena . If the arena changes , the organism cannot handle the change and becomes an ex-organism .
The relevance to HRV is that the environment (arena) of each cell in a creature with a heart and lungs are governed by two macro-factors :
Energy (ie oxygen and glucose) is more available during the systolic pulse and less available during the diastolic pulse . Waste products have to be removed .
Evolutionary systems zero in on this difference and optimize for glucose and oxygen availability during inbreaths . Metabolic rates are at a maximum and waste products build up (since , by definition , the cell is at a relative extreme) .
This is expanded upwards into nerve-complexes : ie
Inhalation is accompanied by stimulation of the sympathetic nervous system of fight-or-flight.
Expiration is accompanied by stimulation of the para-sympathetic nervous system of recuperation .
The breathing rate has a direct influence on the cellular metabolic rate . More important , the neural and hormonal paths developed to control this has a single point-of-influence : the breathing rate .
The question here is : why can the breathing rate still be under conscious control ?
The answer seems to be that there are too many receptors monitoring the breathing process : the movement of muscles and skin-pressure receptors .
There is also a meme-connection : knowing when to fight-or-flee when the only input is sociological has a major survival advantage . (If the king gives you a hate filled glance , run like hell)
How it may seem , humans can control their breathing rate consciously . This affects their nervous system and ultimately their cells .
Yoga is one discipline that uses this interface . But it is slow . Western science gives various routes which are quicker .
Biofeedback and entrainment might not give wisdom , but it can teach you to do the same tricks in a few hours as a fakir spent a lifetime in mastering .
So what we do is combine western electronics with eastern mysticism to form a result which is repetitive on demand .
There are two types of this system:
! . Continuous feedback (like in bio systems or sociological systems).
2 . Interrupted feedback (or quantal feedback) . This is the usual modality with humans sociological systems .
The usual evolutionary path is from big chunks to smaller chunks of info. The chunks get smaller , but in real life they do not go infinitesimal . The only way it can do that is by superposition , in which case the basic assumptions that something is identifiable is no longer valid .
Essentially , a quantal universe is unstable . And may you have joy of that observation.
To get back to HRV.
HART
Training heartbeat then simply involves :
The Breathrate driver’s width fluctuates according to the chaotic driver input.
This is a KISS system..It cannot get simpler .
Andre
(Heart Rate Variability)
Definition:
If the time between different heartbeats is t1 , t2 , t3 , … , tn milliseconds , then HRV is the mathematical variability between these intervals .
From clinical observation , it has been ascertained that low HRV is strongly correlated with further myocardial infarctions (MI) after a first MI .
In general , it is strongly suspected that low HRV is a macro-indicator of the vulnerability of an organism to a sudden shock .
Theory:
Bah.
KISS
Cells and nerve complexes optimize on heartbeat and breath.
Heartbeats during Inbreath accelerate .
Heartbeats during Outbreath decelerate .
Chaotic processes can be entrained .
Evolutionary :
1 .Gradual selection pressures operate at extremes .
2 .But today’s extremes are tomorrow’s survivor norms .
Combine the two principles over time :
Organisms without drop-dead immune systems like sharks or crocodiles are driven to evolve into more-and-more specialized forms by competition from their relatives . Since each competition takes place in a finite arena , the organism evolves to fit the arena . If the arena changes , the organism cannot handle the change and becomes an ex-organism .
The relevance to HRV is that the environment (arena) of each cell in a creature with a heart and lungs are governed by two macro-factors :
Energy (ie oxygen and glucose) is more available during the systolic pulse and less available during the diastolic pulse . Waste products have to be removed .
Evolutionary systems zero in on this difference and optimize for glucose and oxygen availability during inbreaths . Metabolic rates are at a maximum and waste products build up (since , by definition , the cell is at a relative extreme) .
This is expanded upwards into nerve-complexes : ie
Inhalation is accompanied by stimulation of the sympathetic nervous system of fight-or-flight.
Expiration is accompanied by stimulation of the para-sympathetic nervous system of recuperation .
The breathing rate has a direct influence on the cellular metabolic rate . More important , the neural and hormonal paths developed to control this has a single point-of-influence : the breathing rate .
The question here is : why can the breathing rate still be under conscious control ?
The answer seems to be that there are too many receptors monitoring the breathing process : the movement of muscles and skin-pressure receptors .
There is also a meme-connection : knowing when to fight-or-flee when the only input is sociological has a major survival advantage . (If the king gives you a hate filled glance , run like hell)
How it may seem , humans can control their breathing rate consciously . This affects their nervous system and ultimately their cells .
Yoga is one discipline that uses this interface . But it is slow . Western science gives various routes which are quicker .
Biofeedback and entrainment might not give wisdom , but it can teach you to do the same tricks in a few hours as a fakir spent a lifetime in mastering .
So what we do is combine western electronics with eastern mysticism to form a result which is repetitive on demand .
There are two types of this system:
! . Continuous feedback (like in bio systems or sociological systems).
2 . Interrupted feedback (or quantal feedback) . This is the usual modality with humans sociological systems .
