Andre Willers

10 Nov 2012

“But I have promises to keep

And miles to go before I sleep.” Frost

“March or die “ French Foreign Legion.

“Eppur si muove” Gallilleo

Synopsis:

RLS is a beneficial mutation . The itchy feet that explores new territory and spreads population out . Justified as “promises to keep” , hence the concept of “duty” .

Discussion :

Delicious !

Soldiers and Researchers are driven by the same thing . The inability to stay still during the night . Both do their best work at night , and excel at catnapping .

Both make bad bed-partners . Not the sex , but the restlessness .

Scientists are notorious for burning the midnight oil and separate bedrooms , while Watch-Periods and barrack-bunk spaces in the military are optimized to minimize the problem .

Horses :

The back-and-forth motions of a rider’s legs , involving voluntary leg-muscle clenchings is taken as a suitable substitute for walking by a RLS individual . This is only true if stirrups are involved . The Roman saddle-horns do not qualify (the long walking muscles are not involved , and does not trigger dopamine responses in the brain. No reward , no cavalrymen . Being cavalry was a near-sexual experience . More so for horsewomen using split stirrups .)

How many RLS persons can we expect in a given population group ?

The evolutionary argument is that it is dependant on the reserves of the total group .

See Appendix II

We know that from general previous arguments to be about 1/3 . But the group cannot afford to risk it’s full reserves , but can afford to risk 1/3 of it’s reserves for the same reasons .

1/3*1/3 = 1/9 = 0.111

About 11% of the population . Note that this is the sum of the Nomads and Scientists . The more nomads , the fewer Scientists .

This is approximately in line with numbers from McEvedy’s “Atlas of world population history”

Things start to get interesting after 1700 AD . Mechanical agriculture and the Industrial Revolution exponentially increased Reserves , until in 2012 we expect the number of Scientists plus Nomads to be about 0.11*7Bn =770 million. An awful lot .

What does this mean ?

1.Rapid change and adoption of things like cell-phones , internet etc even in very poor communities .

2.Nomads becoming Scientists on an increasing scale .

3.Real Nomads developing an increasing pressure to burst out and explore new sociological and religious territories . Something like the Arab Spring , etc . Revolution is in the air .

4.The system is ready to explore new territories , in science and socio-economics .

5.Probable pathways :

5.1 Ostrum Principles : See Appendix III

5.2 New Physics : See Appendix IV

See where your itchy feet and restless legs have led you ?

Mother always told you to stay at home .

Andre

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Appendix I

More data on RLS

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Restless_legs_syndrome

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Appendix II

See Optimal Reserves from para 2 below “Infinite Probes”

New Tools

Andre Willers

4 Nov 2008

For convenience , I will summarize new ways of thinking about things developed in these discussions:

New tools not found anywhere else :

1.Orders of Randomness

Randomness of order stronger than the flipping of a coin exist .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” et al

2. Infinite Probes

Universal optimization of reserves , markups and profits

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes” et al

3. Exchange Rates

Symmetry-break in delineated phase spaces a characteristic of this Universe .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Financial Crisis 2008:Exchange Rates” et al

4.Artificial Intelligence

The definition of sapient intelligences , with an appropriate notational system .

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Artificial Intelligence” et al

These , combined with existing knowledge and understanding , enables us to probe deeper .

Regards

Andre

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Appendix II

From para 2 above : Infinite Probes

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes” circa Apr 2008

Infinite Probes 2

Andre Willers

30 April 2008

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes’

From discussing this with various recipients , there seems to be a need for a simpler explanation . I thought I had explained it in the simplest fashion possible . The subject matter is inherently complex .

But , here goes .

How much must you save ?

If you save too little , a random fluctuation can wipe you out .

If you save too much , you lose opportunity costs . If you are in competition , this loss can be enough to lose the competition (ie you die)

Intuitively , you can realize there is an optimum level of saving .

Methods exist of calculating this optimum in very specific instances (ie portfolios of shares ,eg Kelly criteria , or tactics in war eg MiniMax ) .

The General Case

We need to hold a Reserve in case Something goes wrong . But we do not know what thing goes wrong .

Infinite Probes tries to answer the general case . What is really , really surprising is that a answer is possible .

The Infinite bit comes from using the mathematical expansion of the Definition of Eulers Constant e = ( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)

Where n!= n*(n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)*…*(1)

This approaches a constant , widely used in mathematics and physics .

(e = 2.718…) .

