Friday, December 27, 2013

Shock! Horror! Crash of 2014 .

Market Crash 2014

"You pays your money and you makes your choice ."
It seems very probable that a sharp , very rapid market correction will occur in early 2014 , lasting till 2015 . Falls of 67% expected .

Discussion :

Many indicators point to a sharp downward correction in early 2014 .

Down to S&P 500-600 level .
A fall to about 1/3 of it's present (Dec 2013) level .
That pesky 1/3 again .

A fairly balanced view . 


  • "Once again, without getting too fancy, we can’t help but notice that this phase is characterized by steeply ascending Bull markets that last around five years. These then collapse and retrace much of the previous rise within a few years.

The reasons why these Bull phases only last about five years are of course open to debate, but what is clear is that some causal factors arise at about the five-year mark that cause the market to reverse sharply.

The ensuing Bear markets have lasted between 2.5 and 1.5 years. We only have three advances and two declines to date, but the regularity of these advances and declines is noteworthy."

Forecasting the Amplitude of the Next Decline
A number of technical analysts have noted this megaphone pattern in the stock market, a pattern formed by alternating higher highs and lower lows.  This is one basis of forecasts for the SPX to drop to the 500-600 level in the next downdraft, potentially retracing the entire Bull advance from 1995. 
While this megaphone may not play out, it establishes a potential target for a crushing drop from current highs


A bit over the top , but the same conclusion .

" please understand we are not in an investor environment this late in the bull market. This is short term trading only and at the first sign the crash has begun, get out and stay out."

A pin anybody ?



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