Thursday, September 18, 2014

The Machine Gun triggered WW I

The Machine Gun triggered World War I

Andre Willers
18 Sep 2014
Synopsis :
Machine Guns triggered WWI  and Smart Bullets will do for WW III .  Expectation of increasing defensive capabilities trigger war as aggressors faced a narrowing window of opportunity 
Discussion :
1.The Offense-Defense balance .
See Appendix A
If Offense is dominant , war is less likely because the leaders themselves are at risk .
However , if Offense is dominant , but the expectation is that Defense will become dominant , then pre-emptive attack becomes more likely .
2.The Machine Gun prior to 1914 .
2.1See Appendix B , especially Ivan Bloch . He warned in 1899 with meticulous detail .
2.2 See Appendix C
==1907 > An eyewitness analysis of the Russo-Japanese War by British officer Ian Hamilton concludes that infantry by itself can't break a strong defense, regardless of its numbers or elan (see 1912)
==May.--- > A German General Staff intelligence report warns that in a war with France, a quick and decisive victory is unlikely
==Aug.13 > Winston Churchill sends a memo to Asquith on the first stages of a continental war, in which he accurately predicts the events of Aug-Sep 1914 and envisions a long war of attrition - the memo is contemptuously dismissed by Henry Wilson
2.3 There was a growing realization from about 1908 that the Machine Gun is shifting the battlefield balance from Offense to Defense .
2.4 This is what actually happened . See Appendix D for numbers of machine guns for UK alone :
1914 (300) to  1918 (120 000)  , a 400 fold increase . The most of any item . The same with every other combatant .

2.5 This led to the expectation of growing defensive power . If an aggressor had to attack , he better do it soon .
2.5 The ruling class were all cavalry , and were becoming acutely aware of approaching obsolescence .
2.6 Germany , especially, felt threatened by the French-Russian alliance . The German General staff gloomily assessed their chances as poor , but rapidly growing worse .
“As the political situation in Europe changed between 1908 and 1914, Moltke became ever more certain that in order to ensure a German victory, especially over Russia, war had to come sooner not later.
2.7 Hence , the decision not to avert war .
3.Relevance today ?
A similar situation has arisen .
Smart bullets are playing the role of the machine gun , multiplying the Offensive power of a single soldier .
See Appendix E
 The balance (at present on Defense side) is about to be shifted to Offense .
Countries (like US) who fight defensive wars in an aggressive fashion see the window in which they can do so shrinking rapidly .
Hence the rash of small wars all over before everybody has smart bullets .
Better get in with both boots before the enemy gets out the old equalizer .
Darwinnianly yours
Appendix A

If wars last a long time and see many
attrition contests but few decisive battles between roughly equal adversaries, then defense
dominates. If wars are short and characterized by decisive battles between roughly equal
opponents, offense dominates. The frequent, costly wars of the period 1648-1789 tended to
be multi-year affairs characterized by attrition contests, while the less frequent, less costly
wars of the 1815-1914 period tended to be short and characterized by decisive battles.
What should we make of this evidence? One possibility is that offensive advantages
do cause war but that other factors are considerably more important, at least for this span
of time. While there is something to this, I will develop a different position: Offensive
advantages may have diverse effects, at least one of which favor peace rather than war. In
particular, an important but neglected effect of offensive advantages is that they increase the
variance of military outcomes. As the offense grows stronger, war is more likely to result in
either the total victory or total defeat of a state’s army, and less likely to yield stalemate or
small changes in territorial holdings. This means that offensive advantages make war less safe
for leaders interested in retaining power in a capital city. When defense dominates, leaders
can prosecute war “at the perimeter” with little fear of being deposed or otherwise subjected
by a conquering army. After Napoleon and the development of the mass army, going to war
more often meant risking the regime, something even “greedy” states are reluctant to do.
(The argument that the nuclear weapons make for defense dominance – actually, stable deterrence – is
not straightforward but is now widely accepted. See Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution
(Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1989)