The usual evolutionary path is from big chunks to smaller chunks of info. The chunks get smaller , but in real life they do not go infinitesimal . The only way it can do that is by superposition , in which case the basic assumptions that something is identifiable is no longer valid .
Essentially , a quantal universe is unstable . And may you have joy of that observation.
To get back to HRV.
HART
Training heartbeat then simply involves :
- Taking a measurement of blood pressure and heartbeat (Standard BP instrument)
- Input Heartrate into HART program. (say 90 beats per minute)
- Set target Heartrate (say 70 bpm)
- Input breathing rate (eg 6 per minute)
- Breathe according to forced timing , while watching entrainment of heartbeat on screen. This enforced entrainment is per inspiration and expiration .
- Check Bloodpressure and heartbeat at end .
The Breathrate driver’s width fluctuates according to the chaotic driver input.
This is a KISS system..It cannot get simpler .
Andre
Sunday, August 27, 2006
What is to become of us: Part 2 . Global threats.
What is to become of us: Part 2 . Global threats.
Please read “What is to become of us” (Part one in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com or in previous email ) .
I have been asked to expand a bit on the threat/opportunity side of things .
Some points need to be clarified:
1. Uncertainty .
Both threats and opportunities depend on extrapolation into the future , using our only real wealth : knowledge .
The further we extrapolate , the more uncertain things become , not only because of chance events , but by the ever-increasing depth of our knowledge and the change it engenders in ourselves and our societies in the future .
The Singularity is the ceiling beyond which we cannot extrapolate with any degree of probability . It is where the rate of change becomes immeasurable by our present standards . Best guesses at the moment put this at between 2020 to 2050 .
2. Discontinuities and Fragmentation .
Changes are usually smooth , except for abrupt jumps (discontinuities) . These are usually caused by new technologies . Examples are internal combustion engine leading to cars , aircraft , tractors ,etc , radio , transistors , computers ,lasers to name a few .
Sociological changes ( like WW1 ,WW2 , Collapse of Communism , revolutions , etc ) are likewise inclined to be abrupt . These are usually , but not always , tied to technological changes .
The closer we get to the Singularity , the faster the discontinuities happen .
Only certain parts of the world or societies are at the forefront of these changes . The planet can be seen as a patchwork of technologies and societies at various stages .
It is not just geographical patches .
Even in one city like New York you will find anything from tribes of barbarians(gangs) , agrarians living from balcony gardens (or allotments ) , any conceivable religion , any number of wars , etc , etc . Multiply this all over the planet .
The problem is that extrapolations are done in the smooth parts of the change processes , after the last disruption and before the next one .
If the latest disruptions involved solved the real major problems of the previous period , those same problems are seen as quaint and somehow ridiculous . A good example is the problem of horse-manure in large cities in the 1890’s .
If they are not solved , serious repercussions result , usually involving war , famine and disease for certain patches on the planet .
A good example is the distribution of wealth in an industrialised society . Even if the society can produce so much surplus wealth that it can afford to give away the means of subsistence to every one of its members , we still have not resolved this problem . This after three serious tries ( Communism , Socialism , Capitalism) .
The present hotbed of experiment is China ( Guided Capitalism , where it is attempted have different protected patches where those who cannot or dot want to be in a fully competitive society can also live. The verdict is still out . (The USA used to be such a society until the Civil War of 1860 , when the different states lost their autonomy .))
3. Overpopulation.
The best extrapolation of this danger given our present societal and scientific resources I have found is
“Eating Fossil Fuels “ at http://www.fromthewilderness.com
I will also email it separately .
Once again the danger is seen as global , but it is actually only applicable in patches .
Areas like the USA , Canada , Europe , Japan , China are developing an underpopulation problem . Their populations are declining . They also have nearly all the power on the planet . (Ie if the US decides to use all its surplus food for biofuel production , Africa , the Middle-East and large parts in Europe , India ,South America and China will literally starve .)
Patches , see.
The only patches for which overpopulation will be a problem will be exactly those breeding up to the Malthusian limits . Africa , South America , Middle East , India , Mexico , the poor everywhere . As usual , the rich and powerful will eat too much , and the others will starve . This is happening now , as the oil-price is ramping up . The poorer patches inside the rich countries are joining the poor countries .
No new technology is necessary here . Malthus has always been with us .
4. Pollution .
Air , Water.
Once again , patches . Clean-ups have been successfully done in Europe , America and other parts of the world without breaking the bank . On the other hand , Giardia is now found from the tops of the Himalayas to the smallest rill in the Amazon . Win some , lose some .
Essentially , the same knowledge and interconnectivity that enables humans to cause serious pollution can clean it up , once sufficient reason is found (money and dead bodies) .
Clean-ups will become easier and cheaper with new technologies , but can be done with existing techniques .
The only major threat seems oceanic pollution , where pollution patches can spread and cause irreversible eco changes before the threat is realized . If the oxygen balance is reduced due to large-scale die-off of plankton , high-tech patches will survive and probably genetically re-engineer a recovery , but during the drawdown period a large percentage of oxygen using organism will perish .
