10 Nov 2012
“But I have promises to keep
And miles to go before I sleep.” Frost
“March or die “ French Foreign Legion.
“Eppur si muove” Gallilleo
RLS is a beneficial mutation . The itchy feet that explores new territory and spreads population out . Justified as “promises to keep” , hence the concept of “duty” .
Soldiers and Researchers are driven by the same thing . The inability to stay still during the night . Both do their best work at night , and excel at catnapping .
Both make bad bed-partners . Not the sex , but the restlessness .
Scientists are notorious for burning the midnight oil and separate bedrooms , while Watch-Periods and barrack-bunk spaces in the military are optimized to minimize the problem .
The back-and-forth motions of a rider’s legs , involving voluntary leg-muscle clenchings is taken as a suitable substitute for walking by a RLS individual . This is only true if stirrups are involved . The Roman saddle-horns do not qualify (the long walking muscles are not involved , and does not trigger dopamine responses in the brain. No reward , no cavalrymen . Being cavalry was a near-sexual experience . More so for horsewomen using split stirrups .)
How many RLS persons can we expect in a given population group ?
The evolutionary argument is that it is dependant on the reserves of the total group .
See Appendix II
We know that from general previous arguments to be about 1/3 . But the group cannot afford to risk it’s full reserves , but can afford to risk 1/3 of it’s reserves for the same reasons .
1/3*1/3 = 1/9 = 0.111
About 11% of the population . Note that this is the sum of the Nomads and Scientists . The more nomads , the fewer Scientists .
This is approximately in line with numbers from McEvedy’s “Atlas of world population history”
Things start to get interesting after 1700 AD . Mechanical agriculture and the Industrial Revolution exponentially increased Reserves , until in 2012 we expect the number of Scientists plus Nomads to be about 0.11*7Bn =770 million. An awful lot .
What does this mean ?
1.Rapid change and adoption of things like cell-phones , internet etc even in very poor communities .
2.Nomads becoming Scientists on an increasing scale .
3.Real Nomads developing an increasing pressure to burst out and explore new sociological and religious territories . Something like the Arab Spring , etc . Revolution is in the air .
4.The system is ready to explore new territories , in science and socio-economics .
5.Probable pathways :
5.1 Ostrum Principles : See Appendix III
5.2 New Physics : See Appendix IV
See where your itchy feet and restless legs have led you ?
Mother always told you to stay at home .
More data on RLS
See Optimal Reserves from para 2 below “Infinite Probes”
4 Nov 2008
For convenience , I will summarize new ways of thinking about things developed in these discussions:
New tools not found anywhere else :
1.Orders of Randomness
Randomness of order stronger than the flipping of a coin exist .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness” et al
2. Infinite Probes
Universal optimization of reserves , markups and profits
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes” et al
3. Exchange Rates
Symmetry-break in delineated phase spaces a characteristic of this Universe .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Financial Crisis 2008:Exchange Rates” et al
The definition of sapient intelligences , with an appropriate notational system .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Artificial Intelligence” et al
These , combined with existing knowledge and understanding , enables us to probe deeper .
From para 2 above : Infinite Probes
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes” circa Apr 2008
Infinite Probes 2
30 April 2008
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Infinite Probes’
From discussing this with various recipients , there seems to be a need for a simpler explanation . I thought I had explained it in the simplest fashion possible . The subject matter is inherently complex .
But , here goes .
How much must you save ?
If you save too little , a random fluctuation can wipe you out .
If you save too much , you lose opportunity costs . If you are in competition , this loss can be enough to lose the competition (ie you die)
Intuitively , you can realize there is an optimum level of saving .
Methods exist of calculating this optimum in very specific instances (ie portfolios of shares ,eg Kelly criteria , or tactics in war eg MiniMax ) .
The General Case
We need to hold a Reserve in case Something goes wrong . But we do not know what thing goes wrong .
Infinite Probes tries to answer the general case . What is really , really surprising is that a answer is possible .
The Infinite bit comes from using the mathematical expansion of the Definition of Eulers Constant e = ( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
Where n!= n*(n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)*…*(1)
This approaches a constant , widely used in mathematics and physics .
(e = 2.718…) .
All we need is a system that can be subdivided indefinitely (to infinity) .
First , we divide by 1
And so forth till infinity .