Appendix B
a)Friedrich Engels
Way back in 1887, Friedrich Engels, the famous Communist theorist, wrote this remarkably accurate prediction of the next war.
b)Ivan Bloch
Ivan Bloch was a Warsaw banker, railway planner, and campaigner against Russian anti-Semitism. In 1899, he wrote a book Is War Now Impossible?, in which he argued that its costs would be such that the inevitable result would be a struggle of attrition and eventual bankruptcy and famine. His hope was that by getting people to comprehend the vast costs and uncertainties of future war, he could forestall it. Though he was unsuccessful in that goal, he did at least get the muted privilege of being almost 100% right about its nature. For instance, see this direct extract from his book.
At first there will be increased slaughter – increased slaughter on so terrible a scale as to render it impossible to get troops to push the battle to a decisive issue.
entire dislocation of all industry and severing of all the sources of supply… the future of war [is] not fighting, but famine, not the slaying of men, but the bankruptcy of nations and the break-up of the whole social organization.
c)Pyotr Durnovo

Appendix C

1.  Background, 1904 to Aug.02.1914

==Apr.08 > The Anglo-French Convention is signed: the start of the Entente Cordial
==Apr.--- > A spy slips an early version of the Schlieffen Plan to the French (though the episode may have been a ruse) - ~rising concern in the French Army over the possibility of a war with Germany
==Aug.13 > Some French officers begin to suspect that Germany intends to attack through Belgium in the event of war

==early.1905 > The German General Staff begins serious studies on conducting a war against France and Britain
==Feb.20-May > French Chief of Staff Pendezac warns that the French Army may not be able to halt a German invasion
==Jul.20 > A British committee is formed to study the feasibility of an expeditionary force against Germany: ~it soon drops plans for landing in northern Germany or for seizing German colonies, and instead plans operations in France or Belgium
==Dec.20 > Retiring German Chief of Staff Schlieffen reiterates the necessity of an attack through Belgium in a war with France - the Schlieffen Plan is completed
==Dec.--- > The British Army draws up its first detailed plans for landing in France in the event of war
==1905 > British military theorist Henderson notes that modern weaponry has made frontal attacks suicidal
==1905 > ~The French Army begins to recover from the Dreyfus Affair: younger, more capable officers are entering the General Staff; French military professionalism is increasing

==Jan.01 > Moltke the Younger replaces Schlieffen as the German Chief of Staff
==Jan.17 > Serious Anglo-French staff talks begin - ~the idea of a British landing in northern Germany is rejected
==Sep.13 to 1910 > Haldane's reforms greatly strengthen the British Army

==Jan.01 > Haldane orders planning for a 120,000 man British Expeditionary Force - the origins of the BEF
==Mar.--- > French Intelligence concludes that the Russo-Japanese War was a “dazzling confirmation of the superiority of the offensive... and... the impotence of the defensive.”
==summer > Moltke begins altering the Schlieffen Plan: he increases the troop strength facing Russia and in Alsace-Lorraine, weakens the German right flank, and abandons the attack on Holland
==1907 > An eyewitness analysis of the Russo-Japanese War by British officer Ian Hamilton concludes that infantry by itself can't break a strong defense, regardless of its numbers or elan (see 1912)
==1907 > ~Germany is developing super-heavy siege artillery

==Oct.22 > The British Committee for Imperial Defense supports plans for the BEF to be sent to Flanders and France, rather than a Baltic expedition to Pomerania
==1908 > Colonel Grandmaison becomes French Operations chief: ~obsession with the offensive is written into French war plans
==1908 to 1911 > Ferdinand Foch heads the French War College, where he advocates extreme aggressiveness
==1908 > French intelligence obtains German mobilization plans and becomes aware that Germany may use its reserves as combat troops
==1908 to 1913 > Erich Ludendorff heads the General Staff’s Mobilization Section
==1908 > Most major European armies have incorporated machine gun teams with their infantry units

==Jan.02 > The retired German Chief of Staff Schlieffen openly publishes his plan in the journal Deutsche Revue
==Dec.23 > Albert I becomes King of Belgium
==Dec.--- > Henry Wilson visits the French War College, befriends Foch, and begins periodic tours of the French frontiers
==1909 > Commenting on heavy artillery to the French Chamber, a General Staff officer says: “Thank God we have none.”

==Jan.--- > When asked by Henry Wilson what the smallest useful British force for France would be, General Foch replies “A single British soldier - and we will see to it that he is killed.”
==May.--- > A German General Staff intelligence report warns that in a war with France, a quick and decisive victory is unlikely
==Aug.--- > Henry Wilson is named Director of British Military Operations - he intensifies joint planning with France
==1910 > ~Improving morale in the French army
==1910 > Commenting on machine guns, the French Director-General of Infantry says “Make no mistake. This weapon will change absolutely nothing.”