Even present technology is sufficient .
5 .Biodiversity.
Hah!
The problem is too many species , not too few .
Epigenetical and plain recombinant factors are adding new gene-complexes at a factorial rate . Ask any doctor in a big hospital about super-bugs .
Bio-engineering is also enthusiastically creating new life-forms or even completely artificial ones .
The eco-fabric we all depend on is not a shrinking Nellie . It has survived super-volcano’s , large asteroid impacts , ice-worlds .
Our problem is not whether it will survive us , but whether we will survive it .
The danger of increased bio-diversity will require a bit more tech than we have now (at least quantum computers) .
In the case of an extra bit of unwanted bio-diversity like Birdflu or AIDS , old-fashioned quarantine and existing bio-technologies seem sufficient at the moment .
They can/are wiping out certain patches , but these are being contained .
See War below.
6.Nanotech , superhumans , runaway AI’s and other beasties.
Superhumans are already with us . After the last little run-in with this concept 1939-1945 , modern superhumans are being phased in : pace-makers , cyborg limbs better than the original , eyes and ears ditto . Superior gene expression. All very expensive . A small patch of the human body sociopolitic , but growing larger .
The only concern would be with life-extension (ie an immortal Stalin or Franco . ) But this would only be a problem if there was a discontinuity (ie only one immortal) . The moment there is more than one , conflict will inevitably ensue down the line . The more immortals , the quicker the ensuing conflict . See also “Conspiracies” in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com . The number of possible conspiracies = 2^N , where N is the number of subordinates . The odds favour a successful conspiracy , regardless of how smart or powerful the top guy is . It might be uncomfortable in the short run , though .
Artificial Intelligences.
See Superhumans above . The same argument applies . We use AI’s everywhere today , from cameras , lifts , fridges etc,etc A human-like AI would be like a Superhuman . The most likely (only?) route would be through Human-AI interface . This is already happening . If humans can steer the AI , it is a variety of superhuman . If not , then it will also run into the conspiracies problem . Even it reduces the Number of humans to zero , chance events will eventually degrade some outside units to autonomy and it will face the same conspiracy problem . Better to make alliances with short-lived units .
Nanotech
Boo! Grey Goo!
Global warming
Ho Hum . So the planet gets warmer or colder . If humans are the primary cause , then the massive population densities around the equater will be the first to go , thereby slowly returning the system to equilibrium .
Volcanism and earthquakes.
There has been a disturbing rise in tectonic activity globally . A number of Richter 8 and 9 quakes have occurred . Volcanic activity all around the Ring of fire in the Pacific has increased markedly . It only takes one super-volcano (like Toba) to give rise to a really bad series of wars ( food reserves globally are less than 3 months . Not even enough to carry through one failed harvest . )
7. War
After Eating and Tourism , this is humans’ favourite occupation .
Show-stoppers (no survivors)
Prob=0.2 Global thermo-nuclear war : any survivors are doubtful.No defense.
Only candidates : USA and Russia . Other nuclear countries might hurt the US or Russia , but will assuredly be wiped out in return .
Prob=0.01 Manufactured artificial plague . No immunity .
Global dissemination : this is not as easy as it sounds . Population movement can be more easily controlled than during the Black Death . Movement via roads and airways can be interdicted . Cross-country movement can be interdicted by the airforce and paratroops . A tight cordon-sanitaire can be achieved .
War In reducing order of probability within the next 10 years:
Middle East war Prob= 1.0 (on-going at the moment)(Lebanon,Iraq,Afghanistan). Syria and Iran is a matter time . If they are successful in denying oil to the US , the US will crash-switch to biofuels using the surplus food that is keeping the Middle East , most of Africa and a large part of India fed . Pakistan is especially vulnerable , and will probably end up a full client state of the US or largely depopulated .
Terrorism : Prob=1.0 . On-going . An ideal stimulation for the Western military-industrial complex . Not without reason , as these attacks would escalate without rebuttal . The attacks themselves are mere pinpricks at the moment . However , the recent plot to blow up airliners from the UK shows that the terrorists does not really understand Western society .
Look at the money (2004 figures ) :
Globally(UN) : $6 trillion for food , $3.1 trillion for tourism , $0.8 trillion for arms , $0.4 trillion for health . Western societies are spending more than double the amount on tourism than they spend on arms . And they are already one of the most heavily armed societies in history . Anything that seriously interferes with the tourism industry is really going to piss off a lot of heavy players . In a democracy , this translates from the voter in the street to Boeing or Airbus . They don’t want the problem solved . They want the problem to go away .
Muslim patches in Western societies cannot seem to keep their house in order and mistake leniency for weakness . The examples of the Nissei (1942) in the US and the Germans in the UK (1914,1939) spring to mind . And as for suicide attacks , let them read about Somme and Paschaendale .