What is important is not that we do know what these divisions are , only that they are possible . We also do not know which one element goes wrong .
The other critical insight is that it is the relation between elements that is important . (Permutations) (The failure of an element in total isolation cannot affect the whole system by definition .)
We can count the number of relationships where there is failure of one element .
It is n! , where n is number of divisions where only one failure .
Multiple failures are handled by summing :
Our Reserve(R ) is divided by n to infinity and summed .
TotReserve= R*( 1 + 1/2! + 1/ 3! + … 1/n! + …)
TotReserve= R * e
To find the boundaries of our Reserve , we set TotReserve = Cost
R = 1/e * Cost
R ~ 0.37 * Cost
What does this mean?
This method measures the upper boundary of the reserve needed to survive failures in any element of the Cost-Universe . Ie , internal fluctuations .
This is the surprising bit . Any society that keeps at least 37% reserves , can only be destroyed by something outside it’s envelope . It is internally stable , no matter what .
Empires like the Ancient Egyptians , Romans , Chinese are possible , as long as there is no climactic fluctuation , new inventions , diseases ,etc . Rare events . Hence the technological stasis of old civilizations . The two are synonymous .
This is true at any scale (except quantal , by definition.) .
Individuals too . Humans can be seen as empires of noospheres .
The upper boundary does not take any double-counting into account . It is true for any system whatsoever .
A truly remarkable precise result from such general axioms .
The Lower Boundaries .
This is where it gets interesting .
Remember , we are just counting the number of ways in which permutations of one element can fail . We then sum them to get the effect of the failures of other elements
The easiest is the business that just starts and is not selling anything . It fails on n elements on every term . It’s floor capital must then be
This is the initial reserve to get off the ground .
This is true in any ecosystem . This is why it is so difficult to start a new business , or why a new species cannot succeed . Or why waves of pandemics are scarcer .
For the epidemically minded , this 10% difference is responsible for the demise of the Black Death ( smallpox outcompeted bubonic plaque variants for the CR5 access site.Ironically , the reason why we have only a limited HIV plague is the high competition for this site , probably some flu vectors . As one would expect , the incidence of HIV then becomes inversely proportional to connectivity (ie flights) .
A cessation of airplane flights will then lead to a flare-up of diseases like these .
Not exactly what anybody has in mind . )
When we find that we really need the spread of infectious vectors to stay healthy , then we know we have really screwed ourselves .
These are the two main boundaries .
The literature is full of other limits the series can approach . Keep a clear head on what the physical significance is .
I cannot leave the subject without the thing closest to human hearts : appearance .
Fat and fitness .
Sadly , the present fad for leanness is just that . The period of superfluous food is coming to an end .
Rich individuals can afford to be lean because the reserves are in the monetary wealth Women have to bear children individually , so they cannot store the needed reserves externally . Hence their fat storage is close to the theoretical optimum even in Western societies (33%) . In other societies the percentage is about 37-40% .
Human males have been bred (Mk III humans) for muscle and little fat (8% in a superbly fit male) . He does not have reserves to withstand even garrison duty (even little diseases will lay him low .) Note the frequent references to diseases laying whole armies low .
Note what is left out : the camp-followers . They survived The women and babyfat children . Every army seeded the invaded area with women and children .
The bred soldier has to eat a high-carb food frequently : not meat or fat , his body cannot store it . This is the definition of a wheat-eating legionary .
Ho ! Ho! Ho!
The Atkinson diet .
No wonder it does not make sense in evolutionary terms .
Mesomorphic humans have been bred not to transform expensive proteins and fats into bodymass .
The soldier-class were kept on a carbohydrate leash , which could only be supplied by farming .
The Smell of Horses .
Horses exude pheromones that promote body-leanness in humans . This has an obvious advantage to horses . Horses are breeding jockeys .
The time-span is enough : at least 8 000 years . (400 generations)
Because pregnant women cannot ride horses , there was a selection pressure to breed horses who have a pheromone that block female dominance pheromones , especially since females have to weigh more because of fat-reserve considerations .
Outside a farming environment , horses will sculpt their riders as much as the riders are sculpting them .
Small Mongolian ponies , small Mongolians .
This is why alpha-males like horses and horse-dominated societies were able to conquer and keep matriarchies .