==Feb.--- > Colonel Grandmaison's electrifying lectures at the War College establish ‘offensive to the limit’ as French military doctrine
==Mar.--- > Henry Wilson completes the BEF’s mobilization schedule
==Mar.--- > ~Most British commanders are evidently convinced that in the event of war a large German offensive will roll through Belgium
==Jul.19 > Acting French Chief of Staff Michel offers a war plan that assumes the main German assault will come through Belgium, imposes an initially defensive role on the French army, and plans the use of reservists as front-line troops - his plan is voted down and he is sacked within two days
==Jul.20 > The Dubail-Wilson Agreement: without authorization, the Anglo-French military conference settles the details of military cooperation - Henry Wilson pledges a 150,000-man BEF, to be ready for action on the thirteenth day of mobilization
==end.Jul > Joseph Joffre is appointed French Chief of Staff
==Aug.13 > Winston Churchill sends a memo to Asquith on the first stages of a continental war, in which he accurately predicts the events of Aug-Sep 1914 and envisions a long war of attrition - the memo is contemptuously dismissed by Henry Wilson
==end.Sep > Britain is briefed on French war plans - ~Britain is committed to a strategy it didn't shape and doesn’t grasp
==Nov.28 > Henry Wilson meets Joffre and is finally given access to the French war plans - France gives Britain detailed deployment plans for the BEF
==1911 > German Chief of Staff Moltke suffers from heart disease and begins to physically decline

==Jan.17-20 > A British General Staff Conference de-emphasizes the importance of firepower - Brigadier Kiggell says “Victory is won actually by the bayonet...”
==Jan.--- > The British Army and the Royal Navy finally complete their plans for transporting the BEF to France
==Feb.21 > Joffre tells the French Cabinet that a general war will either bring a quick French victory or a drawn-out conflict - he does not expect Britain to play a major role
==May.10 > The Reichstag agrees to a massive increase in land forces: the start of the serious expansion of the German Army
==Sep.02 > Joffre reports to Poincaré that in the event of a general war, the Entente stands an excellent chance of victory
==Dec.19 > The Kaiser reassures King Albert that Germany does not intend to violate Belgian neutrality
==Dec.--- > The French Chamber debates replacing the highly visible red trousers of the army uniform - one deputy cries “Le pantalon rouge c’est la France!”
==1912 > In Compulsory Service, General Sir Ian Hamilton denigrates predictions of the decisiveness of firepower as “trash”   (see 1907)
==1912 > France revives the use of cavalry lances

==Jan.04 > Former German Chief of Staff Schlieffen dies at age 79, saying “It must come to a fight.  Only make the right wing strong.”
==Jan.--- > Ludendorff is removed from the General Staff after offending the War Minister
==Jun.30 > The German Reichstag passes a gigantic Army Bill
==Aug.07 > A French Army Bill is ratified that restores three year terms of service in response to the German buildup - ~rapid expansion causes disruption in the French Army until early 1914
==Aug.30 > Overdue Belgian army reforms are enacted - King Albert secures a Belgian universal conscription law
==Aug.--- > General Foch assumes command of the French XX Corps on the German frontier near Nancy
==Oct.28 > The new French Field Regulations begin “The French army, returning to its traditions, henceforth admits no law but the offensive.”
==1913 > Grouard's La Guerre eventuelle warns of the likelihood of a German attack on France through Belgium, predicting “...if we take the offensive at the outset we shall be beaten.”
==1913 > British Brigadier Haking declares that the offensive “will win as sure as there is a sun in the heavens,” regardless of the strength of the defense
==1913 > The German Army drops all plans for fighting a defensive war with limited aims - the Schlieffen Plan becomes the sole German military plan
==1913 > The influential German General Bernhardi advocates mass infantry attacks to bring victory by sheer force or “shock”

January to late June 1914
==Jan.--- > General Leman assumes command of the Belgian fortresses at Liège
==Feb.--- > General Gallieni retires, and is replaced by Lanrezac as commander of the 5th Army on the French left flank
==Apr.--- > French intelligence obtains the the German mobilization plans - the evidence that German reservists will be used as combat troops is ignored
==May.--- > The French Army officially adopts War Plan XVII - Joffre concentrates his forces against Alsace-Lorraine, leaving his left flank open
==May.--- > French intelligence is still predicting that the main German thrust will be in the Nancy-Verdun area and that Germany won’t use its reservists as combat troops
==Jun.13 > A French General Staff study greatly underestimates German military strength