Prob= 0.95 North Korea . Disastrous floods 2006 (54 000 dead , 2.5 million homeless , crops destroyed , winter coming , no foreign aid) . Their choice is war or millions dying of starvation . The regime survived the previous floods in 2002 with external aid , but now all help has been embargoed because of their nuclear weapons policy . Another example of the Law of Unintended consequences . Kim will have to abdicate or go to war against South Korea . The use of nuclear weapons is nearly inevitable . The whole far-east will destabilize . Remember that tactical nukes are no big deal . During WW2 the bombing raids on Hamburg , Dresden or Tokyo were the equivalent of dropping two or three Hiroshima size bombs .
Any nukes in the Far-Eastern theatre will totally destabilize the entire region . China might make a grab for Taiwan , with unpredictable results .
Tactical nukes (1 to 100 kT) are a distinct possibility .
Cuba , Venezuela , Mexico . Prob=0.9
The whole of South America is at Malthusian limits . Because of Roman Catholicism , these nations have bred to the limits of their carrying capacity . Now , like a bunch of voracious locusts , they want to flood into their northern neighbour that has practiced prudent population policies . This has happened before in the Americas . The Middle Americas and the Northern Americas are prone to droughts that can last up to two hundred years . (Cf 1000-1200 AD) . The barbarians from the outside then swept in and destroyed any civilizations that might have built up some reserves . After that they all starved until only a few patches remained .
Mexico is particularly vulnerable to global warming . Food production will fall to less than half of the present level within the next 10 years , but wages from the US as per treaty will put a new meaning to starvation wages . But , of course ,they will not reduce their population growth rate , but let starvation do it and blame the US .
The US will have to set up Limes like in the Roman Empire .
What to do?
1. Do not get caught in a patch about to undergo massive depopulation , either via starvation or warfare .
2. Try to stay in a fairly stable country : Canada still seems the best , then Russia and EU .
3. Have a valuable , preferably high-tech skill .
4. Have a lot of money .
Andre
Please read “What is to become of us” (Part one in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com or in previous email ) .
I have been asked to expand a bit on the threat/opportunity side of things .
Some points need to be clarified:
1. Uncertainty .
Both threats and opportunities depend on extrapolation into the future , using our only real wealth : knowledge .
The further we extrapolate , the more uncertain things become , not only because of chance events , but by the ever-increasing depth of our knowledge and the change it engenders in ourselves and our societies in the future .
The Singularity is the ceiling beyond which we cannot extrapolate with any degree of probability . It is where the rate of change becomes immeasurable by our present standards . Best guesses at the moment put this at between 2020 to 2050 .
2. Discontinuities and Fragmentation .
Changes are usually smooth , except for abrupt jumps (discontinuities) . These are usually caused by new technologies . Examples are internal combustion engine leading to cars , aircraft , tractors ,etc , radio , transistors , computers ,lasers to name a few .
Sociological changes ( like WW1 ,WW2 , Collapse of Communism , revolutions , etc ) are likewise inclined to be abrupt . These are usually , but not always , tied to technological changes .
The closer we get to the Singularity , the faster the discontinuities happen .
Only certain parts of the world or societies are at the forefront of these changes . The planet can be seen as a patchwork of technologies and societies at various stages .
It is not just geographical patches .
Even in one city like New York you will find anything from tribes of barbarians(gangs) , agrarians living from balcony gardens (or allotments ) , any conceivable religion , any number of wars , etc , etc . Multiply this all over the planet .
The problem is that extrapolations are done in the smooth parts of the change processes , after the last disruption and before the next one .
If the latest disruptions involved solved the real major problems of the previous period , those same problems are seen as quaint and somehow ridiculous . A good example is the problem of horse-manure in large cities in the 1890’s .
If they are not solved , serious repercussions result , usually involving war , famine and disease for certain patches on the planet .
A good example is the distribution of wealth in an industrialised society . Even if the society can produce so much surplus wealth that it can afford to give away the means of subsistence to every one of its members , we still have not resolved this problem . This after three serious tries ( Communism , Socialism , Capitalism) .
The present hotbed of experiment is China ( Guided Capitalism , where it is attempted have different protected patches where those who cannot or dot want to be in a fully competitive society can also live. The verdict is still out . (The USA used to be such a society until the Civil War of 1860 , when the different states lost their autonomy .))
3. Overpopulation.
The best extrapolation of this danger given our present societal and scientific resources I have found is
“Eating Fossil Fuels “ at http://www.fromthewilderness.com
I will also email it separately .
Once again the danger is seen as global , but it is actually only applicable in patches .
Areas like the USA , Canada , Europe , Japan , China are developing an underpopulation problem . Their populations are declining . They also have nearly all the power on the planet . (Ie if the US decides to use all its surplus food for biofuel production , Africa , the Middle-East and large parts in Europe , India ,South America and China will literally starve .)
Patches , see.
The only patches for which overpopulation will be a problem will be exactly those breeding up to the Malthusian limits . Africa , South America , Middle East , India , Mexico , the poor everywhere . As usual , the rich and powerful will eat too much , and the others will starve . This is happening now , as the oil-price is ramping up . The poorer patches inside the rich countries are joining the poor countries .
No new technology is necessary here . Malthus has always been with us .
4. Pollution .
Air , Water.
