Sunday, November 09, 2014

Slingshot Atmospheric Rivers

Slingshot Atmospheric Rivers .

Andre Willers
9 Nov 2014
Synopsis :
Atmospheric Rivers can slingshot around very low depression systems , picking up energy from the jetstreams and dumping extremely large masses of water and snow into lower latitudes .
Discussion :
0.A broader discussion of slingshots and barycenters can be found at

1.Important Concepts for storms :
1.1Extratropical storm system conversion
A tropical hurricane or typhoon moves into colder latitudes and loses energy .
But , it connects to low-level atmospheric rivers and high-level jetstreams and picks up energy from both .

1.2 Bombogenesis
The hot core of the typhoon converts to a cold core very rapidly , as very cold air from the jetstreams spiral in . If an atmospheric river is nearby (as it usually is) , enormous amounts of latent energy is released . This creates  a sudden vortex of very low pressure , creating very high winds .

2.The Slingshot :
The low-pressure vortex acts like a gravitational mass in orbital mechanics .
A characteristic of atmospheric rivers is that they are delineated . So some atmospheric rivers feed the vortex , while others a bit further away slingshot around it .
This dumps billions of tons of water , snow and slush  into the lower latitudes .
The North American Continent has suffered numerous episodes .
Enormous floods , followed by ice-ages , then floods again as the ice-dams collapse .
3.Slingshots :
This is a very well-understood phenomenon  . 
How to steer an atmospheric river is discussed in

So , we can steer atmospheric rivers to slingshot around storms like 2014Nuri and rain a lot further south .
The physics is easy . The politics ?

4. Is there any chance of an atmospheric slingshot with the present (Nuri Nov2014) system ?
From the old Mark One eyeball , I count at least 6 atmospheric rivers inside the system .
Look at the dark breaks . The only thing strong enough to maintain some semblance of identity is an atmospheric river .
So , using our old 1/3 principle , we can expect about 2 ArkStorms from this episode .

This is thumbsuck , but my closest estimate is one in Western California  and another on a more west-to-east direction over the great lakes . (Where did they originally get their water from ? . Also those flood gorges towards the Atlantic might be a recurrent thing)

5.Climate warming .
Another of Gaia’s little surprises .
Slingshot distribution of atmospheric rivers slows global warming , by distributing tropical heat in a positive feedback fashion .
The hotter it gets , the more atmospheric rivers and tropical storms converts to bombogenesis . This means more atmospheric rivers cool down , then slingshot back towards the equator .
A sort of planetary air-conditioning .
This can be steered by humans .

However , it also means extreme rains .

6. Southern Hemisphere .
This is different from the northern hemisphere .
There is much more water .
So , a rough sketch would be atmospheric rivers slingshotting around Antarctic bombogenesis events , then moving northwards over open ocean faster than rotation .
It means that the river picks up speed in spin direction .
The ArkStorms will then be inclined to hit the western coasts of the southern continents .
See , where the western rainfall was significantly higher .

But I might be wrong and this picture is what is waiting .
Not exactly what Noah had in mind .

7.Testable .
This is in direct contradiction of present climate warming models , where dessication occurs from west to east .
So , it can easily be tested . Feed atmospheric river slingshots into the models , and see what happens .
The geological evidence shows flooding , but it does that anywhere . If you wait long enough , it will flood .

8. Pre-emptive slingshots :
Air condition the whole planet .

And so it slings along .

Appendix A

Meteorological ‘bomb’ is about to go off in the Bering Strait

less than 50%
Fans of The Deadliest Catch know that the Bering Strait isn’t exactly a tranquil region, but what is about to happen may set a new all-time record for the strongest storm the area has seen since at least the 1950s.
In other words: Fishermen need to get the heck out of there. Now.
SEE ALSO: How Typhoon Nuri is changing the weather forecast in North America
Computer models have been signaling for days that the remnants of what is now Typhoon Nuri — once the second-most intense tropical cyclone on record this season — will undergo a transition into an extratropical storm system as it moves northeast, away from Japan, over the next few days.
As it does so, the storm will likely encounter an unusually intense North Pacific jet stream that is in a favorable position to give it a major injection of intensity — like a storm that drinks a six-pack of Red Bull.
Other factors will also aid in intensifying the remnants of Nuri.

….The sudden deepening of an extratropical low pressure system is referred to as “bombogenesis,” and this storm looks like it will meet the criteria for that, and then some.
…in part by rendering alternate airports in Alaska useless, as they are buffeted by hurricane force winds of nearly 80 miles per hour or greater. Seas are forecast to build to at least 50 feet in the southwest Aleutians, and potentially higher in the Bering Strait.


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