The July Crisis: June 28-August 2, 1914
June 28-July 1914
==Jun.28. > The assassination of Franz Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo [1034.AM] - THE JULY CRISIS BEGINS
==Jul.13-14 > Angry debates in the French Senate over military preparedness - Senator Humbert reveals enormous French deficiencies relative to Germany
==Jul.19 > The first public hint of the impending European crisis - the powers begin to grow alarmed
==Jul.21 > French Ambassador Jules Cambon reports early signs of German war preparations
==Jul.23 > Austria delivers its ultimatum to Serbia [600.PM] - THE JULY CRISIS COMES OUT INTO THE OPEN
==Jul.23 > German officers’ leave is stopped
==Jul.25 > From Berlin, Ambassador Jules Cambon suggests that France quietly begin making military preparations - French generals are recalled
==Jul.26 > After learning of German military preparations, the French government recalls troops on leave [430.PM]
==Jul.27 > Ambassador Jules Cambon predicts that if Germany is threatened by a Russian mobilization it will immediately launch a crushing offensive against France
==Jul.27 > France orders the recall of most of its forces in Morocco and begins implementing railroad security
==Jul.28> Austria declares war on Serbia [1100.AM] - WORLD WAR I BEGINS
==Jul.28 > German War Minister Falkenhayn orders that all troops on maneuvers return to their garrisons
==Jul.29 > British government departments are instructed to implement war precautions [200.PM] - ~authorities throughout the British Empire are ordered to a state of readiness - ~The Committee for Imperial Defense War Book is opened
==Jul.29 > Belgium strengthens the fortifications at Liege
The BEF.
==Jul.30 > General Sir John French is designated the commander of the BEF
==Jul.30 > After receiving exaggerated reports of German preparations, Joffre asks permission to bring French frontier forces to wartime strength [700.AM] - France orders a cautious troop buildup near the German frontier, keeping its troops ten kilometers from the border [500.PM]
==Jul.31 > Belgium declares mobilization, to begin Aug.01
==Jul.31 > Germany declares a State of Imminent War [100.PM], allowing for martial law and the sealing of the frontiers
==Jul.31 > Fearing imminent war with Germany, General Joffre forcefully warns against delaying French mobilization [200.PM] - The French cabinet orders accelerated military preparations [540.PM]
The Northwestern Front.
==Jul.31 > Lanrezac, the commander of the French 5th Army, expresses concern over the possibility of a German advance through Belgium; Joffre ignores the memo

==Fearing a secret German mobilization, Joffre demands that by 400.PM France order a general mobilization [800.AM]
==The British cabinet decides to not immediately send the British Expeditionary Force to France [late morning]
== ~All strategic points in Britain are guarded by troops
==Aug.01 > Ambassador Below assures the Belgian government that “Belgium has nothing to fear from Germany.” [noon]
==France orders mobilization [355.PM], to begin at noon on Aug.02
==Germany orders a general mobilization [just after 500.PM]: the first day is to be Aug.02; as the order is issued in Berlin, the crowds break into the national hymn while officers drive around waving swords and handkerchiefs
==After receiving false reports that Britain will guarantee French neutrality, the euphoric Kaiser attempts to halt the mobilization against France and to redirect it toward Russia [dusk]; Chief of Staff Moltke is stunned, and possibly suffers a small stroke
==Aug.01 > Germany declares war on Russia [710.PM]: THE START OF WAR BETWEEN THE POWERS
==The first military moves in the west: German troops enter Luxembourg and seize Trois Vierges (Three Virgins) [700.PM], but are quickly withdrawn by the Kaiser, who still hopes to cut a last-minute deal with Britain - the Kaiser learns that reports of a British offer were untrue [1100.PM] and orders the advance on Luxembourg and Belgium to resume - German forces again enter Luxembourg and occupy the rail and telegraph stations at Trois Vierges [midnight], this time permanently
French Headquarters.
==Joffre curtly dismisses the concerns expressed by 3rd Army commander Ruffey that German forces will advance through Belgium