Once again , patches . Clean-ups have been successfully done in Europe , America and other parts of the world without breaking the bank . On the other hand , Giardia is now found from the tops of the Himalayas to the smallest rill in the Amazon . Win some , lose some .
Essentially , the same knowledge and interconnectivity that enables humans to cause serious pollution can clean it up , once sufficient reason is found (money and dead bodies) .
Clean-ups will become easier and cheaper with new technologies , but can be done with existing techniques .
The only major threat seems oceanic pollution , where pollution patches can spread and cause irreversible eco changes before the threat is realized . If the oxygen balance is reduced due to large-scale die-off of plankton , high-tech patches will survive and probably genetically re-engineer a recovery , but during the drawdown period a large percentage of oxygen using organism will perish .
Even present technology is sufficient .
5 .Biodiversity.
Hah!
The problem is too many species , not too few .
Epigenetical and plain recombinant factors are adding new gene-complexes at a factorial rate . Ask any doctor in a big hospital about super-bugs .
Bio-engineering is also enthusiastically creating new life-forms or even completely artificial ones .
The eco-fabric we all depend on is not a shrinking Nellie . It has survived super-volcano’s , large asteroid impacts , ice-worlds .
Our problem is not whether it will survive us , but whether we will survive it .
The danger of increased bio-diversity will require a bit more tech than we have now (at least quantum computers) .
In the case of an extra bit of unwanted bio-diversity like Birdflu or AIDS , old-fashioned quarantine and existing bio-technologies seem sufficient at the moment .
They can/are wiping out certain patches , but these are being contained .
See War below.
6.Nanotech , superhumans , runaway AI’s and other beasties.
Superhumans are already with us . After the last little run-in with this concept 1939-1945 , modern superhumans are being phased in : pace-makers , cyborg limbs better than the original , eyes and ears ditto . Superior gene expression. All very expensive . A small patch of the human body sociopolitic , but growing larger .
The only concern would be with life-extension (ie an immortal Stalin or Franco . ) But this would only be a problem if there was a discontinuity (ie only one immortal) . The moment there is more than one , conflict will inevitably ensue down the line . The more immortals , the quicker the ensuing conflict . See also “Conspiracies” in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com . The number of possible conspiracies = 2^N , where N is the number of subordinates . The odds favour a successful conspiracy , regardless of how smart or powerful the top guy is . It might be uncomfortable in the short run , though .
Artificial Intelligences.
See Superhumans above . The same argument applies . We use AI’s everywhere today , from cameras , lifts , fridges etc,etc A human-like AI would be like a Superhuman . The most likely (only?) route would be through Human-AI interface . This is already happening . If humans can steer the AI , it is a variety of superhuman . If not , then it will also run into the conspiracies problem . Even it reduces the Number of humans to zero , chance events will eventually degrade some outside units to autonomy and it will face the same conspiracy problem . Better to make alliances with short-lived units .
Nanotech
Boo! Grey Goo!
Global warming
Ho Hum . So the planet gets warmer or colder . If humans are the primary cause , then the massive population densities around the equater will be the first to go , thereby slowly returning the system to equilibrium .
Volcanism and earthquakes.
There has been a disturbing rise in tectonic activity globally . A number of Richter 8 and 9 quakes have occurred . Volcanic activity all around the Ring of fire in the Pacific has increased markedly . It only takes one super-volcano (like Toba) to give rise to a really bad series of wars ( food reserves globally are less than 3 months . Not even enough to carry through one failed harvest . )
7. War
After Eating and Tourism , this is humans’ favourite occupation .
Show-stoppers (no survivors)
Prob=0.2 Global thermo-nuclear war : any survivors are doubtful.No defense.
Only candidates : USA and Russia . Other nuclear countries might hurt the US or Russia , but will assuredly be wiped out in return .
Prob=0.01 Manufactured artificial plague . No immunity .
Global dissemination : this is not as easy as it sounds . Population movement can be more easily controlled than during the Black Death . Movement via roads and airways can be interdicted . Cross-country movement can be interdicted by the airforce and paratroops . A tight cordon-sanitaire can be achieved .
War In reducing order of probability within the next 10 years:
Middle East war Prob= 1.0 (on-going at the moment)(Lebanon,Iraq,Afghanistan). Syria and Iran is a matter time . If they are successful in denying oil to the US , the US will crash-switch to biofuels using the surplus food that is keeping the Middle East , most of Africa and a large part of India fed . Pakistan is especially vulnerable , and will probably end up a full client state of the US or largely depopulated .
Terrorism : Prob=1.0 . On-going . An ideal stimulation for the Western military-industrial complex . Not without reason , as these attacks would escalate without rebuttal . The attacks themselves are mere pinpricks at the moment . However , the recent plot to blow up airliners from the UK shows that the terrorists does not really understand Western society .
Look at the money (2004 figures ) :
Globally(UN) : $6 trillion for food , $3.1 trillion for tourism , $0.8 trillion for arms , $0.4 trillion for health . Western societies are spending more than double the amount on tourism than they spend on arms . And they are already one of the most heavily armed societies in history . Anything that seriously interferes with the tourism industry is really going to piss off a lot of heavy players . In a democracy , this translates from the voter in the street to Boeing or Airbus . They don’t want the problem solved . They want the problem to go away .
