Sunday, March 13, 2011

Japanese Economy post-quake

Japanese economy post Quake of March 11 2011
Andre Willers
14 Mar 2011

Synopsis :
There will be a short downturn , then an upturn to about 7% growthrate for at least 10 years . Expect major socio-economic changes .

Discussion :
Growthrates after the collapse of the property market in the 1990's remained low because :
1.The Japanese people were rich and in a comfort zone .
2.Structural problems in the economy could not be fixed because of voter inertia .

This is all about to change .

The destruction due to the quake is far less than the Japanese Reserves .

But the shock to the system will not die down , but escalate at least until 2013 .

See "Solar Storms" Mar 3 , 2011
Expect political instability of the same scale as recently seen in the Middle East .

The Japanese system has been kicked out an attractor basin of comfortable torpor into another , more active attractor basin .

Expect some interesting times in the Far East .
Some consequences :
1.Japanese military spending will increase sharply .
2.Demand for commodities will increase sharply .
3.R&D expenditure will increase sharply , especially Space Endeavours .
4.A search for a proper solution to the high ratio of elderly . Most likely tapping them as a source of Wisdom and Experience , using a Facebook type environment . Very lucrative and wealth-creating .
5.Competition with China to increase greatly , especially oil and gas .
6.This will raise the problem of Taiwan again .
7.Japanese emigration to fertile , more stable land areas to increase drastically , with government support . Australia could benefit tremendously , especially the MacKenzie Basin , which is in dire need of high-tech resuscitation .

All this will require funding .
Cashing in US bonds would be self-limiting , as it would depress the whole global economy . Some enterprising bank will make a fortune collaterising Japanese foreign assets for immediate expansion funds .

This is dedicated to the victims of the March 11 , 2011 earthquake and tsunami .

Their deaths will not have been in vain .


Appendix A
Some background can be obtained at "Solar Storms" Mar 3 , 2011 "Money" Oct , 2008 Various "Financial Crises" posts
Search for "Destruction of Money" arguments .


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