New Crimean War
2 Mar 2014
Attempts to prevent escalation of the Ukrainian conflict by preventing Western reinforcements via the Dardanelles Straights will lead to the very escalation it was meant to avoid .
1.See what happened before in 1914 :
The pursuit of Goeben and Breslau was a naval action that occurred in the Mediterranean Sea at the outbreak of the First World Warwhen elements of the British Mediterranean Fleet attempted to intercept the German Mittelmeerdivision comprising the battlecruiserSMS Goeben and the light cruiser SMS Breslau. The German ships evaded the British fleet and passed through the Dardanelles to reachConstantinople, where their arrival was a catalyst that contributed to the Ottoman Empire joining the Central Powers by issuing adeclaration of war against the Triple Entente.
Though a bloodless "battle", the failure of the British pursuit had enormous political and military ramifications—in the words of Winston Churchill, they brought "more slaughter, more misery, and more ruin than has ever before been borne within the compass of a ship."
Strategically , preventing access to the Black Sea of Allied Naval Forces enabled the piecemeal destruction of Russian armies by Germans , not to mention enabling the triumph of Bolshevism
2. The same strategic considerations hold today .
Hence the present political shenanigans in Turkey .
3.Needless to say , Turkey now would not be cowed by a single battlecruiser .
4. I cannot see any way of forcing the Dardanelles without using nukes .
5. This essentially means that the Crimea is now a province of the Russian Union .
That means that the Ukraine is split .
6. The rest is just sound and fury .
Isn’t Geopolitics fun ?