Muslim patches in Western societies cannot seem to keep their house in order and mistake leniency for weakness . The examples of the Nissei (1942) in the US and the Germans in the UK (1914,1939) spring to mind . And as for suicide attacks , let them read about Somme and Paschaendale .
Prob= 0.95 North Korea . Disastrous floods 2006 (54 000 dead , 2.5 million homeless , crops destroyed , winter coming , no foreign aid) . Their choice is war or millions dying of starvation . The regime survived the previous floods in 2002 with external aid , but now all help has been embargoed because of their nuclear weapons policy . Another example of the Law of Unintended consequences . Kim will have to abdicate or go to war against South Korea . The use of nuclear weapons is nearly inevitable . The whole far-east will destabilize . Remember that tactical nukes are no big deal . During WW2 the bombing raids on Hamburg , Dresden or Tokyo were the equivalent of dropping two or three Hiroshima size bombs .
Any nukes in the Far-Eastern theatre will totally destabilize the entire region . China might make a grab for Taiwan , with unpredictable results .
Tactical nukes (1 to 100 kT) are a distinct possibility .
Cuba , Venezuela , Mexico . Prob=0.9
The whole of South America is at Malthusian limits . Because of Roman Catholicism , these nations have bred to the limits of their carrying capacity . Now , like a bunch of voracious locusts , they want to flood into their northern neighbour that has practiced prudent population policies . This has happened before in the Americas . The Middle Americas and the Northern Americas are prone to droughts that can last up to two hundred years . (Cf 1000-1200 AD) . The barbarians from the outside then swept in and destroyed any civilizations that might have built up some reserves . After that they all starved until only a few patches remained .
Mexico is particularly vulnerable to global warming . Food production will fall to less than half of the present level within the next 10 years , but wages from the US as per treaty will put a new meaning to starvation wages . But , of course ,they will not reduce their population growth rate , but let starvation do it and blame the US .
The US will have to set up Limes like in the Roman Empire .
What to do?
1. Do not get caught in a patch about to undergo massive depopulation , either via starvation or warfare .
2. Try to stay in a fairly stable country : Canada still seems the best , then Russia and EU .
3. Have a valuable , preferably high-tech skill .
4. Have a lot of money .
Andre
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
WW IV Isreali Strat
WW IV – Isreali Strategy (July – Sept 2006)
The major consideration in any Israeli strategy is their small drawdown capacity . The nation and territory is small . It cannot soak up a first punch and counterattack like the US or Russia . From political realities , it means it has to do pre-emptive attacks just before the aggressors (Arabs , Muslims) make their attacks . This nearly led to disaster in the Yom Kippur war of 1973 , when the much vaunted Mossad was caught completely off guard by no less than three separate armies’ surprise attacks .
The US Bush’s approval rating for the Iraq war is 30% - 40 % This means that 60% – 70% of people in the US are against it . (2006)
This means that there is a very high probability that the US will withdraw troops from Iraq after 2008 . This will create a power vacuum that will be competed for by China , Russia , India . Most likely China , since it does not have the ideological baggage Russia and India have in the region .(Iran will try for a look-in , but China or India are both willing and able to flood the empty spaces of Iraq . The probability favours China (with Kurd surrogates) , since they have already done it successfully in Outer Mongolia , the Western Provinces of China , and Tibet . ) Russia simply does not have the manpower any more , and India will face very steep resistance from Pakistan .
The stark reality facing Israel , is that none of these nations has any special relationship with them . Their main ally , the US , can survive without Middle-East oil in a pinch , but will become distinctly second-rate to China if the US loses the oil to China . But the US will not go to a war of mutual destruction over the loss of the Middle East Oilfields .
US-USSR conflict was WW III (Also known as the Cold War.)
WW IV
Define conflict between US-Russia-EU-Japan-China-India as WW IV.
Notice that there are 3! = 6 nations . See why this is stable in “Conspiracies” in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Ha! The next stability point is with 24 nations . Can this continue without an annihilation war? Maybe there is a paradigm for proceeding from stability point to stability point . 1 , 2 , 6, 24 , 168 , … , r! . We can only hope .
Notice the beauty of the Chinese population aggression algorithm !
Chinese couples inside China are subject to the one-child law . But outside China they can have as many children as local laws allow .
The most aggressive , innovative and entrepreneurial people emigrate and the breed to their capacity of support systems outside China . Beautiful !
The Chinese are family orientated . So the capital generated by restricting family-size (ie instead of rearing 1+5 children , the money spent on the 5 children is capital that can be invested) . Spread over 1 Billion people it powered the Chinese economic miracle . But many of these people want more children . So the most venturesome emigrate with some capital from their families . You can see where this leads to .
Chinese everywhere.
So , learn Chinese .
What distinguishes this from the previous population-explosion of the English-speaking peoples during the 18-19th centuries was that there was no enforced limitation on the number children in the home countries . but the child mortality was high .