Note the effect of the pheromones on women riders . Androgeny .
On males it becomes extreme blockage of oestrogen . It seems like a surge of male hormones , but it is just an imbalance . (If too much male hormones , the men just kill their horses )
This is why the auto-mobile had such a big sociological effect . No horses , so the men became more effeminate .
Want to be Lean and Mean ?
Sniff Horse sweat pheromone .
Perfumiers take note .
The other leg of the human-horse-dog triumvirate .
Dogs accept female pack-leaders and have evolutionary reasons for blocking horse inhibitions of human female pheromones .
While the males are away , the females look after and rely on the dogs .
(The reason why Mongols ride from yurt to yurt: they are too scared of the dogs.)
With dogs around , the male testosterone activity is ameliorated . This is a well known effect , especially if horses are around .
Hence the female love of lap-dogs . They are actually quite ferocious , and exude large amounts of pheromones that soothes the savage male breast .
Your attention is drawn to the Pekinese lapdog , which has had a disproportionately large effect on human history .
If this sounds convoluted , it is because this is exactly how this type of bio-system operates : by inhibitions of inhibitions of inhibitions ,etc .
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com Oct 2011
How to avoid The Tragedy of the Commons .
The Ostrum Game
30 Oct 2011
“One Game shall bind them all .” , ( with apologies to Tolkien)
“This time , we know for sure the grass is greener somewhere”
“A Revolution , any Revolution.”
A Game for Grown-ups .
The Eight Ostrum Design Principles are Meta-rules that generate self-consistent sets of rules that encompasses competition , co-operation , catastrophe , hierarchies and other systems undreamt of , all between discrete , interacting , self-organising systems .
Your avatar can go from SecondLife to Simworld , to War Worlds , to any desired locale .
Reality becomes a subset .
1.An incredible amount of money can be made .While money still has some meaning .
Without too much work . See Para 8 in Appendix A
Each Game Company is a base nested institution .
They bind easily together , releasing a lot of energy and money .
Explosive Feedback Synergism .
A run-up to the Singularity .
2.Feedback between Games and Reality :
The Meta-rules make no differentiation between Game-characters and Real-characters .
Indeed , many Real-characters have been spun into Game-characters , and vice-versa .
Think Sherlock Holmes , MacGyver , Gauss , young Werther etc
See “mirror-neuron networks” , any soap opera , etc .
Real-life problems get treated the same way as Game problems . The more diverse and sophisticated the Game interactions become , the more effect on any real or Game system .
Eventually , they become undistinguishable as technology progresses .
3.The Grass is provably greener somewhere .
Long known as a wishful thinking fallacy , until Ostrum published the Design Principles in 1990 .
This was the trigger event of under-the-surface knowledge about Ostrum Rules building up .
Suddenly , it became possible .
A Phase-change in the noosphere occurred .
It meant that a Disaster of the Commons or an Empire was not inevitable . Grandchildren could survive .
WE CAN MAKE THE GRASS GREENER , EVEN IF WE HAVE TO PAINT IT ONE BLADE AT A TIME .
Enormous tensions began surfacing . These effects are still playing out now .
A really , really major Hysterical Focus started forming , and is still intensifying .
Now , are you surprised that 1990 was the year of huge revolutions , when the USSR collapsed ?
The Ostrum Game beat the Ring of Power .
And you have not seen anything yet .
The pace of Revolutions is intensifying .
A good thing , if Homo wishes to escape extinction .
4.Automating Ostrum Rules :
They might be Meta-rules , but they are still rules .
We can certainly write programs that can serve to guide past most of the pitfalls and suggest alternatives .
5.Multicellular Bodies as Commons :
We can certainly analyze bodies in terms of Commons . The Dear Reader will find many interesting things if he does that .
Note the emphasis on communication .
Talk to your body . Aloud . And listen in the silences in between .
Create a virtual body and note the interactions .
Use the Ostrum Design principles .
It is immediately obvious that humans are then not limited to Real biochemical definitions of personality . The emphasis on communication means that personalities are distributed across Real and Game spaces . The Game space personality segments are only limited by internal non-contradictory rules . That can be done via Ostrum Design principles .
Not exactly instantaneous , but I can intuit that the time can be calculated . It would be less than real time .
The putative developing system would have ethical constraints on abandoning Real-part personalities under Ostrum Rules .
