Financial Crises 6 Jun 2011

Financial Crises 6 Jun 2011
Andre Willers
6 Jun 2011

"They forget nothing and learn nothing." Voltaire .

Synopsis :
Western socio-political systems have been unable to resolve problems of high growthrates (7%-18%) and consequent distribution of wealth and leisure consumption Fitter ones are evolving , creating tensions .

Discussion :
In a nutshell : present societies can produce all the goods and services needed for primary consumption using less than 10% of the working force .
The rest (90%) are superfluous .
But there is no guidance to Leisure Consumption or Distribution of Surpluses except a sense of grievance .

This is the Challenge .
Not too little , but too much .

This leads to hiccups in the system , and temporary blockages result .
Each blockage increases grievances , but that is all that is remembered .
Like now .

Summary :
The present problem is seen as monetary :
Some approaches to solutions :
1.USA : print more money (Pre-Revolutionary)
2. EU : Austerity (reduce consumption) (Post-Revolutionary)
3. Japan : Do nothing (Pre-Revolutionary)
4. China : Targeted Capitalism (Post-Revolutionary)
5. Russia , India , Brazil and Middle East the rest : follow China . (Post-Revolutionary)

Notice how approaches 1 and 2 above is more of the same . Approaches previously unsuccessful in competition with societies with a growth rate above 7% pa .

A Revolution , any Revolution !
Not into some promised heaven , but just to get rid of the old deadbeats .
Notice how the present cycle of revolutionaries are not really "pro" anything , but certain that they can cobble up something better using social networks like facebook , twitter , etc . And they probably can .

Revolutions of Expectation .

Post-Revolution Societies .
BRICS flows naturally out of this .
Add the Middle East to BRICS after their cycle of revolutions now underway , and revolutionary pressures on the USA will increase past bearing .
A fractured USA , with civil wars and all , is in no one's interest . But a Restoraration of Rights for the States is . It depends which version of the US Constitution the soldiers hold paramount . (See the perils of Constitutional Amendments ? The old Persian Empire foundered on this rock (Laws of Medes and Persians) )

What is a poor investor to do ?
The risks keep multiplying exponentially .

The USA seems almost certain to keep on printing money , ruining their major asset (the US dollar as international currency) and impoverishing their citizens , ensuring some sort of revolution .

The USA social system likes the sure thing and crushing victories .(comes from the Normans) .But they have failed dismally at this (Vietnam ,etc)

The Chinese social system has a built-in attraction to chaotic-thresholds . (Comes from an old civilization . Or maybe they just play too much Mah-Jongg)

In other words , too pushy .

But you have to be Chinese to understand the thresholds .
What seems to be a riot is just a normal expression of disagreement . But over certain threshold , it is a bit more serious . With degrees of seriousness , backed up by something that matters .

The only time they were really , really serious , with no gloves or games were in the early stages of the Ming rebellion against the Mongols .

This is the Soul of the Chinese .

A slave rebellion that worked .
And that is why they play Mah-Jonggg . (The last g is for the hell of it) .

Aug 2 , 2011 . A critical date . Decision time .
1.If the USA prints more money , the Union will be lost . The citizens cannot bear the burden of extra-national and federal costs any more . Dissolution and alliances via facebook ,etc will ensue . Revolution , meaning rejection of old ways , like what is happening in North Africa now .

2.If not , Revolution , meaning Reform . Can be done , because it has been done .
But harder . Revolution is easier . You will have to decide for yourself .

Either way , the Dollar has an extremely narrow window of squeezing through with it's value intact .

"War! War ! Glorious War ! May we die before peace ! "
War chant of Homo Sapiens Sapiens .

The point of War is to reconcile irreconcilable conflicts after they have occurred .

War Now .
The pushiness has already started . Cyber attacks . The Chinese see it as normal boundary pushing , The Americans see it as attacks .But they store the grievances .
Then express them in vomiting nuclear paintings across the sky .

Will the Singularity intervene (a-la-deus ex machina) to save Humanity and my investments ?

"Oh my God! My ass and my ducats! " (Courtesy of Shakespeare)
The singularity , you and your money . Half a point for your daughter .

Who cares ?
Let you lot exterminate each other . You seem to have no other use .

Not a good investment .

Andre