== ~Despite warnings from its Ambassador in Berlin, Belgium informs Britain that it does not intend to appeal to the powers to affirm its neutrality, and that it assumes that it will need no foreign aid to repel invaders [morning]
==Though the two countries are still at peace, there are eleven recorded German violations of the French border on this day: near Belfort, French Corporal André Peugeot becomes the first recorded fatality on the Western Front
==The French government gives Joffre full freedom of action [200.PM]; he moves his forces up to the German border
==Germany delivers a twelve-hour ultimatum to Belgium, demanding that German forces be allowed to pass through the country [720.PM] - a Council of State is held in Brussels [900.PM-400.AM]: Belgium resolves to resist Germany - acrimonious meetings are held through the night on military strategy - ~belated orders are issued to put the Liège forts in a state of defense
==German forces complete the occupation of Luxembourg [by night] - its government protests but does not resist
The Northwestern and Central Fronts.
==Concerned by the Belgian crisis, Joffre begins altering French Plan 17, moving Lanrezac’s 5th Army further left, and putting de Langley’s 4th Army in line to Lanrezac’s right [~night]
==French VII Corps is ordered to invade Alsace and to take Mulhouse and Huningen
==France declares a state of siege (ratified Aug.05), with martial law and military control of the railways
==Moltke is named the Commander-in-Chief of the German Field Armies
==German Army commanders are appointed
==Ludendorff is named liaison between the Liège assault force and 2nd Army command
==The Krupp works are urgently ordered to make their super-heavy 420 mm guns ready for use against the Liège forts
Appendix D

TABLE 6: UK output of selected items, 1913-1919
                               1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919

Steel, m tons           7.7      7.8  8.6   9.0  9.7      9.5       7.9
Aircraft, units                      245 1,933 6,149 14,748 32,018
Aero-engines, units                99 1,721 5,363 11,763 22,088
Tanks, units                                                  150 1,110 1,359
Artillery guns, units                    91 3,390 4,314 5,137 8,039
Trench mortars, units                   12 945 5,192 5,951 6,473
Machine guns, 000                    0.3 6.1 33.5 79.7 120.9
Rifles, 000                                       120 613 953 1,206 1,062
Shells, millions                                   0.5 7.4 51.6 87.7 69.8
Explosives, 000 tons                     5.7 29.4 139.2 328.9 280.4

Appendix E
Smart Bullets

Saturday, February 04, 2012
Smart Bullets
Smart Bullets
Andre Willers
4 Feb 2012

Synopsis :
Vernor Vinge's Smart Bullets have stimulated the Real-Time version .

Discussion :
In 1984 Vernor Vinge wrote an extrapolation called “The Peace War” , that featured smart bullets as an aside .

This stimulated fans to create the reality .,2817,2399607,00.asp
“Sandia National Laboratories said Monday that the facility has developed a self-guiding bullet, whose accuracy actually improves the longer it flies.
Red Jones and Brian Kast, with help from five others, designed the four-inch-long bullet, which includes an optical sensor, a battery, an 8-bit CPU, and small actuators to guide the flight. The creators estimated that the bullet could strike a target a mile away, with far greater accuracy than a ballistic bullet - within 8 inches of that target, as opposed to 9.8 yards using a conventional bullet.”

Reality Amplification by Stimulated Emission from Fantasy .

The bullet with your name on it .
Not only has it your name , but your picture , too .

How it works :
Still fairly primitive .
The shooter sees the target through some electronic scope , downloads the image to the bullet and fires it in the general direction of the target . The bullet does the rest .

Initially , the success rate will be high , but soon counter-measures will take place .

Machine-guns :
Many bullets in the air , but one target . What happens to the superfluous bullets ?

Cloud bullets :
Given the military mind-set , it seems a pity to waste all those bullets . So , the next step is a cloud of bullets with hierarchies of targets .
If one bullet tells the others that the target has been neutralized , the rest switch to lower-level targets .
The hierarchies being in morphs of the Target Zero face (ie family of the target )

After that , a loiter capability of even seconds will drastically alter the tactical protocols .

Friendly fire :
The battlefield air will be full of smart bullets , running into low-order targets . Also manufactured by the lowest bidder . With Electronic Counter Measures (ECM) , errors will happen .
The target will then be in banded probability zones .

This is reminiscent of Riemann orbitals .
See “Orders of Randomness 2” Aug 2008

Self-destruct :
Desirable , but difficult . How do you recall a bullet ?

Super-image decoy .
Easier to decoy them past the loiter time .

Theory :
See Fractal Compression and Decompression .
A super-image of any image can be formed , given the recognition parameters .

Gait parameters :
Facial recognition can easily be masked , but gait is difficult . Gait is also easier to recognize by the bullet . Random gait (smart shoes ,etc) brings us right back to Riemann orbitals .

Remember , these are cheap bullets meant to be fired by the million .

You will probably soon have iPhone apps that can give some measure of protection .

Chameleon , ho!


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