Told you it would be kindler , gentler .
7.Phase Change :
The system has already undergone an irrevocable phase change in 1990 .
You can fast-forward the rest .
8.Did Ostrum know what she was unleashing ?
The Revolutionary aspects , nearly certainly .
In her quiet way , she is one of the greatest Revolutionaries in Homo Sapiens history . Worthy of being called a Matriarch .
The Singularity aspect is more uncertain . She certainly knew that she unleashed major fairness , but the phase-change in the Noosphere I do not know .
Still , a tour-de-force .
How do feel like being a pet of your avatar ?
To quote from Wiki : (comments in brackets are my own ).
“ Ostrom identifies eight "design principles" of stable local common pool resource management:
1. Clearly defined boundaries (effective exclusion of external un-entitled parties;
2. Rules regarding the appropriation and provision of common resources that are adapted to local conditions; (Equal sharing of debts and rewards)
3. Collective-choice arrangements that allow most resource appropriators to participate in the decision-making process; (Consensus decisions-no leveraged hierarchies)
4. Effective monitoring by monitors who are part of or accountable to the appropriators; (Policing)
5. A scale of graduated sanctions for resource appropriators who violate community rules; (Opportunity to learn from mistakes )
6. Mechanisms of conflict resolution that are cheap and of easy access; (Fair and Fast Justice . See how Inquisitorial Justice systems like Chinese , French or Sharia does it.)
7. Self-determination of the community recognized by higher-level authorities; (Autonomy within clearly defined levels . Something like a Federation.)
8. In the case of larger common-pool resources,organization in the form of multiple layers of nested enterprises, with small local CPRs at the base level. (Clear and quick relations with others. A potential sticky point with states.)
Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action Ostrom, Elinor, Cambridge University Press, 1990 “
The most important book in the Twentieth Century .
Try to read it .
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com “Orders of Randomness 2” Aug 2008 and other related posts .
Steering Randomness is equivalent to manipulating Quantum states in the old nomenclature .
Orders of Randomness 2
15 Aug 2008
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : “Orders of Randomness”
I have been requested to expand a little on orders of Randomness and what it means .
Please note that human endeavours at this date use only randomness of the order of flipping a coin ( Beth(0) )
Aleph is the first letter of the Hebrew Alphabet . It was used by Cantor to denote
Classes of Infinity (ie Aleph(0) for Rational numbers , Aleph(1) for Irrational Numbers , etc
Beth is the second letter of the Hebrew Alfabet . It means “House”
I will first repeat the derivation of Orders of Randomness from http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : “Orders of Randomness” because it is so important .
First , simple Randomness .
Flip of a coin .
Heads or Tails . 0 or 1
Flip an unbiased coin an infinite number of times ,write it down below each other and do it again .
All possible 0 and 1’s
An example : Beth(0)
Flips(1) 0,1,1,1,1,… etc
Flips(2) 0,1,1,1,0,… etc
This describes all possible states in a delineated binary universe .
“delineated binary” means a two sided coin which cannot land on it’s side .
Now draw a diagonal line from the top left of Flips(1) to Flips(infinity) .
At every intersection of this diagonal line with a horizontal line , change the value .
The Diagonal Line of (0,1)’s is then not in the collection of all possible random
Horizontal coin-Flips(x) .
This means the Diagonal Line is of a stronger order of randomness .
This is also the standard proof of an Irrational Number .
This is the standard proof of aleph numbers .
Irrational numbers ,etc
Since any number can be written in binary (0,1) , we can infer that the order of randomness is the same as aleph numbers .
This means we can use number theory in Randomness systems .
Very important .
Google Cantor (or Kantor)
Define coin-flip Randomness as Beth(0) , analogous to Aleph(0)
Then we have at least Beth(1) , randomness an order stronger than flipping a coin .
Then we can theorize Beth(Omega) <->Aleph(Omega) .
Cardinal Numbers .
The cardinal number is the index x of Aleph(x) .
Cantor proved that
Aleph(n+1) = 2 ^ Aleph( n )
Where n is the cardinal number of the infinity .
Tying them together :
He also proved that
P(A) = 2^ n
Where A is any set , P(A) is the PowerSet of A and n is the cardinal number of set A
Thus , Cardinal Number of P(A) =(n+1)
The PowerSet of A = the Set of all subsets of A .