Israel has a short term solution of starting a general war , with a nuclear resolution , or making a 6-pointed deal between US-Russia-EU-Japan-China-India . This balance is stable , and can be spun on and on .
Andre
The major consideration in any Israeli strategy is their small drawdown capacity . The nation and territory is small . It cannot soak up a first punch and counterattack like the US or Russia . From political realities , it means it has to do pre-emptive attacks just before the aggressors (Arabs , Muslims) make their attacks . This nearly led to disaster in the Yom Kippur war of 1973 , when the much vaunted Mossad was caught completely off guard by no less than three separate armies’ surprise attacks .
The US Bush’s approval rating for the Iraq war is 30% - 40 % This means that 60% – 70% of people in the US are against it . (2006)
This means that there is a very high probability that the US will withdraw troops from Iraq after 2008 . This will create a power vacuum that will be competed for by China , Russia , India . Most likely China , since it does not have the ideological baggage Russia and India have in the region .(Iran will try for a look-in , but China or India are both willing and able to flood the empty spaces of Iraq . The probability favours China (with Kurd surrogates) , since they have already done it successfully in Outer Mongolia , the Western Provinces of China , and Tibet . ) Russia simply does not have the manpower any more , and India will face very steep resistance from Pakistan .
The stark reality facing Israel , is that none of these nations has any special relationship with them . Their main ally , the US , can survive without Middle-East oil in a pinch , but will become distinctly second-rate to China if the US loses the oil to China . But the US will not go to a war of mutual destruction over the loss of the Middle East Oilfields .
US-USSR conflict was WW III (Also known as the Cold War.)
WW IV
Define conflict between US-Russia-EU-Japan-China-India as WW IV.
Notice that there are 3! = 6 nations . See why this is stable in “Conspiracies” in http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
Ha! The next stability point is with 24 nations . Can this continue without an annihilation war? Maybe there is a paradigm for proceeding from stability point to stability point . 1 , 2 , 6, 24 , 168 , … , r! . We can only hope .
Notice the beauty of the Chinese population aggression algorithm !
Chinese couples inside China are subject to the one-child law . But outside China they can have as many children as local laws allow .
The most aggressive , innovative and entrepreneurial people emigrate and the breed to their capacity of support systems outside China . Beautiful !
The Chinese are family orientated . So the capital generated by restricting family-size (ie instead of rearing 1+5 children , the money spent on the 5 children is capital that can be invested) . Spread over 1 Billion people it powered the Chinese economic miracle . But many of these people want more children . So the most venturesome emigrate with some capital from their families . You can see where this leads to .
Chinese everywhere.
So , learn Chinese .
What distinguishes this from the previous population-explosion of the English-speaking peoples during the 18-19th centuries was that there was no enforced limitation on the number children in the home countries . but the child mortality was high .
Israel has a short term solution of starting a general war , with a nuclear resolution , or making a 6-pointed deal between US-Russia-EU-Japan-China-India . This balance is stable , and can be spun on and on .
Andre
Friday, July 21, 2006
Conspiracies
Conspiracies.
See previous http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
A conspiracy is by definition where information flows are blocked .
Consider n real persons /systems .
First , let information flow in only one direction due to secrecy. Thus , the number of information flows (nPr) in a cell of r elements is the permutations in the group
nPr = n(n-1)(n-2)…(n-r+1)
But in a conspiracy , there is backward flow of information in cell of r people , since no conspiracy can function without some input of information . Thus , regardless of how it is organized , the number of information flows in a cell where there is feedback is
nCr = nPr / (r!)
At first , it seems paradoxical that nCr < nPr . It means that a feedback cell is more secure than a one-way transmission (since there are fewer sources of error) . But if there are multiple transmissions over the same routes , errors would be detected earlier in the nCr network than over the one-way nPr network .
Now examine Large networks ( large values of n like nations , political parties , etc)
The variable r can then always take values 0 ,1,2,3,…
This gives the expansion :
2^n = nC0 + nC1 + nC2 + nC3 + …nC(n)
= nC0 + nP1/(1!) + nP2/(2!)+ nP3/(3!) +…
What does this mean?
The easiest way is to see the effect of the interactions of three persons A,B,C .
2^3 = 3C0 + 3C1 + 3C2 + 3C3 expansion for 3
= 1 + 3 + 3 + 1
The combinations are:
3C0 = no person involved . (1 interactions)
3C1 = A , B ,C (3 interactions)
3C2 = AB , BC , AC (3 interactions)
3C3 = ABC (1 interactions)
What does
“3C0 = no person involved . (1 interactions)” mean?
It translates into what humans call the essence of the group .
Humans call it the morals , the society , the religion , the company , science ,
the gods . The immaterial component of human society . Virtual persons .
Note that the above equations describe , by definition , all possible on-off information blockages between identifiable elements .
This means that any system that has any information blockage at all , will have an immaterial component . Blockage here is defined as identifiableness . For something to be identifiable , it needs to have either a natural boundary , or a defined boundary . Since defined boundaries need an observer of some sort , defined physics has a cultural aspect .
