Friday, September 19, 2014

Naksh the Beautiful Conspirator .

Naksh the Beautiful Conspirator

Andre Willers
19 Sep 2014
One of the three Martinique Conspiracy (probability of 1 in 8.2 million)
Discussion :
1.Martinique conspiracy .
Three women claiming to be from as tiny and faraway place as you can think of ended up as Empresses .
1.1.Madame de Maintenon , unofficial Empress to Louis IV
1.2.Josephine Bonaparte , Empress to Napoleon
1.3.Aimee de Rivery , Empress of Turkey , Naksh the Beautiful

She was a convent teenager kidnapped by pirates and given to the Sultan of the Ottoman Empire as a virgin gift , her extraordinary beauty and sheer character
made her de-facto Empress of the Ottoman Empire .
See Appendix A
2. The probability of this (3 empresses)  happening by chance is very  small .
Chances are 1 in 8.2 million.
This is the odds that it is a conspiracy .
See Appendix E for calculation .
For comparison , odds for winning (5+bonus) in Lotto is 3,2 million .

3.See Appendix B for Madame de Maintenon

4. Appendix C is Conspiracies in general , and Appendix D is how conspiracies arise as result of hierarchies ,
5.Requirements for a conspirator’s background :
5.1 Remote , but still considered in civilization .
5.2 Difficult to check
5.3 Slow communications
5.4 Acceptable reason for not appearing in electronic intercept and monitoring records .
Islands are now too difficult .
Third world countries with porous borders , history of civil wars and a colonial past seems to meet the criteria .
Is this your boss ?
6.Open conspiracies leads to stupidity at the top .
The lower echelons are open to anybody , but rising through the hierarchy involves joining in more and more conspiracies .
Unfortunately , this lowers the competency all round , as belonging to the conspiracy is more important than being smart .
7.This means that the Martinique Conspiracy is an old , open conspiracy .
The three above were probably juniors too smart for their own good .
Watch out for beautiful women with fancy nails and a fondness for snakes .
8. Relations with other Conspiracies .
Frosty . They were , after all , hiding when nobody we know of was looking .
The safest place for now would be 2/3 of the way up the hierarchy  in security organizations like Homeland Security in the US .
9. For an interesting treatment of the subject , read “In the Country of the Blind” by Michael Flynn
“In the nineteenth century, a small group of American idealists managed to actually build Charles Babbage’s Analytical Engine and use it to develop Cliology, mathematical models that could chart the likely course of the future. Soon they were working to alter history’s course as they thought best. By our own time, the Society has become the secret master of the world. “ Then the fun starts…
Conspiratorially yours
Appendix A
Martinique Conspiracy:
1.Madame de Maintenon , unofficial Empress to Louis IV
2.Josephine Bonaparte , Empress to Napoleon
3.Aimee de Rivery , Empress of Turkey , Naksh the Beautiful

See also
“1808-17 Politically Influential Nakşidil Valide Sultan of The Ottoman Empire (Covering Turkey, Greece, The Balcans, parts of the Middle East and Northern Africa)
An apocryphal story has it that she was originally Marie Martha Aimée Dubuc de Rivéry - cousin of Empress Joséphine Tascher de la Pagerie of France. She was supposed to have been captured by pirates and sold to the slave marked of Istanbul and presented to Abdülhamid and acted as his advisor 1733-73. After his death his brother, Sultan Selim III asked her to remain at the Seraglio harem with her son, Mahmud his nephew. She acted as his advisor and apparently taught him French; and for the first time, a permanent ambassador was sent from Istanbul to Paris. Selim was assassinated in 1807 by religious fanatics who disapproved of his liberalism. The assassins also sought to kill Mahmud, but Nakshedil saved her son by concealing him inside a fumace. Thus Mahmud became the next Sultan, accomplishing significant reforms in the empire that are, for the most part, attributed to the influence of his mother. She lived (1768-1817).”

Appendix B
Appendix C
Appendix D
Appendix E
Estimated populations from McEvedy
(1)France                  1700 CE  22m
(2)France                  1800 CE  29m
(3)Ottoman Empire   1800 CE  24m
Probability Pr = 1 – p(non)
P(1) prob that element 1 is not in population (1)  = [1 –1/22  * 10^(-6) ]
P(2) prob that element 2 is not in population (2)  = [1 - 1/29  * 10^(-6) ]
P(3) prob that element 3 is not in population (3)  = [1 - 1/24  * 10^(-6) ]
France 1700
France 1800
pnons multiplied
prob=1-(pnons multiplied)
1/prob =
8 223 416

Chances are 1 in 8.2 million.


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