All we need is a system that can be subdivided indefinitely (to infinity) .

First , we divide by 1

Then 2

Then 3

Then 4

And so forth till infinity .

What is important is not that we do know what these divisions are , only that they are possible . We also do not know which one element goes wrong .

The other critical insight is that it is the relation between elements that is important . (Permutations) (The failure of an element in total isolation cannot affect the whole system by definition .)

We can count the number of relationships where there is failure of one element .

It is n! , where n is number of divisions where only one failure .

Multiple failures are handled by summing :

Our Reserve(R ) is divided by n to infinity and summed .

TotReserve= R*( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)

TotReserve= R * e

To find the boundaries of our Reserve , we set TotReserve = Cost

Then

R = 1/e * Cost

R ~ 0.37 * Cost

What does this mean?

This method measures the upper boundary of the reserve needed to survive failures in any element of the Cost-Universe . Ie , internal fluctuations .

This is the surprising bit . Any society that keeps at least 37% reserves , can only be destroyed by something outside it’s envelope . It is internally stable , no matter what .

Empires like the Ancient Egyptians , Romans , Chinese are possible , as long as there is no climactic fluctuation , new inventions , diseases ,etc . Rare events . Hence the technological stasis of old civilizations . The two are synonymous .

This is true at any scale (except quantal , by definition.) .

Individuals too . Humans can be seen as empires of noospheres .

The upper boundary does not take any double-counting into account . It is true for any system whatsoever .

A truly remarkable precise result from such general axioms .

The Lower Boundaries .

This is where it gets interesting .

Remember , we are just counting the number of ways in which permutations of one element can fail . We then sum them to get the effect of the failures of other elements

The easiest is the business that just starts and is not selling anything . It fails on n elements on every term . It’s floor capital must then be

R=Cost/(1+e)

R=0.27*Cost

This is the initial reserve to get off the ground .

This is true in any ecosystem . This is why it is so difficult to start a new business , or why a new species cannot succeed . Or why waves of pandemics are scarcer .

For the epidemically minded , this 10% difference is responsible for the demise of the Black Death ( smallpox outcompeted bubonic plaque variants for the CR5 access site.Ironically , the reason why we have only a limited HIV plague is the high competition for this site , probably some flu vectors . As one would expect , the incidence of HIV then becomes inversely proportional to connectivity (ie flights) .

A cessation of airplane flights will then lead to a flare-up of diseases like these .

Not exactly what anybody has in mind . )

When we find that we really need the spread of infectious vectors to stay healthy , then we know we have really screwed ourselves .

These are the two main boundaries .

The literature is full of other limits the series can approach . Keep a clear head on what the physical significance is .

Fat

I cannot leave the subject without the thing closest to human hearts : appearance .

Fat and fitness .

Sadly , the present fad for leanness is just that . The period of superfluous food is coming to an end .

Rich individuals can afford to be lean because the reserves are in the monetary wealth Women have to bear children individually , so they cannot store the needed reserves externally . Hence their fat storage is close to the theoretical optimum even in Western societies (33%) . In other societies the percentage is about 37-40% .

Human males have been bred (Mk III humans) for muscle and little fat (8% in a superbly fit male) . He does not have reserves to withstand even garrison duty (even little diseases will lay him low .) Note the frequent references to diseases laying whole armies low .

Note what is left out : the camp-followers . They survived The women and babyfat children . Every army seeded the invaded area with women and children .

The bred soldier has to eat a high-carb food frequently : not meat or fat , his body cannot store it . This is the definition of a wheat-eating legionary .

Ho ! Ho! Ho!

The Atkinson diet .

No wonder it does not make sense in evolutionary terms .

Mesomorphic humans have been bred not to transform expensive proteins and fats into bodymass .

The soldier-class were kept on a carbohydrate leash , which could only be supplied by farming .

The Smell of Horses .

Horses exude pheromones that promote body-leanness in humans . This has an obvious advantage to horses . Horses are breeding jockeys .

The time-span is enough : at least 8 000 years . (400 generations)

Because pregnant women cannot ride horses , there was a selection pressure to breed horses who have a pheromone that block female dominance pheromones , especially since females have to weigh more because of fat-reserve considerations .

Outside a farming environment , horses will sculpt their riders as much as the riders are sculpting them .

Small Mongolian ponies , small Mongolians .

This is why alpha-males like horses and horse-dominated societies were able to conquer and keep matriarchies .