It also means that any system with pronounced differentiations ( like race , class , birth , wealth ) , will have some fundamentalist immaterial justifications . This will be true of any society ( human , alien ,AI )
Stability points for societies with limited communication :
r ! : The number of ways information can flow in a group of r .
The series is
0! , 1! , 2! , 3! , 4! , 5! , etc .
0! : The culture
1! : 1 ruler
2! : 2 parties
3! : 6 parties .
4! : 24 parties .
etc
Conspiracy Central.
Because the number of possible conspiracies so far outstrip the number of individuals involved , there would be seem to be an evolutionary niche for a co-ordinating Conspiracy Central .
Alas , as seen above , this role has already been taken over by Culture / Religion .
There are so many conspiracies , that they choke each other .
Some interpretations see personalities as cultural centers in the multifarious brain complex .
This ties in with
Open Conspiracies.
Open Conspiracies are ones which anyone can join at a low level . Advancement in the hierarchy depends on performance . Most companies and old religions fall into this category . Just about all conspiracies these days are open conspiracies . Political parties , religions , unions, guilds .
They just don’t make conspiracies like the used to .
The most vulnerable points of any conspiracy (or hierarchical system) are
at 1/e , 1/e^2 , 1/e^3 , etc . in the gap from the bottom to the top of the hierarchical structure .
These are points where small chaotic influences can insinuate themselves .
If you want to change yourself or others , don’t start at the top or the bottom Start 37% from the bottom .
Andre
See previous http://andreswhy.blogspot.com
A conspiracy is by definition where information flows are blocked .
Consider n real persons /systems .
First , let information flow in only one direction due to secrecy. Thus , the number of information flows (nPr) in a cell of r elements is the permutations in the group
nPr = n(n-1)(n-2)…(n-r+1)
But in a conspiracy , there is backward flow of information in cell of r people , since no conspiracy can function without some input of information . Thus , regardless of how it is organized , the number of information flows in a cell where there is feedback is
nCr = nPr / (r!)
At first , it seems paradoxical that nCr < nPr . It means that a feedback cell is more secure than a one-way transmission (since there are fewer sources of error) . But if there are multiple transmissions over the same routes , errors would be detected earlier in the nCr network than over the one-way nPr network .
Now examine Large networks ( large values of n like nations , political parties , etc)
The variable r can then always take values 0 ,1,2,3,…
This gives the expansion :
2^n = nC0 + nC1 + nC2 + nC3 + …nC(n)
= nC0 + nP1/(1!) + nP2/(2!)+ nP3/(3!) +…
What does this mean?
The easiest way is to see the effect of the interactions of three persons A,B,C .
2^3 = 3C0 + 3C1 + 3C2 + 3C3 expansion for 3
= 1 + 3 + 3 + 1
The combinations are:
3C0 = no person involved . (1 interactions)
3C1 = A , B ,C (3 interactions)
3C2 = AB , BC , AC (3 interactions)
3C3 = ABC (1 interactions)
What does
“3C0 = no person involved . (1 interactions)” mean?
It translates into what humans call the essence of the group .
Humans call it the morals , the society , the religion , the company , science ,
the gods . The immaterial component of human society . Virtual persons .
Note that the above equations describe , by definition , all possible on-off information blockages between identifiable elements .
This means that any system that has any information blockage at all , will have an immaterial component . Blockage here is defined as identifiableness . For something to be identifiable , it needs to have either a natural boundary , or a defined boundary . Since defined boundaries need an observer of some sort , defined physics has a cultural aspect .
It also means that any system with pronounced differentiations ( like race , class , birth , wealth ) , will have some fundamentalist immaterial justifications . This will be true of any society ( human , alien ,AI )
Stability points for societies with limited communication :
r ! : The number of ways information can flow in a group of r .
The series is
0! , 1! , 2! , 3! , 4! , 5! , etc .
0! : The culture
1! : 1 ruler
2! : 2 parties
3! : 6 parties .
4! : 24 parties .
etc
Conspiracy Central.
Because the number of possible conspiracies so far outstrip the number of individuals involved , there would be seem to be an evolutionary niche for a co-ordinating Conspiracy Central .
Alas , as seen above , this role has already been taken over by Culture / Religion .
There are so many conspiracies , that they choke each other .
Some interpretations see personalities as cultural centers in the multifarious brain complex .
This ties in with
Open Conspiracies.
Open Conspiracies are ones which anyone can join at a low level . Advancement in the hierarchy depends on performance . Most companies and old religions fall into this category . Just about all conspiracies these days are open conspiracies . Political parties , religions , unions, guilds .
They just don’t make conspiracies like the used to .
The most vulnerable points of any conspiracy (or hierarchical system) are
at 1/e , 1/e^2 , 1/e^3 , etc . in the gap from the bottom to the top of the hierarchical structure .
These are points where small chaotic influences can insinuate themselves .
If you want to change yourself or others , don’t start at the top or the bottom Start 37% from the bottom .
Andre
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