This sounds fancy , but it is simply all the different ways you can combine the elements of set A . All the ways you can chop up A .
You can see it easily in a finite binomial expansion (1+1)^n = P(A) = 2^n
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com : “Infinite Probes”
There we also chop and dice , using infinite series .
Can you see how it all ties together ?
Why 2 ?
This derives from the Delineation Axiom . Remember , we can only talk about something if it is distinct and identifiable from something else . This gives a minimum of 2 states : part or non-part .
That is why the Zeta-function below is described on a 2-dimensional plane , or pesky problems like Primes always boil down to 2 dimensions of some sort .
This is why the irrational numbers play such an important part in physics .
Z=a+ib describes a 2-dimensional plane useful for delineated systems without feedback systems
Its in the axiom of Delineation , dummy .
But we know that Russell proved that A+~A
The easiest way to see it is in Bayesian systems . If Beth(x) systems are included , Bayesian systems become orders of magnitude more effective .
Life , civilization and markets are such . See below .
Conservation Laws :
By definition , these can always be written in a form of
SomeExpression = 0
Random (Beth(0) Walk in Euclidean 2-dimensions
This is a powerful unifying principle derived from the Delineation Axiom .
In Random Walk the Distance from the Center is = d * (n)^0.5 . This is a property of Euclidean systems .
(Where d = step , n=number of random beth(0) steps)
Immediately we can say that the only hope of the Walker returning to the center after an infinity of Beth(0) steps is if d ~ 1/(n)^0.5 . This is the Riemann Hypothesis .
Now , see a Universum of 2-dimensional descriptors z=a+ib
Sum all of them . Add together all the possible things that can be thus described .
This can be done as follows :
From z=a+ib Raise both sides to the e
e^(z) = e^(a) . e^i(b)
Raise both sides to the ln(j) power where j is real integers.
j^(z) = j^(a) . e^(b/ln(j))
Now , sum them :
Zeta=Sum of j^(z) for j=1 to infinity
Now we extract all possible statements that embody some Conservation Law . Beth(1)
This means that Zeta is zero for the set of extracted statements if and only if (b/ln(j)) is of the order of Beth(0) and a=(-1/2)
The above is a definition of a tensor for a discontinous function .
Riemann’s Zeta function.
This can describe any delineated system .
If Zeta = 0 , conservation laws apply .
Zeta = Sigma(1/j )^z for j=1,2,3,…,infinity and z=a+ib , where z is complex and i =(-1)^0.5
The z bit is in two dimensions as discussed above .
This function has a deep underlying meaning for infinite systems .
If you unpack the Right-Hand side on a x-yi plane you get a graph that looks like a random walk .
If every point is visited that a random walk would visit over infinity (ie all) , without clumping , then Zeta can only be non-trivially zero if a=(-1/2) .
Why (x – yi) plane ? See “Why 2 “ above . The system is fractal . Two dimensions are necessary in any delineated system .
Remember , randomwalk distance from origin = step*sqrt(number of steps) .
So if the steps = 1/ ( sqrt(number of steps) ) , then the Origin might be reached if and only if a= -1/2
This is easily proven .
If a= - 1/2 , then b can be any real function . This would include Beth(0) and Beth(1) , but not higher orders of beth .
If a= -1/2 and b is an unreal number , then a cannot be equal to -1/2 anymore . Conservation cannot hold at any level .
Conservation Laws can only hold for Beth(0) and Beth(1) systems .
This is forced by the two dimensions of delineation .
Mathematically , this means that Beth(2+) systems of feedbacks can only be described in terms of attractors or/and fractal systems (ie not in isolation)
Physically , conservation of energy and momentum need not hold for Beth(2+) systems .
This has an interesting corollary in decryption (unpacking) . A Beth(2) mind unpacking Beth(0) or Beth(1) encryption is functionally equivalent to Non-Conservation of Energy .
Some other consequences :
If a< -½ , then Riemannian Orbitals are described . Beth(any) Also described as nuclei , atoms . If a> -½ , then a diffuse cloud is described . Beth(any)
Also described as magnetic effects .
What does this mean?
Present technology uses Beth(x) technology in a rather haphazard way .(Quantum physics) .
A better understanding will bring about a sudden change in capability .