Note the effect of the pheromones on women riders . Androgeny .

On males it becomes extreme blockage of oestrogen . It seems like a surge of male hormones , but it is just an imbalance . (If too much male hormones , the men just kill their horses )

This is why the auto-mobile had such a big sociological effect . No horses , so the men became more effeminate .

Want to be Lean and Mean ?

Sniff Horse sweat pheromone .

Perfumiers take note .

Dogs

The other leg of the human-horse-dog triumvirate .

Dogs accept female pack-leaders and have evolutionary reasons for blocking horse inhibitions of human female pheromones .

While the males are away , the females look after and rely on the dogs .

(The reason why Mongols ride from yurt to yurt: they are too scared of the dogs.)

With dogs around , the male testosterone activity is ameliorated . This is a well known effect , especially if horses are around .

Hence the female love of lap-dogs . They are actually quite ferocious , and exude large amounts of pheromones that soothes the savage male breast .

Your attention is drawn to the Pekinese lapdog , which has had a disproportionately large effect on human history .

If this sounds convoluted , it is because this is exactly how this type of bio-system operates : by inhibitions of inhibitions of inhibitions ,etc .

Andre

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Appendix III

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com Oct 2011

How to avoid The Tragedy of the Commons .

The Ostrum Game

Andre Willers

30 Oct 2011

“One Game shall bind them all .” , ( with apologies to Tolkien)

“This time , we know for sure the grass is greener somewhere”

“A Revolution , any Revolution.”

Synopsis :

A Game for Grown-ups .

The Eight Ostrum Design Principles are Meta-rules that generate self-consistent sets of rules that encompasses competition , co-operation , catastrophe , hierarchies and other systems undreamt of , all between discrete , interacting , self-organising systems .

Your avatar can go from SecondLife to Simworld , to War Worlds , to any desired locale .

Reality becomes a subset .

Discussion :

1.An incredible amount of money can be made .While money still has some meaning .

Without too much work . See Para 8 in Appendix A

Each Game Company is a base nested institution .

They bind easily together , releasing a lot of energy and money .

Explosive Feedback Synergism .

A run-up to the Singularity .

2.Feedback between Games and Reality :

The Meta-rules make no differentiation between Game-characters and Real-characters .

Indeed , many Real-characters have been spun into Game-characters , and vice-versa .

Think Sherlock Holmes , MacGyver , Gauss , young Werther etc

See “mirror-neuron networks” , any soap opera , etc .

Real-life problems get treated the same way as Game problems . The more diverse and sophisticated the Game interactions become , the more effect on any real or Game system .

Eventually , they become undistinguishable as technology progresses .

3.The Grass is provably greener somewhere .

Long known as a wishful thinking fallacy , until Ostrum published the Design Principles in 1990 .

This was the trigger event of under-the-surface knowledge about Ostrum Rules building up .

Suddenly , it became possible .

A Phase-change in the noosphere occurred .

It meant that a Disaster of the Commons or an Empire was not inevitable . Grandchildren could survive .

WE CAN MAKE THE GRASS GREENER , EVEN IF WE HAVE TO PAINT IT ONE BLADE AT A TIME .

Enormous tensions began surfacing . These effects are still playing out now .

A really , really major Hysterical Focus started forming , and is still intensifying .

Now , are you surprised that 1990 was the year of huge revolutions , when the USSR collapsed ?

The Ostrum Game beat the Ring of Power .

And you have not seen anything yet .

The pace of Revolutions is intensifying .

A good thing , if Homo wishes to escape extinction .

4.Automating Ostrum Rules :

They might be Meta-rules , but they are still rules .

We can certainly write programs that can serve to guide past most of the pitfalls and suggest alternatives .

5.Multicellular Bodies as Commons :

We can certainly analyze bodies in terms of Commons . The Dear Reader will find many interesting things if he does that .

Note the emphasis on communication .

Talk to your body . Aloud . And listen in the silences in between .

Create a virtual body and note the interactions .

Use the Ostrum Design principles .

6.Singularity :

It is immediately obvious that humans are then not limited to Real biochemical definitions of personality . The emphasis on communication means that personalities are distributed across Real and Game spaces . The Game space personality segments are only limited by internal non-contradictory rules . That can be done via Ostrum Design principles .

Not exactly instantaneous , but I can intuit that the time can be calculated . It would be less than real time .

The putative developing system would have ethical constraints on abandoning Real-part personalities under Ostrum Rules .

Told you it would be kindler , gentler .

7.Phase Change :

The system has already undergone an irrevocable phase change in 1990 .

You can fast-forward the rest .

8.Did Ostrum know what she was unleashing ?

The Revolutionary aspects , nearly certainly .

In her quiet way , she is one of the greatest Revolutionaries in Homo Sapiens history . Worthy of being called a Matriarch .

The Singularity aspect is more uncertain . She certainly knew that she unleashed major fairness , but the phase-change in the Noosphere I do not know .

Still , a tour-de-force .

How do feel like being a pet of your avatar ?

Andre .

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Appendix A

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elinor_Ostrom

To quote from Wiki : (comments in brackets are my own ).

“ Ostrom identifies eight "design principles" of stable local common pool resource management:[10]

1. Clearly defined boundaries (effective exclusion of external un-entitled parties;

2. Rules regarding the appropriation and provision of common resources that are adapted to local conditions; (Equal sharing of debts and rewards)

3. Collective-choice arrangements that allow most resource appropriators to participate in the decision-making process; (Consensus decisions-no leveraged hierarchies)

4. Effective monitoring by monitors who are part of or accountable to the appropriators; (Policing)

5. A scale of graduated sanctions for resource appropriators who violate community rules; (Opportunity to learn from mistakes )

6. Mechanisms of conflict resolution that are cheap and of easy access; (Fair and Fast Justice . See how Inquisitorial Justice systems like Chinese , French or Sharia does it.)

7. Self-determination of the community recognized by higher-level authorities; (Autonomy within clearly defined levels . Something like a Federation.)

8. In the case of larger common-pool resources,organization in the form of multiple layers of nested enterprises, with small local CPRs at the base level. (Clear and quick relations with others. A potential sticky point with states.)

Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action Ostrom, Elinor, Cambridge University Press, 1990 “

The most important book in the Twentieth Century .

Try to read it .

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Appendix IV

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness 2” Aug 2008 and other related posts .

Steering Randomness is equivalent to manipulating Quantum states in the old nomenclature .

Orders of Randomness 2

Andre Willers

15 Aug 2008

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : “Orders of Randomness”

I have been requested to expand a little on orders of Randomness and what it means .

Please note that human endeavours at this date use only randomness of the order of flipping a coin ( Beth(0) )

Aleph is the first letter of the Hebrew Alphabet . It was used by Cantor to denote

Classes of Infinity (ie Aleph(0) for Rational numbers , Aleph(1) for Irrational Numbers , etc

Beth is the second letter of the Hebrew Alfabet . It means “House”

I will first repeat the derivation of Orders of Randomness from http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : “Orders of Randomness” because it is so important .

----------------xxxxxx

Start Quote:

First , simple Randomness .

Flip of a coin .

Heads or Tails . 0 or 1

Flip an unbiased coin an infinite number of times ,write it down below each other and do it again .

All possible 0 and 1’s

An example : Beth(0)

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Flips(1) 0,1,1,1,1,… etc

Flips(2) 0,1,1,1,0,… etc

.

Flips(infinity) 0,0,0,0,0,0,…etc

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This describes all possible states in a delineated binary universe .

“delineated binary” means a two sided coin which cannot land on it’s side .

Now draw a diagonal line from the top left of Flips(1) to Flips(infinity) .

At every intersection of this diagonal line with a horizontal line , change the value .

The Diagonal Line of (0,1)’s is then not in the collection of all possible random

Horizontal coin-Flips(x) .

This means the Diagonal Line is of a stronger order of randomness .

This is also the standard proof of an Irrational Number .

This is the standard proof of aleph numbers .

Irrational numbers ,etc

Since any number can be written in binary (0,1) , we can infer that the order of randomness is the same as aleph numbers .

This means we can use number theory in Randomness systems .

Very important .

Google Cantor (or Kantor)

Define coin-flip Randomness as Beth(0) , analogous to Aleph(0)

Then we have at least Beth(1) , randomness an order stronger than flipping a coin .

Then we can theorize Beth(Omega) <->Aleph(Omega) .

End Quote

----------------xxxxxx

Cardinal Numbers .

The cardinal number is the index x of Aleph(x) .

Cantor proved that

Aleph(n+1) = 2 ^ Aleph( n )

Where n is the cardinal number of the infinity .

Tying them together :

He also proved that

P(A) = 2^ n

Where A is any set , P(A) is the PowerSet of A and n is the cardinal number of set A

Thus , Cardinal Number of P(A) =(n+1)

The PowerSet of A = the Set of all subsets of A .

This sounds fancy , but it is simply all the different ways you can combine the elements of set A . All the ways you can chop up A .

You can see it easily in a finite binomial expansion (1+1)^n = P(A) = 2^n

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : “Infinite Probes”

There we also chop and dice , using infinite series .

Can you see how it all ties together ?

Why 2 ?

This derives from the Delineation Axiom . Remember , we can only talk about something if it is distinct and identifiable from something else . This gives a minimum of 2 states : part or non-part .

That is why the Zeta-function below is described on a 2-dimensional plane , or pesky problems like Primes always boil down to 2 dimensions of some sort .

This is why the irrational numbers play such an important part in physics .

Z=a+ib describes a 2-dimensional plane useful for delineated systems without feedback systems

Its in the axiom of Delineation , dummy .

But we know that Russell proved that A+~A

The easiest way to see it is in Bayesian systems . If Beth(x) systems are included , Bayesian systems become orders of magnitude more effective .

Life , civilization and markets are such . See below .

Conservation Laws :

By definition , these can always be written in a form of

SomeExpression = 0

Random (Beth(0) Walk in Euclidean 2-dimensions

This is a powerful unifying principle derived from the Delineation Axiom .

In Random Walk the Distance from the Center is = d * (n)^0.5 . This is a property of Euclidean systems .

(Where d = step , n=number of random beth(0) steps)

Immediately we can say that the only hope of the Walker returning to the center after an infinity of Beth(0) steps is if d ~ 1/(n)^0.5 . This is the Riemann Hypothesis .

Now , see a Universum of 2-dimensional descriptors z=a+ib

Sum all of them . Add together all the possible things that can be thus described .

This can be done as follows :

From z=a+ib Raise both sides to the e

e^(z) = e^(a) . e^i(b)

Raise both sides to the ln(j) power where j is real integers.

j^(z) = j^(a) . e^(b/ln(j))

Now , sum them :

Zeta=Sum of j^(z) for j=1 to infinity

Now we extract all possible statements that embody some Conservation Law . Beth(1)

This means that Zeta is zero for the set of extracted statements if and only if (b/ln(j)) is of the order of Beth(0) and a=(-1/2)

Tensors .

The above is a definition of a tensor for a discontinous function .

Riemann’s Zeta function.

This can describe any delineated system .

If Zeta = 0 , conservation laws apply .

Zeta = Sigma(1/j )^z for j=1,2,3,…,infinity and z=a+ib , where z is complex and i =(-1)^0.5

The z bit is in two dimensions as discussed above .

This function has a deep underlying meaning for infinite systems .

If you unpack the Right-Hand side on a x-yi plane you get a graph that looks like a random walk .

If every point is visited that a random walk would visit over infinity (ie all) , without clumping , then Zeta can only be non-trivially zero if a=(-1/2) .

Why (x – yi) plane ? See “Why 2 “ above . The system is fractal . Two dimensions are necessary in any delineated system .

Remember , randomwalk distance from origin = step*sqrt(number of steps) .

So if the steps = 1/ ( sqrt(number of steps) ) , then the Origin might be reached if and only if a= -1/2

This is easily proven .

If a= - 1/2 , then b can be any real function . This would include Beth(0) and Beth(1) , but not higher orders of beth .

If a= -1/2 and b is an unreal number , then a cannot be equal to -1/2 anymore . Conservation cannot hold at any level .

Consequences:

Conservation Laws can only hold for Beth(0) and Beth(1) systems .

This is forced by the two dimensions of delineation .

Mathematically , this means that Beth(2+) systems of feedbacks can only be described in terms of attractors or/and fractal systems (ie not in isolation)

Physically , conservation of energy and momentum need not hold for Beth(2+) systems .

This has an interesting corollary in decryption (unpacking) . A Beth(2) mind unpacking Beth(0) or Beth(1) encryption is functionally equivalent to Non-Conservation of Energy .

Some other consequences :

If a< -½ , then Riemannian Orbitals are described . Beth(any) Also described as nuclei , atoms . If a> -½ , then a diffuse cloud is described . Beth(any)

Also described as magnetic effects .

What does this mean?

Present technology uses Beth(x) technology in a rather haphazard way .(Quantum physics) .

A better understanding will bring about a sudden change in capability .

Andre

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

## No comments:

Post a Comment